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What Goes Up…
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What Goes Up…

by The MoleNovember 29, 2017

It’s FOMC day and after Bill Dudley apparently muttered something about Bitcoin crypto currencies across the board exploded higher. BTC right now is pushing > 11,200 and there’s no doubt that it’ll be at 20,000 by the end of the day and 1,000,000 by Friday. Alright I may be using a bit of sarcasm here but I assure you that it’s not out of butt hurt (as I’m still holding a few coins) but due to tragically being equipped at birth with common sense and even worse, a relatively functioning memory of financial and human history. I know, it sucks to be me but someone’s got to carry that burden.

And yes I do in fact do birthday parties but not in clown suits, so don’t get your hopes up GoldGerb. Now, I’m don’t even know if anyone is going to be reading this post today as everyone is probably too busy buying BTC at 11,000, right?

Alright, enough with the crypto bashing. Y’all know I’m on board with crypto but I’m definitely not on board with buying into exponential charts. Because there’s not enough vaseline on this great earth to soothe the latex claden finger of God that is heading toward the crypto market. It’ll be ugly and painful, but for a few stainless steel rats with foresight and a bit of patience it will be most glorious.

2017-11-29_SPXA50_SPXA200

Now since it’s FOMC day let’s do a quick momo update, shall we? Equities are clearly jealous of crypto currencies and don’t want to play second fiddle when it comes to short squeezes. Breadth on the SPX remains in elevated territory but by no means does it signal a reversal on the horizon. Plus the most recent one was simply ignored.

2017-11-29_CPCE

The CPCE has been locked in a small range since the summer, suggesting that the bears pretty much have thrown in the towel at this point. And who could blame them? No worries, eventually there will be a price to be paid but judging by similar conditions throughout the first half of 2015 it seems the current squeeze higher may continue unabated for a while.

2017-11-29_VIX_limbo

The VIX is telling a similar story. My IV expansion chart is showing us in a range comparable to that of 2013 through mid 2014. Meaning no extreme levels, just a slow churn higher without giving the bears anything they could sink their claws into. What we want to see here is a clear breach < -40 followed by a few closes > the 0 mark. Don’t get your hopes up though as it may be a while…

If you’re warmed then join me in the lair for the good stuff…

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • HD

    Mole, the $SPX wave in 2013-2014 highlighted on your VIX chart was 656 points, this wave has currently gone 644 points. Agree on the fractal. There was a 9% correction that followed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..latex claden finger of God
    I don’t whether to laugh hysterically, or stand back for the incoming lightning strike.
    sacrilege!

  • Ronebadger

    Re: Bitcoin – I get the idea of “digital currency”. I get how dollars, yen, euros, etc. are created. How is bitcoin created? Who is making money off of bitcoin creation? Are they still making it…is there a finite number of bitcoins?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Google is your friend. Digital research my friend.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTxmR0n6sCc

  • ridingwaves

    well, the first fractal ended in July after starting in April, so their is plenty of bull meat left if so…

  • ridingwaves

    fed day has officially been changed to “knock my precious down day”
    but the widow maker is alive…..

  • HD

    good point. The months are off but the time duration of wave is similar.

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    maybe the problem with Gold is like Sampson.
    Plenty of muscle, but a lack of hair.
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2028707ebf6f80492f23d899e0adc28f32e181b3afab1261f81f86913f5b24d4.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Forget the videos – go right to the source and read the white paper:

    https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Badger can read. Julie, that’s up for debate.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why do you think I live in a lair?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Feisty today!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Assuming it’ll be seasonal – we shall see.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    WTH?! A *red* day?

    must. prepare. crow pie in front of Julie.
    😉

    [QQQ]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90081101788

  • ridingwaves

    here comes CL to the rescue

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    amazing.
    did the futures rollover last night?, there’s a gap on FINVIZ.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

  • Tomcat

    $NG has been and will continue to be the gift that keeps on giving. And actually I am of the strong belief that if you go out far enough on the curve, we should see a print >$4 in the next couple of years. No joke $4, may even be conservative. Patience will be key!

  • Ronebadger

    Thanks guys, for the bitcoin info…I will digest soon

  • saltwaterdog
  • Ronebadger

    Badgers can do a lot of stuff…trading well isn’t one of them…but, getting better…learning every day

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    We’re cute…right?

  • Ronebadger

    CRYPTO …yeah, good adjective for it…

  • ridingwaves

    or maybe not….tricky game today with month end….

  • ridingwaves

    thats real conservative, I would say it will happen in next 6 months

  • Tomcat

    I wouldnt bet the farm on that timeframe or any for that matter, but it will be welcomed for sure.

  • Ronebadger

    VIX is snappy today

  • HD
  • BobbyLow

    So Janet’s testimony today is getting the markets primed for the “Real” Fed Day (Rate Announcement) on Weds, December 13th?

  • StockTalker

    Steady as she goes

  • ridingwaves

    I think everyone is selling today and buying bitcoin instead…..to the moon…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Should show a bunch of cheap-power Commie Chinese laughing their heads off.

  • BobbyLow

    Bit Coin is insane but I got a good deal on some Tulip Bulbs and I’m holding them long term instead. :)

  • ridingwaves

    tulips in North Carolina would work I tell ya…:)
    desert folks not so much

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Who knows… at this point I’m simply fading all of this crap out.

  • HD

    The /VX is +$450 per contract from yesterday’s entry. Small barrier triangle measures to 12 above 11.65
    IPA and donut time.

  • ridingwaves

    the right ingredients just need to mix together- they are on the counter now…

  • Mark Shinnick

    The more are created through an algorithm, the most costly becomes their making. Eventually, the processing becomes very electricity-consuming so is only economic with the cheapest power / higher prices.

  • Julie

    GLD My only position still https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f0fa959939af8196c2c7efcf8ca7aa0a41d8b51c622919ecb9644b50ea48fd7.png in the black . No bounce off the lower trend line and lower cloud boundary will exit JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I covered the short miners from yesterday a little while ago.

  • Julie

    Mark GDX Failure at the confluence (1) Upper channel (2) Lower cloud boundary (3) 55 ema and overbought. Could tank more if a bearish close below the lower channel trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d2ff4298ec4bea6a97997fe01469de7e0f5812d0f34be00539c74de7b3559c55.png

  • ridingwaves
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, my models suggest weaker but no genuine edge for the moment.

  • Julie

    Understood Mark
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I get a kick out of the statement that Financial Institutions were reluctant to get involved with Bit Coin because of the nefarious reputation of some of the people and criminals involved with it. So what’s changed now? What a crock of bull shit. Financial institutions getting into Bit Coin could care less where their profit comes from.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    watch what they do, not what they say.

  • Julie

    Taking a small long position GE. Holding the daily 5 ema (18.29 todays low 18.31) Stop 18.10 two https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9f00de951bd984267b0908c33be679d5af12df6411cbe9f884be01c9208b3f7.png cents below the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) which is 18.12 Target the 21 ema and Ichi Cloud baseline (21) 19.18 and 19.10

  • HD

    3 – 6 point rallies today on SPX Sellers should defend 2627 IMO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    That fractal potential thing is pretty slick pattern matching, EZ to appreciate; no doubt many participants take it very seriously, maybe enough to make a difference. BTW, if you posted a chart here I see only blank space.

  • Julie

    Hi GG Another chart GE showing target along with Ichi Cloud baseline (21) and 21 ema. Upper channel and upper downtrend line matches closely with target JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c00260d25a7c9202b9035b0b0939c48698e09d2bcaed158922b4bcc3fef12ab2.png

  • ridingwaves

    I wouldn’t take the chance of being in it just because the bankers want in….no doubt they envy both sides of trade…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what’s the risk-reward?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG A little less than 2 – 1 I know it should be 3 -1
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    okay, my EW skillz may be off, but we should be just about break-even by New Years.
    ;-D

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d5ae0110f42be4912e6c6b69bb37a181da0ea0e105e10b94a4cffdb1861f6169.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    +3, yes, you know it in your heart to be TRUE.

  • Julie

    GG you are correct moving stop up 2 cents below the daily 5 ema
    That will be better risk – reward Thanks GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you still owe me a steak.
    he he.

  • HD

    Oh dang. I did post a chart. I can see it though. Probably discuss. It’s on my Twitter too.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Important make-or-break right here.

  • Tomcat

    Unfortunately, I was never good (or interested) in chemistry. Beyond it being a methane gas, I have no clue what other “ingredients” need to be mixed. Isn’t this all just hot air???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Why are the QQQ’s getting hit so hard, and the other major indexes, not so much?

  • Mulv

    XRT’s up almost 3%?

    Edit: BTC’s down more than 7%?

  • StockTalker

    Has been weak the 2 past days, good indicator.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, saw that so that’s what I figured should be here.

  • HD
  • Julie

    GG Going to watch the QQQ’s at confluence of the (1) minor support (2) lower Bol band (3) 34 ema Breaks lower the going to watch lower horizontal support and rising 55 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/904717a4bd8853da1600723e4c7108a192fc5cb2489767f8ef8bee47c87c754a.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe this reflects some relative flight to perceived quality. In context. its not really that hard.

  • Julie
  • StockTalker

    Gap fill

  • Julie

    Yup Stalker Good Eye Bro !
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Perfect timimg for the bitconned post

  • Julie

    Selling volume spikes can either be a selling climax or an initiation phase. Since today’s strong selling QQQ’s is commencing from an advance IMO an initiation phase (selling) is occurring. I would like to see a weak and low volume bounce from post below with possible targets to a lower high. A lower high is definitely the short. Going to watch the QQQ’s like a hawk
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Beware of recency bias. The selling isn’t really all so strong.

  • HD

    3+ hours defending 2627, I’m doing my part but this is a team effort. No sellers?

  • Julie

    Mark I am going to watch for a bounce from targets listed . Possible even go down to upper boundary of the cloud. If a bounce leads to a weak low and decreasing volume lower high then I will nail it
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    From a patterns point of view, what has usually happened in context of these sorts of days is a early next day retest of the low.

  • Julie

    Mark With the weekly MACD at an overbought level and weekly RSI at 70. IMO the higher probability is for a continued decline to mentioned targets JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/87778d454ba295490e4d04c7b3f4096fe62139ddfbab2e5af289b51ec1877e56.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure. Back when we had a “normal” market, 5% to 10% corrections were common place and necessary to maintain a healthy market. A 10% correction on the NDX would be about 640 points now. A “little” 5% correction would be half of that about 320 points. So 100 Points down ain’t what it used to be. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • TS

    I love reading this blog and the comments section. You all are terrific.

    BTW, Julie, your settings on the 1hr ES Futures chart would have worked beautifully from 11/28 0200 to 11/28 2000 if I could have traded it during those hours. I hope you are still doing well.

  • Julie

    TS I am doing fine Checkout the daily Chart QQQ’s Today a short could have been taken at the decline down thru the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) at 154.90 matching the break of the blue horizontal support line and the lower uptrend line. I missed it today but will nail a weak lower high JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ae903f36790412fdf1dbc3081b2604e209c40e76fd1f41c91064e5ae03b9e90.png

  • TS

    Thanks Julie.

  • Julie

    TS Todays close 153.65 is even below the Ichi Cloud baseline (21) 153.73

  • Mark Shinnick

    …and there is the crux of trading: what indicators and things like it show to everyone, which “everyone knows” …may not be worth knowing to the trader.

  • Julie

    There are always higher highs – higher lows and conversely lower highs and lower lows. Just be on board
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…the degradation of those normal percentages itself may even be following a charitable curve….is my suspicion.

  • Julie

    BL Todays candle QQQ’s is a bearish line strike or bearish belt hold which normally are a very reliable candles
    JULIE

  • Julie

    There were some big players today that took profits QQQ’s which IMO will lead to continued selling as the others start to get scared
    JULIE

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    looks bullish

  • Julie

    GDX Today a gap down below mid channel and 21 ema closing below the lower channel trend line on strong selling volume . The failure at the (1) 55 ema (2) lower cloud boundary (3) near the upper channel line and was overbought.presaged today’s action. Now the MACD is rolling over at a centerline test with Full Stochs 5,3,3 with room to run south before becoming oversold. Not a pretty picture and therefore I am wa https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c93257a2c9e497cf4d60f4b4b2a2727e88db12de95eb06db4cba2ece1473e2ba.png tching my GLD long which I still am in the black. A decline and no subsequent bounce GLD off the lower Ichi Cloud boundary I will exit. Shown GDX Chart JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Great chart GG I hear you loud and clear High volume lows (last week of October) are usually retested. So looking for a retest of October and early November lows. If retested on lower volume and diminishing candles that IMO would be bullish and worth a shot on the long side. Again GG Thanks for your thoughts
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no problem. don’t forget Yen is joined at the hip.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=d1

    it’s been a very long year for the gold bugs.

  • Julie

    Also an inverse relationship with $TNX and the 2 yr – 10 yr yield curve but YES more importantly joined at the hip with the Yen
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You forgot to add ‘and very handsome’! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    all of the above?

  • Julie

    Mole … Chief I am staying away from the cryptos.
    JULIE

  • kim

    what if this is not a correction but a start of a bear trend, something that crypto world doesn’t know yet…

  • HD

    Awesome! Are you trading it? I don’t know anyone who is. Take some zeros off and this is just a $8.50-$11.50 and back to $9 this week. The slope of dope dude tweeted 50 times this week about it. He’s been bearish since $1000 though….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, its still in the same congestion area of a very long time.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nothing would please me more than to see this commie game crash.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, it did complete a objective there so you no doubt saw it. You are SH as usual.

  • Yoda

    This is very bullish news for NG.
    https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2017-11-28-siberia-colder-than-minus-60-degrees-in-november
    What happens in Siberia now, the East coast later it will impact.

  • Yoda

    impecable timing

  • kim

    Yes it’s completely unreal but try short it if you dare, i think you need to load 5 BTC to CME to short bitcoin like a man, in any case crypto market is here to stay :)

  • kim
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’ll all go up in smoke.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCXqbjo6cb0

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I had a really bad night and am not feeling good today. Actually have been a bit on the low end of my biocycle for about a week. So I’m not going to post today, sorry guys. I hope I feel better tomorrow but today I just don’t have it in me :-(

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Fools…. it’s not bitcoin that’s the problem, it’s their fucking leverage. Some people were borrowing money to trade it, I mean WTF! I’m actually surprised it took so long for them to take it up the ….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rest and get well.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh man. I hope it’s not something terminal.

  • Tomcat

    Time to start initiating position in $GDX.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Actually, this guy would have been better off going to Vegas and trying his luck there. At least he might have been able to catch a show and get comped for a few drinks while he was there.

    BTW, hope you feel better soon. :)

  • Tomcat

    Maybe Julie can find some Ichimoku to back me up ;):
    http://schrts.co/WzSw79
    But I prefer the horizontal line @~22.25,
    Square?

  • Yoda

    lulz, geniuses

  • Yoda

    BTC piker vs God

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long tvix 715, super tight.

  • Yoda

    Cue Krampus enters the stage?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (Shhh, don’t give away Captain’s next post.)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Out with some gain…but looking to rebuy with a tight trailing stop until signs of typical vol crushing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe it will dawn upon the the cripto people they really should be trusting stocks after all :)
    All-in capitulation…folks !!! Come-aboard….we’ve been waiting for you :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Or maybe they should learn about position sizing and how to manage a portfolio as opposed to betting all their money on black/white.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Funny thing is that Krampus was practically unknown until just a few years ago. I however grew up in Austria as a young kid and remember those processions in the early 1970s as a small child. Those guys dressed up like Krampus were scary as f….k when you’re only 2 feet tall LOL

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…these are desperate times of extreems, I believe.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There you go – it’s all out there :-)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t know how you do it. I’m sure there is some cringe worthy EW stuff, and maginot lines back in the day.
    but that was then! Transparency!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Check out the video on this Austrian news report:

    http://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/5327375/KrampusLaeufe_Wo-heut-der-Teufel-los-ist

    Scary!!! And they swat at you with their sticks and their chains.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow…seems like both.

    PS, the vol scene pretty delicate right now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gold is Soooo last century.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….and millenniums B4 that like this time really is different.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Naah – not more desperate than when people were losing their asses on tulips. It’s simply human nature: greed gets them every single time. It’s like a button they can’t keep themselves from pressing.

  • HD

    What a rally. When the EOM fellas pile in it can really impulse. From 2557 low $SPX has now rallied (89). Started scaling S 2645 ES and still L VX. It feels terrible.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Imagine… one tulip worth the price of a house.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like a ripe situation for shorting with trialing stops.

  • ridingwaves

    throw in some envy to boot, great recipe for pillaging…

  • ridingwaves

    wondering if that was final beat down of new bulls in NG…some ripe pickings….

  • HD

    Some -D on the charts too if you are an indicator person.

  • HD

    JMHO. It’s a smarter market. Only “professional” traders missed the bitcoin rally this year. Same with equities. Perhaps.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    naty naty, what is this fascination with this witch!?

    3.22 – not a dime more.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17566530919

    ????????!

  • Mark Shinnick

    You know, quite the art to correctly couple all this fog of war with the statistical science.

  • ridingwaves

    weekly per your chart points to 3.30 but it’s sure in a nice place for breakout on your weekly chart….or break down

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    consumption chart.
    steady as she goes.

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2016.05.26/main.png

  • Julie

    Out of GLD this a.m. as it busted down thru the lower trend line and lower cloud boundary for basically a break even. Going to watch GLD at it’s 233 ema No positions currently https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/191bd83a7b55a4158b201fdd94c9fac6fdac02f31ffc40debe36cf0ef29dae5c.png JULIE
    JULIE

  • Julie

    MOLE Take it easy Chief You have been working hard and burning the candle at both ends. Take some time for yourself. Keep us posted Bro.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Geez….so much linear assumption.

  • ridingwaves

    funny the VIX L symbols are not beaten down with this epic thrust…but I have a funny feeling after rollover tonite, they are going to be in some pain…the XIV trade is not done yet…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….pretty damm nice upside bananas that volatility isn’t evidently buying-into. xiv is rather vulnerable here seems to me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Complete euphoria here, wow

  • BobbyLow

    I took a 1/2 R Hit on my long and flipped to short. Gold has been a shitty swing trade for all of November. Tomorrow we begin a new month. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..aaaaand I’m out. Congrats GG.

    Next Thousand Trades!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    …and still a lot of day to go.

  • StockTalker

    Allot of protection being bought.

  • Julie

    BL I messed up … The black candle 4 days prior near the upper channel trend line I should have taken profits. Those candles that gap up and close below their open are cautionary. I still think GLD is a long trade presently and will watch the momentum and selling volume on a retest of the daily 233 ema
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like the Tax package is going to pass. First the Fed gives free money to the financial institutions and now they’ll get to pay less tax on the profits that they earn from the free money. What a deal. . .

  • Mark Shinnick

    No fucking joke what’s going on right now.

  • StockTalker

    I shorted again

  • HD

    Got hosed. Next attempt 2655

  • Mark Shinnick

    Put on a trail, no telling what acceleration might happen.

  • Julie

    Stocktalker BAC mirrors the Banking Index ($BKX) Checkout the volume and candles and today an intraday reversal. The bounce mid November off it’s 55 ema and upper cloud boundary corroborated by volume. Then a consolidation and a gap and go above 28 resistance on a breakout T https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/751830ab0cc0f47e3b2758c112d395fb4165c49f935bbbad577871a39819d156.png hen VROOOM ! JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    It pays to be a debtpusher!

  • ridingwaves

    nice brother Gerb

  • ridingwaves

    so far so good….

    ridingwaves BobbyLow 14 days ago
    that or a december rate hike tantrum, I think we could get a 6 week blow off top rally leading up to your scenario above

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    WTF, VIX up big time. Go Mfer

  • ZigZag

    So much for cheap puts – vix up to 12 with /es up over 1%

  • StockTalker

    Up to no good for sure

  • Julie

    I am still looking for QQQ’s to go down to it’s 34 or 55 ema’s JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0daee56c695b9fd2e30a43abc84865c63c76a857f7b14805b081c702654f6e36.png

  • ridingwaves

    end of the month shenanigans….makes sense to buy some protection here for any move down on rate hike in 15 days…

  • ZigZag

    No selling for 2017 in anticipation of tax “reform” – people loading up on 2018 puts I bet – could be Jan 2016 all over again.

  • BobbyLow

    The DOW and SPX are at new 52 week highs and NDX about 60 points away. This looks the culmination or continuation of the most hated 8 year Bull market in history. They say that ignorance is bliss and in this case, I would have been a hell of a lot better off being a little more ignorant and a lot less smart. :)

  • HD

    Yes please.

  • Julie

    HD Hey Bro Gonna ask NDX you have today’s bounce as a wave 4 ? Just curious
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    From a measuring POV, dow bannanas has met a local objective.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2666 or BUST.
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/money_talks/#comment-3626501361

    actually, another 20 on top of that, maybe. (using the MAR 2017 high)

    -GG

  • Tomcat

    You are too humble!!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    That would be so nice if it came by tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Julie, did the GE long trade die?

  • StockTalker

    MM’s really busting everyone balls today

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG Good Grief I spaced that out ! No I still have a small long stop 18.10. First time for everything Wow !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GIRL you will become a saber tooth cougar.

    http://evilspeculator.com/ten-trading-rules-for-avoiding-extinction/
    #8

    Keep a trading log and monitor your activity on a daily basis. Part of that is to also maintain an equity curve which clearly delineates where your pain threshold is and when you should stop trading.

    The Gerb Frowns Deeply.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG I always get a trade confirmation from Scottrade … I did not get one for GE.??? You and Mole are correct in maintaining a journal. Will do ! Thanks GG. Very stupid of me !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Recommend digital since your are at work & home.

    or a small notebook that doesn’t raise eyebrows.
    😉

  • Tomcat

    How you can “afford” trading on Scottrade based on the volume of trades you are posting here, blows my mind. Maybe their fee structure has changed since I left them 10 or so years ago.

  • ZigZag

    Meanwhile, premium is literally dissolving from /cl options

  • Julie

    Tomcat 5 bucks a trade … I negotiated with the manager and was approved by the home office in St Louis
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    Have you looked into IB? Depending upon the size of your account and trades, it can be a LOT cheaper. and I mean A LOT

  • HD

    Hey bro ette ;). I don’t follow NDX. But this is int iii terminating and iv down to start SPX. I use abc down.

  • BobbyLow

    The market made me humble Tomcat. :)

    I fought the first few years of this rally because “I knew” that what was happening was total bullshit and that I was going to be right no matter what. Then I finally realized that the market is “always” right and it doesn’t matter what I think. I’ve also found that for me what drives the market is not as important as the end results of price and momentum. So I guess what I’m trying to say is that I’ll never be able to outsmart the market and the best that I can do is try to jump on directional rides for smaller time frames.

  • TS

    Yes indeed, Sir Mole. Many apologies!

  • Julie

    Tomcat I have checked out Robin Hood . They have no fees. Check them out. I just received an e mail from them recently http://www.robinhood.com https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1734af52d45b16ecfb877611e04f5b813f60713f8e05389ddad03d69744c15d8.png

  • StockTalker

    Knowing today kind of makes me wonder if Santa will show up.

  • HD

    Liking the levels. Need 2645 support to fail.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep most trading platforms will negotiate fees if you trade enough and I was able to negotiate with Think or Swim a few years ago. BTW, didn’t ScottTrade get picked up by Ameritade which also owns TOS? The reason why I ask is because IMO, TOS has an excellent charting platform. The TOS platform is not the easiest to learn but once I got the hang of it found it to be outstanding.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t we all!?

    http://sidesalad.net/archives/SantaFloat.jpg

    Did anyone spot the second Santa? I thought not.
    {you see what you want to see}

  • Julie

    BL I received a call from Scottrade and the Scottrade – Ameritrade goes into effect March 1 2018
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Cool. I think that’ll mean you’ll have an option to trade through TOS seamlessly if you choose to do so. BTW, IMO, $5 per equity trade is fair. I’ve looked into other platforms and found that in some cases the price per trade was better but the services worse. My only experience with IB was when a friend of mine was using IB and we were both trading Mole’s Crazy Ivan for Forex. We would get the signals at the same time and most of the time I got just as good of fills that my friend did with IB and some times I actually got a better fill. I think with smaller sizes it’s not as big a deal. With larger sized positions IB would have been cheaper with Full Lots but we weren’t trading that kind of size.

  • Julie

    GDX Previous post yesterday outlining https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9492b92294953534de46e398fab00223a8a446a9caca38302f3c203093cb2d8b.png a retest of late October and early November lows. Now occurring. Watching selling volume and momentum (candle ) on retest JULIE

  • ZigZag

    Hmm, I wonder when we can expect the Santa Rally to commence – this one is just not good enough.

  • ridingwaves
  • ridingwaves

    L AKAO S LOD

  • Tomcat

    I missed the first one too…

  • HD

    $SPX. Squint your eyes and look at November chart. Do you see 3 waves down from 2597 and 5 waves up from 2557? Welcome to EW

  • ridingwaves
  • HD

    If I had my way I’d gap this down, leave an island and trapped mf’rs! Evil.

  • HD

    I tried some big waves like that once in Jaco. Kicked my butt.

  • ridingwaves

    Jaco is just too walled up to be fun…..better beachbreak just south at playa hermosa

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you guys need to step it UP.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5cCOI_Lq5w

  • HD

    The sharks didn’t help. I haven’t surfed in a long time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    time check.
    man this last hour has dragged.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Anybody holding AT&T?

    you might want to keep an eye on it. Critical spot IMNSHO.

    [T]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p23005043856

  • ridingwaves

    here we go, the sector I enjoy is about to blow up in December….

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    looks nauseating

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    BIO?

  • ridingwaves

    yep….everything is pointing to a decent bullish move ahead….IBB split is tomorrow, lower entry for the specs there…Blackrock killed any chance of november move up with that split announcement…been chomping on the bit to buy some beat up symbols….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, and a decent short H+S objective abandoned.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    could get some selling tomorrow AM as folks whom are not aware of split think their down 200…waiting to see if that happens, but money was flowing in to beaten up symbols today….somewhat front running a move…
    setting up for inverse h@s

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, I’m outta here.

    for those who think this is the top, or toppy.
    I refer to the BPSPX Five year chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44061635319
    -GG

    EDIT: oh, it you need some kind of envelope, I’ve got one of those too!
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25553354469

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Usually after the first week of December. This is actually rather bullish for late November.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just figured out something cool: Approximating #Fahrenheit to #Celsius is easy by 18 increments: F50/68/86 = C10/20/30 #mathfordummies

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So if you have for example 59 then you know that 50 is 10 C. And that leaves 9 which is 1/2 of 18 and that basically adds another 5C. So 59 is 15 and that’s spot on :-)

    I should really stop taking those meds now…

  • ZigZag

    So I hafta ask, (because you are German after all) – You did get the sarcasm in my comment even though my sarcasm font button wasn’t working, right? (Actually I’m a quarter German myself; my great-grandfather came to America in 1896, but judging by his many careers including Lutheran Pastor, Dachsund importer, motor car dealer and Medical Doctor, clearly had the same ADD that I have.)

  • Yoda

    Much useful. Thanks.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Another interesting point in temperature conversion is that both C and F are the same at -40 degrees. My high school chemistry teacher showed us we could add 40 to the given temp, then multiply by 5/9 or 9/5 depending on direction, then subtract 40 and you’ll have your answer. The trick of course is to remember which fraction to use, 5/9 to go from F to C, and 9/5 to go from C to F.

    Your way may be faster :-)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Phoenix Arizona. 50C.
    half way to boiling water.
    that’s all I need to know!
    😉

    Move back to the States mate, forget the Metric System. ugh.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb