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No Lift No Gift!
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No Lift No Gift!

by The MoleDecember 22, 2017

Yesterday was my first day back at the gym and managed to snap right back into my full routine in stark contrast of me barely being able to walk upright just last Sunday. As the saying goes: No Pain – No Gain, or in Yuletide terms: No Lift No Gift! Which pretty much has been my motto for most of this year as I’ve been working my ass off 10 hours plus seven days a week on the quant system front, all of which is slowly starting to pay off now. More on that to follow over the coming weeks after alpha testing has completed.

Public Service Announcement

This will be my last pre-market post of the year as I, like most of you probably, am taking the final week of the year off. I will however post an update on our statistical stock trading system on the 24th as well as the 31st, so if you’re around make sure you’ll drop by for a few minutes. My first regular pre-market post will be on Monday, January 2nd. As always the Zero indicator and all systems will continue to run unabated and if you run into any problems just email me at admin@.

Alright, to wrap up the year in style I thought I’d run you through a few key markets and offer a few perspectives on where they may be heading next. Obviously equities have had another record breaking year which even managed to thwart the previous two phases of this ongoing bull market.

Frankly there is no telling how high it’ll go before it finally runs out of steam (and buyers) and if we are all honest anyone with an opinion who claimed to know the future since the 2008 lows has been run over by a steam roller. We are without doubt experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime bull market in equities, which is now only outdone by crypto currencies. When she’ll be ready for a meaningful correction I’m confident we’ll be there to reap the financial benefits, because that’s what we do here at Evil Speculator.

On a short term basis gold is looking bullish as heck and hasn’t even bothered to visit its 100-hour SMA over the past week or so. It’s now approaching its 25-day SMA where I’m sure it’ll take a moment to catch its breath.

Long term we are looking at a possible floor pattern, especially on the monthly panel. However until  1409.5 is breached the bears may still come back to haunt the gold bugs.

Crude is also progressing nicely and I am watching the unfolding rising wedge pattern on the ST panel with great interest. I am not involved here but would consider a long position on a small correction lower.

The long term picture in crude should be absolutely mind bogglingly compelling for any trend trader. The weekly Bollinger is just now entering expansion mode after a massive pinch which promises to bestow us with quite a bit of movement over the coming year(s). I think it’s going to be to the long side, assuming crude is able to make it above its 60 mark. Which is a situation that would be highly appreciated in places like Saudi Arabia which allegedly does not break/even below a crude price of $70, which in turn has caused massive unrest and political reshuffling in the recent past.

The EUR/USD unfortunately continues to shake off any political turmoil which isn’t really surprising as forex markets usually do the opposite of what economists think would make logical sense. For the Mole that probably means at least a 20% increase in living expense as I easily see the EUR/USD at 1.25 and even above, assuming of course it is able to breach > its current 1.20 inflection point.

Cable is on the move ladies and leeches, which I personally enjoy seeing as it probably pisses off all those unelected Eurocrats in Brussels. I think 1.45 is a possibility if it can push > 1.35 and hold it until early spring.

The situation in the Yen is less clear to me. The weekly formation gives both the bulls and bears equal odds but the upside is that it seems to be a pretty binary situation directed by its 114 inflection point. A push > and successful retest means a weaker Yen (and a higher USD/JPY). A drop from here drops us back to the lower supporting diagonal or worse.

I’m very happy to report that the Ozzie Dollar appears to be getting out of the gate. I posted this chart to my intrepid subs various times over in recent past in anticipation for just that event.

Which is why I am particularly proud that we managed to grab a long entry yesterday and our stop now goes to break/even. If you missed out on this one you only have yourself to blame as I told you many times to become a full fledged member. DO IT NOW WHILE SUBSCRIPTION FEES ARE STILL LOW!

Last but not least the new bad boy of currencies – Bitcoin. Do I even have to rub it in again? Human nature is just too predictable I am afraid. Frankly I’m done posting about cognitive biases and trading psychology as it only serves to drive away 99% of traffic and in the end I would end up talking to myself. Otherwise let’s just say that new Cboe and CME futures couldn’t have come at a better time. And given that crypto exchanges are reporting on average 100,000 new accounts per day I’m sure this will be the gift that keeps on giving for a long time to come.

This is me wishing all my stainless steel rats a very merry Christmas. As mentioned above I’ll briefly check in on the 24th and the 31st to keep the stock portfolio stats going. Otherwise I’m looking forward to a well deserved week of rest and reflection. Heck, perhaps even my damn hands may get a chance to heal! 😉

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I wish my hard work would pay off. All I got is this lousy sign.

    https://mysecretiveblog.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/homeless-coder.jpg

    trader withdrawals in 4…3…2…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    At least your skin is clearing up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot some more bios this morning….may need to scalp.

  • Ronebadger

    Merry Christmas Everyone!

    And there were shepherds living out in the fields nearby, keeping watch over their flocks at night. An angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified. But the angel said to them, “Do not be afraid. I bring you good news that will cause great joy for all the people. Today in the town of David, a Savior has been born to you; he is the Messiah, the Lord.Luke 2:8-11 NIV

  • Julie

    Good Morning Chief and Everyone. Showing a chart why I like the Ichi Cloud (8,21,55) and fib exp moving averages GLD See how important the fib exp mov ave 233 and the Ichi Cloud conversion and baselines are.120.37 is the 233 fib mov average and baseline. Unbelievable how price went up into that price . Now agap over and today’s low exactly 120.36. OK Not shown are fib retracements on chart but 120.36 was a 50% retracement. Now GLD as I type is up at the 61.8% retracement. Now target if the 61.8% retracement is surpassed is the declining tops line and the lower cloud boundary Also observe previously as how the 233 fib exp moving average was an important support Now a bearish close below 120.37 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6608025f0e313d775ed0f9e307f6d80b1005d0b436b73d38f709aae416f9a3d1.png would be an exit or a possible short JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    looks like volatility will be present for bio-healthcare in Jan.
    Gold looking good, GORO needs to break on thru
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17473765048

  • Julie

    Merry Christmas Ronebadger. Nice scripture as we are a Christian family and attend church regularly
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Merry Christmas to you and the family

  • Julie

    GLD A second daily chart The vertical blue line is an entry i.e. a close above the 8 ema ; Ichi cloud conversion line (8) ; MACD signal line cross and a cross above the downtrend line on CCI (20). The aprox 75% retracement matches the downtrend line and lower cloud boundary. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0618987dc6742ff862591d622d4bb6369141149d097ad35dd830446f33284535.png Combining this chart with the 60 min and 10 min charts.is what I do JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    surprised their is not more selling on BTC right now, people trying to save their xmas…

  • Julie

    GLD 60 min chart early entry Notice the MACD positive divergence.The vertical blue line is the early entry A close above the upper red downtrend line ; 8 ema and conversion line (8) ; MACD signal line cross and cross above the downtrend line CCI(20) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/219d9382d9c2d3adee918b30b7be742686552dd65984be4f5661189b1d60253b.png

  • Ronebadger

    Yes, there’s a reason for the season (I didn’t make that up…)

  • kim

    give it a time, Rome also wasn’t build in a day or so 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Stepping out for lunch.

    Merry Christmas Everyone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CirrRY_6aaU

  • Julie

    Merry Christmas GG
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GDX resistance levels 22.95 – 23.04 – 23.11 – 23.18 – 23.26 23.40 NOW 22.82 IS A VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL GDX going up into 22.95 and upper Keltner channel Shown Overbought full stochs 13,3,3 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ef8f6b7f15e709382bf152166adc4f710050db087e7bf869ad7040ca57743d28.png Daily Chart JULIE

  • Julie

    If GDX chokes here …. A bearish candle closing below 22.82 and Julie be a shorting target 22.04 – 22.08
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Merry Christmas Julie!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Merry Christmas to you you RW and Kim.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ronebadger – Merry Christmas

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Merry Christmas Mark!

  • TS

    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you, too, oh Evil One.

  • TS

    …and to the rest of you, too!

  • TS

    Amen.

  • Julie

    F closing short for a small gain Reason — Down to Daily Ichi cloud conversion line (8) ; Uptrend line ; IMO a corrective and not an impulsive pullback ; oversold 60 min ; lower cloud 60 min chart ; falling wedge AND Do Not Want To Hold Over Holiday Weekend. Will still retain GE long probe (very small position) Shown F 60 min chart detailing reasons As GG states you can always renter https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/495ebeaeddcf1e42084f32cad823336fe17e3ea79529b1b855b2f0bba6b8ed41.png JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Thanks

  • Mark Shinnick

    You too, man. Hope you get lots of rest and self-respecting productivity done. Looking forward to your new products!

  • Julie

    Merry Christmas TS
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Merry Christmas Chief !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    It may be hopium to many, but there seems to be magic in the messages of hope and forgiveness doing tangible good in the world through the ages. Thanks…You Too!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Relentless…like the rodent chewing in my attic. You Too!! , maybe sing-along with some buddies…
    https://youtu.be/whY9MKlvisI?t=25

  • Mark Shinnick

    Friggin’ stunned in abject denial.

  • BobbyLow

    Well I should have known that was going to happen. I was in a big hurry to shut it down for the year and play it safe so I took profit on my Long Gold earlier this week. Of course it has done nothing but go up since. I should have made a “George Constanza” move which is “if my first instinct is always wrong then the opposite would have to be right.” But seriously folks, it’s just another way of the market keeping me humble.

    Merry Christmas Y’all 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah..so often seems to happen that way…if PM thing is true it’s all still early stage. Merry…and humble, peace to all of goodwill 🙂

  • Julie

    Merry Christmas BL GLD going up into it’s 61.8% retracement in a rising wedge into it’s daily 55 ema with volume diminishing Overbought daily and 60 min charts. Re enter on a pullback as the Words of THE GG ! JULIE
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/25892c78eb89299152031baf8b5d24193603d18e2a86425c23f252e76bbd248e.png

  • ridingwaves

    The genius of the United States is not best or most in its executives or legislatures, nor in its ambassadors or authors or colleges, or churches, or parlors, nor even in its newspapers or inventors, but always most in the common people.
    Walt Whitman

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Julie,
    about that steak. just forget about it. It appears Fibonacci works, you just have to wait longer than expected. Yuck Yuck.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f542ccf5e90f8b9314ed02d78e15b4c4f11dfe53aa4c8eca678a3c55212df84c.png
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    Feliz Navidad to you and your wife Mole!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3hVoG2qiyM

  • Julie

    GG You combine fibs with fib exp moving averages ; Ichi Cloud fib parameters 8,21,55 ; trend lines and you can tell Intel Good Bye ! Speaking of INTC a breakout point failure at 47. Now a possible close below it’s daily 5 ema. If so down to it’s Ichi Cloud conversion lines and or 21 ema and upper cloud boundary.A dump below those then down to the 55 or 89 ema’s GG Let’s see how the day closes. I want to short the lower high esp. a bounce off it’s 55 or 89 ema’s to a lower high perhaps to the conversion lines or upper cloud boundary 89 ema matches the 50% retracement ; lower gap window https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b60f13b422ac1eef0516b09946baa0bcf7be79df7efdc261a705ec9b43878684.png 38.2 % retracement matches the 55 ema and the upper gap window and price support JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    INFI important action.

  • ridingwaves

    saw that just now

  • Julie

    Hey Guys F Yeah At it’s lower trend line and now looks impulsive. Target the lower black line is the 144 ema which corresponds to the daily 21 ema which it has hit twice previously as seen on this chart. If it reaches the target which is very possible then a corrective low volume bounce to a lower high will be a short. If a bounce takes place watch for a failure at the down trend lines on CCI(20) Target for bounce a 50 – 62% retracement matching the 60 min baesline (21) and upper cloud boundary. Now it could bounce here at the lower trend line i.e. still looks impulsive with no overlap Shown F 60 min chart.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e57dc189c875af89e632523faec18f90fb67069168c25d00bc207a4d64ca5fe.png

  • Julie

    Everyone Have A Merry Christmas !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WORD!

    Having lived here in Europe for the past five years I miss the simple and straight forward nature of the Americans. Looking forward to going back in the coming year or two.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Wishing all you rats a very merry Christmas from Thailand.

    Took this yesterday… they have some weird ideas about Christmas dinn https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ed68f5970bd3c5d5ed37f9ea1e2ebd84c06f9cdb68a6d7a16ce508d481c3985.jpg er!

  • supervilin

    Holy shiet its been 5 yrs already?
    Is it the case of grass greener where you are not?

    I tried Australia for the last 5. Everything is amazing except the remoteness and the timezone for trading…