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Off To The Races
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Off To The Races

by The MoleJanuary 3, 2017

And we are officially ticking in 2017! I trust you enjoyed a memorable holiday season and are now ready to slowly abandon each and every New Year’s resolution you committed yourself to just last week. Personally I’m pretty proud of myself as I survived yet another Christmas without adding a single pound. Plus I spent much of the past 10 days collaborating with Scott and a few others on an improved version of Scalpius. I’ll be sharing more on that that as we’re forward trading the system over the coming two months.

Now this being the first trading session of the year I’m not exactly eager to jump into new positions with both feet. So to properly kick off the year let’s first run through some of our key charts to get a general idea of where we are at.

2017-01-03_spoos_update

And here it is – our first chart of the year, which of course is E-mini. It’s sitting pretty right now with prices still above the 25-day SMA but having reversed from the nose bleed highs above the upper 100-day Bollinger. As long as our current LT inflection point of 2236 remains intact this is actually a pretty good base from which to enter long again. However as I said already – let’s give it a session or two to weed out some of that new year reshuffling we’re most likely to see.

2017-01-03_gold

Gold continues to look tired and quite frankly there’s nothing to be said here unless it reverts back to 1140 where I may consider a tiny long position if it manages to hold.

2017-01-03_silver

Silver hasn’t seen a decent bid in ages and the daily panel (on the left) seems to indicate that it’s losing more and more of its mojo. We traded through an awesome long opportunity near the 17 mark which however turned into a failure. For now I don’t see much of an edge here unless you’re holding short.

2017-01-03_crude

Crude however is looking very perky these days after a sideways range that tormented us all last year. The weekly panel is pushing toward a major inflection point near 55 where we’ve got the 100-week SMA plus the upper 25-week Bollinger. The 25-month SMA plus a monthly NLBL at 56.18 are not far away and if it manages to push above all that then we are truly off to the races here and most likely for the rest of this year. This thing has been stuck inside a pressure cooker for a long time and could be trading at 80 this summer. Caveat: crude is very event driven and most likely will respond strongly to whatever happens after January 20th.

Quite a bit more below the fold. If you’re not a sub then start the year off in style and sign up for Evil Speculator Gold right now!

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ZigZag

    Happy New Year! This year, I resolve to buy more of what’s going up, and sell more of what’s going down.

  • Ronebadger

    …I don’t know what that means…

  • Billabong

    PMs hitting HOD….

  • Billabong

    Hopefully, your short/long strategy matches up … LOL

  • Tomcat

    I think you know what it means…don’t fight the trend…unless it means something else,,,then I have no idea

  • Billabong

    CL new LOD … Guess the production cut announcement bounce this morning is over.

  • StockTalker

    Panic sell

  • ridingwaves

    looks more like profit taking/hurt new bulls on both CL and NG….I added down here to both but I’m playing longer timeline than most here

  • Billabong

    I saw a piece on predictive linguistics (wasn’t familiar with it). Anyway, the first 45 mins discussed financial stuff and silver was mentioned as a rocket ship starting as early as today … hmmm? The speaker lost me on the last 15 mins of the presentation when he started talking about the whooo whooo moment and pyramids on the Antarctic. So I bit the bait and researched/looked up pyramids on Antarctica and found hundreds of pages on the subject … the best ones were secret trips by Obama, followed by Kerry to see some TS stuff.

  • Billabong

    Or ST bull trap…

  • ZigZag

    In reviewing my trades for last year, I need to make more long trades on days when the market is up, and vice versa. Simple concept, harder execution.

  • Ronebadger

    I was just being a badger…

  • Billabong

    Looks like New Year’s rally had a reversal going into European close…

  • evilasevildoes

    heard that nut

  • StockTalker

    See if 52 holds up

  • captainboom

    Please tell me you knew you were wasting your time when you started…

  • Yoda

    Happy New Year Rats. Hope that it will be a prosperous one for all of you.

  • Tomcat

    OIL wow…carnage???

  • StockTalker

    See if it can catch /NG:)

  • StockTalker

    Fugly hourly candles hourly /ES

  • evilasevildoes

    wheat new lows also zb -ub spread below-9.24 looks fun

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he’s the guy that promised rivers of water were going to destroy the west coast.
    then disappeared for a few months to lay low, when it didn’t happen.

  • Yoda

    Miners having a great day..so far

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    That guy has been around for a while. Although he looks and sounds completely nuts, everything i ever checked from his blubber turns out completely correct. I think he is an excellent source of some real science and its practical application.
    As for ‘predictive linguistics’ – I remember him admitting years ago that financial applications are 50/50 at best, with other uses being more actionable (or something along these lines)
    jm2c

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot
  • Tomcat

    brilliant

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I’m very confused by the euro/ gld action. Thought they would be both moving together. Ended up ditching both longs on Fri. Just sitting in China, biotech, and old VXX puts that might just chop for a while.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..race cars require oil and gas.
    There is a upstream/downstream relationship. Muwahaha.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cfd940e8a41da51775b5119251eaaa4a3430fb9d86575bd9e5b293cba69bed28.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III