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Party Like It’s 2007
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Party Like It’s 2007

by The MoleAugust 17, 2012

This is going to be a very short post and I came up with five paltry reasons: 1. I don’t see any new setups I deem noteworthy. 2. All of our recent setups are in good shape and we should not get over exposed at this juncture. 3. My laptop’s display is broken and I’m using my wife’s AirBook and LogMeIn to post this. 4. My left arm hurts. 5. It’s Friday of OPEX week 😉

Of course the big news of today is the new low on the VIX – we are now in 13 territory, readings unseen since the heydays of 2007. IMNSHO volatility is grossly underestimating risk here but it confirms the old saying (and you know what’s coming): the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent. Frankly I’m happily sitting this one out – at least until we are touching some of the target clusters I proposed yesterday.

Also acting as an appetite suppressant for anything remotely vega positive is this little jewel. I haven’t seen a divergence of those proportions since late March and you all recall what happened next.

If you took the ZN Maginot line breach then I suggest you use today’s ID candle to manage your positions on Monday. A breach of today’s high would be your stop out. A breach of today’s low would be your signal to stay in or to even add positions. If you are still waiting for an entry on crude then it seems your prayers to the dark Lord have been answered.

A teeny weeny change on copper – meaning that we are now long. The NLBL breach happened before the NYSE openend and dutifully I sent out an email to my subs. I suggest you put a stop below that Net-Line and sacrifice a chicken in hopes of a decisive move here. FWIW – I can’t wait for the end of summer and for some early fall fireworks.

In case you wonder – yes, I’m going to break down and buy a new lappy on Saturday. Fixing the old one would cost me almost 500 Euros, not worth it for a 2008 MacBook Pro. The new Retina ones are delicious but unfortunately a lot more expensive here in Spain than in the U.S. Shipping one over here would cost almost the same as they’ll slap 18% VAT on it in customs. I was planning on buying one in October when I’m back in California for a few weeks but Apple must  have gotten wind of my plans and somehow remotely pulled the kill switch.

Enjoy your weekend 😉

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • DarthTrader

    007 License to Kill

  • AMCabrera

    You man friend have a great weekend! 

  • Wave_Surfer

    So much for Max Pain.There are going to be a LARGE number of people that are going to have options expire deeply In The Money.

  • ridingwaves

    PAL is pushing higher with the South African Mine issues, police shooting strikers etc..heavily shorted
    10 days to cover…spot price up 3%…could see a nice short squeez if not already..

    palladium

  • DarthTrader

    Day is Young

  • Joe_Jones

    Final hour. I hope we get this final ramp. 

  • Wave_Surfer

    I Don’t think it will close anywhere near 137.  There is only about 45 min left.

  • DarthTrader

    True That

    I just had a mentor who always said that 

  • Darth_Gerb

    You sure it’s not the right arm?
    [*Warning – Bear Porn*]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS4e1_gW6Es 
    😉

  • MidLife

    AAPL sure is helping the cause

  • Joe_Jones

    AAPL is a muppet honey pot now

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole, can you post your MMMR indicator when you have the chance?

  • BobbyLow

    Well we’re still in what I would call an after hours range on the last day of OPEX. Who woulda eva thunkit?

    During days like today and especially on days when I have a position in play that is doing well, I like to spend time studying something that I haven’t studied before.  Lately, I’ve been studying and working with P&F and find it quite interesting.  It’s funny how the mind can be more receptive when things are going well.  🙂

    I understand that there is a constant need for setups and charts and that these are the bread and butter of why we are here.However, for me there is nothing more important than the psychological aspects of this game.   Where do my weaknesses lie and how do I control them?   

    I’ve lost track of time but I think it was a couple of years ago that Mole showed some “tough love” and more or less told me to quit my bitching.  And then Convict Scott came along and helped me to begin self contemplation as to why I traded the way that I did.  So I guess what I’m saying is that IMO, it is not just setups and charts that are important to survive and more importantly thrive in this business.  

    Of course Mole has the final say as to what is said here.

    Another thing that I do during slow periods is read and re-read anything and everything from the life of Jesse Livermore.  Why?  Because I have a built in forgetter.  

    I find this quote very appropriate for today and every trading day.” A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him.  Never argue with it or ask for reasons or explanations.”  Jesse Livermore

  • amokta

    Facebook approaching 19.00 mark – looks like DarthT is right about abc heading into low teens!

  • Joe_Jones
  • Schwerepunkt

    Less than 5-pt range with less than 30-min to the close today. Haven’t seen a day like that for a long while. I would expect a BIG range on Monday.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Good one, thanks
    Been watching it too
    Also FAGIX:VUSTX is good

  • Darth_Gerb

    $13.48 by my Fib projection (161%)

  • Joe_Jones

    I would buy at that price

  • Joe_Jones

    Alright, day is coming to an end. I am placing 1/4 position short to hold over the w-e.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Short ES?

  • Darth_Gerb

    I’m sure a lot more, are thinking the same.
    Perhaps that price level will be just touched intraday by a daily candle whisker only.

  • AMCabrera

    eur/usd whoa what a spike

  • Joe_Jones

    Yep, highly speculative, just in case the SHTF over the w-e. 

  • Darth_Gerb

    I see it.

    back to 1.236?

  • Joe_Jones

    meh. 

  • Darth_Gerb

    *Market Closed*

  • itslance

    You totally called that one!

  • AMCabrera

    probably just 1.2330 which will be very important.

  • AMCabrera

    nope did not close above 1.2330

  • StrikeFirst

    What I’m realizing is that in order to be a great trader, you must be a great person.

    Don’t like exercising?

    Exercise.

    Don’t like eating your fruits and vegetables?

    Eat your fruits and vegetables.

    Drink too much?

    Stop drinking.

    Smoke too much?

    Stop smoking.

    Never got around to that book you’ve always wanted to write?

    Write the damn book.

    In short, trading is so hard – and yet so exciting and rewarding – because it is a battle against yourself.

    Your trading results won’t change until YOU change.

    THAT is the challenge, and the journey is more fascinating than the destination.

  • AMCabrera

    kadoosh

  • Joe_Jones
  • DarthTrader

    Stuck in Manhole Cover?

    Get unstuck.

  • badflightrisk

    Double top and kiss good buy?  $900 price target by Jefferies… if someone besides the big boys posted that they’d be in jail. 

  • DarthTrader

    Reminds me of this . . .

    “Half may equipment is jammed up in the rear”

    “Unjam em!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et1SkVldiHI&feature=related 

  • AMCabrera

    Kadoosh

  • BobbyLow

    Typical day in the life/death of a Bear.  LOL

    Have a good weekend everybody.  

  • Joe_Jones

    😉 

    Same to you BL

  • StrikeFirst

    Another divergence.

    SPX vs. Australian dollar

  • Darth_Gerb

    Risk at 70.
    No sign of broad-market turn.
    I will have a good weekend. (I was sick last.)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p89755893822 
    -DG

  • newbfxtrader

    I like your favorite indicator. Makes things simple. Keeps me from fighting the tape.

  • newbfxtrader

    Sure but notice the divergence in April too. We may have a few more weeks before the top.

  • Darth_Gerb

    thanks.
    I created it after being crushed by QE2 in Fall 2010.
    This summer’s zigzags really showed it’s faults; it lags, so it shines only in trends for the swing guys.

    for the day-to-day, you need Mole’s Laser gun tools.
    (I may be cheap, but I’m not dumb, I’ve watched the avail videos extensively)

  • newbfxtrader

    Yes I agree but I am trying to be a  trend trader. I cannot change directions daily. Need weekly setups.  I also use COT data to guide me. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p73233598709
    You could have ben long aud/jpy long aud/usd since the june turn and held on you did just fine. Same for /es 

  • Darth_Gerb

    a turtle trader?! my L*rd, be quiet or you’ll get us both banned.
    ;-D

    http://autrasy.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/turtle-trader-dennis-eckhardt-pandiyan.png

  • thepercolator

     Mole,

    Regarding your Macbook Pro if the problem is a “Black Screen” – Graphics Card Failure and its the NVIDIA – GeForce 8600M GT which it is most likely, since you say yours is 2008 (Macbook Pros manufactured from May 2007 to October 2008 contain that graphics card) then you’re in luck and Apple will replace it free of charge.

    http://gizmodo.com/5061605/apple-confirms-failing-nvidia-graphics-cards-in-macbook-pros-offers-free-repairs-and-refunds

    It happened to mine last year and they fixed it for free and its been cool since.

  • Tronacate

    Current positions……l es  s zb l zs s dx s gg

  • AmazingLarry

    Yes, they are very good about the screen issues. The LCD on my GF’s iMac died (known issue), brought it to the Apple store and the had it back up and going under 24 hrs. Didn’t cost her a penny. I was really impressed by those dorks…I mean Geniuses. 

  • AMCabrera

    after hours at 5 pm eur/usd did make it back above 1.2330

  • Joe_Jones

    I bet few rats here have seen this vid yet:  
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNLa93Q_rvM&feature=player_embedded

    Ain’t changing anything anyway, but somebody isn’t telling the truth…for change. [sarcasm off]
    Biggy Bro is pissed though 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • muths

    ‘appetite suppressant for anything remotely vega positive is this little jewel.’   ‘positive’?  you prefer vega negative?