Now Reading
Pick Your Poison
44

Pick Your Poison

by The MoleAugust 23, 2017

I don’t expect much movement over the next two days as traders are now shifting into a holding pattern in anticipation of the Jackson Hole meeting this coming Friday. Both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are scheduled to deliver speeches that day, which could potentially roil markets on both sides of the Atlantic. Of course beyond a momentary excuse for spiking volatility nobody really cares about what Yellen has to say anymore at this point, as she’s basically turned into the central banker equivalent of your problem tenant repeatedly promising to drop by that overdue rent check but never actually doing it.

Instead all eyes will be on Draghi in anticipation of another hawkish soundbite that may justify the 13% increase in the EUR/USD over the past six months. While the Federal Reserve is at least testing the waters regarding normalization the ECB is still purchasing assets at about €60 Billion per month whilst holding interest rates at low levels. So investors will want to know whether or not the ECB will begin winding down those asset purchases in the coming year. Personally I think they will head into the weekend disappointed as Draghi is not likely to again say anything that could launch another EUR/USD rocket like the one we got served back in June. Let’s remember that the ECB’s target rate for this year’s economic projections were based on a EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.08 and not 1.18 or even higher. A strengthening Euro will undercut inflation, which continues to run well below the ECB’s target.

2017-08-23_EURUSD_update

Speaking of which, our EUR/USD campaign survived Draghi’s speech earlier this morning (nothing happened) and although it’s starting to look a lot more solid I’m leaving my trail in place for now. Most likely it’ll just gyrate within the 100-hour Bollinger until Friday anyway.

2017-08-23_AUDUSD_update

The AUD/USD campaign is also still in the running, however it’s looking a lot more iffy and may just join cable into a stop out. On paper this one is looking excellent on the daily panel but we’ve lost a lot of time here and the odds of a ramp higher from here before Friday are slim. Keeping my stop in place however as the rules are the rules, right?

2017-08-23_copper_update

Copper got stopped out at 1.2R – not a huge win but a pretty passable one if you consider all the crazy gyrations it’s been plotting over the past week. I thought we had a runner here but it suddenly turned on a dime. All part of the game, no sense to waste time on complaining.

2017-08-22_Zero

The E-Mini was heading steadily higher yesterday and the Zero signal only briefly dropped below Zero on three occasions. Not a strong trend session by any measure but it’s still vacation season and participation is seasonally slim during August. Plus historically it’s a flat month, so we shouldn’t complain. We’re opening lower today, so let’s see if it can keep it up or if we’re revisiting the lows. Which I personally wouldn’t mind of course 😉

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Mark Shinnick

    This is brilliant marketing with what little credibility WS has left. USA Today: “Waiting for stocks to get cheaper? Don’t wait too long, pros say.”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9514d653f9251eb660d03287a806d292aaa98a0c319a6fb55280891bb2796ee5.jpg

  • HD

    $SPX nice reaction from 37 symmetry noted yesterday. 24(55) fibo

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    SNORT!

  • HD

    /VX 6% move!!!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot some cytr lottery ticket still credible?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • OzarkHillBilly

    Looks like a good day to take the family hiking and swimming. Y’all go ahead and break a leg or two in the market while I’m gone.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, sorry – I didn’t have that much to say today. Not for a lack of trying… I’m spending the day coding stuff which has most of my attention.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Are you a trader in a coder’s body? or a coder in a trader’s body?

    not that there’s anything wrong with that..
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes …and what else to sanely believe as you mentioned yesterday:
    ” Everyone knows it and the longer this drags out the more violent the patient is expected to respond when finally forced to face cold turkey.”
    – But, on the other hand we have this other handy market POV that says:
    “What everybody knows isn’t worth knowing”.

    The mental fuckery of all this is always amazing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2446 currently.
    My charts last longer than day old bread!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82386495422

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Dude that’s just how it it is right now. Perfect time to step back and work on other tasks, IMO. I have done pretty well hitting the minor swings over the summer, but I tend to think that the current confusion in equities won’t resolve until after Labor Day and maybe even longer.

  • StockTalker

    Love to hear that:)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Closed it out.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Well, it actually looks like I’ll be writing a resume and mowing the yard today. My boy is acting sick and his mom is too soft-hearted to realize that he just wants her sole attention all day long. Probably best to work on this resume thing anyway; when a guy with lots of money already wants to hire you, I suppose it’s best not to keep him waiting very long.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Git ‘er done. Don’t let mom turn your boy into a little wuzz, you either straighten him out now or you’ll both regret it later.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Problem is that people start believing their own lies after a while.

  • Mary

    “ The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them… To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just as long as it is needed, to deny the existence of objective reality and all the while to take account of the reality which one denies—all this is indispensably necessary. Even in using the word doublethink it is necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using the word one admits that one is tampering with reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the lie always one leap ahead of the truth.”

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exactly correct; one of the measures of psychological normalcy is exactly that normal and expected perpensity to self-delusion.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, only the non-pathological can use the ability honesty with integrity to overall ethics.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    No worries, I’m on the case. Both of her parents are slowly dying and steadily deteriorating, so she takes some refuge in spending time with our boy when she isn’t away and taking care of her parents. She and her sisters were all spoiled by their parents and she is becoming more aware of the effects of this later in life.

    It’s taken a little work, but I’ve convinced her now that just because he wants to play with toy guns and tanks, he isn’t going to grow up to be a violent mass murderer. He’s just a boy and we need to help him be one. When mom is not around, we work on a basic fighting stance and how to throw a punch, but more importantly, we talk and I try to relate serious concepts to him on a level that he can understand, whenever there is a lesson to be learned. And there are consequences to bad behavior! Yet his mother still wonders why he listens to me and not her when he is told what to do.

    We are friends with a couple who have a son of similar age who has been allowed to kill chickens and nearly kill other people’s dogs and cats simply out of frustration or anger because the animals didn’t want to play, etc. He tried to hold my son’s head underwater when no adults were watching. No consequences. The issue is either laughed at or entirely avoided by his parents, both of whom are avowed leftists, peaceniks, and borderline antifa types. Problem solved on my end when I told my kid it was ok to fight back, and how to do it. No more bullying once you beat the bully.

    Incidentally, I know of no better indicator for a life full of future trouble, than a child that habitually kills and maims animals and who is a bully to other kids.

  • Mary

    Why would you choose to have friends like that?

  • Mark Shinnick

    “….hold one’s enemies even closer” ?. A convenient case study of the danger-close real-world if objectivity can be maintained.

  • BobbyLow

    “Incidentally, I know of no better indicator for a life full of future trouble, than a child that habitually kills and maims animals and who is a bully to other kids.”

    I believe this is true. Based on your description, the parents of this child appear to be lacking basic parental skills to say the least. I might tell them that your child can no longer play with him because of the potential irrevocable harm that could come to your child and that you are no longer willing to take this kind of risk.

    BTW, I don’t know of any real “peacenicks” that would allow their child to kill or torture animals. These people sound pretty fucked up.

  • Julie

    Hi BL Just checking the blog. We know of a family whose young son had a fixation with fire and would play with matches. Later in life he developed into a pyromaniac and started a fire at an apartment complex killing six people. He was never treated or counseled as a young boy and his parents were in denial of his propensity for fire. Very sad
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yep, had a young teenager in our neighborhood.
    started a fire in the nextdoor bathroom. ..they exist.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/djv5gGXEyXo/maxresdefault.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. This is some dangerous stuff Julie.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for mentioning the Jackson Hole Meeting. The meeting begins tomorrow. So let the Bullshit begin. :)

    In the mean time, I’m going to cash and will wait to see what’s on the plate on Monday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think the Meeting is a crock. I haven’t been able to spot any of them, on webcam.

    https://www.seejh.com/webcams/jacksonhole/jackson/town-square-broadway

  • Ronebadger

    Yellen looks like she’s under the antler arch …. r i g h t ……..NOW

  • BobbyLow

    I thought I saw Jan doing a little shopping. We camped in JH a few years ago and have pictures taken underneath the arch of antlers.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “Problem solved on my end when I told my kid it was ok to fight back, and how to do it. No more bullying once you beat the bully.”

    I hope he took care of business – ahem… 😉

    When she was young after moving to L.A. my wife was babysitting as an au pair for some rich couple who had a little six year old boy. Extremely intelligent and clearly psychotic tendencies. Looked her straight in the face on her first day and told her that he would get her fired, you just watch. She didn’t stay around for long as the kid was creeping her out, nasty little fucker.

    Some kids just are this way, no matter how good or bad the parents. The worst thing you can do is to let them get away with shit at a young age. They need to learn early that their actions have consequences, otherwise they turn into monsters as adults, with horrible consequences to the people who’s lives they end up ruining.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So you have been to California! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The Mole is on the case, always 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • OzarkHillBilly

    I use the term “friends” loosely here. More like “mom friends” in a group of moms that like to get together and let their kids play. Sometimes I try to engage the father in conversation if we end up at a social event together, but although he is a university professor, he usually just regurgitates something from MSNBC if politics come up.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    It’s definitely bizarre. Both parents are well meaning and they know their son has some issues, but they don’t know what to do. So dad rolls with “boys will be boys,” and mom just acts even more indulgent, which IMO is very enabling. If our sons ever play together, which is rare now, I make sure they are closely supervised.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Couldn’t agree more, and yes indeed he took care of it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    rebot yesterday, first obj .65

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, pleased not to have entered drv; it dropped out of a support zone suggesting no armageddon this time around, and pleased no equity short at all overnight, but support now coming into volatility.

  • StockTalker

    out of /NQ @5824, shorting @ 5840

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Yeah I’m glad that I decided to back off. Could be like this for a few days before we get a solid move. Having said that, of course, we all realize this could change at any time.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    New Post, in case any of you are still lurking here.