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Ping Pong
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Ping Pong

by The MoleMay 29, 2009

3:09pm EDT: As Fujisan pointed out the other day – we’re not going anywhere until we break away from this damn sideways 880/930 channel we’ve been stuck in for the past three weeks:

My concern is that we are consolidating sideways here just like we did last month prior to the final push to the 930 high. Of course for us option traders this is pure hell unless you had the foresight to buy either spreads or butterflies.

Anyway, I have reached the point where I really don’t care anymore – even if my line gets breached. I actually almost look forward to it happening as I can’t stand the whipsaw or the theta burn anymore. However, I have found a great tool to train you rats for the current market conditions:

Enjoy!

3:36pm EDT: Finally – last 30 minutes of this shit – can’t wait for the weekend.

The question of course is – which way is it goint to resolve?

3:53pm EDT: Alright – there it is – I’m out after taking another hit. Fuck – this was an expensive week for me.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • TrappedBetween

    and another one bites the dust…

  • Che

    got 14660 … beats getting pipped to death today

  • Anonymous

    bet geronimo killed it in the last 5 minutes…

  • Count_de_Monee

    Repost (you're too fast Mole)

    And how about this chart. To me it says it all. The BKX is up over 120% since the March lows.

    You'd think this would be accompanied by the big boyz buying, no?
    http://www.screencast.com/t/E63nJCBGpVl

    Guess not…. The selloff is coming IMO, I just wish it would start today 😉

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    im holding on to my ES shorts but this tape is so damn frustrating

  • springheel_jack

    The zero clearly bunked off fishing at lunchtime. Sensible.

    Looks like we might spike higher into the close.

  • isaiah64v4

    Mole

    Let me throw some love your way for the game above!

  • molecool

    Haven't sold my puts yet – holding them until my line is breached. Good chance however it'll happen today.

  • eunsuh

    june 15 is my turn date

  • onorio

    NOW OR NEVER!

  • Osso

    SRS closing under 20….????

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    You never know with that sucker… it is above 20 one minute.. you wink your eyes once and behold it is below 19… yes I mean 19..

    Anyways, it is not going under 19 today.. but by end of the year, I can guarantee it will be trading at 2 bucks or less.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    MM are very cruel… you will be twisting and turning in pain and theta burn all weekend long.. you wont get your escape today.. amen

  • Osso

    here comes the XLF pump….

  • isaiah64v4

    You expect real estate to make a big come back by then?

  • isaiah64v4

    You expect real estate to make a big come back by then?

  • Autopsias

    Mole you're the best! You build systems, blog every minute, send emails, trade, teaches us, puts up some nice rammstein music from time to time, and now also provides games for our leisure in whippy markets!! :):)

    I mean, tomorrow will you cook us dinner too?? :):)

  • chilling

    MLMT,

    Can you explain Why?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    here we go guys. o wait no its going up. wait ok its going down, no wait….

  • Osso

    expecting a SOX pump next week, monday/tuesday……

  • b00b

    that game was the most fun i've had all day

    level 6!!!

  • Autopsias

    How many of them actually read these kind of blogs and perhaps this one? Come on! Identify yourselves! :):)

    They probably have a few laughs with us…

    Grrrr

  • cuvo

    GM rallying from .75 now .83

  • eunsuh

    remember…all worthy trading happens in the last 7 minutes of the day. I'm betting down, so we should go up.

  • pricey

    Frankly, I don't care what they do anymore….I am having more fun playing the new game. 🙂

  • molecool

    They do what they do best – and I respect them for that. Really can't blame them for exploiting the current market conditions as much as they can. After all – if the bears don't show up for work and the bulls don't have any cash left to push the tape higher market makers have to trigger buying and selling. If the tape remains completely flat they don't get paid.

  • cuvo

    Evil psychics provide the liquidity

  • Osso

    XLF 12.19..previous high…..

  • salvadorveiga

    ~I'm closing my Forex Trades… net gain of 270 pips 😀

    I'm happy.

    I'm with Mole freakin market is becoming frustrating and annoying… so I'm turning to Forex until primary 2 resolves it's course..

    Call me when Primary 3 is about to start please….

  • BearsRus

    Lever 5: 13855 best score up to now

  • springheel_jack

    A lot of these ultra ETFs just burn out. SRS down from $273 at Nov Peak & $111 in March.

    They're killed in volatile markets by matching the daily movements rather than longer term. Also all based on options I think so high theta burn maybe.

    $2 by EOY looks reasonable based on past performance. None of these leveraged ETFs are long term instruments.

  • Osso

    with a pump in O/N futures on sunday they may jump 914 easily…..for mondays opening….

  • TrappedBetween

    someone better get the medics and counselors over to xtrends before this gets ugly.

  • springheel_jack

    That would be down wouldn't it.

    If so, I agree. Bulls are running on fumes now. Might see the blowoff top in the interim though.

  • annamall

    This looks like it's going to end up, I had a bad feeling. I love that game more fun that this f%*&&**&ing market

  • Count_de_Monee

    Got Tom Petty on. “Free Falling”

    Hope it does the trick…

  • pricey

    Now that's a good one. lmao

  • bsummertime

    play curveball, its more fun

  • annamall

    Ha ha me too Pricey!

  • Skates

    Theta is giving me some acid burns today… 🙁

  • springheel_jack

    Now that was just spooky.

    I can feel a business plan coming together here.

  • Peasant

    GME moving nicely today. Looks like it wants to close that 15% gap down from last week. bought calls in GME, UNG, and OIH this morning to add to other energy and metal positions.

  • fuw

    Good to have something worthwhile to focus on for a change…. level 7, 20760 so far.

  • Duuuuuude

    I just sold my SLV Calls for a tidy sum very near some resistance.

    There went 13.84.

  • pricey

    The evil closers strike again.

  • springheel_jack

    Did we just go through Mole's line in the sand?

  • Keirsten

    Passing you the Advil. I already took half the bottle though.

  • CowardlyLion

    Long GHL, looking for a couple bucks on Monday.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    SCREW IT!!!!!!!! I'm out. You all can feel free to go long now.

  • BaldEagle

    What the fuck is this shit?

  • disrespekt

    10pt bar in the last 5m…WTF??!

  • salvadorveiga

    oh my fucking god…

    10 minutes and we ride up almost 20 fucking points !!!

  • onorio

    precisely..

  • eunsuh

    uh…..someone want to explain this bullshit since I don't listen to CNBS anymore. Did Obama die or something???

  • Skates

    On the way to the local burn unit, just received greater than 3rd degree burns from theta and the GS boys!

  • BaldEagle

    Was that bear capitulation?

  • Osso

    turn your charts upside down…

  • springheel_jack

    We're not out of the range yet though. I'll be adding to shorts at 925-930.

    Blowoff top in next week or two IMO.

  • Peasant

    huge volume in DRYS jun 7.5 and 9 calls. missed out on that one. volume has been increasing last 3 days.

  • Osso

    tgt. for Dow …maybe…..

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    yes…speaking for myself only

  • n2thezonez

    Some body really wanted to buy some shares 3:59:45 est

  • BalaB

    ES 927.75 and NQ 1442.75 was the high………..(rhetorical)….
    hmmmmm…..Bastards !

  • Count_de_Monee

    Boy, was I wrong! LOL

    Was there any real buying there or was that futures led with end of month mark up?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Wow, QQQQ set a new high for the entire rally

  • itsgold

    Sold my DRYS calls today for a nice 50% profit. however, i'm getting raped on my SPY and QQQQ puts. aieee

    My only other long right now is in uranium [URRE].

  • CowardlyLion

    That was Goldman et al. buying programs waiting til the last moment to show their hand and demonstrate that bulls remain in charge.

    http://yfrog.com/e370317221p

  • annamall

    Hi K, At this point I prefer Valium with a vodka chaser! 😉

  • zenith191

    Ditto per my bleeding trade account. I agree with Fujisan and Mole. This is just a waste of time and money until we break out of this sideways channel.

  • Keirsten

    SPY finally tagged the 200 SMA. The EMA looms above though.

  • Skates

    I should have followed my own gut instinct, this was all institutional, remember a majority of their buys happen EOM and EOD…

  • Peasant

    Anna – I saw on the last thread that you picked up a bf in OIH. nice one!! I bought the 110 calls this morning. Coal names have been hot this week. holding MEE and CNX.

  • http://www.nkouts.com nkouts

    Level 6 / Score: 15705 on curveball first try … wahooooo!

    Oh, the market sucks too.

  • BaldEagle

    If you get a blowoff top you'll be over the 200 day moving average, and it will be a Nantucket sleigh ride, an orgy of momo players.

  • Peasant

    now you're talking. speaking of vodka, time for some white russians.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    what kind of a fucking close was that? That is not called a market, that is straight manipulation. What bullshit. At least Im not emptied out and have capital to trade when this becomes a real fuckin market, unitl then I am OUT

  • Keirsten

    C'mon, I have the wine, time to chase the dogs. No Chanel for us today. 🙁

    Have a good weekend Sistah if I don't talk to you sooner. I think I'm going to get numb now.

  • Keirsten

    Now THAT sounds really good!

  • JWBlack

    GROW — anyone know why there was all that volume today in this stock?

  • itsgold

    Courtesy of the PPT.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • springheel_jack

    200 day EMA & Jan top to go through to get to 950 from 944. I don't think the SPX will make it through.

  • molecool

    Yupp – they've been keeping a low profile all week – got ready for the kill in the end. Sometimes I hate having to follow my own rules because I saw it coming. But I refuse to trade on emotion and I'm not about to start now.

  • eunsuh

    i've been reading charts for quite a while, and I can tell ya, I didn't see that coming. Someone was playing this off to screw some folks.

    Me included :>[

  • annamall

    LMOL it's just institutions showing their hand, trying to get the last retail investor in jump in w/both feet, so then they can sell sell sell. once all the bears are gong.

  • Keirsten

    Exactly Jack. That could really suck up ahead unless this dumb tag on the SMA was enough. I've seen incredible selling volume for the last two days, so this was a total blindside to me. I feel for those who trade on margin- it has to hurt big time. CYA next week buddy. 😉

  • Osso

    First, I made 980
    Then, I made 1580
    Finally I made over 9000

    Seems the game gave me the tgts. in SPX, NDX and Dow….

    Good weekend ….!!!!

  • annamall

    Hi Peasant, yes, that was one that worked out well today as a matter of fact, my best trades have been BF or BWB or VS. Energy is on fire and probably has allot more room to run! 🙂
    Good weekend sweetie!

  • annamall

    No not even Coach or even the copies @ this point! ahhhhh..You too and me too LOL

  • BearsRus

    Lvl 7: 20625 awesome!

  • annamall

    eemmmm sure does!

  • HugoAlfonso

    Count_de_Monee!

    There are nekked pictures of a certain lady in those screenshots! NSFW!!!

    -HugoAlfonso

    I was forced out of lurkness due to this!

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Because of chop chop decay – IYR is where it was back in Oct.. At that point SRS was $150. Now it is $20.. It has been cut into 1/7th… So, if this chop chop decay continues and even if IYR doesn't go anywhere.. SRS could get cut into 1/7th of what it is NOW – which would be a few bucks.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    No I don't. SRS dies because of chop chop decay – IYR is where it was back in Oct.. At that point SRS was $150. Now it is $20.. It has been cut into 1/7th… So, if this chop chop decay continues and even if IYR doesn't go anywhere.. SRS could get cut into 1/7th of what it is NOW – which would be a few bucks.

    Check out http://survivalkitsandtips.com/archives.html#le

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Hey Thanks for your long detailed post about how you trade currencies.. You said you use stochastics. Can you share some more details – hourly chart? 5 min chart .. which chart ? And what stochastic is this – fast, slow, full ? Thanks again

  • salvadorveiga

    full stochastic (10,3,3) usually hourly charts and 4H charts….

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I am trying out the indicator you use. This might sound like a very stupid question – the full stochastic that I have is of the form FS(10,10) – how do I give it 3 parameters in prophet charts… Also, how do you pull up 4H charts – what charting software do you use?

    Also, why do you use 4H as opposed to 2H?

    Also, on the Full stochastic, what is your buy and sell trigger.

    ________________________________

  • airlines

    The fact that the 'pros' come out in force in the last hour is not news, just as the fact the the first hour of the day has always been amature hour. And the TICK is of some use but, like many other indicators of prior value, it too has become full of statistical noice to the point of becoming only marginally valuable.

    i found this interesting site of http://is.gd/HGYt lots of links to finance and economics articles

  • katzo7

    Yeah, That i what this is all about. What they have done is to devise a system (black boxes) that surplants the usually TA. That way only they know and no one else can profit. I swear they are all internet connected and send out a signal that says to buy all at once. They are selling now at top to lock in profits.

  • eunsuh

    I don't know if you are joking, but there is some truth. Today, Friday, was a good example when the MACD for the 5-min hardly budged, even tho the SPX was cajorting up and down wildly.

    I truly believe by observing the currencies and indices, that manipulation is occurring, and possibility exists that each day is planned accordingly. i.e., a flight plan.

    Its too bad people just agree to continue to play the game, as it is. Massive intervention occurs that is blatant and should be apparent to any regulatory oversight folks (of course they are bought off too).

  • katzo7

    No, this time eunsuh I was not joking.
    IMO there are more people playing the market, the internet has provided this as a venue for easy access. Look at the sheer number of people on the financial blogs. I have noticed within my time involved with these at the characters shift somewhat, new ones come on, others drop out. There is an old saying when everyone has the key, they change the lock. And IMO, that is what they have done.
    1. One thing that I have noticed is that during a sell down, in the past (compare with next comment #2), the market would form a very logical EW3 down, pattern looked great (you do EWs eunsuh?), then go up for its slight retrace, searching out the the EW4, then it would go sideways for an extended period of time usually during early afternoon, then it would shoot up, breaking the EW4 pattern. This occurs on the smaller time scales. In these cases the MACD/STOs would sometimes be mid range, heading down, then turn mid stream and shoot up, opposite of what they should have done.
    2. Now their pattern is much more immediate, no extended sideways movement, the attempt of forming the EW4 slight retrenchment is much shorter.

    But, I am now on to them which means this will probably change as when I can figure it out, something else is in the offing. The above is why I would say that this number, say the 94xx level is what to watch, if it breaks that my EW pattern has been destroyed, is off the table. I am tellin gyou, these wave patterns looked perfect.

    So finally, if everyone, even some retail, know EWs or how to draw trend lines, or know resistance levels, in other words the TA of it all, a new system has to come into play in order to screw as many as possible out of potential profits. This is IMHO what has occurred.

  • katzo7

    No, this time eunsuh I was not joking.
    IMO there are more people playing the market, the internet has provided this as a venue for easy access. Look at the sheer number of people on the financial blogs. I have noticed within my time involved with these at the characters shift somewhat, new ones come on, others drop out. There is an old saying when everyone has the key, they change the lock. And IMO, that is what they have done.
    1. One thing that I have noticed is that during a sell down, in the past (compare with next comment #2), the market would form a very logical EW3 down, pattern looked great (you do EWs eunsuh?), then go up for its slight retrace, searching out the the EW4, then it would go sideways for an extended period of time usually during early afternoon, then it would shoot up, breaking the EW4 pattern. This occurs on the smaller time scales. In these cases the MACD/STOs would sometimes be mid range, heading down, then turn mid stream and shoot up, opposite of what they should have done.
    2. Now their pattern is much more immediate, no EXTENDED sideways movement, the attempt of forming the EW4 slight retrenchment is much shorter. Hence, more know about this so shorter time frames,no time to set up.

    But, I am now on to them which means this will probably change as when I can figure it out, something else is in the offing. The above is why I would say that this number, say the 94xx level is what to watch, if it breaks that my EW pattern has been destroyed, is off the table. I am telling you, these EW patterns looked perfect, no logical reason for them to be broken.

    So finally, if everyone, even some retail, know EWs or how to draw trend lines, or know resistance levels, in other words the TA of it all, a new system has to come into play in order to screw as many as possible out of potential profits. This is IMHO what has occurred.

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