Project Run Away

Earlier this morning I was reporting on the fact that some of the currencies and futures launched early and were well on their way by the time you rolled out of bed. If you subs were quick then you may have been able to hitch a ride when I shot out an email about the E-Mini to all of you:

On the left (hourly) panel you see the spot where I tried to kick everyone out of bed. We’ve pushed up quite a bit since then and are now approaching the daily NLBL that I talked about on Sunday. And what I proposed then appears to be in the making right now:

That’s right – unless buyers are getting cold feet before the close we may just finish the day below the lower 2.0 BB line. And you probably know what that means by now – a first step into a bonafide VIX sell signal.

Crude meanwhile has given us a wild ride. As you may recall I have been trying to mount this sucker starting Wednesday. We got a good entry at the 100-hr and then got stopped out by some crazy candles. Nice fake out and I’m sure most of the bulls got off the bus right there. We however got a second chance when we breached the 25-hour and 100-hour with one steep candle. As Heidi put it so nicely: You are either IN or you’re OUT! I’m happy to be in, in particular since we just pushed through the 25-day SMA. The 100-day looms above and we may face some resistance. But so far so good…

The greenback also shot off into the sky and then painted an instant and brutal reversal. I was spared by this one but could have easily been taken for a ride, I’m not going to sugar coat it. But I did suggest last week that the easy run was over for the Dollar and it’s possible we’re going to see a correction. Frankly, this being a short Thanksgiving week I am not fully convinced we are going to see reversals across the front just yet. Let’s see what happens later at the close and through Wednesday.

A few more goodies for all you hard core rats (and the ones who didn’t get the week off):

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Monday, November 19th, 2012 at 1:47 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • ridingwaves

    I can’t help but notice that Dollar H&S on weekly, almost similar time frame and both shoulders just above 360sma at the time….note this is end of day cash settle on weekly…dollar at 80.88 right now…
    http://s8.postimage.org/k8m6s9fw5/USD_11_19.jpg

  • ronebadger

    There’s something about Heidi Klum mentioning “in and out”.

  • I Bergamot

    I was pocking around in Finviz, and look
    IWM short interest is 97% ! How is it even possible?

  • ridingwaves

    Did mole take his copper setup last week?…some extra gravy there for the turkey on today’s candle…

  • ronebadger

    correct me if I’m wrong, but almost ALL of the outstanding shares of IWM are sold short and not covered?  2.5% of those share are still quite a few, as there appear to be about 21million shares outstanding…if I did my math right…so 40 times more shares sold short, than remain “unshorted”

  • I Bergamot

     Yep.
    Except, may be their data is incorrect.

  • Pug

    ok ok ok, Mole and the 25 MA talked me out of it. I’m out of my short GBP/USD (8 pips profit – Ha!) but will wait on a breach of the daily NLBL to go long. Still not convinced it will breach, but the long does look like the better setup with all my hourly MA’s moving up.

  • newbfxtrader

    When its risk on you dont want to stand in front of the train my friend!

  • ridingwaves
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nice link – but I’m not getting the reference.

  • ridingwaves

    thought you liked it so much there, you might be interested in house and citizenship….

  • AMCabrera

    hi, eur/gbp still looks pretty to me so I bought some more to add to my current positions and added some eur/aud longs.

  • Turps

    Did you notice how the daily Zero was telling us this move down could be over, two big red candles and the daily was back up to zero. Nice 

  • Joe_Jones

    Yep, nice.

  • AmazingLarry

    Platinum is looking attractive. It’s held the weekly 200 and 20, the daily 200, 100 and 20 SMA’s after backtesting and bouncing off the descending resistance TL on Friday. Just punched through the hourly 100. Daily BB’s putting the heat on, too.
     

  • Tronacate

    TDA comes through again…..

  • newbfxtrader

    Double top on daily on usd/zar me thinks. Interested?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Daily zero is updated, not seeing that

  • BobbyLow

    Agree on the EUR/GBP and I still have it.  I’m also Long EUR/JPY and EUR/USD.

    So I’ve got plenty of Long EUROs.  I’m reluctant to add any more because my Stops on these three by the EOD should be all be ITM. 

    Lagarde also appears to be in a snit about Greece although it wont make any difference as they appear to be desperate to kick the can down the road some more. 

    Hey what’s another 56 Billion?  Just a mere bag of shells.   :)

  • Joe_Jones

    It is there on the lower panel

  • Joe_Jones

    No doubt about Step 1

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I’m seeing the Daily Zero sitting at 1377.51

  • Joe_Jones

    oops that’s true

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I think the hourly hinted at a reversal last Thursday & Friday though;
     a positive divergence and the 0 line held at Frdays low 

  • Turps

    oops from me too, that is from the close on 8/11, I was thinking it was Thursdays close

  • Joe_Jones

    After a day like that, I suspect tomorrow will be boring. I yawn already.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – it’s in the bag.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ll do it tomorrow.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t understand…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    What’s with the Batman avatar now?

  • badflightrisk

    A/D Chart

  • AMCabrera

    taking 25 pip loss on eur/aud and replace at 1.2300

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Aquí viene pericoloso :-)

  • AMCabrera

    what a sausage pizza 5:30 pm EST can be sometimes. lemme guess cd (roll eyes) well whoever from the holy see (credit agencies) needs to send me email next time around so I could have shorted euros real quick and bought it cheaper. :)

  • AMCabrera

    @molecool LOL danger danger. My only regret is that I did not eat dinner first THEN come back to see these specials.

  • AMCabrera

    eur/gbp is right on the 1hr 25sma and 4hr 25sma. Like a  magnet.

  • pouquinhos

    Patience rewarded the wait …. today after 7 sessions….good shot on spx.http://spxinvestment.blogspot….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dinner is for closers! Where were you all day?

  • Joe_Jones

    Close ;-)
    I’m MAD Cat, Dr.Claw’s faithful companion in evil deeds. Mwahahahaha!

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, nice little profit taking on the /ES. Wonder if we get some more of it tomorrow? Stopped out my day trade. Will attempt to reload it just before Euro open.  

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Next victim, good one for all you rats:)
    ID/NR7

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Since you showed me yours I show you mine. As I said over the weekend – the probability for a bounce was high.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Turning into a pumpkin – see you guys tomorrow.

  • AMCabrera

    I’ve been lurking Kaiser. Im still in recovering mode boss so I have been quiet. 

  • Skynard

    ST target @ 85.6

  • newbfxtrader

    how about its cousin /zm?

  • Skynard

    /KC looks ripe. Check out the open interest, another extreme reading:)

  • Skynard

    looks just as tasty:)

  • itcomesupinwaves

    damn a lot of shorts entered AUDUSD this morning, ratio is short again

  • fast and steady

    ZeroFX not working?

  • Skynard

    Looks like EURUSD OOC.

  • Skynard

    That means it goes higher I think:)

  • fast and steady

     They are both OOC on my end.

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Yes, seems to be the more likely outcome, minutes coming out in minutes.. Then Stevens speaks later tonight (or morning on east coast).

  • Skynard

    Both running on my end now.

  • fast and steady

     Only working on chrome for me. Firefox stinks. What an unrobust pos.

  • Skynard

    You think that’s the problem? Never noticed it before:|

  • fast and steady

    Yup. Only working on chrome.

  • Skynard

    Got the 20 pip discount:)

  • amokta

    Good call by Mole on frid/weekend – what a bounce, mother of all bounces :-)

  • itcomesupinwaves

     good entry there at the hourly pivot

  • Skynard

    You mean the NLSL?

  • newbfxtrader

    I find Chrome more stable anyways.

  • Skynard

    Added to EURUSD on that pull back, full pos long:)

  • Skynard

     Yes, looks like the squeeze from hell again:)

  • Skynard
  • Skynard

    Long now at the hourly NLSL:)

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Yeah I like to use daily/hourly pivot points as a point of reference too.

  • Skynard

    Got quite a few positions on now, looks like we have the green lights. Flicking switch, Click:)

  • AmazingLarry

    Sky, what do you make of the OI? Sorry, not understanding the correlation but do see the reading is crazy low. Thanks.

  • Skynard

    Quite the opposite of a trade that is over saturated. Here is /ZS, ounce it reached a peak interest/buyers are no more.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Hahaha… that mini shake-up at euro/usd was fun. Manged to clear off early at a high and steal some chickens along the way down. Now long and contemplating… Lol… powerful green candle just occurs in the middle of typing ;)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     All cleared now.

  • Ivan

    Hi guyz … you will be hard pressed to get a better example of what many see as the perverse nature of the markets than the recent (Moody’s) movements in EurUsd … funny-mentals have emptied many an account!

  • Ivan

    Correct chart attached

  • itcomesupinwaves

     What time frame is this chart?  Looks like it’s slightly broken the 200 DMA as well.

  • Ivan

    90 minute chart

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    News don’t matter.
    ps.  The language of the Market is Korean. ;-)

    http://s8.postimage.org/6i8ba0tyr/temp1.png

  • Schwerepunkt

    As a Korean journalist I knew back in the 80s once asked me: How come Bush lose erection?  
     
    Needless to say, I had to stifle a laugh.

  • captainboom

    WTF?  I load TOS this morning, and *none* of my custom indicators are available.  Anyone else have this problem?

  • Skynard

    +1 /KC, dipping toe on the pull back.

  • Tronacate

    Took GC short at the break from the 25Hr…..so far so good

  • amokta

    Is this Ivan Krastins, of Listen to the Market fame?
    Great to ‘hear’ from you :-)

  • Ivan

     You got that one in one … nice pick-up.




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