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Return Of The Market Mole
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Return Of The Market Mole

by The MoleMarch 17, 2014

Late last night I returned to Valencia after having enjoyed the tranquility and beauty of Sevilla. If you ever have the chance I strongly recommend a visit as it’s one of the most stunning and welcoming places I have ever had the fortune to experience. And don’t get me started on the food – it will take me weeks of hardcore weight and endurance training to shed the pounds I have accumulated over a mere four days.

But now it’s back to work and frankly speaking I have been very much looking forward to it. No matter what you do with your life, here’s a good test. If you go on vacation and dread returning to your job on Monday morning then stop right now and find something else to do with yourself. Not to sound trite but our days on this soil are numbered – do your best to embrace every single day as if it were your last (like Robert Prechter you will be right exactly once).

When I was meandering the streets of Sevilla I couldn’t help but wonder if many of the low paid staff working at the restaurants enjoyed a better quality of life than the ‘professionals’ climbing their way to the top of the food chain in inhuman urban sprawls like New York, Los Angeles, London, Hong Kong, etc. Most of the folks in sleepy Sevilla seemed rather happy and content with their comparably meager existence. And how could you not be, surrounded by so much beauty, good weather, good food, well dressed and relaxed people. What came to mind was the story of the fisherman and the businessman – in case you haven’t:

There  was once a businessman who was sitting by the beach in a small  Brazilian village. As he sat, he saw a Brazilian fisherman rowing a  small boat towards the shore having caught quite a few big fish. The  businessman was impressed and asked the fisherman, “How long does it  take you to catch so many fish?” The fisherman replied, “Oh, just a  short while.”
“Then why don’t you stay longer at sea and catch even more?” The businessman was astonished. “This is enough to feed my whole family,” the fisherman said.

The businessman then asked, “So, what do you do for the rest of the day?” The  fisherman replied, “Well, I usually wake up early in the morning, go  out to sea and catch a few fish, then go back and play with my kids. In  the afternoon, I take a nap with my wife, and evening comes, I join my  buddies in the village for a drink — we play guitar, sing and dance  throughout the night.”

The businessman offered a  suggestion to the fisherman. “I am a PhD in business management. I could  help you to become a more successful person. From now on, you should  spend more time at sea and try to catch as many fish as possible. When  you have saved enough money, you could buy a bigger boat and catch even  more fish. Soon you will be able to afford to buy more boats, set up  your own company, your own production plant for canned food and distribution network. By then, you will have moved out of this village  and to Sao Paulo, where you can set up HQ to manage your other  branches.”

The fisherman continues, “And after that?” The  businessman laughs heartily, “After that, you can live like a king in  your own house, and when the time is right, you can go public and float  your shares in the Stock Exchange, and you will be rich.” The fisherman asks, “And after that?” The  businessman says, “After that, you can finally retire, you can move to a  house by the fishing village, wake up early in the morning, catch a few  fish, then return home to play with kids, have a nice afternoon nap  with your wife, and when evening comes, you can join your buddies for a  drink, play the guitar, sing and dance throughout the night!” The fisherman was puzzled, “Isn’t that what I am doing now?

Before we get to our charts I would like to thank Scott ‘The Convict’ Phillips for committing a complete brain dump all last week. He claims that it was literally all he knows but he’s too humble and I can assure you that you have only seen the tip of the iceberg. There’s a lot more below but like fighting or fishing it unfortunately cannot be taught via literal instruction – it has to be practiced and experienced. And that is what we do here every day. As Scott already mentioned – all of what has been shared in the past week will be covered here repeatedly moving forward. It’s one thing to read and understand something but I consider it my job to continue drilling it into your retail rodent brains.

The Mole’s vacation curse still seems to be live and well – for the past few years the going joke here has been that every time I take a few days off the market starts tanking. So I just popped up my charts in expectation of being able to suggest some impending support levels but quite frankly we have very little context here. And that is okay – one of the hardest lessons to learn even as a seasoned trader is to know when NOT to trade.  No matter what ‘lens’ you use right now – there’s not much to hang your hat on, no matter how hard you look. So don’t waste your time – instead wait for better weather.

The ES futures rolled over on Monday but we are decidedly back in a high volume zone. And that means we may bounce around here for a while until the tape decides where to go next. Don’t make the mistake of trading your book or your opinion right here, market makers love configurations like this and they will send you to the woodshed three ways until Sunday.

On the weekly panel we just completed a rather long inside week candle. Given what I’ve shown above I think we may be looking at some tough tape ahead, at least until we breach below 1824 or push above the recent highs. So this week may pave the way to what lays ahead this spring – the inside week candle will produce either a buy or sell signal on a breach of its high or its low. If you’re a skilled short term swing trader then you may have a lot of fun in the coming days. Especially if follow our Zero indicator – it offers great signals in sideways tape.

There is however fun to be had – join me in the lair for some juicy short term setups:

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • captainboom

    Zero behavior seems odd this morning. Is it working right?

  • Dyellowflash

    Is the ZL down? A total flat line on suspension? Thanks for the heads-up, I am also currently long Gold.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, that’s very strange. It seems the new update has affected it. I will have to look into that.

  • momac

    thanks mole, good to see you back

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Welcome back mole, great stuff right out of the gate.
    /SB looking for a possible long at the daily/weekly support here.
    FYI TOS tick charts are not working correctly
    “Market internals are down, our data teams are working on a fix”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Something has changed on their end – give me a bit time to figure it out. Fucking TOS – every update is a nightmare with them…

  • Dyellowflash

    Hey mole, I am wondering if you can create a zero-like programe subscription for gold also? Perhaps using the futures for 5m and the GLD for hourly?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not worth it – there would be only a handful of subs.

  • stovis

    Mole – I see that the last candle on your chart for the /GC trade is the 7:00 – 8:00 AM CDT candle. I didn’t get the new post email alert until 9:15 AM CDT. Should I have gotten it sooner than that? Thanks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Took me too much time to write my post – sorry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yeah, seems TOS broke one of their script functions. wankers..

  • mugabe

    Mole, Cadiz city and the coastline round there are something else if you want a June break. And the village of Vejer is very beautiful, not to mention Ronda where Orson Welles is buried. Btw, excellent posts from Scott- lots of room for thought.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, they are telling me Cadiz is a must see and I’ll definitely check that out. Although it’s gonna be hot in June – perhaps best to head North to Asturias, Cantabria, or Galicia.

  • mugabe

    June is normally OK in Cadiz- Atlantic coast and not humid. The north is more for July and August… with the constant possibiity of rain. All of the north without exception is green, with superb scenery and food- probably the best in Spain, imho.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this forum may never be the same.
    tough tape indeed.

    http://s23.postimg.org/puogmbgfv/MAR17.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think I made it pretty clear this morning that pending tape would be tough to negotiate. Seems you are falling in your own ego trap in attempting to make sense out of these gyrations. You are better off to let go and simply watch and wait for easier tape.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s good to know – not being humid is particularly important to me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, what you mean by this forum may never be the same? It’s been a bit quiet lately as some of the prolific ones have taken a step back (you included). I personally would like to see more discussion on all the good stuff Scott has been sharing over the past week. If you guys have learned nothing from that then I would be worried. Perhaps then it would be time to just turn the place into a front end for the strategies.

  • mugabe

    I think that’s Scott’s posts take a fair amount of working through and reflection and, depending on what your issues are, you’ll focus on some things rather than others.Also, a lot of this process has to be done in the quiet of your own room, rather rhan blaring out sound bites on a forum. Having said that… what struck me personally most was:
    1 Strategies are tied to market conditions. Nothing works all the time. How true is this of mime? And do I really care, as I’m not looking for superformance? CAGR of 20% with shallow drawdowns is good enough for me. Scott is obviously looking for something much higher.

    2 The whole question of stops, specifically that they are usually too wide once a trade really gets moving. The idea of multiple stops in a race with each other is interesting, too.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I can’t speak for anyone but myself, I’ve learned plenty. more perhaps than spending years on other sites. What I meant by never be the same is, quite likely a shift from personal chart analysis to straight out strategy scenarios.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wrwclIz2/

    try the cleanest looking charts….

  • mugabe

    Yes- that head on the right adds no value whatsoever

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Entries are still worth discussing. After all we are not coin flipping to get into trades, right? But instead what’s more valuable would be discussing various system ideas and exploring them. The best ones I would code and put into circulation. It’s one thing to tell us gold is good at the SMA – it’s another having discovered a continuos edge that leads to profits in the near and far future. Get my point?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just wrote you this long ass comment and then reloaded the page. Damn it!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes..and that what I’m eager to follow into. ie: two systems both return 2R results, but one is X better than Y in a trending market.

  • bdoone

    VIX step 2 accomplished

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

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  • Gopher_on_a_stick!

    Hey is the trend day indicator part of your subscription? if so which one? thanks