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Perfect Storm
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Perfect Storm

by The MoleJuly 23, 2009

10:18am EDT: I actually had a pretty fun morning thus far – let me show you:

Of course since I drew this chart we’ve busted into 965 – wow – but a major hit to my puts has been averted. If we don’t turn here we might see 975 on the SPX in a short order. Wow, this looks as if we’re getting a 10th up day on the NDX – in the words of George Patton:

NUTS!

10:23pm EDT: Ding Ding Ding Diinnnnnngggg!!! The Dow Jones just touched 9000 for the first time since January 6th. I hate to be right on this one but here we are – 30 more points and we are touching the PPTPL.

BTW, I just added a few more ATM SPY puts.

10:30pm EDT: It seems that my expectation of last night was fulfilled:

Now, as you can see we are starting to run into some resistance here. I forgot to mark the top of Intermediate (4) of Primary {1}, which is also around 9050. Then there’s the old PPTPL which should now act as resistance until it is overcome. Then there is a diagonal which is marked on the chart. And finally, this is the 10th up day on the NDX/COMPQ and I need to ask 2sweeties what the record is on that.

Can we bust a bit higher here? Most likely – greed is a powerful motivator. But the sky is not the limit and I’m pretty sure that the last bears were taken out by this power spike. Who besides Mole is left? 😉

10:46am EDT: Okay, the picture is getting clearer:

I have taken multiples of Minute {1} of A and slapped on a blue comparison fib and then I have taken multiples of Minute {3} of A in orange and projected both fibs from the start of what I think is {5} of A. Based on what I’m seeing we should find ourselves around SPX 975 to 980ish. Which should also roughly line up with the resistance zone I highlighted in the Dow further above.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://twitter.com/g0zer g0zer

    wow. this thing keeps on climbing.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    wow this is straight up insanity

  • gannsecret

    970 could offer some short term Gann resistance
    after that 990

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    When in the hell is XLF going to get off its fat ass and break out..Good god….

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    SO MAD i didnt have my limit buys in on euro. Could be sitting up like 80 pips

    and i closed my short out WAYYY too early last night

  • gusrock1414

    S&P has clawed its way back over 950 which is impressive. One note, W Buffett's “Buy American call” back last October was around this level. Feels like that was ages ago. This bear market rally is determined to punish all bears before it continues its wrath. To Mole's advice, Staying nimble and small is the only way you have been trading if at all. Lester, I hope you are reading this.

  • standard_and_poor

    Good morning brothers and sisters.
    Today could be the turning point I referred to
    yesterday. The point where the market, especially the nasdaq, garners increasing momentum,the 3-4% rally required to get things moving.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix5e1SVLFXw

  • bee01

    Anybody buying this dip? 😉

  • TheKing

    Dang it. It wasn't Patton who said NUTS. It was General Anthony Clement McAuliffe.
    You French …
    (just kidding….)

  • lester

    Mole – how was a major hit to your Puts avoided. Did you sell at open?

  • colonel_bleep

    Gen. Anthony McAuliffe, actually.

  • lester

    I just rebought my Puts with 20% of my capital still 80% to use if I am wrong.

  • Keirsten

    Out of long hedges and watching. G/L Rats!

  • Anonymous

    what a joke, who spread these rumours that we were bear market, and about to take a turn down?

  • Nate

    This is getting crazy . . . but thus is the market. I thought this chart was interesting . . . but who knows at this point . . .

    http://screencast.com/t/HjttmwgX

  • Osso

    Transports higher high….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Mole got to add one more bubble – “DavidDT woke up”,
    was swimming till 3AM working off tension.
    I hope I paid lots of money for upcoming show for a good reason – or I'll be washing dishes in Bermuda making my next trading stake.

  • Osso

    Dow headed to 9088 test….

  • venim

    you added more SPY puts? why the madness?

  • lester

    fuck out

  • onorio

    This is fucking INSANE! 😀

    Cover shorts @ 967 for a 9pts loss….

    Back to forex….

    Short EUR/JPY @ 135.20

  • Scrillhog

    He's probably just hedged, plus a good 15 pts on the ES doesn't hurt.

    I have plenty of puts but am hedged with a long bias… Not enjoying ALL the spoils of this parabolic move but I'm in the green, and I suppose that's what counts.

  • charles_smith

    9034/9063 is the Jan. 09 high for the DJIA, a line in the sand of major resistance. Dow trannies confirming new Dow high, it doesn't get any better than this for the Bulls.

  • salvadorveiga

    Mole I just joined you… 971 SPX here… but staying very very nimble in case we go higher… only risking .5% of capital…

    Am i or am i not a conservative bitch 😛

  • salvadorveiga

    yeah forex is the way to go these days…. have you looked at GBPJPY ? That thing is amazing… shoots up like a rocket, falls down like a rock…

  • standard_and_poor

    Remaining 65% long.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    way to go!

  • stxinon

    I am with you mole..

    I was short OIH and MCO yesterday.
    was blown through OIH
    but MCO is down 5.62% right now…
    I shall short with my limited ability as much as I can….

    there is a bear market always somewhere…

  • Osso

    added SRS 17.00

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • mrclam

    Just loaded the boat with AUG 94 puts, short ES, and shorting NQ at 1590.

  • bsummertime

    ok the last bear has capitulated. time to go short

  • annamall

    Here comes a bunch of Bond auctions top of the hour, also the VIX keeps climbing, so I am watching that closely.

    I still have my SPY puts. I am not backing down here!

  • lester

    the end is near

  • Keirsten

    My thought bubble and I just said this to Mole- what it feel like to be a bear today is what it felt like to be a bull on March 9th. Blood in the streets, not knowing where or when the abyss would end.

    I just held my nose and added to my shorts here. Still plenty of dry powder to scalp/hedge if needed. They just got their DOW 9000, but more importantly they got a clean 300 points off the bottom.

  • Scrillhog

    I've noticed a few things over the past 2 weeks:

    When I'm trading futures based on what I see using moving averages I see impressive gains.

    Then when I look at all the equities and puts I have based on my bearish bias I see lots of red.

    Luckily I've been hedged with long bias and am still in the green, but really missing out on potential gains had I not let my bias skew my trading. My indicators still had not given a confirmed signal to load up on puts, yet my head made me do it anyway for fear of missing any downside.

    Bottom line: trade what you see. When TA breaks down use what works for you at the moment.

  • annamall

    Sal, there is no way you can be a bitch!! You look too manly!! hahahah G/L

  • divergence

    Crude growing a woody…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    may the power of schwartz be with us

  • gndill

    VIX is green $TICK is clicking red

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    $ moving up, VIX green

  • molecool

    “they got a clean 300 points off the bottom on SPX”

    Aaah – I didn't pick up on that – nice! At least someone else has a brain around here? How come the girls keep kicking your asses on a regular basis, gentlemen? 😉

  • Lordted

    Dead right Mole.. 9000 first touch = Short the bugger

  • anotherone

    I'm looking at the SPY hourly chart and this has got to be a blow off top.Volume so far this hour is 45 million, which is close to what the max final hour volume has been historically. Price has also blasted through the upper boundary of a channel that has contained price for a week. If the rest of the day follows suit, this could be the blow off that consumes all the remaining buyers.

    BTW, I bought 5 Sep SPY puts this morning and I'm obviously underwater on them. Hanging on to them though.

  • Osso

    they havent take the 9088 Dow level..yet

  • Scrillhog

    And we know how much those guys love numbers in multiples of 3…. 666, 9000, 300…. 13 days straight up? Next stop 999 or DOW 9999?

  • annamall

    If the Bond auctions go well, then watch out for more upside. just sayin….11am

  • Guest

    I put on some Dec SPY puts about 30 minutes ago. I’m having chest pains and just took a valium. It’s painful to piss into the wind.

  • salvadorveiga

    someone hold my hand… lool ! Serious now this thing is steeper than March's rally… this has got to be the last zig zag of the rally… it smells so much of blow off top…

    I mean for the last 1 week and a half a lot of bears have turned bullish, on forums i've seen a lot of people declaring bull markets confirmed, even the ones that were bearish a few weeks ago… now they all seem convinced bull is here…

    once all bears capitulate ( apart from me, ahem…) we can drop like it's hot 😀

  • divergence

    Why is is that Natty is the only thing to trade on fundamentals? No fair. No fair.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Patterns, patterns, patterns:

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/patterns-pat

  • gannsecret

    Someone asked me why they are all whining?
    The real bottom line to all this is the lack of flexability
    these perma bears and bulls have towards the market.
    Unless you are a long term trader, have your positions totally paid for and no option
    positions AND have great patience for your position to play out then sit back and wait and stop whining. If you are a shorter term trader then you need to be more flexable and not be married to long term “philosophy” A long term market mindset is DEATH to a short term trader.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    out of interest..what if dollar collapses? Mkts go up even more? or would a collapse change the game?

  • poopsquad

    Anyone else just get hookwinked big by the Zero lite ? That change in the last 5 mins had to be bad data. F*CK

  • bist

    The gap should serve as support for nasdaq now. I don't think the bulls would recapture 9000 only to give it up the same day. I'm long via spy 98 calls. I also picked up a few calls on all the lagging stocks lvs, drys, ldk, c, bac. If this rally is real I expect all the laggards to pick up soon. I still have my doubts because xlf and oil were lagging earlier on, it's just starting to pick up. WFC is unchanged throughout… weird

  • wex

    Mole,
    ” Nuts” was a quote of Gen. McAulliffe of the 101st Airborne at Bastogne where they were isolated. Patton rescued them some days afterward although you could never get a member of the 101st to admit they ever needed rescuing.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Yes, markets would ironically sky rocket. It's counter intuitive but that's the way markets work.

  • lester

    the MACD on the 5 min SPY looks like this could push higher. Waiting for a short opportunity. Short at 96.8 was a bust, I thought we had topped then

  • itsgold

    $SPX 1000 or bust!

  • pricey

    666 is 999 upside down

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    $TRAN – 3544 is lower boundary of the Great Bull channel… wouldn't be surprised to see some overthrow in a fit of euphoria… this appears to be 3 of 5 of A by my count…

    http://tinyurl.com/cd8rmt

  • ropey

    interestingly the ones in china and india haven't according to bloomberg – weird eh?

  • annamall

    Careful Les!!! The bulls are firmly in charge and we may keep pushing to 985 today (or higher?)

  • lester

    anyone know what the most the SPX has gone up in one day is?? How high can we go today? I need a target to enter some shorts…

  • anthem

    absolutely stunning. Stopped out earlier at 962 and sat out the last 2 hour move. I'm going to dip back in at 972 and see if we're near a top. .. A lot of people calling for SPX 1000, I don't think this one is going to get there. The more capitulation the better the position. I might be joining some people on the sidelines if this keeps going though.

  • lester

    is that a serious target, maybe I should go long after all

  • lester

    is that a serious target, maybe I should go long after all

  • zenith191

    This is starting to feel like 2007 again when the housing market was falling apart but the stock market kept barrelling higher. The more exuburant market participants get the more bearish I become. The question is will my puts expire before the market shakes off its irrational behavior.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    Perfect chart for the perfect storm Mole. Sure looks like a long-term inverted H&S playing out. Pretty convincing breach of the neckline and as always you drew the perfect support level it will test at that neckline. Not the prettiest RS but nice time symmetry. With the volume so low and the shenanigans pumping the tape I believe we will near exactly follow your chart through September. Those dickwads want this as high as possible before the volume comes back. Exact same chart exists for SPX of course with an 1100 target end of September if successful. I'm just sitting on my hands for a while at this point.

  • annamall

    Careful those of you still short. There could be an extra squeeze coming up!

  • chilling

    Bought Sep $10 call on FXP for $1.00 for an IT trade. bank or bust!

  • anthem

    uh, we aren't even close to it. I don't have that data, but I seem to remember 40-50 points. Also, we're only at 2%. We've done much greater percentages before as well.

  • annamall

    yes it is! this thing is going till it wants to stop, greed is the driver here!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • anthem

    I think they squeezed out all the juice. There is only pulp left. . .

    I just re-entered at 972. call me suicidal. . ..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    OoooKey
    If that crap is not going TODAY – I am shaving my beard!
    and may be I will call medevac to take away what is left of me

  • lester

    did I see a post that you had sold your SPY Puts?

  • annamall

    G/L Anthem. I am out of puts and in calls. (very small) about an hour ago and made allot of my loss back.

    Weird VIX is up in this tape. :)))

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    got out of my longs from this morning for the biggest gain Ive made in the last 5 months in a span of 2 hours. I am a bear but I rode this bear-rape tape up today, however with Mole's analysis and your comments I am exiting out of longs now.

    Not adding shorts yet though, Id rather not try to catch any drop at tje top, bulls are in control and anything can happen.

  • C C Rider

    Closed DIG. Riding SRS like a cowboy! Hard and lotsa spurs!

  • annamall

    Yes you did, I dumped them about an hour ago when we had a pullback (if you can call it that) and bought small position in calls. (covered 1/2 my loss already) there are too many bears left.

  • lester

    you must be short SRS

  • annamall

    Good for you Candle!!! :)))

  • lester

    pullback LOL I think that is when I re-entered cuz I thought the top was in….

  • string01

    Ouchy… mummy me bum 'urts.

  • rhae

    SPY daily ARC chart (July 18) target hit …. any higher close and it goes into the shit can..
    http://www.screencast.com/t/Kt9FZguDFT

  • disrespekt

    Dunno…all i keep hearin is how we “can't” go much higher yet here we are, day after freakin day of this bullshit. Daily RSI has crossed 70 now.

  • annamall

    yea in this tape that was a way to get out of puts and get into calls.

  • Scrillhog

    LVS lagging? Have you not seen the 50% move it's had since the 14th?

  • annamall

    Keep in mind if MSFT and AMZN beat and they roar up, god watch out tomorrow. We may be @ 1000 by tomorrow. I heard there is enough bears out there still to get us up to that easily.

  • disrespekt

    agree…this looks like a classic bull tape where you go long anywhere and bank. Pure momo to the upside.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    thanks, I still havent recovered all of my losses yet though!

    Looks like we are at a resistance point here around the spx 974-975 area

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    if that is true that pain is always strongest before the turn – my pain-o-meter hitting limiter now.
    All we need is survive today, I did say yesterday – “we need higher close” – I just could not expect the crap of this magnitude.
    I bet any leftover trapped bears are lining up in front of “sell button” trying to hit it ASAP – I am doing what I have not done in ages – piling in on a short side ON MARGIN – will call it quit on Monday if nothing going to change

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    try to breathe :)

  • Osso

    Dow 9088 is Transports 3737.01….

  • disrespekt

    I have most of my IRAs positioned defensively in gov't bond funds…lol…those are up too. There is literally nothing that is down except the USD mildly.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Mammy – I am sooo cold…what is that???
    Crap – it is Daddy!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    AIG is down lol

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Long amzn at 93.30

  • annamall

    I got long when we were (only (scarcastically said) about 140. Should we break 975 then 985 next stop. :)))

  • itsgold

    Does the volume on the AUG SPY 80 Puts mean anything?

  • lester

    bought 3 AMZN Sep 95 Calls, hopeing for rally into close. I will not hold thru earnings

  • annamall

    it looks like it means allot of people are WRONG!! hehehe that means allot of bears left to cover. :)

  • annamall

    Don't hold them into earnings or you will get a huge crush! Even towards the close they start pulling out the IV (MM's jerks) :)

  • lester

    you know what really burns me, I never have the guts to hold calls overnight, but I have held Puts overnight many times and lost every time (like last nite). Maybe I will take a small overnite hold on some QQQQ Calls

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    looks like we just did!

  • Duuuuuude

    My guess is that a lot of the buying now are shorts exiting positions. That is what helps create the blow off top.

  • annamall

    I thought it looked like more consolidation for another squeeze up, next stop 985 SPX.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I am getting ready to short /NQ

  • lester

    What time of day is best to sell?

  • ropey

    CME weak in this tape, nibbling on some ST puts for another move to 260s..possible for a back test and run to 300 or so but will jump if it looks like more strength coming in..

  • Keirsten

    Could just be cheap insurance buying. Probably why the VIX isn't getting slammed in all of this.

  • bist

    True, but 50% moves are pretty common with lvs and if we take off over 1000 I doubt lvs will be sitting at 10

  • phantomflash

    From an Email sent last night by theagiletrader.com: “The NDX is up for the 11th consecutive session today. The last time that happened? January 1992, which was 17 ½ years ago.”

    I counted and yes, yesterday was the 11th consecutive up close for the NDX.

  • disrespekt

    $205B in UST auctions coming up next week…wow

  • playtowin

    However I also saw someone say that every time the nasdaq was on a streak like this it continued!

  • playtowin

    A lot of the European markets now up 9 straight sessions.

  • Bankrupt

    oh don't worry, uncle Ben will take care of that

  • springheel_jack

    Likewise. Very surprised to see us get here without a significant pullback.

    We could test 1000 SPX tomorrow IMO.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup,
    I have a very thick skin and now I have the same feeling I had when I went 100% net long on March 2nd.
    http://trading-to-win.com/ExamplePort.aspx
    Sit and wait now

  • mmTesla

    It doesn't work like that..

  • Osso

    XLF still below 13.08.

  • lester

    Not sure what to make of the action on the SPY 5 min MACD. It is positive but has been declining fairly steeply since 11:10. This divergence could indicate a rollover, but I have sometimes seen this type of action preced a push higher.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    few more minutes, most likely on test of 1600

  • ropey

    out – going to wait till end of the day could get back to 280..

  • Bankrupt

    any bull out there capitulating?

  • Bankrupt

    meaning what?

  • BigIslandLife

    David DT go visit SOH tim needs you and made comment maybe it will roll over if you post there I guess, Aloha

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    VIX keeps rising

  • Osso

    it has to break it…to confirm move up…imo.
    Same Dow 9088, Tran. 3737.01, IYT 65.90.

  • Keirsten

    Indicators are a moot point on a trending day like this Lester- just watch the price and time and toss the rest out of your window. These indicators can stay in hovercraft mode all day long and never come down. The only thing you need to watch for is a change in trend- nothing more. A lower low, a lower high, etc. Trade it simple.

  • disrespekt

    at least i own gold and have ira money in miners…because my trading acct is getting F#CKED waiting for technical indicators to meanadamnedthing

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    just went very, very long FAZ

  • itsgold

    I think you should look into buying puts on the Ultrashort ETFs instead.

  • lester

    I am actually thinking of buying some Calls on this little pullback. Stop me before I do something stupid…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • Osso

    going into SRS at S3 16.50…..for 3rd. position.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    i think the $BKX is showing the way, will cover if the BKX exceeds 37.15, but it has retraced 61% of its move down and is at resistance at the top of its channel

  • disrespekt

    Lester, first off, you've got to recognize this tape. This tape has happened before many times. As of late, it is HIGHLY improbable that we are going to see a major reversal on a tape like this. It's more likely that we will continue to ramp up and have a blowout close. Not saying that one or the other will happen by any means, it's just that you've got to identify this tape pattern.

    This market has been shrugging off TA indicators, fibs, and everything else for the past 2 weeks. If you're looking to scalp then you're going to need a good bit more agility than you probably have at this point. Your best bet is not to front-run this as some others are, but to wait for some kind of confirmation.

  • Osso

    vix HOD

  • BigIslandLife

    David ck my post below

  • itsgold

    You can limit your risk by not trading everyday.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    2 question:
    1. Who is Tim?
    2. Is that sarcastic comment?
    3. You are not long after today, are you?
    well I am not good with math – I guess that were 3 questions :)

  • Modab

    The only way your indicators will not be valid is if we are in a true uptrending day….

    FWIW, I went short a max lev position in the /ES at 971.50 with a stop at 976….

  • amokta

    is this time to go long?

  • Lordted

    S T O P

    Listen to something beautiful intead. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJzcF0v1eOE&feat

  • lester
  • disrespekt

    LOL…indicators are on TILT, man. I am like you, looking at fundamental economic indicators to see if there is “confirmation” of this move, looking at IYR, various banks, XLF, etc. Earnings aren't confirming, UE isn't confirming, rail traffic, PMI…there's nothing confirming anything.

    Yet the SPY keeps grinding higher and higher, laughing at longer-term RSIs of almost 90. There's a very real possibility that we could be facing a year-long rally like has occurred several times in the Nikkei since they hit their peak.

    From a longer term EW perspective, we clearly are in a corrective wave for the initial plunge from 2007 which took 1.5 years.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    HA-HA-HA
    he's got good memory and low self esteem :)
    And YES – his timing sucks

  • Osso

    may be shorting FCX at 60….

  • Bankrupt

    if you are a bear I think the top is really there

  • annamall

    I couldn't agree more, there are still allot of bears out there left to cover. :))

  • da_bear

    I've been in the green putting on BULL suit since SPY 910.

    /blahh.. i don't like it.

    *pockets money*

  • itsgold

    Going long.. real long. However, I'm waiting for a small pullback before reentering. I think we're going to rocket past 1000 and the ultrashort ETF's are going to crash.

  • BigIslandLife

    TK you should now him I think
    not sure he referenced you if same name not sure
    yes still long and getting ready to add short hedge today and stops on longs
    ps like your charts and post and follow you here on es

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    feels like one more push to the upside coming

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    if I would use IBD's tactics in the bear market, God's honest truth is – I'd be going/staying long too…
    but.. – it is NOT bull market, no matter what talking heads want you to think.

  • BigIslandLife

    Ok guess you found it LOL just keeping you in the loop not my concern you seem to trade both sides as do I, Aloha

  • lester

    I am going long SPY if HOD is taken out, this is pure fucking momentum trading

  • biffermas

    That kind of leverage would classify me with AIG and the Federal Reserve. A small put position is fine with me.

  • salvadorveiga

    Hey Mole no need for 2sweeties… Latin boy to the rescue…

    Here's an historical of up streak days, gains until peak and the decline that followed…

    http://economico.sapo.pt/forumbolsa/index.php?a

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup, there is no bear side and no bull side – just the right side and the wrong side

  • KidDisco

    Why is the VIX up but VXX down?

  • annamall

    I hate to say this but this tape is not going to go down today much. probably tomorrow either. All the bulls can hear is home sales up 3.2% (which is better) and with all the bears left they need to shake out the rest.
    Plenty of room to go.

  • annamall

    Corruption in NJ!!! Who would have guessed??? I am shocked shocked. 😉 (I am from Jersy)
    selling black market organs

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    let me stress it again
    do not be long unless daily sell signals will have their RISK LEVEL (take highest bar of last nine days, take it absolute range, add to highest bar – you get RISK LEVEL) is violated.

    Good luck

  • Squidman

    Hey pretty lady. Beautiful day in the neighborhood!

  • GDII

    i thot u wld say winning side and losing side

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    People need to learn from this experience. There were so many signs that this was more than just a corrective bounce, especially after the 9-to-1 signal. That was the last nail in the coffin for me.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/reflection.html

  • ropey

    Any takers on the amazon and mr softy double-punch? Feels too good to be true …..but amazon does have a chunky short position still..having said that the PE is crazy and UPS sold off on earnings ( amazon apparently uses ups? )…

  • rhae

    Got stopped out of QID early… I may get back in when intraday slopes turn around…
    QID 3m http://www.screencast.com/t/Kt9FZguDFT

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    Until the correlation between Euro and SPX ceases, this circus will continue. It is easy to manipulate, just buy the Euro! http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/2009/07/eur

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Incidentally, a correction is definitely coming but we've got 1-2 more weeks of relative buoyancy/rally before that happens. Should get a pullback early next week, with more rally.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Yes and no. The EUR/JPY pair lost its correlation for a bit a few days ago, but seems to have found it again.

  • K.I.M.

    Sound like playing roulette. Betting on red while getting nine blacks in the row. And don't forget the joker (motorhead included).

  • K.I.M.

    Sound like playing roulette. Betting on red while getting nine blacks in the row. And don't forget the joker (motorhead included).

  • standard_and_poor

    NEW EVIL SPECULATOR FEATURE################

    News Flash, A Katzo07 update:

    Sneak preview of tonight's Letterman show with Katzo07.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvQScRuZj9s

  • lester

    keep puching, I need my buy signal

  • annamall

    Good for you Da_Bear!! :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    took off lst long position (VLO calls)
    opened substantial RTH Sep puts position
    http://screencast.com/t/cnNPGKlK

    it is make it or break it from now on

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Euro has only moved like 100 pips and SPX has broken through huge resistance and made new highs…. i would have expected eur to be much higher

  • annamall

    I have sucked this earning season, so no Ropey! :)

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Entering short positions now…. slowly.

    hourly RSI almost overbought.

  • Keirsten

    Hiya Squiddy! You still watching that insane 2 D? 😉

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    my timeframe for this trade is not intraday, but days and weeks may be.
    and I totally agree with you – ecstasy does not go away easy – somethimes people need OD to come back to the senses.

  • C C Rider

    Being short is the easy trade! I called 975 earlier. To be honest, the hard trade is still to be long, which means we go higher. 985 and 1007 are your next targets. May have to retest 968.75 first.

  • gndill

    I'll take SRS long at 16.62 for a daytrade.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    sadly I was asleep and didnt catch the peak, but that shit happens i guess

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Precisely. Hard trade for past couple of days is not only being long, but also NOT shorting – which is a 'trade' of sorts.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yeah, that was me TK referred too
    He banned me from his blog after that day, thou publicly stated that he “did not do that 'cause he is the fairest of 'em all”
    OK, enough of BS – back to making money (eh..trying not to lose too much money on the “hard trade”)

  • Squidman

    Of course, although today I'm just watching the up volume to keep me on the trend. Perhaps another push coming, squeeeezzzzeee.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Ok that was by far the longest bull dick I've ever seen.

  • http://www.cafes.net poisonfrog

    CIT has had days recently where more shares than existed were traded. Is this overshorting? What do you think is going on? I think this bankruptcy talk is a bluff to get its bond prices down. Plan A : Ask the govt for bailout. Plan B: Ask govt again. Plan C: Scare bondholders Thoughts?

  • Duuuuuude

    Things will change as soon as I speak, but internals continue to lift. I see no pull back in sight.

  • C C Rider

    Dead man walking! LOL!!

  • annamall

    that's hysterical!!! hahahah

  • http://www.cafes.net poisonfrog

    Because this is an earnings (and euphoria and short covering) driven rally, not a currency one so much.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    naked shorting obviously

  • annamall

    I think your'e right on the latter. Once the GS boyas come back from eating, drinking and smoking god knows what they are going to push the blast off button to flush out some more bears.

  • Keirsten

    Yep, they're squeezing the lifeblood out of it today. Glad you're doing well over there! 😉

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    If you listen closely you can hear the mouthbreathers beginning to chant: “Round Number, Round Number, Round Number!” Now that we're this close to their favorite round number of all time (SPX 1000), I don't know if they can resist the temptation.

  • bearmaid

    Hope this is not a double post:

    Although the U.S. equity market has had an impressive run since the July 7th lows, what many investors might find less-than-reassuring is how narrow the advance has been.

    In the Nasdaq-100 index, for example, one stock, Apple, accounts for nearly one-fifth of the 11-percent gain. It has also pulled much more than its already hefty weight in the index. Otherwise, just nine stocks are responsible for more than half the move in the technology-laden bellwether.

    While that doesn’t mean the rally can’t carry on, it’s another reason to be cautious on reading too much into the advance we’ve seen so far.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Euro not confirming the highs, VIX up 2%

    things are getting dicey

  • KidDisco

    I've been staring at the TRIN which has been moving up.
    I thought this was supposed to be bearish.

    Can you help me understand this?

  • lester

    went long at SPY 97.75

  • Duuuuuude

    Sorry, but no. I use market breadth, advance/decline and tick, but not the TRIN. No reason why not…I just have not added it. Probably should.

  • BigIslandLife

    NDX just shy of 200 ma, might reverse here 50 day waaaay below

  • annamall

    Just bought a MSFT 25 call (Low IV) and did an Amzn Aug 100/105 spread for 1.21

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    AH NOOOOOO

    dont be the contrarian indicator brother!!!!!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • Duuuuuude

    This is my little control panel. http://screencast.com/t/MWPXxHsfUP

  • BigIslandLife

    ohoh hope you right, I am thinking short up here need oxygen ready to faint LOl

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • C C Rider

    You know how to roll, Ms. Chameleon! I think Softie could surprise. I know I contributed this past quarter.

  • molecool

    Why the fuck you think I keep him around? 😉

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    nice move. youre up

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    /nq short filled 1600.75, stop 1603.25

  • annamall

    hehehe. Yes, I try and do what the tape tells me and not what I want to see, I say we hit at least 985 today. (your calltoo) :)

  • Fujisan

    I have to wait for the close to get the volume confirmation, but this is what I see.

    1. If SPX closes above the previous high (956) with lighter volume, it will go up to the next swing point of 1007.
    2. If SPX closes above the previous high (956) with heavy volume, this is a confirmation of abc structure and there will be 85% probability that it will complete a=c structure with a final destination of 1162.

  • onorio

    Top must be near….

    As a permabear im thinking we`re in a new bull market.

  • lester

    maybe you should pay me for the service I offer…or at least comp me a Geronimo subscription

  • C C Rider

    That would indeed be a low risk short op. I may have to short at 985. Thin air and all.

  • springheel_jack

    I hate to depress bears further, but unless we drop considerably from here, we are going to have the Dow & $TRAN both closing at new highs today, which will give us a clear dow theory buy signal.

    If 73 is really the target low from the double-top on USD, a rise to SPX 1100 in the next few weeks is very much on the cards.

    There should be a couple of dips on the way though. I was expecting one today but…….

  • Lordted

    Don't know how you pick your Trades Lester but try looking at bigger time scalesas well for confirmation.. 10 mins or 30 or 1 hr.

  • LostIllini

    No shorts + profit taking (if you don't take your profit in Abercrombie (for example), whose sales are down 33% you ARE a fool) = NO Bulltard fuel. It will be interesting if there are enough retail buyers to purchase all the bags the GS boys are going to sell (and you thought Coach was good ;o) )

  • onorio

    Hey Fuji!

    After be fucked by the bulls 3 times this week, i will do the same…wait for the retrace to go long…if we get a retrace.

    Playing currencies rigth now…im short EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY

  • LostIllini

    New bull market starts when top line is breached, but I feel your pain…. got any ky and a towel?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • Bankrupt

    well at least now we are seriously trying to breach that 973 resistance. And EURUSD weakening.

    BLOOD!

  • kinihepu

    New highs finally breaking out. Market will never go down again.

    Personally, I think something is up. Somebody knows something really big, that the rest of us don't know. When the news comes out down goes the market. Until that news is out, bulls win, bears lose.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that was a very nice, hell, no, GREAT RIDE you had
    congrats!

  • Lordted

    Volume is low so far (by my charts) but I don't have any means of checking it…

  • mmTesla

    QQQQ Aug 39 PUTs look nice

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I think he must run his indicators off the 10 second chart or something

  • Fujisan

    Good for you! No need to fight the tape.

    I see a little bit more upside on EUR/JPY – do you see a short opportunity?

  • bearmaid

    Excerpts from Alan Newmans Cross Currents:

    May we remind you that on the other side of each and every short sale, there MUST be a buyer. Even if you sell short what you do not own or borrow, someone is buying shares that you sell. In the case of General Electric (GE), the company has authorized the issuance of 10,5 billion shares. Somehow, large block owners own 11,9 billion shares, 12,3% more than are authorized to trade. Where did the extra shares come from? Short sales.

    For kicks, we did a Google search for “most heavily shorted stocks” and amongst the 52 million results found a list of ten stocks from 2003. … Several of the group are now extinct but the ones still extant are typically so incredibly over owned even today, that we can only wonder how anyone can trust the stock market. Take Cheesecake Factory and Molex Corp. for instance, each of which have at least 60% more stock owned by large block owners than the companies have issued.

    Five companies has had large block owners of more than DOUBLE the authorized shares issued.

    The worst offense to shareholders was PNRA, which has 29.5 million shares outstanding but somehow has large block owners of 69.5 million shares.
    http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

  • bearmaid

    Excerpts from Alan Newmans Cross Currents:

    May we remind you that on the other side of each and every short sale, there MUST be a buyer. Even if you sell short what you do not own or borrow, someone is buying shares that you sell. In the case of General Electric (GE), the company has authorized the issuance of 10,5 billion shares. Somehow, large block owners own 11,9 billion shares, 12,3% more than are authorized to trade. Where did the extra shares come from? Short sales.

    For kicks, we did a Google search for “most heavily shorted stocks” and amongst the 52 million results found a list of ten stocks from 2003. … Several of the group are now extinct but the ones still extant are typically so incredibly over owned even today, that we can only wonder how anyone can trust the stock market. Take Cheesecake Factory and Molex Corp. for instance, each of which have at least 60% more stock owned by large block owners than the companies have issued.

    Five companies has had large block owners of more than DOUBLE the authorized shares issued.

    The worst offense to shareholders was PNRA, which has 29.5 million shares outstanding but somehow has large block owners of 69.5 million shares.
    http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

  • lilme

    Yeah, right, get him over to futures, what is the leverage there – it will be a fast exit just after an explosion of questions.

    Lester, are you sure?

    Warren Buffett says he stays within his area of competence. Just an idea!

  • lilme

    Yeah, right, get him over to futures, what is the leverage there – it will be a fast exit just after an explosion of questions.

    Lester, are you sure?

    Warren Buffett says he stays within his area of competence. Just an idea!

  • Osso

    Seems the GS,Fed maffia cannot control the Baltic Dry Index…shippers really not moving.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    some SERIOUS bids up on /es though… gonna be hard to break that

  • annamall

    Domo arigato Fujisan! Good info

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Another push up coming soon on EUR/USD… just fyi

  • Fujisan

    Mine too – I don't think it will bust it with a high volume – by all means, it is headed to 1000.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Castro is dead and they want to get someone from US to replace him?

  • Fujisan

    You are welcome, sweetie!

  • C C Rider

    Thx. Lotta whipsaw, but worth the perseverance. 980 was always my target, but I may take the money and run! A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

    I'll be looking to short small pos from these levels.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    strong intraday move is coming..me thinks

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I think we've breached about 50 “top lines” since May

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • ropey

    why not call yourself da bull then? :) lol

  • Squidman

    I had an inkling GBP/JPY was headed to R2, maybe short it there tonight.

  • OldManRiver

    Hope it's the one presented in your recent video. If you're right, then “Spa Ciba” (don't know Russian but you sure sound like a bear to me).

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just to remind where short trade “risk level (stop) is on SPX – we are awfully close
    http://screencast.com/t/4pxXzZAQy

  • Lordted

    If the SPX drops to 955 – 960 area it will be old resistance. That will do me. I am short ES

  • Fujisan

    I would rather wait for a pullback to PP and then go long.

  • annamall

    Are you a quasi bull now??? hehehehe

  • funkypenguin

    BDI is down but the shippers are up – SEA up 3.72%

    Could be an interesting arbitrage/pair trade between these two but I haven't done an analysis of that

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the truth is – we may anticipate, calculate, argue, hope, fight – and market might put us in the meat grinder at any time – mass perception is not always what reality should be.

  • annamall

    Trade Alert looks like Mr. Softie is breaking out.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    me am uga booga bear at this point – as bear as its ever gets.
    I might change to uga mooga bull only if SPX will close this week above 981.13

  • KidDisco

    Surely there will be profit taking?…

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    to which side?

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Having been healthily short the mkt since late JUN, I'm beginning to capitulate: http://tinyurl.com/mp6xa6

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    :(

    thats never fun man.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    judging by the insane buy side volume on /es i dont think there will be

  • Fujisan

    EUR/USD is sitting right below the multi month-long triangle resistence level. Once it breaks above it, it will be a huge pop!

  • ennuigo

    Michael Jackson was really Mickey Mouse?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that yellow circle was my target for 2 months now, just did not expect such a parabolic move
    http://screencast.com/t/tYNZleaXv

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • innatedc

    This is all going to get very ugly soon enough…..denninger's latest is interesting.

  • annamall

    heheheh cute a gua booga bear huh? when you go bullish I know a turn is coming. :)))

  • ropey

    it's at the 50% retrace 25.61 now…

  • gndill

    Fractals at work in TA charts… a rising wedge within a rising wedge within a rising wedge.

  • Fujisan

    One day pop, 5 days retracement?

  • annamall

    Freaking fat Cow Maria C Cabrerra calling bloggers moronic again. What a numskull!

    She is an obnoxious snot.

  • annamall

    AMZN and everything else taking off.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    holy crap – stopped from /nq short
    on a positive note – may be it is better to get over all the nonsense in on day..eh in 13 days
    I am getting mad now, market better go down…or I'll be washing dishes for a living

  • OldManRiver

    Blue Pill Or Red Pill

    Morhpeus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

    h/t Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    gee – I sent similar email to CNBC to be passed to Kneale

  • divergence

    Oh, I know it, she is loud and annoying.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    unfortunately he is a bad short term trader

  • annamall

    Isn't she! :)

  • annamall

    Isn't she! :)

  • annamall

    I sent a few on him!!! LOL hehehe

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    weekly close above 981.13 :))
    Damn, at least I am getting appreciated as a real contrarian now :)

  • annamall

    Are you doing anything for earnings Ropey? I have on a August 25 Call

  • Squidman

    Of course, much better idea! Naturally bearish I guess.

  • annamall

    anyone follow SNP look @ the BB on the 15 min. very narrow for a big move coming..

  • Osso

    9088 tested once….

  • Duuuuuude

    Well, you have to give them their due. When you call a bottom, then call a bottom, then call a bottom, then call another bottom…..and it finally goes up, I suppose they probably feel vindicated against themselves more than against the bloggers. They have really appeard ridiculous the last two years. They had to be right eventually I suppose. The funny thing is that by year end, they are going to look ridiculous again.

  • Osso

    In BGZ 28.42

  • gndill

    For those that may be popping some controlled substances today… Xanax is better than Vicodin. Xanax lets you contine to make rational decisions without stressing over your current account drawdown. Vicodin just makes you ignore everything and random decisions are the result.

    Whichever one you take, do so with a shot of Maker's Mark 😉

  • gndill

    Should be good for a $.50 cent move before a pullback… after that, who knows.

    http://i30.tinypic.com/1etjew.jpg

  • Osso

    January 6
    Dow high 9088.06
    Dow close 9015.10
    Vol.: 905.1M

  • dollar

    Repost: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYEYbmgp0bY
    Keep watching, alcohol and crack seem to be the best

  • ropey

    boo did you sell before the close? i closed out my calls when i saw some weakness in the spy/nas going into the close..

  • ropey

    boo did you sell before the close? i closed out my calls when i saw some weakness in the spy/nas going into the close..