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Quiet Monday
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Quiet Monday

by The MoleJanuary 25, 2016

Over the weekend I have been working on a few system related projects. For one I implemented an equity curve filter filter into Thor.  If you’re not familiar with EC filters then please take a look at my pertinent post from two years ago. Having observed over a year of live Thor action now it seems to me that both sell offs and earning periods come in clusters. The idea here is to limit drawdown periods of course until market conditions are more favorable. It is an approach that has served us very well on CrazyIvan and I think it’ll work with Thor as well.

Talking of CrazyIvan – now that Scalpius is out of beta and appears to be running error free I am planning to offer CrazyIvan as a LAMM service as well. So if you’ve been trading CrazyIvan manually for the last two years and are tired of taking manual entries then this is your chance to take the easy route. I will probably keep the candle roll overs in the current custom session (i.e. 7:00am, 15:00pm, and 11:00pm) as this is what has worked. As the saying goes – if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

2016-01-25_crazy)van

As you know CrazyIvan is a slow grinder of a system – it ain’t pretty and it’s a bitch to trade manually. But you can’t argue with the fact that it’s held up well in almost every tape imaginable. The live trade log is available here – I will add it to our system page later this week. Anyway, if you’re interested in trading CrazyIvan via the LAMM service then contact me at admin@ and I’ll put you in touch with Mark over at Vankar.

2016-01-25_spoos

The E-Mini is still clinging to that daily NLBL at 1890. My long position was actually stopped out prematurely on Friday as I forgot that my strategy was set to close down on Friday night. So I just repurchased my long on a little dip lower this morning. There really is not much to do here right now. Three scenarios I see happen here:

  1. Soylent Green: We continue higher until about 1970, at which point most of the remaining longs would head for the hills and wait for instructions. Odds 40:%.
  2. Soylent Orange: We drop once more (just to drive everyone crazy) and then continue higher after most of the stops have ben touched (mine included). Odds 40%.
  3. Soylent Red: Straight down from here. Odds 20%.

Nothing that wets my appetite on the setup front this morning. The recent few weeks have made me extremely selective and unless I absolutely love a configuration right now I will give it a miss. This is not a market to be trifled with.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Round we go

    nice mole, I petition you to up the soylent green to 50% odds :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m pretty comfortable with the odds I have supplied. As the tape progresses those odds will shift of course.

  • pete

    Mole, the “pertinent post from two years ago” link goes to a 404.

  • Round we go

    i bet the zero says higher now :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • Round we go

    uco bought 8.30 stop 7.95

  • pete

    Awesome. Thanks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ooops…

  • ridingwaves

    1910spx volume hole will need Fed dove talk Wed. or Draghi on Thursday to give MM’s QE 29 and counting

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Chopfest today

  • saltwaterdog

    I mentioned (and posted a good link) the challenge of emotionally attaching onself to the outcome of a trade in the last thread. My head-slapping moment with this issue was looking at my stats…. I have a strike rate of 40% on my system, therefore I logically expect to lose money on any campaign I enter. Clearly, over time, I expect a net positive aggregation of those results, so the attachment is simply to the micro picture. I “should” lose money on any given entry, and that realization, as simple as it is, facilitated acceptance and a pretty peaceful attitude about it.

  • Huey

    My opinion is that this depends on whether you’re trading mechanically or making trading decisions yourself. For me, when trading a mechanical system it’s best to detach my emotions since I have no control, but if I am making decisions I need to be in the zone, and having the mentality of “losses are ok, they happen” will cause me to be complacent with losses. Instead, I trade better when I have the attitude that I hate to lose, and winning is the only option. That is also with a discretionary win rate of about 40%.

  • mugabe

    do you mean you’re more demanding about your set-ups if you’re fired up not to lose?

  • Huey

    I try not to think about losing, more about firing myself up to only take winning trades. At the end of the day when I tally up what I did I of course accept that there are losses, but in the heat of the battle I want to play to win.

  • Huey

    As a side note, this thinking can cause me to overtrade so I have strict rules about how many stop outs I’ll accept per day before quitting.

  • mugabe

    ok. so we’re talking about daytrading here with tightish stops?

  • Huey

    The bulk of the discretionary trades I take are intraday so I suppose so. But the same really applies to my rule-based FX strategy too, though I am not doing very well in that account so maybe that is part of my problem 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long DUST 16.78, gold diverging to my eye, tight stop

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saw this earlier. I agree. For me, I call it being hungry and trading hungry. I had up down cycles and when up I got complacent. When you say “I hate to lose” etc…. I have that but in reality (for me) if you go in with anything less than 100% effort you are sloppy. For me the little details that get to ground level are that I wait for better set ups, now that I know what a set up even is ;-0, I am in no rush to deploy money every day now. When I got complacent, I threw money around, I didn’t wait for the best possible set up. I often entered early etc.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Things look reasonably promising for longs w the low volume sell off. Still two hours for a curveball to happen and maybe see that gap below filled

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    My stop is slightly below the lower part of the potential consolidation zone at 188.25. If I get stopped out, will look to go long if gap below fills at 186.75

  • ridingwaves

    until 1910 is breached any rips look good to short..

  • BobbyLow

    Afternoon Folks, I’ve been out for most of the day and am pretty much in a holding pattern with a “very shaky” long in Crude via UCO and a decent 1/2 position short of Basic Materials via SMN. I’m currently stalking GBP/JPY for an entry and waiting on a possible newcomer to my stable in the NDX to see if it closes below Friday’s Low or if it want’s to take a walk on the upside.

    BTW, I changed my Avatar to a picture of the Crab Boat “Time Bandit” from the TV Show “Deadliest Catch”. I’m thinking about changing my name to “Time Bandit” as well. The Time Bandit and its crew fish for different kinds of Alaskan Crab in the Berring Sea during the middle of the winter under sub freezing temperatures and dangerous seas. You know, kind of like what we do trading the markets in dangerous shark infested waters. :)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    This 5 min time frame daytrade setup has been working decent past few days although I haven’t traded it. Perhaps a bounce into close

  • BKXtoZERO

    Tough day for you yesterday. You hangin’ in there?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Change is good.
    just remember, T-Time is a registered trademark and all mine, MINE I tell ya.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Some more on Equity Filters – they have been around for ages in various formats … and adopted by some and discarded by others. It is a concept that I expound on with my students once they have constructed their own RBT.

    Not all RBT’s befit, or indeed need, an Equity Filter … like an on-off switch to determine when to take a signal and when to ignore the signal. Hence the best fit from an array of techniques that can be used as a filter is RBT specific.

    Below are 2 graphics illustrating different EqC Filters and what effect they have on the particular RBTs. They were part of a private CyberTutorial I conducted last year.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I stayed away from this one.

  • Time Bandit

    There I did it. You’re right, change is good. Molecool changed his, Gold Gerb changed his and BobbyLow is now Time Bandit. :)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    got stopped out as we slipped out of the channel looks like gap fill coming

  • ridingwaves

    out of Long Vix on overthrow here

  • ridingwaves

    just covered the gap up on Friday morning, I had 1875 as back fill for better shot at getting thru 1910…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • Round we go

    uco emergency stop hit 7.50. rats!

  • Time Bandit

    Yes thanks. Have to laugh though because after losing my power on Friday all the way until Saturday afternoon, I lost power again shortly after the game began and had to go out to my car and listen to the game on satelite radio. I’m disappointed but even if we had won, I don’t think we could have beaten Carolina. So it’s over and I’m on to next year now.

    But for proper perspective, a week before this game we were relieved to find out that a potential very serious health problem for my wife was ruled out for now. That good news was crucial. The results of the Patriots Game was not. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • BKXtoZERO

    football not so important compared to real life. Good news.

  • Time Bandit

    Come on you’ve got to enjoy the Pain! :)

    Seriously though, I’m not too far behind you, my current stop is at just below 28.41 on /CL. So we’ll see what happens and I’m not surprised.

    FWIW, I went short NDX via QID at the close. Initial Stop will be a close on NDX of above today’s high at 4268.11

  • kudra

    closed at 16.64. How’d ya do, dude? I played DUST a lot last year. haven’t touched it this month, although it made a hearty move from 13 to 18+. It’s been all QID this month. went sideways all day til last hour. 3 -4 PM selling time.

  • Billabong

    Wasn’t your SL 7.95 regardless of EOD?

    EDIT: I was glad to see you out of UCO …

  • Round we go

    yah. but i bet I got shook out. them stop bots are out of control. but trading in high volatility, is like that. will see.

  • Billabong

    Your “system” should tell you when to come and go. Bobby Low did a nice piece at the end of last week reminding me of his system and why it works for him and wouldn’t work for me, even though we have both moved to longer time frames.

  • Billabong

    We should always accept responsibility for our actions and not blame the “bots”. This was one of the key lessons I learned when I first came here many years ago.

  • Billabong

    IMO … CL still isn’t in panic mode to the downside. This is a classic PDC (patience, discipline and consistency) moment for longer term players like me.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Staying Power = Commitment + Belief Structure + Patience + Attachment

    Quite often one or all of the above is in short supply in people … regardless the field of endeavour!

    All too often a validated RBT is fiddled with and / or abandoned during a drawdown … the EqC below shows the path of an intraday RBT applied to just one market over the last 393 days … this required spending about 5 + hours every day with one’s multi-eyed girl friend … and that is a big ask for many as that does not fit with their personal DNA.

    It matters not if the RBT is stellar or not … a mis-match virtually ensures that the rewards will be ellusive!

    EDIT: Each person has their own definition of ‘stellar’.

  • BKXtoZERO

    still in

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh def better long entry down here

  • Billabong

    Thanks for the reminder … Just dissecting my belief system was not only painful but also took a long time … And it’s an ongoing process (out with old beliefs and the vacuum filled with new ones … rinse and repeat cycle).

  • BKXtoZERO

    Pardon the crappy chart but this was my idea for gold stocks/XAU/GDX. Idea is head and shoulders and a break down, coming back up testing underside of broken support. We’ll see soon.

  • Time Bandit

    Thanks.

    Regardless of belief system, nothing new here but I believe that there should be evidence that has been witnessed and understood by the beholder where and when price will establish an entry and exit point “before” any trade has begun. Finding bottoms or tops have been nearly impossible for me so I just try find momentum. I’ll get rejected, try again and could go as long as a few weeks before landing a really decent trend in any given trading vehicle. But as we’ve discussed before, I believe that the interim choppiness and rejection is well worth it in the longer term. I’ll most likely get stopped out of my current long and that’s OK.

    BTW, I think you and I are on the same page quite often. Sometimes we can be off a little but sooner or later end up on the same page. :)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Your DNA … continued from an early post.

    Eye for detail – Some approaches to analysis require a great eye for detail in order to be precise in the decision-making process. When working with various options metrics or well defined chart patterns or events the saying that ‘close only counts with hand grenades’ is most apt. Other approaches may be more forgiving, so to speak.

    Even the placing of an order to enter a market at a predefined level involves the need for an eye for detail not only with the actual price level … but also whether the order to enter should be a buy or a sell … as well as the size of the actual order. In the heat of the moment, as the saying goes, it is very easy to become dyslexic and incur an unnecessary loss from an ‘error’. I am sure that those of you reading this with a more optimistic bent will recognise that not all slipups lead to a negative outcome by definition!

    The eye for detail aspect of your DNA also plays a role in determining how many markets you can trade or even follow simultaneously. This can become rather critical when trading multiple markets as a day trader. Obviously this is not so critical when trading larger timeframes.

    Time available – By this I am referring to both the number of hours that you can apply yourself to analysis and trading without impinging on your life. Day trading, sometimes referred to as scalping, requires attending for a number of hours each day. Position taking, on the other hand, may only involve looking at a market once a day.

    Another factor with the time available aspect is how your actual time correlates with both your biological clock and the markets that you are planning to get involved with. Whilst many markets do trade on virtually a 24 hour basis they may be very thinly traded during your daytime hours. Additionally every market has its own internal Optimal Time Window when significant moves occur. This may, or may not be, directly correlated with reports coming out.

    TBC

  • mugabe

    ‘Not all RBT’s befit, or indeed need, an Equity Filter’

    The problem is, how can you know, as backtesting will/might not tell you?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M’gabe – all that we have to work with is the past when designing a RBT … hence your backapp with show probabilities of the future.

    In terms of actual rules / setups in a RBT … the probability of not having a rude shock down the track … is directly correlated with the setups being based on human behaviour or not … the greater the correlation the greater probability that the setups will continue to perform in a similar fashion.

    Both number crunching and data mining approaches have led to unpleasant outcomes in the past … think Long Term Capital Management debacle … inspired by some very ‘learned’ people!

    The character of the markets overall have not changed since I got involved back in early 1980’s … there were even flash crashes back in the 80’s whereby Silver went double limit up and then double limit down in 1 hr … leading to 50,000 out-trades.

  • mugabe

    thank you I’n .. very interesting

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So all we need to do is to design psychopathic random entry systems. I would call it ‘The Black Widow’. Hey, it may just work.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Is that not what the Fed does already ?

  • saltwaterdog

    Per Ivan: “Staying Power = Commitment + Belief Structure + Patience + Attachment”

    To me none of these are independent variables. They are all related to each other. I mentioned earlier today that I recently had an “A-ha” moment regarding detachment, as simple as it might be.

    It was once described to me as a matter of perspective….. be the card player, or be the house. If you are trading a Rules Based system, then you must be the house. The house doesn’t care if the player draws to a 21 for the big win, we all know the house strategy is to keep dealing hands. Two years ago I believed this in theory. Now I have truly internalized it.

    Commitment. Patience. Attachment. Imagine trading Ivan’s EqC presented below, with two individual draws of 30R lasting 2-3 months each. The house at the Wynn keeps dealing, but most of us can’t. Personally, I was EXACTLY the one who tinkered, messed with, and otherwise screwed up an RBT that would have been very productive otherwise. I had no belief, no discipline. I stopped trading that system a little over a month ago. I am Exhibit A for the argument for DNA fit as Ivan has called it recently.

    After ~1400 trades I lost 47R. The model of the ideal return would have been up nearly as much.

    Find what works and bore yourself to tears just doing it every, single, time.

  • ridingwaves

    were you not short with Dust play earlier? I’m trying to figure out the play above?
    If Au can get thru that trend line, a break out above 1137 it has good as any chance to roam to target on chart in next couple months or sooner..double top breakout could be the play-blue shade
    http://s17.postimg.org/urjoiapyn/Gold_PF_12516.png

  • saltwaterdog

    Incidentally, here is the EqC of the system I have been trading for about 10 weeks. As bored as I’ve ever been.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    S’dog … congratulations … I am sure you recall my saying to you very early in our Journey that … ‘trading is as boring as watching grass grow’ … in my case … ‘watching a coconut tree grow’ … is more apt.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for looking. I was long NUGT and sold for a nice gain. What I thought I saw here was (first) on 10 year chart when 63 horizontal support went recently I figured there was a decent move below it coming. I also saw this on safehaven which is marked better than what I drew. I did see it myself first. It IS on the edge I agree. Closer to a real long term bottom I think. I also think gold looks like a dead cat type bounce from the low so far and this is an extension of that idea with more leverage for me anyway. If this area goes I may flip long again.

  • kudra

    uh oh.

  • ridingwaves

    anything coconut is and has been a hot trend, you might be on to something..

  • TheRooster

    Biological clock is a huge ask – I used to trade an intraday SPX system that was very profitable but being based in GMT+10 meant staying up most of the night and unhappy home life in many areas.

    I am slightly less profitable now but much more in synch with my trading tasks

    Ivan, things have been hectic due to interference from my other job which required travel – will try to catch you later this week on skype?

  • TheRooster

    the biggest problem i need to solve is how to use your EqC when you can have multiple positions on. I have a solution, but it is not elegant

    I thought about running it at instrument level but the logistics have got ‘trading mistakes’ written all over it

  • TheRooster

    do you find it helps? what’s your control sample or did you see an uptick in performance when you adopted this mindset?

    we all have our own lens, but I have found for me that ANY focus on things I cannot control (such as the outcome of individual trades or recent p&l moves) increases my mistake rate and impairs my performance. Now I just try to focus on mistake free execution

    not to say i ignore my results but i try to review those in totality every month with a ‘performance review’ process

  • mugabe

    read a book if you bored:)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Long NQ 4189. Looks like last night was a big stop sweep for longs. ES hit the 1850 level and bounced right back

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Here’s what I’m looking at

  • Round we go

    nutz, fakeout then breakout.
    welcome to a bear market. still holding my two lots of tqqq average 85.40

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Bear market indeed. Anything can happen, stay nimble.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s 52R per year if you can keep it up.

  • mugabe

    I think it’s 200R!!
    Beers on saltwater!

  • kudra

    How about now? Dust at 15.95 pre-mrkt. Holding a triple leveraged etf overnight when the trade is going against you is like Russian roulette. And gdx makes big overnight moves.

  • Round we go

    es 4hr. at the midband. rsi trying to regain 50

  • Round we go

    you lost faith in my purple dot and chinese new year. looks like it headed for the 1150 retest, where it should fail.

  • Huey

    I haven’t tested this process explicitly, but in my intraday trading it’s helped me stay hungry to come back and try my hardest every day. A couple of months ago I just started taking any trade that fit my rules, now I only try to take the best ones and my stats have improved significantly. Similar to what you said, once the week is over I try to objectively review all of my trades, winners and losers. My EqC is below and the red line shows where I took some time off to reflect and came back with a hungry to win attitude.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    bounce on price..
    1Hr chart.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    )
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    )()) ( )))( ‘
    ((_) ) ((_)() )
    _((_)((_) _(())_)()
    | | || __| ((_)/ /
    | .` || _| // /
    ( |_|_||)__|( _/_/
    ) ) ( /( ) ) * )
    (()/( )()) (()/(` ) /(
    /(_))((_) /(_))( )(_))
    (_)) ((_) (_)) (_(_())
    | _ / _ / __||_ _|
    | _/ | (_) |__ | |
    |_| ___/ |___/ |_|

  • BKXtoZERO

    good call

  • saltwaterdog

    Thanks, the return is the left axis, the right is the R value for the histogram of returns by camp