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Post Market Musings
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Post Market Musings

by The MoleApril 27, 2010

Now this was a fun day – although bananaben would probably disagree. Sorry buddy!! You’ll snap back from this!

Well, to the bears I now give the same advice I would give to that 40 year old virgin. Dude, you better close the deal this time! 😉

This is why – we closed far outside the 2.0 BB on Mr. VIX. But the worse news is that the LOWER border of that BB is now extending a lot further down. Good luck seeing a push below 14 anytime soon – sheeesh. The bears better make this one work, ladies and leeches…

More short term – check out the divergence we saw on the Zero Lite:

Yes, we prefer to see those intra-day and a lot can happen overnight. However, it’s reasonable to assume that Ben and cronies may hold some kind of emergency session overnight and that we might see some push back tomorrow morning. Now that said – more longer term it’s interesting that we reversed right here and now:

Plenty of charts below for subscribers – Evil Speculator Gold will set you back a whopping 29 bucks – less than you handed your Starbucks barista this week 😉

Oooh – she looks like she’s going to hurt you if you don’t know the difference between a Venti and a Grande – I like her….

That’s right – we bounced right off the 61.8% fib line.

We also bounced off the 78.6% fib line on the COMPQ – coincidence I think not!

I’m sure you are all familiar with the concept of ATR – Average True Range. Look how we seem to push up just before we paint a meaningful retracement. And that divergence is getting stronger each time around. It’s another expression of increasing volatility and that is something we want to see ahead of a retracement.

BUT – will it happen tomorrow? Not sure – the Zero Lite is telling me that there is a good chance for a snap back, which hopefully will be manhandled by the bears and that within a day or two. If not – well, then all we’ll see is yet another buying opportunity. I for one am sick of seeing green/white candles.

UPDATE 8:40pm EDT: Bonus chart!

Copper futures are painting a little divergence. It’s not a massive one, granted but considering the big picture it’s yet another clue.

Have fun storming the castle!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • yudhisthira

    Awesome. I suppose there is someway to count a triple zigzag from mar 2009, but I will stick with zero for now.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    mole
    agree that we are seeing evidence of a snap back rally. also in the Russel.
    My opinion is that that snap back price may or may not exceed the prior high

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, that comment addressed short term traders that can get killed by a snap back in the VIX. If you are long term short then it's worth holding on to long term puts as more ugliness (i.e. bearish beauty) might be in the works.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Nice spot on the ATR – another one for the StockCharts bookmarks folder…

    Bottom line: we closed below the SPX trendline from March 09 (according to my chart); on the other hand, a few of those have come and gone before…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We keep amassing a nice collection there 😉

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    ok I get ya.
    good news is we pushed the bulls back below your Maginot line pretty far!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole thanks for the post.. one of the best posts ever at ES.. This has nothing to do with the bearishness… but more to do with the timeliness of your post.. Clearly shows that you are looking out for your visitors. Thanks

  • randomwalker

    Proof that GS is manipulating POG (they own a large chunk of gld):

    Inbox'd this morn'g – Not necessarily the news

    NORFOLK, VIRGINIA (The Borowitz Report) – Eleven indicted Somali pirates dropped a bombshell in a U.S. court today, revealing that their entire piracy operation is a subsidiary of banking giant Goldman Sachs.

    There was an audible gasp in the courtroom when the leader of the pirates announced, “We are doing God’s work. We work for Lloyd Blankfein.”

    The pirate, who said he earned a bonus of $48 million in dubloons last year, elaborated on the nature of the Somalis’ work for Goldman, explaining that the pirates forcibly attacked ships that Goldman had already shorted.

    “We were functioning as investment bankers, only every day was casual Friday,” the pirate said.

    The pirate acknowledged that they merged their operations with Goldman in late 2008 to take advantage of the more relaxed regulations governing bankers as opposed to pirates, “plus to get our share of the bailout money.”

    In the aftermath of the shocking revelations, government prosecutors were scrambling to see if they still had a case against the Somali pirates, who would now be treated as bankers in the eyes of the law.

    “There are lots of laws that could bring these guys down if they were, in fact, pirates,” one government source said. “But if they’re bankers, our hands are tied.”

    SEE? Theyre paying bonuses in gold doubloons!

  • ricebowl

    Holy shit. Link?

  • ricebowl

    Nevermind. Sounds like it came off of theonion.com. Really funny.

  • randomwalker
  • raised_by_wolves

    Damn, that's hilarious, and, damn son, look at gold. A new high was put in on my 90-day chart with the thrust over that ChartPeriodVWAP (3.0) squiggle. I didn't even know it.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Why did it not occur to me to check GLD intraday when I had this bad ass cliff diving $SPX/GLD line in front of me the whole time?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Too much SLV and not enough LSD, I think.

  • yudhisthira

    I stopped short when I noticed this the other day.

    The randomly generated license plate on my '98 Expedition reads VIX 850.
    No decimal point, so I don't know what this infallible sign means.

  • gsavli

    lol, seriously?

  • rosocecasita

    Woah

    that = Rome is Burning.

  • Scoops

    5 waves down. Snapback is more than likely here.

  • rosocecasita

    Almost a Negative Correlation today…

    And Gold is Up when DX is Up.

    Tell me that an't a fucking shot across the bow. I'm thinking about buying some gold and silver today infact.

  • Onorio

    EURJPY down +50 pips AH, tonight should be fun…at this point EUR is bellow 1.3 before tomorrow morning.

  • omelette

    stopped short? with a sign like that I would think you would start shorting.. =p

  • randomwalker

    Yesson, I hate it when GS and Paulson are getting rich off volatility..they own the biggest chunks of gld

    I heard Paulson's hedge fund investors are locked in to gld for three years..and gld market cycle model indicates it is topping right now should be heading down soon..to maybe 800-900?

    Anyways my puts on XGD.to should do ok, cause thats in strg primary downtrd, but GG puts might go against me for awhile cs its in weaker primary dntrd!
    I hate SLV..but it looks like it will start a strg untrd next month

    Just thought this was a hilarious reflection of GS

  • yudhisthira

    Yeah, the irony that I did not notice that before now. Is that 8.5 or 85. or 850 like it says?

  • OldChicago

    On snap-back, GS rebounded at the open and stayed up all day with good volume. This could be buy-the-news bounce, unless we have more bad news from Europe, the market probably paid the due on the GS hearing.

    Can anyone take a count on GS? No clear if 5 wave down from 185 is done or if it is still at wave 4 here. If GS turns up, it'll probably pulled financial with it.

  • yudhisthira

    How could a sign like that fail?

  • gsavli

    but 850 of course, just like it says. but this one is really rotflmao :)

  • Tronacate

    Does every CEO of Goldman have to have a speech impediment???……..Blankfein sounds like a fag

  • raised_by_wolves

    Today, there were some noticeable glitches in the Matrix.

    Tomorrow morning make sure to check the gold-to-silver, er (as I prefer to express it with the risk asset first) silver-to-gold ratio. It's right on the daily 208 MA. When it crosses, sometimes nothing uber dramatic happens (unless you count a head fake as uber dramatic). Other times . . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • anotherone

    How does the copper index look? Is it confirming the move down?

  • rosocecasita

    Dood, don't be insulting to the gays.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I haven't check the copper index, but I have been watching copper futures.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    The price action is right on the daily ChartPeriodVWAP (1.0) squiggle. If the bulls can just push it back above . . . or if they can let it go down a little to regain control of it in that price zone associated with low volume and not let it go down any further and then push it back above. . . .

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y_J77RO-wY mmrmnhrm

    Mole, could I ask you to do a public post of your “really big picture” wave count? I'm by no means an expert at EWT, but just playing around with Yahoo's interactive flash charts, coupled with your belief (today's drop notwithstanding) that things are still looking upwards short/medium term, I'm thinking we might still be in P2, not P3. To see what I'm getting at (since I don't know how to post pics of my own), call the market peak of Oct 07 as the beginning of the downward cycle. The Mar 09 lows become the end of P1. Since then, we're been on P2, with the retrace somewhere around 1300 (support in 1Q08, then resistance in 3Q08). That level would also be right around the spot for a really long-term inverse H&S pattern.

  • amokta

    as i predicted EWI have released an interim STU update today:

    “This Special Tuesday Update has to be very brief since I have an appointment outside of the office.”
    anyway what they are saying is that todays decline eliminates triangularity and diagonal endingness.
    they are saying decline seems part of 5 waves so might be part of 'c' of an xpanded flat & to expect an upward drift once it bottoms over next day or 2. Any decline below 1170 spx, would suggest there is something more bearish going on in the markets (than an xpanded flat)

    -sometimes we dont give EWI enough credit. at least they provide a lot of analysis for the fee they charge. Now whether or not their output is helpful for trading/making money is a separate matter

  • n2thezonez

    “eliminates triangularity and diagonal endingness.”

    If nothing else, that's a phrase I don't think I've heard before!

  • Tronacate

    Sorry…….he speaks with a lisp.

  • n2thezonez

    It is a clear 5 waves, without knowing if the 5th wave is complete. I covered shortly after the 3rd wave ended and did not re-enter.

    I'm interested to see what follows – 1. More decline? 2. An abc upmove to set up another big declining wave (similar to what was scene over the last 2 days)? 3. or was this an A-wave of a developing ABC correction.

    Note, I'm not an EWT expert, don't know all the rules and don't chart the minute elements, but I do find it useful to think about 5-legged and 3-legged moves.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    shameless scam artists

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    he meant it as a compliment

  • amokta

    i did not want to quote verbatim, as its copyright, hence rephrased – must pay some respect to them

  • Tronacate

    Blankface needs a slap to his bald head. What a professional lier.

  • anotherone

    Thanks. I meant copper futures.

  • amokta

    please have some respect, he is doing gods work.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    david.. watch spx:gold and then say with me… “bob is a fine EWTer but he hasn't got the hang for fiat fuelled madness”

    I use EWT (and my hamsters and rats) for my reasonings, and I believe that EWT presents forms for choice moments, furthermore I said over and over againthat “they use EWT” (specialy at choice moments) to twist this market as bonsai on viagra

    Praise the bOb within

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how would you talk if you spent all your time screwing custumers and the people regardless os gender, race or creed?

  • OldChicago

    God may in fact teaching him a lesson for identity theft.

  • amokta

    just watching c-span3. im feeling a bit sorry for lloyd. why are they harassing him. he sems human after all. why does he talk funny.

  • OldChicago

    Thanks. Just got it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm not sure if I should be flattered or insulted. Tough choice…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Will do next weekend, cool? If you aren't a sub you should have access to it sometime Monday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Check out the new update.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “eliminates triangularity and diagonal endingness”

    LMAO :-))

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, as a simple hamster I'll just comment on the vix chart, yes we are outside, but one day we must start riding the upper bollinger and reverse this rally.

    Does it mean hamster says P3? No, the jury is still out on wether p3 is past, ongoing or is still ahead (at least for me and I know Mole has his own count a bit firmer than mine)

    Even if still ahead this could well be something else

    battlegrounds… bounce points ;
    right here spx 1181
    then 1135 to 1155
    next 1085 to 1095
    nicer 1028
    nicest 945

    I WILL NOT CRY w5 or WAVE 5 (and certainly not P3) before 945 is broken with style and panache

    SPX bounced close to ma13 spx1183

    BPSPX is holding above ma13 by inches

    SPX:VIX is inches from ma208 and in january/february “they” fought and won at that line… so this is close to bottom or reversal on the centenial we're between (just above) ma40weeks and the resistence that had failled but held close enough of ma468w and ma208w… 468 weeks, business cycle refused the move up twice (in spite of strong punctures these last weeks)

    SPX:GOLD held between ma208 and ma104 and right at lower bb13… even if it doesn't bounce, even then, have you enjoyed the 2009 august to december drop? or the 2005 to 2006 massacre? thought so….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well folks – just because Hochberg does crappy EWT it shouldn't keep us from doing a better job.

    BTW, Prechter does NOT do the STU – it's Hochberg. I actually appreciate/respect Prechter's long term views a lot more.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well 945 is 200 handles down. That would probably be where Intermediate 1 would bounce, so even if P3 would start tomorrow (which I doubt strongly) I don't think we'll see that level breached until sometime late this year. I know – it sucks – but we are running out of time. The bears had an opportunity early this year and wussed out – they now have to live with the consequences.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sorry if I wasn't clear, i was saying that even Hoch is not too bad, but the fiat money and money or nothing and hookers for free is killing those that use standard rules

    but we must find the baby and remove him before throwing out the water

    I do not believe all rules aply (even some of the most sacred) under current market manipulation, nevertheless I try to salvage what EWT brings

    Credo in unum Elliott, Patrem omnipotentem, factorem caeli et TA, visibilium omnium et invisibilium.
    Et in unum Dominum EWT Filium Dei unigenitum.
    Et ex Patre natum ante omnia saecula.
    Deum de Deo, lumen de lumine, Deum verum de Deo vero.
    Genitum, non factum, consubstantialem Patri : per quem omnia facta sunt.
    Qui propter nos homines, et propter nostram salutem decendit de caelis.
    Et incarnatus est de Mole ex Bob Virgine : Et homo factus est.
    Crucifixus etiam pro nobis : sub GS passus, et sepultus est.
    Et resurrexit tertia onda, secundum Scripturas.
    Et descendit in SPX : sedet ad dexteram Patris.
    Et iterum venturus est cum gloria, judicare Bulls et FED : cujus regni non erit finis.
    Et in Spiritum sanctum, Dominum, et vivificantem : qui ex Patre Filioque procedit.
    Qui cum Patre et Filio simul adoratur, et conglorificatur : qui locutus est per Prophetas Hochberg.
    Et unam, sanctam, catholicam, et apostolicam Institutum EWI.
    Confiteor unum baptisma in remissionem peccatorum.
    Et expecto resurrectionem P3. Et vitam venturi saeculi.

    Amen.

  • yudhisthira

    From my Molecool lesson archives:
    $nyupv:$nydnv still in triangularity-ness.

    http://screencast.com/t/MTg0ODcxNW

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    please – Prechter had the same long term view for over 30 years now

    it is not the system that stinks – it usually people who interpret it

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    wow
    now in Russian please

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “the bears had an opportunity”

    Mole, we didn't have a chance, charge of the light brigade… horses against machine guns

    we had “likely turn moments”, “pay now or pay extra latter moments”, but as long as someone wants to charge everithing on this world's VISA Platinum….

    we had confirmed breaches, Plunge Protection did god's work

    we had resistences that were BULLdozed

    I think we're already on downtrend on SPX:GOLD, but even there…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you know it, the orthodox use the same 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and there are days where i think that from 1990's onwards this was all a fake…

    expanding on expanding diagonals, bubly future for eternity or until it busts, double or nothing and everytime the sucker loses

  • ricebowl

    When I was in San Juan on a business trip a while ago, I saw the license plate 4BSM666.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    all I know is
    Ibi bene ibi patria

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, you got a point – I thought about that when i was typing my message. But it takes two to tango. Someone who does the squeezing and the other who's getting squeezed. The bears have been ultra quick covering positions and that is not helping their case.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I fyou think that during the crash of 1907 (credit crunch as well – banks did not lend money in NYSE Money Pit to Brokers) when the Great J.P.Morgan saved the stock market (which he personally was so short that any shorter and he'll be eunuch) and financial system by forcing banks to use reserves when they already maxed out, so if you think that anything was different 100 years ago – you are not fit for real life…I know I am not…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Mad Russian out

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and how you're doing? still feeling american?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    mole, we (small retail traders) can only ride the waves created by sharks, it's the big HF that must hold shorts longer, not tiny hamster and little mole (no offense meant)

    p.s. I'm 2/3 short and 1/3 cash since I closed (too early) my MBI's

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    there were limits, you had to cover in gold if there was a run….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Crazy hamster Out

  • skynard

    Many bearish patterns have been confirmed and sell signals given on the charts. Where is that Sh^rk dude when you need him? Well, IMO the market is in position to tank big time. Will be looking for weekly signal but we are at the tipping point. Will be looking at potential retracement for Fag day……or rather Fed day to load up. Good Luck to all. By the way, has anyone heard from Fa_q?

  • yudhisthira

    For any doubters out there, here is the signal for some indeterminate time in the future.
    Depending on my infallible unfolding wave count:
    http://screencast.com/t/OTY5NzU0YTc

    Nothing says Midwest like a KU Jayhawk bumper hitch.

  • ricebowl

    SH^RK never contributed anything useful.

  • ricebowl

    ?? ???????? ?? ?????? ??????

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y_J77RO-wY mmrmnhrm

    Thanks, Mole. Not a sub yet, being laid off hurts the pockets, but it does give plenty of time for, as you call it, mental masturbation.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Alright – freeloaders – please reload this page as I just opened it up to everyone.

  • Sleepynaptime

    Thanks Mole! If I knew how to say it in German, I would.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How about: Vielen Dank!

    To which I would respond: Bitte schön! :-)

  • gsavli

    yea, that google translate is just so unreliable 😉

  • Sleepynaptime

    Dies ist so einfach, auch ich kann es tun!

  • Onorio

    Bounced right @ 38.2% level….

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZmY0YjkzNTAt

    Shit…this really don`t look like a bull market

  • Onorio

    DAX seem to be confirming that yesterday move was just the beginning of a extended 3rd wave.

    Too big to fail now move to sovereign state, but who`s bailing out now?

  • chronographics

    CaC doesn't look too clever either 😉

  • Onorio

    DAX erased 26 days of gains in just 2 LMAO

  • chronographics

    Yes been a while coming, but think Bears still need to be quick on their feet, market needs to do a lot more before I am convinced the rally is over for the year…
    I am still short EUR cut my short Cable wish it had been the other way lol think at some point there is a BIG bounce when we complete the five down and it will be nasty given the amount of shorts around.

  • spudthorpe

    Wow, that makes me miss Star Control 2. That has got to be my favorite game of all time.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Being steadfast in taking losses on the short side has also not worked too well this year….bears have been robbed and well trained at the same time. Lack of boldness will be the bane of many.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    hardworking though…

  • Onorio

    Question : Will FOMC kill the EUR today?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX 15 mins…looks like we may be entering 4th wave? BUT..is it iv of 3, or 4? http://www.screencast.com/t/ZGVhZGM0YT

  • skynard

    Thanks Bro! Your work is 1st class!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks boss, BTW, you did answer to my post but not to my comments/indicators. any thoughts on that one?

  • amokta

    uk bank stocks clawing back up. I do believe yesterdays drop was just a fibbonaci-fakeout.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    short covering..or bottom picking…(smelly)….if mkts were “normal” it is short covering…but based on last few big daily drops could snowball into “a buy the dip” rally. Let's see how panicky the “bears” and “bulls” are..

  • Onorio

    ES wave structure seem complete, 5 waves down with one extended 3rd.

    Like zero sugested we should have a bounce, IMO to ES 1195/1200 area.

  • Onorio

    By the way, Portuguese stock indice just erased a 6.5% loss…INSANE

  • raised_by_wolves

    You're saying 6.5% down followed by 6.5% up?

  • Onorio

    Gap down 5%, down +1.5% followed by 6.5 up…pretty insane no?

  • roncofooddehydrator

    We dropped down to the 30 day EMA on the $SPX yesterday but didn't break through (in fact, we closed right on). Looks like we're bouncing this morning which would put us between the 30 EMA (1183) and the 5 EMA (will probably be around 1192 when we open). If we close above the 5 EMA it's a good time to go back long. Below the 30 EMA and we can start looking at the lower bollinger band at 1166.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    here's the next wave of short covering….

  • bobthehorse

    I am looking for a Estoxx move to 2800 to reload on shorts

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Forgot to mention that on the 2 hr chart of /ES, the 200 EMA proved to be overhead resistance yesterday, and it's at 1192 right now. We just closed the last candle above the 5 EMA, which means we are probably looking at moving back up to test that 1192.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    What did I say that will make you feel insulted bro? It was supposed to be pure flattery.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    /ES 1195

    I am DavidDT and I approve this message

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    are not you suppose to have bonus access to premium content since you are busting your chops moderating this very busy place with ruthless people?

  • Onorio

    I was looking at FTSE and seem like it finish a flat since 16/04…not good for bears.

  • Onorio

    Hey Gmak, like me most of people here miss your coments! C`mon quit the dramas.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Portugal… what can't we do?

  • shortcover

    premarket pop expected…now we just need to see selling into it for balance of day…

  • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y_J77RO-wY mmrmnhrm

    If you want to play again, download “Ur-Quan Masters” from SourceForge :)

  • FranceHasTheBomb

    We've gone from a broken clock to a missing clock. Where's gmak?

  • skynard

    bobthehorse,

    Thanks for your insight. STOXX has exceeded your snapback point slightly. Do you see selling from here? Looks that way, you may have a good reentry on that one.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    had a bad day, freaked out a bit, but don't count him MIA yet.

  • yossarian_rules

    Ya, Gmak is missed. Cmon, life is short, write what u gotta write.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you wish!

  • bobthehorse

    Second that – come on Gmak. Don't pull a here today, gann tomorrow on us.

  • captainboom

    I'd like gmak to return. I miss the commentary.

  • skynard

    SPX 15 min having problems holding up. It seems to me that we may drop to the 1177-78 area to form a positive div before we rally back to 1200 or so. What do ya think?

  • gsavli

    buy buy buy

  • skynard

    SLV taking a hit today.

  • ricebowl

    Hahaha…

    /ES 1195 is pretty aggressive, but it's only a hair higher than my target of SPX 1197.

  • bobthehorse

    I went flat yesterday, am currently positioned flat. There is going to be a lot of intra-day volatility depending on what newsflows we get, esp with Fed tonight. Unless the risk-reward is good, best to stay away. I think it is going lower but the hourly is showing a hammer pattern so I'd like to see the over-sold condition resolve itself before getting involved again.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Dow chart..looks like this move could go to 10850/10740 and then rally to possibly a new high (fits with 1270 projections from various sources) ..apologies for crude EW labels..
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NGI5ZjNlM2E

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The charts above are to no use to you?

  • shortcover

    wrote some july 8 cov calls for UNG, jan 22 cov calls for QID…keep 'em comin' boys…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I tried to fix the link but now its really screwed up – sorry!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    seems ok..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Maybe it's my iTampon then.

  • marcopolo101520

    you are killing us sometimes…then bring us back to ecstasy…we always take bread with butter or potatoes with sausage same thing with you and gmak, you with the charts he with the clock, eye-ear coordination, tick-bang-tock-bum
    you two are gtting back together?
    probably you guys are for us the hotest male couple around here, start the orgy again. gmak, you copy that too? mole, come on!

    we the evil perverts…need this

    my 1 and only post for today. Since yesterday I am small long, hedged. monkey bussiness until 2:25 then is fed kicking GSballs one way or another.

  • marcopolo101520

    deliciously evil

  • bobthehorse

    Looks like my Estoxx 2800 target should coincide around 1200 or just under on ESM0. Would be quite a nice Fibo retracement of the move as well. So far, it's looking like we have just done quite a nice 1-2-3 down move and are currently in a 4 up. It's trading that way as well, i.e. bloody choppy. 2800 would be a 38.2% of the entire move and a 50% retracement of the 3rd wave. Clearly then looking for a big 5th down.

    There you go Mole – a nod to EWT for you. Still think Prechter's a moron though. Re: the Gmak debate – I thnk it's silly really. I'm not a big EWT guy, from a theoretical perspective I love it and I got quite in to it about 10 years ago but ultimately I felt too much time is spent trying to calculate exact levels, not on P&L. I like the basic construct – the key is knowing what wave you are in and the characteristics of that wave. In a 3rd, let it run, in a 4th scalp like crazy, etc. but any more than that and I find it inhibits me.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    mole, they are and you know it (BTW, nice seeing a freshly updated long term count)

    but they miss the broken clock, hey, you noticed it was fun and useful and you invited gmak… now they're on cold turkey 😉

    p.s. as i mentioned before, not your fault at all (on this case you gave gmak all the latitude and it was him that snaped)

  • gsavli

    be sure to tell us, when you will decide to go short.

  • amokta

    i sold my etf long TNA at open. did i do the right thing?

  • bobthehorse

    I've already told you. In advance.

  • Tronacate

    Nice TL break on NQ 240 min………should lead weakness……..

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agree with you on how to surf the waves.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    As Charles de Gaulle said: The graveyards are full of indispensable men.

    Life and the tape goes on, irrespective of gmak and Mole. Besides, as traders the last thing you want is to settle into comfort zone. That kills you for sure – the market has a panache for rooting out folks with a routine. Take this as an opportunity to dig up some of that early morning info and to post it here 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure yet – may be a fake out. Hey, why is there such a huge border?

  • amokta

    Judging by the anaemic response, on inx, we will have doji day (not sure what that means), or a sell-off big style later on. Today is not a day for huge gains.

  • Tronacate

    I was in a hurry……sorry

  • rae17

    Choppy, choppy day. Went long on /ES and got out with a small gain. Things will probably explode later as soon as I leave my computer.

  • marcopolo101520
  • bobthehorse

    Well one of my money flow research providers is saying that yesterday was the first material evidence of a trend change since 666. A major inflection point in money flow. Not to be ignored.

  • Tronacate

    Broadening wedge target area on the NQ

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • skynard

    WTF was that?

  • rosocecasita

    indeed, wtf was that?

  • rosocecasita

    Fuck YA GOLD Bitches! (& Silver!)

  • OldChicago

    Sharp drop on Euro. Hmm??

    FYI – http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/

  • skynard

    Dollar rallying now!

  • FranceHasTheBomb

    S&P downgraded Spain.

  • skynard

    Sweet!

  • bobthehorse

    Bit annoying – not sure if I'll get my 2800 now. Thanks S&P. Still, glad I'm not long. This might be a do nothing until next week situation now.

  • OldChicago

    The rating agencies were an escape goat in yesterday's GS hearing. I can imagine that they will be next on the chopping block. This could explain, somewhat, S&P is trying to be “diligent” now. Perhaps FED is watching S&P rating too.

  • rosocecasita

    Thanks mate =)

  • skynard

    Nice FN move!

  • skynard

    1177 here we come!

  • Turps

    That was a neat little stop hunt on the SPX wasn't it.

  • skynard

    Institutions are unloading on this shit!

  • Onorio

    “Who`s Euro?”

    “Euro is dead baby…”

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    who's next? UK? Italy? that would be major…

  • amokta

    i bought some AGQ at 60.3, its now 62. should i sell? (silver is very fickle – trade it on a day-to-day basis only)

  • bananaben

    Totally agree – hedge funds definitely are. Already established a 50% short position on TZA.

  • FranceHasTheBomb

    I'm keeping my eye on Malta.

  • rosocecasita

    Aye, Trin says this is again, Real selling, not short selling.

  • amokta

    Ok whose causing the all the problems in Eurpoe. I blame the Germans.
    (only joking, we dont want another war, mind you Prechter says wars/socail unrest are a feature of major bear markets?)

  • skynard

    Keep it up folks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Because we don't want to bail everyone out? Funny thing is that just last year the Greeks demanded war reparations from Germany. You can imagine that the mood is not exactly conducive to doing the Greeks any favors – especially since the Germans (myself included) feel very strongly about corruption and disorganization.

    Anyway, I know you meant it as a joke. This whole Greek drama is starting to get to me though – as I said two months ago – they'll stretch this thing all the way out into the summer.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Back in the game. Atta boy!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    S&P downgrades the planet earth. Martian bond holders are outraged over GS corruption and have unleashed their massive space attack force.

  • amokta

    Agree entirely. Yes, some countries need to get their act together re corruption etc

  • ShankyS

    Mole – you have a new lurker. I thought you were gone? Glad you are back. I really love the work here. Super fantastic stuff and some of the best on the web. Lot's I can learn here. Thanks for all your hard work. The honor is mine.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    can anyone see a spring coilling?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    politicians, central bankers..by keeping the people misinformed, and promoting the “buy today, pay later..(never)” culture..and majority of people are…”sheep”le…so easily led…just read a history book!

  • fisheggs

    A matter of time before UK & Ireland get the finger from Fitch SnP & Moodys

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    wellcome shankyS, you also have a nice place of your own, feel free to share your findings here as well

    best regards

  • ricebowl

    And continents. Whoops, did I say that?

  • ShankyS

    TY

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you're wellcome

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    planet earth habitat are fat lazy stupid not to understand what the heck martians are talking about – we still have genetically modified chicken to eat – we fine – thank you for using vaseline

  • amokta

    Back to the markets, which way are we going.
    What is the implication of sovereign debt issues to stocks (is it a more protean issue, if economy bad/govt cuts spending, people get paid less/out of work/less disposable income—stocks down)

  • ricebowl

    Not a clue. I'm sitting in cash. I had an 1197+ target like everyone else here. Who knows what comes next? Today I got bent over the table when Spain got downgraded. I'm too jaded to trade right now.

    IMO Euro problems won't have a huge immediate impact on US markets because bond investors will flee to US debt pushing yields back down. My office mate made the comment earlier that his 401K bond fund shot up significantly yesterday. I have not been watching the treasury yields, but I'd be willing to bet that they're dropping right now as Eurozone becomes perceived as being risky. The immediate fallout from Eurozone that I would expect in US markets is volatility and a strengthening dollar — neither of which are news to anyone here.

    Longer-term it should go without saying that this turd of a market isn't going to be able to stay afloat.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    it will come
    1195

  • gsavli

    well, in which direction?

  • amokta

    Cheers. Lets see what happens. Will read todays end-of-day ewi STU!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just so happens that Shanky is a kick ass chart tamer himself. Lurkers like that I can handle! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Welcome! Good to see you here. Write me a private message to admin at evilspeculator dot com.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know!, that's why i said he had a nice lair of his own and that he was free to do more than lurk and also share his views right here

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thta's the million dollar question

    IMHO we could use a drop

  • ShankyS

    LOL you been smoking the Fed's stash again. But that's cool. Now pass that shit over here. I need all the help I can get dealing with this POS market.

  • ShankyS

    done. be easy one me. I'm not used to conversing with greatness.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You mean that kind of volatility isn't an everyday occurrence? 😉

    What has happened since then?