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No Casual Fridays At The Lair
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No Casual Fridays At The Lair

by The MoleOctober 20, 2017

Sorry guys but casual Friday will have to be postponed until further notice as we’re too busy banking coin and taking numbers. On top of a veritable laundry list of winning campaigns over the past few weeks we managed to grab a very fortuitous entry on the E-Mini yesterday right ahead of the opening bell. As I was a bit pressed for time Thursday morning I thought it worthwhile to share some of my pertinent perspectives today, i.e. what caused me to suggest this campaign in the first place and how my initial beliefs were confirmed later in the session.

2017-10-20_spoos_volume

Exhibit A most definitely is the volume hole posted on Tuesday and which was never close to being challenged. This in addition to the short term floor pattern justified a proverbial lottery ticket as the impending threat of a meaningful interest rate hike (after positive initial jobless numbers) was priced into this market a long time ago.

2017-10-19_Zero

Exhibit B of course is our Zero indicator which has shown us very little participation over the past few weeks and that usually means lack of fear and maximum complacency. I’m not saying the market is necessarily justified but let’s remind ourselves that we are trading the market we are given, not the market that should be.

Finally after the open (post-entry) the Zero signal recovered extremely quickly and thus supported our general idea of this having been an attempt to scare the children. Which should be expected after months and months of continuous upside. By the way, if you are not a subscriber yet then you may mosey over to our sign-up page and sign up already. Even if you’re not an E-Mini trader it’s a great tool for assessing  short and medium market direction. Or alternatively find yourself on the other side of our trades 

2017-10-20_sugar_update

Now sugar has yet to make a move but it’s still early in the game and a little shake out attempt here would be not be unusual. We’re leaving our ISL in place and watch this coil tightening over the coming days…

2017-10-20_USDCAD_stop_out

USD/CAD is a stop out at ISL. Surprising actually as this one used to be such a fine runner over the past few weeks, banking us very respectable coin. The market just never ceases to teach you lessons in humility, or in other words – markets have no loyalty and thus always expect to be wrong.

2017-10-20_USDJPY_stop_out

USD/JPY also is a stop out but at least we managed to squeeze 0.8R out of this campaign. I’m a bit miffed for having missed what clearly was a prime re-entry opportunity yesterday but I simply was too busy and couldn’t follow the tape as much as I needed to.

Now we actually have a ton of exciting setups on the roster today, but I decided to keep them all for my intrepid subs as their continued loyalty and support needs to be rewarded. If you haven not already you may want to join us and thus ensure the daily flow of market analysis and entry opportunity.

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I think I’ve done enough damage for the week. Now it’s off to the gym for a bit of stress relief. I’ll continue my work on various machine learning and system related projects this weekend but will make sure to squeeze in a Hefeweizen or two somewhere. Have yourself a wonderful weekend wherever you are!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • OJuice

    Check out the weekly and seasonal timing for Gold. Its tough to get into and then stay in the saddle with futures, but, if you can, this is one to fight for IMO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/022cb8210d0e60449513aa071d4167a07ecc19b56b8aacaff1034f492c69eb58.jpg

  • OJuice
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • OJuice

    I’m gonna wait for the 20 hr to turn up. I got lots of price alerts on my phone to make sure I don’t miss an entry.

  • StockTalker

    Nearly stopped out of NQ, geez. NG has stiff res at 2.9 area shall see.

  • OJuice

    Negative SKEW represents a distribution shifted to the right correct? aka more positive.

  • ridingwaves

    Mole has been serving juicy setups with eggs over easy for a while now…breakfast of champions…

  • HD

    Very nice trade Mole.

  • HD

    $DJI trumpet rally has impulsed beyond the 1.618. at https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/626dd23436f72111c70569ace7620032135f17b7bf0c54ec7aecd3b837632cec.png TL, 5=1 just above.

  • HD

    GC will find symmetry from the 2014 low at 1462 near HWB for the entire 1900-1000

  • ridingwaves

    FIRE sector loving life, Hitting bio pretty hard after closing a gap from 2 years ago.. IBB target 327…. OT Rant- Moonbeam Gov. Brown might cause me to have to use passport while flying in the US….because he is more worried about illegal aliens than fixing drivers license issues…..please someone kidnap that socialist….

  • StockTalker

    Dollar still inverted here, cash is king:)

  • ridingwaves

    that 94# is acting like the great wall of china….I mean renminbi…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Copper just dumped

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, a little bit worrisome on the big weekly picture.
    (copper may be done with a 2 year run IMHO)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b5476ee113a4f409073ed4e37186c54dccfaadef5fbb67a8bcea319aa94a29b.png

  • Yoda

    OPEX day, finally. Tired of that slow, no participation, grinding shit.

  • ridingwaves

    rsi still looks strong….too early to even think about a move lower.. me thinks it just moves sideways from here

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    certainly. price to rsi however is divergent.

    a pullback to the blue line would not be a surprise.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dump the market prehours Thursday.
    open lower with selling and insurance buying the first hour.
    melt up the rest of the day (hat tip to Mole).
    and gap up today.

    Pure Evil.
    Why didn’t I think of that.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    wtf- who writes this junk
    A stunning new report reveals how few women of color are employed in Silicon Valley

    did they even think that most women of color don’t even live near silicon valley as Rent and home prices are only for the Uber wealthy….

    this race BS is starting to really fuck up america….the media makes it 99x larger than what it is

  • ridingwaves

    yep, its only a couple cents to begin with…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there *could* be spikes on the Holidays.
    I would think from lack of interest/volume?

    http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_HG1.PNG

  • Ronebadger

    Why? ’cause you are NOT Pure Evil…. just Mole…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    correct. and remember – don’t confuse the media with the Facts.

    snow flakes are being triggered right and left, and someday they will melt when they find out about law of the jungle, and bias, and simple “Life isn’t Fair”.

    Muwahaha.

  • StockTalker

    Very interesting indeed

  • OJuice

    I had to turn NPR off this morning on my drive to work. A democratic senator was going on about how someone in Trumps staff referred to her as something along the lines of “a cannon filled with nothing but hot air”. Then they played her soundbite of “that’s a racist comment, etc…”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    No.
    ..there is good in him. I’ve felt it.
    {now there’s an awkward movie quote}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I agree.
    However, Mole may pull out the political hammer.
    keep on target guys.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners.

  • Yoda

    Too much effort for only 20 ES handles, unless you are leveraged up to the nostrils.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    years ago, 20 ES handles was a big deal.
    at this level now? I think you’re right.

  • ridingwaves

    that headline came thru Marketwatch…..thus the off topic….
    back to reality, I mean trading….cheers…
    no more polidicks

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Hedged with DUST.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SLV, out at breakeven.

    yesterday was promising, but today no follow through
    it looks like I’m on the fence line. no edge.

  • ridingwaves

    broken RW record- shorting during earnings season over last 4-5 years has been disaster…..its like a veil of hopium is caste out by the Sauron of trading

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    I think I get credit for that word…..started using it for Calculated Risk in 2006 prior to meltdown….Urban dictionary be damned….debtpushers too….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’d like to give you credit.
    I think people were searching for it in 2004.
    better luck next time!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e1eca8d6473b07b2405feb2fc7d23e410fb2ed832e173621692a08756a8b864.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    70 more ES points.
    Now that would be a blow-off top.

    [Big Chart]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60535605346

    EDIT: all we have to do, is put a large joint order up at that level, and the Algo’s will swim to it. 😉

  • ridingwaves

    maybe was 2004, that was a long time ago……I was on fire as wordsmith back then…..now

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seems like you guys have already taken off for the weekend!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you sir!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I gotta earn my keep after all. Nah – sniffing out edges is my passion and I’m happy to share it with my crew.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, it’s hard to whip up the troops when they went to the Pub.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Race baiting – all it creates is mutual distrust and conflict. People are easily led into fighting each other. As Philip II of Macedon (a greek king) knew even way back almost 2400 years ago: divide et impera

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The MSM won’t be satisfied until it ignites a full blown civil war. Fucking idiots would sell their grandmother to make a buck.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I am actually very passionate about this stuff and really need to hold myself back to not let it creep into this blog. Leveraging a platform read by thousands of people is very tempting but I think in the long run it would only backfire. I think most of you guys know where I’m coming from, plus bitching and complaining won’t help any of us. All we should focus on is to bank enough fuck you money so we are able to extract ourselves to greener pastures when shit hits the fan.

  • ridingwaves
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    OH SHIT – wrong chart!!! AND TWICE!!! Meant to post the Sharpe Ratios which look a lot better.

    I may need another vacation and that soon!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And yes, that’s something I actually dedicated a whole post to.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What’s 57 handles among friends?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    when something is trending, like HYG, BTC, whatever
    I’ve learned to find the previous dip line.

    That line is either support for a continued bull move, or the beginning of bear.
    As I told Leo yesterday, HYG wasn’t rolling over. With Mole backstopping me, what a confidence booster!

    the trend continues.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e94b086cfef067b6d857f7f09ce9715789ce3398b1b94b5f6f943338e57feb7.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    how did you get a picture of Julie!?
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    to play Mole’s Sugar I’m using SGG, waiting on 29pps for buy in on 60 min chart….needs to get thru….I just wonder if sugar is somewhat like NG, lots of it and less people using it…

  • ridingwaves

    drone over small beach near bozeman…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    check out US production. this does not necessarily correlate to consumption.
    YMMV.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/191975/sugarcane-production-in-the-us-by-state/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve got to get closer to shore.

  • ridingwaves

    trying scalp on ADMP 5.65 stop 5.50

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • OJuice

    It’s been a while since you took a vacation.

    Been watching this sailing channel on YouTube. Sardinia looks nice.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?list=PLej_Gvr1c1MM4hEcyzmT06mGoIqoXHcwo&v=XxEiNE-Pz6k

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    loser stock of the day
    NCR -10%

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NCR&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92805253526

    one year wiped out.

  • OJuice

    I vaguely remember the post. I went searching for it and my ADD kicked in before I found the page…

  • ridingwaves

    nice….worried somewhat, they have approval on drug, my momo indicators and chart is looking ripe but this is bio and shorts could play with pps here….something is up.. I like the gap fill possibilities

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what’s the risk/reward? could be an awesome play.
    just mind the 2% rule.

  • OJuice

    Always a little wiggle room with the PnF.

  • ridingwaves

    excellent RR, heavy support below your envelope…I have support clustered at 5-5.20….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, getting close to end-of-week.

    If there is a blow off top, I’ll be looking at FAZ @ 11.
    just a toe dip entry. 😉

    [FAZ]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70879532028

    Cheers!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How does that help?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sugar production is gradually increasing YoY.
    I assume it’s alongside of human population.
    thoughts of “people using less of it” is a fallacy.