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Pray For Confirmation
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Pray For Confirmation

by The MoleOctober 13, 2010

Alright, you bears asked for a glimmer of hope and tonight I finally can deliver something. But you better start praying to your favorite deity right now.

That’s right, start praying for confirmation tomorrow (not Friday or Monday) – because without it you bears are looking at a pretty meager X-Mas this season. Pass the dry bread please!

I left half an hour before the market closed today and at that time Mr. VIX was still below yesterday’s close. But I just checked and it seems that we indeed closed back inside that 2.0 BB. Now, as some of you remember, this close inside represents a 2nd step toward an equities sell signal (or VIX buy).

For the noobs – here are the rules:

For a $VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events:

  1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) – check!
  2. A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal – check!
  3. A higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.

So we still need a higher close for confirmation. Without confirmation no cookies – let’s be clear on that. That doesn’t mean the tape can’t go lower but the ‘odds’ are not as good – simple.

You all know I have become quite cautious when it comes to predicting bearish tape, especially since the daily Zero has been flat as a flounder as of late. But that does not mean I will dismiss any bearish evidence I come across. If we get confirmation tomorrow it will bestow an opportunity for the shorts – whether or not they can turn this into a meaningful correction with a dozen POMOs scheduled ahead of the midterm elections is of course another story.

See you on the other side – let’s hope we’ll see some fireworks tomorrow.

Cheers,

Mole

P.S.: Anyone who asks me a dumb question about those VIX rules will be shot on the spot. Plus his/her entire family will be enslaved in a North Korean work camp. You have been warned.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Tooncez

    Apparently Cuba and Hispaniola hadn't yet ceded from the Union when that map was drawn.

  • yudhisthira

    I'll go for the Sanskrit Om symbol for now. Two vix closes outside BB before today.

    Finally went from crackberry to Samsung Android on Sprint this week.
    Really like the ease of blowing up detail of zero png on touch screen.

  • convictscott

    Is there decent charting available for android yet. I'd switch from my blackberry but the esignal charting on it is very very good for a mobile device.

  • Tooncez

    Is this supposed to be tested in log scale or linear?

  • yudhisthira
  • yudhisthira

    So far I have TDAmeritrade TOS for android, but it is unreadable because the font size is not customizable yet.

    I have better luck with IStockManager. Simple realtime charts, no TA, but readable.
    It's connected to TDAm for trading.

    I don't see that esignal is available for android yet.

  • yudhisthira

    Actually, I just noticed the Android version of TOS has all the studies available.
    Jeez. Going to have to look at these.

  • lunch_and_dinner

    Maybe after the US election the currancy wars can start. At least then the spx can goto zero.

  • BobbyLow

    Convict Scott

    I'm replying to your post from the last thread.

    “I blew up my account on six consecutive occasions before I became profitable. Blew up completely.”

    Well I'm close to number 3. I'm not completely blown up but I did some very serious damage to my account. So much so that I really, really have to #1. Manage Risk (R), #2. Not run through any stops, and above all go back to #1.

    Regarding Bollinger Bands on a regular trade, I have them on my charts and pay attention to whether price is in Lower half, Middle or Upper Half but hanging at the Top or the Bottom is something that I've never paid much attention to perhaps because for me the Bands always seem to stretch when I don't want them to. I pay more attention to the ADX and AROON. But I think we all have indicators that seem to work well with some traders and not so well with others.

    “What I'm interested in is other trader's plans on how to trade this to the long side, how to manage stops in this environment, etc. It seems we are at an unusual juncture, which requires an unusual trading plan.”

    As I said earlier, I have really done a lot of damage to my account so much so that I've broken down through the critical $25K Level and that puts pressure on the number of Day Trades I can make per week and that's extra pressure that I don't need. At one time I had a choice in the matter but I now have insufficient capital to Trade Currencies or Futures. So I've basically gone to trading Daily Charts based on 3 Simple Moving Averages and the indicators mentioned above. These Moving Averages need to be in a Bow Tie to enter into a trade. If the Bow Tie breaks in ANY way, the trade is Stopped Out or if the fast MACD which is set to 3/10/16 (Radske Thanks) crosses the 0 line in the opposite direction of the trade, the trade is Stopped Out.

    “Long entry management. Do not run a time based stop loss, ie price has unlimited time to get to target. Stop remains at inital stop loss until a new spike low is formed. Stop moves up to each sucessive spike low.”

    I've already addressed some of this and for me keeping it simple appears to be the best for me. In a way, information overload has kind of fucked me or I should say I've fucked myself with it so I need to go back to the KISS method and that's what I'm doing.

    You asked how other traders are trading to the Long Side. I've already mentioned that I have an Open Short Position of the S&P 500 Short ETF SH which then becomes a Long. This different kind of Long would probably not allow me to sleep at night if after being Short forever to finally go Long and have the Market Gap down 40 Points and then get shafted going the other way. So on todays bounce, I added an equal amount of Long November Calls so that in the event of a massive hit in the market between now and November 19th, I would be able to exercise my Calls and cover my Short – Short ETF. If this happens it would have cost me a little over a dollar per share.

    OTOH, if we get a manageable sell off then the Short – Short ETF would hit my Stop and I would let the Calls Run for as long as they can.

    So this is my plan for this particular trade. It is being run on a daily chart and might get stopped out soon or it could run for a month. I'll let the tape decide. I'm also looking for a turn in the dollar as I might not be able to trade currencies directly but I certainly can trade UUP. Also at some point in time, DBA might be a good short. Neither of these two fit my entry requirements yet but they are on my watch list.

    I'll close by saying that I just peeked at the ES Futures and see that they are up $5.00 at 10:05 PM. Wow. 🙂

  • http://twitter.com/MNtweetes MNtweetes
  • randomtrader

    in both of his scenarios he predicts a return back to or near highs of today if today was the top… who knows. The way the dollar is selling off tonight is a bit concerning, curious to see if it finds support at its weekly trendline around 76.40ish, if it does I may consider shorting equities

  • convictscott

    Does it do futures and currencies as well?

  • convictscott

    And the esignal product for iphone and ipad is so bad its disgraceful. Not reccommended.

  • Anonymous

    RBW, is there anything special about the ES sitting in the top of the BBs. Does it mean 50/50 breakout-breakdown?

    http://tinyurl.com/283bezh

  • convictscott

    Bobby, sounds like you are well on the way to turning things around 🙂 As a general proposition losses make me hungrier and make me work on my game… wins make me sloppy.

    I got the idea about price being embedded in the top of the bollinger bands from bollinger's book, where he talks about how once price becomes embedded at the top of a band the odds favour it staying there.

    I've tried trading with a lot of different methods… Ivan's pattern setups, Linda Radches setups (her turtle soup one in particular), Tom Demark's indicators (which are brilliant in a creepy way but I cant understand the logic behind them) , Al Brooks price action which is superb from brookepriceaction.com, the masterthegap.com stuff (which is superb) and simple macd stuff with the “impulse system” from alexander elder (which is childish and simplistic but I think it works ok).

    After trying all these different methods I altered Ivan's stuff to suit my personality (it did not work for me out of the box) and its my opinion that it does not really matter what the method is, as long as

    1) You have a method and stick to it through drawdowns
    2) It suits your personality
    3) You can verify it has a positive market expectancy
    4) The method includes more than just when to get INTO a trade, but also when to get OUT of a winning trade

    Ivan trades purely mechanically taking every long and every short trade on the euro on 6 hr charts and he stacks the cash consistently. To me its boring as hell and I dont like taking obvious counter trend trades, I dont like cutting short potential big winners to take small counter trend trades or failed counter trend trades which result in short covering. Basically I'd go crazy doing what he does (for example take a look at my blog for today where he has been blogging his trade decisions in real time with reasons) but for him there is no angst in taking trades opposite a strong trend, he knows he has a positive expectancy in the long run, and just lets it play out.

    Thanks for the ideas on the trailing stop based on MA, I might also do some testing on ATR multiples and see if I can come up with a better solution.

  • convictscott

    You mentioned currencies. Euro at new highs means my potential short idea for it is off the table until it gives some reasonable prospect of reversal

  • convictscott

    Also, with ADX, do you look at just whether the slope is up or down, or divergences, or is there a threshold number? I've always liked the concept never found an adequate ruleset to apply it 🙂

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Prechter's STU appears to be wrong on all counts: Gold, Silver, Equities and the Dollar. As far as it's subscriptions they must be in wave 3 of a Bear Market by now.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    So much for the BOJ defending it's currency at .82. The cross is in the dumpster.

  • chronographics

    Ahh but he will be right – perhaps, one day, at some point, maybe, possibly, to some degree and they will pump it for all its worth.

  • chronographics

    Well if people want to short this market then there were plenty of option plays that Mole has gone over in the Tutorials in previous posts.
    Personally I like to keep it simple.
    I am still short Euro – BUT I have Euro calls options for a greater amount. If it is decent move up or down then I will be in.
    If I get a clear signal of a top and get time I can always sell options or sell more Euro.

    Update on the 4 Hourly chart
    Wont pain the Bears with a chart but its back bullish except for the Osc which has run to the o/b level fairly quickly….

  • raised_by_wolves

    "I blew up my account on six consecutive occasions before I became profitable. Blew up completely.

    What I'm interested in is other trader's plans on how to trade this to the long side, how to manage stops in this environment, etc. It seems we are at an unusual juncture, which requires an unusual trading plan.

    I asked dudeplunger (who is working with my friend Ivan, and making a lot of improvement I believe) for his opinion if this rule was curve fitting or not.

    The rule is a filter on short trades in a situation where price is embedded in the top part of the bollinger band, and both bands are parallel.

    In this situation

    IF price remains embedded in the top 25% of the bollinger band
    AND both bollinger bands are pointing up, and parallel (or nearly so)
    THEN
    1) Ignore all short entries until get either 2 consecutive closes outside bollinger band OR a touch of the median line followed by a failed retest of the high
    2) Take all long entries but manage them differently than normal.

    Long entry management. Do not run a time based stop loss, ie price has unlimited time to get to target. Stop remains at inital stop loss until a new spike low is formed. Stop moves up to each sucessive spike low.

    This is how it would work in the current situation for silver

    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image68.png

    What do people think? Is this curve fitting or not? I'm undecided"

    As long as you're not curve fitting to that specific parabolic move and there's no risk of blowing up when the parabolic move ends, it makes sense to have conditions to identify parabolic moves and then rules to trade them differently.

    On the yearly time frame, $INDU went parabolic for almost a decade and a half. Wow, RSI(Low,2) plateaued at the top for a hell long time.

    I've been thinking about how to construct a big short at the potential end of a parabolic move. Your conditions may help me with this. Also, the idea of there needing to be a retest.

    My idea is to use a long put ladder because if I'm wrong about the direction, I think the likelihood of being very wrong is high, and it's better to be very wrong (and profitable) than slightly wrong (and unprofitable) with in this strategy.

    http://www.theoptionsguide.com/long-put-ladder.aspx

    Also, if I could successfully leg into the trade. . . .

  • chronographics

    RBW, good comments. Think that its not curve fitting if it works ALSO in a parabolic down move.

    As for constructing a short position I will still go with a buy Call Option a little early then sell straight currency when it hits my higher targets. that way I minimize my Options costs. Tend to do shorter term options so cost not huge. If the market does come off then I can put a stop in on the physical and sell the option if there is any value left in it, or just sell more against it. KISS for me 🙂

  • convictscott

    There is a blog called bubblehunter which has some interesting ideas about the preconditions for parabolic moves and the signs that they are about to go into terminal phase of ascent. Good, empirically tested stuff.

    Can you think of any other ways of recognising parabolic moves other than bollinger bands? I get a bit one-eyed once I latch onto an idea, and I'm looking for fresh ones.

    As for recognizing the end of it, and legging in… some untested and off the cuff ideas in no particular order 🙂
    – because the normal action of a market going parabolic is to attempt to shake out longs, before making them so desperate to buy back in, they do so right at the death… you should never IMO short a market until you have some sort of retest of the highs on a daily timeframe at least.

    See nasdaq 2000 top
    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image69.png

    – one strategy could be to try and work a trade based on a daily stop (small risk) into a trade based on the weekly chart, then roll it into the monthly and ride it to the beach
    – as a general proposition volatility signifies the end of the move
    – if you can chart open interest for all open futures contracts and add them together, the end of the move should have a LOWER open interest, as longs are closing out their positions and not being replaced with fresh longs.

  • convictscott

    The hypothetical new method works on every instance I've found of it, tested it on 20 different moves across different markets so far.

  • chronographics

    Also on shorts???

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • convictscott

    Also I suspect parabolic moves work very differently in stock indexes than currencies and commodities

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    EURUSD A=C

  • convictscott

    Havent got that far yet, I'd be very surprised if it worked without modification on both long and short parabolic moves, since both are based on very different conditions

  • chronographics

    This is true. But we also need to see completion on some of the smaller waves up from 1.3650 there are possible target at 1.4125 if you use Harmonic Elliott wave and think 1.4140 for 3 of 5 for usual way then a 4 and 5 to follow.
    Of course there are probably other variations as well.
    Been looking at the Harmonic stuff for a while. Think it has more accuracy more often …. It says if we break much above 1.4125 then we are on way to 1.5100 :-0

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    this COULD be the BLOW off move… let's see..if people will be saying OOPS by end of today…

    or maybe NOT…lol

  • convictscott

    Its a clear sign of my bias that I am still looking at euro as a potential short

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • chronographics

    Um er yeah um I am already short 🙂 but covered if you know what I mean. I am stubborn but not suicidal 🙂

    Yes it may require some modification but if the logic is the same I have no problem with it. After all the up moves in the stock market do behave differently to the down moves as you say.

  • chronographics

    Thats what I have but then this could be A is really a wave 1. The B wave is really a wave 2. The C wave is really a wave 3.
    That makes it super ugly for equity shorts 🙁
    Just keeping options open so to speak.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    I had marked major congestion in this area and did't think last week that it would make it here, although it seemed a nice neat point to focus from. Will take a look at Harmonic EW – new to me! Right here probabilities for some form of retracement are high whether = C or III.

  • Hungry_Joe

    One more push down and we test the bottom of a wedge in the dollar index starting from March 2008 at around 76/76.30 levels.

  • chronographics

    Google it and Ian Copsey. Some really interesting stuff. Stops you from having failed 5th's and some other stuff that never made sense to me. Known Ian for many years. He has authored a few books as well as worked and traded in Banks.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    http://www.screencast.com/t/rqjxxsLRVmG

    Yes looks like nearing “support”

  • raised_by_wolves

    Alrighty then. $DXY making a new low is my condition for re-longing (I was long until I took profits today). Notice how unresponsive equities are, how responsive gold is, and how hyper-responsive silver is to the dollar down moves. I have a chance of covering without a loss the short position I put on toward the end of the day and held overnight if $DXY doesn't move significantly lower and NQ stays this unresponsive before open. This is why shorting weakness, not strength, is so important.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Thanks for the reference chrono. That would certainly fit the Bullish picture as it appear that breakouts are a forgone conclusion in all markets that spell Inflation for the US. An interesting juncture; In my (Alt) I was looking at the EUR June low being C as in ABC from the top; this up wave being in III (alt C) of 1 of a new Bull in the EUR; which means I just restated what you said I guess :-). Certainly it's going for it.

  • gsavli

    AAPL broke through 300 yday and looks like it wants to stay over 300 today.

    Nothing says this is a turning point for NQ, so up we go. So far, 18.3% rally in an 1.5 month – impressive, we'd probably call this a crash, if it happened the other way.

  • chronographics

    Yup agree that is certainly a possibility which is why I stated a little while ago that it is the next pullback that will give us a clue as to the bigger trend. Its an even bet really from a TA perspective.

  • chronographics

    Interesting the recent high 1.4123 2 pips of Ian's call for a top – if we are to see some retracement of the recent move up… Will watch this carefully here.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I know people will think I'm crazy for using such a “crude” tool as RSI(2)—next one to make fun of me gets a lead salad, got it?—but when I have used it, I have found it useful, more useful than RSI(14). When one uses the four different variations (open, high, low, and close), it seems to tell one useful information about the price action, information that is probably redundant for you, Convict Scott, but a helpful aid for me.

    Based on what I've read, most people using RSI are looking for overbought conditions to short or oversold conditions to buy. My initial intent is the exact opposite. The idea is to buy overbought and short oversold. Besides mescaline, this is the only way to fly. 🙂

    Check out $COMPQ during the 90s. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/89ca3351-84fe-49ba-920c-68ee30a0acc8/00002377.png

    Also, check out GLD. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/48b34762-229c-40c9-bac8-8963e6eb04c7/00002378.png

    Recent pullbacks did not trigger a move off the RSI (2) plateau. So, do not short GLD. Neither did recent pullbacks go below TMA(5). Again, do not short GLD. In other words, do not fuck with gold.

    You calibrate RSI(2) to longer time periods. It doesn't have to be as long as the yearly—for instance, I have found the weekly helpful. But the yearly time period is the one to use if the goal is to capture a decade-long bubble in one trade.

  • chronographics

    What you do makes good sense as you are looking to buy strength – but not by the time it gets to overbought.
    One other thing you can do with the RSI and it works with 14 period never looked at it for much shorter time frames to be used in the following way – but it might work:
    If the RSI is getting above/near 80 and failing to go below 40 then its an uptrend.
    If the RSI is getting below/near 20 and failing to go above 60 then it is a down trend.
    If the RSI vacillates between 30 and 70 then it is a sideways market.
    Just a method I have found to be useful over the years.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for reminding me how to KISS.

  • chronographics

    Come on Big Boy I am sure you know already 🙂

  • SW6

    Is it strange that $DXY has made a new low, but the ES has not exceeded yesterdays high of 1181?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well, I meant overbought by my own custom standards. On the yearly time period, my definition of overbought conditions included the entire 1990s for stocks and the past few years for gold.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Actually. . . .

  • chronographics

    LoL

    OK remember the stuff I am still looking for? Well might have located it in an old laptop, ah hem trying to get it going had forgotten I had it.
    Anyway picture this on a weekly time scale you have a Monday open then you make a low for the week(so far) say Tuesday, then Wednesday a new High for the week (so far). So now its Thursday afternoon and the Market comes back below the Monday Open. We will take this on Euro for arguments sake as I have done the stats on it. So what do you do? – Dont say crack one of those nice beers you drink 🙂 What are the odds of what happening?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Keep in mind there could be a delayed effect. Often the silver futures to gold futures ratio moves up well in advance of equity futures when there is a big move up coming. That said, equities may not make much progress. I'm looking for silver to stay at or below +3%, gold and copper to stay at or below +1%, and /ES and /NQ to stay at or below +0.5% before open.

  • raised_by_wolves

    There are four possibilities: finish the week at new highs, new lows, above open but below high, or below open but above low. Since this is an uptrend, the probability favors finishing the week off above the open but below the high. That would be a normal open, low, high, close greater than open sequence.

  • chronographics

    K that is all true but there is another aspect as well which I just emailed to you. Be interested to see what you think 🙂

  • SW6

    A delayed effect is what I've been thinking about as I watch the futures. I shorted the S&P yesterday; I'm early, it seems.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I went short yesterday as well once the probability favored SPX moving down toward SPX/VIX, which, by the way, closed at its low. In contrast, SLV/GLD closed at its high and has obviously moved even higher overnight.

    I don't know what's going to happen*, but at least we are shorting weakness, not strength. Imagine shorting silver futures!

    *My guess is that the probability favors the person on the other side of the trade but risk reward favors our side of the trade.

  • raised_by_wolves

    It is encouraging that /ES and /NQ are heading toward zero and AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are negative. My revised guess at what may happen: first, there may be continuation of yesterday's EOD selloff. If I see what I think is a bottom being made, then I will cover. If not, tighten stop to break even and enjoy the ride down.

  • SW6

    I have a comment in moderation, do you see it?

  • raised_by_wolves

    You're approved now.

    Damn, it's late. I'm going to have to try to get a few hours of sleep before open.

  • SW6

    Ciao!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    USDJPY
    chart from a while ago…approaching 76

    monthly chart shows signs of positive divergence also low at 79.7

    http://www.screencast.com/t/EV04UZEZ9b

  • chronographics

    Was looking to put a “cheeky” short Euro trade on but missed the 1.4120 level then missed second chance at 1.4090.
    Now 5 min oSc and 15 Min Osc bottoming with Price just above 15 min ichi support. Will now wait and see what develops. Hourly and 4 Hourly Osc both crossed to downside from O/B this usually at very lest brings relief from a rally. We shall see.

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    looking back to the April top it means 'buyers beware' as we are finally topping. Give it a week or so, and we'll be 100 points lower.

  • chronographics

    Looks like another one of the endless 3's down before higher again 🙂
    Have that divergence with the Osc. The earlier short i was looking at would have been a nice quick trade in and out for a few points
    http://screencast.com/t/y3rV95115

  • raised_by_wolves

    Okay, one more comment before bed: Although I may be a creative chartist, I am not an experienced trader like Mole, Crony, or the Convict. Keep that in mind.

    My thought is that we shorted at a good place intraday, and this could work out for you since overnight tried to retest the highs and failed. I think I played this well given the crazy thing I'm trying to do, scalping midday to EOD using put options and rolling profitable short scalps that don't get an exit signal into potential break even or really profitable swing trades. I've actually had more success doing this than going long during this rally. Don't tell Eva this, but somehow I fuck up most of my long trades even though the trend has been up! The reason may be that it takes so long for a long trade to develop in comparison. Shorting gets me instant results. I can achieve the same profit in 20 minutes of down as 5 hours of up. Also, I have more objective intraday exit tactics for shorts. On the other hand, deciding to hold overnight in the absence of an objective intraday exit is very subjective, eh?

    Looking at SPX and NDX, they closed just a smidgen outside their BBs; that is BB(20,2). Based on Mole's BB methods, I think we want to see a close inside those BBs tomorrow followed by a close even further inside on Friday for a swing short setup Saturday, er Monday (stupid weekend). Using Crony's OLHC methods, I think we want to see this week's open taken out for a chance of closing the week at new lows (and probably covering before Friday's close). Using Convict Scott's price action methods, I think the only conditional sell signal waiting in queue is a move below Tuesday's low (though there could be a less rigorous sell signal condition created tomorrow). I could be wrong about their methods so you may want to ask them directly to confirm.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Full disclosure; as stated yesterday, I have no position whatsoever from a trading perspective here (except for being outright long shares in my employer which are doing fantastically well and the only thing keeping me sane) , and intend to stay focussed on my non-participation policy while the market continues to remain a joke.

    I can't help feeling a bit like its 2007 all over again though. I have this sense of deja-vu to when Bear Stearns started getting into trouble in late 2006/early 2007, and it was becoming totally apparent to all that the financial edifice was crumbling around us, yet the market powered to new highs before reality set in.

    I can totally understand last years historic rally. The last few days of the plunge were probably totally unwarranted at the time, and there was a panic driven drop and snap back. I understand how based on historic parallels people extrapolated bad (but getting worse at a slower rate) data as being positive. After all, its only human to read an unemployment data series of -700k, -600k, -500k etc etc and infer that at some stage that will turn positive.

    But the data got back to flatline, and now is trending negatively again, and yet we don't want to extrapolate in a negative direction. The MERS mortgage crisis has that feeling of subprime all over again…….initially people dismissed it as a mere technicality, but now its starting to capture the popular imagination.

    And yet stocks continue to rise, in the ludicrous expectation that all this bad news has to be good because it means there will be QE2. Its the ultimate in delusion if you ask me; the irony seems to be lost on collective market consciousness that the very fact we are talking about it means the first QE1 didn't work, so why should this be different?

    All the while fiat currencies are racing to the bottom, all trying to devalue, and precious metals are doing the predictable.

    I don't know if anyone read Albert Edwards (one of the few brave mainstream TBTF bank economists) piece last year where he said that it truly was unprecedented that all countries were adopting the same policies together.

    I think we are on the cusp of momentous, historical events. We think we have already experienced them, but I think the last few years has just been a canape, a mere amuse-bouche, to the great big porterhouse that is still to come.

  • Bob the Horse

    We are trapped between Zimbabwe and Japan. That is why it is such a mess. The economy is rolling over, there is no doubt about that. It is also clear that QE2 will make sod all difference – but it is the willingness of Bernanke to go nuclear that is forcing money into equities. We are essentially in a situation where the market could either melt up or down and neither would surprise me. I don't mean melt up in a good way but in a fiat currency getting out of control way.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Essentially, I got a good intraday short entry, no objective exit signal, made a subjective decision to leave the trade on overnight, leaving it to a coin flip from here knowing that I already have some profit as a buffer. The risk I'm taking when I do this is that an inverse flash crash (melt up) could happen overnight and fuck me with an eight-point-O-earthquake-size gap up. With my small account though, I think I should favor risk taking, always defined risk though (no options selling).

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    Basically, we're shorting even though we are in the danger zone.

    $SPX weekly with RSI(2) shows danger zone. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/d36d8024-8aeb-471c-a37b-0ff6a10d75cc/00002381.png

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8rZWw9HE7o

  • raised_by_wolves

    Wow, I forgot how much I love RSI(2). Again, I'll repeat the not-so-veiled threat. anyone who makes fun of my “crude” method gets a lead salad. Got that?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/ce5e5c09-a54f-4dc3-8d51-c521087f1030/00002382.png

    Hmm, the only thing I'm missing is volume. Why does $SPX not show any volume in TOS Prophet?

  • amokta

    Are the markets random – clearly not
    Are the markets predictable – if they are not random, then they ought to be, but in reality are not predicatable, as herd behaviour while not random, probably cannot easily be predicted?
    Is there a difference between randomness and unpredicatability?

    The action of market participants, alters market action, rendering 'static'/'in-advance' predictions useless – how can one model this sort of system, and can it give a trading edge.
    Is a trading edge only in being early on a trend, or on arbitrage (essentially) – no predictions involved

  • raised_by_wolves

    How about a pair trade? Short $BKX. Long gold. Cut losses quickly if the ($BKX)/(GLD) ratio quarterly candle goes white and moves upward above that 25% BB(20,1.0). Keep the trade on if red candles ensue in anticipation of getting a series of them causing RSI(2) to plow into the ground again.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/3e6823fe-3cf9-4ae3-ab55-18631491ca51/00002383.png

  • yudhisthira

    Yes, I've got /ES and AUD/JPY on my mobile list.
    It seems to be a full-function TOS for mobile.

  • juju2

    Are the markets predictable?
    Depends on how you quantify “predictable”.
    Are the markets 100% predictable? NO
    Are the markets 75% predictable. YES
    Yearly, I toggle between 65% to 75%.
    Limit downside losses and let your upside run, or visa versa.

  • juju2

    Orange Juice: if it trips $152.40 buy
    1st target 162.44
    2nd extended 167.89

  • Tooncez

    can you buy spx? How many shares would you trade for a share of the vix??

  • BobbyLow

    Convict Scott

    Thanks for your reply and words of encouragement last night.

    Regarding the ADX, in my new model, I use it primarily as a filter and possible divergence upon a trade entry. For example, if everything is looking good for a Long Entry and -D1 has just crossed over and looks to be picking up strength then I had better think twice about entering the trade.

    Also on the AROON when I back tested my current model back over the past 13 months I spotted a Possible Short Trade on SPY where everything lined up perfectly except the AROON was a Net Positive 67 and under my rules this would invalidate the set up. When I looked at what the results would have been, it would have been a large failure.

    On the Currency Front, I think you are right that the Euro is going to be a great short but it's not ready yet. I'll probably take the slow lane when the time is right and go with UUP. I've been in a relative fast lane for quite a while and have had way too many wrecks. LOL

    Also I've finally got it through my thick skull that it's OK to miss the first few Candles of a Move and it's OK to not get the last few Candles of a move as well. So I'll wait for my rules to be in place before I jump into the Dollar on the Long Side.

    I had to laugh when you said about DeMark being Brilliant in a weird kind of way. I can't understand it either and trading systems that I can't understand have not worked out well for me at all. This includes EW.

    I've been reading Ivan's Posts over at the sight and he has made excellent moves trading the E/u. Now that is the Fast Lane.

    Lastly, I tried working with Multiples of ATR in my model back test but for now trading primarily from a Daily Chart it works out better to use the Broken Bow Tie or MACD Break of the 0 Line as a Stop. If I was trading quicker charts than the multiples of ATR might be better.

    Thanks again for all your help.

  • JDWM

    is anyone watching? care to comment?

  • Tooncez

    you said a small account should favor risk:

    “risk of ruin” – if the possible drawdown of a system could make your account blow up, then it could be said you are taking on too much risk. Assuming you have a way to figure how unlucky you _could_ be…

    Perhaps a better method than generally favoring risk taking would be to position size based on something like “expected value” – you bet more in situations where the combination of risk/return/likelihood – as a calculation – results in a higher number, and don't bet on situations where over the long haul it doesn't make $$. I think this is why CS is always talking about his backtesting results. He's using past performance as a proxy for likelihood, and then applying his rules for punting or taking profits.

  • SW6

    HA! LOL on the video that is.

  • JDWM

    Well, VIX opened outside the bullish falling wedge on the 60.

  • SW6

    RBW, I'm hard pressed to recall another time when I've been so heavily informed and amused at the same time! Thanks for taking the time man. Hey, I'm having some technical problems right now,so I'll put the chart up in a bit,
    but on the issue of an objective exit…

    I felt silly not knowing just where I might get out if the trade started to go my way. Yesterday, I gave my stop way more thought than my exit; I figured that I was more likely to be stopped out. But here is an objective exit for you to consider: $SPX 1171.<——–WHY? Because it is a Point and Figure trendline resistance number. I would expect a bounce from there. Also, think about the “market tone.”* The market has been saying, “I won't go down until I hear Bernanke's Friday speech, so watch your ass shorting me. And even then I may still not go down.”

    So, I'm thinking this trade is probably best as a scalp. Perhaps the S&P can try to get close to Pluto again, like yesterday, and that could be the place to dig in one's heals claws, daggers, etc.

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    ES indicators – 6 timeframes at 10:02 EST

    http://www.screencast.com/t/PVXRtofTQ

  • SW6

    Yeah! Supply/demand gets very thin the closer we get to the April highs which has a dampening effect on price. 🙂
    Gary hang in there man the turn may be very close now. But for the love of God, do listen to what Convict Scott said about bad trading practice. Even if one turns out to be right after employing bad habits, that itself is dangerous, because the bad habits get entrenched. Go back and read the Convict's old comments.

    Also I don't want to be a know it all shit head. I've got plenty of bad habits that I'm working on too. I'd like to let you know, I've really admired your determination from the first comments I read of yours. I've been learning the hard way though to be gentle in implementing one's convictions. I think it's probably best to have a macro view that one stays with until you can see you are wrong. But with the tape just trade it as it is, and realize that your macro view will take ages to play out.

    I understand your aggressive and stubborn stance. My birthday is April 14th too. I'm an Aries like you!

  • Eva S

    My b-day is in May. Taurus is the best zodiac sign for a trader. 🙂

  • SW6

    Eva, you just won't stop making us bears envious will you. 🙂

  • Eva S

    🙂

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    ES RH LOD is 69.75, a tick above yesterday's low of 69.5. This is a set up for gap down below 69.5 at some point. Not sure when – possibly tomorrow. Got to happen before the madmen get their hands on the POMO cash tomorrow

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The ATR modelmis what I use – inspired by the turtles. You can modify that via (fractional) multipliers if necessary.

  • JDWM

    If VIX closes above c20 (and it looks as if it may well do) we may may be on for 1150.

  • SW6

    it's funny. today feels like summer, when we were watching a really slow-motion tape with zombie volume…

  • SW6

    Agree with everything you've said here!

  • JDWM

    VIX: 10 above the 20 on the 60. Price v ear the 50. MACD rapidly approaching 0 line.

  • Tooncez

    For those that are ATT haters:
    Some lady just walked up to me at this McD's and asked how to connect to the AttWifi here. I looked out the window at the chain across the street and said I'm connected there. Then the guy next to me piped in and said he was too…

  • BobbyLow

    And let's not forget this also happens to be Thursday of OPEX Week.

    The Tape is The Tape Is The Tape but if this Data is true from ZH, then some how this market can't help but feel like a ticking time bomb.

    From ZH on 10/13:

    ” Sorry CNBC and Mr. Pisani but there is no way to spin this. ICI has just reported the latest in what is now a weekly farce: nobody wants a piece of this market. Nobody. Retail is out permanently, as was confirmed by the 23rd sequential outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, this time redeeming $5.6 billion, the highest since the beginning of September, right before the Fed full blown stock ramp intervention began. And that brings the total YTD mutual fund redemptions to $80 billion. Sorry bankers – no greater fool, no hot potato. The jig is up. Have fun selling AAPL at $50,000,000 to each other (and of course ENIAC) in subpenny increments. Everyone else will stick to bonds and gold. Lights out.”

    I'm detecting a very faint heartbeat from my SPY Put Lottery Tickets but they still need electro defibrillation to be able to thrive. 🙂

  • SW6

    … yeah OPEX and a bloody POMO …

    You know what else is funny? I'm sitting here babysitting my position, when what I really want to do is go for a walk then come home and sleep (i've been up most of the night). I was thinking of asking you if you're going to mow your lawn. If so, then I know the tape won't move and I don't have to stay glued to my monitor. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    LOL, sorry but it's spitting rain so I can't go outside and mow.

    If you are in Profit Mode maybe you need to take it and go for your walk or set a stop to BE and go for your walk and go to bed.

    Still got another 3 hours till close and FBOW, the Market will probably still be here when you get up. 🙂

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Well there may be fk all happening, but it looks like certain prayers are going to be answered. At the risk of being premature, I'm breaking out the disco. Largely cos I got bored of waiting.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrIE266rqnw

  • Tronacate

    Bonds just got whacked…….everything dropping together….except gold of course

  • Tronacate

    VIX sell signal yesterday??

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Amen, brother. Step three today.

    Where you been anyway?

  • Fearless

    Careful, Mole will have you shot and your family enslaved in North Korea for asking any questions about the VIX signals.

  • Fearless

    Take a look at DD chart from 2007 to now on different time scales. I think this one paints the clearest picture of all. A confluence of resistance coming in to play right now on long, intermediate, and short terms.

  • gsavli

    strange market.

    when copper plunges, bonds go up and USD goes up, oil goes up, market goes up

    and today, copper up (at the open was in green), TLT down, USD down, oil down and what does the market do?

    no wonder it feels so fucked up.

  • Tronacate

    Whoops…….just checking

  • Eva S

    and silver and solars…

  • amokta

    how come stocks down, and gold up?
    what about everything deflating/inflating in step
    were the seventies a strange time too

    even Eva can't explain it 🙂

  • Eva S

    LOL!
    This doesn't feel like a massive sell off just yet. Only big banks and bonds are down. It's probably just on opportunity to add…. 🙂

  • amokta

    yes, could go either way. wary of going long, othr than daytrades

  • Eva S

    OMG! Education stocks taken to the woodshed, with APOL -25% the worst one. Guess no one wants to go to school anymore….

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm out with a small profit. The bottom looks too well defined with multiple ratio bottoms, and there looks like there is too much risk of an inverse head and shoulders. Maybe NDX will come down for a double bottom, but I think the probability favors NDX/VIX having bottomed.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/5fedefad-b45b-4a85-b129-690c40adf37b/00002384.png

  • AudioTactics

    Sorry to rain on your parade but more retail leaving the market at this point in time would be a contrary indicator and in addition, means there is more money on the sidelines or in other assets to buy stocks at these levels.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Not when there are worthless, overpriced degrees that don't get you jobs. I personally spent 40K on an education to nowhere. Of course, I'm an anomaly because I failed and flunked out of college. But people that did complete their degrees are tending to find that more and more their degrees are worth shit.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-05/stripper-s-college-degree-profitable-for-goldman-finds-70-000-was-wasted.html

    I don't judge her at all. She's doing what she has to do to survive.

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    ES indicators – 6 timeframes at 14:02 EST

    http://www.screencast.com/t/tidVJEF14

  • SW6

    The blue break of the blue trend line says sell. If a retracement is not contained by the far right red trendline SPX will attempt a move back to Pluto. We are still beneath blue. But each outcome is a noisy move. The more decisive move would be a move to 1160.

    http://screencast.com/t/aGKTVQpWLOJm

  • JDWM

    Aren't financials the biggest 500 sector?

  • Eva S

    That's a funny story. At least she's young and decent looking…

  • EvilTrader

    not funny if you were in her position.

  • Eva S

    Maybe she found her true calling and loves her profession?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Last summer I risked ruin by trading too small, too frequently. Not factoring in the cost of commissions, I was consistently profitable. Factoring in the cost of commissions, I was consistently unprofitable.

    Is there a way to backtest when the indicators dynamically shift? I'm thinking of the dynamic moving averages on my intraday charts that shift when new lows or highs are made. Moving averages aside, you can probably back test this situation where there will be an implicit buy signal here if NDX/VIX does not make a new low even if NDX makes a slight new low, right?

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/5cc2d741-6e4c-4e46-913b-d6aee2f90f38/00002385.png

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_VSVXKYHCX5MPKIR6C2MRTTL42U Celtic33

    I'm surprised FAZ isn't up much much more

  • Tronacate

    Be tough to pump everything with shitty treasury auctions……….let the currency wars begin

  • JDWM

    This VIX rise is much stronger than 30/9 and 4/10 based on MACD, STOCHS and RSI. 1150?

  • Tooncez
  • Tronacate

    NQ right at S1…..expect a little bounce here

  • Eva S

    (Dow Jones)–The stock market's “fear gauge” will have a clone in Canada next week.
    The new measure, which TMX Group and Standard & Poor's said will launch Monday, tracks options on Canadian stocks in the S&P/TSX 60 Index.
    The new Canadian measure uses the proprietary VIX methodology of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, part of CBOE Holdings Inc. (CBOE).

  • http://wealthadviseruk.blogspot.com/ Gary_UK

    It wasn't so much determination as being trapped short. I have leaned a lot this past 2 months, mostly that I hate trading! I am not good at it at all.

    I just need the trading Gods to smile on my trades with a 15%+ drop, and I will have a lucky escape.

    Then at least I'll have a chance to load up when it bounces for the horror show that's due next year.

    I am stupid, but if spared this time, I will never get caught again I promise.

    And I listen to what everyone says, so thanks.

  • Tooncez

    Can you mark up your chart there with what you're hoping to see backtested?

    Rules, etc… 'splain it so a robot could understand…

  • raised_by_wolves

    No, at the moment I can't buy or sell SPX. If I could, I think I would prefer to buy or sell 50 VIX shares. I've never considered trading VIX, but at first glance it actually seems easier to trade.

  • Tooncez

    Can you mark up your chart there with what you're hoping to see backtested?

    Rules, etc… 'splain it so a robot could understand…

  • amokta

    The only thing folks fear in Canada are Bears (red, black, brown, pink, polar, all sorts of bears)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Ok so not only did we dip below 69.5, we went on to go below 64.5. If we do not take out 73.5 by EOD, then there is decent chance that we may pay a visit to 59.5 either tomorrow or early next week.

  • Tooncez

    My advice is don't take take it personally that you can't. And always short them if you can. And let me in on who's buying. 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If we get a little EOD ramp in the next 30 minutes I will leg into some Dec SPY puts – just for shits and giggles. Exit would be a VIX close below yesterday's.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Tomorrow is another POMO day – just FYI. So maybe keeping some powder dry for tomorrow's ramp is wise.

  • Tooncez

    your puts are pomophobic? 😉

  • yogi_barra

    Mole…so VIX sell signal triggered today?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Note for fellow inexperienced traders: Tooncez is pulling my leg. I can't buy or sell VIX outright but I could buy or sell options on that bitch if I wanted to.

  • raised_by_wolves

    <rhetorical question=””>Do I sell my OTM turned ATM ABK lottery tickets for 150% profit today or risk letting them expire worthless, which was the original plan, for the improbable possibility of selling them for 300% profit tomorrow if they go ITM?</rhetorical>

  • Brishort

    Hummm. Vix sell signal vs POMO money. Is this the superbowl where only one team can be the winner?

    Anyone has any comments/ideas about trading the spread approach?

    Idea 1: Short NDX100 & long S&P500: any advice on this pair trade?

    Idea 2: Short EUR/US & Long NDX 100 (or S&P500?)

    Gain is limited, but the volatility accelaration should play in favor of higher beta. Just unsure if NDX 100 or EUR/US is the highest beta.

  • Eva S

    You may get your red close today…

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Take a second glance and note that out month strikes can sell for less than intrinsic value because they can't be exersised like normal options. So if you have a strike of 25, VIX spikes to 35, you may not even get 10 unless your option is very close to expiring.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm letting them probably expire worthless. That's what lottery tickets are for. 🙂

  • Eva S

    GOOG +6% a/h on earnings

  • Eva S

    What is “ABK lottery tickets”?

  • gsavli

    NQ down all day and then up in 5 mins as nothing happened. when will i ever learn?

  • gsavli

    with these new blast earnings, it has extrapolated PE of 21.8.

    much better buy than NFLX with 65.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Heck – that was fun! Waited until 4:14 to get filled 🙂 The Zero was great today.

  • Eva S

    GOOG is hot abroad + the USD is weak

  • Tooncez

    My /es didn't fill at 1162.5 :/. I was all ready to play the take-off song. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvgJEznqtms

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sure did not feel like it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You could call it that – yes.

  • Eva S

    On Oprah right now: a guy with 4 wives. Would you like to have 4 wives, guys? What if they all worked and you could trade all day?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_UQZ2DFEFQGKMGC3KZ7VNNMEISQ JARAA

    dunno. he miscalled gold by saying get out @ 1200; now were supposed to think no downside till jan?

    doubt it.

  • raised_by_wolves

    These OCT 10 1 calls, which are almost ITM but (in my mind) but will probably expire OTM unless ABK has more heavy buying tomorrow.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/2d6f9a2f-5441-4a37-bfe1-8e1749e11337/00002388.png

  • http://www.stringmandalas.com LosGatosCA

    ES indicaotors – 6 timeframes at End of Day

    http://www.screencast.com/t/z0UM0Vxd

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    You won't be able to trade your plan, my friend. AH, ABK is up 6c making your lottery tickets ITM

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Why would you do this today and not wait for Monday EOD when we have back-to-back POMOs on Friday and Monday

  • raised_by_wolves

    Oh no, I might actually make money 😉

  • Tooncez

    I was just playing with a linear regression band version of the same concept for scalping.
    http://screencast.com/t/Bc3K1GtV
    Now I'll have to back test that along with your rsi and CS's BB's rules (when I get a chance). Pass the salad?

  • Eva S

    ABK did great today, congrats!

  • raised_by_wolves

    For me, one wife would be preferable. I wouldn't want the four wives conspiring against me or getting jealous of each other.

    As for work, well, work is a good thing when one is working for oneself or those one loves. For instance, I do photography for myself—no pay whatsoever, and it is has much utilitarian value, causing me great pleasure. Doing something like dishes is pretty neutral. I think I like doing dishes actually. I think doing work only becomes a disutility when you're working for a corporation. The economic models that say work is always a disutility are bullshit. If no one got paid, there would be less work done, sure, but people not everyone would sit around at home watching TV. I think a lot of people would still do work because working makes you feel good. Working for corporations makes you feel bad because you know you are being used, and there is a lot more input of pain than output of pleasure for you. So, the current state is pain input without pleasure output. I think the natural state, hunter gathering or farming for oneself and not someone else is pain input with pleasure output.

  • DudePlunger

    TODAY! You are looking for a top everyday, why? Try to remove your bias, work on trading profitably and not on being a profitable a bear. There is nothing wrong with going long and making money, just as there is nothing wrong with going short and making money.

  • convictscott

    I think you would like a book called Lynchpin by Seth Godin

  • raised_by_wolves

    No congratulations needed. If I wasn't already gambling for fun when I entered the trade, I am now that I chose not to take the 150% profit that was on the table. The original trade plan was letting my call options expire worthless, and I'm sticking to it.

  • gsavli

    no need to be a smart ass – look at the NQ tape and you will see, why am I bitching because of what happened AH.

  • Eva S

    I think the problem is with how American companies treat their employees. About 1/2 my friends are in continental Europe. I would say 90% of them like their jobs. On the other hand, probably 75% of my American friends hate their jobs, even that they make decent salaries, probably higher than in Europe.

  • Sleepynaptime

    I read one of his books, “The Dip”, a while back and liked it. He has a terrific blog – Marketing/Business practices, not trading – but I haven't been in a while. Now that you mentioned him I realize I haven't visited over there in a while. I'll have to go back and take a look at that book, too.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sick. I recommend back testing RSI(open,2), RSI(low,2), and RSI(High,2) as well as RSI(2) and combinations of them. One question I have is whether RSI(low,2) and RSI(high,2) are more useful together than RSI(2) alone.

  • Eva S

    Bulls saved the day (again!).

  • DudePlunger

    I'm going to be a complete asshole here, but you need to hear it.

    This is an atrocious comment. This is the worst thing you could've possibly said. You want trading gods to smile on you? You want a lucky escape just this once? Load up when it bounces for the horror show that's due next year? If spared this time, never caught again I promise?

    You are on a fast track of blowing out. And you are learning nothing from it. Your emotions are guiding you. You are predicting. You are trading the same way a gambling addict treats Vegas.

    If you want to be profitable at this game, talk to people who are profitable. See how they think, how their approach is nothing like yours, and why they are unlikely to blow out. Otherwise, I hope you are only risking a sum of money you can afford to lose, because within 6 months I don't expect your account to exist.

    Even if the market has a 15% drop, and you pull out profits, you think you'll just walk away? Any one of your next 10 trades will increase your likelihood of blowing out because now you will have a fear of missing the next move. Take caution, close all positions, and save your hard earned money. I rarely make such bold statements, but I'd really hate to see you blow out a significant amount of money (that number is individual to each of us), but unfortunately there is no way you can ever be consistently profitable with your current mindset.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Another one I added to my list. Right now, I'm still reading Fooled By Randomness. My reading pace has been non-linear, 50 page spurts followed by days or weeks of not reading and even thinking I lost the book.

  • convictscott

    There is no evidence of a top as yet. The $vix signal is a positive sign for an impending top, but recently complicated TA has failed utterly, and simple TA is working like a charm.

    $SPX fell until it hit the 50 EMA, then it rallied into the close. This structure is repeated from 2 days ago where it did exactly the same thing. I have noticed (actually Corey Rosenbloom pointed it out) that daily structures are repeating identically way too often to be normal.

    http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image70.png

    I remain long. I moved the stop on my long to 1162.25 (1 tick below the daily hammer low)

    On my methods a break of todays $spx high is an additional buy signal (hammer buy in an uptrend).

    The evidence is clear. Price fell all day, it was a *clear* opportunity for bears to wrest control, force bulls to take some profits, and attempt some kind of reversal. The dip buyers swarmed in (why wouldnt they, dip buying is the only thing working right now) and overwhelmed the bearish firepower. Volume on the es z0 5 min chart increased steadily with the rally, which makes it NOT look like some of the manipulation based short squeezes we have seen recently. This was volume steadily increasing along with the rally, looking exactly like what it was, buyers getting a bargain, and being excited about stocks on sale.

    The evidence today is very clear. Not a prediction for tomorrow, not a rationale for what happened. Just what happened.

    Price attempted to go down. The intraday lows were REJECTED by the market, which showed that the intraday low of 1166.71 was a price point the market found attractive enough to induce fresh buying(exactly the same as the moving average support it found 2 days ago). Evidence of the morning selling pressure is that it was not strong enough to break the daily lows on $indu (which painted an inside bar). This in itself is bullish for both markets, since real selling pressure should have broken the lows on both markets.

    At this point bears have been punched repeatedly into submission, and have little firepower left. IMO its going to take them a little while to gather the courage, the ammo, and the evidence to have another shot. IMO all that happened today was a few weak longs took profits and got shaken off the bull train. I would draw a longish bow and hypothesis with no evidence that the $indu is stronger because insto buyers cant jump in and out as readily, and the dow stocks are more suitable for them because of volume.

    Also, the nasdaq really should have been exhibiting more selling pressure after yesterdays gap up. That was a very weak attempted gap fill, telling me that the underlying buying pressure supporting this market is still too strong enough to be overwhelmed by the bears.

  • convictscott

    Consult your *written down* trade plan and follow it. If you have a mental trade plan its not worth the paper its written on.

    My experience is that my IQ falls steadily from the moment I enter a trade. I do my best analysis, my best planning, before I get in.

    I count not following the plan as a much more serious error than losing money on a trade.

  • convictscott

    I saw something in the blogosphere about a change in the way $vix was calculated a few days ago throwing the number out. Has anyone done any checking into this?

  • gagelle

    Dude, you're actually being generous by giving this advice. I already learned the lesson the hard way. Now I'm reading, studying, and paper trading so I can develop my own style.

  • raised_by_wolves

    What VIX sell signal? The potential one that could happen at tomorrow's close? After today's long candle wick and the close below BB(20,1.0), my guess (I really don't know) is that a lower VIX close tomorrow is as probable as a higher VIX close tomorrow. The one thing $VIX may have going for it is that the current price is higher than this week's open, but that is the same thing that $SPX has going for it—it's current price is above this week's open.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/cd8f5a9d-9cc8-4e1c-bf0d-371e35b5ddf7/00002389.png

  • DudePlunger

    Yup. :D.

  • DudePlunger

    Thanks man. I've lost a lot of money (after making it with a false methodology) and I've spent 2 years since paper trading, trying real money trading, and going back to paper trading, saving my hard earned money until I'm ready.

    What books are you reading right now? I just started reading Markets in Profile, it was on my to-read list and convictscott pushed it to the top for me.

  • raised_by_wolves

    My written down plan says, “Lottery tickets. Expire worthless.” No joke. I was very tempted to intervene today to take profits.

  • Tooncez

    I'd hope they'd put it on the 'official site' They were kind enough to mention the '03 change: http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/introduction.aspx
    If I recall, I think it might be blended over different expy's, which could get tricky around opex? Maybe I should read about it on the site I just linked in…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Do you realize that idea 1 would be going against the yearly trend?

    ($NDX)/($SPX)

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/33bad5ea-f906-4ae5-9576-777459154551/00002390.png

  • Tooncez

    code attempt (crosses fingers): VIX uses near-term and next-term out-of-the money SPX options with at least 8 days left to expiration, and then weights them to yield a constant, 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index.

  • gagelle

    I just started “The Disciplined Trader,” by Mark Douglas.

  • amokta

    I tried to buy an etf a few minutes after close, even though 'after-hours' price was live, suggesting it still trades – or is this only for funds who are allowed to trade, or is it just my UK-broker

    just as well, as was trying to buy a short etf. Then remembered what about what ConvictS was saying – risk behaviour (to a degree) is rewarded in natural world, but in trading perhaps you have to trade probabilities? I had become emboldeNed by sucessful ETF trades over last two days.
    One other useful rule – cut losing trades quickly, but let wining trades run (but perhaps move stops up).
    what is th risk reward holding etfs overnight? im long gold/silver (!?)

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

    Good God, GOOG is up $50 in AH…
    WDC is up 8% in AH…YAY—
    I get to short NTAP again…WDC competitor…
    BRCM getting close to some short sell prices.
    http://zstock7.com/?p=3492

  • raised_by_wolves

    Someone told me imitation is the sincerest form of flattery 😉

  • Tooncez

    Now if we could only get you to code <bold>without</bold> the <>'s 😉

  • equity_momo

    RBW , long gld short spy in equal amounts is the “buy and hold” strategy for the next 2 years. Whatever happens big picture , this trade will payoff. Put it on , and go get the handicap to single digits in time for 2012 Ryder Cup. No need to watch this tape daily.

  • convictscott

    Bobby, Ivan trading 6hr charts is the slow lane for him, when I met him he used to trade the same method on 10 min charts, making hundreds of mechanical decisions a day. I still prefer the 15 min charts for when I notice a big currency move happening and am too late to get on board. I just drop the timeframe back to 15 min and use the same method Ivan does on the 6hr on the 15 min.
    Eg from today http://www.masterkillers.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/image71.png

    As for TD Sequential, I dont get the arbitrary use of the number 9 in the count. I've done a lot of testing of this method and its eerie how often it picks an exact top of a major move. It also has a lot of validity in the current equities situation, where equities have enough strength to overwhelm their overbought situation. But still I dont understand it, and I would probably not have the confidence in it to trade it through a drawdown.

    It sounds like the recent struggles you have had have pushed you to go away and come up with a real method with a demonstrable positive market expectancy. Thats half the battle won, now all you have to do is have the courage and discipline to trade it day in – day out. To me it takes 90% of the stress out of the markets when I dont feel the pressure to predict when it will turn, where it will stop. Its very easy to trade with a method. Right now I am long because the market (despite my better judgement) is telling me its going up. I am confident that when the market turns it will give me a signal to get short – because its given me a signal for every single turning point in the last year (a lot of false ones, but I havent missed out on a move) If I get stopped out of my long I wont feel the crushing sense of shame I used to feel for getting it wrong, since it was the method and not me. The other side is that I wont get to feel all clever for being right since I'm not actually right, just following a method, which a well trained monkey could do.

    Thanks for your comments on ADX too 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    What about long gold, short something shitty like banks as I suggested earlier or SPY like equity_momo just suggested?

  • convictscott

    IMO the random walk theory is nonsense. Markets are NOT predictable all the time, but at certain times they are. Like a blackjack card counter, when all the 2, 3, and 4 cards are out on the table, the odds temporarily skew in your favour.

    You could not predict what every poster on this board had for breakfast. But if you locked us all in a building, set it on fire, I bet you could predict with a high degree of reliability what we would all do.

    At times of high drama and emotion, our DNA takes over making us predictable, a homogenous herd ready to be slaughtered

  • Eva S

    Don't forget GOOG is getting into wind energy. This may be the reason…

  • convictscott

    In my experience most small account traders can be more profitable by trading less frequently for a higher size, within the threshold of risk of ruin mathematics.

  • Eva S

    You don't love SLV anymore?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Besides or in addition to buy and hold, is there a defined risk, low theta burn way you would play this? Say if I you were going to be conservative with 90% of your account, buying and hold the long gold/short spy pair, but wanted to be aggressive if the remaining 10%. What would you do? Any options strategy?

  • convictscott

    Are you sure Gary? If we break the April highs its a game changer. Many of the long term bearish camp will have to capitulate, wave theory is utterly debunked as bull-plop, and you will have breakout buyers adding to the bullish pressure.

    As unlikely as it sounds the retail buyer might actually return to the market.

    If we break the April highs, the odds then favour us topping some way above them, then the form of the inevitable pullback will tell us more.

  • convictscott

    You know it! Me too!!

  • Eva S

    Why is FXE showing +18% a/h?

  • DudePlunger

    Yo scott, if you got a few minutes go on skype.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I still do but, uh, I got shaken off and want back on but would prefer to get back on after a pullback instead of chasing.

  • OldChicago

    When INTC, JPM report good earnings, all the moms & pops rallied except for the messengers themselves. GOOG managed to flow all boats, wood logs and crabs. This will hike NDX come morning. ES & banks aren't floating with the tech shares, so far.

    So, need to pray hard for the “confirmation” that Mole alluded to.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Of course, that was the same logic I applied when SLV was 10% lower than it is now. But isn't that logic sound if I'm more concerned about not getting burned than about opportunity cost?

  • convictscott

    The dramatically increased volatility in metals over the last week indicates this is probably the terminal phase of the move. Absolutely NO WAY TO TELL where the monkey wheel stops, dont let any forecasters tell you any different. Regular TA does NOT work in manias and foolishness, and that is what this is. “This time its different because fiat money is worthless the only store of value is gold and silver”

    This time its differerent… ever heard that shit before?

    It depends where you are long from, but I see no reason to get out yet, and no reason to get short. Its way overbought and could pull back at any time… when it falls it will come off very hard, it really depends on how much guts you have, and what your WRITTEN trade plan is. If your trade plan is not to hold overnight, dont hold overnight, no matter what.

  • Eva S

    Congrats!

  • gsavli

    yea, it pulled AAPL along nicely. It's highly probable, that this move will continue tomorrow.

    actually, GOOG today reminds me of that AMZN gap up, after which it was just rocket launch.

  • convictscott

    I meant to comment on that, zero lite kicked major major ass today, picked the bottom like a runny nose 🙂

    I sure do like being able to roll over in the middle of the night, check zero on the ipad, and go back to sleep

  • convictscott

    That google announcement is a genuine zero on the wheel

  • raised_by_wolves

    I also want to short SLV sometime in the future though certainly not now.

  • convictscott

    Its actually an interesting situation where you have unexpected windfalls, which for me are the most emotionally difficult trading decisions to make. Really needs to be in your plan.

  • raised_by_wolves

    So, my plan was incomplete because didn't have a contingency for this situation, eh?

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm brainstorming and will be writing down a plan to long SLV. I can already tell you that the plan assumes that SLV is in the late stages of its rally (a healthy assumption for anyone planning to long, right?). The plan will include a defined way to get long after a pullback for a retest of the highs for an assumed high probability double top or an assumed lower probability continuation of the uptrend (assumed again from the perspective of someone going long).

  • Eva S

    SLV has had a wild run the past 8 weeks, but there is so signs the run is ending…

  • raised_by_wolves

    If you want to short silver (like my future self will want to), that is the correct default assumption. If you want to long silver (like my current self wants to), shouldn't the default assumption be that the run may end soon? I guess another approach would be to start fading in. . . .

  • Eva S
  • convictscott

    Very much so. Most peoples trading plans do not cover enough eventualities.

    The purpose of a trading plan is to save you from making decisions under pressure. You can never make a truly objective decision whilst a trade is under way, because your brain thinks trading decisions are life and death survival decisions. Your psyche, in its childish way, thinks market death = real death.

    The plan should define what is an unexpected event, for me its a 2R return on the bar of entry (always in terms of R return compared to amount risked), and what should be done. Some options are
    – take partial profits
    – take whole profits
    – trail a stop at 50% retracement of the move to not get shaken out by a wave 4
    – limit order to exit part of the position at the high of the bar.

    Take your trading records, and work out which would have been most profitable, and emotionally easiest.

  • equity_momo

    The trick is being able to handle the drawdowns that will invariably happen through freakish moves in either asset class but the trend is very very clear : 1 ounce may not buy 1 share of dow (ie , DOW10K GOLD 10K) but i absolutely think we see a 1:3 ratio or even a 1:2. ie DOW 10K and GOLD 3K or possibly DOW 10K GOLD 5K. Or DOW 3k , gold 1k. You get the picture.
    I am no options guru , but im sure you can come up with some nice straddles or strangles to put on this spread at the right time – i would be careful though , this spread will only come my why so it trying to exact more alpha could be like waiting for the dip in gold to buy it. It will happen but it could go along way from your initial patience zone before the correction occurs. Those with deep pockets can afford to put this on without margin and just chill. Its a winner. If i knew how to post charts i have a very compelling logarithmic one of the S+P priced in gold since the 1920s.
    Gold is increasingly seen as money : what you are seeing is gold acting as the bearish play on the market by going long it. this is people who really want to sit in cash not being able to due to bernanke. Gold is acting as a deflation on the economy. Its beautiful , its fukcing with Bernanke on a daily basis. He must be having sleepless nights. Jerk off.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Haha, look at APOL priced in silver!

  • equity_momo

    Long Precious metals are a bearish play on capital markets and a version of “risk off”.
    See my previous reply to RBW.
    This asset is the last bastion of a free market – there is bound to be another hammer fukcing on the longs by JPM but use every single freakish down move to convert cash into these assets. The system is completley set up to self destruct , just a matter of time. Even if the market does melt down , i dont even know if there will be a system around to pay out. Bank holidays R us.

  • amokta

    Great – the streets are paved with gold in London & the Eiffel Tower is made of silver

  • Eva S

    Look at the weekly SLV chart – it does look like the left side of the Eiffel Tower.

  • raised_by_wolves

    No one has shown that a money system with compound interest won't blow up. The assumption of most people in society is that our money system won't blow up. On what basis do they make this assumption? If science does not back that assumption, then isn't that assumption faith based?

  • Tooncez

    What do your entry rules say?

  • convictscott

    Play defense, wait for the pullback, even if its a one day pullback. Regular TA falls apart during this kind of move, you need to be very cautious applying regular TA concepts to it. The logic is simple. There are any number of longs like yourself, who got shaken out and are kicking themselves, looking for a way to get back in.

    When the pullback comes it will first look *convincingly* like the move is over and the smart thing to do is run and hide. That weakness will attract top picking shorts, who cant adjust to the realities of the new high price. They will say its “being contrarian” but its not, its just bias in a different form (which I am particularly vulnerable to).

    Price will go down, and for a moment it will look like the bears are winning. At the point where the weak hands are shaken out the buying pressure from the sideliners (like you) will overwhelm the shorts, forcing them to cover into a rising market, adding to the buying pressure.

    At the point you should buy it should objectively fit within your rules but emotionally feel VERY WRONG, you will probably want to articulate something like “I just dont want to” with no reasons attached. I had the same thing happen in sugar recently, a textbook buy which I didnt take because it “felt wrong” and I was looking for a short which never came.

    Emotionally its much easier to buy today and sell on the pullback. Herd behaviour. We are in the full-on herd behaviour stage of this thing, so apply crowd logic to it, and beware the stampede to the exit at the end.

  • Tooncez

    Does that include bennies? I mean, I have to pay for my health care… and let's not talk retirement age…

  • raised_by_wolves

    My old crystalized set of rules for entering trades: (SLV)/(GLD) pointed up? Yes. (SLV)/($SPX) pointed up? Yes. (GLD)/($SPX) pointed up? Yes. If yeses, then only consider long SLV or short $SPX. Is SLV pointed up? Yes. Is $SPX pointed up? No. Then, don't trade. Would be long silver if both $SPX and SLV were pointed up or short $SPX if both were pointed down. Pointed up or pointed down is defined by the direction of daily line chart.

    Do you need exit rules to make this backtest-able? My exit rules were never as clearly defined.

  • equity_momo

    EXACTLY! The whole concept of our economic system is based on confidence , ergo FAITH. Its like believing in the Flying Spaghetti Monster. What you are seeing now is a slow realization that the Emperor has no clothes. Its been happening since the tech blow up but is escalating now.
    You better believe me when i say the very rich , the smart money , those with a wink and a nudge , do not have the bulk of their assets sat around in deposit accounts , broker accounts or retirement accounts.
    FOLLOW THE MONEY : precious metals , diamonds , antiques , classic art , wine , arable land (they aint building anymore land) and super high end real estate in the no BS neighbourhoods. You buy the best , you'll be protecting what wealth you have.
    The rest of us are just playing chicken with the Matrix.

  • raised_by_wolves

    My old crystalized set of rules for entering trades: (SLV)/(GLD) pointed up? Yes. (SLV)/($SPX) pointed up? Yes. (GLD)/($SPX) pointed up? Yes. If yeses, then only consider long SLV or short $SPX. Is SLV pointed up? Yes. Is $SPX pointed up? No. Then, don't enter trade. Would be enter long silver trade if both $SPX and SLV were pointed up or enter short $SPX trade if both were pointed down given the ratio criteria. (Pointed up or pointed down is defined by the direction of daily line chart). The idea is to long strength when the weak is strong too or short weakness when the strong is weak too. I've never backtested this.

    Do you need exit rules to make this backtest-able? My exit rules were never as clearly defined. I'm also curious about using weekly signals instead of daily. Maybe daily is too noisy and leads to too many trades being taken? Commission costs are a huge factor, and I can only make three day trades a week. That's one reason I'm interested in weekly signals. Another reason is it may give a truer signal. Fuck, I don't even know if the rules work. They have worked for when I've used them (either because they are good or due to luck), but I haven't consistently used them because I'm always doing experimental shit (which I should probably do with paper money) and get myself distracted. Also, what about some combination of daily and weekly signals. Enter on the daily signal when the weekly agrees?

    How do I backtest my rule? You're downloading TOS data and importing it into Microsoft Excel, right? I could probably use Apple Numbers or any spreadsheet app, eh?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Dang you just had to ask didn't ya?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Never trust the french.

    // joke

  • raised_by_wolves

    Honestly, I hope it all falls apart sooner rather than later but not too soon because (1) I don't want to get too comfortable in the current system and (2) I need to prepare. I think my plan should include moving out of an urban area and having survival gear* and stock piles, but I have to make enough money first. I have plastic bags and duct tape for dealing with the rain in Seattle, but I don't have proper clothing for living in Alaska or Yukon Territory or New Zealand's mountains.

    Also, girls do like me but don't want to stay with me because they think I'm fucking crazy. I'm going to have to marry a street girl who doesn't care if I'm fucking crazy and doesn't want or have any hope for a normal life anyway. Most people have too much too lose being with me and listening to my foolishness (from their perspective).

  • amokta

    According to businessinsider, the French have moved up the league table of average income or standard of living, apparently – so they are doing ok!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Also, they have more real assets and less financial assets if I recall correctly from the Credit Sussie data. Last I checked though, they still have a money system that features compound interest (yes, the very thing we are profiting from may end society).

  • raised_by_wolves

    My ADHD powers are sometimes amazing. I was concentrating so much on trading, writing, and especially charting (you guys should see the charts I don't get around to posting) today that I forgot to eat or drink anything (not even beer). Since waking up, I think I just used the restroom for the first time and drank a glass of water for the first time. I have yet to eat anything but will remedy that shortly.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Plenty of suitable clothing in NZ for you to acquire!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Cheaply? Or am going to have to make a 10x account profit first? Can one buy used clothing suitable for climbing mountains?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Did you know that women in NZ are more promiscuous than men?

  • Eva S

    Sounds like paradise. Good research, Wolfie!

  • Eva S

    Are there mountains in your area? Perhaps you can try living in the mountains in the US and see how you like the bugs and being disconnected from the Internet first before you decide to move to New Zealand?

  • convictscott

    Its probably quicker to pull out a pencil and paper and manually backtest, and then when you havea refined concept take it to the computer. Once you get practiced at it its very quick.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, I thought I it was an important angle to cover 😉

  • jacksoo

    yeah, but have you seen them!!!!!!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, there are mountains. That would be the equivalent of backtesting, eh?

  • Eva S

    Exactly!!

  • Eva S

    My ex-fiancé always talked about moving to New Zealand. Finally he decided to test the waters and spent about 2 months there by himself. He definitely is a womanizer. For some odd reason, he came back and never talked about New Zealand again.

  • Tooncez

    Want to race? The first test will be on the dailies for a year.

    Then how about a year's worth on the 1 min charts?

  • raised_by_wolves

    No, I can't say I have. If that's going to be a problem, then maybe I invite Eva to go with me. Then again, I haven't seen her either. 😉

  • Eva S

    You could be surprised (in a bad way).

  • raised_by_wolves

    Although it's bad that he cheated on you (I'm assuming by the way you are telling the story), it is good that you discovered this before marrying the jerk.

  • Tooncez

    I'm going to ass u me that you mean /si//gc, etc.. instead of slv/gld etc…

  • Eva S

    I don't know what exactly he did in NZ. I was just guessing that perhaps he was not that thrilled by those promiscuous NZ girls.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I don't know what you look like (are you really a talking cat?), but you are intelligent (though too trusting of the system), and no one can take that away from you.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sorry, I misinterpreted. I probably shouldn't be getting into this anyway. I'm sorry if I offended you in anyway.

  • Eva S

    No, the cat is not my picture…

  • Eva S

    No offense, I thought there was a compliment somewhere in your statement…
    Speaking of New Zealand… I love to travel, and I've traveled to ~90-100 countries so far. But I've never wanted to go to New Zealand. Why travel so far just to see mountains and sheep?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Well, I trade SLV and GLD but usually take /si//gc ratio signals since the important moves often occur overnight but inconsistently use SLV/$SPX and GLD/$SPX ratios. Let's start with futures.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    raised I was a twenty something in the eighties and went to Canterbury University in Christchurch NZ. In those days they didn't seem particularly promiscuous, but these days if you believe the popular press they have the attitude of try rather than buy; They seem to have bought the Cosmopolitan line that it's all about the pleasure of the moment. I've heard they are quite predatory and often paralytic. Anyway I don't think this young women of the 21st century attitude is particularly limited to the Antipodes.

    Probably if you got the truth from the Secret league of Women, you would find that Women have always been more promiscuous than Men; It's the same Men tapping lots of different Women who buy the sweet talk and marketing speak of these Men. It's just easier to be secretly promiscuous as a Women, we men are useless liers and inevitably get discovered.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I know that of course, but I do my best to imagine you as a talking cat just like I imagine Stainless Steel Hamster as a talking hamster. It makes your comments like, 'I think I'll go for a run now' uber funny.*

    *That may just be my weird sense of humor though.

  • Eva S

    I do have some feline characteristics, though..
    BTW, I think I have the *best* avatar in here.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    No disastrous bugs, bears, snakes, wolves in NZ Mountains just weather to be prepared for. I spent many months and years living in the Mountains of NZ; ice cold rivers were our bath. It was always a luxury to build a fire under a 44 Gallon drum filled with water. Much older now and have fond memories.

  • raised_by_wolves

    A compliment or two.

  • Eva S

    If I were to move to a remote place, I would probably chose an island in the Philippines.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'll give you second best. What kind of feline characteristics? I've ruled out whiskers. Do you mean characteristics like being independent?

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Eva you heretic. NZ is all about the Gasp. The views from high atop the Mountains are heaven on Earth. But then I am not well traveled so you may have seen scenery that harks back to Gondwanaland Land elsewhere I certainly cannot speak for your experiences.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mountains are the third most beautiful form in the world after clouds and women.

  • jacksoo

    I've travelled extensively and can confirm : NZ can be spectacular.

  • Eva S

    They do have beautiful mountainous islands in the Phillippines.

  • Eva S

    Yes, independence.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I was just going to ask about the effects of melting glacial ice on the sea level? Mountainous islands would solve that problem.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Independence in a positive way? I'm independent, but probably more in a negative way. For instance, I socially isolate myself, and I can't keep friends much less girlfriends.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Go to Trademe.co.nz and see; this site has been identified by Ebay as supporting the largest % of active online traders per capita of anywhere in the World. By the way NZ is a thin country so being online is a cinch and getting better all the time.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Damn, you get around. I've only been to two countries (Canada and USA) for sure and possibly a third (Mexico) but can't remember for sure.

  • BobbyLow

    That's what I did. I did the whole thing manually because it allowed me to look at each indicator carefully. I took all the trades that would have been triggered by my new rules over the past 13 months and posted the results of what all my indicators read at the time the rules said to enter the trade as well as what the indicators said when the rules told me to exit the trade. In order to avoid any mental massaging, I used the worst prices of the day for entry and exit. All of these numbers were put on paper first and then I put them on a Spread Sheet on my computer in an order that made sense to me.

    I can't believe that I've actually gone so long without a written plan with rules that have to be follow to the T. Until now.

    In the past, I've always ad-libbed and modified. And the problem with that was when I did something that was absolutely stupid and then traded my way out of it, it would give me license to do the same stupid thing all over again. Only perhaps the next time I couldn't trade my way out because the market didn't cooperate. Or in reality, I didn't get lucky.

    I have no choice but to accept that I had to go through all the shit that I did just to get to where I am right now. I suppose the reason I have been so undisciplined is because of my being kind of a ball buster all my life. I have never big on rules of any kind. But WTF? It's not like I have to follow somebody else's rules – only my own. Duh?

    Today was one of the first days in a long while that I had no real expectation of whether the market would go up or it would go down therefore there was no disappointment. Felt pretty good actually. 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    Is there any reason not to go New Zealand? For instance, in the event of a nuclear war, is New Zealand a high or low probability target? On the subject of geopolitics, have you thought about whether China will try to take you over in the next hundred years?

  • Eva S

    I like Europe and So. America the best.
    I meant the landscape, culture, food, and men.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Chile is one of my favorites judging by the pictures, which are by definition a cropped view of reality. Have you been there?

  • Eva S

    No, I've never been there. I've been to Argentina many times and it's a fantastic country.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    China will attempt to take everyone over! Nuclear war centering on NZ a non event. NZ doesn't even have strike aircraft anymore.

  • raised_by_wolves

    While Tooncez is possibly working on backtesting the rules I gave him (he seemed to express interest), I think I'll follow your suggestion sometime before Sunday. Yours is a more visual approach.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Bud Conrad the Gold Bug loves Argentina as an Investment. Prior to that he touted NZ. I think he has land in both countries.

  • Eva S

    Many people buy land in Argentina and Brazil.

  • Tooncez

    I, for one, would like to be in a high probability site. You've seen the simulations. Really, there's never just one nuke.

    Everybody's got to be a sore loser. I mean, if you are going to play that way, I'm taking my marbles and going home.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for your assessment on the probability of NZ getting nuked. I don't mind an earthquake or a volcano killing me because I rather enjoy nature's display of power, but something about being nuked suggests that I wasn't intelligent enough to see it coming. As for China attempting to take everyone over, at least we have a leading indicator—Taiwan.

  • Tooncez

    Yeah, while you've been systematically insulting the top three most beautiful things on earth, I've been slaving away. Now, if you could just check your email…

  • Eva S

    I am worried much more about being assaulted or hit by a car on American streets, than being hit by a nuke.

  • Tooncez

    What? Are you saying mushroom clouds aren't a thing of art?

  • raised_by_wolves

    I have heard the colors produced during the explosion are amazing. Imagine watching from enough distance to not immediately die while tripping on LSD.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I thought about not replying as an insult to you. But then I thought, “No, Tooncez isn't beautiful so there is no need to insult him so I will email him back.”

    Are things clear or at least more clear now?

  • Tooncez
  • yudhisthira

    Second vix close higher within BB.
    http://screencast.com/t/uwMjGV2lK9d

    XLF since July low, not so exciting for bulls.
    http://screencast.com/t/3rDRjBgk

  • Tooncez

    So you've moved on to insulting people who are giving you stuff?

    Ok, I assumed that you could get 400 shares traded at 3$. My sim runs per 100 shares (about $1250 at start), so I included an adjusted commission based on my assumption. It's on GLD, SLV (not /gc, /si). It doesn't look for doji's just greater thans. Hand tuned the trailing stop to 2.1% and the target to 2.9%, which produce at least a local maximum.

    This is your silver long:
    http://screencast.com/t/8HFq6DgSijsj
    http://screencast.com/t/kPFelqqDqnA

    Oh, and here are the entries and exits, in case you want to verify quikly “by hand”:
    http://screencast.com/t/eMN2fqBN

    edit:*I can tell by looking at the most recent dates that making the exit rules smarter could reduce the number of entries and exits & improve total win $$… (see third red arrow from left – http://screencast.com/t/A8y8dsvK4Zy)… Let me think about that…

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    I know this is irrelevant, as the only game in town, and that is the Global town, is the US Fed – oh and the Chinese “mother of all” QE activities.

    http://www.conference-board.org/data/chiefeconomist.cfm.

  • yudhisthira

    Some bright green lines on 60 min SPX.
    http://screencast.com/t/lDhC4PLzzD

    Triangle apex coming soon.

  • average_minimalist

    this is beginning to feel like that other place…

  • Tooncez

    Maybe this is more interesting? Same assumptions and rules, 1m timeframe…

    http://screencast.com/t/WfMwC3nJofQ

    with 315 trades… think how happy your broker would be. Maybe someone could test a longer timeframe?

  • Tooncez

    Of course, I guess that isn't so great, considering buy and hold…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This…. is….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Spartaaaaaaa!!!!!!!

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What do you mean?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Let's stick with trading RBW – your eating schedule seems to annoy some folks (see above).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can we please keep things to trading related subjects? Thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Trading related please!

  • average_minimalist

    lots of socializing lately

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes sir.

  • raised_by_wolves

    A cursory glance at the stats and equity curves makes it seem like my rules need help. In real life, I have taken an entry based on the rules applied to the daily and the rules applied to the weekly and then stopped concerning myself with the daily time frame and just kept the trade on based on the weekly.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Maybe someone like me. 🙂 I'm too sleep deprived right now but anticipate doing this over the weekend.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hehe.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I gave you entry rules but never exit rules. I'll work on those too.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Your assistance is greatly appreciated.

  • raised_by_wolves

    For some reason, I didn't look closely enough to see that the day before (barely) closed inside the BBs. I was counting today as the first day. Oops, my bad.

  • Brishort

    Thanks for adding this reply

  • Eva S

    Mole, I apologize! We did get carried away a bit with our socializing last night. 🙂

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Ted-Thower/100002191695027 Ted Thower

    Prayer is the wonderful medicine to cure any type of disease and mental pressure. Pray from your deep heart and get a good place near toppers.

  • Anonymous

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  • Anonymous

    LinkedIn
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  • Anonymous

    LinkedIn
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    Accept Michael Faulhaber’s Invitation

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