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Pick Your Poison
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Pick Your Poison

by The MoleJanuary 6, 2015

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-01-06_USDMXN_briefing

Pretty quiet out there – crude, cable, and Euro even lower (didn’t I tell you to wait?) but no big moves overnight. The Mexican peso may be a ST setup as it’s back at the 25-hour SMA plus there’s a NLSL at 14.935.  If you want to be long try to grab an entry near that with a stop below 14.92. Time for the SMA to offer support and carry it higher.

2015-01-06_NQ_briefing

Equities – the one setup I see this morning would be on the NQ as it’s offering us a correlated NLSL and 25-hour SMA. Be long above 4170 and short below 4165 – plus/minus. I actually like this one, the only fly in my ointment is this:

2015-01-06_events

Quite a lot of event risk, especially tomorrow, and that’s been the game we’ve had to endure almost every month now. Price gets pushed toward a technical inflection point right before the FOMC meeting and then takes off like gang busters, not without shaking out a bunch of stops in either direction. Very tricky to get a seat on the bus.

So this is what I’m proposing:

  1. Don’t force it and make sure you get the entry you want.
  2. Get positioned today. Forget about grabbing an entry on EUR or USD pairs tomorrow – same goes for equities. Today’s the day to pick your poison.
  3. The trading range in equities is probably going to be pretty contained today (no promises but these are the odds). Place your stop a reasonable distance away but you can be a bit tighter today. NOT tomorrow.

The idea here is to get in early – which has low odds of happening but is your best play in tape expecting sudden volatility jumps. Watch the Zero today for early signs of accumulation – divergences and rate of participation is what you should look out for.

Now there are two charts which you MUST watch like a hawk – and they’re already offering a hint of what market makers may be up to right now. Please meet me in the lair…

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks,

    Crude and Energy Companies down again and all I can say is wow. :) I’m expecting some give back today but it doesn’t matter what I expect.

    Got stopped on my AUD/USD Short for a loss last night and hit the target on my Short GBP/JPY this morning. Have since re-entered Short on GBP/JPY.

  • Dyellowflash

    currently long due to my system’s signals… though i dont really like it.

  • Billabong

    CL can continue on in trend direction longer than a rational person has patience.

  • Dyellowflash

    I think we cant go below ES2010 for it to be valid.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s OK with me. :)

    BTW, I totally agree with you about what you said regarding small positions vs. betting the farm in this case. By the time I got in, the delta on SCO was already very large so a smaller than normal sized position was in order and yet it still kicked ass. I have a “normal” size position in DUG because I finally got in sync with the last sell signal.

    At some point, UCO and DIG might be a hell of a buy but I can wait.

  • Darkthirty

    Looks like stop sweeps………

  • Dyellowflash

    TP-ed one third for 10pts, left 2/3 now 5 pts in the green. I went long most SnP which r doing well and Dow is good, but NQ is barely breakeven – weak.

  • Darkthirty

    short scalp from 2022, catching turns, but not chasing if I miss….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    very good.

    Livermore-

    21. Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

  • Dyellowflash

    Good Short! Long Dow 17480, added my origninally TP-ed 1/3 back at 20 pts lower. Its going to my SL soon, so could turn up to be a breakeven day more or less.

  • Darkthirty

    Livermore…..nevermore

  • Darkthirty

    looking at a 5th wave down, hence the target. don’t trust this bitch enough to do anything but scalp

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    How ya’doin?

    I see you survived the pullmeover Edna.

  • Darkthirty

    getting too old for firefighting…..gotta give it up. The adrenaline rush is a blast though. Still sick but my O2 sat is up

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I bet it is.
    My uncle was a firefighter. 25yrs.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTwgbwYTWdQ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    HL moving up.
    bumped it’s head on the red, let’s see about the blue.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40173540324

  • Darkthirty

    Got 27 in, Indiana pensions are weak

  • Dyellowflash

    Do u want to TP some so that the mkt can move up?

  • Darkthirty

    It aint me I aint no senators son! give me an e mail address, got something that’ll work for you

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I hope it’s funded. Apparently municipals out there have funds with I.O.U’s inside.

    http://www.timeswv.com/news/article_01e29819-3de6-5e68-9b29-45e50d61012d.html?mode=jqm

  • BobbyLow

    My job in the Air Force back in the 60’s was sitting in an O11A Crash Fire Truck for 3 Hours at a time just like this one praying that nothing happened on my shift. :)

    This is a picture of what my truck looked like as ancient as it is. Mine was called “Smokey 5”.

  • BobbyLow

    Target #2 hit on GBP/JPY. Did I ever tell you guys how much I love this pair. :)

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like the fecal matter is hitting the fan.

  • ridingwaves

    there is that 2000spx, I think I’ll start dipping in for longs…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Skynard, is that you?

  • BobbyLow

    Haven’t seen Skynard around. Hopefully he’s just taking an extended holiday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Gold, 5min
    Boo-Ya!

  • BobbyLow

    And free oil on the horizon! What’s not to like? :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Well, we need some fresh meat on the forum.
    All the pros here have gone mainly silent.

  • ridingwaves

    XLF is near support, Financials and oil taking market down….

    I think we are close to an oil short covering rally…..of course, I’m a rookie….

  • captainboom

    I was on watch in the engine room when we had this happen:

    On 30 November 1988, while in the Arabian Sea, a 20 mm cannon accidentally fired during maintenance, striking a KA-6 Intruder. The ensuing fire spread to six other aircraft, and two sailors were killed. (Wikipedia)

    In an 8 year stint, that was one of two times I was at General Quarters and it wasn’t a drill. The cannon fired because the dumb ass that was troubleshooting the problem with it didn’t unload it first. Shot tracer rounds into a loaded tanker. Killed himself and the poor bastard who happened to be walking by. They were both severely burned, and it wasn’t a quick death for either of them.
    Edit: This was on the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz.

  • BobbyLow

    Ya I know. It’s a good thing that RW, DT, and DF are around or it would be just you and me. LOL

    I’m off to my best start in years. Taking the last two weeks of the year probably didn’t make any difference but maybe it did. Who knows? Anyhow, I’ll probably be talkative today. :)

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes, XLF is near relative support on my lens.
    but I’m learning about knife falling momentum.

    we shall see.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=15&id=p90467935385

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have a 3 month Fib level, SPX 1980.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sounds like you guys are having fun today!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m trying.

    I’m seeing a potential support level SPX “2000”.

    but at EvilSpec we don’t buy into mental M numbers..right?

    I’m seeing 2000 because August was a support (& a doji early Oct)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=15&id=p44521916693

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nah – it’ll most likely be overshot – may hold after stopping out a lot of people. So it may be useful tomorrow, right now I suggest you guys watch the price action for signs of a floor.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Here’s a bone for you leeches….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah. this is where you must have the Zero. laser gun for the fight, yes?

    you are waaay over due on your cool videos. 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I even had a special promo running the other day. What ever happened to the three month freebie I got you? I never even saw you use it!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ouch (literally)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    zero-lite going quiet in a down trend. interesting.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • captainboom

    Yep. The tanker looked like that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It often suggests a low is looming ahead. But I personally always look for positive price action to back it up.

  • BobbyLow

    Wow. That’s some serious stuff and a heck of an experience.

    I was very fortunate regarding bad crashes during my 3 year experience in Germany. The closest I came to one was during my last year, I was a 20 year old crew chief on a truck similar to the one pictured. (I still can’t believe the amount of responsibility placed with a 20 year old.) We had an airborne emergency with a German F86 running hot with an engine light on. There was another F86 in the air watching him to make sure he was OK. The distressed aircraft landed safely and we were told to “10-19” return to the station. As we were returning, I happened to notice that the distressed aircraft’s buddy was landing without his landing gears down. My heart jumped a mile as the fighter bounced down the runway. We were right there and went to extract the pilot. He panicked and jumped to the runway about 5 seconds before we could get to him. The pilot broke his leg when he hit the runway. Needless to say he had a bad day but lived. Why he forgot to put his gears down, I’ll never know but this is another case of human error.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I had that job issues in the Summer, where I had to find another one.
    and I saw that promo the other day, but realized I can’t do the ‘day trade thing’.
    Soon I will be carrying a pager with production support.
    so I’m relegated soon to swing trade, one to three trades a month.

    That said, I encourage all the readers out there to go for it. I never heard ‘one’ bad thing about it in many years.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Here’s to double bottoms, and dead cat bounces! (salute)

  • Dyellowflash

    Thanks for ur 1995… I made my coins back by setting a pending there after being SL out for 1/2R loss earlier.

  • ridingwaves

    first purchase of UCO, long term hold….

  • BobbyLow

    Probably not a bad move RW.

    Who would have ever thought that UCO would see an $8 Handle? I would expect to join you sometime in the future but would like to see some /CL buying going on first.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    BL,
    Will scale in if it goes lower, timing is a bee with an itch….thus scale in strategy…

  • Darkthirty

    short again…might be a quick one

  • MK Ultra

    Scott’s setup from yesterday on the AUDJPY has surpassed the 1R mark so far. Did anyone take it?

  • strider

    Crazy Ivan caught it.

  • Darkthirty

    define “r”?

  • BobbyLow

    “R” is the amount at risk and amount willing to lose which is different for all of us.

  • MK Ultra

    Yeah, the campaign has surpassed the 1R mark (96.29’6) on that weekly setup
    http://evilspeculator.com/monday-morning-setups/

  • ridingwaves

    retest complete…..Vix hit resistance….2200 here we come….

  • MK Ultra

    Depends on your broker……..TOS has it at 96.29’6 (bid), on IB’s data it was 95.26’5 (mid)

  • BobbyLow

    In hindsight, I could have went for a third bite of GBP/JPY which is still tanking but I didn’t want to get greedy.

    Down 779 Pips since Friday morning. This fucker really moves.

  • Darkthirty

    all at risk, not willing to lose!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll be watching FAZ next few days.
    see if this T thing works on 3x funds.
    😉

    http://s24.postimg.org/bpf2wbdid/Bilbo.png

  • kim

    we might revisit 1200 first :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I didn’t get filled but just checked it – didn’t touch the 2R mark yet.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    SERIOUSLY? You have some homework this weekend!

    http://evilspeculator.com/tools/concepts/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ayayayyyyy…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I did ! :-)

  • BobbyLow

    The markets almost always overdo everything.

  • ridingwaves

    on the russell? too much hot money still looking for home….April is the time to go short now…

  • kim

    no, i thought you meant sth else, forget…

  • ridingwaves

    np, watching this channel….sorry gg, stole your chart

    http://s12.postimg.org/ydx0levrh/spx_channel.jpg

  • Ronebadger

    IF…it actually turns out to be a channel…need more points on the bottom, don’t you

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    3 positions.
    1 to pay for commission & lunch.
    1 to pay for all of the small losses of the game.
    1 to stick it to the sucker on the other side of the table who can’t ever say “never”.

    someday.

  • ridingwaves

    not sure but comfortable on the 1992 being a third if more needed…

  • Dyellowflash

    mole, zero is down?

  • BobbyLow

    It’ll come soon enough.

    I’d swap ages with you in a heartbeat but not work environment. There is nothing better that I know of that is legal and as potentially rewarding as this business. I also enjoy walking down the hallway and telling my wife “Honey I’m home”. :)

    On the bright side, you have the advantage of experience so when you are ready to do this full time, all you’ll need is a little seed money and be ready to rock and roll.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You nailed it.
    +1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    works for me.
    iron sharpens iron.
    I bet you could place another channel under that one using THE LOW.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Should be back – I accidentally got logged out of my remote session.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Mole this morning: “The trading range in equities is probably going to be pretty contained today ”

    I knew when I wrote this that I’m probably going to eat my words – LOL :-)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yum yum yum…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t have time for a post tonight, folks – sorry. Was busy working on a Thor related issue.

  • denali92

    Previously a lurker…. now a sub …. I look only at US equity indices right now. I have my own research based approach that is focused on market turning points – a bit different than the focus here – but I am hoping the Mole and the Zero will provide my work with a little extra edge.

    My major research posts can be found here: http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/

    From the viewpoint of my work,

    We may have already seen a bottom like in March 2007 and March 2012 prior to a late employment report (noted in 2 below), but with the volatility we are seeing, I think it is important for people to be aware of some other potential historical analogs.

    Just a few quick points:

    1) We have not seen this type of sustained early January price action since 2008 and 2009 – both times we bottomed on the Tuesday post opex /
    post MLK

    2) We have a late employment report – it has been VERY RARE since Jan 2007 to fall in to a late employment report – the only recent time was
    Jan 2009 and we had peaked on Jan 6th above the upper bollo)…. In March 2007, we bottomed below the lower bollo on the Monday before and
    topped on employment day and then MAJOR bottomed on Opex Wednesday. In March 2012, we bottomed on the Tuesday before and then rallied through opex and in Jan 2014, we bottomed on the Monday before employment, rallied in to employment and then chopped around till a post opex peak. (we also had a late employment report in Nov 2013 – which just saw a one day down trade on the Thursday before)

    3) We have seen MAJOR opex turns in three of the last four months – with two MAJOR bottoms on Opex Tuesday in December and Opex Wednesday in October, so if we keep declining in to next week – it could set up for another very good opex bottom.

    Great to see the year start out in such an interesting way,

    Looking forward to learning a few things here and possibly getting involved with currencies and commodities on occasion.

    -D

  • Billabong

    Miners are rocking. AG position up 27% since the 30th … and all the others are breaking out NEM, GG, HL…

  • Dyellowflash

    sorry, i saw ur note too late! Do not short!

  • Dyellowflash

    Thanks. My email is dyellowflash@gmail.com
    … maybe we can work something out… I just shorted 1/10 position at 2016 SnP.

  • Billabong

    Any thoughts on the YM / ES /NQ hammers? FOMC pre-Wed games or attempted bottom?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I like Hammers for long entries when the 19 & 39 are pointing downhill.
    not spread wide like a dental patient.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32665127838

    just my 2 grams.

  • Dyellowflash

    Out now at 09 for 6 pts. Going to keep a clean slate for this coming FOMC.

  • Billabong

    I appreciate your wisdom … thanks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hi Denali – thanks for your comment. Let me be frank with you – we are not fundamental traders and as such all that stuff you mention makes my head spin. Although we recognize certain short term event risk I never try to connect previous events of any kind – all I really care about are price levels and other technical evidence. To be clear however – even IF there is an edge in what you’re describing, your sample size is simply not sufficient to draw any credible conclusion. These things are usually clear in hindsight – and they often stop working as soon as you start acting on them. You have been warned.

    The work we do here is mostly technical – today’s a good example. We were scanning for signs of a low on the Zero. First time we failed, second time we were successful (I may post a video tomorrow morning). Being long right now is a good spot to be in preparation of tomorrow’s FOMC announcement – stop below today’s lows and Bob’s your uncle. That was the plan I described in this morning post. Everything else is way beyond my pay grade honestly. If we hold today’s lows then the current ST campaign may turn into a daily one. If not then we’ll try once price action tells us that it’s time to buy or sell. We take it day by day and we strictly play it by our system rules.

    Most retail traders believe that there is some magic about trading and that calling tops/lows is key to be successful. Nothing could be further from the truth. Entries are only a tiny aspect of our trading activities. Successful trading is 40% risk control and 60% self control. In turn the risk control portion is only half money management and one half market analysis.

    Most traders emphasize market analysis while avoiding self control and de-emphasizing risk control. To become successful traders need to invert their priorities. Most importantly they need to detach themselves from a psychological trap of making predictions which is a total waste of time, given how many people in history already have tried and failed sensationally.

  • BobbyLow

    That says it all Mole. Well done!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Wisdom?
    (Gerb looks left…Gerb looks right)

  • Billabong

    How are you doing with the oil trade? I keep looking for a turn signal and oil keeps going lower.

  • Billabong

    That was an excellent response. I’m working on that 60%, especially the last two days with major up moves in my positions … As I over think it I turn to meditation. Patiently waiting for those turn signals is tough.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – Perhaps ‘patiently waiting …’ just is … and you choose to make it ‘tough’ … meditation, music and / or doing a different task can be great aids.

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent! I expect to give some profit back before I close this trade out and that’s OK. I’m not going to terminate until price turns around. I have no idea when this will happen. Could be soon or not.

    The bottom line for me is that trading a trend (whether it is short, medium or long term) involves not getting the first part of the move and not keeping the last part of the move. The middle part of the trend is the most tender for me. :)

    Otherwise, it gets into calling bottoms or tops which I absolutely suck at.

  • MK Ultra

    Who’s your broker?

  • MK Ultra

    Yeah, 2R is 95.29’8 -ish

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s running now and you guys should have received a notification.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPX:TLT ratio.
    if the red kelter is crossed lower, bear spring is upon us.

    otherwise, the ratio is at a range limit.

    http://s21.postimg.org/7enjykf2v/muppet_ratio.png

    (close today was 15.21)

  • Scott Phillips

    Dont look like hammers to me

    I remain short

  • Scott Phillips

    This is interesting oberservations, thank you :) It raises the interesting question of “how many observations do you need to draw a statistically valid conclusion?”

  • Scott Phillips

    The new target is 95.45 – rules suggest getting out of position there, though it will probably continue on for a bit

    I just follow the rules :)

  • Scott Phillips

    Risk – the amount of pips you risk from your entry to your stop

  • Scott Phillips

    You need to stop talking now 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    Round number support is real. Demonstrably so

  • Billabong

    5 hours ago they did … a lot can change in one hour … lol.

  • Scott Phillips

    Oh shit my aplogies – I was referring tot he daily setup not the weekly one – my bad! Disregard my advice please

  • Scott Phillips

    Boy that is SUPERB advice.

    “In chess, the pawns go first” – Magneto

  • Skynard

    Happy FN new Year Rats, been on a long hiatus and it feels good to be back. Looking at /CL at the moment and it seems we are their on a monthly time frame. Currently have an order waiting at the lower 25 hourly (currently at 47.11). One more crack of the whip to create a divergence:)

  • Skynard

    Additionally, /NG weekly looking good and seasonably so:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    HNY Skynard!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Metallica?

  • Skynard

    https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A0LEVjY3y6xUg4UA9wEPxQt.;_ylu=X3oDMTBsa3ZzMnBvBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw–?p=HNY+Skynard!&tnr=21&vid=AD92C9FAD18554EF4022AD92C9FAD18554EF4022&l=251&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts2.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DUN.608040753898259289%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DtIk6IjABXkU&sigr=11aelfi2p&tt=b&tit=Lynyrd+Skynyrd+-+Poor+Man%26%2339%3Bs+Dream&sigt=115coag69&back=https%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fyhs%2Fsearch%3Fp%3DHNY%2BSkynard%2521%26ei%3DUTF-8%26hsimp%3Dyhs-001%26hspart%3Dmozilla&sigb=12qu8uamt&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-001

  • MK Ultra

    Yeah, I thought that’s what you were referring to :-) No worries!

  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    My super detailed data goes back to Jan 2007 – so there are just under 100 event observations.

    I have enhanced my detailed data with all of the data back to 1998 which is when the markets seemed to change as the Central Banks became more interventionist – so overall, that is just under 200 events for opex and employment and a little less for FOMC and holidays.

    Statisticians might prefer 1000s of observations – but with a swing traders time frame, it would be very difficult to get that with the markets given that there were only 12 swings of greater than 50 pts in the ES last year out of approximately 30 potential events.

    -Jan post opex / post holiday bottom
    -Feb (one day earlier than expected) employment bottom
    -April: Employment day top
    -April: Pre opex – thanks to Good Friday bottom
    -May: Opex bottom
    July: One day late post opex top

    August: Post employment / Pre opex bottom (one day late too)
    September: Opex / post FOMC top
    October: Opex bottom
    December: Employment Top
    December: Pre FOMC / Opex bottom
    December: Post Christmas (very rare – last one was Dec 2007) holiday top.

    I certainly have found an edge (bit only with US equity markets – it does NOT exist with other markets in this way) – but my research just may not be appropriate for this blog given the overall approach that Mole is sensibly preaching to everyone.

    -D

  • kim

    what about this one…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

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