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New Year Considerations 2016
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New Year Considerations 2016

by The MoleDecember 31, 2015

It’s official, you have wasted yet another year on empty pursuits whilst documenting literally every vapid second of it on your ridiculous Facebook page. If you’re wiping away tears of regret right now whilst reminiscing the past 365 days of misery then let me remind you that you only have yourself to blame. For one, in your infinite wisdom you decided against joining as a Gold member here on Evil Speculator. Instead you spent the subscription money on lattes, frapuccinos, a camera stick, and a new iPhone because the one you bought six months ago had a scratch – on its protective casing. Which you now may have to sell on eBay for half the price (the iPhone sans the casing) because you blew up your wife’s account courtesy of a series of hare-brained trading decisions. That said, it may offer you some consolation that your ex-money is on good hands and will be appropriately dispersed amongst a carefully selected list of adult entertainment establishments.

New Year’s Considerations 2016

Now with the platitudes out of the way let’s proceed to our annual considerations for the new year. If you happen to be looking for predictions then please kindly mosey along as we don’t engage in voodoo or medieval practices here at Evil Speculator and thus clearly you’ve landed in the wrong place. Alright here goes nothing:

  • The market is going to go up, then it’s going to go down. And then up and down again. Then sideways. Try to keep up.
  • Remaining in full character you are going to make the same bone headed trading decisions that got you into trouble in the previous year. At least you’re consistent.
  • We are going to work our assess off helping you to establish a reliable edge but you’re going to be ignoring most of it.
  • Meanwhile you’ll be wasting your time reading ZeroHedge and exchanging Obama or Trump insults in the comment section.
  • Your wife will buy you clothes that will make you subconsciously unattractive to other women. Recall that she hates you because you blew up her account.
  • You will dream about a shirtless Putin riding a white horse. Strangely you will enjoy it more than anticipated.
  • Your mechanic is going to rip you off.
  • The Mexican waiter you insulted will spit in your drink. Again.
  • Terrorists are going to blow shit up – that’s just what they do. Who said we’re losing our traditions?
  • The weather is going to suck on days you care about and will be great during work days. No exceptions!
  • For U.S. readers: You will elect a new president who will end up disappointing you. Either way you’re getting what you deserve.
  • Someone is going to try to break into your online bank account 12,768 times this year. Fortunately you changed your password to four digits now.
  • You will have forgotten all your New Year’s Resolutions by January 5th. Alright, make it the 7th.
  • Evil Speculator will be bigger, better, and we’ll continue to bank our unfair share of ill-gotten gains. Now that’s something to look forward to.

And that is it – my last post of the year! I’ll be slaving away in the coming days to complete our site redesign, which as you can tell is not yet complete. Still quite a bit of work left on the navigation front but everything is going to be ready to roll early next week.

In the interim, here’s me wishing all of my intrepid readers an alcohol lubricated slide into the new year! Unless of course you’re Chinese and are following the wrong calendar. Some people just can’t be helped.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Round we go

    True traders tell me nothing i can not see on tape. True traders are unemotional, they tell me nothing. The perma bears, gold bugs, perma bulls the retards, now they tell me something, they have emotion and when it is extreme (capitulation) that really tells me something, but the key is I need to listen and have listened for a long time to understand what they are feeling. :)

  • Round we go

    looks like the timing of my real estate hedge maybe appropriate.

    http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-deadly-truth-about-the-great-boom-and-this-recovery/

  • Huey

    Funny post and love the new site! Happy New Year!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Happy New Year!

  • Billabong

    Great post! Excellent way to end year with humor … especially liked the one about wives buying clothes (belly laugh).

  • http://batman-news.com RacerXX
  • OzarkHillBilly

    Only if Bill Clinton was still President.

  • Billabong

    Happy New Year to all. I have a medical appointment this afternoon (bummer). Looks like the EOY close won’t be making new record highs and the Summation/ Bullish Percentage Indexes are still deteriorating, albeit slowly. 2016 will bring new challenges and repeating traditions (as mentioned above). Wishing all of you the best in 2016…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think Trump would be good for a few laughs. And if it’s Clinton 2.0 then you got your wish 😉

  • ridingwaves

    Please don’t publish that corrupt mofo H. Clinton on your blog next year…if elected, I’ll rent the top floor in your villa to escape…
    She will flush America down the toilet….real leaders have left America for whom knows where….

  • ridingwaves

    funny that we could end up right in the middle between the 2 GS spx calls for the year of 2100 and 2000….

  • Round we go

    they will close it green for year no doubt :)

  • Round we go

    what so he can repeal fred segal again. I cant believe I got duped by the fat self righteous bastard. he is the classic have my cake and eat it too.

  • kudra

    closed out a massive SPY short for less than $500 loss, which is great considering that at Tuesday’s close, I was looking at a $17K plus loss. Could have actually made a profit on the trade had I been a little more patient this morning.

    What a year! Lot’s of time spent trading and about a 25K loss to show for it. Got to get on the ball next year and get disciplined and mechanical.

    I am very grateful for the education provided here, especially the limbic brain/emotional wiring stuff. Peace

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey Mole, I suggest you add a “donation” button on your site to make it easy for people to contribute. I think you have a lot more loyal lurkers who are appreciative.

  • kudra

    If i strictly trade ETF’s and equities (no currencies or futures). Would a gold membership be of use to me? How so?

  • Round we go

    ron walker the color blind oki started in garage and was donation only. now he is paid only and built a substantial subs of what scott would call retards. not sure catering to the 1% pros is a viable business. scott you like to keeps records, what is the chart of subs for ES in the last seven years.

  • BKXtoZERO

    the top% have money and many have hearts and are appreciative.

  • Round we go

    yah there were tons of black boxes the rich bought in the past for 10K+, I know guys who bought them in the past. they will not buy again. i agree about the donation by the way, cus the sub business that I see is all based on retards. I dont think you go full retard like slope. but I think of this place like the designer boutique hotel I like to stay at rather than the Westin.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gold gives you access to my discretionary campaigns and various market analysis I keep for my subs. If you do equities however I STRONGLY recommend the Zero (which includes gold!).

  • kudra

    Thank you. I will be looking into this subscription. I admire all aspects of your game. Peace and Happy New Year!

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Nice post, Happy New Year. Shorted NQ here, 4629

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I was actually considering it for the leeches. I could add both a PayPal and a Bitcoin donate button. This may also lure more guest posters here!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Just “Shared” on facebook. All of my troubled friends will be flocking here imminently.

  • Round we go

    yes to paypal, no to bitcoin.

  • Darkthirty

    What is “2 of 3”? for 100K alex

  • Round we go

    so will today’s close be the start of STFR for 2016. Happy new year :)

  • ridingwaves

    Iran’s president orders expedited ballistic-missile program, crude may get a lift by this news…

  • Round we go

    sodom and gomorrah burns….

  • ridingwaves

    don’t get caught in the emotion trap…..

  • Round we go

    emotion is not a trap, it is a gift :)

  • Darkthirty

    ARRGGHH! DO NOT engage in the drama!

  • ridingwaves

    have you ever seen S & G? why post it….its something written long ago in a book that has no bearing on todays world…..
    start looking for some angles for next year….

  • Round we go

    what you think humans have changed? go study how monkeys treat each other. primates are primates. Dubai is the modern S&G, it is burning NOW!. Gold, Legalized sex slaves, Lions as pets. its all the same. if you dig there is some amazing epic decadence going on. In nature everything works on a smooth bell curve. In human nature it is all hyperbolic peeks.

  • ridingwaves

    sounds like Vegas….or Hollywood…
    maybe somewhat similar to the 1920-30’s

    hard to make money off decadence….unless your a pimp, whore, bootlegger or cartel member….

    go surf, no more religion here….save it for church….

  • Round we go

    no Vegas is still in the US with a Veil of Christian ethics. In Dubai sex slave is legal straight up.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Anyone care to make a prediction regarding the NYSE and NASDAQ eliminating Stop and GTC orders in a couple of months? This was probably covered here back in November when I was otherwise occupied, but I thought I’d bring it up anyway since I haven’t seen it come up much for discussion anywhere, perhaps because no one is really sure about how trading will be affected. The press releases just present this as a means to protect retail traders from inordinate losses in flash crashes ….. I’ll leave it up to the individual to decide if that’s just for public presentation.

    Brokerages appear to be free to accept these order types, but the responsibility for execution won’t be on the floor of the exchange. However, I’ve been asking around and there doesn’t appear to be any consensus on what will happen; there’s no official word that I could find after a cursory examination regarding what brokerages would do. After talking to a few broker buddies, we figured that the market makers aren’t sure yet either, and since most retail orders get routed to the market makers, the brokerages are still waiting to find out what orders the MM’s will accept and how this will change NBBO. GTC orders aren’t really an issue since (as far as I know) retail brokerages hold these in-house already, but eliminating stop orders at the stock exchanges seems to be and issue to pay attention to. I’m assuming stop-limits will still be around, but there is confusion out there with this as well.

  • ridingwaves

    I would enjoy everyone’s perspective on this subject as I’m behind the 8 ball on what is going to take place…New years day reading for me…
    thanks OHB for mentioning this…

    OT-1980-2000 range Mole points out could be in play next week

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Covered at 4603. Peace out, don’t get too drunk

  • Huey

    Feb 26 is when it happens, pending SEC approval. Can’t find anything about whether or not it’s just Stop Market orders or all types of stop orders. What a stupid rule, if people don’t know how to place an order they probably should pay someone else to do it for them. Here’s the statement from NYSE: https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/NYSE_Client_Notice_Removal_of_Stop_and_GTC_orders_112015.pdf

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Thanks for posting the official notice. My girlfriend decided that the middle of the day was a great time to have an emotional discussion, so it took me about two hours to type up those two paragraphs. Plenty of speculation out there on the webs regarding the decision but I’m hesitant to post any. For example:
    http://wallstreetinsightsandindictments.com/2015/12/what-the-nyse-isnt-saying-about-its-earth-shattering-decision/

    My own unfounded suspicions leave me thinking that the decision is related to the NYSE’s implementation of new technology.
    https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2015/10/26/2015-27069/self-regulatory-organizations-nyse-arca-inc-order-approving-proposed-rule-change-and-notice-of

  • BKXtoZERO

    ” My girlfriend decided that the middle of the day was a great time to have an emotional discussion,”
    LOL….. My wife is far worse. Marry her and buy a house and have a kid….. then EVERY day any time is a good time.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Yes it’s even better with a three year old knocking on the office door every 5 minutes.

  • Darkthirty

    Would that eliminate stop sweeps?

  • kudra

    Scott P. was dead wrong about 2 days ago when he said ” No more shorting for at least another two days IMO” and that i should be “well out of that trade at the earliest opportunity.” That advice would have cost me thousands of dollars, and it was ringing in the back of my mind when i started covering the SPY short (selling SPXS) this morning (also didn’t want the accounting headache of carrying wash sale losses into the new year so i was closing the SPXS pos. today win lose or draw). I know i’m supposed to have my own plan and not listen to others, but I mention it to show that Scott P. is not right more than 50%, as he readily admits. Tough market this year.

  • Scott Phillips

    Yep I was wrong :) Take my advice about trading, NOT about markets

  • Scott Phillips

    Agree with you. Business wise, there are more retards, and more get made every day.

    It’s a no-brainer catering for them over the real traders.

  • Scott Phillips

    I despair for your whole country. Look at the shitty choices you have! Trump is basically an internet troll, and Hillary a bought and paid for wall street shill.

    As an Australian, I find it incredibly sad that what was the greatest country in the world in the 90’s (not that long ago) has gone so far down the toilet, so fast.

  • kudra

    All good, Scott. i think your thoughts about markets are better than you might give yourself credit for. Respect.

  • Scott Phillips

    True traders are NOT unemotional. Certainly some are, but most aren’t. Mostly the bad traders are not just emotional, but unwilling to feel their emotions. I had an ES long stopped out, and had some feelings of loss about it today, especially since I have to conduct my monthly and quarterly review today and it affects my bottom line.

    The emotions of strong conviction about Gold, the Fed, the crooked market, or direction are covering up something else, always.

    Usually the origin of these feelings they want to avoid is in childhood, long before they heard of the markets.

  • Round we go

    in the money on both PSQ bought at 4600 and 4693 nas futures. would have been in the money on the sqqq bought at 4610 and stopped out 4650, but I wanted to set a good example and take the hit ( scott called me on the holding after gap ) :)

    just money anyhow, better to have consistent trade practice.

  • Scott Phillips

    The point is that picking market direction is a fools errand. I can get it right sometimes, but wrong sometimes too.

    When I didn’t keep records, I really truly thought that my technical analysis ability was somehow an inherent market picking edge. Once I kept records I realised I was fooling myself. Also, I met a bunch of real pro traders all doing over 100% a year, and without exception they were only “average” at tape reading. They were all ok, but certainly not great at it. I was forced to examine my preconception that reading the tape is a core skill for trading.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    He was the governor when I was growing up. I went to high school in Central Arkansas; guys that worked as busboys and kitchen help at the nice hotels in Little Rock (really just two, the Excelsior and Capitol) would tell stories about the governor and other state officials having parties and always needing more hookers and cocaine sent up to their rooms. I recall that the best parties occurred when the Japanese businessmen (remember, late 80’s) came to town to make deals. Clinton certainly knew how to grease the wheels of commerce.

    Based on the number of second and first hand accounts I’ve heard from people over the years, I’d have to say that nearly everything we hear about him is true, or at the very least, indicative of his true character.

  • BobbyLow

    OK Billy, I’ll make a “prediction”. :)

    If this provision by the NYSE is to “protect” retail traders it will be just one more thing concocted by the NYSE in coordination with the SEC to Fuck the retail trader over even more. This reminds me of the $25K Minimum Capital Requirment – Maximum Three DayTrade Rule that was implemented because of the amount of Retail Speculation during the Tech Boom of the Late 90’s. What that rule did was to continue allowing any smuck to piss away hundreds of thousands of dollars daytrading. But when this same smuck get’s down to less than $25,000 of Capital, his number of day trades per week become extremely limited. So basically it allows the market to get the biggest amount of capital it can from lambs who choose to be slaughtered but only until balances get down to $25 K. Well that’s very considerate. In the mean time, there is no rule concerning the number of Day Trades in the Futures Market where the amount of leverage is extreme. All the NYSE Stock Day Trading Rule was made for was to give the impression that they have our backs and are protecting the little guy from himself. Really?

    But regarding the current new reg, “The press releases just present this as a means to protect retail traders from inordinate losses in flash crashes …..” I would like to know how Stop Orders protected Retail during the last Flash Crash? I had 4 Long Open positions during the Flash Crash of May, 2010. They all had hard stops at the market. Every single one of them got hit way below my stops. So basically what this is saying that we are going to take the market makers and intituitions off the hook because if we have another Flash Crash it’s just tough shit because you might not be stopping out at all. This regulation looks like its real intent is to protect the Market Makers and Brokerages not Retail Traders.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey, I haven’t posted here since last year! (on my end)

    Happy new year everyone!

  • Scott Phillips

    This guy is one of those broken clock guys been calling for a bear market for 4 years

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Happy New Year.
    still 2015 here, just got back from LA. beautiful sunny weather, no wind.

    looks like Ivan was the first, I am near the last.

    http://www.globaleye.org.uk/primary_summer2002/eyeon/images/mapislands-date.gif

    just about Hawaii is the only dudes left for the turnover.
    The Sun never sets on Evil Spec.
    -GG

  • TheRooster

    Thanks mate, hadn’t seen this and it is such big news that I am dubious as to why more people aren’t talking about it……

  • Billabong

    2016 reminder – Date: November 16, 2015
    Audience: NYSE & NYSE MKT Traders
    Subject: Elimination of Stop and GTC order types
    Subject to effectiveness of a rule filing with the SEC, NYSE and NYSE MKT will no longer accept new Stop Orders and Good Till Cancelled (“GTC”) Orders beginning February 26, 2016. Additionally all existing GTC and Stop Orders residing on the NYSE book will be cancelled. Firms wishing to receive electronic outs on that date, will need to remain connected to NYSE gateways until 6:00 PM.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Interesting about the GTC orders – I guess they expect the platforms to handle this stuff these days. The stop orders have a pro and con – on the plus side you are out quicker if the exchange handles the stop and especially if your platform melts down you’re safe. On the negative side all those stops are visible on Level 2 and thus can be exploited. I’m curious why they would actually discourage that given that HFTs have become major liquidity providers and most other exchanges are courting them. Does anyone have deeper insides into this move?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “The Sun never sets on Evil Spec.”

    Hehe – I like that one :-)

  • Round we go

    I dont care what he has been saying for the last four years. I care what his chart is saying right now.

    I have been a product designer for the last 10 yrs. There are very few senior product designers as we only work during the start of the product life cycle. Senior product designers ( the hot shots ) that work in consultancies know each other and have an unique insight into the corporate planning. Product designers are also the first fired during recessions and first hired in recovery. The layoffs for product designers started two years ago and started accelerating last year. There are alot of empty seats in design studios now. Equities is dumb money at the end of the credit cycle. Commodities is the real world, pink slips are the real world. Have you noticed the acceleration of hedge funds liquidating, have noticed the amount of pink slips handed out at Wall St before christmas, did you notice that BofA did not fund christmas parties this year.

    you can hit the snooze button so many times, then you need to wake up. but the sun will shine again once everyone gets back to work. and a round we go :)

  • BobbyLow

    In my first comment, I might have overreacted to this new Reg because of my lack of understanding of what this new Reg is all about and this is my bad. My distrust of the SEC and the leadership of the NYSE really began in earnest when rules were changed during the middle of the game in late 2008 and early 2009. These rule changes forced the covering of bank shorts etc., protected the Bankers who made millions and millions of dollars via reckless and in some cases fraudulent lending and then when the bill finally came due were made whole by the Taxpayers. I can visualize “Tangelo” and others like him laughing with millions stashed away somewhere. So when something is put out that is supposed to “protect us”, I tend to look at it with a suspicious eye. :)

    However, none of this really matters because the game is what it is. And if I choose to play this game, I must accept the risks and smoke screens that come with it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    My good til cancel stops always seem to be raped in the worst way. It’s the worst part of retail for anyone trying to be a “trader”.
    “Investors” with longer term view and hold strategies, not so much. Most of my more successful endeavors were longer term holds and “building positions”, even using volatility to dump higher entries and hold lower entries, then later adding lower entries in small chunks. I have been told that is not the way to “trade” and I’ve felt conflicted between shorter term “trades” which I also do and longer term set up and hold strategies for a while now. I may break my account into thirds or quarters and deploy different strategies this year. One will be a system of some kind, even a simple one like Scott has offered unless I get a strike of genius and find my own goldmine system (unlikely) but I’m not bad once I have time and apply myself.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Scott’s failed market prediction proves his longstanding point that a good trader should not depend upon what the market would do next. Scott has always maintained that people who depend upon their “ability” to predict the market will eventually fail.

    It is time to get away from predicting the market’s next move. Instead, we must have the alternatives preplanned, including no trading, so as to end up with either riding a trend or getting out gracefilly with a small loss, irrespective of what the market would do.

    Despite the best possible and well-meaning advice from Scott, for one to quit trading until one gets one thought processes fixed, the advice appears to be still ignored by many of us.

    Most people probably missed the move during the last couple of days due to a bias caused by either a belief or a disbelief of someone else’s, or even their own, prediction. If one really wanted to get on the downtrend during the last couple of
    days, one could do that by using short-term charts, without having to predict or be biased about the market move using the daily charts.

    After all, all trends appear first on the short term charts before percolating on to the longer term charts, where they become more sustainable, to eventually turn around, and then again starting from the shorter term charts.

    In conclusion, in line with what Mole always says, it is important to not listen to others about anything related to the market’s next move. Use your own analysis of the charts. It is a bad practice to bet on someone else’s prediction or try to copy someone else’s trades, even if we know about them, not only because it can only be after the fact, and opinions do change, but, more importantly, because it is not possible to be someone else.

    Also, RBT should be done as per one’s own proven rules, as Sage Ivan always says.

    Incidentally, I have a self interest in writing this post, as it is an attempt to fix my own thought processes. So, I say nothing personal to others!

  • Scott Phillips

    Actually to be accurate I didn’t make a market prediction at all. I never do that. I was asked for an explanation of why the market went up, and I gave my best analysis.

    I added that “the highest probability now is a retest of the old highs, success or failure unknown”. Now we know. Attempt at old highs – fail.

  • Scott Phillips

    The point is that when you develop a big complicated theory about what is DEFINITELY GOING TO HAPPEN you always become blind to the opposite.

    He’s obviously convinced you. Be honest, was his spiel just as convincing last year or the year before? Because those predictions always look good to me. Predicting a big complicated nasty thing is always a great way to get an audience – it works. Harry Dent, Prechter, all the prediction monkeys have been doing it for years.

    Because of the way humans are wired, the counter trend play ALWAYS looks much better. When I *think* a top picking exercise looks like 60:40, it’s really 45:55.

    There isn’t one single prediction monkey guy who has managed to be consistently profitable if you followed his shit.

    NONE. ZERO. ZIP.

    One of the worst things you can do for your trading is start reading these guys. They don’t know any better than you, truly :)

  • Scott Phillips

    TheRooster, I’m in Brisbane for another two weeks, excepting a few days I might go back to my place at Noosa. I’m not far from the CBD, let me know if you are around :)

  • Round we go

    price was going up but the internals were shit.

  • Round we go

    remember the T on the vix. well it still on track. and this is auto generated lines not what I drew. so save your comments scott. I will be looking to make a full position on it Monday. Was it BKzero or Huey who picked the bottom?

  • Round we go

    biggest issue will be trying to play days where vix goes 30 plus. I missed huge trades on flash crash days, cus I could not get my orders to fill. sometime it seams best to hit market order on wicked volatility days. will see what madness the machines cook up. love idea of testing strategy systems. I am doing a intermediate term weekly chart trading with half my account and daily chart swing trading with the other half.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in at 5.8 at the moment. I’ve been in and out a lot in the last 2 years. I owe a lot of my good fortune to Mole being a great tape reader and great guy in sharing. I play that with a small portion of my account accumulating at lows and waiting for pops. The last 2 years that strategy has paid off really well. Prior to that, messing with TVIX in any way was just bad news. You had to be on your feet to even get most of your money back on whatever pops there were. It was foolish and it was a net loser. The last 2 years have been friggin awesome. Doing this is not “trading”, not sure if it’s a “system” but I have stayed with the strategy and especially now that volatility is picking up it has been working well. I don’t chase VIX or buy at all when it is elevated, only sell into strength in lots. I try to break my account into sections for Oil, VIX, metals ETFs etc. That way no one area can ruin me. Oil and VIX have treated me well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Oh… BTW… forgot. 1) You said “taking a full position”? hope that means 1-2R (for you) and nothing heavy handed crazy. I wouldn’t do that. 2) As for Scott… regard his comments as gold and fatherly advice nice enough to even care what you do when he doesn’t have to.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Tax year 2015 results. My new years resolution is to finally start expressing myself in actual “R” (not my version of it) for stops position sizing and results. When I finally started looking for real I found I was actually pretty close to the 1-2%R a fair amount of the time! (but not all the time). Next I will start keeping records the way you guys do for win/loss, statistical things that Mole, Bobby and Scott do. That is to start. After that as time permits I try to find my “edge”. So far that edge has been Mole’s generosity of posts. Thanks for a great year all! BK (small potato)

  • Round we go

    full lot is 2% of my swing trade account.

  • Round we go

    stop would be 5.95

  • Kishore Kumar

    Well said! And I agree. Personally, I think that in a flash crash, all margin accounts and Future accounts are at the mercy of the exchanges and the brokers. Many of these accounts can potentially be wiped out, unless the risk exposure is very small compared to the total value of the account.

    Despite all of the other disadvantages of Options, they do offer protection against a flash crash caused by a fat finger or exchange glitches that may very well be orchestrated to steal wholesale from the retail accounts.

    Invariably, as also the name implies, flash crashes have been reversing the entire move, intraday. What a great way to steal, “courtesy” of the robber barons!

    The new rule of elimination of market stop orders will put many more margin accounts and Futures accounts at even a greater risk of a wipeout, without any accountability for the exchanges or the brokers and we will probably see more frequent orchestrated “flash crashes”.

    I personally knew someone who lost $14MM during the 9/11 flash crash in 2001 but I have no idea how he managed to do it as I did not ask him for the details after I saw his face squirm in pain when he first told me about it.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Scott The Great, we should be thankful to the retards. Actually, it may be better to lower the bar to allow even more to enter the kingdom of “retardom” and then to educate them, for them to lose with confidence. After all, with the winners being only at 2%, there is a great potential for new lucrative markets to open among the remaining 98%.

    Moreoever, why even be in the business of catering to traders, who are a lot less likely to be retards? Probably, better to cater to the hapless, looking for “religious” Gurus or cults. I am sure you have heard of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, Osho.and numerous others. This book, backed by scholarly research, contains the secret sauce: http://www.amazon.com/Guru-Papers-Masks-Authoritarian-Power/dp/1883319005/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1451709094&sr=8-1&keywords=guru+papers

  • ridingwaves

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=MCOILWTICO
    the new normal is really the old normal….

  • OzarkHillBilly

    When I first heard about it in November, I thought it was some kind of ZeroEdge joke. It wasn’t until last week that I realized it was real, and I imagine that even the folks who are aware of it don’t know what to make of it. I’d advise everyone to inquire with their broker for guidance, but so far I haven’t gotten any definite answers.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Good question. i don’t think so, although the “behind-the-scenes” mechanisms and procedures might change.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    That had a lot to do with Reg T and its enforcement, or rather the lack thereof. Brokerages, especially the relatively new online brokers, were allowing nonmargin accounts to trade back and forth like crazy. The SEC found this to be a violation of Reg T. It officially takes three days for equity trades to settle; buying, selling, and then buying again before 3 days with the same funds was determined to be an illegal extension of credit. Thus, one must have a margin account to trade quickly. I wasn’t in the business then, but it was my understanding that no one really ever enforced the rule this way, because it wasn’t really a problem until Joe Blow started trading his little Etrade account every hour back in the Internet Bubble.

    And then the PDT Rule followed on from that in 2001 or so …….. always seems like the new rules come along AFTER the problem that they were supposed to fix is well past.

    IMHO the exchanges are more concerned about avoiding political pressure rather than Joe Blow losing out on some trades in a flash crash. Mom & Pop “investors” don’t even know what stop orders are. Back when I was a broker, most persons’ eyes would just glass over when I explained the order types. For the few that actively traded, we had good discussions regarding stop vs stop limit orders, especially after the HFT related flash crashes.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I’d have to agree that the exchanges are likely looking out for themselves first and foremost. We don’t have to be ZeroEdge regulars just to be suspicious of their intent.

    My U.S Rep had a local office just a few blocks away from my work. Back before the bailouts and rule changes, I took a couple of hours to go over and and at least attempt to explain to his people how this would not stop a crash, how it would make things worse, would leave grandma carrying the bag-of-goods, how criminals would be rewarded etc. My Rep was in DC, but I’m sure he didn’t understand, because I could only make one person in his office understand the whole chain of events. My Rep voted for the bailouts …… and now he is a Senator. Furthermore, the mayor of the town I worked in was always quoted in the papers about how there was no housing bubble, real estate always goes up, etc. He is now my Representative. Arrggghhh. Both these guys are Republicans, BTW.

    It was also in that timeframe that I started reading Evil Speculator. Like you said, if we are gonna play this game, we have to accept everything that comes with it.

  • mugabe

    ‘Brokerages may still offer these kinds of orders to their consumers, the NYSE spokeswoman said, but the orders will no longer be available directly from the exchange.’
    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/nyse-eliminates-stop–gtc-orders-23911.html

    Happy New year!

  • Scott Phillips

    I’ve partied in Dubai, its a pretty boring town, vice wise. Plenty of places in Asia and Europe make it look tame.

  • Round we go

    cus your not part of the ruling party. your not .1%

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Euo3JaqFoss

  • Round we go

    here is why the market breath is shit and the indexes keep ramping. Bullshit!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-02/500000-170-million-few-months-next-subprime-trade-emerges

  • Round we go

    the game has always been monopoly. it’s a shame people don’t play the board game anymore. simple lessons but greed makes us blind.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/10/11/us/politics/2016-presidential-election-super-pac-donors.html?smid=tw-nytpolitics&smtyp=cur&_r=0

  • TheRooster

    thanks buddy, should hear tomorrow or tuesday if i am going to brissie – if not i need to go to sydney week after if you are back?

  • TheRooster

    oh, and a place in Noosa too? For the uninitiated who don’t know Australia that well, you wish you had Scott’s life!

  • Round we go

    if that guy is a broken clock, you are a broken record. I may have been premature in labeling you a tiger. cus I am sensing you are…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9bk2MrMGaA

  • Kishore Kumar

    Sir Mole III, leech I may be, but surely not a thankless one. Hopefully, I will be able to repay you, someday, in kind. Meanwhile, I am much obliged! A donate button is a great idea. Should a pop up window come up again and again, for the non subs? Depends upon how “evil” you want to get!

    Please consider providing a standardized on-line mechanism for a logged-in user to post user’s own trades, with the user choosing an option to share or not to share the posted trades with others. It will not only increase visibility and accountability, to others and to the user itself, but also eliminate corruption of the comments section with people posting their trades, that is currently being done without any accountability or interest by others. Most of all, it will separate the winners from the losers and the shared trades will provide a broadcast mechanism, i.e. powerful advertising, for the financial effectiveness of your teachings.

  • Scott Phillips

    Yeah I’m around until the 15th, back in BKK for 2 months then back here for 2 months

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Boy, I’m exhausted – have worked on this site non-stop for the past 10 days. Still have a lot left to do – this is taking longer than expected!

  • OzarkHillBilly

    That’s almost always how it seems to go. But the site looks good and I like the way you’ve got the homepage laid out.

  • phylum

    As a dear old Uncle once said to me, “take your best guess n double it n double it again”

  • Round we go

    overnight selling, remember when it used to do that instead of ramping :)

  • Round we go

    will be looking to add longterm short position on RUT when the ppt get to work.
    tza, tvix and sqqq for swing trade

  • BKXtoZERO

    Good luck getting in tomorrow as it looks like a gap down. This is why I get in when I see lows on horizontal support and just camp out. On a gap I am already in. I don’t like chasing tvix only to get pie in my face.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    {sigh}
    those were the days.

    Get mad you son of a bitches.
    http://s4.postimg.org/p2ka33tfx/New_Year_2016.png

  • Billabong

    I don’t have the insight to understand why they are doing it. IMO, they wouldn’t do it unless there is some benefit for ICE. It could also be tied into a liquidity issue … And if we want a conspiracy theory, it’s prep for a meltdown.

  • Billabong

    ES at 2000 (support for the last 3 months).

  • newbfxtrader

    Take it easy Boss. We need you at your best the next few months :)

  • newbfxtrader

    Your charts are better without the curves….

  • newbfxtrader

    Been tested too many times. Look lower for a lasting bottom.

  • Round we go

    yah, focus on tza and sqqq. but vix may go nutz again. china crash is not just going away in a day, and the US indexes are only down 2% is my thinking. tricky, I am so glad that I got my longterm short positions on the unicorn techies.

  • Round we go

    dax down over 4%

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, that was the point – the site structure was holding me/us back. It needed to be done. This place is going to kick ass this year!

  • newbfxtrader

    You should see CHina…

  • Round we go

    yah saw it. now it is everybody else. Nikkei down over 3%

  • Round we go

    ok BKZ ( BKZtoZero ) you get trader of the month with your vix bottom. your my vix alarm now :)
    looking lot like aug crash. will see…

  • Round we go

    yen looks like it can explode, watch out carry traders your days are numbered.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Working on a new post – give me 30 minutes.

  • ridingwaves

    nailed that one…December was a good month…the contango in VIX made it kind of a no brainer trade….I might sell at open as I expect one push back up to 2020-30, 2016 should be great volatility trading…

  • Round we go

    wow is the ppt staying clear?

  • Round we go

    weird metals up, oil up and index down. guess it’s rotation rather than total liquidation for now.

  • ridingwaves

    total liquidation was 2009….where do u see opportunity today is most important..as mentioned below VIX reverse instruments were in Contango/backwardation last Thursday…

  • Round we go

    yah your contango post set off my alarm bell. I was very focused on unicorns and forgot about the rocket :)

  • ridingwaves

    there will be opportunity today with the big boys back in town

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGZqDzb__bw

  • Round we go

    so the move to now was only bulltrap, as all the boys were on the sideline like mole and tim. lets see how the big boys react :) good luck riding.

  • Round we go

    is that the ppt coming?

  • tradingmom

    my zero isn’t updating.

  • Round we go

    greece or glencore first?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    )
    ( /( ( (
    )()) ( )))( ‘
    ((_) ) ((_)() )
    _((_)((_) _(())_)()
    | | || __| ((_)/ /
    | .` || _| // /
    ( |_|_||)__|( _/_/
    ) ) ( /( ) ) * )
    (()/( )()) (()/(` ) /(
    /(_))((_) /(_))( )(_))
    (_)) ((_) (_)) (_(_())
    | _ / _ / __||_ _|
    | _/ | (_) |__ | |
    |_| ___/ |___/ |_|

    WOHOOO!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Only yours ;-P

  • BKXtoZERO

    lucky person of the month, not a trader yet.