Naughty or nice?

So far, there have been 2 camps divided as to whether intermediate wave 4 was going to trace out a triangle, or whether it was doing something different.  The triangle case has been beaten pretty badly today, but it will stumble back into the ring tomorrow and the next day until one count is finally knocked out.

Mole has been laying out some STRONG groundwork for the bearish case.  Some of these indicators are showing such complacency that I wouldn’t hesitate to call minor wave 2 of intermediate wave 5 complete at this juncture.  If that were the case, then the next move down would be minor wave 3 of intermediate wave 5.  If wave 5 is in fact unfolding, and if it is NOT unfolding as an ending diagonal, then this next decline will be the best place to make profits on a bearish move for the next 6 months, maybe longer, which is why I don’t want to get sucked into ANY bullishness.

That said, I am going to label the $INDU as an ending diagonal (to be cautious) with the intermediate 4th wave triangle being my alternate until I can COMPLETELY be sure that it is off the table.  It will also, likely, be difficult to determine this with certainty until we are back to normal volume in the markets, but given the OVERWHELMING amount of bearish evidence, I will be watching any drop with an eagle eye, and any rally with scrutiny…

I talked last week about the 4 horsemen of the NASD-Apocalypse.  This weak, it appears that 2 out of 4 have begun there descent into the Abyss.  Ironically, RIMM, the leader to the downside last week, it being the laggard to the upside this week, but I imagine that will soon change.

GOOG:

AMZN:

AAPL:

I would also like to mention that Ag and energy (coal) names are dropping like flies… CF is down 25% in 4 days.  POT is down about 20% in the same timeframe…  A previous fav of mine, GMXR, took at 13% hit today.  And CNX (another coal name) is down 30% in 4 days…  Keep an eye on these guys, as the are tossing out home-runs left and right.

That is going to be it for tonight, as X-Mas season is now the foremost thing on everyone’s mind.  The audience here has cut down dramatically, and we applaud those of you still with us.  We only wish that we could make the market a little more interesting for X-Mas, but I doubt we can.

If you have yet to head out this X-Mas season, be careful when driving, and remember when NO ONE around you seems to have X-Mas cheer, that 99% of them were caught off guard by this decline, and many of the older people you see have 1/2 (or less) of the IRA or 401K that they used to.  Be kind and patient, ESPECIALLY to those who are neither kind nor patient to you (they need the most help and love).

Happy Holidays All!!!

Skål!