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Painting The Picture
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Painting The Picture

by The MoleApril 26, 2012

I have movers all over the house as we speak and they are about to carry out the desk I’m working on right now. So forgive me if I’m not as elaborate as usual. I was about to simply run you guys through a few juicy commodity setups, all of which by the way seem to have come into sync, thus greatly improving our odds. But there is one chart I ran into this morning which paints a unique picture of what has been going on in the past few months. As I won’t be able to post this weekend I decided to be a kind Mole for a change and just throw it to the leeches:

I think some of you may remember this one – it’s a ratio of all NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day SMA vs. all trading above their 200-day SMA. In essence this measures the quality of an advance and on the inverse if there are signs of recovery on the way down. As you can see we experienced various bearish divergences ahead of meaningful market corrections. You usually see the ratio flatten near market tops and then follow the tape down as part of a sell off. It’s not too unusual to see a bullish divergence on the bottom as well, which is usually an early harbinger of a looming reversal.

Clearly we’ve been plotting a bullish divergence for the past month now and it’s now painting a pretty pronounced pattern. But this is not what I want to talk about. What really captivated me about this chart are two things: One is the magnitude of the bearish divergence we got before we actually corrected downward by – what – a measly 60 SPX handles? Two there is now a technically valid (i.e. 3 touches) diagonal long term support line and this tells us another story. The market was as vulnerable as they come in the past few months with only APPL and a few other prime symbols carrying the cash indexes. And as we are now bouncing back the bears have (yet again) lost a crucial battle and I fear there will be a price to be paid. Well, I’m not really worried about it either way as I don’t take sides. When it comes to playing the tape I’m a promiscuous little Vegas whore playing tricks on whoever is silly enough to take the other side of my trades.

And as it happens this long term chart seems to sync very well with our more short term trading perspectives. Let’s take a quick look – I would love to invite you to my evil lair but it is no more. In the coming weeks I will be reporting from yet undisclosed locations in Spain:

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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The spoos managed to finally push above the 25-day SMA. You don’t have to be an experienced charting pro to realize that this is a big deal and may lead to a bounce higher. However I don’t expect this to be a cake walk – let me show you why:

We’ve got another small volume hole at 1390 – not something to be really worried about if you have mojo to move the market. Rather an opportunity to shake out a few weak hands joining the fray on the way up.

Crude is on its way! Another breach which has me all giddy. I do of course always expect a little retest and if you missed it you may get your second chance.

Copper also on the run. Obviously this was a tough trade to catch and you can also look out for a retest here.

Cocoa may just finally decide to pick a direction. Frankly I’m not really hot about this trade but my emotions are usually wrong and thus I’ll take it with a tight stop.

Cotton – not exactly a setup right this minute but I wanted to put it on your map. 92.3 is where that diagonal continues to build a wall. Either way a great setup whenever we get close so set your clocks.

Similar story on gold – I’m not in this right now but want to be as soon as we get near that 100-day SMA again.

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Before I go let me congratulate everyone who took that Nat Gas entry yesterday:

Of course I do hope you got out as we approached that upper 25-day BB. Not a good idea to get greedy after a candle like that.

This will be my last post for this week as I’m moving my entire operation overseas. But no worries – Volar is on the case and promised to put up something on SKEW and volatility over the weekend. My next post will be either Monday or Tuesday, henceforth reporting from beautiful (but currently rainy) Spain.

Hasta pronto!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Have a safe trip MOLE! 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/fa96f025-e176-4114-a49d-b0cd6eaf56c5/2012-04-26_1400.png
    OK quickly! Before you place your shorts here..maybe just wait! for 1410 or below. Because right here could be a bit premature.

  • Anonymous

    SPX 1400 here we come?

  • Anonymous
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Muchas gracias hermano 🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    1399.50 HOD so far.

  • Anonymous

    Bon voyage Mole! 

    Just got out of my long ES contract to send you off…LOL

  • Anonymous

    Low hanging fruit in the Garden of Eden, there for taking?
    Approx 2 hrs trading left, still time for a dip, and then fly-past

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Hmmm, what of the Mole curse?
    will the Market flash crash?…..or go silent without Volatility?  unprecedented territory me hardies.

  • Anonymous

    Regarding the current situation of the bears:
    http://youtu.be/dQi5J1ZGLqM?t=5m52s

  • Schwerepunkt

    The moment of truth, right here, right now.

  • Schwerepunkt

    SPX1400? Resistance or becomes support?

  • Anonymous

    Stop trigger territory past round number res spx 1400?

  • Schwerepunkt

    If an hourly close above 1400, shorts will SCRAMBLE.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Alert, price is making a run for it.
    ..and this is why DG tracks T’s.
    if you get it right, you get movement!   (fan lines don’t hurt either)

    http://postimage.org/image/ho900pt1l/
    -DG

  • Schwerepunkt

    big drop in TICK. Like a cliff.

  • Anonymous

    Ok! I plan to close my beleagured long today (but no doubt mkt will gap up tomorrow!)

  • Schwerepunkt

    beleaguered? where did you enter?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    the curse of MOle strikes.  it’s knows

  • Anonymous

    Is that a neutral sign (did we get extreme in tick, to signal todays-top)

  • Schwerepunkt

    on my screen it was only a marginal extreme, still no spike above 1K. Watch for short covering on an hourly close above SPX1400.

  • Anonymous

    Held some long before market whipsaw, added to at bottoms, overall UPRO entry price 81.5, so closing today should net reasonable return, but wish could have entered at $76.50!!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I C. Well . . . nobody ever went broke making a profit. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hits your target today, tonight or tomorrow? The 3 Ts.

  • Schwerepunkt

    You could always set a stop somewhere in profit land and let it ride. Of course, overnight gaps can eff with that strategy.

  • Anonymous

     Im a bit wary of market revisiting whipsaw-land again! Might start with clean slate tomorrow, can always ‘buy the dip’ 🙂

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    3am tonight (on the small T) and noon tomorrow, BUT (and this is a biggie)
    the big inverted T is two months wide, I could be off by 7 hours.
    so targets and discipline still rule.

  • Anonymous

    seems the Russ, spx, nsdq, nyse are all forming right shoulder on daily chart…

  • Anonymous

    And Dollar has not broken down! 10 ES handle ramp and still sideways!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Pulling an all-nighter? 

  • Anonymous

    Good luck with the move Mole. We’ll all be there for the house–er, Lair-warming party!

  • Anonymous

    the facebook delay makes me weary about holding any long position up here with May so close..greek elections, spain, hedgie hampton vacations and quest for more sugar via ben from mm’s…

  • Anonymous

    AUD/USD creeping to 1.04…Cable marching right back to 1.62 – what a freak!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes, it’s a creep show.

  • Anonymous

    Who’s ringing that bell? Is it a top?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIW35eZps4I

  • Anonymous

    ZFX down?  Time is updating, but not price.

  • Anonymous

    Backed the truck here on the retrace. See what happens!

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Mole, wish you a safe trip back home 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Only been in Spain once in my life – whether it’s home – we will see…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ZeroFX – I’m on it. Sorry I was packing. That fucking data center seems to be losing some ports intermittently – they are looking into it.

  • Anonymous

    are fucking data centers where they track my porn usage?

    safe travels…

    Shorting Spg before earnings tomorrow…real tight GS stop…

  • Fibz

    I was just noticing the bearish CCI divergence on SPG (daily).

  • Anonymous

    …just trying to bend the curse…

  • Anonymous

    The battle for 1400spx – i think the bulls have won for today

  • Anonymous

     why Spain?

  • Anonymous

    Mole, safe travels – long flight i believe from west coast!

  • Anonymous

    @AMCabrera:disqus  – I think I might have found the anti-GBP/USD – USD/CAD

  • Anonymous

    Bulls heard Mole was flying out again and needed to ramp it before the next Mole travel/market descend event.

  • Anonymous

     For her Majesty!! Yea most certainly has been.

  • Anonymous

    Looks entirely possible – trade every day, like its your last 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    12 hours – yes – I’ll pop a Xanax and hope to sleep through it. I rarely take sleeping pills – only on 8 hour + flights.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I now have them monitor the right ports (i.e. NinjaTrader). This should allow them to put up some network tracker to see what’s happening. As I said – the first week or two may be bumpy. Sorry I wasn’t able to relaunch it quickly enough – I was in the middle of packing and things are chaos around me.

  • Anonymous

    Sleep soundly 🙂

  • Fibz

    Big CCI divergence on oil:

  • Anonymous

    haha about to go medieval on your ass. Great movie..one of my favorites

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    nah.  schroedingers cat.  if you watch it, then it won’t happen!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    1) closer to Germany
    2) better beer/food
    3) better looking women
    4) currency hedging!
    5) better fit with lifestyle/timezone
    6) and most importantly……Mrs. Mole wants it.

  • Joe_Jones

    better beer??? Careful you might get excommunicated for that. 

  • Anonymous

    Stop set just above 1400, good physiological level. Stopped out of AUDJPY after adjusting my stop this morning. Re-shorted @ 84.19:)
    If the bulls get over that hurdle will be in the re-test the highs camp.

  • Schwerepunkt

    WTH happened at 5pm? 

  • Kudos

    Spain got downgraded by S&P from A to BBB+ Whenever in doubt, try forexlive.com

  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks. 

  • Anonymous

    Pulling newest short.

  • Joe_Jones

    resistance reached. What next?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    amc did’nt you call 1360 bottom?  if so that means you had both 1340 and 1360 bottoms. 

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    wild, treasuries and equities both up today, hummmmmm

  • Anonymous

    Another excuse to shake off some shorts.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Uh, someone muscling into the Gerb’s turf.

  • Anonymous

     Good point, the long/short ratios are about the same but on opposite sides…  The USD/CAD shorts actually increased more than longs today, which is funny because it bounced significantly.

  • Anonymous

    yes sir. only looking at obvious. everyone is capable of it. BUT lucky for us most are not.

  • Anonymous

    Anyone else notice on Mole’s 50 day Nyse ratio chart that the red line is about to become resistance in the next few days?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no I’m fine with it.
    noise will be seen at the .2 box level.
    dam interesting.  haven’t seen noise like this since last April on the downside.
    Hmm.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/2a449eed-a2de-48da-9d84-747319119dc5/2012-04-26_1920.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e51eb917-ee50-4b1b-a2dc-d6a6e3bc5166/2012-04-26_1921.png
    OK. It seems that the quick test shows that we are still in no mans land. I changed that dashed line into a solid line for the futures chart.  I do not see it has being porous anymore. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Mole shares with the leeches, so I’ll share with the rats.
    This is my confidence indicator.
    Equities have been in favor Q1.
    it’s looking iffy this week.  if price breaks below the median.  it’s “treasuries rule” time again.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX:VUSTX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13260539356 
    you mileage may vary.
    -DG

  • Fibz

    I’m in awe of the lunacy in general. Looking forward to the day when the Stupidity&Puerility index is at a depressed level.

  • Anonymous

    Going to bed early and waking up very early.  tomorrow should see some nice volatility. 

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Joe_Jones

    T.Y.

  • Joe_Jones

    lol audjpy

  • Anonymous

    I thought I was ready to play that both ways and still came out grasping air…haha…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    that’s how you clean an order book. Skynet at its best

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO! Dinner is served.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Mole, to remember the old times and get with the new ones
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDgb5vVHuA 

  • Anonymous

    use a limit buy order 50 pips or more below like we discussed earlier. I would not have shorted.

  • Anonymous

    Using stops is useful for losing your money in big forex news. If in profit just close before esp if overbought on hourly. In this case just like the PPI/CPI news a limit buy order would have worked fine for you. Try it next time. I am not shorting yet.

  • Joe_Jones

    looks like the 1st move was the good one

  • Fibz

    lol… nikkei already past day’s low after BOJ easing.

  • Anonymous

     Big cable stop run there…

  • Anonymous

    1.0430 short. well actually 1.0429ish. yesterdays last move offered me more room to be liberal still running old shorts

  • Anonymous

    7) it lies mainly in the plane

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/2f3644d7-12c9-4b2a-841f-b70b50b364df/2012-04-27_0746.png
    As I said it was not going to be porous. Depending after todays action I may just stop trading for two weeks.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/aac9fd82-b3c9-4dd6-96d8-69d203787644/2012-04-27_0756.png
    This is criminal..Running every single stop whether stop-loss or limit-buy right before GDP.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Morning all. What shall it be today? Gap and camp, gap and crap, or gap and gap? We’ll know during soon enough with GDP projection coming up.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/2ebad295-aa3c-46ed-8629-f7c9f1ef37c4/2012-04-27_0804.png
    Just like yesterday. Yea I went short right before close because it looked set-up at 1.03999. Behold it was AND I immediately took profit. Now look at this hitting my sell order at 1.0430. Pssh. Whatever profits I make off the short at 1.0430 Im just going to just go ahead and close the other too below. I already see this only going back to 1.0350 and meaning the two before will still be negative meaning I should not have even wasted my time trading this week because Ill be right back about b/e OR if I would not have been a big dumbass I could have just waited AGAIN at 1.0430.

  • Schwerepunkt

    With the BOJ essentially asking to be the funding currency for the global carry trade, shouldn’t we be positioning to buy AUD.JPY, or even USD.JPY?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ..must …hit…fib …fan. all costs. (gasp)
    (13,225 MiniDow)

  • Schwerepunkt

    U sure your name’s not James T. Gerb?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Punky GDP numbers. Bad. That leaves room for Benny to bend his dick all he wants. Good?

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    clever.

  • Anonymous

    After yest. close the $NYA50:$NYA200 is at 75, right on that trendline now.  Don’t know of significance but interesting. 

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/eef5ea32-fbb8-4871-9739-2c4ca0e27553/2012-04-27_0849.png
    a little penn and teller for you. All the same lines meaning this could easily find itself at 1.0460 

  • Anonymous

    We could buy…but to me we seem more to be in no-man’s land for the Aussies. Neither overbought or oversold atm…

  • Anonymous

    OMg AUD/JPY now that is criminal! I just looked at it.

  • Anonymous

    I’m out of all Aussie currencies…over the past week, 1% equity drawdown due to AUD/USD and 0.2% equity increase due to AUD/JPY – net loss (no didn’t hold both at the same time)

    After my chat with CS, I will pull away from taking positions from my own “analysis”

  • Schwerepunkt

    I’m thinking more strategically here. BOJ wants a weak JPY, we should probably assist them. 😉 Could be aussie is not the way to go, though, depending on China.

  • Anonymous

    Yea it was not even worth trading this week. Complete waste of time. I’ve started shaving off the two earlier shorts I took this week. Unfortunately I was right about the inevitably of AUD/USD reaching these levels.

  • Anonymous

    That second part of your statement was what I was thinking…

  • Anonymous

    I didn’t think to go long even though I knew these levels were possibilities and in that case newbfxtrader was right…everyone and their grandmother was bearish equities and these pairs…

  • Kudos

    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/04/27/i-gotcha-weak-gdp-right-here/ I see this mediocre growth and pledge for low rates as good for high yield, banks, reits, and similar assets. Its good enough to not panic while keeping the less intense morphine drip going.

  • Anonymous

    Oh Cable you make me laugh…this is NOT gonna end well…but who the hell knows when its gonna end…

    Another knockout at b/e…sooner or later commissions are gonna catch up at this daily dance!

  • Anonymous

    Yea that is why I only tried once at 1.6200 next sell order is at 1.6300. I WILL be waiting for that one. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    How do you find these things? Is graphics content part of your “work?”

  • Anonymous

    I dont know if everyone was bearish or not. What I do know is we are back to April 1 levels. Nothing has changed.

  • Kudos

    Maybe CAD/JPY is the currency to buy? They are suggesting rates could rise

  • Anonymous

    OH and DG was right I did get silly this week. First mistake letting this get into .0300. I should have stopped it out immediately and since I really did not like the .0300 region. I needed to have just waited at 1.0430. End of story. I’m fine now. Shaking it off.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

    deeply underwater on TZA (3x short IWM).  Bought Monday, added Tues and Weds.  cost ave. 19.07.  Pure stupidity.  ?:  any sense in holding until next week and try and get better exit? Or take $40K+ hit today.  Thanks in advance.  this place is great. 

  • Anonymous

    Happens even to the best…and yes you are among that echelon here.

    It’s always amazing what you see post trade that you didn’t see at the time. Hindsight yes..but CS is right, look back, dissect, take note.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Quite possibly. Only problem is huge debt levels in Canada. Worse than US at the individual level, mostly as a result of real estate boom. When will that bubble pop? Maybe when they raise rates? Double-edged sword. 

  • Anonymous

    Ehhhh are you a Zero subscriber? We had 2 up trend days and those alerts would’ve told you NOT to add on Wedsnesday and that Thursday was only going to bring more pain.

    I don’t think anyone has a crystal ball to tell you the direction, but 40K seems like a lot unless your account is north of $1MM so you might want to ask yourself what were you willing to risk at the onset of the trade.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good morning! 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Morning! I trust all the packing meant you slept well?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Buenos dias.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

     Thanks.  down 7% on trade.   i added on thursday too.  time to become a zero subscriber. 

    I was willing to risk far less, but not willing to take pain when that moment came tues. night.  dug heels in firmer and now facing the music.  mutual fund monday scares me.  but look at this past monday.  I guess the whole game has changed (or reverted back to what it was after a brief detour) w/ Ben reminding the mrkt. that his put is firmly in place.  but how strong is QE3?  And how long can the promise of it buoy the mrkts?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ouch! Stop trading for a while and come here to get your much needed mental reset. Or just meet us all in a bar in Vegas and we clean you out the old fasioned way. At least this way you have some fun! 😉

    Seriously mate – you are Goldman’s moist fantasy – stop what you are doing and go into cash the minute you are done reading this sentence.

  • Anonymous

    “…
    I was willing to risk far less”

    That’s your answer. You moved your stop. You added to a losing position. Two very bad mistakes (something I know far too well)

    Markets can stay irrational far longer than you or I can stay liquid.

    Get out. If the market rallies…breathe a sigh of relief. If the market tanks, kick yourself not for ‘missing out’ on it but for having stayed in so long to begin with.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bad Cabrera – bad bad bad!

  • Anonymous

    Vegas too expensive…we should do Bangkok….just not too much blow this time…or else it might be Bang-Cock instead

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What is this – ZeroEdge?? Why do you care?

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

    Thanks for the firm words.  I really respect this site and what you do.  You also have a way with words.  Never signed on for subscription b/c i thought it was above my head and more than what I needed as an ETF trader.  I don’t do futures, options, commodities, or currencies. 

  • Anonymous

    Given where you are, set a stop somewhere below todays low on tza, just in case today is the day markets fall (i.e. seeing as your underwater already, give it one more shot, with stop)

  • Anonymous

    For just $29 bucks a month, you get to read and slowly realise what Mole is looking for in setups which can be applied elsewhere. I too have screwed up more than I have gained since starting my subscription – why? Because I tried to run before I could walk. For the first few months, just read, learn…don’t trade. You’ll be better for it – yours truly here should’ve done that.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

    sorry to wrap folks up in my tale of woe (i’ve had many before), but IWM just hit some serious selling; cut through 81.50 like butter.  This is where they keep me in the short trade with the promise of red.  looks like i’m holding til Monday.  I know, the prudent trader sells now. 

  • Anonymous

    Hey emidub

    First off you’ve made a couple of very serious mistakes in trading.  Biggest mistake is to average down your losers.  That is buying more of a losing position at lower prices in order to lower your overall cost per share or per option.  When it works it is a load of fun but when it doesn’t you are royally screwed and odds are it will not work more than it does.

    Which leads to that Classic Statement of how to trade markets.  Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.  So conventional wisdom is close your losing as soon as possible and consider the 40k as tuition for an extremely valuble lesson . . . but you have to learn this lesson or the money is truly wasted.

  • Anonymous

    Why do I care? Because I messed up  not waiting for 1.0430 and letting bad trade turn worse.  Maybe “the nothing has changed” sounds like a overly bearish basis. I just hate I didnt play the range for the month. That is what I mean by nothing has changed.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    No.  but it does add color to the conversations.

  • Anonymous

     I did really reduce the pain with that quick 40 pip profit from yesterday. I was not going to let that be a b/e victim. 😉

  • Anonymous

    Im short from top-of-the-world, but now stop just better than b/e.
    Maybe i get whipsawed out, but if this market can’t drop like a stone, then it might start flying like a bald eagle.

  • Schwerepunkt

    That’s your decision. If market internals don’t shift in next 15-min, you might get lucky and make back some of your losses. $TICK has been mostly negative so far, a possible sign of a trend down day, but it remains to be seen. I think you should also take advice here to heart. Once you are out of the market, sit back and reassess everything. Watch and learn from this site. And ABSOLUTELY stop trading those stupid leveraged ETFs. 

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

     I’ve been at this several years and know that adding to a losing position and moving stop down is poor technique.  But I’ve exited trades so many times at losses, only to watch them turn into winners.  This week I decided to grow some balls.  I’m seeing red.  9:55 AM IWM attempt to reclaim 81.50 failed.  81.25 didn’t hold either. 

  • Anonymous

    SPXU and UPRO data on google finance seems to be stuck – this often happens if markets are about to crash (maybe stop joe public getting ahead) – lets see

  • Anonymous

    stopped out of spg short…gs baby is tough sledder…hence the tight stop..

  • Anonymous

    Yes. USD/jpy for sure. With aussie as long as risk is on its fine. When you have risk off you gotta get out fast. Remember usd/jpy broke out of a 5+yr downtrend.

  • Anonymous

    61.8% Fib retrace from ES April hi/lo is 1394, where we been bouncing for past 1/2 hr.  If bulls can’t hold then 1388 hi volume area from yesterday then yest. lows of 1383.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    looking at the /YM, the 9am could be the beginning of an inverted post.
    the 10:00am sell, and 10:15am buyback could be the center-of-post, with another high next hour.
    hard to tell, my candles are swinging!

  • Anonymous
  • Kudos

    Anyone have an idea why Portuguese bonds yields would be falling 200 basis points in about a week?

  • Anonymous

    You should really subscribe. The 3x ETFs on trend days can pay you back in one day. Although I recommend you trade forex rather than 3x ETFs. Its safer really!

  • simon n

    highly doubt that 🙂

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/8177d457-5adc-45e1-b9c7-8fea9ae492b0/2012-04-27_1123.png
    either it is our favorite to be continued Fridays or we finally see some direction.

  • Joe_Jones

    I prefer to use the fib 78.6%

  • Joe_Jones

    Bots at GS should be like “come on you pigs, BTFD”

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    another binary decision coming.  will ecb issue bonds or not?  Will 1400 breakout confirmation or not?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    checkout copper may last year and april this year….

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=d1

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole, if you can, please fix the zero/zerofx.

  • Anonymous

     I will short XRT if S&P reaches 1410 or falls back to 1390. Im kind of tired of FX for the moment. I still have those AUD/USD shorts however one of the two half lots at 1.0290 has been taken off.

  • Anonymous

    AND other half lot gone 1.0450 reached. all I have left is the one at 1.0429.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/4a5f986f-f1ab-453d-8142-a67685c8b41c/2012-04-27_1226.png
    and looks like dipping into the possible buy orders. But for sure most of the Stop-loss orders have been hit. Considering the ratio for longs/shorts is 50/50 that the rest of the red is take profit sell orders.

  • Joe_Jones

    Jeeez, the tape today is sooooo boring. Anybody have a joke to share?

  • Anonymous

    YUP! fresh longs in AUD/USD! 

  • Joe_Jones

    Yeah, it’s back. Thks, Mole.

  • Joe_Jones

    mmmm, isn’t that pair a bit overbought right now?

  • Anonymous

    Im not long! I was talking about order book. There are fresh longs.

  • Joe_Jones

    A.K.A fresh suckling piglets

  • Anonymous

    good grief. days like this. 1.0480 must be too juicy for them. 

  • Anonymous
  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

    sold 24K shares of TZA at 17.80 for around 40K loss. still holding 14K shares.  now have stops in.  max loss will be 47K.  could have gotten out today on the downdraft for somewhere in the neighborhood of 23-24K loss.   you were right.  this wrecks my year.  was already in the hole 20K.  need to get a subscription and a brokerage  platform that can handle wash sales accting; i.e., one able to generate separate wash sale report for tax filings.  any ideas?

  • Fibz

    If I were trading with that size, I’d be trading futures… just saying.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

     my size is getting whittled away by these bonehead trades against the trend.  How does one trade futures?  What platform is best?

  • Anonymous

    Looks like we’re getting roughly a twin week on AUD/JPY.

  • Anonymous

    Futures have even more leverage. Think twice about it, and always trade smaller than you think your account can handle until you start being profitable consistently.

    That said, Interactive Brokers, ThinkorSwim or Tradestation are popular platforms.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Fibz

    Why are you risking over $500,000 on a trade when you’re clearly a novice? 🙂

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    come on /YM – come to papa.

  • Anonymous

    any minute now Im about to have worst trading week this month. I just know something is going to kick it off.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

     legit question with no good answer.  I guess I am a fool.  Tues AH was the exit and I missed it. 

  • Anonymous

    Cause the T says so!

  • Anonymous

    I know the feeling. Been there. Done that and still have a lot of work of my own to do.

  • Joe_Jones

    🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    did you short or are you waiting for the upper target?

  • Anonymous

    Teacher tells 3rd grade class for tomorrow find out what dad does for a living and spell it and give an example.Next day Tommy says ‘my dads a fireman, f-i-r-e-m-a-n, if he was here he’d put out a fire’.
    Kate raises her hand.  ‘My dad’s a baker, b-a-k-e-r, if he was here he’d bake a cake’.
    Little polish Jackov is waving his hand crazy. Says ‘my dads an electrician, l-e-c-k-t-r-i-s’…teacher
    interrupts and says ‘go home and study and try again tomorrow.’
    Italian Tony goes next. Says, my dads a bookie, b-o-o-k-i-e, if he was here he’d give you 10 to 1 odds that the polack still can’t spell electrician by tomorrow.
    Note: insert your choice of race/creed/color…I’m half polish so no offense to Poles out there. My other half is Irish and I save that for the alcohol related jokes.

  • Kudos

    AM, when something goes rangebound for that long its best to ignore it for a while. Also it had a higher low on the most recent bottom. Best not overthink. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    waitting for upper target.
    frustrating.
    stop in place.

  • Joe_Jones

    FYI FIB .786 retracement of the SPX (1422.38-1357.38) is SPX 1408.47

  • Anonymous

    My biggest mistake was not canceling the earliest shorts this week. I was triggered it never reached 1.0230 which was my target. I needed to just have set at b/e and just waited again up here 1.400 region. I loathed the 1.0300 region. However, this is a good thing it has wiped me back into discipline. I was getting lazy and way too over confident for my own good.

  • Anonymous

    GOODBYE FROM AMERICA MOLE! We will miss you. 20 years that’s a long time man. I wonder how much your time in our country changed you? Did you see yourself as a European immigrant or a German immigrant when you first came here? Will you relate to the Spanish with an American or European outlook?

    What are you going to miss most? Football (not the wimpy euro kind), our fixation with guns (don’t think you will be able to play with your Glock in Spain), girls with big silicone enhanced boobies, our un self reflecting arrogance? It’s easy not to see when you poke out your eye with those big foam fingers that say we’re #1.

    The phrase “bent on market domination” sounds like it would come from the mouth of “original” German Mole, or the “new” American Mole, to find an attitude like that in Spain (who was Franco anyway) you would have to go back to the 16 century. Try not to freak out the Spanish too much. Then you gotta be you.

    In honor of your departure I won’t make fun of you for missing Rammstein (got my tickets) and will only wish you god speed. May you new burrow be deep. 

  • Anonymous

    Sheesh – does this thing want to go up even more? Looks like a bull flag forming on the 5-min ES

  • Anonymous

    Had a +1388 TICK at 1:34 volume spike, pretty extreme.  Then 1255 2 mins later.  Hit higher high on lower TICK a few mins later, Possible exhaustion.

  • Joe_Jones

    I like the sound of that. I will back up the truck on the retest of the high.

  • Schwerepunkt

    no retest; just sliding slowly.

  • Anonymous

    effin bitch…was waiting on a quick pop retest on lower TICK.

  • Schwerepunkt

    waiting, waiting, waiting . . . 

  • Schwerepunkt

    it is annoying . . . and Friday.

  • Anonymous

    What ever you do don’t try to make up the loss in one “swing for the fences” trade. Avoid that temptation.

    Also, not an expert on the subject, I don’t think you have to worry about wash sale rule unless it is over the new year. e.g. you sell for a loss 30 days (or less) before new year, and rebuy the same next year with in 30 days of your first sell. In that case you will not get a capital loss in the first year. Depending on your situation that may or may not be important. I do know somebody who was really screwed by the wash sale rule… he was up nice on the year, sold at a big loss in December (on that trade -still way up on year) and thought that loss would be subtracted from his gains. Then he bought the same thing with in 30 days and thus the loss was not subtracted from his gains (in that year) and the tax bill was much higher then expected.

  • Anonymous

    Mkt trade update: due to internet outage at work, missed the market low today, and then got stopped out on short (but better than b/e so slight profit). Then went long when managed to get online – long is in profit, but looks like ive missed the top-tick, and mkt dropping!

    Anyone know any entry/exit timing device ?$tick, vol-spike?

  • Anonymous

    Good TICK trade an hour ago but may see retest.  RUT/IWM still close to highs as other 3 came off a little.
    I’d like to see RUT pop stops just above highs w/o the other 3 joining…and AUD/JPY move lower, DXY catch bid etc. etc. Is that too much to ask?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Internet outage at home, had to drive into work. geeeez.

    Isn’t it a unspoken rule here at EvilSpec not to mention Money size?

  • Joe_Jones

    “Isn’t it a unspoken rule here at EvilSpec not to mention Money size?”
    Yes. 

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Watch RUT, catching bid. IWM quick .12 pop

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/YLMPTAQGAPJI5AP2UTXDH3F53U emidub

     Sorry for the foul.  I’m just a flyby idiot, clogging up your board with rule violations and novice trading tales. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    10-ema $TICK has been positive for nearly the entire day since 1030h. But only a roughly 8-pt range on ES. 

    Big ticks coming now.

  • Schwerepunkt

    trying to understand why JPY is so strong today. Don’t get it.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ok.  not trying to knock the new guy.  kind of refreshing.
    welcome aboard.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I’d think with North Koreans digging tunnels for a nuke test, USD.JPY might find some life before the weekend. Maybe I should stop thinking . . . 

  • Anonymous

    I’d argue that it’s more a sign of the kind of people that frequent this site. Successful traders tend to not focus on money, but trading well i.e. according to their rules.

  • Anonymous

    I hope everyone has a great weekend!!!! Miller time

  • Anonymous

    The report on monetary policy at around midnight and then the report on GDP was better than estimate and the wording slightly hawkish. Twice mentioned in the report, at least:
    >>>Thereafter, it will likely be not too long before the rate [CPI] reaches the Bank’s “price stability goal in the medium to long term” of 1 percent for the time being.<<<

    my 2 cents…
    –D

  • Galazkiewicz

    I think ConvictScott has some great advice on this.  Don’t risk more than $50/trade until you can prove you are long-term profitable.  Stick around here and develop a rules-based process.  Paper trade it until you are comfortable moving to the $50/trade risk.  I don’t know your experience level, but you could do substantial damage to your account(s) trading without an edge/rules and trading with bias.

    Hope it helps and welcome aboard.

  • Schwerepunkt

    But didn’t they also expand their bond buying program?

  • rmserv

    ‘Painting the Picture’ – great charting tool. I would however not necessarily assume that the picture is complete yet. The lower trend line indeed would seem to be a valid boundary but I would like to offer the idea that perhaps there is more to come that may produce a spike even lower. If you align this chart with the NYSI (summation index), you will see that these spikes align with troughs after the 5th wave up (or peak) on the summation index. I use nomenclature a,b,c / A,B,C for various degrees of down troughs: ‘a’ troughs appear in Nov ’09 and Dec ’10: ‘A’ troughs appear in Feb ’10 and March ’11: ‘C’ troughs appear in Jun ’10 and Aug ’11. What we see repeating in the last three years is is a definite a-b-c (A), B, C after each 5 waves up on the NYSI. If the pattern repeats then we are currently either in an ‘a’ trough (with a ‘b’ and ‘c’ to come = ‘A’) or an ‘A’ trough already. The point is that we may yet possibly arrive at a ‘c’ or ‘C’ trough down after a ‘b’ (‘B’) up. The expectation would be for a deeper price move down to occur to resolve the divergences. Just a thought..

  • Joe_Jones

    Try to picture it with stockcharts using the “annotate” mode in flash.

  • volar

    NEW POST

  • Anonymous

    I read that too… I don’t think that influences the carry trade though… Not sure really.

  • Anonymous

    Refreshing? 🙂 I guess because knowing one is not alone… But on this scale, more like watching an accident in slow motion. 

    emidub , sir, I feel for you, but you need to stop now, what you’re doing is not trading, it’s gambling.

    My humble advice, write the loss off, it’s gone. Think of it like you totalled your new uninsured car, and got out alive and well.

    Start writing everything down, after you figure out what you want to do:
    – why you enter a certain trade, at the particular price
    – what exactly is your expectation of price behaviour, and time wise
    – what would be the behaviour that would contradict your expectation (that would be a stop loss price, but not only). and why
    – calculate what you are prepared to lose if you were not right (remember you won’t get rich in one trade and you want to have an account to trade another day) and size your trade by that
    – think how many trades you expect to lose for one win (that’s an expectation for the system, know when it;s broken)
    – make sure your reasonable, and reasoned on paper, expected win covers the number of losses you expect (as a rule of thumb, don’t expect more than one win per 2-3 losses – meaning your expected wins have to be more than 3 times expected losses)

    Basically, get this book and understand it before you continue trading: Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom – Van K. Tharp