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Quick Sentiment Update
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Quick Sentiment Update

by MoleOctober 24, 2011

Well I (volar) have some mixed stuff to share.

First, in regards to equities, I have something interesting to watch- the Rydex levered ETF asset ratio.

This simply suggests that things are “overbought.” However, if we embed (like we did last santa season) this can last for some time. I personally would like to see this ratio near 1.9x or have the SPX greater than 7% above its 100ema (1310ish).

Now for the subs.

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Volar’s charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

First let’s look at FX.

Here is AUDJPY Rydex assets.

Clearly this is bullish longer-term.

Now on to the COT data.

Same as Rydex. Bullish longer-term.

Hard to believe, but the data is what it is….

And copper, like sentiment data, shows some potential.

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Best of luck, unbiased trading,

-Volar


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve started my stats refresher class.
    I now remember what variance is.
    wish me luck.

  • Anonymous

    LOL!

  • volar

    : ) variance of price = 1STDEV bollinger band width mate. 

    Tho I dont think this post had any stats or seasonality (a first in a while i think)

  • Anonymous

    Wow, even for a short squeeze, NQ tape looks stupid.

  • Schwerepunkt

    NQ is catching up to the other indices.

  • Anonymous

    SPX is 100 points lower in comparison to NQ iN July. (cca 1350 vs 2400, today 1250 vs 2400). TRAN and RUT are not mainstream indices. SPX and COMP are.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Kids are still trading ZeroEdge – LOL 🙂

  • Anonymous

    NO mole please lets not even mention those types im afraid there find this shelter!

  • Anonymous

    Now there is a spike! Ha?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Is anyone watching ZeroFX? EUR/USD is looking very interesting.

  • Anonymous

    yes. divergence?

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    dow 12000 – MMs will target that?

  • Anonymous

    That IS pretty 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Remind me not to try shorts – stopped out twice with tight stops (even tight stops lose money!)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (it doesn’t, but I am taking a refresher, this emotion stuff is crap!)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sometimes, the fire fighters just step back and let it burn.

    sometimes, the oil drillers just step back and just let it blow.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Having no stops might help in this trade…:)

    I know it’s against the rules!

  • Anonymous

    I don’t see any actionable pull-back signals yet.  Plenty of signs that upward momentum is tailing off, but it can “melt up” for quite some time with things like MACD or RSI declining. 

  • Anonymous

    dammit. yes. i am a toddler!

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    where’s corporalcarrot today?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes.
    me and skynard have a little competition.
    if a new high is made, throw an uphill channel on it.
    (1.40 here we come)

  • Anonymous

    Dubai

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Dubai, don’t you read the f’n comments?
    😉

  • Anonymous

    Move gone parabolic: the end is nigh

  • Anonymous

    Why not? MSM would love to print 12K by Wednesday. Bulls would be saying ‘I told you so’ again, Bears decimated again and Wednesdays EU Summit meeting results becomes a ‘sell the news’ type event.  Will be interesting to see what the other side of Moles ‘Gobi Desert’ is going to look like. A vast wasteland of dead bulls & bears maybe?  A nice correction is overdue.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    no..where

  • volar

    volar’s in-laws @ dinner: “what is this riot stuff about on wallstreet?”

    Volar: I dont know, what riots are you talking about?

    volar’s in-laws: ” but dont you work on WS?”

    Volar: yes- well I take other trader’s money…. if that means I work there I am not sure….

    volar’s  in-laws: “Well why dont you know about the riots?”

    Volar: The last time I watched news was like 2006… tho I think I did see a crowd of people near the capital come to think of it…

    volar’s  in-laws: ” so how do you trade/ invest without news?”

    Volar- how many illegitimate children walk the street simply due to the fact of naivety and… … … emotional decisions?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Here:
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=24690#comment-340549573

    Newcommers – if you want to see the last comments of some person.
    Find their Avatar, click on it, click activity.  it will show the last comments made by person.

  • Anonymous

    I think if the move you are planning  for doesnt happen, then exit at your stop – ‘hope’ and trading dont mix, i have realised 🙂

    I think i trade better with fewer trades placed over days or longer rather than intraday trading

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    cool, i find intraday trading a headache myself..

  • Tronacate

    Any trend e-mail today??

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My bull friend went puts on FAS, Friday.
    apparently he doubled down sometime this AM.

    just got the call, he’s in the ER getting them surgically removed from his posterior.
    if they successfully remove them, his account will be suspended for 90 days. (excessive day trade)
    😯

  • Anonymous

    By George think we have it!

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    didn’t you f’n warn him?

    😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL.
    no, I didn’t.

    he was bashing me Friday about how good he was, and all the good calls he made over the last few weeks.  How my T’s were silly.
    ..didn’t give me any credit for some sound/key council here and there.

  • Anonymous

    Erm . What?

  • Anonymous

    We are very close indeed from the FIB 61.8% retracement target
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2011-04-12&en=(today)&id=p25813559275&a=226823824

  • Anonymous

    this comment section is getting a bit zerohedge’d up in the past few days.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    every trader worth his salt is watching that line.
    you know it.

    comment was directed at JJ, stupido DISQUS.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/5e31a682-65d0-4dd9-a2bf-45d56c81d4d9/2011-10-24_1233.png
    my little atom bomb im long this par, Im sure most of you know this, since last week.

  • Anonymous

    Still trying to make use of the Zero, fall below the 0 for a change;)

  • Anonymous

    uh?

  • volar

    ya if we hit that and trade >40ema 2stdev bollinger I think some pull back should be expected.

    Tho Carolan is saying NOV 7th FWIW

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/f10c127f-3b4c-4784-ad3a-f7a7d6710932/2011-10-24_1040.png

  • Anonymous

    Mole is fine tuning and testing. May get one tomorrow or the next day.

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sum the squared distances of each data point to the mean.

    ah yes, college memories.

  • volar
  • Anonymous

    Indeed, i must resist the urge to try to be ‘right’ by re-shorting on a whim
    I tend to do this when i have some accumulated profits, risk-management degrades

  • Anonymous

    2 longs for every euro short now.

  • Anonymous

    A bit stretched above the value of II, Full short position taken;)

  • Anonymous

    will you guys just be careful. It isnt called a zero sum game for no reason. Anything held for to long of a period or if caught playing with this thing too much you end up being zero.  This isnt your fathers market anymore. The movements are FAST and HARD…

  • Anonymous

    This is going to be fun

  • Anonymous

    Getting the hang of Zero, althought need to remain more patient;)

  • Anonymous

    We could still get one last thrust higher, but at this point I don’t give a shit, the up move is toast.

  • Tronacate

    Was there a trend alert e-mailed today????

  • Anonymous

    I learned that lesson last year… lol.

  • Anonymous

    no

  • nyse

    Those FAZ weeklies are looking mean.

  • Anonymous

    Be inclined to agree with you.  RSI sloping downwards (lower lows, lower highs).  Zero Lite has made a very nice negative divergence as well with the lows (compare lows of ~12:45pm and ~2:15pm on zero lite vs index).   
     

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I got one 😉

    Was just testing it today. Didn’t you read my weekend post?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a body in motion tends to stay in motion.
    stop staring at the shiny knife.
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Watch the videos mate – watch the videos:

    http://evilspeculator.com/?cat=42

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I wouldn’t post Chris’ charts here without his permission. Going to remove it unless advised that he’s okay with that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry Volar – I could not remove the chart so I had to remove the comment.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Note to myself – don’t incur the ire of the mighty Gerbil…

  • volar

    no worries… on his page- figured he had no problem showing it as I am a leach there  😛

  • Anonymous

    Amen!

  • Anonymous

    exactly my point 

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    200 ma at 1274.61. Anyone thinks it can’t go there? 🙂

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    then again, pick me up some around $40.
    hehehe  (chart to follow)

  • Anonymous

    200 ma is meaningless for trading purposes IMO

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    1) NEVER say ‘NEVER’

    2) 200ma is very important & works every time, unless you have a position ON.  
    then it doesn’t matter, and you will be accused of mental m*sturbation.

  • Anonymous

    I never use moving averages for trading. Did when I was first starting out, but now they just get in the way.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you must be a quant analyst!

    (you have to be a loyal reader, to get the joke)

  • Anonymous

    it was trend day on my books, but i’m not counting TICKS, so its just for my own use..

  • Wave_Surfer

    Since we crossed the Gobi desert, wouldn’t it make sense for 1260 to become a powerful base of support?
    Although we are losing momentum, don’t up moves seem to coast a long time with little momentum, as opposed to down moves which require strong momentum in order to keep going down?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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