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Not Seeing The Forest For The Trees
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Not Seeing The Forest For The Trees

by The MoleMarch 26, 2013

I think it’s once again time for an intervention. I’m seeing a lot of complaining about the tape here and quite frankly to me it’s a bit of a head scratcher as there are tons of great setups out there. It’s possible you may not be seeing the forest for all the trees!

And you don’t even have to look for setups yourselves, mind you – the Mole dishes them out every single morning. For mysterious reasons however I don’t see any pertinent commentary and it’s rather clear to me that only a minority of you guys are participating. To busy contemplating the Cyprus drama? I certainly hope not. Well, I just opened up this morning’s update to everyone – so feel free to verify the updates I’m posting here:

Well, if you missed out on that sweet AUD/CAD setup this morning then please ask your loved one to administer a swift kick to your behind courtesy of the Mole. Seriously now – this was almost free money. I should be ashamed for how easy this one was – but fortunately I’m shameless 😉

Talking about the spoos – yes, a bit of a snoozer today but if you took that 100-hour touch then you ought to have banked some green.

Ditto on the NQ – it’s not a fortune we banked here but it’s like that guy who got arrested for holding up some poor ole’ grandmother. When asked how he could rob the poor woman for a lousy five bucks he replied ‘well, five bucks here – five bucks there – it adds up!’

USD/CAD – boy – it doesn’t get much better than this – we bet on continuation lower and got more than we bargained for.

AUD/NZD – originally was hoping for a breach higher but it dropped below the 100-hour and thus became a short. I’ll be taking profits now.

Soybeans – coiled up, breached the upper diagonal and I don’t think it’s done just yet. Advancing my stop a little bit and will hold out for 1452.

Natgas – also was expecting a slam down here (per the prior pattern) but fortunately I don’t have strong opinions. The breach of that 100-hour was a long signal and I’ll be getting out here.

That’s how it’s done – even if you caught only half the setups you should be done for today.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BobbyLow

    LOL on the /NQ. I’m actually beginning to like the action on it and looking at $20 per Point as opposed to $50 per point is more conducive to my current risk tolerance.

    I also replied to i Bergamot on Oil last thread so I’ll put some of it it over here as well.

    FWIW, $WTIC had a P&F Low Pole Reversal on 3/19. All that meant was that even though there was and still is a bearish target, – demand for the stock (not to be confused with consumer demand because that doesn’t mean shit) was taking over supply and to be on the alert for higher prices. I actually Flipped my Short for Long last week while holding my nose.

    Not a hero here but I am a believer that none of this has to make any sense in a conventional/funnymental kind of way. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Disgus just ate my last comment so I’ll wait to see if it comes back.

  • BobbyLow

    Ah Hah!

    After it ate my comment I changed from the “Newest” to the “Oldest” and back to “Newest” again and it came back.

    Whateva.

  • AmazingLarry

    Mole – I swear you ran a poll awhile ago asking about participation frequency. Thought I remember when looking at the results after I voted to see the majority or only trading a few times per week, which surprised me. You have anymore numbers on that?

    You often complain that no one seems to be taking your set ups. Maybe there’s just not that many left trading frequently enough for them? I personally don’t trade currencies or futures contracts, but i do look at everything you put out and have learned a ton of valuable skills. I posted Friday one really successful trade (for me, anyway) using Net-lines which I’d have no clue about without ES. Just want you to know (again) your guidance doesn’t fall on deaf ears.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It seems to me that the retail space has shrunk by quite a bit, yes – that’s also what I’m hearing from other folks in the industry. However, there are still a ton of people out there and many of them are losing.

    I’m considering changing the format a little moving forward. Working on a bunch of new strategies that are on chart periods that would be great for intermittent (i.e. otherwise employed) traders. Will provide more details in the coming weeks. I gave up on making scalpius a subscription product as it was simply too entry sensitive. I would have to do it via C2 or some related service and I really don’t want to go in that direction. Another thing I’m considering is a little but exclusive fund – invitation only and maybe limited to about 50 – 100 people.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    The sphincters at Disqus answered my technical request about this issue
    To calrify, the sort order is stored using cookies, so you’ll want to enable these in your browser. Here’s some information on how to do this:

    http://help.disqus.com/customer/portal/articles/466235-enabling-cookies

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    This “Otherwise employed” is breathless with anticipation.

  • BobbyLow

    My disgus is totally fucked up now. Up until today, I had no problems other than getting used to “Comments Above/Below” etc.

    I know Rightside replied to me about cookies etc but that’s gone too. The Chrome Settings that are shown from disgus in his post are from an earlier version of Chrome.

    Boy, I’m glad they “improved” this.

    Not.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Thanks
    Keep us posted, please

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Passover – (DG smacks forehead)
    how could I forget, this lull hit me last year.
    theta burn leaves a mark.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    That, and Good Friday, and spring break, and bank heist in Europe (can’t have a run on a bank that stays closed… oy-vey)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I complained to disqus but they are not responding to me. May be time for a change.

  • badflightrisk

    Ditto on the new format

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I never got that outlook on holidays – why lose an entire week just because there’s one holiday? I guess it’s because you yanks are so vacation deprived – every single holiday you try to create what they call ‘puentes’ over here in Spain (bridge days to make it several days).

    I would understand Thursday being slow but today I show up for work – no questions asked. There’s coin to be banked after all and setups are setups. Either you want to trade for a living or you don’t – it’s pretty binary for me. You’ll never see me slack here just because there’s a holiday around the corner. Reason being – I LOVE what I do – period.

  • grednfer

    There are other ways of managing risk of an ES short…..other then holding one’s nose.

    Go short but buy a call…..5 point calls today….risk limited to $250. (es options are not that liquid overnight though)
    Go short buy /NQ ……approx 40% hedge….consistent with the year to date. YTD=137 to 57 (liquid 24 hours)
    Go short by /YM…….very little joy here as they surgically manage the spread…..YTD=137 to 143. Which is why when the spread gets wide……good trade!

    BTW…..YTD return on ES long NQ short = 80 points $4,000……over 100% ROC-cash on cash.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    you are mixing up a regular American holiday and jewish religious holiday.

    Passover started last night, but my boss left before lunch. There is a dinner, a prayer, plus nobody will give you hard time for observing religious holiday. Today is Passover itself, so none of our bosses are in (half of them are not even Jewish). Then if you are a hardcore jew – Passover lasts until mid-next week, so again nobody will give you hard time… and blah-blah-blah.

    They always tell me the same thing: “Hold the fort until I/we come back”. I will.

    On Thursday catholics will leave and tell me the same. I will

    It is EXACTLY like this in EVERY financial business in US

  • Joe_Jones

    Holidays or not, it’s like news, it does not matter as there are only algos trading anyway.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks.

    I looked at the ES Options and the spreads were pretty bad.

    I actually like the /NQ Futures and it is easier for me to manage risk with them. Also, I prefer that any and all /NQ action to be in and out the same day – win, lose or draw.

    It appears that you have a good system that is working for you.

    BTW, when I said I held my nose, I was holding it for going Long Oil last week. This was when we were (and still are) over supplied all while technically calling for an arguable marginal long. 🙂

  • grednfer

    There are other ways of managing risk of an ES short besides holding one’s nose.

    Short ES, buy a call todays calls are 5 points….risk fixed at $250.
    Short ES, buy NQ….approx 40% hedge…consistent with year to date….137 to 58
    Short ES, buy YM….not much joy here though as they surgically manage the spread, YTD – 137 to
    144(YM)

    BTW YTD return on ES long NQ short = 80 es points = $4000. Over 100% ROC cash on Cash.

  • grednfer

    Sorry for the multiple reply…..buy the first one got caught in the cloaking device….then came back

  • mrmik3

    TK from the slope was saying today how he blew up 3 FX accounts and how he hates FX and will never trade it again?.. saying something about volatility? … thats just crazy to me I love FX and from my very little experience trading, currencies seem to trend much more so than other instruments

  • grednfer

    The ES option spreads are great during the day….wide at night.
    The benefit of trading the spread between the equity futures is that the spread has a more consistent sine wave and if you are wrong…..its not for long and it always comes back around.

  • mrmik3

    Awesome setups and awesome article by peter thanks!

  • BobbyLow

    LOL No Problem

    Disqus is having a bad day today. 🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    Sounds like you are the chump in this cabaret. LOL. JK.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, for some reason he gets hundreds of comments per post – I do envy his ability to attract readers. Not sure how he does it – I guess misery loves company 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I do it for the few folks who put in the work and the time 😉

  • Wave_Surfer

    I was wondering if this link to stockcharts works and if anyone thinks it has any value.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p48553474046&a=274128151

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, it has value. Here’s mine.

    As you can see you do get corrections at the lower trendline – however you rarely know the magnitude of what’ll ensue. In general it seems to me that the bears continue to drop the ball when it comes to opportunities to exploit momentary weakness. Or perhaps they are simply being overwhelmed by Bernanke’s press.

  • convictscott

    He’s a chump and a losing trader who trades with a bias. He thinks bears somehow have the moral high ground, and every market drop is a “victory for common sense”. This is the *exact* worst attitude for any trader to have. When you think about it, 99% of ordinary people would say that praying for a market crash (that would affect everyone) is a pretty lowbreed thing to do.

    I think he is a WORLD CLASS chartist who will never bank a cent from the market because he believes he has the power to predict the future with charting. This is demonstrably false, and his only way of avoiding the fact that he has a negative expectancy method which consistently loses him money is to blame “the system” which is “out to get the little investor”.

    He’s a sucker, and most of those who huddle for warmth in the dark bearish corners of the internet with him (with the exception of Market Sniper, who is very good) are also losing suckers

  • mrmik3

    You put that very well.. he absolutely is a great chartist and MS is great.. what I don’t get about those guys is all the predictions and fluff that goes around there.. its like one day they are absolutley dead on and then the next they havent a clue what’s going on?.. Shit I’m a bear at heart but just look at the charts man I just don’t get what all the permabear Shit is about

    Anyway I just though it was a funny statement to say about currencies and TKs trading habits.. if you blow up accounts cuz of leverage it doesnt say Shit about FX BUT it says a lot about you!!

  • convictscott

    The simple fact is that PREDICTIONS don’t work. Never have, for anyone, not for Paul Tudor Jones or Soros either. In the words of Buffet “predictions are problematical, especially when they concern the future”.

    The market is a 1,000,000 variable equation. It is LUDICROUS to think you can “solve for x where time = y” by taking a quick 5 second look at a single chart. Demonstrable bull-plop. None of those “market oracle” types keep a record of their calls, right or wrong. Myself, I’m under 60%. Shithouse, right?

    All we have is risk/reward and opportunity.

    If you are a bear at heart OR a bull then you will go broke. Sorry. Any bias, even the small biases are out to get us all the time. The market is a dangerous place, like a prison filled with nasty guys with shanks.

    Success is based around seeing things for what they are, being open to every bit of new information flowing in the now moment, controlling yourself because you cannot control the market, and being comfortable with uncertainty.

    Ya know what – I DON’T know what the market will do tomorrow, but I know what I will do.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=222400168 Peter Levchenko

    great point scott. I have come across so many brilliant economist and guys good with their tech levels through my experience already, who know all the right stuff to trade but I have increasingly learned by observing the best in the business, that trading is first and foremost about DISCIPLINE. Secondly, its about RISK-REWARD. It’s about having the view that no one has a crystal ball and all you can do to maximise your chances of success is to find points of entry into your views with ASSYMETRIC risk reward (stacked in your favour). In that case, even if ur right 50% of the time, you still clean up. And thirdly and this is what separates truly special traders from just decent traders, is knowing when to leverage up into the right trade when its going your way…and also having the confidence to do that….

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=222400168 Peter Levchenko

    scott, and mole… guys i want to interest you in the following setup I Found on teh dailies. I am long USDJPY, due to the fact mainly that it trades like it wants to rally, and the market is cleaned out of longs after the squeeze…I also found a magic alignment of TECHNICAL context, which is what you and mole both like:check out the attached chart. its Daily USDJPY with 25/100 daily MAs and BBs. and also using 25day Bollinger bandwith, picking up tricks from scott…

    So a breach of 25dma yest, but an INSIDE day today and we close back above. Also check out the Bollinger bandwith its indicating volatility lows similar to what USDJPY experienced during a previous correction low… I am long quite abit already, with a stop thru 93.85 and I’ll probably be willing to flip it short there to trade the inside day… BUt at the moment all the odds are stacked in favour of a bounce from here towards 95.20 and beyond. What u guys think? Legit setup?

    INterestingly EURJPY also tracing out an inside day…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    You have no idea.
    Here I am, foreigner without diploma or any formal education, having a managerial position in large company. People look up to me, because I have a window office.

    But the joke is on me. The girl I replaced was getting paid almost twice as much. And I do more work…

    Still lucky to have a decent job. No complains here

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=222400168 Peter Levchenko

    To augment this setup further. I did some seasonality studies. Japan Fiscal Year End is approaching (31 mar). and there are big year-end flows that go through, mostly related to new toshin starts and japanese insurers buying back their USD hedges. This shows up on the chart I attached below, which shows daily normalised percentage moves in USDJPY for every year since 2005 between 20mar and 9th of april, ie leading up to and following the Fiscal Year end. You can see that for EVERY year except 2012, USDJPY has trended SIGNIFICANTLY higher within this period. This is definitely a very strong seasonal signal. The downside to this view is that in 2012 it also rallied since January but then actually sold off into fiscal year end, but EVERY OTHER year is positive and as you can see gains ranged from 1.65% to 4.8% !!! I think the empirical odds are yet again stacked in favour of a rally here, which supports my long USDJPY idea.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=222400168 Peter Levchenko

    ha spot on. I completely concur with everything you said.

  • mrmik3

    I just meant with the games and printing CB’s are doing its hard not to question how long the ponzi will go?.. but yes I agree and I remain very unbiased about everything and I would like to thank the moleman for teaching me to look at things in a different way and not listening to all the bull Shit which is really what it is.. I literally do not watch tv!!

    Thanks for your charts too Scott the white backdrop is a change for me and really lets me see the charts in a different regard.. I don’t know where I would be without Evil Spec!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=222400168 Peter Levchenko

    both USDJPY and EURJPY have just broken their inside days to the topside. I have added to my USDJPY longs.

  • convictscott

    Agree with you, there is more technical evidence that just the inside day but given the small range of the daily candle is an ASYMMETRIC risk/rewards situation as you say.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Good stuff. Thanks for sharing.

  • convictscott

    See my commentary on the chart. My core belief is that every single bar gives us more information about what price is trying to do. FYI the inside day comes AFTER 2 failed attempts to break a long running trend. Also inside day is the smallest range of the last 2 trading weeks, indicating large possibility of volatility breakout coming soon. Only place I differ from you is that since the technical evidence for an upmove is so overwhelming, if that DOES NOT HAPPEN, it means that something is seriously wrong. I would anticipate for this by placing my stops just below the lows and preparing to go short if the upmove fails.

  • convictscott

    Bollinger bandwidth is awesome right?

  • convictscott

    Losers of a feather flock together

  • convictscott

    I find black background charts really hard to read for some reason

  • convictscott

    Even just the slightest bit of that stuff is a snake poison that needs to be sucked out. Trust me, that’s how you miss out on massive moves

  • mrmik3

    .. I like gerbs t’s and fans too!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Probably.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Funny, for me it’s the opposite..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    whoa. leave me out of this bash fest.
    😉

  • Talon_III

    Simply awesome! Scott, yours and Peter’s discussion and analysis here is absolutely fantastic. This is a pair that I follow and I appreciate this additional insight. I agree with Peter that after Japan’s year end, USD/JPY should head higher and with all the inflationary banter that is coming out of Japan, this pair should already be heading much higher but it isn’t. I too am watching for a failed breakout of this inside day as it would be very telling IMO. My simply analysis has me looking for a possible retest of the Feb. 90.872 low even though I am looking to trade this pair higher, much higher. I have seen you post a similar chart to the one above and it simply fascinates me. I am a novice compared to your skills and others on this site and appreciate Mole’s guidance in keeping us focused on what is important and what is not. If you have a reference, link or perhaps some similar charts with this analysis that would help me learn how to read tape like this I would surly appreciate it. To read a chart as you have constructed is straight forward and makes perfect sense. To put together a chart like this is a whole different ballgame and simply brilliant! I am not looking for shortcuts. To trade successfully requires hard work, discipline, and emotional balance. All things that I strive for. Thanks.

  • Peter Levchenko

    yeah its like a new discovery for me… thanks man

  • convictscott

    Hey Euro just busted out of its low volatility Asian session range to the downside

  • convictscott

    You’re a freak! Why aren’t you asleep!

  • Peter Levchenko

    I agree I am now equally willing to flip it short thru 93.80ish

  • convictscott

    shoot me an email at sphillips at nologic dot com – this sort of analysis comes from a very good trader called Al Brooks, I have some of his materials I’ll send you.

  • convictscott

    Try it on a monthly chart!

  • AmazingLarry

    Wow, TOS you’re really doing a great job of pissing your customers off lately. I’m not getting any data feed on any futures since yesterday’s close except the EUR/USD right now. I’m seeing a live quote in the top right but no candles on anything else.

    Anyone else having issues? How about this: does POS work RIGHT for anyone anymore!?!

  • Careus

    I see you guys use 2 stdev as bands. I have played with that a bit. Somehow I got idea to use some fibonacci numbers for that. On attached chart you can see simple moving average (34) and attached BB with 1,618 stdev bands. I like how market rides above or at BB, it is like a trendline..

  • AmazingLarry

    *Edit* Got to work by messing with the “show extended session” tab. I’ve had to mess with this lately in order to go back further than a year on any time frame. First it was equities, then it was futures. Back and forth. Still, thanks a lot POS.

  • Ivan

    From surveys done way back when I was starting out (in the 80’s) the majority of people who ‘used’ charts were overwhelmingly bearish (inherently), whilst those who did not were bullishly orientated … no reason to believe that those stats are not valid today!

    Additionally, for every 1 futures trader there were 20 stock traders.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Peter Levchenko

    ha well now that USDJPY idea seems to be going somewhat t*ts up I am now ready for the scenario you first suggested scott. Thru 93.80 its LIGHTS out. Seems all the japanese guys are long USDJPY today and despite material buying that went through the market today it remains well offered. EURJPY just triggered stops through 120.00. I believe USDJPY later tongiht could easily be next. IM flat for now and willt rade the break of 94.65/93.80 range yet again….