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Pre-Memorial Day Freebies
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Pre-Memorial Day Freebies

by The MoleMay 21, 2015

Let’s face it – most of you guys are pretty much outta here, and I myself am planning on taking Friday off. So for whoever is still left I’ll throw out a few juicy pre-Memorial Day freebies. Caveat – unless they start moving in the coming few hours I recommend you wrap them up or put your stop at break/even.

2015-05-21_spoos_briefing

Spoos – if you still find them near that stack of Net-ines then a long position may be in order. I’m long here 1/2R with a stop  below the daily NLBL at 2113.25.

2015-05-21_EURUSD_briefing

EUR/USD – ya’ll know I hate this trade but I’ll take it anyway. If that 25-day SMA gives way then we’ll probably retest the lows. Don’t think that’s happening just yet during the long weekend (yes, Forex will be trading Monday).

2015-05-21_wheat_briefing

Wheat long near 515 with a  stop below 510.

2015-05-21_soybeans_briefing

Soybeans – grabbing a long here with a stop below 936.5. It’s soft support really – 1/2R only.

2015-05-21_gold_briefing

Gold! Very speculative long position here – 1/4R only. On a drop below 1202 we’ll probably retest 1195.

That’s it – see you later this afternoon. Now keep it cool and frosty and don’t get too crazy playing the swings. Remember, we’re going to see increasingly diminishing participation starting today – not that we saw a lot of it yesterday, except for that fake out spike to the upside.

You are not paranoid – they ARE out to get ya – watch your six! 😉

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Billabong

    Out of here? Turn the computers back on! We’ve got two days of possibilities … plus a news moving event tomorrow on Yellen speak (or lack of it) … LOL

  • Billabong

    It’s interesting you picked GC for a spec long, I had sell signal on it yesterday.

    EDIT: Different lens …

  • Skynard

    Short triggered on crude oil:)

  • BobbyLow

    Trying to Swing trade CL has been a real MF over the past couple of weeks. I’m wondering what might change over the next couple of weeks to make it any different.

  • BobbyLow

    Music to my ears. :)

  • BobbyLow

    Stopped on Short GBP/USD overnight for +.32R and flipped to long this AM. Long GBP/JPY took off overnight and that one is now a risk free trade.

  • Skynard

    /ZC making her move:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, it was only a temporary ST setup – this happens quite often.

  • Skynard

    Stuck with the plan:)

  • Skynard

    Would not expect any large moves pre-holiday. Never FN know:) I like suprizes!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You never know – participation will be limited so anything can happen.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yikes – flat as a flounder…

  • Skynard

    Good point!

  • Ronebadger

    Blue arrow paid off yesterday – Classic

  • Skynard

    Yen about to make her move as well:)

  • Skynard

    Crude may have unfinished bus around 60.60 (stops)

  • tradingmom

    Mole — any thoughts/comments on the two days this week that triggered possible/probable downtrend day alerts but did not turn out to be downtrend days?

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Time will change. :)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Risk-taking is the perfect undertaking for the “Allzeit bereit” … ( “Be prepared”) concept … the Boy Scout

    motto.

  • Skynard

    Nice, like the high risk trades:)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Christmas and New Year are / have been great candidates over the years.

  • Skynard

    Out of /QGQ 3.07

  • Skynard

    Added short crude

  • Skynard

    Sweet spots, hehehe.

  • Skynard

    Here comes 370

  • DudePlunger

    Great call on Wheat, I’ve been stalking that one since yesterday’s close. Got long at 518.25 this morning, considering jumping at 528.25 for a quick 10pts (it got to a high of 528 before pulling back so far.)

    Going to wait and see, don’t want to take profits too soon on a good trend up. Watching that nearest spike high around 530

  • Skynard

    That is a nice trade, want to see /ZC do some catch up:)

  • DudePlunger

    I also have an order on USDJPY at 121.24, which just got filled. Still long GBPJPY from yesterday, it’s near 2R. Trying to end the week on a high note :)

  • Skynard

    Do not think the Yen will make it’s move until China data tonight.

  • DudePlunger

    I’m playing it on an 8hr timeframe, so that’s fine by me :).

  • HeadNShoulder

    another MM happy melt-up day?

  • mugabe

    the market? moon cycles? invasion of Poland?

  • Skynard

    In SPY May 212 puts @ .14, expire tomorrow.

  • mugabe

    no one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

  • mugabe

    yeah, lots of drunk traders with fat fingers. Figures.

  • Skynard

    Seeing exhaustion on crude now.

  • Billabong

    Very nice … It’s still hanging out around 60.60.

  • Billabong

    The buy / short signals will tell you when to move. Campaign management is the tough part. CL made a nice move from 43 to 63. Almost 50% in 2 months … invites volatility as participation changes from one group to another. Is it greed now or TA common sense?

  • Billabong

    Exhaustion on crude … I’m exhausted watching it! On the SPY puts, do you expect to make $$$ on them? For my learning library, not for trading them.

  • HeadNShoulder

    Intraday holding wise? o.O….

  • Skynard

    ya, added around that price. Time to short the bitch:)

  • Skynard

    Full short now.

  • Skynard

    Shorted /QG again

  • Skynard

    Kind of like too, never know as Ivan has said. High Risk=High Reward. That is only 10 pts on the index by EOD tomorrow.

  • Skynard

    Sweet, you can buy more beer:)

  • Skynard

    Put of coarse:)

  • Skynard

    Hourly signal day:)

  • Skynard

    Out for a scalp

  • DudePlunger

    Watching Wheat closely here. I am going to try to get out above 528 if this can run to new daily highs.

  • Skynard

    Now long

  • DudePlunger

    I wonder, why be in a trade if you don’t expect to make money from it?

    I expect to make money from every trade I’m in, until my stop is hit and I’m out. But that’s just me :)

  • Skynard

    Lunch about over my furry friends:)

  • Skynard

    Fuck ya, should see a retest 30. Got your back, let your winners run:) Looking for 70 on corn

  • Billabong

    It’s all about Levels of risk and probabilities (in the end, it has nothing to do with making money) …. Those puts may offer 100:1 return with a guaranteed loss if it doesn’t move (hence my question). Where as, most of my R probabilities are 1:1 and I’m looking to up my game to a minimum of R 2:1 or 3:1. Some times it’s easier to pass on a trade with a small probability for a trade with better odds.

  • Billabong

    Thanks … you’ve done the probability math … it makes sense.

  • Skynard

    Done as much as I know, big return

  • Skynard

    Got crude reversal

  • Skynard

    WTF, another smorgasbord

  • DudePlunger

    I just bailed, 525. Got in 518.25, solid little 1 contract day trade. Maybe I’m wrong and it’ll continue higher, but I’m concerned it’ll pullback and get me at BESL here (it’s near the daily nearest spike high.)

  • Skynard

    Nice trading, a sell off will propel these NF’s higher. Get your 1-2 R and get the F out.

  • DudePlunger

    Time will tell.

    I’m still long USDJPY, stop at ISL, which is not doing well at all. Might be a classic case of cutting your winners short and letting your losers ride. Exact opposite of what you want to do when trend trading.

  • Skynard

    Ya, see dollar weaknes and looking for Yen to strengthen very soon.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Told ya guys – expect the unexpected!

  • Skynard

    Can’t take this anymore:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wow – if the trading bot of the future is disgusted we may have hit a new low in market aberration.

  • DudePlunger

    With the way wheat closed, I look like a genius :). I trusted my gut on that one, I just didn’t feel right holding it overnight. Nice to see price action confirm it though!

  • Skynard

    Nice call DP, looks like /ZW caught up to /ZC instead:)

  • Skynard

    Nicely done!

  • Skynard

    Ya, my fuel cell unit needs a recharge. Nothing a 12pk can cure:)

  • mugabe

    The euro stockmarket juggernaut continues .. up about 20% in USD this year .. nice smooth trend up for the most part

  • DudePlunger

    Trend still looks good on a daily. My exit was A+ though intraday. Could just be end of day profit taking, that happens on these grains.

    I’m still holding the USDJPY, at ISL (120.835)

    I just exited 1/2 of GBPJPY to book a 0.8R, stop at break even on the rest.

    If both stops get hit, I’m down -0.38R for the week. Nice worst case scenario, I’m comfortable with that. We’ll see how it turns out!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s how I envision Skynard:

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What the Mole is listening to right now:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FwV0cNUV4s

  • Skynard

    Lol, nice!

  • Bill

    It might be a bit too electro poppy for you but you should check out the new Madeon album. It’s awesome.

  • Ronebadger
  • Skynard

    Yen kicking it, carefull longs

  • Bill

    Yeah, I took an inside day breakout long on CHFJPY that was doing nicely and is now pooping itself.

  • Skynard

    Nice, check out 5 min lower panel. Fake

  • Skynard

    Looks like a trading range to me.

  • Scott Phillips

    Yes. Possible probable is NOTHING for that indicator, it needs to be 90% above/below to take into account.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • HeadNShoulder

    I don’t have much data but looking at recent two of them, still it’s a 50/50 chance.

    May 14th 92.52% Predict: up, Result: up

    May 18th 92.7% Predict: down, Result: up

  • Bill

    Wizard… that’s a great song.

  • Ronebadger

    VIX – Triple Bottom? over 30 days…

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/143877580;

  • Scott Phillips

    Im also long ZW, but I think the disparity with ZC is very stinky. With the potential longside breakout in DX I’m not particularly hopeful for this trade

  • Scott Phillips

    Looking at two of anything is stupid.

    Look at 100 or save your time :)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    One of the mega challenges of using double and triple tops or bottoms as an indication of something lies in the actual definition of them … very often a ‘close enough’ loose definition is applied … this can tie in with a bias looking for validation.

    From a strict traditional TA perspective, the actual entry point for a buy … on the basis of a Double (DB) or Triple (TB) Bottom is a break of the intervening high/s between the DB or TB … should that occur, a some market players derive a price objective as well.

    From my strict definitional approach a Double or Triple Bottom must be to the same exact price low or lows … for me this gets around the close enough good enough issue … after all … ‘close’ only counts with hand grenades!

  • Scott Phillips

    Disagree completely on the whole idea. For example a market doing a very deep retest of a low, a market double bottoming exactly, and a market breaking the old low by a few ticks and rallying. All these things represent fundamentally a market trying and failing to break an old low.

    Near enough IS good enough in TA, because we have very little precision in any case. The best edges are only 60:40 propositions.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Excellent Scott … it takes more than one to make a market.

  • Skynard
  • Skynard

    Yen

  • Skynard

    /NKD took profit 20155 (100 hourly)

  • Skynard

    Short again 20230

  • Skynard

    /CL hourly

  • Skynard
  • strider

    Darth Mole showing volatility for stocks, bonds, notes, crude, FX and soybeans.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yup – got a lot of alerts over night…

  • DudePlunger

    Active morning for me:

    USDJPY – stopped out for 1R Loss overnight then flew higher hours later, such is trading!

    GBPJPY – I jumped on my remaining half, +0.9R on that trade. Solid, as my rules would still be in stops at breakeven (BESL) at 188.13

    EURGBP & GBPCHF – both were nice setups this morning for me, and I didn’t mind EURUSD either (which has since moved the most of the bunch.) I entered EURGBP, plan on holding it over the weekend (most likely.)

    NQ – I have a buy order for just 1 contract at 4538.25. This is a today only campaign, I’m aggressively managing it. Will be out before the close FOR SURE.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m taking the day off – well, kind off – working with Vankar on a few things…

  • BobbyLow

    I have the same stop on GBP/JPY which would bring me within 4 Pips of BE. I didn’t take half profits though so it is what it is. I’m also Short GBP/USD.

    Opened Short on Long Term Bonds via TBT yesterday and I’m still Short the DJUSEN via DUG. I got stopped on my short crude yesterday -.88R and am going to give Crude a “Time Out” for awhile. :)

    Whatever makes it through the day, I’ll hold through the weekend.

  • newbfxtrader

    Heh. I read you was gonna wank off…

  • DudePlunger

    Hey could you shoot me a quick email, dshporin at gmail. I think we can collaborate some.

  • SirDagonet

    hey DP… can I file your email away (& send you mine)? I may want to visit NYC one day in the future & would want some advice & recommendations… I’ve been twice, but short trips each time (just overnights as a leg between traveling overseas)
    Don’t worry, I’m not seeking a spare bed or a guided tour, and no offence if you’d rather not…

  • DudePlunger

    For sure. Anyone else who wants to can as well. I just don’t want the bots to get it :).

    Always happy to be NYC tour guide

  • BobbyLow

    Just sent it.

  • DudePlunger

    I don’t know why I even bother with the indices. It was a small loss, out at 4530.

  • Skynard

    Heading for relaxation up north on Lake Houghton, good weekend all:) Selling is good, crude saving my a$$ today.

  • Billabong

    Bond mkt closes at 2 pm today….

  • Billabong

    BBs tightening up … 12 trading days since $62 high.

  • Billabong

    I can’t believe I’m getting a solid sell signal on YM. I’ll be watching this one EOD.

  • evilasevildoes

    got out of zb short 153.19

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Bill – the bar / period of entry is the point of maximum danger … hence the need to dispassionately assess whether to hold on to the position or fold is immense … human temptation is always to give it more room … give it a chance … when this manifests is a clear sign that something is amiss.

    Your day of entry (assuming identical data) appears as a Reversal down bar … my empirical definition being – HH and HL and Lower Close than the previous Bar and having a black real body.

    This is / was a clear sign that the market does not want to go up … translation … why wait for a 1R loss (at the ISL) on your long to happen … take a smaller loss and come back another day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Skynard

    Yen will explode very soon. Daily is primed for an explosion upward.

  • Skynard

    /DX div now on 4h

  • Skynard
  • OzarkHillBilly

    I’m not the biggest DnB fan but that’s not too bad.