Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Ready For Action
80

Ready For Action

by The MoleJanuary 11, 2017

I really had to drag my butt in front of my monitor this morning. Didn’t feel like trading and I for sure didn’t feel like I had it in me to do a post. But as the saying goes: No rest for the wicked. For I was quickly reminded of a sentiment I felt many times after convincing myself to brave lousy weather and hit the gym. For one I was glad that I went and most importantly I probably would have missed a kick ass session.

2017-01-11_silver_update

So let’s dive right in with an update on our silver campaign. Which barely triggered an entry near 16 yesterday, and I’m glad it did as it’s now time to advance our stop to break/even. I concede that it’s a bit early to do that but in this particular case we have a situation where silver is just about to either reach escape velocity or will most likely be stomped on again. Given the ongoing series of higher lows and higher highs it’s really time for this one to get out the gate.

2017-01-11_zl

Soybean Oil – yes, a bit of an exotic contract but I have enjoyed trading it in the past as it’s got a habit of jumping off like a 1964 GTO on nitro. Our evil mission of the day is to wait for a long entry near 35.4 and then put a stop somewhere below the 35 mark. And just like like the GTO she’ll either crash and burn or everything else in the vicinity is going to eat dust.

2017-01-11_dps

Sticking with American classics theme – here’s Doctor Pepper (created in 1880 – did you know?) which is painting a rather refreshing series of HHs and LLs on the daily panel.  The current shake out may just be a last kiss goodbye before it peels rubber and heads higher. So here I plan to be long on a recovery above the NLBL at 90.76 with a stop below 89.

2017-01-11_dps_financhill

Seasonality is looking a bit flat here which means we may have to be patient. But it’s not pointing down either and the starting in spring it’s got a habit of burning the shorts. Friendly reminder, you can click on the chart to get to the live version at Financhill which has cool tools and statistics.

More setups below the fold – please grab your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair:

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Yoda

    We should see a big move in PM today

  • Darrell Osgood

    My Magic 8 ball is stuck on “ask again later”.
    Come to think of it, that’s what my wife says, too.

  • ridingwaves

    that CL reversal after a bad report was crazy…
    starting to look like the market is being held up by very weathered strings..

  • saltwaterdog

    stopped out at the low on the whipsaw, again. Getting to be a repeated narrative on Wednesdays in this market

  • OJuice

    I’m looking for the possibility is that it was a violent shakeout re-testing the bottom of a range,

  • ridingwaves

    holy shit, never seen IBB sell off so hard…..Trump must have said something….

  • BobbyLow

    I was just going to say something about this myself. How about this BS? Last week’s report showed a 7 M Bl Draw in crude but there was a hidden nugget in this as inventories were reduced on purpose because of some year end tax. This year end draw was offset by almost an equal build in gasoline and distillites.

    Now this week, we are back to a decent sized build in crude and large build in Gasoline and Diesel/HO. But the headline is about the Saudi’s “talking” about cuts to Asia.

    “Talking” about whether the cuts will work and will they really, really cut or not has replaced the headline hot button movements of the Middle East Turmoil and Nigerians Blowing Darts at pipelines in the past.

    The Crude market has always had some kind of shit behind the scenes driving price that has absolutely nothing to do with supply and demand to the end consumer.

    My once profitable short is now close to BE. I still have a little ways to go before getting stopped but it looks like another Bullshit Short Squeeze to me. We’ll see if it has legs.

  • StockTalker

    There she goes

  • Yoda

    Europe’s close. Things should get interesting now.

  • kudra

    Long 1K shares of NUGT at 8.80. Big jump in miners in past 5 minutes.

  • BobbyLow

    Long Bond on the rise again. Hmmmmm.

  • Yoda

    Probably the sector was due for a correction anyway.

  • Yoda

    Keep an eye on the DOW, the weakest index now. If price falls below yesterday’s low and below the 25 d sma, we are likely to see some big red candles in the coming days.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/445f739fd61f7265a3e167fb150a8f1c88412583699f03c0bbe9b9131a131ea2.png

  • ridingwaves

    the sector has never recovered from Clinton tweet and sell off….worst performing sector over last 18 mos….

    it has way too many eyeballs on it that want to destroy it for my liking…

  • Yoda

    This should “hopefully” be a good trade until GC 1210-15.

  • kudra

    Out at 9.22.

  • Yoda

    LOL, that was quick,

  • Yoda

    Yup.
    Right, I prefer beaten down trade like L PMs, L TLT, S indices, S USD.
    Though at present my only position is L junior miners.

  • StockTalker

    VWAP back test

  • ridingwaves

    I think we just saw a minor preview of what could happen when Nero speaks…time to look at my long term investments and see if they are built to withstand what lies ahead….

  • OJuice

    Looking like a VWAP chopzilla.

  • StockTalker

    Ya, getting ready for that move down. Tape is bearish. In /ZW and /CC on this pullback.

  • OJuice

    To play devils advocate, it seems that there were two opportunities to start a mild correction, Monday and today. It is possible that there isn’t enough on the sell side and this will end up being a range bound consolidation of some sort.

  • kudra

    good call, but the day’s not over. equities re-weakening and miners re-strengthening.

  • kudra

    looks like it was too quick.

  • StockTalker

    Possibility but consider it unlikely at this juncture

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems that way. Healthcare as a entitlement component the 20 trillion debt monster looks to be in reversal.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m looking to short them.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..if (IF) it does, that chart would look something like this..

    http://tigerstrypes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/screenshot-lrg-30.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, its at a good inflection point at the moment.

  • BobbyLow

    Here is the /ZB (30 Year Bond) Daily with just 20 BB’s. Still say it is kind of strange given the surrounding circumstances. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/295ba6f85c206599fbc414e6de31e8dff18c50d220485e857d860f652b26da25.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rather exciting battle royale in miners today.

  • BobbyLow

    Appears that Oil is helping to prop Equities up at this moment in time.

    Guess it’s a case of the Bullshit floating to the top of the pool. :)

    I’ve found that I need to have pretty wide stops on oil swing trades no matter whether short or long and have come to embrace this kind of crap. I still have a little room left to go and it is what it is.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Personally, I have no confidence in long oil.

  • Billabong

    Looks like a $ sell-off + short squeeze…

  • OJuice

    Just technically speaking it has a huge base formed. If it can break through 54 it has a lot of upside potential IMO.

  • Billabong

    If $50 doesn’t hold then $47.50 … anyway, For me it’s currently $47.50 – 55.00.

  • BobbyLow

    Me neither.

    But I have to follow my rules and got a short signal last week so I went short. Now if we go far enough to the other side, I’ll have to hold my nose and flip to the long side. The only thing I know for sure is that one of these signals will stick and become a runner. What I don’t know is which one is going to be that runner. For this reason I take all signals as they come because as the man says “One good trend pays for them all”.

  • Billabong

    Big reversal today in DX and USD/JPY didn’t impact bonds/notes as much as I thought it would. And GC, which has been chugging along, showed a little more life today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    Long Bond has been easing my burden a little today.

  • Yoda

    distribution?

  • Yoda
  • Yoda

    myself, I can’t figure out oil, hence I stay out of it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    In my view, whatever directional trend move starts in the next 2 days would probably continue next week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not to sound snarky, but to channel the spirit-of-Scott.
    *you got some data to back that up*?

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like sellers took some of the shine off of the rise in crude just before the close of open outcry. We’ll see what that means for tomorrow.

  • Yoda

    I would have to compile those observations in a statistical meaningful way.

  • BobbyLow

    It’s funny how we can see different things in various trading vehicles.

    For me even though Oil is subject to BS like what happened today it generally has a mind of it’s own and is easier to track for swing trades.

    OTOH, I can’t track the NDX or SPX for shit. :)

  • OJuice

    Always good to push for more data.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    any edge we can get, I’ll take. yum yum.

    Here is a older link that ‘turn around Tuesday, may be actually Monday Night go- time.

    http://overnightedges.com/638/should-turnaround-tuesday-really-be-called-turnaround-monday-night/

  • Yoda

    Coming Monday is MLK’s day so US markets are closed. It would be a good time to F with some traders over the long week-end with large gaps at the Tuesday’s open.

    Also, this Friday is a 13 and we have a full moon tomorrow [Yoda hides]
    😉

  • Yoda

    If it were not for the negative div on the 5 min zero, I would have gone long now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RSI < 50 for quite a while. = not good.

    if it was above the ma50, hey = Life is Great!

  • StockTalker

    Geeezzz, in the dough, out of the dough. Make up it’s mind:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    did you just say 13?

    “In what may be a very symbolic, if not necessarily humorous flame out, D.C. Fire and EMS are working to put out a blaze Wednesday afternoon in the Watergate complex. The fire is on the 13th floor at a building in the 700 block of New Hampshire Avenue NW, officials said. Several floors have smoky conditions.”

  • StockTalker

    Picked up TVIX @ 666

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what a bargain, only a year ago it was $300.
    😉
    EDIT nothing like a 98% drop.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ZigZag
  • Yoda

    The afternoon session definitively.
    TRIN and market breadth did not support the ramp. Overnight session should be interesting.

  • Yoda

    Probably intentional to destroy O. and Chewie’s golden shower evidence
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Monday is a holiday? Again? Will it ever end? sheeesh

  • OJuice

    Only for Feds, banks, and schools I think. Most normal stiffs still have to work.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, I can see swing trade logic being good for crude since it seems to spend most of its time ranging…maybe more than other markets.

  • StockTalker

    getting short /CL @ 53

  • StockTalker

    Old Yeller on tonight.

  • StockTalker

    -1 /CL @ 53.05

  • Tomcat

    I got stopped out @ 53.10

  • StockTalker

    To tight

  • Tomcat

    Unfortunately it was not. My entry yesterday was too chit

  • StockTalker

    Oh, got ya. Trying to catch the end of a diagonal, see how it plays.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Now lets go fill those gaps below:)

  • StockTalker

    Beautiful candles:)

  • StockTalker

    Bears have an opportunity here.

  • Mark Shinnick

    The gaps now essentially filled I’ll be easing again into short miners.