My Sincere Apologies

I feel rather ashamed today as apparently my inherent failings have finally caught up with me. And frankly speaking – after years of mindless chatter it was just a matter of time.

Let’s take the ES futures for example – yesterday I proposed a strong possibility for a bounce at 1380 due to a gaping volume hole looming below. Well, instead the spoos bounced at 1380.5 – I missed it by a whopping half handle. Unforgivable – and that’s being kind!

Then there was the AUD/JPY – you may recall me suggesting support near 85. In reality we turned at 85.16 – the Mole missed it by 16 pips, which is almost unfathomable and where I come from they take people out at dawn with blindfolds for less than that.

Frankly I have no idea how my subscribers continue to put up with me – week after week, month after month. After all there are many market megalomaniacs out there, some of whom regularly miss reversals by tens or hundreds of handles. I guess I’ll just have try harder and in the interim humbly ask my intrepid readers to tolerate my daily ramblings.

Okay, enough with the self deprecating cynicism – I’m starting to get on my own nerves. That was a sweet little bear trap this morning and if you were a Zero sub then you probably hopefully saw it coming miles away. If not then I recommend you spend the weekend watching some of my session wrap up videos which I consider the best S&P futures trading bootcamp available. And you may enjoy the tunes. Then again, I am a man of simple pleasures.

NZD/USD – I suggested a long near 0.805 (to the subs) yesterday and if you took it then you’re looking pretty right now. Yes, money makes you irresistible, big boy! Just ask your mother.

My AUD/USD stop was touched as it decided to reverse course and I’m back long again with a stop slightly below that NLSL.

EUR/JPY – yesterday I compared it with a stuntman falling into a stack of cardboard boxes. And the analogy wasn’t that far off as it bounced right back with all limbs attached.

And as promised I not only held my EUR/USD position but actually added a few once it pushed back above its 25-day SMA. The chart says that I added near the NLBL – my mistake – what I mean to say before I slipped on this Freudian banana was that the NLSL held up today and thus increased the odds for a push higher.

And here’s the one that got away. Yesterday ZB (30-year treasury futures) pushed into their NLBL. Unfortunately I didn’t see it and neither did any of you toddlers. Which means we all missed out on today’s ramp-a-candle. As I said – I only have myself to blame – but it’s good to see those Net-Lines working their magic over and over again (even when we rats aren’t paying attention).

Have a good weekend ;-)

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, March 23rd, 2012 at 2:10 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Anonymous

    Ummm Mole – I think you meant NZD/USD in the first chart =P

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    tar and feathers for the Mole!

    http://i42.tinypic.com/34pnyo6.jpg

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    niiiiiiiiiice

  • Anonymous

    Trying a short on AUD/JPY. Could have a VWAP test in store and failed to break that 5m NLBL cluster + those ZFX signals.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    if a T fails to break to a low (& stick), it must go up.
    we’ve crossed the descending red fib line.
    http://i43.tinypic.com/wuo6s3.png 
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    If I had mind control of you Mole. I would turn this place into Noah’s ark. Give a warning to my friends and family to join and shut this place off from the outside world. ;)  I really wanted that 85.00. That would have caused me to buy at the .50 handle on the way back up.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Would you go long, based on this, Mr.T?

  • Anonymous

    /ES with triple div. at HOD. If we could get some volume, we could see that VWAP test.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    only if I had a current position, and was a bit greedy. yes.
    granted the T hangs into this evening. so it’s a Sunday thang.

    EDIT: the trick is to get above 1394 for short covering surprise/finish.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I can’t get away with anything around here!

  • Anonymous

    /SI turning shy off the top of a channel I drew, in the image. Also a little above the 100h SMA. Not sure if enough reason to exit the long or not. Anyone has an opinion on /SI?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I haven’t laughed that hard in a while:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zvl9N9GdraQ&feature=youtu.be

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    huge volume on the ES 1320 puts that expire in 1 week…..

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    I was just watching that! It is funny!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Olive Oil.
    I love it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t see it…

  • Fibz

    thanks for the heads up, SPY options for next week are oversold.

  • Anonymous

    WE LAZY? NO WE RESTING!

  • Anonymous

    Damn my comments are like the TVIX premium… they keep vanishing. Whats up with that? Frustrating to write a long one and have it vanish twice.

  • Anonymous

    I exited my long from today under that sma, my target and my time frame.
    Volume was trending down all day as the price rose
    But it appears to be accumulated on the dips
    So that’s what I am looking to do
    Like yesterday when it dropped into 31.09
    And I was cursing a bit even though I was out. That’s one of my
    buy signalsl :)

  • Anonymous

    Nice daily on GBPAUD today

  • Anonymous

    Strong close in equities today. Hammer candle on the SPX. More short-term upside seems likely on Monday. Not much space left, though, as the weekly Bollingers are at 1423.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m long that one.

  • Anonymous

    This looks bullish also, unfortunately for bears who may have to wait a while.  Another small ‘correction’ this week that was also burned off by time:

  • Anonymous

    Sunday overnight perhaps is good for a high then drop, like three nights this week, and from about the same price range :)
    Credit is still indicating the equities down move has some more legs IMO,
    after action in TBT, JNK, HYG, and treasuries

  • Anonymous

    omg that’s hilarious mole..

  • Anonymous

    just did a quick run through of my “end of day” Renko charts of the indexes and various derivative charts I follow.  With a tiny minority of exceptions, all are looking rosy and pink, reaching for the skies etc.  A small handful of outliers, including the “over 50 MA” charts which show a bit of lack of breadth and TLT (as well as CRB:TLT) and $TED which are showing glimmers of a bearish spring.  Be catching falling knives (or rising ones, I guess) to call this a ripe place to enter shorts.  $VIX in particular is falling deep into complacency territory.  

  • Anonymous

    Take a bow sir :-)

  • Fibz
  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/1a3d5e9f-7e4b-4669-84a1-e223093a4c9c/2012-03-23_2338.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/5b0e43f6-ee01-485a-9f69-62d674416531/2012-03-23_2339.png
    some serious resistance up ahead it seems. And to be honest I think there is easier money to be made if both of these just shoot down. If you look a the white areas top and bottom, you will see that the action in the tape looks pretty erratic. The AUD/JPY especially. If the tape does not drop lower for a correction I may call it quits for the rest of spring. And come back in summer. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    everybody’s focused on the price of the SPX….
    how about the value?

    me thinks it’s due for a smack.
    http://i43.tinypic.com/22jhl.png 
    support becomes resistance and all that

    have a relaxing Spring weekend.
    -DG

  • Joe_Jones

    another grreaattt chart

  • Anonymous

    Good point about creating weatlh. No, BUT I heard we are creating j.o.b jobs

  • Anonymous

    Perhaps someone could help me out here…

    Setting stops have never been a problem for me…but the monkey wrench that gets thrown in the clockwork is when we get close to NLBL or NLSL. For instance, if you were short the AUD/USD, your stop should have been above the NLSL at 1.0422 before stopping out. Like I went short at 1.041, and had set a stop at 1.046…which obviously got triggered…
    But that same line also indicates where one would reverse their position to a long one and at that point go long with a stop slightly below the line. But at the same time, if the thing goes back below that NLSL, are we supposed to go back short or what?How should one manage those stops (in terms of pips) so as to not constantly get shaken in an out of the trade?

  • Fibz

    speaking of jobs, interesting article on ZH illustrating how the real economy is diverging from the market.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jp-morgan-finds-obama-and-us-central-planning-has-broken-economic-virtuous-cycle

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have not laughed so hard since I watched that Greek Borat clip:

    http://i.imgur.com/BiTmJ.jpg

    (my apologies in advance to any female readers)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It sometimes takes some finesse – not going to sugar coat it. And I have been thrown off the horse a few times. It also depends on the setup – there are often some I do not post because they are range based and the possibility of getting whipsawed and stopped out to death is high. The setups I post have a high possibility of ‘breaking out’ – but of course that does not always happen. I think you’d all agree however that one or two course corrections are the max we usually see with the setups I propose.

    Personally I do not take a third trade – it has bitten me in the ass sometimes (i.e. the bitch moved in a big way after shaking me off) but it’s a personal decision. It’s too easy to make it a ‘revenge trade’ after two stop outs and I rather keep a cool head and focus on more promising setups.

    Hope this helps a little.

  • Anonymous

    This thing is starting to resemble May 2011, when it topped and went into a narrow range market for 2 months, where distribution took place.

    I was checking DAX (sorry, no charts, because of some problems, but you can check it out yourselves) and there are big divergences everywhere – new market highs with significantly lower RSI, MACD etc tops… And DAX and Europe were the leading signs of market trouble for the last year or so.

    And there are those swings, which usually indicate topping process, where market falls and then slowly works its way higher, usually over night or in abrupt and swift bounces off the lows, then falls again… in a narrow range (ie – the doji candles).

    Plus, of course, the sentiment… The only thing holding it up seems to be the momentum.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the response! I’ve totally struck out on third trades and have made the personal rule not do that third one anymore.

    I guess it nags me in the head when I start asking myself – did I set my stop too tight near that key level I should’ve reversed or did I set that stop too wide and not reverse my direction early enough given that Net Line.So I guess the follow up question is – do Net Lines make you change your usual stop-loss philosophy. Normally I’ll just say – max I’m willing to risk on the trade, translate to pips and set. But once those key lines are there, I also start thinking, how far beyond this key level to I let run before flipping this trade the other way…I guess experience is where this probably boils down to…

  • Anonymous

    I see your point.  Given that $Gold is actually hitting a rough patch of its own that could see it shave another $100 or so off its current price, $SPX would have to fall proportionally faster to stand still (or breach resistance, of course).  Interesting chart at any rate – one I haven’t looked at in a while.  Thanks.

  • Schwerepunkt

    LOL!  I’d like to know where he “published” that remark. Was it a peer-reviewed scholarly publication?

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    keep an eye on the lower bollinger,
    until then..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LrotDbi3d4

  • Anonymous

    SKEW has been chopping around like crazy lately

  • Anonymous

    With Prechter, its always a case of strawP3erry jam tomorrow!

    I would stick with Mole’s just-in-time, in-line, real-time, actionable analysis, even if its occasionally off by one or two Pfennigs :-)

  • Anonymous

    Maule, Chile just got hit by a 7.2. 

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/region/S_America.php

    AUDNZD popping up a bit here.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    /ES T update.
    we’re you a bit greedy? ..scoundrels!
    http://i40.tinypic.com/x5a52u.png 
    -DG

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No shit – I was actually planning on going to the Maule region this year.




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