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My Gift To You
106

My Gift To You

by ScottMarch 2, 2012

At this point we have a slow motion meltup which is long in the tooth and we are at major long term resistance. This is a test for the market. Those who tell you “we fall here” or “we go to SPX 1400 now are just full of shit.

There is NO WAY, NO WAY AT ALL OF KNOWING whether this market will pass or fail this test.

What we have here is a POTENTIAL failed retest of the high. I am very uncomfortable with buying a breakout here, not because it will not happen, but because the highest probability outcome after a breakout is a pullback to shake out the weak hands before a powerful upmove. If we go up from here, I’m on alert for a very high probability long signal in approx 2 weeks.

That being said we have an inside day which is also a retest variation sell signal.

Don’t be foolish, WAIT for a breach of the daily $spx lows before you get short. Very tight stop, 1 tick above the daily highs.

You are welcome 🙂

Scott


About The Author
Scott
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks for the post, Scott.

  • Anonymous

    AUDJPY tagged 88, must be what the market was looking for. /DX breakout @79

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy, EUR/USD is on the move – ca. 2:22am EST or 7:22am in London.

  • Anonymous

     Amazing how resilient AUDJPY is right now. WTH is holding this thing up?

  • Anonymous

    Shorting AUDJPY stop above the high:)

  • Anonymous

     yen weakness

  • spicestory

    /ES after hours in Asia is producing a nice ordering set of NLBLs with nearly equal interval
    http://screencast.com/t/ygAovBz8p

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Scott!!!!  As usual, very much appreciated.

  • Anonymous

    yup, looks like AUD/JPY was looking to hit the last stops at 88.

  • Anonymous

    Interestingly enough, we get an inside day on cash SPX but not so on /ES since the high of the day yesterday was above the high of the prior day.  I’m still watching 1365.9 on SPX though.  

  • Anonymous

    excellent, excellent. 

  • Anonymous

    /ES didn’t make a new high – 1377 yesterrday vs 1377.25 on Wed.

  • Anonymous

    also, Europe acting a bit gay today. it’s not pushing higher anymore and this is usually one of the first signs things are going to go down for at least a short period. (this was meant to be a reply to jarbo456).

  • Anonymous

     yep.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    morning rats.
    yesterdays sell off and rebound into close, confirmed my cynicism.  (stick it to the 401k’s EOD)
    and last night closed the inverted T.
    as always, today remains a mystery.

    http://i40.tinypic.com/1255kph.png 
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    haha

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/aa051f3d-9607-4644-807f-66cebf732e08/2012-03-02_0847.png
    depending on the situation, I may only let this run to 86.50. Just went short a hour ago. One lot.

  • Anonymous
  • Schwerepunkt

    Am I correct in saying RTV sell has not triggered yet? We have not breached yesterday’s low on ES. 

  • Anonymous

    you looking at that solid green buy line as a potential bounce area?  thus why you’re shorting with a target just above it?

  • Anonymous

    I’ve heard of cloud computing, this looks like cloud trading.

  • Anonymous

    I think he means no more stops to run above hence price can go down. Market makers probably run it up to clear all stops.

  • Anonymous

    Unreal seeing the amount of strenght in the dollar the /ES only down 5 pts. /HG made a comeback as well.

  • Anonymous

    Correct!

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    And correct!

  • Anonymous

    Go Long for a 2% Pop !

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it pays to watch the T on UUP.

    http://i39.tinypic.com/27xnqyf.png

  • Anonymous

    Who is this? Uncle Benny?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Humm, indeed!

  • Anonymous

    Euro seems to be breaking out downwards here.

  • Anonymous

    I wonder if today will be a boring day.

  • Anonymous

    Nice:)

  • Anonymous

    not to excited as it is. So setting stop loss at b/e.

  • Anonymous

    AUD.JPY breaking some NLSL’s and looks to be making a downward break here.  A fair amount of support right here though.

  • Anonymous

    son of a ***** of course. me not paying attention to EUR/USD like I was two weeks ago. And that was a easy trade it looks like. At this rate Im about to black list AUD/JPY from my trading list. Of course that would mean that it falls out the sky.

  • Anonymous

    This thing should tank, /CL, /HG, /CG, Euro all down.

  • Anonymous

    please do!

  • http://baruchsshoeshineboy.blogspot.com/ Jeffrey Robinson

    Hi,

    I am new to the blog. My particular interests are in alternative market indicators and technical analysis. My goal is to find creative ways to detect market bottoms and tops based on unusual indicators, such as Bernard Baruch’s “shoeshine boy”. When his shoeshine boy gave him a stock tip, he knew to get out of stocks. I may have come up with a new indicator based on recruiter contacts.

    In the past, I had used headhunters and recruiters to help me find a
    job. As a result of the contacts I made, I will occasionally get emails
    from recruiters checking in with either a new job opportunity or just to
    see what my employment status is. My thinking is that recruiters only
    contact people out of the blue for two reasons:

    1. They are short of business and are desperately looking for new people to fill the few positions they have.

    or

    2. There are way more openings than applicants, so they are contacting
    people from the past to try to fill these open positions and make as
    much as they can as quickly as possible.

    Since there could be underlying economic or market signals tied to the
    appearance of an email from a recruiter, I was interested to see if any
    patterns appeared if I plotted the times a recruiter contacted me on a
    chart of the S&P.

    Please find out the results on my blog. I hope to post here in the future if I notice any other unusual market tells. Thanks.

    http://baruchsshoeshineboy.blogspot.com/

  • Anonymous

    The market has spoken, but do you speak Greek?

  • Anonymous

    You know what I mean. The worse example is when I started to long eur/jpy January. Yea I made a profit. But I was done with it at 102. Didn’t pay attention to it anymore. ka boom. OH well, I dont need to let that get in my head.

  • Anonymous

    hmmm just does not want to stay down.

  • Anonymous

    Backtest complete

  • Anonymous

    If you would like amydala7 banned, please press the like below.  I have tired of his “drive by” useless posts.  If even he had posted a single useful post in the last twenty that I’ve seen, I wouldn’t be appealing to have this done.  He’s nothing more than ugly graffiti on an otherwise beautiful building.

  • Anonymous

    Picking up SPY OTM put just in case:)

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Think that we just need to be patient now, it will give us an indication soon. Cerrently short a number of components and will add on a break of that /ES 1356.

  • Anonymous

    /ES hourly 8 am eastern inside bar continuation failed
    but has reversed
    Now looking for a breach of its 1369 low

  • Anonymous

    I dont want to sound like i’m amygdala-less, but i think we could equally make highs before going down – im long

  • Anonymous

    Long in the tooth? JK:)

  • Anonymous

    Im long Colgate 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Sym triangle on the 5 min, should know soon. Looks like a larger one on the hourly as well.

  • Anonymous

     or….it could just be a spurious relationship (not enough data, because it is only based on one guy getting calls from a recruiter)  just MY thoughts…but interesting…keep us posted with that

  • Anonymous

    Bottom hourlyZL channel over last two weeks still diverting….

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I put my longs back on to neutral buoyancy.
    THE BPSPX was not bearish.  and Scotts post are self explanatory.

  • Anonymous

    Ignition;0

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/b05e2ce7-7cb7-487f-8433-ea298bacfe7c/2012-03-02_1111.png
    GBP/USD seems to be getting interesting. The only the I find uncomfortable about it is the sheer amount of shorts still in.

  • Anonymous

    yeah…sentiment is still pretty bearish, but looks as though they did a real good job of clearing out stops…next upward stop on this train is 1.61.

  • Anonymous

    and that is what is so troubling about aud/jpy. It has that look of silver. Up Up UP then ka boom. 

  • Anonymous

    Take a look at this weekly chart. This looks like rejection at the 50-day SMA and we dropped a solid 150 pips from there. We found daily support today, but will in all likelihood paint a bearish engulfing candle. I think a bounce is more likely right here. If we drop lower, there’s a daily NLSL waiting at 1.5810.
    On the other hand, the Dollar has broken the daily resistance levels outlined by Mole a few days ago which means that we’re probably going to 79.70-79.90. It even broke heavy weekly resistance

    I don’t think the trend is clear at this point. Readings on the equity side are still massively overbought on the medium to long term, though we seem to have found short term support.
    So, either the Dollar got ahead of itself and will fall back below all that broken resistance and show us a fakeout or equities are behind and will start catching up by dropping. The long term readings (especially VIX/VXO) suggest the latter, but those have been extreme for weeks and months now without anything meaningful happening to the downside.

  • Fibz

    I still get contacts from them every day. Seems impossible to remove myself from some of their lists.

  • Anonymous

    They’re cheap. I’ve stocked the cellar full of qqq lottery tix.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, short that instrament as well. If the bootom falls Naz should go KABOOM!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    If we are going to bounce this is the place.

  • Anonymous

    very good! Thanks

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/64dee515-afc4-4822-bde3-1c9760d62397/2012-03-02_1209.png
    Since Im pretty tired of being the sucker in my own idea of sucker move. I decided to take profit here. But I will place another order  at 87.40.

  • Anonymous

    It will be a slow bleed:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    did you get a trend alert?
    come on…fess up
    😉

  • Anonymous

    VIX not showing much today?

  • tradingmom

    Start watching out for the slingshot long possibility.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/cd7cfaec-e5c4-40ef-992a-630076f0fe95/2012-03-02_1225.png
     not overly excited. And if we do not see some follow through. My new target for a correction will be 1340.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Yep , here also. The new shorts Will be tested

  • Anonymous

    Last time i asked such (just jokingly) questions, Mole was on verge of banning me..

  • Joe_Jones

    I’ll tell you at 3.59 pm
    😉

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    Rut triggered sell with break of the flag pattern.  my tza buy at 19.50 triggered.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/4fe66793-2e86-46f5-b39c-f10e52ead3bf/2012-03-02_1243.png
    And finally the long term SPX chart. The middle line in the giant yellow oval is only a target if volatility returns with a vengeance. It has been a long time since I could find one with confidence. So I will look for the 1340 handle to break. That is where I will go short first time and plan to take profit at 1300. If that holds correction has came and went. If not 1225 comes into play IMO. I will start becoming more bullish at those levels.

  • Anonymous

     I’m with you

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    anyone see a high print of 137.77 on their screen, just now?

  • Anonymous

    Don’t see a div yet, although anything could happen.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    now, lets see if we can manage our profit or if it turns into fair dust 🙂  

  • Anonymous

    Now you got it!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh, I remember now!
    neverMIND.

  • Anonymous

    Taking profit on the puts here!

  • Anonymous

    About time!

  • Anonymous

    holding puts for more than four hours …. you will need to see a doctor in these times…

  • Anonymous

    do not have a record of that

  • Anonymous

    Nah dont see it.

  • Anonymous

    SPX tagged the 10ma on the 5min, could be it:)

  • Anonymous

    No kidding, although we may be in that environment soon:)

  • Anonymous

    I think you got away, under the radar 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Boring action everywhere and no shares to short SCEI.

  • Anonymous

    Puts back on:)

  • Anonymous
  • seek_truth

    not sure it this will be note worthy but in the last half hour FAZ has gone from lagging behind /ES on correlation all day to now leading it by a little. meaning new strength in FAZ is not yet being reflected completely as weakness in /ES

  • Anonymous

    How exactly did we miss that inside day setup? (I’m guilty as well)

  • Anonymous

    I feel a new post coming….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    wanker 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Its my only claim to prediction 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We only have you to blame.

  • Anonymous

    zero showed a bit of a positive divergence this am on the 5 min chart – always noting that the signal strength has been pretty weak by and large recently with this slow motion melt up.  So far at least a stronger close looks marginally more likely than a weak one.  That and a dollar will get you….

  • Anonymous

    That’s strange, I vaguely remember paying this blogger guy for doing this kind of job. 😛