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Reality Bites

by The MoleNovember 19, 2009

I woke up to Gmak’s very first and awesome post here and simply couldn’t believe the amount of participation I saw! And I’m not just talking about the number of comments – I’m talking quality of discourse, charts, insights, etc. Rats – I’m very proud of you today, this is the kind of blog I enjoy running and as long as you guys keep it coming like this I’m not going anywhere.

Well, I just lied there – I’m actually going to either Britain or Japan early December for about 10 days, but I’m sure you guys will do ‘just fine’ without me. Alright, time for a little update on the ole’ wave count.

So we dropped through the 23.6% fib mark – but this one is questionable anyway as I should probably measure it from the bottom of Intermediate X. But it’s the only thing that lined up, so I thought ‘what the heck’. What’s more important is the ever rising support line of this long term channel, which has kept the bulltards running, as it should. Yes, that’s right – you can run, but you can’t hide. Either those bastards dig deep now and push this thing into 1120 (i.e. Soylent Blue), or they will soon find themselves covering their long positions as we will breach this line for the 2nd time this month (i.e. Soylent Orange).

Here’s the long term picture. Besides all the fancy lines and mental masturbation I think what we should really focus on is the fact that in the past two months the bulltards only managed to pop this thing higher by a whopping 23 points. Running out of vapor?

NYSE A/D ratio now at 0.165 – wow, that’s bearish folks – if we close anywhere near those readings it might just be whoop-dee-doo time. Alright, I’m going to grab some morning chow and then will report back with more charts and goodies.

2:04pm EDT: After an overnight push up the Dollar has been dropping once the U.S. currency boys got their hands on it. Which is quite interesting, considering that equities have not mustered much of a snap back as of now and that NYSE A/D ratio remains unchanged at around 0.167.

But it’s OPX week, thus you should always expect the unexpected. Thus, I have set the 100% DXY retracement level at a conservative 74.58.

So, when correlating the fib degradation in the odds with the frequency I think going long the buck should not be attempted until 74.88 and if that one misses 74.58 might do the trick. Both spike out at around 18% frequency and the currently hold a 71% and 100% probability.

Yes, about that 100% mark – it’s where human mind constructs come into play (i.e. me), thus it’s the weakest link in this exercise. 100% does not mean that it can’t be breached – it’s simply a starting point at which we would expect an almost assured turning point – emphasis on the almost.

Again, the DXY odds calculator is exclusive to Evil Speculator courtesy of 2sweeties over retracementlevels.com – we are highly appreciative having access to such a fine tool.

3:04pm EDT: I’m looking at some patterns over here and think that they’ll try to run this thing up a little into the close. If you are short term short make your bets accordingly.

3:29pm EDT: Euro futures busting higher:

Does not guarantee a push higher in equities but the climate is favorable.

3:53pm EDT: Before you guys all buy the dip into tomorrow – this was just a scalp trading comment. The A/D ratio is still at 0.21 – which is miserable. So, there is no guarantee we see a rip higher tomorrow. I have not seen such a low ratio after a new high in a long time.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • WTFed

    Sweeet

  • amokta

    i feel completely 'deflated' reading the just released elliott wave theorist from ewi

  • dollar

    Whhop-dee-doo time! Well ok, now yer talkin'!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Sticking to one more new high, it seems. I can see that. Let the froth flow.

  • gmak

    Great big picture stuff. Here is some intra-day fluff to offset the richness of Mole's post.

    TD pressure is putting in higher lows and higher highs (ever since the fall and crawl began). The VWAP sure is acting as a roof. When I look at the DXY (and EUR) disconnect from SPX, I wonder which is the dog and which is the tail in today's version of correlation.

    I was reading earlier in Derivatives Week that a major bank is trying to get out of some illiquid correlation plays – maybe they feel that the correlation is about to go to 1, which is what happens when the financial system has a nervous breakdown.

  • Tronacate

    My SRS calls are looking healthier

  • cramar

    Can you give us a summary of what the EWT says? Anything we don't already know anyway?

  • TransworldDepravity

    Same here but, I'm more worried about the gap today unfilled while filling one from Monday. SRS doesn't leave up gaps unfilled.

  • Carl V

    I am not a subscriber but can you just summarize what they said ?? New bull market? New nnnth alternate count ?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Whoop-dee-do is code for whoop-ass
    …with breadth this negative the can is open

  • gmak

    I was just looking at an SPX market picture chart, and 1091.50 – 1092.50 is where the “market wants to be” based on volumes and how it keeps coming back to this point.

    The IMAP shows every SPX sector is red, and only TELECOM has 1/3 of its members in the green. It's broad based selling. Health care and Utilities seem to be clinging to life the best (are down the least) – which is a defensive play, no?

  • gmak

    You can file this under “No Sh*t Sherlock”:

    Pimco's Gross says theat the risk of bubbles rises on low rates.

    hehehehe.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    From a TA perspective there's continued weakness for FAS – sell signals on the 2 hr chart at 11:30am on the CCI(18) and the Stoch. We've broken below the 30 EMA and 200 EMA, which have acted as support before. As far as pivots for today go, FAS started right below S1 today and broke through S2 then S3. Recent retest of S3 was rejected and it looks like we just made a new low for today.

  • gregn

    Bernanke said that there are no obvious bubbles.

  • thunda72

    Thanks, Mole. Always love the 'long-term' charts. I'm holding quite a few QQQQ Mar10 puts and they're coming back to life. :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    In for a quick peak before heading back to work…

    Also not bullish… http://screencast.com/t/MjFhOWE0NTM

    Skål!

  • bshah

    why is AMZN puts are not moving much even if the market & AMZN itself is down…? Is it possible that someone can control the bid/ask on options also, or is it strickly the stock price and theta, gamma etc work on it…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Also short term H/S bottom setting up on /ES…

    Skål!

  • gregn

    Gotta love the big picture. That is not even inflation adjusted.

  • thunda72

    FHA loan-bubble is sooooo obvious. What a fool…. er, tool.

  • Publius Federali

    But how has GS done on their investments over those 11 years?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Sure ain't….

    Skål!

  • gregn

    up 1% I believe…

  • Tronacate

    Trying to fill as we speak……I'd like to see the gap at 10.20 from 11/9 fill today….THAT would be cool

  • gregn

    Short setup based on MAs in SPX. We are going back to test support. http://screencast.com/t/MWNlOGZjNj

  • gmak

    I'm scared to think of the meaning if he were to say “It's not an obviious STD”. heh.

  • Tronacate

    I'd pay money to see Blankfein's head explode on TV from a sniper shot just like Rambo IV…….great ppv imo.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Is that a short term inverted H&S on DX?

  • gregn

    AIDS is not a terribly obvious STD to the casual observer.

  • Tronacate

    Kaposi's Sarcoma ……..ah heck…….just like poison ivy

  • tradejane

    I hear you. Son't like gaps on my ultrashorts either, opening or otherwise. Then again I remember SKF leaving a gap in the 110 area once which only closed after a trip to 200 or so…

  • Publius Federali

    Chart on the EUR/USD:

    Long term we are still trading in the channel from the lows last year:
    http://screencast.com/t/NzY2ZWNhO

    Short term it looks like the trend lines from the lower highs over the past two weeks is about to converge with the longer term trend line from the gap last year, which could leave us a little more upside on the EUR, and if that holds perhaps we see the reversal and drop below the lower trend line:

    http://screencast.com/t/OGRjNTQ3MG

  • gregn

    haha ;D

  • gmak

    Buyers coming in at SPX = 1090 If we breach this, there is more support at 1089.31; Things are getting pretty tight for TA indicators. 1089.31 is at a trend line that began on Nov 13 at just before 10 AM after the drop.

  • Publius Federali

    Not the American way. If we can put terrorist on trial in NY then we can certainly put Blankfein on trial for treason. Upon conviction I would have the gallows set up right outside the courtroom. Gota go, gota go. And his time is up.

  • Nightwind

    /dx momentum thinning out

  • gregn

    Feel like I am pointing out the obvious and I think someone else mentioned it earlier (gmak?) but there appears to be a bearish pennant forming http://screencast.com/t/MWNlOGZjNj. Could be a fake out like last pennant yesterday

  • Tronacate

    DOW looks like perfect bear flag on 60min combined with the unspoken term.

  • gregn

    Wrong link on pennant: http://screencast.com/t/MWNlOGZjNj

  • gmak

    I think that SPX is the dog today and EUR the tail. IF SPX does catch a bid, IMHO, EUR will probably breach 1.4920 on the way up.

  • gregn
  • Schwerepunkt

    the pivot today is at 1.4943.

  • gregn

    Unspoken term. Reminds me of the movie The Village. “Those that we do not speak about”

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Semi's really getting whacked today. I have a watch-list of 35 equip and manu's and they are all all down (the least decline 1.7% at moment)

  • Barcode

    The 3 month discount rate has a BIG move down the last 2 days to levels of last Autumn.

    Is there trouble at mill ? Still expecting a small bounce soon before gathering some steam to break 1080 cash.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thinking the same thing…

  • gmak

    Comment also related to your other SPX chart. It looks like from a TD PRessure point of view, on the 30 min SPX< that SPX is entering overbought territory. A move above the signal line and back below, and we could see another leg down – depending on volumes, of course.

  • amokta

    the ewi 'theorist' isnt about the counts of forecast, but talks about the bigger picture issues – saying indices and commodities (other than dji sp, gold) all made lower highs – suggestive of distribution. its possible that the fall (as current of today) might not be the start of p3, but each time the likelihood of a major market turn down has increased, rather than a continuation of up. the soaring optimism since feb/march has resulted in strong reflation – seems convincing, but is temporary, pending start of P3
    The other big thing, is that they feel there are multiple reasons to suspect a deflationary environment – too much info to discuss. most bansk are insolvent, the fdic is broke

  • Tronacate
  • bist

    SPY has a gap to fill at 107.9

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok, nothing new on the EWIern front…

  • ultra

    I think that is code for 'bearish'

  • gregn

    All's Quiet on the EWIern Front*

  • amokta

    no, nothing new, but a lot of detail outlining the deflationary case (then again, i move with the wind – if a read pro-inflation site, then im convinced inflation is coming!)

  • Tronacate

    lol…..good memory

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    humm, but there is no short term support line before 10k…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    😉

    they also had the flu back then

  • molecool

    You 'work'? Wow…

  • molecool

    Same here – they're up 25% today – good start. I don't think it'll be this easy but this reminds you why you've been holding them.

  • molecool

    Does this guy actually understand economics?

  • molecool

    Your post was kick ass this morning – submitting those as comments really doesn't do them justice.

  • Tronacate

    Actually prison would be better…….watch him and Madoff put in “stress” positions by Bubba the shower master.

  • amokta

    how come the orange and blue line on the charts on this blog never point upwards?

  • dollar

    You probably saw this but just in case:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/174335-chip-sto

  • Publius Federali

    No, but he does understand how to use a beard to make yourself look awesome.

  • fuw

    Nice charts.

    Here is another long term view to complement yours:
    http://www.screencast.com/users/fuw/folders/Jin

    We are back under an important long term trend line, that we broke below for the first time in early November. However, short term we seem to be painting a triangle, and the “natural” way for that to break would be up.

  • texpresso

    so i guess that b of A warning is getting traction; if inventories are building, bad news for everyone

  • Publius Federali

    No porn discussions on this site!

  • Tronacate

    Lol……..Shower Skype

  • marcopolo101520

    please provide source.thx.

  • gmak

    There's always more than one pivot, and usually they are the same across charts (i.e. 5 min; 30 min etc) on my terminal anyway. As I posted earlier, the R2 is at 1.5069 and the R1 is at 1.5016; with the neutral at 1.4938.

    WHich pivot are you referring to? Is is another form of TA?

    Thanks.

  • Carl V

    thank you – appreciate you took the time.

  • Nightwind

    Good chart….looks like it could be putting in a triangle. The question is which way does it break?

  • texpresso

    help me out, is this a request, or site etiquette lesson?

  • gmak

    Thank you. Let's see how it goes – if I really have some value to add, or not.

  • centerline

    Thought of the day… fractal still in play. (oh, it rhymes, sorry). Captain Obvious stuff here. Tired of beating my two remaining brain cells together.

    If history repeats itself, each fractal is 1 month long. So far, each has three peaks. Each has an ABC correction. The frequency and amplitude of the peaks is steadily increasing. And the ABC corrections are becoming more muted. Suggesting that we close around here today – right around pivot. Move back up by Monday to 1100 at most (no new high). Then resume slide into into end of month with bounce around 1045 on 12/1 or so. After that, who knows. Three drives seems possible. Four seems improbable. But, who the f*** knows.

  • molecool

    Let's play nice with each other, guys.

  • marcopolo101520

    bublenomics?

  • observingguest

    I recognize that this question is probably too long term oriented for the traders here, but does anyone have a thought on the October island reversal in xlf? It would appear that some indices have already made their highs.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    final fives fail

  • gmak

    Brewer's droop.

    Seriously, it's because of EW and the wave count. i.e. where SPX is at the moement and where EW theory says it can go without violating the rules.

  • gregn

    Michael Buble?

  • texpresso

    that was a sincere question!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I use Woodies pivots. I cited the main pivot (1.4943). R1 (1.5027), R2 out of reach well above 1.505; S1 1.4896 (we just bounced off that at 1318h) and S2 1.4812.

  • marcopolo101520

    request

  • vision_invisible

    For those who like junk in the trunk, PPD down 21% to $32 and falling….

  • gmak

    potato. Potahto. It's all good!

  • molecool

    I'm all about long term, mate. And yes – the financials have been lagging for a while now. The 2.0 BB on the XLF is already dropping.

  • Tronacate

    Time to break out of ye olde bear flag…..

  • gregn
  • texpresso
  • marcopolo101520

    smell wine and cheap parfume…

    thx texpresso!

  • gregn

    What's interesting is that he proclaims to be an expert on the 1930 crash. Hell, I believe him, he knows exactly how to recreate it.

  • tfinavia

    Good find; down 23% now. I will track this.

  • tfinavia

    I think it's more like, long term for mates and short term for trading.

  • vision_invisible

    watch out it is a slippery one, have 30 $40 January calls sold on it. I have no doubt it will be back to $35ish.

  • Tronacate

    A singer in a smoky room The smell of wine and cheap perfume
    For a smile they can share the night It goes on and on and on and on…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdI430gMVtY&feat

  • tradejane

    Does anyone know of an etf or some other real-time way to track t-bills? Thanks.

  • Nightwind

    SHY (etf)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    usualy the big boys stop falls and try to make retracements pass for new up impulses

    today I saw something that I also saw other times, the rare bear to bull “get back down there you bitch”

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-E05B_4B0589C1.html

    seems like some big boys are droping heavy

  • tradejane

    Thanks. Is there one for the 1 and 3 month bills too?

  • dollar

    IRX= 13 week t-bill index

  • Tronacate

    Short TFZ…….1 contract……see what happens……..see if the pennant breaks lower here

  • gregn

    Boom strong down move.

  • Tronacate

    Have 1 contract add on a few ticks below lod

  • Tronacate

    Then another add on below 11/13 low

  • Tronacate

    I'm quiting this bullshit of bailing on shorts when I see a little green……tht's the problem……chicken bears….time to man up…….see green….reinforce

  • CorporalCarrot

    Would really like to see the Dow break below this line;

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=1&yr=0

  • amokta

    ok, as long as you remain 'open' to a bull market option, should ew rules suggest that if price-action changes (yes i know, we would need to go above 07 top!)

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    no, thank god

  • tradejane

    >IRX

    Yup, that's the one. :) Interesting movement today. I think it may be time for Moles famous orange scenario to come out and play.

  • Tronacate

    New Journey DVD “live in Manila”…….kicks ass…..

  • centerline

    +1 for bubblenomics. Someone get this onto wiki.

  • gregn

    It will last for about a day before it's removed. :)

  • ultra

    Think you can organise it by the close tomorrow?

  • Tronacate

    Bernanke's new nick……..”Bubblebreath”

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I feel like the financials are hanging on by their fingernails. Someone needs to kick them in the face.

  • vision_invisible

    au contraire. he just wants the sticker prices on things to remain the same. “no deflation on my watch”

    there is no god given right to $1000 buying a Plasma TV and $1000 Rupees buying a wristwatch. you'll go crazy trying to justify why that reality is, and why it must be.

    he doesnt care about u. dance with the deflation but dont marry the dollar.

  • observingguest

    They're doing “god's work”. :)

  • Tronacate

    Don't say that about my girlfriend

  • Tronacate

    God works in mysterious ways.

  • molecool

    RELOAD for more goodies.

  • gregn

    There is now a surplus of goodies. You are too good to us.

  • marcopolo101520

    God, give me a line…

  • Tronacate

    Me thinks $INDU is going to break down on this 30 min bar…….beautimous bear flag

  • gregn

    Mole and his goodies: http://bit.ly/2YLnsj

  • marcopolo101520

    hope so. that would be a line.

  • marcopolo101520

    complaining about too many goodies. stop.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Cheers mole, it seems to be a pattern that if the direction of the dxy move is sufficient pre-market or overnight, it causes a reactionary move in equities that can't be reversed even if the dxy changes direction.

    Dow seems to be flatlining along my “kid with a ruler” line. Which way will it go?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=1&yr=0

  • marcopolo101520

    would not be so sure. I have see many turn arounds these past 8 freaking months.

  • Tronacate

    Should break in direction of the initial impulse………looks like classic strung out bear flag………but shit…..who knows.

  • Tronacate

    Little headfake would no be unexpected before the break lower

  • marcopolo101520

    saw that so many times, burned so many times, ouch. hope you'right.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Line seems to have held for now. I wonder can this accelerate into the close, or will we get a ramp job.

  • Tronacate

    Me too……

  • gregn

    I would not be surprised at all if we get a bounce, according to my 15min chart, we always bounce back to 200 period MA when we fall through it like we did this morning.

  • Tronacate

    On 5 min…..DJI is painting more of a wedge with the flat on the upper trendline……..could indicate an upside finish…….or a bearish wedge…….be prepared either way.

  • marcopolo101520

    old old news….Finger Fraternity?

    Sun – June 24, 2007
    Dogs Are Now Painting — Or Painting Has Gone to the Dogs

    And why shouldn't Rover try his hand at painting? Surely he can't do any worse than Jackson Pollock and the rest of the Advanced Finger Painting and Paint Flingining Fraternity. But that's exactly what we have, according to talk show host Dennis Prager.

    No pointing fingers please. But I feel that God's boys might want to show us something…or not?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Blog wars?
    Short RIMM here for trade, 58.32

  • marcopolo101520

    you got that! you quick!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/S...

  • gregn

    Already posted in last post, but thank you.

  • marcopolo101520

    reading it now. saw it on ZH early and download it.

  • Tronacate

    Have putz………die rimm you little ho.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • observingguest

    A Merrill Lynch analyst today has downgraded chip stocks because inventory exceeds demand. Wonder when we will get a bank analyst to downgrade bank stocks because there is excess inventory of bs and no demand?

  • texpresso

    link did not work for me

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    New Margin Requirements for all FXCM

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/65

    smells fishy

  • Tronacate

    Just saw Journey live in Henderson Nevada last month……..they were AWESOME…….Neal is playing like a God……Deen is great on drums and has a great voice……..Arnel the new lead singer is a diamond find…….the kid can belt it out all night long.

  • texpresso

    saw them at texas jam in 82 or3, they blew me away

  • Badatlosing

    I have been reading and learning here for a while now and this is my first post. I am very new to this stuff and will try to add something of worth when I post on here. I am looking at the E-Minis right now and have noticed that the current bear flag that is forming since the low this morning is matching up almost PERFECTLY with the action that took place between 6:30 and 9:30 on the ES in pre-market trading. If it follows the same pattern, we could have another swift move lower once this bear flag finishes.

  • texpresso

    i see nothing good in vol, worried about the LEI increase, out of TWM 39.35, take my 3% and be happy

  • Tronacate

    New singer is great…….thought Steve Perry was irreplaceable……not true. And the rest of the band is playing just awesome…….Neal…….love his guitar sound……can play fast and melodic…..really a fine musician…….the drummer has a great voice too and is a top line artist…….grab their live in Manila DVD at Wal-Mart

  • marcopolo101520

    talking about cheap parfume…New Fragrance for you! MY GLOW by Jennifer Lopez…just got it in the email…no kidding! this tracking software they have is good, let's see market down, anyone?

  • dollar

    Santelli talking about record lows on 6 month t-bill yields

  • marcopolo101520

    i'll wait.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    New Margin Requirements

    http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/articl

    This link should work now

  • gregn

    We had a bear pennant just like this back on Oct 15th-16th. Look how it resolved: http://screencast.com/t/YmE2NDRjY

  • Me_XMan

    Looking like going up again.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • CorporalCarrot

    History repeating itself :)

  • gregn

    yeah, looks like it was breaking as i was preparing that..

  • Schwerepunkt

    Interesting. Not sure what the regulators are trying to accomplish by this. Will probably backfire if they're hoping it will lessen speculative volatility. The more participants the better is my view.

  • gregn

    Though, the pennant yesterday broke on the upside yesterday then plummeted into today…. who knows really… it's all statistics there are no laws of nature governing the markets

  • centerline

    1093.54 twice today to the penny.

  • gregn

    Break of 1095 with conviction would seal the deal for a gap fill imo.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I'm hoping that the market makes a new low in this last hour of trading.

  • CorporalCarrot

    A new what? :)

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    refresh…

  • gsavli

    yea, I was thinking 1150 at the EOD and then sharply down tomorrow to 1050. That would be nice.

  • gregn

    Looks like a good time to buy some short term calls for a hedge for the next presumed bounce

  • CorporalCarrot

    Breakout here; up we go into the close it appears.

  • texpresso

    here is the vol, get out of twm

  • marcopolo101520

    listening. out.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    We have a little more downside before we get a bounce….I think we'll go down to 1086 then bounce.

  • Tronacate

    Me thinks that was a little headfake…..still in a 5 min regression channel ……..in fact could have a little bearish Wolfewave setup

  • shortcover

    gun to head…this time they close them at/near the lows…this record has been played too many times.

  • gmak

    I agree with the headfake unless any bar /candle on the 5 min SPX closes above 1094.80 (a Low risk SELL stop point) with the next bar opening above and closing higher.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dip buyers are now calling GS trading desks.

  • Tronacate

    If wolfey plays out…..10,260 or below

  • marcopolo101520

    try this, is great and it works.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VDvgL58h_Y

  • gmak

    I'm not an EW person. Speak to Mole and may other smart people on this blog about that……

    ________________________________

  • gregn

    They don't have Universal EWTcare in Canada? ;D

  • marcopolo101520

    You know that I want you
    And you know that I need you
    I want it bad
    B-B-Bad and bad

    I want your loving
    And I want your revenge
    You and me could write a bad romance
    (Oh-oh-oh-oh-oooh!)
    I want your loving
    All your love is revenge
    You and me could write a bad romance

    My head is spinning, heart is pounding, fingers tapping, DOWN, DOWN btch

  • marcopolo101520

    Not so evil as Metallica but you get the message

  • Me_XMan

    Last hour jamming up again.

  • gregn

    Reminds me of :
    I want you
    All tattooed
    I want you bad

    Complete me
    Mistreat me
    want you to be bad bad bad bad bad

    If you could only read my mind
    You would know that I've been waiting
    So long
    Someone almost just like you
    But with attitude, I'm waiting
    so come on

    Get out of clothestime
    Grow out those highlights
    Come around now can't you see

    I want you
    In a vinyl suit
    I want you bad

    Complicated
    X-rated
    I want you bad, bad, bad, bad, bad
    Bad

  • gregn

    As tronc has stated, this breakout to upside could be a headfake, it is common in triangle that there is a false breakout to the opposite side.

  • Tronacate

    Madoof theme song in the pen:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6GziGGjujs

  • observingguest

    An older and shorter version – whip it, whip it good!

  • observingguest

    Bernie was a fall guy, why do you think there was no trial and no testimony on the record.

  • Tronacate

    Protecting the family and friends assets spread throughout the world……..you're right.

  • Tronacate

    Here comes the fall…..

  • Tronacate

    To all those who went short yesterday……wouldn't it be cool if we all caught the exact trend turn???………lucky……but cool

  • observingguest

    Protecting those above who make Bernie look like a homeless person.

  • Tronacate

    Would love to see RIMM break LOD

  • marcopolo101520

    who do you think you are? God's boy? Wake up, that is booked by GSboyzzzzzz

  • marcopolo101520

    my compliments master gregn!

  • Tronacate

    Lol…..maybe if I dress like Ezekiel…..Blankfein will give me some market prophecy…….or like Isaiah…..didn't he roam the streets naked for awhile?

  • marcopolo101520

    have not seen it, no idea! was it recently?

  • Schwerepunkt

    EOD rump job.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Ramp up to close?

  • marcopolo101520

    everybody is tapping fingers looks like.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I don't think you are going to get any late day drops here. I could be wrong, but this is too calm, too collected, theres no sense of panic, and we have merely had an expected selloff after an incredible 2 week run. At this point, catching a top yesterday will with hindsight be merely viewed as luck. There was nothing that could have predicted it.

  • gregn
  • Schwerepunkt

    If you believe those stories, I've got some toxic debt I'd like to sell you. You'd be doing God a favor.

  • Me_XMan

    They gonna jam it up again tomorrow.
    Of course I'm playing the dip today.

  • Tronacate

    Thinks u be right

  • molecool

    RELOAD – I posted about an expected swing higher just 15 minutes ago.

  • Tronacate

    lol……..no apocalyptic view of the mideast?…….let's hurry up and blow the place up so Jesus comes back sooner?

  • Me_XMan

    The thing is market has no urgency reasons to sell.
    I can't see this market selling off until some big bank file BK or CRE going BK as well.

  • gmak

    I'm not a tactician on the order of Mole and others here. I don't see anthing saying a run up on my indicators. I do have a possibility of EUR getting to 1.4933 (price exhaustion – qualified), so only if it is pulling DXY AND SPY do I see it happening.

    Again, I'm not a tactician. Still forewarned is forearmed and it wouldn't hurt to hedge short exposure given how the market has behaved into the close for the last 7 months.

    Oops – just noticed on the 5 min SPX that 1095.23 is the price exhaustion target there – and it is qualifed (meaning probable, if not 100% certain).

  • Me_XMan

    WHat it's doing is pullback, consolidate, and then rock higher.

  • marcopolo101520

    my target is 1095.55. more or less the same.

  • gmak

    This market is “schizo”. I keep getting a price exhaustion target DOWN, flashing on and off. So it is not a foregone conclusion that there will be a ramp. A slo-mo low volume battle is taking place. LoL.

  • gregn

    The market recently pulled back to 666 from 1500 to consolidate.

  • gmak

    That's on the EUR – by the way.

  • Me_XMan

    Don't tell me Dow going 32K.

  • gregn

    GS' HALs playing hot potato with 7 shares of SPY.

  • rocky5iitr

    this market is not going up any more , dow is headed below 9500 as per symmetrical wolfe wave.

  • gmak

    My market picture shows that volume says SPX is actually above where it wants to be (marble rolling to the point of least resistance), whcih is at 1092 – 1092.50; Note that this DOESN'T mean that that is where it will end up, just that the TA says it should in a perfect world.

  • molecool

    RELOAD!

  • Tronacate

    Ahhhhh…..another Wolfewaver

  • Tronacate

    Ahhhhh…..another Wolfewaver

  • texpresso

    worst expected holiday spending ever projected (well, since 86)

  • Tronacate

    What time frame you looking at?

  • rocky5iitr

    markets are capable of doing anything , but the symmetry is so , hv a look at daily chart

  • gmak

    FED bought $16 bb net of agency MBS in the week ended Wed – according to a little email they just sent.

  • gregn

    We have been looking at today as a bear pennant which recently broke out on the upside. Another alternative is that we have a bear flag: http://screencast.com/t/MzljMzQ3ZG

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro futures? Hmm. What are those? It's not EME is it?

  • onorio

    EURUSD broke up from the triangle, we should be above 1.5100 soon. SPX should follow in Mole`s blue cenario.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I don't think thats totally correct. I think next quarters bank earnings could be a catalyst if something doesn't happen before then.

    Perhaps it will

  • marcopolo101520

    climate change anyone?

  • Schwerepunkt

    still needs to get over 1.4924 and the pivot at 1.4943. Don't get too excited.

  • gmak

    front end of the tbill curve has gone negative again. This is the equivalent of running for the hills in the short term.

    See here:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/post-lehman-de

  • Nightwind

    Don't get me started….LOL

  • kanur

    Not quite my shady friend. My friend Bubba ain't finished buying dollars.

  • marcopolo101520

    I am lubricated!

  • weasel_whisperer

    They are setting up expectations for terrible sales, so they can still beat when their sales are lousy (as opposed to terrible).

  • gmak

    Yet EUR is being stopped by the 62% FIB at 1.4918 – its the same old 1.492 barrier that has been there all day. IT was support early on the 18th, and now seems to be resistance.

  • CorporalCarrot
  • gregn

    Climate Change, otherwise known as seasons.

  • texpresso

    funny, yet probably true, based upon all the phony baloney guidance

  • mtvernon

    Mole, I hear ya on Euro but I think at this juncture of dollar destruction and excess liquidity the seemingly sole beneficiary is the yellow metal, we may not have much to fear from the usd/es correlation looking ahead. i hope.

  • onorio

    last top was @ 1.5040, after that i see a triangle finished today at 1.4840 we should bounce here for the next days…IMO

    1.4940 is a strong resistance, once broke i see 1.5040 the last high and after that 1.51 probably

  • Nightwind

    20 years ago, we were starting a new ice age. I miss that one too.

  • marcopolo101520

    you know what, I for one not buying any gifts this year, except for my son. Spent a shit load on plane tickets(hsmsjsabgvdksaahhhhhhhhh) so they might be even worse.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Mole will kill me but, the euro looks like and ending diagonal for 5 of C

    as per EWT it's down we go

    as per GS wave theory 5s get ooverexcited and turn to impulses

  • CorporalCarrot

    Plays out exactly as it says in the manuals :)

  • gmak

    I'll post my daily on the EUR tomorrow. I see a lower high was put in and strong resistance at 1.5080 – being where sellers should come in and the upper Bollinger. Right now it looks like we're bouncing off of the mid-bollinger each day.

    Cheers.

  • marcopolo101520

    whoaw, what a jump 1095 to 1095.75, my line in the sand….blown by the wind of climate change. Mole was right. I am going left guys, later maters!

  • Tronacate

    Still think this throwover is a headfake…..we'll see

  • marcopolo101520

    Back, 1095.24 headfake troncate?

  • marcopolo101520

    are we twins?

  • gregn

    I am betting on a headreal.

  • gmak

    Looks like Mole triumphs yet again. Well done!!

    Blew past the low risk SELL stop and got to the price exhaustion at SPX = 195.24

    Good one, Mole! <Thumbsup>

    Tell us about those EUR futures again….. heh.

  • LogansRun

    Buy on the dip suckers!

  • onorio

    I will try to update tomorrow to gmak :)

    Always cool to see your points of view, tks

  • Me_XMan

    LOL!

  • bshah

    There is no “BUY ON DIP”.. This is fucking bs… It's all manipulated… Tell me now, that since it is OPEX and blah blah… we will see ramp up into close … Why the hell it has to be RAMP UP ..That's not in consitution… It's all made up.. We have been so fucked up in our mind millions of times, that everytime, we only get this stupid reason out..

  • Me_XMan

    Making some money today :)

  • molecool

    No, that wasn't what I was looking at 😉

    I got more aces up my sleeve.

  • Tronacate

    BAC might put in a LOD…….die you pos

  • gmak

    ate amanha, gente.

  • Me_XMan

    Yeah there are dipsters and sideline money coming in.
    DId you hear about this?

  • molecool

    It's like Groundhog Day – LOL :-)

  • Tronacate

    You might be right……

  • molecool

    It's institutional bshah – very clearly. I see those patterns on my charts – very clear.

  • bshah

    sure i did.. who's telling those idiots, that oh.. Green signal.. Now jump in because GS is starting their engines..

  • Tronacate

    IYR is a non-participant here

  • rocky5iitr

    tis'not going anywhere , it'll strike harder tommorow.rome was not built in a day

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Back to mkt neutral here into the close/
    Big on the action in Chinese names today – not in love w mkt overall tho

  • Tronacate

    Wolfewave throwover…..should drop like a stone here

  • bshah

    mole, i am not that sophesticated nor highly educated in trading, but watching this for a long time to tell, that i get screwed up.. lost almost 30k thus far and don't know how to get to trade so that i don't get into crushed.. tough luck eih…

  • rocky5iitr

    hold your horses , this bullshit index going below 9500

  • clutchshorter

    I'll be happy if SPY closes under $110 today.

  • Tronacate

    Yeah baby…..let the bloodletting begin

  • molecool

    RELOAD!

  • texpresso

    spinning tops all over the computer screens

  • Tronacate

    Here's the bearflag break (tron crosses toes)

  • molecool

    Please provide a chart. I am going to dig myself.

  • onorio

    ate amanha gmak

  • mtvernon

    ZH pointing out jan tbills went negative yield today, we all know what that means…

  • gregn

    bear flag still golden. i would surprised if we gapped up in the exact same place that we gapped down. http://screencast.com/t/ZmUzM2YwNm

  • Tronacate

    It's a beauty on the 60 min

  • gregn

    That it is, sir.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tb és portugues?|

  • mtvernon

    DELL shits the bed

  • ultra

    My take, basically the same – http://screencast.com/t/MmJiNjJmYjM

  • texpresso

    DELL missed, 0.23 v 0.27

  • rocky5iitr
  • Publius Federali

    How the hell do you miss a number that has been ratcheted down a dozen times and you gave to the street just days ago? If you can't beat by 1-3 pennies then you need to fire your CFO and get a better crook.

  • texpresso

    unless DELL guides up, what do you think, SPX breaks 13 day tomorrow and plummets?

  • Gerbil_gold

    <ahem> Computer algorithms like symmetry, market men like curves. 😉

  • molecool

    SWEET! :-)

  • gregn

    I didn't think to look at fibs, thanks ;D

  • Tronacate

    Very nice Wolfe wave there sir……..I missed that on the daily……..should play out nicely through the end of the year

  • gregn

    Damn, I wish I knew there were earnings coming out.

  • bshah

    Do you wonder the timings…? Entire CHIP sector downgraded and now DELL missing? Similar things have happened before for Banks…/AAPL… Oh and we know the great hedge fund saga few weeks ago…

  • Tronacate

    Gotta love Dell missing……..it's like you expect a D- from your kid and he pulls an F instead…. fucking hilarious

  • gregn

    However, I think we retest 200 period ma as per my chart.

  • gregn

    An F+

  • Gerbil_gold

    Breaking News: “Green Shoot turns Brown”

  • molecool

    GUYS!!! Don't hate me for saying this but….

    T
    H
    E

    N
    E
    W
    S

    D
    O

    N
    O
    T

    M
    A
    T
    T
    E
    R
    !
    !

  • Tronacate

    True……..but it's still funny.

  • gregn

    Did you know that News is an acronym for north, east, west, south?

  • ultra

    Could well be. Not much in it either way. The main question is whether we get a genuine 5 wave fall (bearish) or if we get it mutate into an abc as has happened every time so far…

  • texpresso

    true, news does not matter– but the market is cycling down. look at the six month, we peaked a couple days ago. no guarantees, but likely, SP back down to 1120-1130, then up again

  • bshah

    Now i hate you… :)

  • ultra

    whoah – not seen this chart before – $IRX, courtesy of TK – http://slopeofhope.com/2009/11/irx-what-does-it

    talk about no demand for debt…

  • Tronacate

    What's the game where you bend under the pole?…….DELL must be a contortionist

  • Tronacate

    Think Palin gives good head??…….Her and Bill should run together.

  • gregn
  • Scoops

    I was just going to mention that.

  • Publius Federali

    Perfect proof of this, in July when Merredith Whitney came out and said she liked GS it started a buying spree. When she came out this week and said everything is overvalued the market did not budge.

    Same person, different opinions, one ignored, one supposedly led to a rise.

    News is for human beings. We need to be comforted with a reason for everything. Thus we are told news moves the market. It works the other way around. The market moves and then the talking heads find news to support that move.

  • molecool

    Exactly – can go either way.

  • molecool

    Eeeeeeeee-xactly…

  • Tronacate

    EXACTLY…..what's it called???

  • texpresso

    somebody notes there: look what happened to the market when IRX dived, but my question would be, which is the dog and which is the tail?

  • gregn

    limbo

  • ultra

    ruh roh…

    and this is before anything has actually even kicked off! we, dropped how much today… 15 SPX pts?

  • Tronacate

    THANK YOU…….gawd I couldn't remember the name…….damn brain

  • gregn

    Thanks for that update about A/D, just saw it now.

  • Scoops

    Something just feels different today. Not saying that we're going to crash,
    but it's just something.

    That is all.

  • Tronacate

    Anybody know the IRX symbol in tradestation?

  • Tronacate

    Maybe $IRX.X

  • ultra

    Well, you're not the only one, if the t-bill rates are anything to go by…

  • Tronacate

    The market feels different……but what really feels different is the number of people that come in the office and can not afford their dental needs……..One lady…..flush a couple years ago just said she's tapped out on her credit cards. People are broke…….how can there be debt demand?

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    The dump this morning, IMHO was to minimize people buying any more puts heading into OpEx.

    For MMs, more puts means market has to go higher…that could prove expensive…

  • onorio

    Here`s my EURUSD update :

    http://www.screencast.com/t/M2MwNWYyY2

    This sugests more upside for equities, so Mole blue cenario should be on the table. My target for this C wave is arround 1.5233 where C=A.

  • gregn

    1.4 p/c for spx… too high still?

  • Tronacate

    Interesting U6 vs. depression numbers:

    http://bearmarketcomparison.com/Bear-Market-Com

  • Niktus

    So something like 1.4970?

  • Tronacate
  • gregn

    Scary.

  • Tronacate

    That's what I thought…….the positive spin can only last so long……

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Imagine if it was not a gap down should be higher by OpEx..

  • ultra

    Obviously, anything can happen, but I have a hard time seeing new highs right now

    http://screencast.com/t/NjU1MjE4

  • gregn

    It will last as long as it is needed then there will be a 180 and the negative 'spin' will last as long as that's needed. Hope and fear.

  • Tronacate

    Until this……

    “All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed… and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.”
    – President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

  • gregn

    Did you get a concise charting lesson from PRS?

  • Tronacate

    Then we will give up all our freedoms for “financial and social
    stability”

  • gregn

    Exactly. What did Ben Franklin say? “A man that is willing to give up a little freedom for a little security will get neither.”

  • ultra

    LOL – that one is a bit busy, aye – but I can't hold a candle to the master…

  • amokta

    what happened dow was down 160, but only 90 down at close?
    -bear market over?

  • Marc45

    Careful bears, there was buying on strength in SPY most of the day. Someone is expecting that we're not going down just yet.

  • Tronacate

    If you look at the $INDU 60min chart…….impulse down then what's called a bear flag upward……

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock

    I forgot to short AXP at $42

  • Tronacate

    That's the American knee-jerk reaction to any feeling of unease.

  • Tronacate

    Russell is pulling back AH

  • cramar

    Just was struck by the “big picture” on Mole's $SPX chart (2nd from top). Just stand back and ask the questions is this a healthy market and is this sustainable?

    I find it hard to believe that this chart can sustain a major end-of-year advance. The path of least resistance is downhill in support of the economic fundamentals.

  • gregn

    Is that your Elise?

  • PRSGuitars

    (I'm beaming silent hate at you right now)

    hahaha, yes, im doing what i can to clean things up.

  • WTFed

    Prechter predicts a repeat. Gold in your safety deposit box, if it is even legal to possess, is out of reach.

  • WTFed

    You betcha!

  • PRSGuitars

    This one's for you — my actual EUR/USD chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/MzE4YTE3NjIt

    Granted, I usually zoom in and/or hide drawings as necessary. But this gives you an idea the insanity I deal with most of the day…

  • gregn

    That is craziness, but like I said a couple weeks ago… if it works for you — GREAT! 😉 By the way, do you use stochastics? I found a pretty cool method to use stoch the complete opposite than how most use them. I'll post a chart in a second.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “It's institutional bshah – very clearly. I see those patterns on my charts – very clear.”

    the ending diagonal of 5 of C followed by a vertical lift-off?

  • PRSGuitars

    Sounds great — yes, used a 10 period slowstochastic for a while but found
    myself needing more of a strength gauge (now using 14 period RSIWilder) more
    than a statistical reversion tool like the stoch. Using both is nice
    because when the odds are in your favor + divergent strength showing, you
    know you're 80% in the clear for a small swing, at least (as a scalper as
    far as my 'trading' vs. 'positioning'; this small swing is all I need).

    Mostly 1 and 5min charts with a variety of MAs. On the 1min I use a 20, 50,
    100, 240, and VWAP + std. deviation bands (the 5min's 20/50 = 100/240 on the
    1min). Will use 15's or hourly for scanning and, naturally, the larger
    timeframe VWAPs (weekly/monthly). Also regular pivots (TOS' pivots, not
    Persons').

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    early in the morning, yours truly

    “fade the news

    if this breaks people will rationalize it anyway

    maybe the market felt it was being cheated because of ireland's match against france, people got suspicious….

    or maybe it's pre Xmas spirit”

  • gregn

    TOS' pivots are better? I watched the demo of Persons' pivots with the PPS and it looked pretty good, though I have never used it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I think nobody had any difficulty imagining Palin giving one slopy BJ
    … and most wouldn't mind

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster
  • gregn

    Anyway, overbought = 70, oversold = 30 k period = 24, d = 3. Buy when both cross overbought, sell when cross back under overbought.

    Example from US Steel. There are a lot of small losses and some break evens, but the winners take care of that. I don't use this as I am trying trying to integrate momentum in the signal. Anyway, here is the example:

    http://screencast.com/t/MzQ4MjM1OTA

    I think it is an interesting method as seems counter intuitive.

  • gregn

    Looks like the classic rooftop.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    FYI: A Trader's Guide to Sipping Kool Aid
    …should post in about an hour.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, it's the classic C up ended, time for GS boost if we don't want people to find out

  • Bonanza36

    I see at least a few more down days here based on RSI and channel support lines

    http://screencast.com/t/MjMxYjA0YmQ

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Just don't you dare to call in ErikD – it will fail then!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    posted quick video on cubes/C/sell setups (thought u might be interested)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    prozak?

  • http://epiccallonfate.blogspot.com/ Dr Livesey

    OPEX day tomorrow – I put together an analysis of EW and OI – looks like the trend and range is very obvious for tomorrow.
    Here is the story:http://epiccallonfate.blogspot.com/2009/11/whos-trap-is-that-this-is-bullz-trap.html

  • clutchshorter

    Asian markets selling off tonight. Let's see if it holds up into the morning. I think we will see a down day on the SPX. Next week, we may be bullish on light volume. I'm looking at 1085 as support and 1120 has resistance.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • momac

    I'm so sorry bshah, I know what it feels like. I wish you good luck in making everything back and then some !!!!!!! :-)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    back^at trading to win?

    got a link?

  • gmak

    Nao. So fallo un pouco.

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just asking, plenty of portuguese around

    BTW we seldom use double letters (só faLo um pouco)

  • gmak

    Thanks for the corection

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just asking, plenty of portuguese around

    BTW we seldom use double letters (só faLo um pouco)

  • gmak

    Thanks for the corection

    ________________________________