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Quick And Dirty Weekly Forecast
27

Quick And Dirty Weekly Forecast

by The MoleApril 18, 2010

I’m working on a little project today, so I have only limited time to throw out charts for you guys to sink your teeth into. However, what I dug up are some pretty sweet puppies, which I think you’ll enjoy. But let’s get in the mood first:

Alright, let’s kick some market ass 😉

We are thinking long term here. This is my radioactive fusion powered 5-day MA Copper/SPX chart. The MA is on the Copper futures and what we are looking for are long term divergences. Yes, long term – the short term is way too noisy for me to attach any interpretations. Quite salient is the ‘mother of all bullish divergences’ in March of 2009. Wish I would have seen this one back then as it would have helped in assessing the timing of the finale of the trend.

But wait – there is more. Let’s project forward a little and consider what ‘may’ happen if we get something that may look like the onset of Primary wave {3}. After the first major drop we would a see snap back into Intermediate (2) – which should not be confirmed by the copper futures. Remember – we are looking for divergences in the scope of Primary or at least Intermediate degree moves. Anyway, it’s a good theory – for now – let’s keep an eye out and put it into context along with some of the other charts I’m peddling here.

That’s this week’s shock and awe chart – I’m shocked that the CPCE’s 10-day SMA did not budge after Friday’s drop. My take – the bulls see this as nothing but yet another dip buying opportunity. Well – we shall see shortly.

During Friday’s session got dangerously close to busting outside the upper border of the 2.0 BB on Mr. VIX. Fortunately we did close inside – meaning no buy signal (yet). Doesn’t mean we won’t get one though – IMNSHO we might see a repeat of what happened late January.

I’m no P&F pro but that upper trendline I pointed out last week seems to have served as resistance – thus far. If we get a drop to 1,180 on the S&P 500 cash index this chart would show a first circle as a possible beginning of a downtrend. Not sure if that is a ‘confirmation’ of a reversal but it does count and becomes part of the chart, so let’s just go with that unless we hear otherwise from a P&F pro. I have highlighted the 1,180 mark on my wave count below as well:

You might want to open this one in a separate window/tab by clicking on it – it’s got quite a lot of detail. I won’t repeat all my comments here but suffice to say that I have a feeling that things are slowly shifting back into focus now. The retracements all line up quite nicely and we might just have ourselves a map here.

Soylent Blue means that we are either done with Minute {iv} or will be by around 1,180 – that P&F reversal point I highlighted above. I postulate that we may bounce a bit before that and keep it off the P&F chart – but that’s just a theory. If we keep dropping through that point Soylent Green becomes a lot more realistic. The target for Green is the 1,145 cluster as we are near a respectable fib lines, i.e. 38.2% on the way down and 100% of {i} on the way up. That’s right – I’m the tamer of ferocious fib lines – Siegfried & Roy have nothing on me 😉

Some other comments on the chart – I think it’s a decent map – keep it handy as next week unfolds.

Cheers!

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Turps

    Mole, do you see a possibility of a push down to the gap at 1125?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I posted a Boatload of charts. Indicators, not specific trade ideas….go with the flow. My favorite is the Fear Factor, screen cast herein

    http://screencast.com/t/NzUxNmFhZ

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/04/boatloa

    Vix/VXV is very cool chart.
    The Pound is getting pounded
    Total market has a beautiful reversal set of candles

    Stop by and comment please

    NQ is weak while ES is bouncing a little. Volume on futures is very large compared to the average Sunday afternoon.

  • amokta

    like your work! lets see if it turns out to signal a correction

  • ClutchShorter

    Nice charts, I agree we'll see a correction and that's all we'll see. I'm not sure if some of you are expecting a full market crash below March '09 lows. 10-15% correction before continuation upwards…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    thanks, we will see……closed out many short futures on opening gap down….

  • yudhisthira

    What time of night does the PPT arrive to help the Euro?
    5 am eastern?

  • skynard

    Seems to be dropping off, We have a double bottom and think it may be a good long entry.

  • Cerebro82

    Think or Swim just stepped their game up. Now they have 180 days of intraday price action. They previously had only 20. I like it. I like it a lot.

  • Gold_Gerb

    strange..I've always got 60.

    ooooooh, TOS. I stick with prophet.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, that's great news!

  • yudhisthira

    I'll watch for that. 1.337 would be 78% retrace of last leg up.

  • bananaben

    Good job Mole. I think this fraud case is actually quite serious and just the tip of the iceberg. The headline piece on ZH talked about the next five days as a “serious bout of risk aversion” (same guy sees disaster in 2011). Even my bullish friends liquidated a big portion of their positions on Friday – and they don't frequent bearish blogs like this. By the way, I found this nice updated reset chart:

    Updated Mortgage Reset Schedule
    http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/images/uploads

  • rosocecasita

    Psychologically & morally speaking: On the first real good news…

    The market sells off.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I fuck 'em both.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The Lloyd of the Rings

    (a) Drawing trend lines has been far easier on (GS*(SLV/GLD)). Also, the head and shoulders pattern is much more perfectly formed. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    (b) (GS*(SLV/GLD)) touched its weekly 208 MA, turned down, and collapsed under the lavender (208,0.309) BB support. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    (c) If the downtrend continues, there will be a test of the purple (208,0.618) BB support, which coincides with my 25% purple channel line. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    (d) Also, check out (GS/SPX) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    as well as ((GS/$SPX)*(SLV/GLD)) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • raised_by_wolves

    Try again. Your link didn't open.

  • bananaben

    Sorry – try this: http://tinyurl.com/yyo3gwz

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks. So, what does this mean? Cover shorts in 2013? 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    Gotta love ratios!

  • bananaben

    I guess so! Seriously, I want to get out of the dollar altogether well before then. I don't think most of the counterparties to the FAZ, SRS etc. will exist after all this shit goes down. If they are around it will be due to massive money printing and the dollar will be toast.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Keeping it simple, but not stupid.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • standard_and_poor

    We closed the last (15%)of our 100% long entry from Feb. 5 from 2101 Nasdaq at 2513 $COMPX or $SPX 1213 on Thursday, 4-14-2010.
    All trades were posted here. We're preparing to short come Monday morning 10% of account and plan to eventually go as much as 50% short on pullbacks in the market. Securities of choice will be FAZ and inverse emerging market etfs and possibly some semiconductors.
    My hunch is that this shorting campaign will not be a piece of cake and will be fraught with many fakeouts.
    My initial stop will be 1214 basis $SPX. Best of luck slopers and ratz.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Hey, those are like a new “Fear Factor”! good work.

  • bobthehorse

    Greetings from Bangkok where I am stuck after my holiday. Still running the short. Still targeting 920 on intermediate term view.

    The GS news is a red herring, it will all fizzle out – they've been doing this sort of thing for years, it won't come to anything. Of more importance is the harsh action China is taking to curb their real estate markets. Third homes are banned, second homes carry higher interest rates and require more equity – the sort of thing Western governments should have done but didn't. With all the indicators this stretched, it is only small changes at the margin that can turn equities.

    I won't really be in touch as I can't access ES on my Blackberry. But good luck all, just don't get too over excited on any GS news. GS is BS.

  • spicestory

    Hi Bob, nice to see you here in Bangkok. Hope you're not too distrubed on the local political gangters taking the street for their second homes. Just want to say hi, I am out of the city for a few weeks, if not will buy you some cheap local booze

  • gmak

    A mild post, some substance – long on hunches.

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