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One More For The Road
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One More For The Road

by The MoleAugust 26, 2009

Public Service Announcement: I am leaving for San Diego tomorrow morning – so this will be my last post until Monday morning. Fujisan is back in the good ole’ U.S. of A. and has volunteered to occasionally put up a comment cleaner. I will check in every once in a while but don’t expect any charts or analysis – I’m taking the rest of the week off. Subscribers know where to find me – I have set the Zero and all trading signals on auto-pilot and with some luck it won’t all blow up in my absence πŸ™‚

Here’s one more for the road: As you have you been painful witness to – the tape is painting some complex sideways fourth wave in my estimation – tough to read. All three scenarios are still in play and I do expect more upside before she breaks for good. It is possible that we will paint the the final leg of Primary {2} in my absence – which is just fine by me as I’m well positioned at this point. I will of course monitor the tape whenever I can – with good luck we touch 1045 and I get to go on my final shopping spree.

I think I have made myself fairly clear by now – but in case you have been spending the past week in an Al Quaeda cave somewhere here’s Mole’s motto for the end of August: Sell The Rips!

May the market daemons have mercy on your soul!

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BrassMonkyBalls

    i still think we have a downturn before we reach much higher and thinking 1005 before spike back up. I have 61.8% fib at 1058 so after the dip then the melt up and thinking September is where we see it. Usual SPX chart updated

    http://screencast.com/t/00nfFWXzTku

    Then again, S&P where you at brother?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x28jaeyX2s

  • cramar

    So let's see…three colors, three possibilities. Wait! There is at least one more. Straight down from here!!! Naw, couldn't happen right? Reality would not follow another path other than the three presented here…or could it?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    have a good trip Mole, my work is done, i'm 100% short.

    some of my shorts: http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Have a nice trip, Mole!–in the meantime
    Don't blame me if INTC goes to 20.5 ,short it at 19.85
    here's the chart
    http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/?p=91

  • molecool

    That would be green.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    $COMPQ — Confluence of Death.
    http://tinyurl.com/mahqq6

  • rhae

    nice chicken

  • de3600

    Safe trip

  • rhae

    SPY daily, my odds favor 90/10 as the top being in… Right or Wrong, it really makes no difference. If one uses good risk management you will always be right, over time.

    SPY daily tagged a perfect golden fib top, so I put in fib ext. targets.
    http://screencast.com/t/GIuILV1m9

  • cramar

    No! Green shows a rally first to 1045 then down. I'm talking about no rally and down. Similar to orange, but not reversing at 980…just keeps going down. This would have to be a new color, say purple.

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Japanese mkt. currently down 1.7%, es futures take it in stride.

  • Eris

    The Globex ES crowd is probably counting on the European markets to rally…

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Leaves are falling all around,
    Its time I was on my way.
    Thanks to you, Im much obliged
    For such a pleasant stay.

    But now its time for me to go,
    The autumn moon lights my way.
    For now I smell the rain,
    And with it pain,
    And its headed my way.
    Ah, sometimes I grow so tired,
    But I know Ive got one thing I got to do,

    Ramble on,
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3HemKGDavw

  • steveo77

    I have posted some nice charts…bearish of course. Although I give at least a 60% chance of a ES pop to 1045 1050 zone. But since that is what most people expect…the market may free dive prior to most people getting loaded with shorts and puts.

    Also lot of new posts, just not pimping them out per Mole's request to restrict my pimping activities. BTW this Kayak grew into a boatload.
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/kayak-o

  • fuw

    Euro/usd is setting up another head-shoulders on a 1h chart, to complement the larger one seen on a 4h chart. The action today looks very similar to yesterday, with strengthening during european hours, and I suspect another sharp drop as soon as the trendline is busted.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/fuw/folders/Jin

  • steveo77

    Yeah, thats also a nicely proportioned bear flag. Time to short with a pretty tight stop, since the Hal 9000's still got game.

  • Jigsaw

    That same thought crossed my mind. Ever since the 730 area the blogs have been waiting for a sell off. Now everyone is waiting for the 1050 area. A slight jump above resistance and even the bears will pile on for the ride, then the plug get pulled. The perfect storm for the MM's….

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Well, I changed my avatar and was feeling evil.

    Went back to the numbers) and first suffered (oops, my opinion on the november low seemed wrong), then… Could this be it?

    “Bear” with me

    2000 TOP ——- ——- ——- 1557
    P1 ——- ——- ——- 1371 -186
    P2 ——- ——- ——- 1567 196 -1.053763441 (ok verbotten, but in real usd?)
    OCT 2007 TOP ——- ——- 1567
    P3 W1 ——- ——- 1277 -290
    P3 W2 ——- ——- 1440 163 -0.562068966
    P3 W3 1 1133 -307
    P3 ——- 2 1265 132 -0.429967427
    P3 ——- 3 i 1106 -159
    P3 ——- 3 ii 1167 61 -0.383647799
    P3 ——- 3 iii 909 -258 1.622641509
    P3 ——- 3 iv 1006 97 -0.375968992
    P3 ——- 3 v 741 -265 1.666666667 524 -1.706840391
    P3 ——- 4 943 202 0.385496183
    P3 ——- 5 666 -277 ——- -599 2.065517241
    P3 W4 a 931 265
    P3 W4 b 869 -62 -0.233962264
    P3 W4 c 1037 168 0.633962264 -0.619365609
    P3 W5 100% -290 747
    P3 W5(prob) 161.80% -469.22 567.78
    P3 W5 261.80% -759.22 277.78
    P4 P4 at 1,618 (see bellow) 946 378.22 0.378598599
    P5 P5 at 1,618 (prob, see w5) 459.052 -486.948

    Possible W4 targets Guidelines
    599 24% 809.76
    599 38% 893.62
    599 50% 965.5
    599 61.80% 1036.182

    Possible P4 for w5 567 same ratios for other w5
    999 24% 806.76
    999 38% 946.62
    999 50% 1066.5
    999 61.80% 1184.382

    BUT some questions remain

    IF we must count the 2000 to 2007 action as AB of an expanded ABC (3-3-5) THEN the action likeky ends at W5 (no P3 or P4)

    This last scenario would also be compatible with all this being only leg A of a longer ABC
    IF this is leg A then expect a further surge towards a w recovery and true replay of 1929 further down the road (translation s&p significantly above an ounce of gold for the next decade is a reason to worry)

    Best regards

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    when you read (no P3 or P4) it means (no P4 or P5)

    sorry

  • Iguanadon

    I definitely need more coffee…..

    Good looking stuff SSH… I'll need to digest this.

  • gmak

    Here is something that will give you chills. From “Derivatives Week”, a publication that falls across my desk – every week (go figure!).

    Goldman Sachs has been buying six-month dollar calls against the euro over the last week (dated Aug 17). The trades came to th attention of structurers and traders as they were built in the mornings on a relatively quiet week for the currency pair….
    …The size of the trades were USD300-600 million with strikes ranging from USD1.30 – 1.32 …. Spot at the time of the trades ranges betwen USD1.44 and USD1.42….

    I wouldn't be surprised to find the prop desk was shifting to net short on equities.

  • ckeltner

    Have a good trip Mole and welcome back Fujisan, your posts have been missed.

  • bshah

    with so much confidence… Futures Drift Lower but Lack Real Conviction (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32577846)

  • annamall

    Hi Fuw, You know I love the charts you do for me (wink wink) LOL that is my favorite trade, so I watch your charts like a hawk, I am still short EUR/USD and will stay that way until I see more conviction the upside for the Eur, to me this move this morning is just a dead bounce. (I never use cat bounce (as I am da annamall) πŸ™‚
    thanks fuw

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Take your time (and your coffee) I took a while to stop being stubborn about the 741 low but then the ratios in P3 just all fall perfectly (and we are beyond W4 =62% w5, it only happens <10% of the time, and beside C=0,619% A)

    For W5 I used 1,619% but you can have 1.00 or 2,169

    same logic for P4 and P5

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I have questioned my long term counts many times here and have been struggeling with the 666 being a w3 or w5 completion.

    Here is one GOLDEN rule that I never break when it comes to W4 – if W4 exceeds the 23.6% line its not a W4. I know MANY differ from this as a hard rule and say a W4 can go further. However this is just my own rule for counting correctly.

    So if I take my rule and apply it here it means we ended a short W5 at 666 as the W3 was extended (crash). We could now be in a ABC to make a full W2 of 50+% retrace towards 1200 (from the all time peak) – but then my W3 and W5 would put my numbers into absolute crazy bottom ranges.

    So yes if 666 was W3 which is very possible we are now dealing with a larger W4 correction (not really buying it) that is formed as an ABC or 5 cycle (not wave) formation to start w5 which again could be shortened. Even if that is the case W3 still fits in percentage wise to be correct (forget the exact ratio). Target for this would be 480 at the minimum if we are in W5.

    Again none of my long term counts are too convincing for either side so I am not using them for trades or as guides. It works nice for interpreting a case for some move to come but overall its not a perfect fit.

  • fuw

    Thank you for the kind words. This move has gone on for longer then I expected, and I'm starting to think that it will touch 1.428 before (hopefully) turning, since this has worked as a tipping point as of late. It is also approximately corresponds to the bottom of the shorter term HS formation.

  • gmak

    Hah! You and GS. [grin]

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Thinking of playing the silver Pennant break, what do you guys think?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the ratios are after the deltas, we have been having (probably thanks to Berna and GS) strong w4 retracements (38% see w4 and iv of W3 of P3)

    so now plunge protection has taken P4 to the limit 61%

    will the market buy anything beyond it?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    short the heck out of it

  • annamall

    This morning economic data previous then the forecast on RHS

    8/27/2009 12:30 US Core PCE QoQ 2Q 2.00% 2.00%
    8/27/2009 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 22-Aug 576K 565K
    8/27/2009 12:30 US Continuing Claims 15-Aug 6241K 6230K

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini
  • annamall

    I am Alpha! πŸ™‚

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I'm leaning the other way because I'm thinking the dollar is going to get trashed until QE ends…. but I will play the break.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    does that make me annamall????????

  • wilsrjr

    2Q GDP -1%
    Initial jobless claims 570k

  • amokta

    anyone care to help me analyse 'inar' – sold at 0048, price dropped to 0030-0035 yesterday, want to buy-in again – any advice as to good buy-again price?
    by the way UK bank shares keep rising – is this justified (in that they are genuinely 'recovering'?)

  • innatedc

    Typical reaction to news…..big long candles swinging both ways…..its like treading water by pumping your knees really fast and not going anywhere…

  • annamall

    hahahahah! I guess so!

  • annamall

    πŸ™‚

  • annamall

    You're welcome, i do appreciate the work you do. πŸ™‚

  • annamall

    Looks like we are retesting the upper channel, go ahead bullsitos run till you drop like flies! πŸ˜‰

  • trabuco

    Goldman estimate $ unchanged from here to year end…fair value wirth euro $1.17-1.20…which is also target for 2010-

  • St Deluise

    maybe! but how funny would it be if the market still opens red?

  • gmak

    Funny…. I just saw on Bloomberg:

    “The dollar may weaken through 'established lows' as signs of a global economic recovery drive gains in equities and oil”, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

    This from a GS economist in London.

    “Dollar bulls could well end up disappointed. ven a short-term move beyond our thre- and six-month forecasts of $1.45 per Euro is getting increasingly likely.”

    My opinion is there is too much noise to signal, and it is best to watch their hands not their mouths (GS has been buying USD calls, 6 month term, against Euro).

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    in that case i'm trading topless today!!!!!!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    with all due respect
    why everyone is paying ANY attention to the “opening price”?
    It does not exist, it is a chimera, it is calculated using quant formulas on indexes, it is jumping all over the places depending on quote source, it floats until all secondary markets open (as oppose to third markets during open)…
    high,low and MOST importantly – CLOSE
    OPEN is just NOISE

    Oh…Good morning…

  • annamall

    Speaking of noise!!! LOL

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it is never the news

  • annamall

    well being I have on very short shorts, that would be very nice! πŸ˜‰

  • Iguanadon

    Somebody needs a little decaf this morning. πŸ˜‰

    Good morning David

  • trabuco

    got the info from the horse's mouth yesterday…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    are you been all allusive today? πŸ™‚
    Here is the great quote by John Murphy: “Technical analysis of chart patters are subjective”
    Of course, he is retired now πŸ™‚

  • innatedc

    Fucking bastards, eh? Lie to the public and profit themselves….absolute crooks……

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    nope, just have not been using (or sometimes even looking at the opening price, if not day trading) “open” for years in any of indicators I use – and never regretted it.

    I thought since Mole aint here and Fuji is way too polite – I'll be your cursing host today

  • annamall

    I use tech analysis of most of us do here, but I use one other indicator that is my best one and that is my instinct. πŸ™‚

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Wrong… Sorry Mole and David.

    News effects the dollar, Dollar effects everything else.

    For example GDP painting a -1% today is “good” news which should strengthen the position of the dollar or at least bring it back to where it was before the Euros announced that the end of the world isn't here. The Dollar will strengthen on that news, how the market reacts to bond auctions is another matter altogether…..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    what separates “good trader” from “great trader”?
    TALENT

    Anna – you are one GREAT TRADER

  • Bricks

    So…I guess this is how daytrading goes now.

    Go into the evening in cash. Wait for the morning economic reports and quickly short the spike, cover and buy at the overcharged snap-back a few minutes later, then sell the remainder at the open. Take up another hobby or (actually work) during the day and repeat tomorrow.

  • anotherone

    Don't tease me with what your wearing. πŸ™‚ Good morning.

  • bergs

    Still waiting to see if minute 4 completed and we are in five. If we do move up I would be leary after three waves for possible truncation.
    http://screencast.com/t/TU9oG04J

    Yet, I can't see the bulltards letting this flop before labor day?
    With that in mind I received this from Contra Hour this AM:

    http://www.contrahour.com/
    Martin Armstrong sent him a hand written note.

  • St Deluise

    ha, if you're referring to my post i just view it as symbolism. opening red would just serve as a weird shock to the casual observer.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    sorry Illini –
    I knew that dollar WILL straighten long before Mole, Fuji, GDP and dollar itself knew πŸ™‚
    and that is why I am quietly long since 77.72 – that was when everyone said “news is no good for the dollar” (and a lot “newly converted dollar fans” here were actively shorting for measly and risky profits)

    OK, now I really need coffee (dark and murky) and may be some cognac)

    So, in “my books” – there is no place for news (I am that one handed economist πŸ™‚

  • ckeltner

    Almost right –

    1) Short the close (lows made overnight)
    2) Set order to cover shorts right above support
    3) Buy the suppport
    4) Close longs on morning spike
    5) Short morning spike
    6) Cover on initial drop
    7) Sleep until 2 or 3 PM

    Steps 2&3, 4&5 can be combined into one step (IE cover and go long at the same spot).

    From 2 – 4 PM
    1) Watch spikes
    2) ????
    3) Profit

  • ckeltner

    Don't trade es but this is what I have seen. To bad they don't let us option folks trade overnight!

  • Bricks

    Fantastic!

  • gmak

    Like I implied….

    How do you know they're lying? Their lips are moving. Pay attention to what the prop desks do, not what one among many sales desk jockeys and economists says.

    [grin] Or not. Your money, your call. Cheers!

  • Bricks

    I don't have my charting software on this PC, so sorry for no chart. APA has broken below fib retracement/long term horizontal support with about 5 points to drop. Watching for an entry point today. Trade is a no go if it crosses back above 86.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks berg for the armstrong link. i read everything i can find from him and very much appreciate his work, however i'm perplexed that his dates seem to be in flux. if they are based on cycle theory, thus specific numerical points of reference, then his bottom date of 6/13/2011 should be set in stone, yet subsequent to establishing that date, he seems to continue to wander around.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no, not ref to you post – just not much of a morning person πŸ™‚

  • innatedc

    I have a bullish bias for the morning and then after treasury auctions, we turn bearish this aft……I am hoping for a rip roaring rally this morning to edge us closer to highs before they pull the rug out…..there is month end painting to consider and there are some POMO funds out there to contend with….

  • trabuco

    for sure..I am agreeing with you..and my post was designed to reinforce your call buying position…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that is why I try not to trade options short term, hate to see missed opportunities

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I like all of it, especially “sleep till 3PM” part

  • annamall

    ahhhhh coming from you that is a very nice compliment and my friend you are a great trader too!!! :)))))

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    cubes target 39.7

  • DeadPrez

    Hilarity is ensuing… (market red on open)

  • Trader_Steve

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    agree 100%

  • bergs

    Considering his incarceration I will have to give him the benefit of doubt
    as he does not have access to computer models. God, that he can even think
    in his present environment is commendable.

    Not sure if you are aware of this link:
    http://economicedge.blogspot.com/

    He has three new Armstrong PDF's. I would suggest “will the Dow reach
    30,000 in 2015″
    You will have to scroll down his page quite a bit as these were posted
    yesterday.
    He also has to the best of his ability created a chronological list of
    Martin's publications.

    ————————————————–

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    SPX 1018 is the number I want to see broken.

  • DeadPrez

    I guess even another AIG rally can't lift the S&P…

  • annamall

    Another Doji day!!!!!!!!!!!! ahhhhhhhhhh I can't take it….Please let's rock!

    So far we bounced right off that f—-ing 1022 channel surfing. I guess I might day trade the channel.. :))

  • Joe8888

    update on THE bEARISH PATTERN ,,,ON 10 min SPY ..PLAYING OUT NOW..

    Support at 102.500 on the SPY..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    u might see 1013

  • annamall

    Hi anotherone! LOL it sounds good right? hahahaha

  • annamall

    hahahahah!

  • chumprop

    Anyone else's TOS charts stop working at 9:39am???

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no wonder why I pay for 2 alternate data sources – TOS futures/forex charts DEAD

  • bergs

    Considering his incarceration I will have to give him the benefit of doubt
    as he does not have access to computer models. God, that he can even think
    in his present environment is commendable.

    Not sure if you are aware of this link:
    http://economicedge.blogspot.com/

    He has three new Armstrong PDF's. I would suggest “will the Dow reach
    30,000 in 2015″
    You will have to scroll down his page quite a bit as these were posted
    yesterday.
    He also has to the best of his ability created a chronological list of
    Martin's publications.

    ————————————————–

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks

  • chumprop

    Closed out my trades till the god damned charts get fixed… restarted TOS and they still frozen.

  • newbear

    I can't believe what so many people are being told by so called “investment advisors”, three people in my family have been told this is the best time to buy stock!! I've been talking to my friends and they have been given the same advice. This is absolutely nuts and a sure sign we are very close to a real long term top.

  • chumprop

    yeah, sucks!!! Looks like it's a good thing I got out of my long /ES from 1021.5 for a profit after I noticed the charts crashed.

  • gmak

    I'm just over-tired this AM after several days of being told I was near death (erroneously) by the medical profession.

    So my posts above don't make much sense – except for the GS extract.

  • newbear

    that will make my day!!

  • annamall

    Look @ the $DXY, I watch it like a hawkess. I am very long the USD. Maybe the market will hurt the most possible that being the bullshitos! :)))

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    cvd 1/2 sh nq 1622

  • annamall

    Sign of a top newbear! along with a ton of other indicators. :)))

  • jacksoo

    yeah – i swear TOS has turned to shit since the Ameritrade take over – of all the times to go down fucking unreal

  • annamall

    Heads up, looks to me on the 1 min ES like volume has really picked up. :)))) yea

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    “””RIMM””””””””

  • annamall

    D, you see my reply to you down page from a bit ago?

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Now we're talkin'. PPT where are you?

  • fuw

    Euro/usd breaking down from bear flag. I'm looking for 1.420 as a first stop (HS neckline) and hopefully another break with target 1.400.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    will cover the rest in the next 3 min

  • annamall

    mine working on TOS???

  • annamall

    yes sirree Fuw, now that's what I like!!! yeeeeehhhhh hahahah

  • annamall

    yea it has morning Jack!

  • Bankrupt

    what a beautiful morning we have, rats

    any news coming out @ 10am?

  • TonyMontana

    Anna,

    Are you still looking at 1015 for the SPX?

  • MJSgl

    Either we hold 1018, or we break down below 1000, and quick.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the one where you were buttering me?
    just don't tell T.K. – he'll be talking about his “1 million dollaaas” no more

    CLOSED ALL SHORT FUTURES POSITIONS *********

  • jacksoo

    g'day anna – -fall now will hurt the most i think – bears waiting for higher number to get short, bulls trying to buy the dip only to see the bottom keep falling out – just a theory.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NASDAQ

  • innatedc

    Well my call was way off…….

  • springheel_jack

    Nicely called Anna. Where do you think this will stop?

    We could be looking at a bounce of 1000 – 1005 IMO.

  • Joe8888

    next support area 102.00 on SPY….ALSO .382% Retrace on the 60 min, spy ,,,

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    RIMM is tanking WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

  • MJSgl

    Do or die time.

  • springheel_jack

    90% down day?

  • fuw

    Not liking the TRIN action so far though. We'll see what happens here, and hopefully it starts trending up.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    OK, I am out of overnight short futs, glad I did not close at night – there is an added advantage being in love with good night sleep, most likely fun is over for today – ABC till day and

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    orange it is, fvck yeah, go orange!

  • rhae

    $TICK still horrible, it should turn… but the longer it trends below 0 the better for bears

  • annamall

    Thanks Jack, you were on same page. πŸ™‚ I see first 1015, then 1008, next stop would be 1000, God would that be sweeeet!!!!! All those puts yesterday are just so happy!!!! LOL

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    market has not filled DNR form yet

  • annamall

    I am with Jose' on the same ride! whhheeeeeeeeeee as BH likes to say! LOL

  • annamall

    good for you! hahahah

  • bergs

    Filling the gap for four or is it over and we truncated already. Stay tuned!

    http://screencast.com/t/IgRPkJcvaBOb

  • annamall

    I will do it for it. πŸ™‚

  • annamall

    oh yea all those puts are paying off Jack!!! yeee haa

  • fuw

    I'm in some leveraged ETFs so I'll rather have 2x -32%.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    who is goldman?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEe

  • Trader_Steve

    We are holding right at a channel line, and for those who think we have to do V up, it would be logical to stop here.

    Of course, I had my shortest overnight position on in two months last night as I thought we had a B wave triangle. NG on that move !

    The other option that I stared at for hours last night is that that triangle, despite it's 3 not being above 1, was a ED failure.

    Steve

  • Bear Claw

    What do you have as a price point on that line BH? Thanks

  • Fujisan

    I'm baaaack! I'm making a couple of stops before I head out to Seattle (I'm in Las Vegas right now). It's so nice to be back. Hope everybody is having a blast day!

    If this is a quick abc correction, a=c at 1016.29 (SPX) and today's low so far is 1026.2 and this should hold for today.

    Good luck everybody!

  • Bear Claw

    TRIN seems jacked today?
    Your thoughts?

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    so is the euro short i did this Am at 142.70 resistance area….

  • annamall

    Hey Fuji so good to have you home, how was Japan, any good pics?? have a safe flight, we are smoking good today.

  • annamall

    I'd like to see the $TRIN move up. yesterday it went over 1 (very bearish signal)

  • newbear

    Well that's going to happen for sure, matter of when.

  • AS2009

    Fuji / Anna – where do you see us going from here ?

  • springheel_jack

    I think alpha & Osso are probably right about another spike up though before we start falling in earnest. What do you think?

    Last time I had a good buy entry at 980 I missed it because I was waiting for 970. I'm keen not to do the same this time though it didn't help that I was away from my computer most of the day last time.

    I think we'll settle within an hour where we'll be for most of the rest of the day & I'll use that as my initial entry point for longs. Hold to ES 1035 & short from ES 1040.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    TOS's TRIN reading is wrong at 0.35. It's actually 0.71 as I write this. use the WSJ data page and do the math.
    cheers

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Anna! I”m still having a jet lag and a slight headache from margarita last night…. but I'm all charged up and ready to roll!

  • Fujisan

    We have one more leg up before it finally rolls over, so don't get too much carried away from today's pullback! Like Mole said, sell on the rip, buy on a dip! I won't start shorting the market until Sep 4th.

  • annamall

    Also just went short GBP/USD as well come on dxy! show em what your'e made of…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    I know, the reason why I discarded this as a P2 ABC to 1200 is simple.

    Catastrophe is good, armagedon is not.

    IF this was a P2 ABC to 1215

    THEN P3 (even not extended) would be P3=P1=900 => s&p 315

    P4 again at 50% =+450 => 765

    P5 (with P3 NOT EXTENDED) would give 0,618 X top to P3 (1565-315) = -770 => s&p 0

    OK, SOME retractions COULD get to ,618 to counter BUT

    BEST cASE SCENARIO

    S&P around 110

    and the worse is that it agrees with this chart…

    http://dshort.com/charts/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html?SP-Composite-secular-trends-with-regression

    draw a line throught the 1921 minimum,

    if you are very optimistic P3 is ending,P5 will be mild, it passes through the 1949 and 1982 bottoms, and… voila, s&p 440

    if you are still optimistic the line stretches from the 1877 low and you still have 100-200 points left in the s&p

    IF IT passes Through 1870 AND 1929… double digit s&p here we come

    Best regards

  • innatedc

    Adding to spy calls for ST…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think 1970 should be below that line…

  • annamall

    I think we retrace to at least 1015-16 area, possibly 1008, but I agree with Fujisan we have another wave up. :)))

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Out of my short scalps for the day. I think we're hangin out at this level. May get back in later this afternoon, ust observing now. Happy shorting!

  • Joe8888

    Intraday possible support levels on SPY . 60 min ..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    better be lucky than good
    47 min ago
    “cubes target 39.7
    fst supp 40.1″
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=10392&amp;succ

  • Bankrupt

    welcome back miss fuji

    vegas, eh? yo going to play some cards tonight? πŸ˜‰

  • annamall

    Good to have you home! :)))

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    see you at 980

  • AS2009

    The reason I am asking is because my Sept calls got smoked this morning … so that is good news for me πŸ™‚

  • annamall

    thanks jack, I was wondering about it looking too low. πŸ™‚

  • TheCrowe

    orange is on, no? Referring to the chart above, do others care to comment on support levels that Orange will encounter as we head to the bottom of that ascending wedge (which is at 980ish? doesn't seem possible to get there, but that's just a feeling?) 1013 is the only one that jumps out at me along the way down. Thanks for the insight, Richard

  • Trader_Steve

    It would be nice if we hold here (been bearish for over 150 S&P points) so we can get what looks like need to be done up there accomplished.

    Steve

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    For all the good TOS is, the TRIN is the one weakness that I need them to get correct. hate it that I have to check them all day long.

  • Bankrupt

    I have 39.69 as a low, DT. maybe you get it right next time πŸ˜‰

  • Fujisan

    I'm so cheap when it comes to gambling – I only play roulette with red and black!

  • Bankrupt

    you bought calls?

    you know that's against the rules of this blog, don't you?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    but remember i am 100% short already. there are so many great shorts that appear to have topped there is no reason to wait if you're going to play individual names. which right now is far easier pickings than the indices

  • TheCrowe

    980 makes sense David. It just feels so far away and would require consecutive down days which simply don't happen. BTW, amazing accuracy on your QQQQ call. (hat tip…)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yeah, you are right “almost is not good enough”…never is πŸ™‚

  • fuw

    Very nice behavior in euro/usd, and similar to yesterday. Lets see if it follows through:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/fuw/folders/Def

    These parallel channel lines, tagged to previous highs have been very useful lately.

  • Bankrupt

    well, unlike roulette poker demands skill

  • ropey

    welcome back fujisan, glad to have you onboard again

  • TheCrowe

    high fives twojacks! i'll vouch for your 980 call when the time comes.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    60 min SPX, once once resistance line is broken, the movement to the next is inevitable
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • TheCrowe

    I looked at your charts last night on RIMM. Thanks for those!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    see my chart above, there are much higher support levels than what Mole shows. See the grey lines and the blue line

  • fuw

    Just thinking about 980 makes my mouth water.

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Ropey! Hope your trading is going well!

  • anotherone

    Here's something to make you think about a perspective that's larger than the markets.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/08/in_obama

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    TRIN 0.86 by WSJ data and 0.40 by TOS.

    there was some improvement on the bounce but it is weakening. bears may be leaning in now. we'll see

  • bist

    Sold OSIR $7.5 puts at $1… Insane. Stock is at 14.5. Looks like margin requirement is 1x on this thing too, meaning in a month you could conceivably double your money

  • annamall

    I am watching it like a hawk along with $DXY Jack, thanks for the update.

  • annamall

    makes me drool like a happy baby πŸ™‚

  • thelefteyeguy

    dip buyers need to be burned a bit

    right now they think they are playing with fire with a repellent suit…but little do they realize the suit is made in China.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    come on guys – I am bored to make all money by myself – come on in!
    http://chat.paltalk.com/g2/paltalk/1192843448
    it is non- commercial room – so I hope link will not be yanked πŸ™‚

  • Fujisan

    Where is our lovely Keirsten? Is this taking time off too?

  • rhae

    Guess I gotta be different, a leg up maybe, top in maybe too.
    This is the chart I put up last night… will be watching to see if 1st fib.ext. target .618 tags at 101.80… that is a strong line on the 60m chart…

    SPY daily http://screencast.com/t/GIuILV1m9

  • Iguanadon

    I think she's searching for a new avatar… πŸ™‚

    She was around here late yesterday.

  • rhae

    I had Pal-Talk once, but quit because they spammed the crap out of me, hope it has changed

  • pramood

    Hi Anna,

    Do you believe we go down from here and if yes, what is your EXIT target? Most blogs are calling for a final push up to 1040.

    TIA

  • springheel_jack

    Also in all probability USD has already troughed and oil has already peaked so they are already good bull & bear plays respectively.

  • TheCrowe

    Thanks Alpha!

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, I think so too Anna.

    It looks like we are stabilising here & will probably drift around here for much of the rest of the day. I'm going to try for a long entry at ES 1015 I think.

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, I think so too Anna.

    It looks like we are stabilising here & will probably drift around here for much of the rest of the day. I'm going to try for a long entry at ES 1015 I think.

  • springheel_jack

    Burn the unbeliever!

  • Mercury2009

    Minimum price target on ndx reach to take quick profit at 1615. Closed qid position taken at 1650. Look at that not one indicator used for that trade either. πŸ˜›

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    yeap exactly. We are on the same page =) The only thing as I mentioned is my obessions with the W4 only being valid if below the 23.6%.

    Again its a personal thing for me but I think our counts are right on the money =) I have been calling for 480 since early 2008 and my target back then was end of this year early 2011. Of course this rally will push those targets out by quite a bit but I still think we are on the way there long term.

    I am even crazier in saying that 480 will not be the final low but thats 3+ years away before we can even find a confirmation for such a move.

  • springheel_jack

    Hi alpha,

    I don't think we'll break that line this week though. One more up then down through it.

  • annamall

    I believe she is covering for her partner, (forgive me if I am wrong) I know she has been really busy…
    Shout out to Keirsten, girl if you are there, we miss ya! πŸ™‚

  • deags

    Anotherone…that is spot on…maybe the real reason the aclu wont allow God anywhere so peaple get their bs inpiration from our so called leaders.

  • annamall

    Hi Pra, I am still holding to at least 1015, and am watching for 1008 area before pushing higher, but will evaluate as things progress! πŸ™‚

  • annamall

    yes yes yes, also short GBP/USD

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Went 5% short by buying TZA.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Does AIG ever go down…Stupid thing could go to 90 in a few days lol

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    $VIX is up almost 4%.

    $RUT has a gap to fill at 568.

    I still want to see the SPX below 1018 (on the close).

  • bist

    long bac $18 calls small position. Looks like it's flagging. XLF hasn't really participated in this down move

  • rhae

    I see no problem for bears at this time, Of course that could change in a blink…
    $TICK http://screencast.com/t/aC6oiQDT7

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor
  • fuw

    When it eventually stops (and drops) it will be a decent short. Who dares to go first?

  • bist

    Thanks for reminding me. Long AIG $45 call… already up 10% LOL

  • fuw

    I would feel more comfortable as a bear today if TRIN was looking a bit more bearish as well.

  • Fujisan

    I'm with ya, Jack!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just use bogus email to register

  • ckeltner

    That seemed very high so I did some looking around. Seems there is some study results that are due out soon. I didn't dig too deep so not sure on the date, I am sure you can find it easy enough. Anyways, there is said to be some high short interest on this and the study results will be a big mover (think DNDN style). It will either tank or skyrocket. Right now an ATM straddle is selling for $7, which is nuts considering the stock is currently just under $15. So the option players have a very high IV on this and are expecting a huge move. The only question is which direction. This could be a very dangerous play, so be careful.

  • annamall

    DITTO Fuw!

  • Scrillhog

    Hi Anna… 1015 would be a 38.6% retracement from the recent low of 975… Is that one of your reasons? Ugh, what a day for a bear like me to sleep in. It's tough to get out of vacation mode…

  • annamall

    Good tune SP! God that lead singer is HOT!!!! YUMMY

  • annamall

    $DXY gaining strength, look for a further breakout to the upside, if so the equities will fall further

  • pramood

    Thank you.

  • fuw

    Right now it feels slightly schizophrenic… I want to believe, but a nagging little voice is telling me to watch out.

  • rhae

    better if both tick and trin trending the but I have had more fake outs with the $TRIN, probably the volume element

  • Douala

    I always found DK to be kind of a prophet!
    ~~~~~~~~~
    Kass: Market Has Likely Topped

    http://tinyurl.com/nw6w68

  • Henny

    Newbie question… I was just snooping around and saw extremely high open interest in SPXU – both the Mar10 60 Call and Put… Obviously, the same person holds both positions.

    Is this simply a play on volatility? What would be the expected return on such a position if the Vix doubled? It seems to me that there is limited downside with the Vix at its current levels…

  • bist

    Yeah they're due to report results of their latest stem cell drug prochymal (sp?). I didn't sell a whole lot of it, but I guess the results would have to be really shitty for it to drop below 7.5. And even if it does drop below 7.5, it has to fall to 6.5 by september opex for me to lose money. And in that event I might consider just holding the stock. So I'm willing to take the gamble.

  • MJSgl

    Looks like LOD has been put in. Hope I'm wrong, but looks like bulltards aren't giving up without a fight.

  • ckeltner

    I was in on the DNDN play, sold some naked puts well otm. Had my heart stop when that bear raid hit that dropped it from around $20 down to 7.5 in 3 mins. Rebounded the next day to 20+ after the conference call but that was some wild sh*t.

  • Fujisan

    SPX tested the previous breakout point of 1016, got the price rejection, and going higher.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    REPOST FROM 5 HOURS AGO

    (any comments?)

    If it doesn't matter just say “bugg** off”

    Well, I changed my avatar and was feeling evil.

    Went back to the numbers) and first suffered (oops, my opinion on the november low seemed wrong), then… Could this be it?

    “Bear” with me

    2000 TOP ——- ——- ——- 1557
    P1 ——- ——- ——- 1371 -186
    P2 ——- ——- ——- 1567 196 -1.053763441 (ok verbotten, but in real usd?)
    OCT 2007 TOP ——- ——- 1567
    P3 W1 ——- ——- 1277 -290
    P3 W2 ——- ——- 1440 163 -0.562068966
    P3 W3 1 1133 -307
    P3 ——- 2 1265 132 -0.429967427
    P3 ——- 3 i 1106 -159
    P3 ——- 3 ii 1167 61 -0.383647799
    P3 ——- 3 iii 909 -258 1.622641509
    P3 ——- 3 iv 1006 97 -0.375968992
    P3 ——- 3 v 741 -265 1.666666667 524 -1.706840391
    P3 ——- 4 943 202 0.385496183
    P3 ——- 5 666 -277 ——- -599 2.065517241
    P3 W4 a 931 265
    P3 W4 b 869 -62 -0.233962264
    P3 W4 c 1037 168 0.633962264 -0.619365609
    P3 W5 100% -290 747
    P3 W5(prob) 161.80% -469.22 567.78
    P3 W5 261.80% -759.22 277.78
    P4 P4 at 1,618 (see bellow) 946 378.22 0.378598599
    P5 P5 at 1,618 (prob, see w5) 459.052 -486.948

    Possible W4 targets Guidelines
    599 24% 809.76
    599 38% 893.62
    599 50% 965.5
    599 61.80% 1036.182

    Possible P4 for w5 567 same ratios for other w5
    999 24% 806.76
    999 38% 946.62
    999 50% 1066.5
    999 61.80% 1184.382

    BUT some questions remain

    IF we must count the 2000 to 2007 action as AB of an expanded ABC (3-3-5) THEN the action likeky ends at W5 (no P3 or P4)

    This last scenario would also be compatible with all this being only leg A of a longer ABC
    IF this is leg A then expect a further surge towards a w recovery and true replay of 1929 further down the road (translation s&p significantly above an ounce of gold for the next decade is a reason to worry)

    Best regards

  • bist

    Yeah some friends of mine did the exact same thing. I chickened out and watched that time. Hope I don't get burned this time.

  • Douala

    3rd try at this… [will edit in link]
    ~~~~~~~~
    Kass: Market Has Likely Topped

  • bist

    DUDE AIG $49 almost 50 I owe you big time, looks like a breakaway gap on the daily

  • Teich50

    Yes it looks that way. Opened a bullish QQQQ Oct 34/39 put spread.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    market consolidating in a wave iv, still has wave v down befor any rebound

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • fademe

    Its called seperation of church and state…NOT a bad thing. As for inspiration, you either got it or you don't…no use in looking to anything external, nothing buy a letdown on closer scrutiny…Since this is a trading website instead of a political one, JAZZ is a good buy in the 6.20-6.30 range IMO…if it gets there and holds it could go to 7

  • gmak

    Looking at the basic shape of the market (SPX volumes and trades) on Bloomberg showing MKTP shows a shape that suggests that day traders are not in charge at the moment. Rather, SELLs are being driven by longer horizon (longer than a day) money. This suggests that any ramp up should be faded unless volume comes in behind at the top.
    $0.02

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Looks to me that the bear action has weakened from this morning. If this sustains, we may end up in the green by EOD.

  • TheCrowe

    Agreed. I subscribe to RealMoney. When I'm done reading Doug Kass, I line my virtual bird cage with Cramer's column!

    Kass further wrote on RM this a.m. that counter to Cramer's claims that hedgies are short and covering left/right:

    “Sorry, Jimmy, I disagree with both “Marky” Mark Haines and you as no one I know in my hedge fund cabal has meaningful shorts!”

  • bist

    Despite spy, uso, and others creeping up the adr has been pretty anemic around 0.4 all day hasn't been much participation but it's creeping up too. I'm looking for a sharp upswing

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    futures so bright i gotta wear shades, nice headlines below

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvIAyxpjEuc

    U.S. problem bank list hits 416, insurance fund falls- Reuters
    Goldman Subpoenaed on Huddles- WSJ.com
    GDP declines 1 percent in 2Q, better than expected- AP
    Oil falls to near $71 on recovery worry- AP
    Boeing sets schedule for 787 first flight- AP
    Why the federal deficit will raise taxes- CNNMoney
    Stimulus watch: GOP opposes plan, then seeks money- AP
    Obama's Spending Spree, Budget Numbers “Have All Gone Mad,” Analyst Says- Tech Ticker
    β€œIn the Tank Forever”: U.S. Consumers, Retailers in a “Death Spiral,” Davidowitz Says- Tech Ticker

  • de3600

    test

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    1 min chart on the 1 hour /ES shows a change in direction here. I would like to think its the “buy the dippers” but doesnt bode well for shorts scalps. Ive reversed my scalping position at ES 1018.75. Swinging up as I type this

  • byhiselo

    appears lots of people covered 1016-1018, if we visit that level again chances are we go thru it on the way to 1K imo

  • Douala

    TheCrowe

    What did Kass write about this morning?

  • byhiselo

    bulls so anxious to buy they won't even let the market correct for a day, can't end goodly no?

  • Trader_Steve

    passed

  • bshah

    no…. no.. no.. not again…
    Ramp up… Are they serious…? What just happened…? Why pushing up…

  • malusDiaz

    Sell the RIP.

  • ckeltner

    I'll have to think about it. Might run some strangles on it as it gets closer to the results, I'll research it more tonight.

  • Douala

    alphahorn

    Hon..you know that I am one of your biggest fans of your charts. Any chance you could post the linkable version when you use Stockcharts.com? Would love to see how your patterns play out over time. πŸ™‚

  • Joe8888

    quick look at the SPY 10 min intraday chart….

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    anybody see AIG last night and today…lol

    AIG shares are up another 30% today after current chief Robert Benmosche told Reuters that he recently sought council from former CEO Maurice “Hank” Greenberg.

    “AIG's 275% one-month gain has helped the Property and Casualty Insurance Stocks Index to an average gain of 6% for the period. Today the Index is bucking the trend on a down-day, trading higher fractionally.”

  • shortcover

    just im'd a buddy of mine to dump his AIG…avg exit around 49.17…yesterday we were discussing it after hrs and he said he wanted 50…i thought he was nuts. he still has token position. he has more fortitude than i…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    They seem to be fighting every retracement at 61% (so I projected as such)

    But I still see a first impulse down

    Here's a small roadmap for the hours and days ahead (we should be at w1 3 iv)

    1037.1
    w1 1 1021.6
    w1 2 1032.4
    w1 3 i 1023.9
    w1 3 ii 1029.4
    w1 3 iii (1) 1026
    w1 3 iii (2) 1028.7
    w1 3 iii (3) 1016.2
    w1 3 iii (4) 1023.925
    w1 3 iii (5) 1011.425
    w1 3 iv 1019.3955
    w1 3 v 1003.52835
    w1 4 1021.37103
    w1 5 995.3310297
    w2 1021.144253
    w3 979.0115333
    w4 1005.049554
    w5 963.280584

    CAEVET EMPTOR

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    correction (4) iii 3 w1

  • annamall

    unfortuately the $DXY has rolled over on us bears, I closed out some of my puts before I ate lunch (whew) doesn't look good till the dollar get back it's mojo!

  • PRSGuitars

    Feeling a little sick to my stomach — frustrated and somehow down .5% on the day (overhedged, freaked out, poooooor trading Mr. Zach…)

    Still holding my puts, waiting to re-enter /es hedge i just cut at 1022 (was super-silly and added too early, basically churned out the gains I'd have on my puts…). Embarassing to admit how poorly I played this but I was unprepared and tried to wing the hedging too hard — thus, I deserve what I get!

    Working it back isn't hard, I just need to get more aggressive with my convictions (as well as taking profits LATER rather than EARLIER). Bah. Sorry for the babbling psych assessment — just need to clear my mind on this lunch break for a few…

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    EURUSD just wants to retest the upper range one more time before falling over. I am still holding the EURUSD short and all puts. Was so tempted to close some out though this morning. It was so refreshing seeing such a nice change on my acct balance for once. But what do they say – know when to cut your loosers and let the winners run =) I am hoping this one belongs into the later category.

  • annamall

    Picking up a few more spy put, (small position here)

  • TheCrowe

    He has a handful of quotes in today's columns. The best is this:

    After Cramer says (from one of Cramer's institutional trading friends) that hedge funds are primarily short via index shorts, not single stock shorts, Kass writes:

    “Wrong, wrong, wrong — regarding hedge fund exposure!
    Simply look at the more rigorous surveys at ISI and Goldman Sachs, which underscore the highest net long positions in a long time! “

    To which Cramer gives a mea culpa:
    Doug, great comeback and thank you. I passed it on as more of a demonstration of the hot feelings your call engendered but i have to go with you, now that i have seen this, over my reader even though I know he is reading this right now!

    Cheers,
    Richard

  • annamall

    I am right there with you Chaugner, hope it belongs in later category as well! :))))

  • PRSGuitars

    Impressive. I'm in the same boat but less by choice than by inactivity with the puts — just didn't feel like the 1016 was all we'd get before this drop played itself out, but what do I know.

    Overhedged (as I was saying to anna just below). Cut them now, but silly me for getting delta positive too early and having to drop some for a loss. What are you using to hedge?

  • Trader_Steve

    Every Elliotician has August 19th with a wave 2 from 10 am to 11:30 AM.

    That has borthered me since I saw it because it's a triangle. One can argue it isnt, but it is.

    That leaves a plausible count as not an impulse wave up waiting for its V, but rather a-b-c-x-a-b-c-x (to 1022.48 on August 24th) and an ending triangle.

    No one else is seeing this and it is a very valid count with no violations. If it's right, it's the triangle that everyone dismissed back on the 19th and called it a 2 will be where the counts went wrong.

    Steve

  • byhiselo

    had AIG long from after-hours last night at 39 with a target of 50-51 thinking it may squeeze…sold it at 42 this morning…pffft

    taking profits…i didn't take any profits…did you take profits?…whos taking all these profits…?

  • rhae

    $TICK divergence at high, not really impressive, imo…. maybe just another nutty day… I do not know, it just is what it is at the time…

    http://screencast.com/t/Y3Vo7SpU

  • Fujisan

    Have any of you currency traders looked at GBP/JPY? I shorted it before I took off two weeks ago and I just banked over 1000 pips! (speaking of passive position management).

    Pull up your monthly pivot set up. It would be a great plact to go long at monthly S1 level.

    I personally don't mess with EUR/USD – it's not going anywhere any time soon. GBP/USD would be a better bet.

  • PRSGuitars

    Was just thinking the same thing… might be good for a vwap reversion at least

  • Keirsten

    WELCOME BACK FUJI!

  • AS2009

    Alpha – amazing charts … what tgt are you seeing for wave v down ?

  • byhiselo

    AIG, FRE, FNM, C, BAC…poster children for the debacle…all green…and new recovery highs out of march…perfect bullish extreme and from a contrarian perspective should be sold into…imo

  • PRSGuitars

    Uh…

  • bshah

    I am going to hold all my puts and die… here… I hate this and am jinxing this market… that it will go down to hell…

  • Fujisan

    Hey, Keirsten! Good to see you too!

    Wooooo, you look dangerous! Now you got a gun, you need roses too!

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I know … done the same thing before. Had build a nice short position that I was holding for almost a week through some major pain, market finally makes a move into my direction and those positions were coming to me … hedged way too soon and way too much as I kept on being afraid of being back in the pain zone. Ended up making nothing lol

    My point is that I have held my position through quite a lot of pain. I went short ES @ 1012 4 weeks ago (the only time we had traded ES during cash hours above 1012) and had a NICE position for 3 weeks up at one point over 30 pts. I am still in that SAME position today.

    Plus a LOT of puts with an avg of 1018 SPX. So yeah, thats a lot of pain to take (too much pain as I should have closed out on the cash hours break of 1012 last friday – a big mistake that cause me a lot of heart burn). At least I had a chance to get a better avg on all my puts. Even did a mole special for march puts =)

  • bist

    ymi cit breakouts

  • bist

    I did the same kind of stuff on AIG's last breakout. This time I'm just going to hold my calls. My stop is my purchase price

  • innatedc

    Whoa!! Holy avatar batman!! Good to see you Keirsten. Whatcha playing right now? POT?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and, of couse from w3 onwards I screwed up in excel

    CORRECTED

    1037.1
    w1 1 1021.6 -15.5
    w1 2 1032.4 10.8
    w1 3 i 1023.9 -8.5
    w1 3 ii 1029.4 5.5
    w1 3 iii (1) 1026 -3.4
    w1 3 iii (2) 1028.7 2.7
    w1 3 iii (3) 1016.2 -12.5
    w1 3 iii (4) 1023.925 7.725
    w1 3 iii (5) 1011.425 -12.5
    w1 3 iv 1019.3955 7.9705
    w1 3 v 1003.52835 -15.86715
    w1 4 1021.37103 17.8426797
    w1 5 995.3310297 -26.04
    w2 1021.144253 25.81322365
    w3 953.5620594 -67.58219395
    w4 995.3278553 41.76579586
    w5 953.558885 -41.7689703

  • innatedc

    And welcome back Fuji….hope trip went well….I'm thinking we'll need a comment clean soon.

  • Keirsten

    I am shorting POT, Inna. πŸ˜‰ I've got a lot of shorts on right here, just holding and hedging via scalping. What's on your list currently?

  • Keirsten

    Iggy said it's TV week or something. LOL

    So glad you're back and hope your trip was fun!

  • centerline

    missed the move this morning (pesky full-time job keeps getting in the way of my fun!)

    no worries though. let's take this baby up, up and away so that I can add to my long term puts!

  • fuw

    Yeah, euro/usd back to retesting the 1.428 line. If it breaks above I think that the short term bearishness is in serious trouble.

  • GDII

    check in.
    damn i miss big. i had a super expensive thursday night party πŸ™

  • funkypenguin

    Went long FNM and FRE a while back as lottery plays – loving this action. Look at the volume on these suckers – traders paradise trading these POS.

    This wacky stuff often marks a top.

  • PRSGuitars

    Sorry, didnt realize i just said — 'uh' — though that's about how i feel right now. Confused.

    Need to be a little more nimble with my exits. Or, conversely the market should move in a direction for more than 30 minutes. I'd like to know one thing… who's selling from 930-10? And then who's buying the rest of the time?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    You can step off the ledge rats…it'll be ok. Auction results in 10 minutes, expect tankage shortly thereafter.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • Teich50

    Thursday night? Are you in Asia? It is only Thursday morning (PST) here in the U.S.

  • innatedc

    I am hedging with spy calls right now…so this grind up is helping me….playing small and slowly building long term put positions….patience for me.

  • centerline

    I traded in and out of POT a little while ago when the price dipped below 80. As soon as it popped a little over 90, I took the money and ran like hell into the wind of that India order at rock bottom prices. I stopped following POT at that point (missed out on some nice channel action though). Has there been any word on the Chinese order yet? If I recall, it was that order which was going to reinforce the demand and pricing.

  • Douala

    FIRST COME FIRST SERVE… Be the 1st!
    ~~~~~~~~~
    Years ago Sprint gave me a prepaid phone card. I have about $13 left on it. It expires Aug 31, 2009.
    If anyone wants to use it to make a call here it is…

    To place a call, dial: 1-800-611-2431
    Card number:765-241-2662-034

    Hurry and use it before Mole finds it and tries to call one of those 900#'s sex phone lines!

  • PRSGuitars

    Thanks for telling me that — feel a little better now. That makes sense, and you're right that to play for the big moves you have to be prepared to sit through some pain — but as you said, it sucks to hedge yourself out of profits and laugh silently as you realize you're flat to negative on what should be a killer day.

    I also realize I should probably stick to hedging options with options so i treat them as a pair rather than /es which is my trading vehicle.

    Lesson learned! (i keep saying that so i tell myself i'll recall it next time…)

  • Joe8888

    Hey Fed's buying the 7 year Bond today…….lol

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Cleaning out the purse…must be an exciting day….

  • Keirsten

    In all honesty Center, I haven't been watching the fundies on POT- just trading the chart and tuning out the noise as much as possible. Thanks for the heads up though- I'll search the info about China. πŸ˜‰

  • Douala

    alphahorn

    Thanks for posting the link. I see your annotations didn't make it, so you must not have the full service account. OK..I settle for the picture only. Thanks again.

  • Iguanadon

    Alright Keirsten, you've stumped me… who is she?

  • Douala

    LOL +1

  • fuw

    Thanks for your charts. I really appreciate them.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    what does full service account mean, i think i have the most expensive package they offer

  • AS2009

    Alpha – where do you see wave 5 going ? Is there typically a fib connection b/w wave 1, 3, 5 …

    TIA

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Remainder of the day should be a trend-down IMO…

  • GDII

    yes i am chinese.
    well, i am not in the right color, i don't speak chinese, i don't have chinese greencard.
    even worse, i cannot trade chinese stocks.

  • Keirsten

    HA! It's La Femme Nikita!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    5 is usually a fib relationship to 1, so .618 of 1 or equal….

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    GBP/USD is the one to short on rallies….I agree and have been in that trade for 3 days now….covered many currency shorts today and will wait for another retest higher to get back in short.

  • innatedc

    Gut feeling or is one of your indicators flashing? Thoughts on dollar, treasuries and/or POMO?

  • Iguanadon

    Had to Google it… Glad to see I have a reason for not being familiar… Canadian show. πŸ™‚

  • cramar

    In case nobody noticed, the DOW has turned +ve.

  • annamall

    You know I am a bit surprised at how the market isn't taking to the good outcome of the 7 year auction.. that is strange. I am still short as a ladybug!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Comment cleaner please

  • innatedc

    She's hot, eh?!!

  • fuw

    I suspect that many of you have already spotted this, but on the longer term euro/usd is up against a serious resistance line on the daily:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/fEhIpIFzE9

  • Keirsten

    There ya go! It was between this and Lucy Ricardo, but with the mood I'm in today, this one works best! πŸ˜€

  • Douala

    This is why I preferred a link over the picture. I added your trend lines and saved it so everyone can see how your count plays out in real time.

    http://tinyurl.com/lmzm8g

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Still short RIMM. Very weak on this rally by the general market…

  • bshah

    From who else… “An auction of 7-year government debt appeared to go well, drawing a high yield of 3.092 percent though prices were little changed afterward.”

  • Keirsten

    That's a good sign for us- when the market tanks on good news the game will change. πŸ˜‰

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    if mole were here, then he'd be posting this channel

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Iguanadon

    Just had an epiphany while emailing a buddy of mine about the impending hundreds of banks that will likely disappear over the next couple of years…

    2007/2008 was a house of cards phase
    2009/2010/2011 will be the “fall like dominoes” phase

    The dust has been settling the past 6 months (not really) and now the next problems will start to surface, in particular commercial real estate which will devastate the smaller regional banks. As the regional banks dry up and blow away, small businesses will have even fewer options for getting money to open/operate which will keep unemployment from getting much better, causing forclosures to continue, etc, etc, etc…

    Hey, what can I say, my mind wanders…

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    just wanted to make a comment for all the bears that are sweating because we running up a little bit.

    this is EXACTLY what we have been wainting for. Look at the pickup of intraday ranges in terms of points. Just look at every day this week. Wild swings back and forth. We have gotten so used to the crazy 10:30-2:30 slow ass tape grind days that the good ole says seems like a bad thing. No, we are getting a huge pickup in big moves right at a range that many consider as topping material.

    So if you are short and concerned for not closing out on every small 10 point drop – don't be. When was the last time we had seen such moves in the past few weeks or even months? Bulls are still fighting thinking buying the dip is the way to go. While other bulls are not wanting to take the risk and take profits.

    Big ranges are good for us, especially if that means bulls cannot hold on to gains as easy as before anymore. We will not just drop here, the next week or so we will still be bouncing back and forth between our existing ranges … and then get ready …

  • Douala

    annamall
    From CTA trader’s..

    I have a research universe of 1000 equities from around the world, all trading in the US, denominated in USD. I run the daily BUY and Sell Alerts and Accumulation/Distribution Zone signals. The latest data is or should be a concern to the Bulls.

    Over the past three days trading, which is Monday through Wednesday this week, my system has generated 15 Buy Alerts and 196 Sell Alerts. Seldom do you see ~20% Buys or Sells within three days. Based on this β€œsimple little system”, I think the Intermediate Term trend has reversed from bullish to bearish.

    What that means is that traders need for prices to come to them. They do this by holding back bids, and letting prices fall. If those prices happen to rally, it is almost a certainty that the subsequent sell-off will take prices to a lower low.
    ~~~
    [and then this]
    ~~~
    Once again the peaks of day were brief upside flurries after economic reports were released; good news attracted longer time-frame sellers. Even though S&P futures finished higher, many more contracts traded on the bid versus the offer, indicating sellers were initiating most of the trades, a notable change in behavior over the past few months.

    Intra day rallies have faded out into the close recently, increasing the odds the trend is about to change. Everything seems to be setting up for a decline, and our system is generating lots of Sell Alerts, but until sellers take control, the trend remains up, no matter what we think.

    It does make sense, however, to begin tiptoeing into shorts as they enter the distribution zone, using options to establish positions, a low-risk way to speculate on a downside reversal.

  • GreenBear

    I've noticed you've been having a lot of epiphanies and flashbacks recently.

  • Keirsten

    I agree Iggy. Someone was asking last night what the early signs might be in regard to those two hedge funds going broke last year early on as possible warning signals before the crash in '08. I think Colonial and Guaranty are just the tip of the iceberg.

  • GDII

    damn. i just jing it!
    next time i will not bother cut a chart πŸ™

    i think the last pop is kinda weak. not even able to touch the upchannel.

  • Fujisan

    Comment Cleaner!

  • Iguanadon

    Old age, mid-life crisis, maybe suicidal, who knows. LOL

  • Douala

    chaugner

    Well said my friend!

  • AS2009

    OK- thanks for this … lots to learn in EW – just starting out …:)

  • centerline

    I don't know a whole lot about it myself. But I would say be careful on that one. It swings around pretty wild. If I wasn't so preoccupied right now with the overall market, I would bet that I would in there playing with POT myself (that just sounds wrong, doesn't it?).

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    STOP

    The channel WILL BE broken (upper channel) as higher count waves come into play

    1025 (+-1 point) will pop up 3 times before we end this first wavelet down

    (and then it might once again on W2 but I think not, it should stay bellow 1015)

    best regards

  • annamall

    Yes indeedy! that's what I am talking about hehehe. Watching $DXY very correlated to tape today. πŸ™‚

  • TheCrowe

    ssh,
    Does EWT say anything about timeframes?

    I'm guessing no, since 1037.1 – 1021.6 (8/25am to 8/26 am) took a full day, and 1021.6 to 1032.4 took just an hour or so on 8/26.

    Or is there a rule of thumb on time to complete a 5-wave pattern as described here?

    Thanks for your effort.
    Cheers,
    Richard

  • AS2009

    Doula – for those of us who don't have a stockcharts subscription how can we see the chart … can you make it a public chart ?

    TIA

  • Joe8888

    the Fed bought all of the last 7 year Bond Auction…. so they bought them again…..

  • http://spychart.net spycharter

    I read that the Phase III prochymal trial date started March 27th and lasts for 180 days. Meaning it should end around September 27th +/- 10 days. Just have to figure out if this is after or before opex.

  • Douala

    AS2009
    Yes… can you see the trend lines on this chart?

    http://tinyurl.com/lmzm8g

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    You have some comments on time, but very lax.

    This link is ok

    http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/98

  • LeTrader

    Great job, Fujisan! Congrats!

    One of these days I will need to learn to trade currencies like you guys do.

  • standard_and_poor

    Bad girl, be careful you don't turn into a female version of our lecherous friend. lol
    Β 

    Β 

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    You have some comments on time, but very lax.

    This link is ok

    http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/98

  • LeTrader

    Great job, Fujisan! Congrats!

    One of these days I will need to learn to trade currencies like you guys do.

  • standard_and_poor

    Bad girl, be careful you don't turn into a female version of our lecherous friend. lol
    Β 

    Β 

    ________________________________