POMO Update

I have not reported on POMO (The NY Fed’s Permanent Open Market Operations) for almost two months and since The Bernank has been a busy bee as of late I thought it was time for an update:

Chart first – and immediately apparent is that we are hovering above the zero mark clinging to about $7 Billion (assuming I manually entered all those auctions into Excel properly). But in general the days of easy liquidity are apparently over – or at least on hold for now. Please recall that, according to prior observations, it takes a reset to the zero mark to raise the odds for any medium to long term downside. And I have an inkling we’ll keep hovering around here for the remainder of the season. Of course you can expect an update on this if I see any evidence to the contrary.

However, the chart hides some curious details – here’s the tail end of my data panel:

When entering the data into Excel two salient observations appeared to be worthwhile sharing. For one this is the first time in a long time that I saw an entry in the Sale category – more specifically the last time I see one in my data is May 21st, 2008. Secondly what really surprised me were the accepted/submitted ratios, which are huge in comparisons with the ones in the Purchase category. Again, I wanted to be sure and went back to 2008 – and those apparently were much more in line with what we continue to see in the Purchase category.

So, is the Fed starting to actively drain the swamp? Maybe – maybe not. Volar just alerted me that the Fed is apparently not really ‘draining’ – just ‘relocating’ as in selling anything below the 3-year and buying anything between 7-20-year. But wouldn’t we see additional purchases then soon popping up as well? The POMO calendar suggests just that but we do see sales listed as well but expected sizes on the Sale side clearly outnumber the ones in the Purchase side. So, perhaps we’ll get to the zero mark so coveted by the bears after all. Again, if anyone has any more insights to share on this please use the comment section.

Have a great weekend!

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Friday, October 21st, 2011 at 3:41 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Anonymous

    here comes the ramp.

  • Anonymous

    Damn Mole  that is some sexy SEXY analysis. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Fed POMO 20-day rolling actually went negative on 10/12/2011. Doesn’t seem to have affected stocks though. Wonder what’s going on, probably some slight of hand we don’t understand. I’m a poet . . . 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Shorts covering ahead of this Franco-German weekend. They’re making more sausage across the pond. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro made another run at 1.39. Fell short again. Sunday night ought to be interesting . . . 

  • Anonymous

    arrggh.  Closed the longs too soon.  Still – green and clean is better than exposed and nervous!

  • Anonymous

    perched

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Owed you that much after screwing up Volar’s seasonality chart.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Please reload this page – more insights added on the bottom.

  • Anonymous

    Guys where did the vix close today?  Outside the BB?

  • volar

     hey mole (previous thread)

    i totally dig ANY of that moon analysis. If Carolan has thoughts LMK. totally different than my work, but it is certainly creditable IMO.

    I have ran the data from 2000-2008 (long and short), but some of it is just over my head, tho I do think there is an edge…

    maybe i re-kick start that side project this weekend?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You can reach him at chris@[his domain] – if you’re lucky he’ll write you back (he’s a bit reclusive).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I see 32.85 – not even near any of the boundaries.

  • Anonymous

    New post!

  • Anonymous

    1.39 GG! (twice!)

  • Anonymous

    Mole, I owe you guys for gearing my head right.

  • Anonymous
  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear



    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. NinjaTrader
    Kinetick

    search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. The Slow Walk-Down
    2. It Keeps Going And Going And….
    3. The Bots Are Back!
    4. An Impending Trend Shift?
    5. Fade The Noise – Play The Game
    6. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    7. Painful Ping Pong
    8. Volatility Tales
    9. Rational Ambivalence
    10. Thursday Morning Briefing