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Ready For The Second Round
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Ready For The Second Round

by The MoleApril 3, 2017

Seems like copper may have been using loaded gloves as I got knocked on my ass near the end of the first round last week. Micky tells me that I got heart but fight like a god-damn ape. He also keeps rambling about laying off some pet shop dame for some reason, not sure what he’s on about. The second round is starting and I’m going straight for the ribs this time.

2017-04-03_copper

Well what can I say we handled that first round admirably and our stop fortunately locked in a bit of profit near the current price range. Given the spasmodic spikes as of late (see hourly  on the left – first down then up) it seems that we’re going through a shake out phase before the express elevator is taking off. If you look at the daily panel on the right then you’ll see that the 100-day Bollinger is increasingly getting pinched. Which suggests resolution is just beyond the horizon, especially for a busy bee contract like copper.

Given the current formations and the new spike low on the hourly panel I have decided to jump back into the fray with a long position. If you do the same then entries are permissible until about 2.64. Your and my ISL is placed below 2.6315 – the most recent hourly spike low.

2017-04-03_spoos

Our E-Mini campaign has survived the weekend and appears to be in good shape. I am pleased to see a continuation of the current support diagonal I suggested last Thursday. By the way there are still seats on the bus if you are interested.

2017-04-03_crude_update

Silver is just ridiculous at this point and seems to have boarded the express elevator to now realistic looking target range near 53. As you may expect I am advancing my trailing stop accordingly. In terms of tape reading this is a textbook example of a spike low followed by an immediate and merciless advance to the upside.

We don’t see this type of price action very often over in equities but it is almost a daily occurrence across futures contracts. The pattern I keep seeing over and over is mind numbing sideways action followed by sudden and nasty advances, squeezing the poor suckers still holding the bag. If you enjoy mixing mean reversion with trending systems then trading the futures can be pure manna from heaven. Or life in hell if you aren’t nimble and too opinionated.

Below the fold: My favorite setup for the day on the forex side. Plus I’m sharing very important medium/long term perspectives regarding bonds. Probably not information you want to miss out on 😉

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BobbyLow

    Happy Monday. :)

    Mole, on the third paragraph from the bottom I think you meant to say Crude target 53 not Silver?

  • ridingwaves

    that would be sweet, I hope
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K30e9O3Nng

  • StockTalker

    Down she goes, first target 2300

  • ridingwaves

    XLF is the clue or trigger, sitting on 100sma right now….

  • Tomcat

    Covered my Dec17 $HG.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    I’m stalking SLV and need a new high made on an hourly close for me to get back in Long. In the mean time, I opened a new short in NG and am still holding short Miners. Miners still appear to be working a range on my hourly and I’ve been giving unbooked $ back. If we get an hourly close on NUGT above $9.47, I’ll flip it and go Long.

  • OJuice

    If it holds, it is a nice back test of support. In my opinion if we get a gap up tomorrow or Wed it’ll be a runner.

  • ridingwaves

    yes, most of the red is tied to XLF right now but if breaks below the 100sma on daily, 50 on hourly, it could push other sectors into some deeper red. I like your scenario if not…

  • OJuice

    Yep. Have to wait and see for now. I’d be coin flipping otherwise.

  • ridingwaves

    the golden cross on weekly for SI is pretty big news….its been almost 4 years since the 50sma moved over the 200…..doubt if any retail is still around with that timeframe….they chewed up all metal heads..

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah the weekly is a great one for coulda, woulda, shoulda too. But the problem will always be carrying positions through all the craziness inbetween.

    I try to go with a trend which is probably better called momentum. My hourly “trend” is slow compared to a 15 Minute and the 15 Minute is slow compared to the 1 minute etc. But the weekly moves at Glazier Speed. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Crude, yes – sorry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WTF is everyone today?

  • OJuice

    Every time I put them down, I get punched in the nose. Every. Time.

  • Skidmarkalot

    In and out here Boss!

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    Can you give us a glimpse of what you see here so us newbies can try and see if we are right in our view?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m seeing a bit of a divergence near the lows today (double bottom on the signal) which was followed up by response spiker higher. This has to remain positive until EOS however in order to get things moving again or we have see continuation lower tomorrow.

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    thanks!

  • ridingwaves

    getting ready for Peru, Honduras…

  • Mark Shinnick

    In-transit most of the day; Looks like vol has failed at resistance today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice – take photos! (and post them here when you can)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hope it helped 😉

  • Scott Phillips

    The only thing the golden cross has going for it is a cool name.

    1999-2016 over 50 different continuous contract futures markets, golden cross has a success rate of 26%.

    Because a small number of those wins are HUGE and a significant number of the whipsaw losers are small, it *is* a positive expectancy system (1/4 of all winning trades are massive 10R wins).

    But it requires extreme diversification to be successful. Even 25 markets is not enough, it really requires a minimum of 50 markets traded to be successful.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    /HG was not impressed by your corner side pep talk! Reminded me of a little something like this.

    https://youtu.be/x9EHpFZrn90

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – I get him in the third round.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Spring break for the grandkids. Took them to the museum today.

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    I took the trade as well…looked like good risk/reward.

  • StockTalker

    Gap closed