Now Reading
Out Of Ammo
69

Out Of Ammo

by The MoleDecember 14, 2016

It’s not for a lack of trying but I’ve got zilch today on the setup front. So we’ll have to make due with nursing some of our ongoing campaigns. The E-Mini didn’t grant us an entry yesterday but some of the subs and yours truly actually grabbed a long position on the Russell futures. 

2016-12-14_tf

Which unfortunately hasn’t gone anywhere up to this point and that’s a problem because of the event risk we’ll be facing later today:

2016-12-14_events

Yes, it’s that time of the month again – the FOMC interest rate decision is upon us, which pretty much hoses our entire session. Which is why I’ve decided to exit the TF long position about 30 minutes ahead of the announcement. If you’re anticipating more downside in the coming ours then feel free to pull it now of course.

2016-12-14_eur_update

EUR Futures – I’m already long here and I would consider a second one IF (and only IF) we’re not seeing too large of a swing here later this afternoon post announcement.

2016-12-14_6a_update

Ozzie Futures are looking good and I’m moving my stop up by about 0.5R to 0.746.

2016-12-14_copper_update

We tried an entry on copper not just once but twice and to no avail. This chart was flowing beautifully for months but has turned into Dr. Seuss’ worst nightmare since the roll-over. I think copper is off my setups list until things start moving more orderly here. Way too many overlapping long wicks and that means it may be heading into an extended sideways churn period.

Let’s Not Push Our LUck

We’ve had a very profitable Christmas season thus far but the take away message today apparently is not to push our luck, especially ahead of the FOMC announcement. I’ll catch you all later this afternoon once all the craziness settles down a little.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • StockTalker
  • Tomcat

    I have a small S $CL here…Doesnt look like support will hold.

  • StockTalker

    Yikes, Fed Day today!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • kudra

    GDX bumped its head again at $21.50.

  • StockTalker

    Blow-off day

  • OJuice

    The way this move has been progressing, that definitely would not be surprising. Quick shake out then vertical lift-off to pure Christmas euphoria…

  • StockTalker

    Bear flag on the 5 min

  • Skidmarkalot

    Got to make sure we close out the year as high as possible, Uncle Sam has got to collect those tax gains and Wall Street Christmas bonuses!!!

  • StockTalker

    We may finally have more sellers than buyers:) .50 basis pt increase.

  • AcoBrasil

    $VIX Dec contract price just dropped below spot. That’s a bit unusual to see one week before expiration.

  • StockTalker

    Crude in the dumper

  • ridingwaves

    I just added…

  • Ronebadger

    1/4 point…non event…but, we knew that already

  • AcoBrasil

    Stopped out of TZA.

  • ridingwaves

    great for bulls….run it up into inauguration now…

  • StockTalker

    Down we go

  • StockTalker

    Does not look good for bulls here. Rug pull

  • kudra

    oh dude. it’s about to hit your $20 target.

  • kudra

    not sure market had factored in 3 rate hikes next year.

  • StockTalker

    Lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    See if 2250 holds

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Mole, why go long Russell? That’s the most cooked index out there. Just curious.

  • AcoBrasil

    Yeah, I left some on the table.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Bleh my GLD/ NUGT getting whalloped. Need to see how this ends up EOD/ tomorrow.

  • kudra

    gold and miners dead since election.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Or this is short term buy the dip moment for you?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I missed that short trade when GLD was at 123. Easy money and I even had it in my short list.

  • AcoBrasil

    Fortunately I exited my silver trade on that Monday surge….

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Smart. I am starting to wonder if metals is kind of my Lucy and I’m Charlie Brown. I totally own volatility shorts but I keep taking stabs at GLD longs/ shorts and my record sucks balls. I keep thinking one day I will get my foot on the ball.

  • Billabong

    Time to sit back (daily) and see what the closing session (3:30 – 4 EST) has in store for direction. Another hour of volatility to go. The move in oil must be a petrodollar move because the $ is strengthening. Bond / Note are pretty flat…

  • AcoBrasil

    LOL. I’ve got a few of those in my pocket too. FSLR, GFA, ITUB… 🙂
    My problem with PMs is the difficulty in assessing value when demand and supply don’t really matter.

    Looks like silver is starting to rebound a bit.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Everyone survived the gyrations?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Apologies for my absence today – wife is sick and I’ve been running around like a chicken.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I had a really big long position in miners and GLD in Nov-Dec 2015. My time stop kicked in and right after they blew up. The other time I was long in Sept right before the bottom fell out.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..of course, and all that goes with.

    https://pp.vk.me/c10599/g36013586/a_79dac020.jpg

  • Billabong

    SI $17 floor is still holding and GC is down 0.22% (chump change) on the daily. I wouldn’t expect much movement until later in January. Oops, I shouldn’t predict … We all know what happens when we predict don’t we Dennis Gartman.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    usually gets smacked on a day like this.

    Didn’t say it however, Schrodinger cat – ya’know.

  • AcoBrasil

    I made a 100% profit on MIC in 2008 when I bought at $1 and sold at $2. It is currently trading at $180. In NVDA in 2015 at $18, out at $28. Trading at $96 today.

  • ZigZag

    Trading from under my desk

  • Billabong

    Depends on the system you have and how you follow the trend. If you had only used fundamentals it could have gone the other way. Timing is also a key component often overlooked. Warren Buffett wouldn’t be where he is today if it wasn’t for the decisions he made between 1981 and 85.

  • AcoBrasil

    Good points Billabong.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Finally we’re getting a decent correction. This should clear out some of the weak hands 🙂

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Stopped out. Again!

  • StockTalker

    Very little support here until 2190-2200

  • Ronebadger

    cut me off a piece of that

  • StockTalker

    Vanilla or chocolate?

  • Mark Shinnick

    I have objectives above 20.2

  • Yoda

    Bulls’ market is over for now… until the next wave of QE.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • Tomcat

    I hear you but as the saying goes: bull market don’t die of old age
    So without a catalyst I don’t see the bull train stopping outside of taking a “breather”

  • Yoda

    I believe the FED was the catalyst today.

  • Tomcat

    My hands are weak, so I am not touching this THING

  • Billabong

    $ ramping up this morning. DX currently +1.34, USD/JPY +1.45, Euro now in 1.04 territory. Looks like money pouring into $ strength. This won’t help the US trade deficit…

  • StockTalker

    Dollar blow off today, should about do it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    blow off? or break out?

    ..guess it depends on your timeframe.
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/keep_calm/#comment-3003100672

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • AcoBrasil

    PMs getting crushed. Oil up slightly and European markets and Japan up. Odd reaction.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn, silver really crashed & burned. Glad we moved out stop > break/even the other day.

  • StockTalker

    50 crude, lol

  • StockTalker

    Getting long

  • Tomcat

    Be careful, PMs dont like rising int rates. I can see Gold going down to 700-800

  • StockTalker

    Though it was the dollar that did not like rising rates.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Dollar loves rising rates!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III