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Step Three – Bear Squeeze!
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Step Three – Bear Squeeze!

by The MoleNovember 18, 2010

It wasn’t a pretty day for the bears. Our impending VIX buy signal not only confirmed today – it immediately resolved!

Ouch – that oughta hurt – a 14% drop in volatility in one day! Option buyers surely felt that one in the groin area. So, what’s next? Are we rallying all the way to Christmas?

Alright, theoretically speaking there is still a chance this was a b-wave and we’ll descend further down into c tomorrow – if you buy into EWT rules, that is.

Right, exactly – and pigs can fly. Because this means we would have to breach Tuesday’s lows and I’m not really seeing that play out right now.

The daily Zero wasn’t impressed by this correction in the first place – and the fact that we stopped in mid-air without the slightest proximity of a support zone/line does not spell well for the mojo of the grizzlies right now. I think they’re simply spent and took the opportunity to jump out of short positions at the first chance that presented itself. Basically, the bulls granted the bears a little mercy fuck – that’s how I see it.

What I really like however is that little channel that’s been painting on the DZ for the past two month. With three touches each we got ourselves a bonafide channel going – not bad. And which ever side breaches it will dominate equities for the remainder of the year and perhaps the first months of 2011. Now, it’s possible we stay inside – and even if we do we have probably at least another month or so until a serious divergence would present itself. Of course if we paint down while we stay inside the channel there would be no divergence – but such a weak signal accompanied by red candles would be bad news for the bears as it would represent a slow consolidation out of medium/long term overbought conditions.

And there you have it – the DZ road map for the next few weeks. If you’re not a Zero sub – well, I hope you didn’t get your ass handed to you today. If you did I hope you can still afford the 49 bucks per month – IMHO it’s cheaper than taking it on the chin on a constant basis 😉

One of the most interesting charts today was actually the DXY, which did not drop as much as equities ramped higher. So, this is a situation which still may give the bears some hope. IF we stay above the 78 mark there is limited hope for the bears. But just like last year it may take months for a rally in the Dollar to make itself felt over in equities – so don’t bet too much coin on that correlation.

Before I run – here’s a must-see clip for all stainless steel rats:

You know what to do. I already closed out all my accounts with major banks, but I’ll be wearing my Man U shirt on the 7th. Hey, with some luck this could start a second ‘French Revolution’, which citizens in other countries may just start emulating.

A day that may strike some fears into the decrepit hears of banksters worldwide – wouldn’t that be something for starters? 😉

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Biowolf

    I would love to see Eric´s right foot conect with Ben´s jaw.

  • malverd

    From kea11's prior post:
    Bernanke passing blame to China – Lets all play pass the hot potatoe! Will the Chinese go down as being the creators of this melt down – I think not! http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-turns-up-heat-on-china-currency-policy-2010-11-18
    Thrown a Monkey Wrench – Hmmm sounds positive going forward – what was that about Henny Penny.

    This should be good for a 300 point up rally tomorrow 😛

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Make that Ben's groin.

  • Fearless

    Re-posting from the previous post:

    Convictscott and others (except Mole ;p ),

    As per your request I am sharing a few things about the trend-trading methods I use that have helped my account to stay in the green. I only really started following my rules to the letters this year. In 2007 – 2009, I was using a timing based method to time the turning points, which allowed me to get out right before Lehman collapse and time my biggest short yet right before October 6 2008 crash, and also catching the February 10 2009 crash. Those are history now and the good time will not return for at least another year, so I've had to re-learn the best tools.

    When an average trader (and most E-Wavers I know) looks at an incredibly bullish/bearish chart, he/she immediately starts to pick the potential tops/bottoms to counter-trend trade it. DON'T DO THAT. Let's be honest here, who has looked at the Ford (NYSE:F) chart and tried to short the heck out of it? Who has looked at the BIDU chart and tried to pick tops? Who has shorted AAPL a hundred times since March 2009? When you look at a chart and the moving averages are all aligned and pointing in one direction, the easiest way to make money is in the same direction. What I use are pretty standard set of moving averages – the 5, 20, 50, and 200. I have a set of custom MAs that help me better track them, but essentially they do the same things.

    Before I go further with my methods, let's define one term – Acceleration line – the 5 day moving average of (open, high, low, close).

    A strong trend presents itself when the 200, 50, and 20 period MAs all point in the same direction. If the acceleration line points in the same direction, the trade is easy – buy on a weak (low volume) pullback to the acceleration line and close positions at the next resistance/support or hold until a confirmed two bar break of the acceleration line.

    A valid two bar break means an above-average volume break of the resistance/support, followed by a higher volume bar break of the same resistance/support and closing below (or above for bullish reversal) the low (or high for bullish reversal) of the first bar, provided that the bar does not close more than 47.2% off the lows/highs. A failed back-test means a low volume third bar (preferrably lower volume than the first breakout bar) whose high (or low for bullish reversal) does not exceed the high (or low) of the second breakout bar. Once all these conditions have been met, there is a high probability that the next bar will be a continuation in the direction of the first two bars until the next major support/resistance is met. This setup is exactly what tipped me off about Tuesday's sell-off and my monster performance (two bar break of the SPX acceleration line followed by a weak back-test on Monday).

    In a strong trend, the first major pullback to the 20 period MA is to be bought/sold in the direction of the major trend. For example, those who bought XOM on Tuesday or yesterday near its 20 day SMA are doing really well now. I will certainly not look (or short and hope) for a break of the 20 day SMA on Ford; I would rather buy it at its 20 day SMA now. Remember – hope is not a valid setup. (Prechter has been 'hoping' for P3 for 17 goddamn months!)

    Once you have a confirmed break of the 20 day SMA, close all intermediate term positions in the primary trend and trade with the new short term trend, until such time when the 20 day SMA is broken again from the opposite side.

    A friend of mine who was a die-hard EWT trader finally gave up on EWT and started using the conventional TA methods and trend-trading methods last month (more than 18 months after I told him EWT is useless in Fed sponsored markets). I see merits in EWT for short term trading (as it lets you know at which point you're wrong and must close positions), but the fundamental flaws in applying EWT is the trader's bias and ignoring the supply/demand equation (hence why I always look to volume to confirm my setups). I use trend-trading methods and Fibonacci ratios for my trading in 2010, plus I started using the Zero in June. Mole has developed the best LONG-SIDE TIMING INDICATOR I have found. On the daily Zero, look for a spike below -3 (or better, -5) and if the next day the market makes a lower low (or better, close lower) while the daily Zero snaps back to 0, go long, no questions asked. Hold through the bullish reversal and hold until a confirmed two bar break of the acceleration line. If you did that in February, you would have racked up 170 SPX points, and if you did that in August, you would have racked up 170 SPX points. The time it takes is longer than the short-side, but 170 SPX points are still 170 SPX points. The money you win on the long side is worth the same as the money you win on the short side.

  • Joe_Jones

    We need more like him

  • Joe_Jones

    Lot of turbulence tonight over the markets.

  • malverd

    eur/usd going uppppppppppppp

  • raised_by_wolves

    "Mole has developed the best LONG-SIDE TIMING INDICATOR I have found. On the daily Zero, look for a spike below -3 (or better, -5) and if the next day the market makes a lower low (or better, close lower) while the daily Zero snaps back to 0, go long, no questions asked."
    Sounds simple and effective.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sometimes one feels compelled to draw ratio charts for no practical purpose but to organize geometrical forms into a composition.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/61f00a69-8807-45ca-91a0-3db563da00a4/00002581.png

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    Yes, nice chart, it'd look nice framed on a wall.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Although that one has some nice shading, I think I've created a stronger composition with this one:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/49cc822f-7748-4c34-9149-6347fffc52be/00002585.png

    I call it, “Watch for the copper multiplied by silver divided by gold retest – No. 1”

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks Gary. Are you still trading? This one is for you. It's called, “Glitchy Matrix Market?”

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/52e0287f-d2f8-4384-b3e6-da7d23ed588b/00002589.png

  • raised_by_wolves
  • SW6

    It looks like Braxton and perhaps the European masters are in your blood.

  • SW6

    I was looking for globex session to break 1190ish to get me interested in selling but that hasn't happened.

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    I didn't like this one as much!

    As for my trading, I have only one hope left, as ever, a crash/major correction into the year'e end. Otherwise, the capital I have accrued over 20 years of hard work is mostly gone. At the moment my hope is still alive, so significant depression is just being kept at bay. I'll forever curse myself not pressing the button to close my trades as Bernanke spoke in August.

  • raised_by_wolves

    :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, that one is like cheap special effects mixed into a bad trip.

    I think the market is going to retest the recent highs. The immediate question is whether it will fail or succeed at the retest. Hopefully, the market will go your way. If it doesn't, don't curse yourself. If you can, laugh it off because life is absurd. Also, almost everyone besides Nassim Taleb blows up sooner or later. You'd probably still have more money than I do, and money is temporary* and arguably not even real.

    Best wishes.

    *Remember, you can't take money with you.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • raised_by_wolves

    That's a fucking great, man! Fucking great! So, uh, did you have a good time?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, but apparently not as good as Mole in Korea!
    hehehe.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Market Open < 2hrs

    DOW futures -60.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    In a similarly political vein…

    http://twitter.com/#!/KeithVazMP

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    WTF?
    oh,
    a link for a yanks :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Vaz
    mate.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/27ZC2SBQHQE6XD4KTTKHVENQNQ Ray

    Can you provide specific examples with dates to back up your statement. I may be missing this but I do not see this in the DZ.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/27ZC2SBQHQE6XD4KTTKHVENQNQ Ray

    Can you provide specific examples with dates to back up your statement. I may be missing this but I do not see this in the DZ.

  • Bob the Horse

    That's odd because I always thought he was a cunt.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • alessiov

    plan b, no?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ask the polar bear. I quoted him.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The convict's last words:

    "RBW, you are right, the most likely direction is now up. I didnt take the long inside day yesterday even though it would have worked, as for me there is insufficient edge on such a trade.

    "My trade plan for es is to now wait for a lower close retest of the recent low, and get long on the break of the high of that bar, or alternatively if the market tries to go up, but cannot tomorrow, painting a shooting star, get short on break of that low."

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Maybe that will be tomorrow's tweet…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ??

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it's OpX friday, the crystal ball goes in for repair.

  • amokta

    Gary, in a comment to CS yesterday, i did mention we hadnt heard from you.
    Good to here from you, despite the unfortunate way the market has played out for you.
    I think you said you had other business/activity that would make up for the loss, in the big picture?

    Anyway, like you, i have some shorts going underwater (but mostly in cash)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Mole, is there a real chance that the bank mutiny day would have a material impact on the Euro banks and global markets, or will it amount to nothing? I read ZH's take on it. Seems like a potential real threat. I wonder if the ECB is taking the threat seriously and might announce temporary restrictions on withdrawals like what happened in the US with Citi.

  • Bob the Horse

    I would rate the chances of anything actually happening as zero.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    My proprietary top secret Swiss-Swedish indicator appears to be saying long for the retest

    http://bit.ly/c06I5j

  • raised_by_wolves

    Silver to gold is still falling. Probably more intraday downside for equities.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sweet.
    do you have a 3month chart?
    468's are too big for my breakfast.
    :-)

  • Bob the Horse

    I am still buying stuff and getting longer. Let me explain why. I've looked at the reasons I was bearish:

    1. I thought Fed would wait for things to get worse before they stepped in – to avoid criticism. I was wrong – I think they have probably been a bit silly being this early but the facts are there is a lot of money being pumped into the system.
    2. I was worried by the EU debt situation. Well, now so is everyone else and it looks as though we will get another 'package' this weekend. This problem is not going away quickly but we have just had a 5% pull-back in Europe over this and now it looks like a can-kicking operation. Move on, in other words.
    3. I always said I thought the economy was entering a soft patch but there was a chance of acceleration later in the year. Well, it looks like the data is picking up again. The window for equities to go down has passed in all likelihood.

    So are equities expensive? Not really, not exactly all time cheap either but compared to sub-3% government bonds are a steal in a reflationary world.

    So to be bearish I now have to be really sure of deflation – but in the face of QE2, I don't like the odds of that.

    When I read the (newly) bearish calls from brokers, it essentially seems to be saying, sell because others might. That rarely works in my experience. You can get a bit of a shake-out but the downside never gets sustained unless the earnings momentum turn negative and I don;t see that. A lot of companies in my portfolio are signalling the opposite, that things are picking up again.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    You win.

  • Schwerepunkt

    You're probably right but you never know? Stranger things have happened, and with today's technology it wouldn't take much to overwhelm the system. Text-managed gatherings have been done for social commentary/art/chaos/fun reasons for a while now. And mixing a retired star from the pitch into it is brilliant as well.

    What would it take to get a bunch of people to withdraw money at the same time? Not much, I would say. Still, I imagine any action by the ECB or individual banks would just magnify the effect of any withdrawals. so, I doubt they would announce any counter-measures. Certainly, they will be monitoring their systems on December 7th, just in case they need to shut down their servers or take action.

    It'll still be interesting to see if anything does happen.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The moment I commented silver to gold (at least temporarily) bottomed.

    Did you mean a 3 minute chart? You really want a 3 month chart of silver to gold with 468s?

  • volar

    Also Copper is at risk of a fairly large correction IMO. So copper/$ telling same story.

    Anyways, GBP failed channel- was good trade this am.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    3 week.
    with some bands.
    surprise me.
    :-)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • volar

    It is a hard call. But a retrace of the copper on trend may work. Also lots of funds looking to get out of copper… $400 failure seems like a big deal to me- but been wrong plenty of times 😀

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    US Market Open < 30m

  • raised_by_wolves
  • 99er

    ES
    Head and Shoulders?
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/es_19.html
    Good luck, folks.

  • Fearless

    February 5 2010

    July 1 2010

    August 29 2010 (not quite made it to -3, but a significant positive momentum building on the DZ, which was my clue to go long at 1040).

  • amokta

    Do my ears decieve me, or is silver doing a tank?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • amokta

    Im adding this site to my portfolio of sites (gives live prices)
    According to my calculations (lol!) silver needs to return to $20 (assuming we have had some form of top)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    cool.
    I throw the link out there, cause ya never know.
    some people haven't fired up their trading platform, or they are out in some airport with a smart phone.
    :-)

  • OldChicago

    BTH, I give you credit to stand out against the stainless rats here. I will throw in my 2-cents:

    – We are entering in a seasonal positive time. At least until after Thanksgiving. But, if the tax cut isn't resolved soon, we could see selling at the year end for tax effect.
    – Performance anxiety on many fund managers.
    – IPOs kicking as too much money in the market.
    – If everyone is calling Bond bubbles, where will the money from Bond go? GM has gotten a big chunk. 21Billions of confidence in the market.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Market Open..

  • raised_by_wolves
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPY target 119.16 [paper trade]

  • Joe_Jones

    Bear got squeezed but bounced back 'cause him too fat from excessive hibernation. He just had his coffee and getting ready to chomp on some bull steak for breakfast.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    Absolutely love it! LOL!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    DOW -45

  • raised_by_wolves

    Copper to dollar moved below a smidgen below that previous bottom and is now a little above. ES is now retesting the 10 day VWAP -1 standard deviation for something like the sixth time this morning.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/508abe07-5610-4df7-a61c-ef59418619d8/00002605.png

    Come on, Deckard, show me what you're made of.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    $UVOL-$DVOL already at -230,000… interesting.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • 99er
  • Fearless

    Today is a crappy day for trend-trading. The MMs have decided that all actions would stop after 10 am ET. I'm out of here, up on the week.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • BobbyLow

    Look at the 10:30 to 10:45 Candle on the ES. You can almost set your clock by the action. Amazing.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_2BPY23ACJJBIKLJF24FWJ3J4FA Joe Turner

    Fearless, last week you commented on your 5 day sma sell rule, could you elaborate on it ?Also if the stock is down for 3 straight days what bar is the basis of reference?TIA

  • Fearless

    Look at my long post near the bottom of today's comments.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    The u.s. banks have about 4.7 trillion in deposits …. lets call it 4. Lever that up 30 times and you have 120 trillion. If you assume a 20% loss that's 24 trillion. Thus, just to keep things even, you would have to print 24 trillion. Any money created that backs pre- existing debt/assets would just replace stuff that is already being treated as money. So I think deflation is more likely. Prices could go up based on a decrease in available goods (i.e. hoarding due to a loss of faith in fiat) but not due to extra money in relation to the available goods as (I think) the money is just being used to make good on pre-existing debt.

    Anyway, the question of infation/defation, while very important for the economy and markets on a longer time frame (setting the context for the next few years) I don't think it will be resolved in a way that perdictably moves the market over the time frames I am trading.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Congrats to anyone who made some money on the long scalp. I didn't enter it because I only have one day trade and have to be extremely selective. A simultaneous copper to dollar and ES low was suspect in my mind even though everything else looked perfect.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/743238bd-4127-4740-b018-42737261bb2f/00002608.png

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    Weren't things looking up in late April? And then we fell off a cliff.

    I've realised in the past 6 months that markets are irrational and no one knows what comes next!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_2BPY23ACJJBIKLJF24FWJ3J4FA Joe Turner

    Thanks,very informative post.

  • Bob the Horse

    actually things looked bad in april, greek spreads gave ample warning

  • raised_by_wolves

    Your ears may deceive you.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    IHS on the hourly..

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Although my TRIN and TICK MAs look like death, pointing due south right now..

  • malverd

    nice chopping around this morning

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    I'll be ok, I realised a few years ago that life is essentially pretty pointless (not in a suicidal way, just ultimately it all serves no purpose). The loss of 20 years cash is hard to deal with though, from a pyschologial viewpoint. I am not a flashy, consumerist or materially driven person (hence the cash was just sat in the bank rather than being spent, but it's very damaging to one's physche to wipe out a lifetimes savings with stupid actions.

    My motivation was to pack up work, as I work in the financial advise game, and have a view that so much shit is coming, I know that will get harder. Plus, it gives me no enjoyment, although it pays well. I wanted to go caddy on the pro golf tour actually.

    Also, I have family I wanted to provide for, that's no longer possible.

    Anyway, life goes on until it doesn't, shit happens, often to me!

    Thanks for your best wishes.

    Oh, if you want to email me, my address is on my blog, I shouldn't put so much personal stuff on a blog really!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you sure?
    double check.

  • malverd

    oops wrong reply button 😛

  • malverd

    sorry for your misfortune. fwiw, i have taken big hits in the past. as they say $$ isn't crap, if you don't have good health and a great family. best wishes.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    now we know who the 'fat finger' is.
    would you happen to work @ Waddell & Reed per chance?

  • malverd

    haha 😛

    i can see this is going to be ONE of those days….

  • malverd

    while we're waiting for a top, how's that irish contagion doing 😛
    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AI1ME20101119

    This should be good for about 1200+

  • amokta

    Looks like i need new spectacles!

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    I think you're clutching at straws Bob, and revising history too.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE63M4XA20100423

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-06/oil-rises-to-17-month-high-on-optimism-about-economic-recovery.html

    http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1282469

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-still-needs-low-rate-medicine-lockhart-2010-04-15

    Those are just a few of the many articles that evidence the general mood at the time. And as for Greece, now we have Ireland & Portugal spreads, but this time they don't give an 'ample warning' according to your argument, as well as Munis and States.

    What's the difference? None whatsoever.

    No one knows.

  • BobbyLow

    Gary,

    I wish you the best. This market has taken a lot of good people out including new traders, old traders, and professionals.

    I've blown up my account twice in 12 years and was recently on the way to blowing it up again leaving barely enough seed money to stay in this game. I think what hurts most of us is when we try to use conventional logic and believe that 2+2=4 when the market is saying 2+2=16. Trying to make any logical sense out of market action is futile at best.

    However, I do believe that the two Major Components of Fear and Greed are still mainstays but just in a more sophisticated way. Right now Greed is firmly in control of this market and will continue to be in control until Fear takes over at some point which it will. Trying to assume when that changeover will take place is what has hurt us.

    In any event, losing large sums of money really hurts both financially and spiritually. I've been there and it sucks.

    But no matter what, I know that I've done the best that I could and believe that you have done the same. That's all you could have done so if it's time to move on, so be it. Failure in this market is a given for most who ever try it. Just look at who and what you have competed with.

    Gary, I've read a lot of what you have written and you appear to be a very smart guy. And I think you'll find a way to put this behind you and enjoy life again.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Could be rolling over here…

    http://bit.ly/bph4Cb

  • amokta

    Fearsome post from a Fearless trader!
    Thanks for the insight

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_VSVXKYHCX5MPKIR6C2MRTTL42U Celtic33

    Buy WNR. Going to $12 next week.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    XLE $62.96 currently
    SKYNET is so dumb, or is it the hu-mans?
    😯
    http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2010/11/pivot-points.html

  • Joe_Jones

    Looks like the BOTs aims for a green finish Friday

  • AudioTactics

    Does anybody know when a definitive announcement regarding the Irish Bank Bailout is expected? TIA

  • 99er
  • yudhisthira

    VIX. Like a falling stone.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_VSVXKYHCX5MPKIR6C2MRTTL42U Celtic33

    Buy WNR. Going to $12

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2 plus hours, drip drip drip.
    relentless.

  • 99er
  • Fearless

    If you are a bear, you want to hope that the VIX just drops dead and closes sub-17. That will penetrate the lower Bollinger Band. But like I said, hope is not a valid setup. Don't pull a Prechter here.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Wedge, ES 5 min

    http://bit.ly/cwXJnt

  • 99er
  • yudhisthira

    Yeh. I was looking at that.

  • Fearless

    Sometimes following your gut instincts can help a lot. When I saw the market couldn't drop below 1190 this morning, I knew that all of the potential trade-trade setups will fail so I closed all positions. Next week I will not open new positions on Monday, and will likely skip the end of the year run. There is nothing bearish folks, but nothing explosively bullish either. I guess I'll just look at the EOD data every day to determine if I want to trade the next day. Bring on January 2011. I can't wait.

  • malverd

    seriously, what a stupid day!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Rule #13 –
    do not open positions on OpX, only close for profit.
    :-(

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you have a point.
    my experience last year was no fun. lots of light volume price floating higher, theta burn.
    thanks giving, check.
    xmas, check.
    newyears, check.

  • Fearless

    There is only one possible Black Swan event and if it's going to take place it's going to occur outside of Banana Ben's market. Only the futures market may be affected (so if you're trading /ES keep an eye after Wednesday's close.). The cash index will likely recover and close in the green. The first three days of December are possible tradable days, but outside of those three days, the rest of them are just theta burn.

  • Joe_Jones

    This is horribly boring. TGIF.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • yudhisthira

    Russell 2000 first to exceed Thurs high.

  • Joe_Jones

    I wish someone could drive this baby into BB's backside…

  • Joe_Jones

    On second thoughts, it might be a bad idea because he'll probably enjoy it too much

  • yudhisthira

    Bollinger Band? He runs the fed?

  • malverd

    looks like we might be getting toppy here

  • Joe_Jones

    The latter of course

  • BobbyLow

    So far it looks like it was the right move to close out my short on TLT yesterday for a .5R gain due to my new time limits as I would have gotten stopped out today anyway. IMO, the Bond Market is a bigger time bomb then the stock market but I guess discretion is the better part of valor.

    I kind of re-shuffled the deck today and closed out everything else except for my SPY Lottery Tickets. After which I saw reason to open a new short of the Q's. However, I do not have strong conviction on any new short at the present time so I have made the trade almost neutral by buying ATM December Calls at a 2:1 Ratio so that my net Delta is currently only -.13

    One of the good things about the Low Vix is that when I bought the calls there was only a 15 Cent Time Value Premium for ATM. So if the Q's Ramp up, the trade will go Delta Positive very quickly and perhaps I can make money to the up side. And as I write this, the Delta as already gone down to -.12 so maybe upside is the way this one goes. Whatever. :)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • yudhisthira

    Thanks for that. Just lost all appetite.

  • malverd

    come on baby

  • yudhisthira

    /TF following upper deviation of vwap.
    http://screencast.com/t/tfqRmbbpgt0t

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    UUP at 4+ day neckline support.
    it's a 5m candle..not sure if the HFT's are just playing with the stops.
    -GG

  • malverd

    what's the vwap, i'm watching the candles

  • yudhisthira

    volume weighted average price. Mole uses it on 5 min Zero chart.
    So far INDU, SPX, and Nasdaq Composite have not confirmed Russell slight new high over Thursday.
    I also picked a short term top there, but not really believing in it yet.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • malverd

    it's looking promising

  • malverd

    interesting; what kind of accuracy?

  • yudhisthira

    That AUD/HKD keeps wedging back up today.
    /TF clings to upper deviation of vwap.
    Seems likely that non-confirmation will be resolved soon to upside.
    http://screencast.com/t/Fgdy9kEUk

    Also Zero.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not sure. but it gets thrown around a lot.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    UUP stationary for 30m..

  • Joe_Jones

    I guess POMO is back today

  • malverd

    top rejected again

  • Schwerepunkt

    He has three noses so he can “smell all the money he's printing.”

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, something stinks.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Market Close in < 60m

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra
  • malverd

    $ gaining some steam

  • Schwerepunkt

    Really low volume candles right now either side of 3pm. Market should turn down from here, with no buying interest around 1197ES.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nice.
    looks like RBW trained you well.
    the dollar is holding is value steady recently. (in GLD terms)

  • 99er
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..but that would mean 2 red weeks in a row!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nice.
    While not a guarantee, many peaks have an echo (secondary) peak.
    in my observations.

  • malverd

    1190?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i'm a believer in pinning,
    but hard for me to believe SPY 119 in just 45 minutes.
    how about 119.75?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yep, possibly forming a nice RS of IHS there..

  • Fearless

    If the market closes slightly in the green then there could be a surprise setup. The surprise being that today's action is a fake-out and Monday gap down and crap becomes the surprise. I will re-iterate, however, that do not rely on hope for the trade. I will look at the EOD data and Monday's morning actions before deciding whether to participate on Monday.

    The VIX is sporting a positive divergence right now (on the daily) and if it closes more than 52.8% off its lows then it's possible that we get a gap and crap Monday.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    52.8%?

  • raised_by_wolves

    My silver scenarios:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/9c86d073-c1c6-465d-af99-f521e98dd215/00002609.png

    I'm looking for a retest. Watch the daily price action closely to see how this plays out.

  • Fearless

    Usually 50% will do, but just to be on the safer side, 52.8%.

  • amokta

    Silver keeps throwing me – i go long it falls, i go short it rises
    I think Mole says he doesnt trade PMs (well not on a ST/MT basis)
    I am taking a step-back for now

  • Fearless

    Are you counter-trend trading? Maybe that's why.

  • chronographics

    Gary, although I don't know you aside from the information you have provided here, i a, sorry to hear that you have gone the way of many market participants. the Market is a cruel and tough master and even some brilliant traders have been chewed up and spat out in pieces at times. I got to say though that there were some here who tried to warn you (myself included) you can never “bet the house” on a move. I disagree with you when you say no one knows what's coming next. The trouble with trading is that you not only need to know what's next but you need to have the timing right. Its a double whammy :-)
    We all get it wrong sometime its our responsibility to make sure that when we do we are still able to keep trading at a similar level next time round. That is the only mistake I see you have made, not the bet on market direction or timing. So take this lesson, learn from it and start building your account again. If you earn well like you say it may take you a while but if you are disciplined you will get there in the end. Hope it works for you mate :-)

  • BobbyLow

    I stopped trading the PM's for the same reason and that they are even more difficult to anticipate moves via even easier institutional/governmental manipulation. So unless it's a long term hedge play or you are an expert and have a feel for the moves which I don't, I would stay away.

  • convictscott

    Today to me looked like a low participation textbook gap fade.

    IMO An *outstanding* trade is setting up for Monday. At this stage it looks like painting a small range inside day.

    Statistically inside days across all markets have a 68% probability of resolving at least the range of the inside day within 3 trading days, in the direction of the initial break BEFORE hitting a stop at the other daily extreme (low for break of high and vice versa). Betting odds. Because of the nature of indexes, the percentage is appreciably higher on $spx than on other markets, above 75% over the last year. The standard way to trade them is to go long/short on break of the high/low, with a stop at the other end of the daily bar. A very tight stop play is possible here, low risk.

    I believe this trade is good because the high is very close to 1200 spx, which should trigger another round of popped stops for the bears, and likely start a positive feedback loop attracting dip buyers back.

    Also, I would take it short on a break of the daily low as well. The bulls really should have been able to press their advantage at this point, and the afternoon rally on weakening volume and momentum, failing to capture new highs, was hardly convincing. I can make a number of arguments for the short side on a 1-3 day basis (although long is by far the highest probability right now), but the most convincing is that the retracement from the trend day lows of 2 days ago still (but only just) looks like a bear flag, and counts as an abc correction (but i hate that shit).

    Also, statistically trend days happen most often after a boring low participation day, which is exactly what we have here.

    Arguments for the bearish side…. euro painted a shooting star candle with an embedded bollinger band, making it a high probability trade for Monday (and currency markets open first so could lead the way)

    Other trades worth looking at – a break of the daily high on AUDUSD is a retest variation buy (stop 1 tick under daily low). 10 Year bonds are an inside day sell (dont take as a buy in embedded bollinger band) JPYUSD is an inside day as well.

  • convictscott

    I feel the same way. Particularly gold has weird seasonality, cross currents of industrial demand and indian jewellry demand, central bank intervention, the gold buggers…

    Its a very very difficult market to trade, and I just think there are easier ponds to fish in.

    I tested my own methods across a lot of markets and my expectancy is over double on es futures (also on ym and nq) than it is on any other market.

  • convictscott

    You are failing because the part of your psyche which is making the decision is part of the herd. Silver is in an extreme speculative stage, so by the time you get the confidence to go short, you are picking by definition almost the exact bottom. By the time you finally couldnt help yourself to go long, you got the exact top.

    Markets are 99% losers, and the losers all think very similarly when under survival pressure. You might think its just another trade, but your psyche thinks its life and death, whether your silver trade is profitable. Under life and death pressure, you tend to think like every other market participant, and almost exactly you can sell short at a bottom that way.

    Personally I have a rule that whenever I have a trade with a >1R open profit intraday, and I am walking around thinking I am super-clever and planning on a 5R win, I *immediately* close half the position and tighten stops.

  • yudhisthira

    Nice Euro spike into close.

  • convictscott

    Its a definite possibility at this stage, especially if the currencies lead the way by the time the market opens on Monday. Such a gap down would be a pretty vicious bull trap, and probably drive things down to around the 50 EMA

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    read this amokta – a nice piece.

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/hamilton111210.html

    Hamilton's been doing it for a decade.
    -GG

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    *Market Closed*

    it's the weekend!

  • convictscott

    That was yesterday mate! We have new pieces of the puzzle today, everything is becoming *much* clearer, and I'm very excited about Monday.

    Bottom line, a little bit more strength and we see *explosive* to the upside as the last of the bears capitulate. In this case a tiny move above 1200 should see us at new highs in short order.

    Conversely, objectively the move still looks like a short term downtrend, and over the last months SIMPLE technical analysis has worked, and complicated shit like wave counts, sentiment, has failed utterly. With that in mind, I think a downmove is totally tradeable.

    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/image23.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes…weekends unless you are sure..best to be flat, or hedged, ..and make sure you have a few beers/wine

    ?”Beer is the proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy” ..Benjamin Franklin

  • 99er

    SPX
    Congratulations Ben!
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/spx_4707.html
    Have a great weekend, folks!

  • convictscott

    I blew up 6 times before I came good.

    Just come back with a proper method, do some internal work on yourself, get a trading stake, and do it properly this time.

    I'm sorry it worked out for you this way, I have been where you are, and the emotional pain is very very intense.

    I have a lot of compassion for where you are :)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that's turning into a Gann grid.
    1213 by Turkey Day.
    :-(

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i've blown up once.
    you mean I've got 5 more times to go!?!
    d@m!

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra
  • convictscott

    Fearless – Many thanks for posting this, I plan to go through it in detail over the weekend.

    If everyone posted more of their methods, and less guesses about market direction, this would be an even better blog.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Even better? Impossible!!! :-)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have a theory, but seems everything is fine in la la euro – land
    http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2010/11/xmas-dollar.html

  • yudhisthira

    Vix making run at lower BB again.
    http://screencast.com/t/tLnJYVeEJ

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    When in doubt – go with the trend. Good thoughts and arguments can be made for the bullish and bearish side. If this is a c wave before a final dump then it ought to get us to SPX 1220. That is probably where a short trade may be attempted, assuming the Zero and other indicators fall in line.

    Now, if this is a third wave we'll probably feel it on Monday – quite simple.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Sometimes following your gut instincts can help a lot.”

    And often it can kill you dead. Stick with the charts – unless of course your 'gut instinct' is merely the summary of a collection of indicators and momentum measures.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I posted a Boatload of Charts, some good indicators. Check it out and comment please.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  • Fearless

    Yup, most times I look at the indicators first before I follow my gut instincts.

  • convictscott

    Makes very good points – particularly about big money sloshing into this tiny market driving the price to wild extremes

  • raised_by_wolves

    40*SLV=1069.60
    10*GLD=1322.00

    Is the idea is to give SLV and GLD a similar value? Although this probably won't make a big difference in how the charts renders, how about updating “Fear Factor” and “Precious Metals Exuberance Index” with 49*SLV?

    49*SLV=1310.26

  • raised_by_wolves

    What's the logic again behind adding x SLV and y GLD and then multiplying by (SLV)/(GLD) [or dividing by (GLD)/(SLV) as you do]? Why not just chart (SLV)/(GLD)? Are the trend lines better?

  • amokta

    Thanks CS, BobbyLow, Fearless, and GG
    -all valid point & usefu linfo
    Basically i am going back to the drawing board/no-cash trades, and try to get some rules & a clear trading style, so i dont keep having duff trades

    anyway, have a good weekend!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The 140 year trend is very simple. UP.. with a few dips.
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/6-19-09-secular-cycles-1.gif
    😉

    (GG ducks)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The earthquake predictor guy (Daniel Yourman)
    looks strangely familiar to Ben Franklin.

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    ES indicators – 6 timeframes at End of Day, End of Week, End of OpX:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/rGRlveGR7J9y

    Have a great weekend!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    MOle said keep it simple,
    this is as simple as I can get.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p82475159423

    IMHO, 'it is on the fence line' – just the way the evil market likes to do it.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Historically Gold has been 40 time price of silver, long term averages. Thus my pick of numbers, if I have time I will adjust to 49 and see if it renders much different.

    Silver is reatil gold….IMHO

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Just a cool unique chart, only been doing it a month, I think it shows PM emotion better.

    for now its a test drive

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Nice the 120MA rocks

  • raised_by_wolves

    Okay, I'm seeing significant differences between PMEI and SLV/GLD now that I'm looking at the 2 year daily chart (I had been looking at the 60 day 60 minute chart when I commented).

    (SLV)/(GLD)
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/9efa05b4-a378-4fe5-9639-6c5cd9cc05db/00002612.png

    (SLV*40+GLD*10)*(SLV)/(GLD)
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/d1e9f669-fde8-482c-9c9e-1e0f596a4a6e/00002613.png

  • raised_by_wolves

    SLV/GLD is probably more of an oscillator, eh?

  • Eva S

    When will these charts start to drop? I was hoping to see more weakness in gold and silver this week….

  • Fearless

    For the bearish short term trend to re-assert itself again the market will need to open with a gap down on Monday and craps down below 1183.54 without breaching 1200.29 while closing near the session's low. Anything else will just be a buying opportunity.

  • raised_by_wolves

    If we pretend silver topped, its comeback this week really shouldn't be a surprise given what ConvictScott has taught us about retests.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Eva S

    Yes, it's a little insane. GLD looks a little weaker and like it's starting to roll over.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey Kitty, check this out. The formula may look complex but the chart it produces is both simple and simply beautiful.

    (JJC*26+SLV*49+GLD*10)*(JJC)*(SLV)/(GLD)
    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/61411991-9069-4737-9d15-abbb4734abb3/00002619.png

    I have to go forage for my evening meal so will discuss this chart more later.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    ConvictScott, pretend with me; pretend this isn't a ratio; pretend it is a symbol that can be traded. Would you long on break of high and short on break of low?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/61411991-9069-4737-9d15-abbb4734abb3/00002619.png

  • raised_by_wolves

    "Now, if this is a third wave we'll probably feel it on Monday - quite simple."
    Excellent comment, sir—all of it as well as this thought in particular.

  • Joe_Jones

    99% agreed

  • raised_by_wolves

    Have you seen this chart, sir? Yeah, I should probably add a 133 extension to the upside as well—not that I think that is the probable scenario but because it is a possible one.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/61411991-9069-4737-9d15-abbb4734abb3/00002619.png

  • SW6

    Why the frown? You won't turn in to a pumpkin if you get long for a few handles. :)

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Looks awesome, hope you dont mind I posted it at my site.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Not at all, especially since I extended your idea. Just don't pass it along to your contacts in corporate media, okay? 😉

  • Eva S

    Cool chart! I think there's a possibility that precious metals will go down, while the dollar and the rest of the market go higher.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    HBB is restricted from my site. I have a filter that send them to an alternate site where all the world is bullish all the time.

  • convictscott

    As you well know, that would be a textbook short with a reasonable probability of forming an interim or medium term top :)

    Sent from my iPad

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_2BPY23ACJJBIKLJF24FWJ3J4FA Joe Turner

    Fearless, on that 2 bar break rule, could you define above avg, volume? i.e. is it say 10% above 30 day avg ,What are the parameters? Thanks for all your insights.

  • 99er
  • SW6
  • amokta

    Miracles do happen – Lazarus raised the dead, Moses parted the Red Sea, Mole went a whole day without complaining about lack of participation on the blog :-)

    Anyway, spiritual lesson of the day – Seek, and ye shall find..the answer in the charts

  • raised_by_wolves

    So, the chemist NPR interviewed thinks gold always has been the best element to be used as money here on earth (elsewhere gold could be too abundant or too rare). At the conclusion of the article, NPR mentions that today we use paper money instead of gold. That's true when considering analog money, but someone should point out to NPR that most money today is digital. Erase the debt record Alec Trevelyn or Tyler Durden style and. . . .

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Damn, it's quiet in here…

  • amokta

    :-)
    With the tape being choppy for months, friday eve until sunday afternoon is a ghost town! Anyway might drop in when futures open sunday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not complaining – we all need time off from the tape.

  • amokta

    What is 'HBB' – the most relevant expansion i can find is 'Hot Bi Babe' ?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Humoungous Bank and Broker — the great evils of modern financial gimmickry. You know –Goldman, Fischer, Schwab

    Hot Bi babes are always welcome, as long as they are at least Bi

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Eerie even.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not even a church mouse.

  • yudhisthira

    Taibbi article on insider trading emails seems to implicate the Fed, but doubts investigation will go that high.
    http://tinyurl.com/26me566

  • convictscott

    The basis of the patterns I trade is where other traders put their stops, and what the weak and strong hands are doing. I am not ruling out trading on ratio charts (I know many who do so successfully) but I would be remiss if I didnt point out the assumptions involved.

    The whole basis of the retest variation sell is as follows.

    In a strong uptrend beyond a certain point the greater fool theory takes over, and *distribution* occurs, defined as a passing of ownership from the strong hands to the muppet traders. Muppet traders are different in that they flip-flop easily, go from being sure that silver is going to the moon, to thinking silver is the greatest short ever.

    When the muppet traders get involved at the end of a move you can profit by fading their extremes of emotion.

    Anytime there is a strong uptrend there are bulls on the sidelines who sold out too early or didnt get in at all, and kicked themselves, and are looking for a place to get back in. There are also retail investors who only find out about a move in its terminal stage. A pullback attracts those buyers, usually just after some kind of elliott analogue abc correction, just enough to shake out some longs.

    What this means is that control of the long contracts/shares has passed from strong hands with a lot of unbanked profit, who can ride out a normal 38% retaracement without getting scared, to weak hands, who screenwatch and ride every little bump in the tape as though their lives depends on it.

    See Amotka's flip flop on Silver last week (NOT hanging shit on you Amotka, its just a good example of how a person late in a move has a different expectation that a person who is holding for a long time, and the whole character of jonny-come-latelys in a move is to be shaken out very easily. This is because every late buyer's underlying fear is that they are the ultimate fool, left holding the bag when the bubble collapses. The slightest evidence of this fear being realised causes a flight/fight reaction in poor traders.

    So when we get a pullback in a strong uptrend, dip buyers magically appear.

    What *should* happen at this point, and does >85% of the time is that the stock/future/currency starts to go up again, typically after touching some kind of support/moving average. The buying pressure at this point should cause any remaining shorts to capitulate, and add to buying pressure, quickly driving to new highs. This is what *should* happen, but if buying pressure, which is the strongest it will be, cannot push to new highs, its a strong sign that the upmove is *vulnerable* to a larger scale shakeout.

    This is so because those recent dip buyers have an opportunity to have their stops very close, in many cases at breakeven, and we have already established they are weak hands, jittery and able to jump for any reason. Also, trend followers towards the end of a move will often place stops at various moving averages, so a little weakness, can start a cascade of stop running, until the trendline is broken, causing shorts to become interested, and a positive feedback loop of bearishness to come into play.

    Basically I'm not sure how or even IF this translates to gold/silver ratio, but I bow to your superior knowledge on the subject :)

  • convictscott

    Agree completely, If this is a downmove we should see it as a buttslam downwards with negative internals from the open. Anything else is bullish IMO.

    My confusion at this point relates to how to play a break of the daily high (my trigger point to get long) pre-Monday open. I'm thinking of taking it with a reduced position and hedging with an additional euro short on break of the daily low

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Watch the Zero – I think it'll show us the way come Monday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you hear that Amokta? Scott just called you a muppet :-))

  • http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/ Serge

    Hey Michael,
    I actually met Eric he lives in the building next to mine.. really cool guy 😉

    Great video BTW

  • convictscott

    Is it a trading holiday Monday?

  • convictscott

    Typically retests happen on a number of timeframes, starting as small as 15 min, and then cascading. Its not uncommon in a strong trend to have a daily retest, then another one on a weekly frame, and then monthly. Fits in with wave theory.

  • convictscott

    No I *like* Amotka and his contribution here, but he did join the muppet-trading-crew briefly last week :-)

  • convictscott

    That channel line on the daily zero is my focus at the moment. Could go either way, but if you have any other interpretation I'd appreciate it :)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Actually, Lazarus was raised from the dead, Moses parted the Red Sea, and Mole was impressed enough with our participation the other night that he put up another post.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm pretty much oblivious to holidays. Without googling, I'd have to guess whether Christmas falls on the 25th or the 26th. I've even missed my own birthday once.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Whereas Taibbi wrote this as a transition sentence . . .

    "Compared to a situation in which the entire economy was based on fraud schemes like the mass sales of mismarked AAA-rated mortgage-backed assets, worrying about hedge-fund gamblers skimming a few billion here and there off of insider info seems almost misguided."
    . . . that would have been my thesis. Beyond maybe scapegoating a smaller player, I doubt anything will be done. I wouldn't fast from food much less hold my breath.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Are you always watching multiple timeframes? If not, how often do you change timeframes? I'll keep an eye out for cascading retests.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm going to read this again when I'm less high. :-)

  • SW6

    Indeed!

    Also, they claim that paper money doesn't kill. Tell that to survivors of a hyperinflation.

  • Anonymous

    GAry

    FWIW my view is we are likely in a 10% correction followed by 200 pts on S&P. Nothing goes in a straight line. Start smallish then build with pull backs then after 1300 reduce and reduce. You can bulid back up but be as unemotional as you can. If you want to talk as I;m also in Uk i can call you, where;s your blog for your email?

  • 99er
  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_4VGBQDTKN2ZKBJ62MSQRWBVL6U Sunberry
  • 99er

    Why Wait Until 7 December?

    Ireland's biggest banks are facing collapse this week unless an immediate international bail-out package can be agreed, senior insiders have revealed.

    Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland have each suffered a multibillion-euro ‘run’ as foreign investors withdraw their cash amid fears that both institutions are effectively bust.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1331690/Ireland-bailout-Banks-brink-collapse.html#ixzz15wgFdiSc

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Because it would make a statement if the gray unwashed masses are getting organized to do this as a strategic message to the banks. Because there is no law against taking money out of a bank – if enough people do this it will get their attention. Think about it – thus far the banksters gotten away with any scheme they wanted. Remember how scared the looked in 2008 right before the big slew of bailouts started? After that they relaxed quickly, knowing that Bernanke got their backs. And recently they started to pay themselves record bonuses – in essence they fell they can get away with anything they like. And thus far they are right.

    It's up to the people to change this situation. But let's not be naive – if I was a bankster I would probably not be sweating. Most citizens these days are complacent and chances are not much will happen on December 7th. The big boys always win – always.