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Once Again Only The Paranoid Survive
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Once Again Only The Paranoid Survive

by The MoleJanuary 6, 2017

Having paid tribute to it right here on several occasions over the past years [1][2][3][4] I was once again reminded of late Andy Grove’s favorite motto earlier this morning when I saw the flash crash in the silver futures. Apparently rumor has it that someone (Mexico.. cough.. cough) dumped around $200 Million notional of Silver in just a few minutes. Which presented us all with a great entry opportunity – twice – if you happen to be a high frequency AI directly hooked into the IEX pipe reading this. Incidentally if you are then let me be first to announce that Evil Speculator welcomes our glorious new robotic overlords. 

2017-01-06_silver_update

Anyway, the take away lesson from all this was that we I was pretty explicit about not chasing silver higher earlier in the week and, quite to the contrary, were looking for an opportunity to play inverse swings which were clearly on the horizon. Of course the exact pace of events was out of my hands and as of right now we are relegated to waiting for yet another retest of the 100-hour SMA. If it comes after volatility dies down a little then I will be sure to highlight it here.

2017-01-06_crude_update

Some good news: Crude continues to play ball and it is now time to advance our stop higher. Where exactly is up to you (and depends on your campaign management) but I would definitely keep it below 53.3 if you plan to ride this pony higher. Caveat: there will be bumps on the way and crude can be a bit of a rough ride, but clearly once she gets going she doesn’t look bad and thus it is indeed worth riding out the initial hassle.

2017-01-06_copper_update

Copper has reverted back and painted a spike low to which I will now advance my stop. If that one breaches it would most likely stop me out, thus given the dynamics I may as well lock in a bit of profit. FWIW this one really needs to get out of the gate or she’ll die in the cradle. Upside for any laggards: this is a prime entry opportunity.

2017-01-06_vea_financhill

Now VEA came across my radar this morning as it’s touching its upper 25-day BB and in general has pushed back into a reversal range below 37. The Financhill seasonal stats suggest that it’s heading into a weak month, thus…

2017-01-06_vea_setup

I propose a short setup but only after a dip below that daily Net-Line Buy Level at 37.46. If that happens or we see a RTV-S then I’ll be short with a stop > 37.7.

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german_beer

Well, it’s Friday afternoon on my end and I have important business (ahem) to attend to. Congrats on surviving the first trading week of 2017. And if you’re Spanish or Latino: ¡Un feliz día de los reyes!

Prost!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    was it Mexico or just the NFP regular beat down on metals….Mexicans like their silver….me thinks it was the latter…Miners are already green again…

  • http://batman-news.com RacerXX

    Happy New Year Mole!

    https://youtu.be/0QrBxWcBXow

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    filled that gap I see…

  • ridingwaves

    GLander,
    JPM biotech conference next week will either push those indexes up or at least provide some volatility…..XBI and IBB above the 100sma is a good start for those indexes…

    https://s29.postimg.org/vac6ydf5j/XBI_daily_1617.png

  • Tomcat

    I am long IBB too. But maybe I should have stuck with AGN, that this has been on fire since late last year.

  • Tomcat

    Another ticker that I added is REGN. IMO this weakness is to be bought.

  • ridingwaves

    an AGN move down to 210 or bit lower would create a beautiful cup and handle on daily….GILD is not a bad option here either, looks like a triple bottom if their is such a thing….
    MDT might be nearing a bottom also and it pays 3% yield….my buddy works for competitor and thinks it’s attractive here….PMO has turned bullish…

  • Yoda

    Another buying op

  • Tomcat

    Cup and handle would a bullish sign then? It may be a dumb question, but not very familiar with all the technical terms.

  • ridingwaves

    yes, the cup and handle for gold and silver back in 2010-11 was a barn burner and pushed it up to the 2KGC 44SI level….they are very bullish when confirmed….

  • Tomcat

    DOW 20k ladies and gentlemen

  • Ronebadger

    DOW high at 19999.63…close enuf for gubment work…

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve got 19,999.63 for a Dow high so far before backing off again. It’s in C T Mode. :)

  • Tomcat

    Whats .43 point between friends??? 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Thanks RW,
    I have the same target too

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh the longer term pattern looks like really good base. I added a bit not a lot as I already have enough XBI

  • Tomcat

    Do I miss-remember you had a target of 20,100 something???

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    It’s just a number but maybe we can get a meaningful correction after it it get’s there?

    Speaking of a meaningful correction, I was just thinking of the guy who went all in short the Naz with a very large postion via QID in the mid 30’s a few months ago. He was positive that the markets would crash and he was going to stay short until he got paid. QID is now in the low 20’s.

    This is probably what getting into too much Bear Porn will get you. Same goes for too much Bull Porn. So not only will this kind of Porn make you go blind, It’ll also make you become poor and blind. :)

  • Tomcat

    Is asking for an illustrative chart on $AGN [cup and handle] too much?

  • Tomcat

    Well call me crazy, but I am shorting $TSLA here:
    http://schrts.co/nGBrl5

  • Yoda

    LOL, well said.

  • Yoda

    There is also next week for the “magical” 20K to be breached

  • ridingwaves

    kind of crude, my screen shot tools don’t allow for curved lines %#$
    the cup could start higher from here and the handle can extend further down….but if it plays out the move off the handle will be explosive…..
    https://s23.postimg.org/axk248unf/AGN_cup_and_handle.png

  • ridingwaves

    Glander, you are on fire right now….cheers..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    slightly crazy, also depends on your time frame.

    for me. a range play, this would be the place for a reverse like April last year.
    but, BUT – if the weekly is going to break higher, say to 250. you will be ran over by a 14 month (have gone nowhere) breakout, fast! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8231aad17a999fa5af9d78cbc8fd2cae0808af00287f23b395cbe742bc978d3e.png

    EDIT: in a pure risk:reward, $18 to the upside & $30 to the downside.
    that’s under 2R yes? not worth it IMHO.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s in the disqus link up above.

    the number increases every week as the price climbs higher.

  • Tomcat

    Thank god my memory was right :)
    20,155
    I feel younger having remembered that

  • ZigZag

    The /TF (russell) is saying it’s not waiting around for dow 20k. Been squirrely all day and I’m glad to get out even. Normally I find it easier to read the /tf ticks than the nyse ticks, but they just weren’t acting right all day.

  • Tomcat

    What makes me a bigger fool is that I went against my own thinking (from 22 days ago)
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/the_yellen_crush/#comment-3053464449

  • Ronebadger

    SPY volume…progressively smaller each day this past week
    HAVA GOOD WEEKEND!

  • captainboom

    Where did you find that picture of me?

  • BobbyLow

    The Russell has been pretty choppy since December 22. It’s had about a 30% run up since November 8th. Could be just year end BS or its getting close to a swing short. Needs to break out of this choppiness one way or the other though.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I would wait for a RTV or at least a more pronounced spike high, agree with the GoldGerb.

  • Yoda

    Dark, this is.

  • captainboom

    I have a business associate who lives in Tultepec, and I reached out immediately upon hearing of this to ascertain his well being. He’s fine, but knows people who were killed or injured. I was actually very close to that market last fall, when on a business trip.

    At least they have the support of the government in rebuilding. Something you’d never see in the states.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38412126

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Business trip to Mexico – I’m in the wrong business! 😉

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I have zero interest in RUT now. Long or short. Not that I use COT data as actionable stuff it is showing extremes https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff77b0f0b1b33040006b11b12a7f311f689a77784d1ba656b2b38b494e0e2e77.jpg

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    9 out of 10 say avoid consumer staples so I am going to do some research this weekend on potential long term longs

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe :-)

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Plan a visit to Tultepec in early March, and it will make Las Fallas in Valencia seem pretty tame. They have a big festival with some crazy fireworks shit going on. I haven’t attended yet, but it’s on my list. Safety glasses, ear plugs, and non-flammable clothing are recommended. Yes, even for spectators.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Ive looked at it and havent quite figured out a play on it yet. Technically don’t see great setups and the underlying stocks aren’t high beta. Maybe a play for the IRA?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III