Project Run Away
Earlier this morning I was reporting on the fact that some of the currencies and futures launched early and were well on their way by the time you rolled out of bed. If you subs were quick then you may have been able to hitch a ride when I shot out an email about the E-Mini to all of you:
On the left (hourly) panel you see the spot where I tried to kick everyone out of bed. We’ve pushed up quite a bit since then and are now approaching the daily NLBL that I talked about on Sunday. And what I proposed then appears to be in the making right now:
That’s right – unless buyers are getting cold feet before the close we may just finish the day below the lower 2.0 BB line. And you probably know what that means by now – a first step into a bonafide VIX sell signal.
Crude meanwhile has given us a wild ride. As you may recall I have been trying to mount this sucker starting Wednesday. We got a good entry at the 100-hr and then got stopped out by some crazy candles. Nice fake out and I’m sure most of the bulls got off the bus right there. We however got a second chance when we breached the 25-hour and 100-hour with one steep candle. As Heidi put it so nicely: You are either IN or you’re OUT! I’m happy to be in, in particular since we just pushed through the 25-day SMA. The 100-day looms above and we may face some resistance. But so far so good…
The greenback also shot off into the sky and then painted an instant and brutal reversal. I was spared by this one but could have easily been taken for a ride, I’m not going to sugar coat it. But I did suggest last week that the easy run was over for the Dollar and it’s possible we’re going to see a correction. Frankly, this being a short Thanksgiving week I am not fully convinced we are going to see reversals across the front just yet. Let’s see what happens later at the close and through Wednesday.
A few more goodies for all you hard core rats (and the ones who didn’t get the week off):
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
GBP/USD – if you dare to be early then you might want to pick up a few long contracts at the 25-hour here. If you’re more conservative then wait for a push past the daily NLBL.
EUR/AUD – trading the hourly long as the daily may paint some kind of retest variation long here. Stop below the 100-hour. Very speculative trade – so if you take it play it small.
NZD/USD – I’d play resistance first here but the money trade would be a breach of the NLBL. Unfortunately the 100-day is right below so it would only be a quick swing trade.
Copper – about to run into a double wall here – we’ve got the 25-day and 100-day on a collision course. I think the conductive metal may cause a short here (pun intended – yes, I’ll be here all week). If she breaches I am long with bells on.
This entry was posted on Monday, November 19th, 2012 at 1:47 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.