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Nothing To See Here
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Nothing To See Here

by The MoleOctober 5, 2017

A funny thing happened this morning over at the ECB this morning. Mario Draghi must have finally found a moment to actually look at a EUR/USD chart as the ECB suddenly seems concerned about the implications of a 11% hike over the course of the past six months. Which to me stands in rather stark contrast with several constitutional trains wreck that are currently unfolding all across in Europe and most pressingly the one right now here in Spain. Not exactly bullish when Moody’s and other rating agencies are issuing recurring warnings about Spanish and Catalonian credit ratings.

2017-10-05_euro

Of course the Euro vigilantes won’t have any of it and if you expected a massive drop in the EUR/USD this morning then you are probably feeling pretty disappointed right now as it has barely budged. I think Draghi and the rest of the ECB may just have a deflationary problem on their hands. After haplessly having ignored a relentless and largely undeserved rally in the Euro over the past six months the complete lack of a response (even a limp-wristed one) will without doubt come at a price once the ECB is presented with Q3 and Q4 economic reports sometime next year.

However it’s quite possible that I’m greatly underestimating the man and that this is just a sneaky way of getting back at Wolfgang Schäuble who has been giving him nothing but grieve all through his tenure. Germany wants open borders, windmills and solar instead of fossil or nuclear energy, a ban on all internal combustion engines by 2030 (no joke), and of course a strong currency. And here at Evil Speculator we strongly adhere to the rule that when your opponent is digging a hole – don’t take away his shovel 

2017-10-05_DX

Anyway, the USD is actually starting to look bullish now. If it can hold its 100-hour SMA then it may have a shot at visiting its 100-day near 94. However, it’s still early days here and a little shake out at this stage would not be unusual.

2017-10-05_spoos_update

Our E-Mini campaign is starting to pay off in spates and as it’s approaching an MFE of 3R I’m moving my stop to just below 2530. In retrospect that inverse H&S I suspected last week seems to have launched yet another short squeeze from hell. Great fun being able to ride it up all the way… I hope some of you guys are with me in this one.

2017-10-05_soybeans_update

Soybeans has done absolutely zilch but I’m holding it as I still like the formation on the daily panel. Should that diagonal be breached then we are probably looking at yet another correction lower. Which would suck now but turn into a great long opportunity at the onset of a bounce.

2017-10-05_USDCAD_update

The gift that keeps on giving – a.k.a. the USD/CAD. What can I say – we’ve been playing this one like a fiddle and our trailing stop once again advances, this time to just below 1.245. I intent to ride this puppy all the way!

2017-10-05_gold_entry

Gold is a long entry for me here but I’m only risking 0.3R with a stop below 1266. A odds for a bounce here are within coin toss margins and the only reason I’m interested is that things usually unfold very directionally once momentum kicks in.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..somethings going on at open with copper. let us see if it follows thru..

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/18/f3/ec/18f3ec6a1d6931970966b25773a81b59.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hope you are feeling better mate.

  • Brishort

    From a P& F perspective, we may very well be witnessing NDX panic buy in progress.

    All P&F targets coiled up now exceeded.

    Breakout level around 6015 may be retested intraday but this is one impossible being short mid term. Any intraday “close the morning gap” shorts should be very very nimble.

    As a proxy mid term: Dow resistance @ 23K could be the proxy to try to assess when other equities markets could run out of breath for short toe dipping.

    Update on: Short ZB vs long ZN with 1R trail to let the market decide: ZB short won.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks! I am. Potassium, it’s a good thing.

    XLE, energy may be accumulating for next rung up.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56c1a2060a9e674a3465e4303d18c8313f2ab70fcc75d8149f146293f618f2c6.png

  • Julie

    Great you are feeling better GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    very likely, my glass dome ceiling keeps rising.

    6055 today. (red line)

    “tops are rounded” echos in my head.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97014310434

  • Julie

    GG Nice RUT chart yesterday showing the mov ave envelopes. I like how you do it !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    You have a chart KEM ? 60 min bol bands expanding without the lower band turning up yet. Going up into the 78% retracement and 61.8% fib arc
    Thanks
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks, only the best, for the best.
    a fluke really, I plugged RUT into my silver chart by accident.
    unless there *are* no accidents
    😉

    https://www.test-meter.co.uk/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/700×700/040ec09b1e35df139433887a97daa66f/f/l/fluke-multimeter-114-close-up.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    KEM?! no.
    all I can tell you is, below the daily 50, you’re a dead man.
    😉

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15238796856

  • HD

    What a rally! From the noted low before OPEX and Patriot day fractal. Not saying it’s over and not stirring the pot. 2544 commented yesterday. R/R in longs is diminishing IMO w several fib clusters. 2491 becomes important. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b25f3dbd32c224888c132cba9867dbd5763e72997e14f03adbb7a85c7328d3b.png

  • Tomcat

    Unfortunately my $HG short turned out to be a crapper but the Natgas Jan18/Oct18 spread is certainly keeping me afloat.

  • Julie

    GG I took 3/4 off yesterday for approx 80 cent gain and have moved stop up to 23,20 on remainder
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that makes you a stronger hand.
    You’ve learned well. padawan.

  • Julie

    Thanks GG !
    JULIE

  • Mary

    VIX in the 8s soon? Place your bets.

  • Julie

    Mary What do you think the CNN Fear and Greed Index will close today ? Yipes !
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    short crude, hit my mark

  • Mark Shinnick

    heads up miners

  • StockTalker

    Would steer clear of longs right now. Had to put a short back on /NQ though:)

  • HD

    100 handle rally over past 30 days. 4% move VIX was 14 Ding!

  • StockTalker

    Dollar scarring gold bugs ATM.

  • Mark Shinnick

    CB a $ breakout.

  • ridingwaves

    MNKD wow, I left a shit load of cash on that flyer….

  • HD

    fake news index 😉

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    15R could have been

  • StockTalker

    DX approaching 94

  • kudra

    darn, riding. I just took a peek at that one, and my jaw dropped. Still a great call. You continue to have a knack for bio. I’ve been dancing with AVEO. back in at 3.92.

  • ridingwaves

    Still have AVEO, they are approved drug so you can hold those, if they are in phase 1,2,3….take profit on runs…dilution and bad news are killers in this space…

    stalking a couple more symbols on verge of breakouts…will post if they activate..

  • Brishort

    Humm…. divergence on the Zero @ ES 2550

    Weakness into the close possible?? Looking to reload shorts and decided to close ZB short.

  • kudra

    Thanks, RW.

  • Brishort

    First in line of fire: short RTY

  • Brishort
  • Mark Shinnick

    Bunch of people shorting based on this I suppose, bunch of other blogging about going short this past day or so.

  • HD

    There are some very smart people including @slopeofhope, @Jessefelder, @northmantrader who post sentiment, vix, fear, ideas on a daily basis. I guess the concept is to fade “implied complacency” not sure how that is working for them.

  • Julie

    Brishort I would like to see $NDX a bearish close below the trend line …. Then short and add below the daily 5 ema Just saying https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cd93b6a985942556d1e715960e06899c563cf05f36f1293e116b7d465d775191.jpg JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…here is good one just in:
    “Friends dont let friends think “overbought” means a sign of imminent reversal.”

  • Julie

    KEM My target 24.47
    JULIE

  • HD

    I think most prefer the downside as it’s easier to trade when things get a little volatile. Every method works better when things move. This relentless grind is tuff to stay long on and especially rebuy if you get out.

  • Brishort

    Agreed with you . Since the P&F stop was not too far, I took a bit of a speculative entry at the P&F resistance. Not saying it’s the best plan, just one that minimizes my potential for errors. Shorting such trends is treacherous waters, but reward can be pleasing if properly done.

    It may need a few entry attempts to finesse if this is indeed the right move. If the resistance is to hold, we need more evidence. Hence that is the goal of the nearby stop. The Zero is giving me confidence to play it this way with the tight stop not too far decided on the P&F breakout point. If wrong damage is minimal.

    But clearly this one sided Christmas Tree ES 60 min vertical ramp shape needs another side…..

  • Brishort

    +1!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Brishort Way to many bulls on one side of the boat ! Gonna capsize soon !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Endlessly higher, where’s the roof Bubba?
    I have a rough idea. 😉

    S&P500
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36475260703

  • Julie

    Mark GDX What we discussed yesterday Going up into it’s declining 21 ema and 55 ema with volume declining. Today a bearish close below the daily 5 ema matching a support ….. Perhaps ….. W https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2af366425990e6924eb260dab5195d3190204f11264f761e9a6fbdf047d3967a.jpg atching the close JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I still have a roughly 2700 objective from some calculation some time ago. The whole rotten thing is outrageous and has hurt and will hurt many more persons for much longer than the natural mechanisms.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Gnarly consequences in play cross into yields, equities, $.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I still have a roughly 2700 objective from some calculation some time ago. The whole rotten thing is outrageous and has hurt and will hurt many more persons for much longer than the natural mechanisms. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/27a58c4c87d15afe75b71dcd150ce061e4d3a1616b6f42b046430200f1204bcf.jpg

  • Julie

    Mark Everything is gnarly …. One day at a time …. I am playing very close to the vest. I have done great with KEM and have a tight stop on remaining 1/4 and watching closely GDX the 21 ema still above the 55 ema and selling volume today is weak. The MACD is still above it’s signal line Perhaps a minor pullback not exceeding or matching the low on weak volume is an entry. Going to monitor GDX closely
    JULIE

  • HD

    using early low of year to high- the rallies:
    2009 40%
    2010 21%
    2011 flat
    2012 12%
    2013 24%
    2014 17%
    2015 flat
    2016 20%
    2017 12% so far this year. Of course this is the “Trump rally” so it’s the biggest ever. It is, just ask him. Clearly more room from a historical perspective.

  • Julie

    Very interesting Thanks Mark
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Cheap labor

  • Mark Shinnick

    If they have the right to work.

  • StockTalker

    lol

  • StockTalker

    Panic today

  • Julie

    Mark Another chart GDX Price hanging above conversion line (8) at 23.23 and lower cloud boundary. A bullish close above the daily 21 ema and today’s high at 23.49 tomorrow https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ebf60d4e545e14988552b98f73675d30ab5492ea52161a44094d2c5b67ab8ffc.jpg IMO a long JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s what makes a market :)

  • HD

    now if you consider 2011 and 2015 major tops we can measure both of those rallies as 105% and 101% 09-11 & 11-15. 1810 low in 16′, SPX has rallied only 41% so far.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What would 2700 calculate out to?

  • HD

    ~50% rally. I have 2712 as 5=1 target from 1810. More wave wanky- major 1 of Primary 1 was 703 points, so far major 1 of Primary 3 up is 742 points. Stronger.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • HD

    Major 2 down 2011 was 21%. Seems impossible now but that’s on the charts.

  • kudra

    out at 4.01

  • Ronebadger

    Highest in 3 years

  • Julie

    GDX strong support at 23.15 and today’s low 23.17. Gonna watch it on the 30 min chart tomorrow for a bearish 30 min candle closing below 23.15 for a possible short with an initial target 22.75. As stated below the 21 ema is above the 55 ema and the MACD is above it’s signal line. If it reverses and has a bullish close above today.s high 23.46 and the daily 21 ema approx. 23.53 closely matching the 23.46 high will go long
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Well well, that was quite a viagra shot at EOD. NDX finally broke up….
    To sum it up:

    – Missed Mole ES play,
    – Stopped=out on NDX
    – Wheat long play has never triggered,
    – With Mole on USD/CAD
    – Did OK on intraday short term trading but uncomfortable in general with the equities long play as unable to assess how late it is, or not, in the move. So will have to step aside until a bit more context.

    – The bonds remain in my view are the most interesting from a technical perspective.
    This may take a little more finesse and time to determine the exact direction of the next move, but clearly there is meat around the bone here.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1bd884176329253bfbc5cb8e0c49dedbaefa6ae7e417e17313cd26348ca22063.png

  • Julie

    Yeah Brishort NDX SPX and DOW basically a gap and go with the RUT consolidating today. RUT per GG’s chart yesterday presaged a consolidation or pullback. Have a great rest of day
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNwYapPXNkw

    15 Million Japanese can’t be wrong.

  • Brishort

    you too Julie! Have a great evening! time to enjoy life away from the screens…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think the horrific long term implications of Fukushima are just now coming to light.

  • ridingwaves

    this guy was trading SKF during the great depression and he did a great job on Fukushima until he shut down…I think he was forced….
    http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/

  • ridingwaves

    its up to 4.25 an ah, rumors of buyout a month ago at 20-30 dollars…why not put trailing stop on it instead….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • JH

    uncanny resemblance to Union vs Confederate territory