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Please Report To The Psych Ward!
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Please Report To The Psych Ward!

by The MoleNovember 4, 2014

So Thor triggered on crude a few days ago and after weeks of sideways pain I wasn’t particularly thrilled. But nevertheless the entry was taken according to Thor’s tested trading rules. The day after didn’t serve much to change my initial outlook:

2014-11-04_crude_1

What would YOU expect to happen next? Exactly. Señor Mole, please report to the psych ward!

2014-11-04_crude_after

Except that I don’t listen to my emotions (ask Mrs. Evil) – and was rewarded a little over a session later. That’s another 2R in the bank. Moral of the story: emotions = bad – system trading rules = good.

While we’re on the subject – I have been a busy bee and am about to unveil a little goodie for you Thor subs.

See you on the other side of my trades.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • James Spence

    A system helps without a doubt otherwise we are conquered by emotion, or what ever that demon is on every trade.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Am i missing a holiday? No data feed on the Zero this morning – have notified TOS support.

  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of Oil, I wonder if the Saudis are doing this for market share in the US or to drive prices down so low that Fracking has to be shut down because it is no longer profitable? Kind of reminds me of an abandoned Ethanol Plant not to far from where I live.
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/saudi-oil-price-cut-upends-market-1415063053

  • James Spence

    A little off topic…I am using Trade Navigator for charting. I do not care for it too much, but I hate to spend time on a new tool if it is not much better. Also I have never been convinced that the very high priced systems would make me a better trader so I do not look at them. In the end there are many blogs etc. recommending various systems, yet few that can be identified as guys that actually trade.

    I am leaning towards NinjaTrader now. I only want to use it for Forex and Futures.
    Any thoughts on better system or serious limitations with Ninja Trader?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I live NinjaTrader despite a few bugs here and there when it comes to charting. The ATM stuff is amazing for setting up your entry/stop/exit triplet. As a developer I of course appreciate the .Net support although you may not care much about that. Just download it and use the free EOD Kinetick connector to poke around. I’m sure you’ll love it.

    Tools – completely irrelevant. All you need is a basic chart – all them fancy gimmicks are for retail schmucks searching for some holy grail.

  • topedge

    You can get a trial with some brokers that offer live feeds.

  • Skynard

    Closed the gap and we are off.

  • Skynard

    Fight at SPX 2K (Gap support)

  • SirDagonet

    I heard a financial newscast on my car radio a few days ago that said fracking can be profitable at $80, and maybe as far down as $70…

    @Billabong takes issue with that, and told me one day:

    “It (the article I linked) also fails to mention frackers YTD are spending $1.60 for every $1 of revenue (red witch syndrome). And banks are requiring drillers hedge forward production as part of the loan process. The biggest money in fracking right now is flipping properties”

    Here’s an interesting observation today: ” Saudi Arabia’s move to keep itself competitive amid tanking oil prices, sees the oil-producing country cutting oil prices sold to the U.S., while it is increasing prices to large buyers, like China.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-slides-on-speculation-about-saudis-pricing-strategy-2014-11-04-310308

  • BobbyLow

    This is a tough one because technically there is no other place to be than short oil unless one was calling a bottom. And calling a bottom based on what? The 2012 Low? 2010 Low? Support is only good for as long as it holds and then what?

    OTOH, at some point price will call uncle. And that will probably be when the majority believe that there is no end to the downside or believe that price will go back to $15 Per Bbl like it was in the late 90’s.

    I believe that it’s in the Saudis best interests to drive price down far enough to starve out competition especially fracking competition. The Saudis have the staying power and probably the least expensive costs to produce. Once the field has been reduced, they can come back and raise prices again.

    Another thing is that there is a lot of truth in the old sayings that the main cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. The reverse is probably true for low oil prices.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Do yourself a favor and ignore all that jazz. Reports like these are geared toward luring hapless retail rats into calling tops/bottoms. And you know what usually happens then…

  • SirDagonet

    It’s idle curiosity for me, not to indicate or support a trade idea…

  • Skidmarkalot

    Gee Whizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz, I have done several refreshes to see if Disqus is locked up. Seriously dead in here today.

  • BobbyLow

    The following has nothing to do with trading because price and only price is “the decider”. However, not having to fight for comment space allows an opportunity to share a real life story regarding alternative energy. 🙂

    I live in farm country here in the southeast and in 2010 an ethanol plant was constructed a few miles away from where I live at a cost of $100 Million Dollars. Over the next few months we all found the prices of food or anything that was made from corn to go through the roof. The ethanol made from corn also causes small engines to have a shorter lifespan and most motor vehicles to get worse gas mileage.

    I think it was sometime in 2011 or early 2012 when I drove by the plant and found that there was no activity going on. I later found out that the plant had closed in March of 2011 and filed for Bankruptcy. This plant was in operation for about a year and sat vacant until May of 2014 when it was sold for under $15 Million Dollars.

    So $85 Million Dollars (a lot of this taxpayer $) was smoked up the “Corn Cob Pipe” and a new firm now owns the plant along with the 500 Acres that it sits on for a bargain price. What eventually comes from this remains to be seen.

    In summary, this is only one plant and I wonder how many other ethanol plants experienced the same thing? This was a boon for the Large Agri corporations that made money planting corn. But along with higher food prices, taxpayers got screwed again and still have to deal with the 10% to 20% ethanol in our gas tanks.

    This Fracking business might be the real deal but I can only hope it has a better long term outcome than ethanol.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nobody’s stopping you from sharing charts 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Another example of government blowing tax payer money on hasty projects without any long term considerations.

  • Skynard

    Should see a reaction /NG 4.18, amazing move in the last 6 days.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mental M.
    at some point, you HAVE to take risk. there will be no guarantee.
    the task remains to do it with proper risk/reward.

  • BobbyLow

    No shit Dick Tracy. Where the fuck have you been? I’m running out of bull shit. We need you to fill in the gap. 🙂

  • topedge

    This is an interesting counter argument to what we hear in the ‘news’;

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-13/wall-streets-shale-fraud-exposed

  • BobbyLow

    Wouldn’t surprise me in the least. The older I get, when a new discovery comes out that claims to help us I can’t help but be suspicious.

    I wasn’t born with cynicism, it has been earned. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Allriiiiiigt. Glad to have you back GG. 🙂

    Also regarding the situation in Oil there still remains a contrast in styles here and not to say one is right or wrong. I normally prefer to buy strength and sell weakness as opposed to by at what I think is support and sell at what I think is resistance.

    And recently, I overruled my own inclination and bought what I thought was support and it cost me dearly. Fortunately I eventually hedged with some SCO and was net short until this morning and now I’m neutral until I see some buying going on.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I call it foot on the brake and gas at the same time. Very hard on the equipment and an expensive
    way to ease the emotions.

  • SirDagonet

    I wonder if the ethanol plant was another of King Hussein’s pet projects sorta like the $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra?

  • Skidmarkalot

    I complete the sell of my business, retire end of next year. I will get serious with sharing my thoughts then as I know currently I’m only a leach. (I will probably be a pain in your ass) I used to subscribe to your service but found it hard to spend the appropriate amount of time needed to keep myself out of trouble.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    Who knows? But I’m just thinking $115 Million here and $115 Million there and sooner or later that adds up to real money. 🙂

  • phylum

    “Why is the price of oil important? Because lower oil prices will be hugely beneficial for buyers; that’s consumers like you and me mostly.

    -According to MarketWatch, with ‘gas’ in the US under $3 a gallon — the cheapest it’s been since December 2010 — US consumers save $250 million a day. Lower oil prices are a trillion dollar boost to the US economy. It is difficult to think of anything that would have a bigger beneficial impact.

    –The mid 1980s oil price collapse kicked off a huge economic and stock market comeback. Oil prices were at 10 bucks per barrel back then. Low oil prices saw stronger stock markets. If oil prices stay low from here, it should prove hugely bullish for stocks over the longer term, too.”