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Push Back
63

Push Back

by The MoleFebruary 7, 2017

We seem to remain on course and the current push back observed almost across the board could actually turn out to be a positive as it establishes a retest zone above our entries. Of course this assumes that this correction does not turn into a more pronounced sell off. So let’s start with reviewing some of our ongoing campaigns:


2017-02-07_ES_update

The E-Mini has been holding and our stop near 2277 managed to survive the after market action. Nothing do to here really – I am keeping my stop where it is and will await further instructions.

2017-02-07_ZB_update

Treasury bond futures are not looking as rosy but we’re still in the game here as well. Once again I’m crossing my toes and will keep my stop where it is.

2017-02-07_gold_update

Gold is looking very positive at this point as it keeps painting higher highs and higher lows. The current dip lower is a retest of the 100-day SMA which is just about to start swinging higher. We are in excellent shape here and I intent to ride this campaign all the way should we be so lucky to see a more aggressive push to the upside.

2017-02-07_CL_update

Crude however took me to the woodshed overnight and I’m currently waiting for a floor pattern or spike low on the short term panel. The formation on the daily panel is looking a bit wild right now but we should always remind ourselves that this is very typical for crude and that sideways periods often precede trending ones. My main concern here is to get a good seat on the bus ahead of a big move. I will keep you guys abreast of any promising developments here.

2017-02-07_ZM

Soybean Meal is a small long if it manages to drop toward 331.6. My stop would be below 329 – no reason to be stingy here. I do very much like the daily formation in that we had a BB compression which now seems to be resolving. However it’s also possible that it’ll go right back to doing nothing for a few contracts, so I’m only taking half R sizes here for now as I don’t want to get whipsawed.

2017-02-07_ZL

Soybean Oil has been a lot more active and I’ll deploy my other half R here if it touches 34.23. I’m a stickler for getting good entries – sometimes I miss out on good ones but more often than not this has turned out to be a good policy over the past few years of volatile tape.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Tomcat

    Covered CL. Didnt get the entry in natty.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I just realized that wrestler’s lower leg is….{shudder}

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where’s my crew?

  • ridingwaves

    yikes….that is not pretty..
    kind of like the crude action in side panel
    https://s23.postimg.org/yi3b24wkb/WTIC_2717.png

  • ridingwaves

    the gap is closed on NG

  • ridingwaves

    SI Weekly, very interesting juncture near with possible golden cross, 50 hasn’t seen the 200 since 04-13, we were young back then….
    https://s28.postimg.org/etu9ppqql/SI_weekly_200_overhead.png

  • ridingwaves

    for billabong, SLW comment yesterday….look at the 200 holding it back….so far
    https://s24.postimg.org/9ny4ecfo5/SLW_2717.png

  • ridingwaves

    here for a bit, cheers from the left coast….

  • StockTalker

    From my lens bulls making an attempt at the high, if they fail we could see some serious fireworks.

  • StockTalker

    /TF not buying it

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    But are you SELLING it? 😉

  • StockTalker

    Yep, been short from 1375. sold /NQ again

  • StockTalker

    Long /CC here, stop 2020

  • StockTalker

    Here we go

  • StockTalker

    WTF, seems like every time I post my stop it gets taken out

  • StockTalker

    2nd attempt @ 2012

  • Mark Shinnick

    Went short miners little while ago, and short energy ery from yesterday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Edd

    long DUST 24.66, 10min chart, ISL 24.92

  • Edd

    out .72r

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice :)

  • Edd

    thnx Mark, got 4.2R earlier on NUGT.

  • StockTalker

    /TF break of 1360 will be good for bears. Sell and hold

  • StockTalker

    Zero showing a busted divergence. Downtown

  • Darrell Osgood

    Is that guy’s left leg supposed to twist like that?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long tvix, tight stops.

  • StockTalker

    Short, see you in the spring:)

  • kudra

    ACUR – penny micro bio i own just shot up 63% on big volume. Something might be up.

  • StockTalker

    Zero worth every penny today!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Every day!

  • StockTalker

    Yes sir, drew a fantastic map for a clean entry

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where did you enter?

  • StockTalker

    On the retest

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice…

  • StockTalker

    The signal is in bear territory now

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Indeed. But it’s still weak – let’s see if it holds into the close.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Honestly nobody really knows what is what there and I don’t really care for a closer look 😉

  • Edd

    nice!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..it’s not looking good for the bond Bears.
    in a down-trend, but ice is melting.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a447a919b5da450d08a74298607e382b528a4eed54f90de37546c774757b6cae.png

  • kudra

    i’m still well under water on it, but a promising move of over 100% today

  • Edd

    Took off my daily NUGT long at break below yesterdays high earlier today.
    I will put it back on if it rebounds back to 13.25 and carry overnight.
    I will go long daily DUST if it closes above 27.63 If neither I will wait and see in morning.

  • StockTalker

    Now for a break of /TF 1350

  • kudra

    Thanks for your insight. I’m still long DUST at 26.08. Holding til tomorrow.

  • BobbyLow

    Sounds like a man with a plan. :)

    I’ve been sticking with my plan but trying to find a trend from my stable has proven to be very difficult. My 2017 Results have sucked so far.

    Fortunately, I remember Scott saying something to the effect that “sometimes trading is very easy and sometimes trading is very hard.”

    Sounds like a simple explanation but it is what it is. OK, I’m ready for trading to become easy again. Now if the markets would only cooperate. . .

  • Edd

    Looking at my daily trades in context with my 10min plan has made a world of difference to my overall profitability. My daily has morphed into a hybrid whereby I am trading levels of price action determined by % of ATR. Based on end of day price will determine if I hold overnight or not. Navigating the RUT this way has been very succesful vs. my more traditional way I was trading daily

  • Mark Shinnick

    Standing aside for the time being…see what happens.

  • StockTalker

    Mole signal marks the spot.

  • Yoda

    going to try a small risk-off trade with SDS

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reality check: “Weakness” but, again, no movement? ..or “day’s not over?”

  • StockTalker

    Breakdown here would set off some flares.

  • StockTalker

    snap

  • OJuice

    Can it actually get moving though…

  • StockTalker

    Think we have price movement with participation.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    Congrats on being able to trade the RUT. :)

    I’ve flipped back and forth from the Daily all the way down to 10 Min and back again. Then I ended up comprimising and changed my charts to 195 Minutes which gives me 2 even Bars/Candles per day. This time frame has been a real bitch for me over the past few weeks. About the only thing I know for sure is that the moment I change my format again, whatever I change to will then begin to go spastic. Then after a period of time, I’ll take a look back only to find out that my original plan would have worked out better.

    It’s kind of like after a back test is completed and you find something that has a decent probability of working. Over the course of the back test it was demonstrated that there will be many times when the system will show bad results. However, the overall good results outweighed the bad over extended periods of time and the test then becomes worthy of trading with real money. Unfortunately my stable had a great run prior to the beginning of 2017. So now it’s a case of being patient enough to work through this current crapola.

  • Billabong

    Read your comment RW. Miners held up pretty good today along with PMs. The test on price will come on futures expiration week. PMs have been slapped down on a regular monthly basis for years. One of these days the monthly slap down won’t work…

  • Edd

    Likewise congrats on trading oil. The RUT chart and oil chart looks very similar. I tried oil and never could get consistent with it. (I completely missed out on oils huge downtrend from the highs. ) Perhaps it is the event risks that would always seem to come out of the blue, I don`t really know. I had become a manic scalper through the lens of a 10 min chart a while back. I might as well been trading a frickin tick chart. When I went back to actually allowing the bars to complete within my base 10min system it was amazing the difference it made. I now have the time to keep an effective watch on both the Gold and Rut daily charts and most importantly be able to manage them during the day. Agree with current situation. We hardly have one R to work with on current B. Bands. I believe I told you I was concerned by bad habits creeping in on daily due to this crapola. Saltwater Dog called it see profit take profit. I think even after we finally exit this drawn out flat action, I will stay with my new daily plan. It will self adjust within the way I am trading now. This will only work for me as long as I am front of the screens trading all day. If I cannot be here, I do not trade the daily. Day trading the daily? I know it sounds convoluted, but it is working extremely well.

  • Billabong

    Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Oil was a good example this morning, I was stopped out on my long and went short when LOD kept falling during the morning session. By EOD I was down a small amount and then wallah, massive build AHs. This begs the proverbial question – will the price drop hold overnight?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Breckenridge, Colorado. Skiing my legs off with my son, and having a great time. Pic is top of Peak 6.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5941fe4b967b10858e2245a880a4eb66ca0408f8179079473a2f2e416e7e059d.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    awesome snow this year….

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yes it is. Got quite a bit today, and getting dumped on overnight. Should have some relatively deep powder in the morning. Absolutely love this stuff.

  • StockTalker

    Bounce /TF 1350