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Off To The Races!
98

Off To The Races!

by The MoleJune 6, 2013

So far it’s been a great day as we have lift-off on several of the setups I have been pimping here for the past week. Before we revisit those let’s take a quick look at where we are on the equities side:

The S&P E-Mini is pushing its luck by dipping its toe into the large volume hole which terminates near 1594.75. As I’m typing this it has bounced back a little but and I’m seeing some tepid buying interest. Let’s see if they just tried to scare the children – if you put your stop where I told you then you should be in good shape right now as its currently plotting around 1608.

The NQ will have to push above 2936.5 in order to reverse that weekly NLSL it dropped through today. This candle concludes tomorrow, so let’s see what happens there tomorrow at this time. The implications of a weekly sell signal are obvious but the fat lady hasn’t sung yet.

Alright, let’s take it from the top. I have been pushing this setup all week and I hope you kept your eye on the EUR/USD today as it’s finally taken off. Great entry there at the 100-day SMA (and 100-week SMA) and although we may see a retest of the SMA we now have support below. As you can see the next and final hurdle will be 1.35 – if that one goes then I’ll probably have to either start charging you guys in Euros or raise my subscription fees over the summer. Better lock in those old rates now, folks! 😉

In that context – the Dollar is back at its 100-month SMA and it’s unclear if it’s holding there or if we see a drop back to that lower diagonal. The daily suggests the latter unless we see a pullback here quickly. Damn you Draghi!!

BIDU was another one on our plate this week and I suggested that the 25-day SMA would aid the 100-hour in driving it higher. So far so good – there’s nothing for you guys to do right now. That would be a nice hammer candle on the weekly if it holds.

AAPL – it has let everyone guess for days now and today it decided to drop lower. I admit picking the direction here wasn’t easy but if you follow my work then you know that the breach of the 25-hour today was a give-away. If you missed it – don’t worry, chances are we’re going to see a retest of the new resistance above.

NG – another one on our plate and I did suggest that this Bollinger compression would not last long. Again, tough to pick the right  direction but it did remain below the 25-day SMA for the past two sessions and then fell off the plate. If you got in – take profits!

Crude – it’s been slow going here for a while but I served this one up several times. The 25-hour SMA was our guide in the past two sessions and it finally decided to push above that 100-day SMA and a daily NLBL. That means lift-off and as it seems to be converted into high octane rocket fuel. Let’s see if it holds – again a retest cannot be ruled out but we now have new support waiting below.

If you managed to just grab one or two of the setups provided this week then you should be in great shape. And that’s what we do here at Evil Speculator – every single trading day of the year. Objective market analysis sprinkled with good helping of technical setups – trading without emotions, rumors, headlines, or drama.

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • amokta

    Nice re-cap!

  • gsavli

    FWIW, ES now up +0.3%, DAX futures still -1%. ESTOXX50 -1.5% (they correlate even better with ES than DAX).

  • stocktrader6

    Looks like Mr Big Ben pushed the on button>…

  • gsavli

    and Mr. Draghi pushed the other one.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I guess shorts blew their load and now it’s lights out.

  • amokta

    Bernanke rises from the dead, the markets are saved!
    Ok, lets not get carried away – stick to Moles setups c/o above

  • amokta

    Where are the stop-losses?

  • bdoone

    VIX step 2 EOD possible also

  • Skynard

    Shorting this rocket just like the rest:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Kerberos

    The bait-and-switch, car dealer mentality of the wall street old-timers just doesn’t hold weight anymore in the age of the Internet. WE are now the smart money.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    QQQ’s failed to close gap by 4 cents.

  • AmazingLarry

    Not at cat, that’s a dying fish with a long tail trying to swim back to the surface for one last breath of air before it’s too late. 😀

  • AmazingLarry

    That was a shit ton of contracts moved on Bucky today. Same for the Yen, but not comparatively as much as the dollar. Hot potato, here it comes…..

  • amokta

    Ok, long closed, there may be some more, but the trend is down, so bailing

  • Skynard

    It wants that hourly sloping trendline again.

  • Skynard

    Full short the /ES.

  • ridingwaves

    Full Long CHTP

  • amokta

    Not again :-)

  • amokta

    Bit late to be long, or more to come?

  • newbfxtrader

    Dont see anything on the zero for a short?

  • convictscott

    Yeah you’re awesome!

  • newbfxtrader

    What are you doing awake at this time…

  • newbfxtrader

    What are you doing awake at this time…

  • convictscott

    Its actually a bit late for me – early riser

  • newbfxtrader

    Bullish engulfing candle on aud/usd? I took some longs last night. Also kiwi.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Zombie comes back to life.
    Damn Pavlov dogs and their 50day MA

  • Skynard

    Stopped, notice any resemblance to the last rip?

  • convictscott

    Th3_Acist – how are you managing your inside day long? You had a 4R winner intraday (slightly less now) which for an inside day is an outside the bell curve? I bet you are confused as fuck :)

  • convictscott

    Technically its an outside period with a bullish close. I got long a very small position on the lower bollinger which is highly speculative and only in very specific circumstances (3rd push to downside, downside capitulation after 2 sided trading, sideways lower bollinger after huge move). There is no strict long setup yet, though if you were watching Mole’s 25 hr SMA you would have seen it “jump the fence” and kick off

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Legit Step 2

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Legit Step 2

  • convictscott

    Also your usdjpy inside day whip? Another massive win – time to trade properly and not turn into an idiot :)

  • convictscott

    Also your usdjpy inside day whip? Another massive win – time to trade properly and not turn into an idiot :)

  • gsavli

    incredible pump when compared to miserable european action today. hourly looks strong and daily lower indicators turning up on ES.

  • gsavli

    incredible pump when compared to miserable european action today. hourly looks strong and daily lower indicators turning up on ES.

  • gsavli

    also – AUD/JPY has some support here:

  • gsavli

    also – AUD/JPY has some support here:

  • convictscott

    As a moderator I can ban you any time I want. You exist here because I don’t care about you. It is clear to those who know that you don’t trade for real, you do not know what you are taking about. Every post you make reveals your lack of knowledge and makes you look even stupider than you are. Surely you have a reason to be wasting your time like this

  • convictscott

    As a moderator I can ban you any time I want. You exist here because I don’t care about you. It is clear to those who know that you don’t trade for real, you do not know what you are taking about. Every post you make reveals your lack of knowledge and makes you look even stupider than you are. Surely you have a reason to be wasting your time like this

  • Joe_Jones

    My patience with this A-hole has reached its limit. Please ban this MF eyesore.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If you really knew who you are talking to you would be pissing yourself mate. Everyone is a big mouth on the Internet – trust me, that’s where you want to keep it.

  • ds2

    2 steps into a VIX buy. Let’s see if tomorrow co-operates.

  • newbfxtrader

    With all the glorious setups here you would think he would want to join in the money making scheme….Just look at the past couple days here.

  • newbfxtrader

    Missed that one. Now I know. Next time!

  • Th3_Acist

    Just got home from work…Holy Shit…Confused is a nice way of saying it lol…I’m assuming cut these things now is the play…sweet jesus. Outside the bell curve? I’m assuming statistical anomaly so it’s best to close out the trade.

  • Th3_Acist

    Just got home from work…Holy Shit…Confused is a nice way of saying it lol…I’m assuming cut these things now is the play…sweet jesus. Outside the bell curve? I’m assuming statistical anomaly so it’s best to close out the trade.

  • convictscott

    hit me up on skype: wealthawareness I’ll walk you through the process in 5 mins.

  • convictscott

    As a general rule when you have a high probability long setup (retest variation buy at lower bollinger in long running trend) which fails, triggering a setup in the opposite direction it is worth taking.

  • BobbyLow

    Ain’t that the truth? LMAO

    I removed one of his comments a while back. I’ve been working on a couple of projects and haven’t been able to participate as much as usual.
    I guess your patience limits must have increased cause I thought you would have zapped him by now. :)

  • convictscott

    It is worth noting that with the outsized moves in currencies across the board today it will be tempting to trade todays Asian session. The odds are extremely high that today will be a choppy, hard to trade shitfest. Strongly recommended to stand aside

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t see that in Podio! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You can thank that fucker when I raise my sub fees… $@&%#!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Plus it’s a Friday…

  • Ivan K

    I trust you realise that by taking a position in the Yen and the Cable you were actually trading just 1 market … correlations can have a dramatic effect on an account … either in a negative or a positive way … a mega trap for many players.

    The other trap is volatility correlations.

  • convictscott

    Very very good point

  • convictscott

    I think you would cry if I made it even more complex!

  • Skynard

    Serious whipsaw out there past week or so.

  • Ivan K

    The biggest issue with both directional correlations and volatility correlations is that they are both moving targets … hence making them difficult to be dealt with pre-emptively … and thus leading to ‘wild’ swings in equity … which, in turn, de-stabilise the trader … which in turn can have a negative effect on the equity curve … which … etc!

  • convictscott

    I suspect the correlated moves across the board are start of the market going from a period of shitty whipsaw to a period of nice clean trends.

    Good times cometh

  • convictscott

    Been there done that. I remember my first 10R losing day due to correlations

  • convictscott

    Highest probability is for a lower close inside day which would make it both an outside/inside period and a retest variation buy ip for Monday. The AUD bears will undoubtedly have a crack today (sell the rip has worked for quite some time) – rather than preempting I think its best to objectively observe the strength of the bearish mojo today.

  • Ivan K

    These have been ideal for my Aggressive Ambush Ruleset … other rulesets will shine when the character of the market changes … one of the joys of having an arsenal of not only setups, but also RBT’s.

  • convictscott

    Agree 1000% – the more optimized for a given market type a system is – the better the performance. BBR holds its own across the board, but it really shines in rising volatility markets

  • convictscott

    It is fascinating to me how *excellent* the setups look in the Asian session, but they have a very low win rate. Look at this, inside period long at the 60 min moving average support, after a strong move up. This is a setup I would take every single time – check it later on I bet it doesn’t work

  • Skynard

    Lol, agree. Play through Sept

  • convictscott

    This action from audusd yesterday is perfect examples. On your volstat/stretchstat it was mostly normal volatility downtrend

  • Skynard

    AUD breached this monthly trend line again. Flirting right now :)

  • DarthTrader

    I don’t know there Sky I could easily see a slight pullback overnite or at 8:30 AM followed by another move up tomorrow. Tracing out an ABC up and creating a Bearish Gartley Signal.

    If so that would yield a very clean sell point. This market has been giving some clean signals. I banked coin at the close but still have some longs. A gap away open to the downside would not be a big surprise tho

  • Joe_Jones

    Scott,

    Do we have a valid setup on Silver weekly chart? i.e whichever way the previous candle breaks

  • convictscott

    Yes we do, a retest variation buy. You should note that the same pattern exists on gold, but since gold did not break its prior low and silver did then gold is stronger.

    For me (Ivan disagrees) the spike discrepancy between the lows is enough to disqualify the potential short setup, I would personally only take this from the long side. It is an excellent setup.

  • convictscott

    And what a surprise – didn’t work for shit

  • Joe_Jones

    thank you mate.

  • convictscott

    I am currently long and my trade plan is to roll the daily trade and manage it on the weekly basis

  • convictscott

    I agree – the increase in volatility has made for highly tradeable moves and clear signals across many different TA methods.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Spy counterspy.
    some algo playing perfect setups, is getting gamed by a know better algo.
    the war/counter war continues.

    or like a perfect woman, if you meet one, run away it’s (likely) a trap.

  • Joe_Jones

    same here. once it takes off it should give a good run.
    there is succession of OP, IP, OP in the last 3 days. I see Ivan uses them quite a bit in his charts but I have no clue on how to play those

  • Joe_Jones

    chart

  • Joe_Jones

    Nikkei monthly chart is really ugly

  • convictscott

    It is helpful to understand what an OP actually means. What it means is that both long and short traders got stopped out and replaced with fresh players. Fresh participants have a shorter timespan, closer and tighter stops and jump at the first sign of trouble. Weak hands.Typically an OP happens close to change of direction in trending moves, 3 bars from the change would be classic. In low volatility sideways markets OP’s are IMO meaningless, representing the continual tug-of-war around the moving average zone.

    As a setup an OPIP is quite a different beast from an IP in terms of win rate, R distribution of winners, etc etc.

  • Joe_Jones

    very interesting. Maybe we should have a small part in the cheat sheet section for set-ups that have the highest win rate?

  • convictscott

    Lose the word “should” from your trading vocabulary :) It is an excellent setup with favorable risk/reward characteristics. That is good enough.

  • convictscott

    Actually win rate is the smallest part of tradeability of a given setup. Standard deviation of winners, max drawdown, time spent in drawdown, opportunity (number of setups)… all of these things are far more important. Neatly encapsulated IMO in one easy number called SQN – system quality number

    Imagine 3 setups.

    Setup A) 75% win rate, but each win is on average .6R
    Setup B) 50% win rate, the wins are average 1.3R and the losers average .8R (this is roughly what I do in the real world)
    Setup C) 30% win rate. This time half of the winning trades are 5R winners and half are 2R winners

    Setup C) is on paper the most profitable in R at the end of the year, and setup A the worst. However with a 30% win rate you would have to endure long stretches of losers. A peak/valley drawdown of 30R would not seem out of the question (actual drawdown depends on standard deviation). If you were trading the “conventional wisdom” 2% risked per trade you could be down 60% at any point during the year. This would suck balls.

  • tradem4alpha

    What is the formula to calculate your indicator stretchstat (if you can share it of course)?

  • convictscott

    As a general rule if you have a choice between a setup in gold and a highly correlated setup in silver, take the stronger one (long) or sell the weaker one short.

  • convictscott

    It is explained well in the youtube videos linked on this page
    http://kansasreflections.wordpress.com/tradestation/

  • tradem4alpha

    Thanks Scott.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What did VolStat and StretchStat say?

  • Skynard

    Sold AUD yesterday 9610, looking for the flush out move today if the dollar can stage a rally.

  • convictscott

    volstat high – stretchstat right in the middle

  • DarthTrader

    Greenspan on CNBC saying things that would normally be bearish for market. Like needing to get rates higher and get out of “Accomodation” No response from market . . . this will be revisited after market has made it’s morning moves in my opinion.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They’re just clearing out the retail shmucks before they drive it higher. This game is so old it’s not even funny.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Volatility rising in a sideways trend. Interesting.

    BTW, based on what I’m seeing it should have triggered to the downside but you plastered over those candles a little.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Market change may be defined as rising VolStat and flat StretchStat.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just love to complain :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    OR… you can just fuck her brains out.

  • Ivan K

    My preference is always the source as opposed to merely a derivative … hence the Language of the Market ‘tells’ me whether the market is doing a foxtrot or a polka.