Revenge of the Silver Spoons

UPDATE 9:46am EST: Silver is on fire this morning and there are no stains in sight:

I have mixed feelings about this H&S though – not sure why. It sure looks precious – maybe I should just shut up and take it. But let’s wait out that triangle breach in equities first – that attempt to breach the resistance line ended on a whimper. No surprise as the Zero signal was fairly flat. The bulls will have to muster up a few more legions to ram through this barricade. Could just be a an E wave throw-over… happens sometime.

Happy Chinese New Year to you Asian rats!

UPDATE 10:35am EST: Check this out:

The CPC has no business being here unless we just rallied by 500 points in the DOW or something along those lines.

UPDATE 11:00am EST: Yen just fell off the plate… again… definitely a big seller here – maybe the Japanese are putting a lid on their currency?

Let’s remember – our intrepid Asian friends do not enjoy a strong currency – Yen or Yuan (Renminbi). Strong currency is bad for their exports. Anyway, this is lining up to be a painful week – we got that FOMC meeting looming and until then we’ll see a lot of fake outs and thin tape monkey business.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 26th, 2009 at 9:51 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I saw no one commented on my inverse h/s pattern in GLS last night. Looks like it is up nicely.Next stop 100?

    http://screencast.com/t/gmKLmo5bH4

  • tfyisrich

    Mole,

    The silver charts is currently in a bearish wedge with resistance right at 12.50's i see this the top for the market along with commodities time to cut out your hedge as I think the commodities will run into stiff resistance today and lead the market lower in the coming weeks.

  • standard_and_poor

    Nicey nice this time,aye.

  • alphahorn

    i commented last night about commodities flying with the topped $, and it's playing out across the board, i would love a week of days like today

  • tfyisrich

    oh yeah Happy new years to you to.

  • El Gato

    BAC of continues its march higher. This is the piece of the puzzle that the bulls have been dearly missing in their thesis. Financials strengthening could certainly embolden the bulls. The buyers are higher and path of maximum frustration remains to the upside.

  • El Gato

    Gold and oil are now moving in tandem indicating that the consumer may have one last reach for the credit pool. This is bullish

  • molecool

    X?nnián kuàilè = ????

    Damn – Chinese characters don't stick in the WP post.

  • tfyisrich

    look at the $cpc we are going to go down fast after today.

  • LearningWizard

    Ironically, it's the year of the Ox …

  • Vardoger

    UNG is taunting me… I hate you

  • Keirsten

    Chinese Proverb:
    Be not afraid of growing slowly, be afraid only of standing still.

  • molecool

    Emotions = bad = doing foolish things = losses.

  • alphahorn

    mole, you said you didn't trust the move, but why not just play bgu with a stop?

  • molecool

    1+ for keeping an eye on this one. I posted the chart above.

  • molecool

    I”m not sure what you're saying. The instrument has no bearing on my overall outlook on the market.

  • molecool

    Nope – they don't – the latest candle gets adjusted on each tick while it's active. Would you rather have a candle move 15 points first before you enter it? There's no perfect way of handling it.

    It would be like TOS painting an hour candle once it's done – you wouldn't like that either ;-)

    BTW, are you reading the comments I'm adding to the chart?

  • cnbs08

    That felt like the “fakeout breakout” we needed to see before they reverse things hard the other way…….

  • Vardoger

    Dead on, natgas is like my crazy ex girlfriend.. I just look the other way now and run

  • JWBlack

    Yes, I am reading your comments in the chart.

    My experience with your wonderful Z is to just follow the signals and ignore personal opinions.

  • Vardoger

    Emotions = bad = doing foolish things = losses.

    –courtesy of Mole

  • molecool

    Possibility, yes. There is no momentum either way though – so, let's not jump to conclusions until we see some meat either way. I would be equally hesitant to take a short ETA here if it's weak.

  • El Gato

    Beta complex is strong and breadth is stellar. Three ducks lined up; Banks/brokers/ semis.

  • El Gato

    Good point Moley. I am looking at BIDU that has lagged badly and is now quite strong. Has yet to spill over

  • cnbs08

    I'm thinking good old ben bertanke will give us just what we need to get the snowball rolling down the hill on wednesday……….have faith in ben, has he ever let us down before………

    So maybe we get some more whipsaw bs over the next day or two…..while the bulltard vacuum comes on in full force to suck in as much money as possible from unsuspecting bulls…….and then maybe one last final fakeout before the plunge after the fed decision…….jmho as always….

  • molecool

    You are right – breadth on SPX is 1:10 positive. CPC however is completely crazy (see above) and all this doesn't make sense. I prefer to trade when I see a cohesive picture.

  • cnbs08

    That's right…….lure in those bulltards……..Time to buy stocks again bc we have bottomed…….puahahaha!

  • C.C. Rider

    Mole,
    Doesn't the breach of SPX 836 discard your orange path?

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

    I think we're now enroute on the blue path to 930ish.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/texana44/folder

  • El Gato

    Keeping an open mind here. Gladly take either side of the trade

  • alphahorn

    the dxo was consolidating around its 50% retracement level of $2.92-3 it's starting to climb off that level now and if it breaks $3.05 it might lead the party

  • JWBlack

    I went long once the long ETA stuck on Friday. I am waiting for one of two things to get bearish/cautious — a sell signal from the Z or an extreme move that hits a very high RL such as 875. If the sell signal precedes an extreme RL, I go with the Z..

  • DrMalaka

    Does anything make sense anymore?

  • SRSFinance

    Thanks for the CPC chart Mole. Indeed it is sobering. I'm still net short and this gives a little more confidence to stay that way.

    It appears that the market wants to rise into the probable rescue announcement. Perhaps it will and that will be a sell the news event. Dunno.

  • alphahorn

    the question is when, not sure it will come today, at least not before the last 30 mins of trading

  • malusDiaz

    Wouldn't the CPC just mean that a lot of people want “insurance” on their buy in's? Because EVERY one and there mom is bearish? As all the bulls have 'died and rolled over', and this rally makes no sense?

    Sounds like a Wave 1 to me.

  • molecool

    NOV is doing very well today…

  • Keirsten

    GS clipped resistance at 78.65 by a dime and now letting off some pressure.

  • LeTrader

    PNRA looks good as a short here. Any takers?

  • alphahorn

    looks low the djia is forming a bull pennant as it builds to break through its 50% restracement of 8235

  • http://trading-to-win.com DavidDT

    SLV (as well as GLD at92.50) will present short opp by the end of this week

  • El Gato

    AMZN also coming in on the lagging dog scan. Tempted to start a tracking short here

  • molecool

    You are assuming that the majority of traders use options for hedging? I wouldn't be sure of that but have no statistics to prove otherwise.

  • molecool

    The big picture does – the intra-day spasms do not.

  • minion of the ppt

    I suspect sinkscript is not good enough for it… it might be worthwhile to check which of the factors going into the zero cause most of the trouble aka as false signals. There should be patterns, kind of a decision tree approach might be helpful. Too long a sequence of rules without structure will not work.

  • El Gato

    “”Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehood and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited” Soros

    Is the education trade playing out here in Ponzi scheme fashion? The momentum crowd is clearing out. ESI / APOL / DV

  • OldChicago

    Yen, Yuan – Geithner has started mumbling about Obama's believe that Chinese Gov manipulating Yuan and warning Japanese Gov. on interfering currency market. So, he probably saw this coming.

    by the way, this is the year of BULL! for the Asians.

  • malusDiaz

    Make shit up mostly; I'm good at that =D

    Just seems like a plausibility and this : http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3324/3224260575_

    While it may seem that conditions may not have changed; there may be major changes in people Perception of Conditions.

    And as the Fed's have guaranteed any & all banks to 'Be Solvent', Only short of the U.S. Declaring bankruptcy, then i would bet down.

    I'm thinking mostly sideways, with a mild trend upwards. That's all it takes to break the most trend lines, which seems like the most pain to everyone.

  • DrMalaka

    Great start to this presidency, start fighting with a country that holds a trillion dollars of our debt and we need them to buy more of it. Is this how we get into a trade war and then a real war? Geithner is a fool, as is his boss. Blaming China for our problems is moronic. And we are not manipulating our currency? What would you call zero percent fed funds rate? We hold no cards against the Chinese, fighting with them can lead to nothing but horrible things.

  • Yux

    Castrated rally in Asia?

  • malusDiaz

    We accuse them first… That way it doesn't look like we started it when we manipulate.

  • rhae

    working on another stupid inside day, guess we just have to see which way it breaks

  • standard_and_poor

    Clueless about spx, but still clutching my puts. Hope you are as well (clutching).

  • YOGI

    Maybe this explains the PC ratio

    A large option trade after the market opened in the SPDR S&P 500 SPY.P
    exchange-traded fund suggests a bullish short-term view on the broad market,
    said Trade Alert president Henry Schwartz. The transaction involved a bullish
    put spread collar in the ETF, often called the Spiders. It traded on the
    International Securities Exchange 50,000 times in which a customer bought Feb
    $88 calls while selling the Feb $70/$76 put spread for a net debit of 86 cents,
    he said. SPY options normally trade over 1 million contracts daily but trades
    this large are rare and suggest a bullish short-term view on the broad market.
    Notional value is $422 million, Schwartz said. SPY shares rose to 2.21 percent
    to $84.94. Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net
    0958 ET 26Jan2009-Citi: volatility will decrease in 2009

  • HungryNewt

    yep. politics as usual

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Wow.. just looked at the Feb chain for SPY, those are some ridiculous volumes. Thanks for the heads up.

  • DrMalaka

    Japanese keep talking about intervention to weaken the Yen. They don't like to act alone but can not work in conjunction with us as we have no one leading treasury yet. Intervention can work for weakening your currency, it does not work for strengthening it. They can print money until the cows come home and weaken the currency tremendously. This is all getting really tricky.

  • BovineStew

    Feb spy max pain is at 88

  • El Gato

    Last size of 1.49 K of the Feb 40 puts for ENR….open interest is standing at 7.8K

  • rhae

    I see fake outs often in low volume donut hour… easier to pick off stops

  • alphahorn

    i'm a big fan of scenario blue

  • SRSFinance

    Nice find. It has earnings in a couple of days though. That throws it out for me.

  • SRSFinance

    Not good for the rally monkeys when the bull side leader gets crushed on an up day.

  • DrNo

    Crappy business to be it ,ASP drop like 40% a year,so volume has to makeup for that ,and that will not happen in this economy, surely there are better longs?Good

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    “Happy Chinese New Year to you Asian rats!”
    Thanks mole…Happy New Year to you, too. Just don't go mad cow celebrating it…

  • LordTed

    Don't know about Chinese New Year, but it is a New Moon today (26th) New Moons tend to be highs… but what do I know.
    Any moonies on here?

  • molecool

    Can we just wait what will happen? A lot folks seem to want to interpret a little throw-over as a decisive move Just sit back and watch – the market will let us know.

    As I said, this is going to be a complex week – our brain's rationalizations will probably limp behind reality. Let it happen I say and then take action as opposed to trying to force it by reading into specious correlations, news, rumors, etc. I'm not sure what type of trader you are but unless you are a day trader I don't see much play here in equities (yet).

  • cnbs08

    Nice try at some more deception……….

  • molecool

    Fake outs galore – especially this week, I'm sure.

  • Darwin

    ISRG….bulding momentum

  • molecool

    They keep trying to 'talk it down' – yeah – but in the long term it's an uphill battle and they will lose, meaning the Yen will bust higher.

  • rhae

    I watch the the moon when not to cloudy… Oh for the charts, usually key on the $VIX around then

  • Insect Overlord

    Anyone considering a strangle for tomorrows FOMC meeting? If /NQ hits 1200 I will likely short it. Which means I may buy calls on QLD if I do to hedge. Still working it out in my head. Curious to know people's thoughts.

  • cnbs08

    Okay……time to step back up to the plate and buy some SRS and SKF again……

  • Keirsten

    Only when someone mentions it. That said, we have an annular solar eclipse today as a matter of fact, and a full moon plus a penumbral lunar eclipse on the 9th.

  • Teito

    any rat still in TBT :)

    TLT breaking $107 is key…. and it could close the gap to $105 before bouncing…

  • C.C. Rider

    Just a heads up for the MOUTHBREATHERS! PPT signal on high alert, or I wouldn't be nearly so bullish here. On day six of a screaming buy signal that has not missed for me in 18 mos. They won't ring a bell when it happens but half the move could happen in 2 hours.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/texana44/folder

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&

  • El Gato

    Good point…….pretty pathetic when education companies are providing leadership

  • geckoman

    HI CC. I am not sure I am following. What is the PPT Signal?

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    I merely said, “don't go crazy celebrating.”
    If you trade crazy, then I can't help it… : )

  • hindawg

    so that's a no………. 8-l

  • C.C. Rider

    From McHugh,

    Application of then indicator is simple. When readings are above positive +20.00 percent, it means the risk of a short-covering rally is high, and there is good probability that the rally will see upside follow through. Interestingly, when readings fall below negative -16.00, there is also a good probability that a significant rally will follow. These levels are starting blocks for rallies. This indicator does not give “sell” signals, however we have noticed that if the reading rises to an extreme high, above positive +35.00ish, we have seen at least short-term declines. Also, when this reading has dropped to an extreme low, below negative -35.00ish, we also see short-term declines. Declines have occurred when readings are between negative 16.00 and positive 20.00, so there is some risk there, however, if you are looking for a place where a long position might make sense, this indicator has identified some pretty good entry points.

    For the PPT to be effective in driving markets higher, the potential for a sustained turnaround rally depends upon a high volume of open short interest. By measuring this short interest by the level of CBOE put options, we can gauge when markets are ripe for PPT intervention. The way it works is the PPT decides markets need intervention, a decline needs to be stopped, or the risks associated with political events that could be perceived by markets as highly negative and cause a decline, need to be prevented by a rally already in flight. To get that rally, the PPT's key component – the Fed – lends money to surrogates who will take that fresh electronically printed cash and buy markets through some large unknown buyer's account. That buying comes out of the blue at a time when short interest is high. The unexpected rally strikes blood, and fear overcomes those who were betting the market would drop. These shorts need to cover, need to buy the very stocks they had agreed to sell (without owning them) at today's prices in anticipation they could buy them in the future at much lower prices and pocket the difference. Seeing those stocks rally above their committed selling price, the shorts are forced to buy – and buy they do. Thus, those most pessimistic about the equity market end up buying equities like mad, fueling the rally that the PPT started. Bingo, a huge turnaround rally is well underway, or a rally already underway is extended, and sidelines money from Hedge Funds, Mutual funds and individuals rushes in to join in the buying madness for several days and weeks as the rally gathers a life of its own.

  • Erikd

    XLF set-up for monday update http://screencast.com/t/hT1n2wEfwpq
    $SPX upside down Roof Top pattern update: http://screencast.com/t/XlD6BXwcLk

  • molecool

    He's talking about the ADX:

    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart

  • molecool

    NEW EVIL DEED.

  • molecool

    What is it with the McHugh fascination around here? I don't get it…

  • Erikd

    I see us rallying to 860 area today from here the pulling back tomorrow to the 840 area possibly tomorrow morning… as long as we do not close below XLF 8.70 level bottoming formation will finish out…

  • alphahorn

    i was quoting a Will Ferrell skit, i guess you didn't see it

  • etechpartner

    Went short at 847, then got nervous and closed at 842, then went short again at 841 (on a rip) . Mainly based on the information provided by 2sweeties with confidence bolstered by Zero. As the signal kept going down I was feeling more comfortable. Now if we actually start to see some short ETA or VTA from the indicator I will increase my position a little more.

  • maya

    where do you get info from 2sweeties?
    thanks

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    I got that “mad cowing” from “a Night at the Roxbury.” : )

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I saw no one commented on my inverse h/s pattern in GLD last night. Looks like it is up nicely.Next stop 100?

    http://screencast.com/t/gmKLmo5bH4

  • tfyisrich

    Mole,

    The silver charts is currently in a bearish wedge with resistance right at 12.50's i see this the top for the market along with commodities time to cut out your hedge as I think the commodities will run into stiff resistance today and lead the market lower in the coming weeks.

  • standard_and_poor

    Nicey nice this time,aye.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i commented last night about commodities flying with the topped $, and it's playing out across the board, i would love a week of days like today

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the party in oil might just be starting, watch the dxo if it breaks through $3.05 next stop might be $3.5

  • tfyisrich

    oh yeah Happy new years to you to.

  • El Gato

    BAC of continues its march higher. This is the piece of the puzzle that the bulls have been dearly missing in their thesis. Financials strengthening could certainly embolden the bulls. The buyers are higher and path of maximum frustration remains to the upside.

  • Keirsten

    VIX sitting right at support – 44.60, but set a SAR sell this morning.

  • El Gato

    Gold and oil are now moving in tandem indicating that the consumer may have one last reach for the credit pool. This is bullish

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    X?nnián kuàilè = ????

    Damn – Chinese characters don't stick in the WP post.

  • tfyisrich

    look at the $cpc we are going to go down fast after today.

  • Cross

    Ironically, it's the year of the Ox …

  • Vardoger

    UNG is taunting me… I hate you

  • Keirsten

    Chinese Proverb:
    Be not afraid of growing slowly, be afraid only of standing still.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Emotions = bad = doing foolish things = losses.

  • JWBlack

    Why did the dark green line from the previous candle disappear? I thought signals stayed once the candle was established.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    mole, you said you didn't trust the move, but why not just play bgu with a stop?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    1+ for keeping an eye on this one. I posted the chart above.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I”m not sure what you're saying. The instrument has no bearing on my overall outlook on the market.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nope – they don't – the latest candle gets adjusted on each tick while it's active. Would you rather have a candle move 15 points first before you enter it? There's no perfect way of handling it.

    It would be like TOS painting an hour candle once it's done – you wouldn't like that either ;-)

    BTW, are you reading the comments I'm adding to the chart?

  • cnbs08

    That felt like the “fakeout breakout” we needed to see before they reverse things hard the other way…….

  • Vardoger

    Dead on, natgas is like my crazy ex girlfriend.. I just look the other way now and run

  • JWBlack

    Yes, I am reading your comments in the chart.

    My experience with your wonderful Z is to just follow the signals and ignore personal opinions.

  • Vardoger

    Emotions = bad = doing foolish things = losses.

    –courtesy of Mole

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Possibility, yes. There is no momentum either way though – so, let's not jump to conclusions until we see some meat either way. I would be equally hesitant to take a short ETA here if it's weak.

  • El Gato

    Beta complex is strong and breadth is stellar. Three ducks lined up; Banks/brokers/ semis.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I agree that this is the idea. But it's not my 'opinion' that kept me from taking this trade – it was the weak signal. I have a hard time coding all the rules I like into thinkscript. I could increase the threshold for signals but that would keep stable ones away which are not spiking at first and stick around. So, it's a tough one to enforce – I have tried.

    Right now I have been cautious about taking signals which are flat and spike quickly – they seem to be MM traps which only lead to false positives and thus accumulating losses.

    Maybe a bit further down the line I can translate my latest observations into tangible rules. Until then, feel free to either trade the signals as you see them or consider my input. After all I wrote the thing….

  • El Gato

    Good point Moley. I am looking at BIDU that has lagged badly and is now quite strong. Has yet to spill over

  • cnbs08

    I'm thinking good old ben bertanke will give us just what we need to get the snowball rolling down the hill on wednesday……….have faith in ben, has he ever let us down before………

    So maybe we get some more whipsaw bs over the next day or two…..while the bulltard vacuum comes on in full force to suck in as much money as possible from unsuspecting bulls…….and then maybe one last final fakeout rally post fed decision before the real plunge…….jmho as always….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are right – breadth on SPX is 1:10 positive. CPC however is completely crazy (see above) and all this doesn't make sense. I prefer to trade when I see a cohesive picture.

  • cnbs08

    That's right…….lure in those bulltards……..Time to buy stocks again bc we have bottomed…….puahahaha!

  • RPinSC

    Mole, they become permanent print after 1 hour, correct?

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    The wave count must be wrong, because this thing ain't getting to 930ish.

  • C.C. Rider

    Mole,
    Doesn't the breach of SPX 836 discard your orange path?

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/20

    I think we're now enroute on the blue path to 930ish.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/texana44/folder

  • El Gato

    Keeping an open mind here. Gladly take either side of the trade

  • Keirsten

    In the meanwhile… check out last week's candle on SKF. The P/F chart also shows a double bottom breakdown as of today- will need more time to pass for a confirmation on that signal however. Rubbing greedy hands together- love to buy this one cheaper.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF&p=W&b=5&g=

  • rhae

    SPY … just a test, they been muck'in with my webhost, trying to get charts going…
    http://h1.ripway.com/jaker/SPY%20Jan%2026.bmp

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the dxo was consolidating around its 50% retracement level of $2.92-3 it's starting to climb off that level now and if it breaks $3.05 it might lead the party

  • El Gato

    ENR is running hot on my lagging dog scan.

  • JWBlack

    I went long once the long ETA stuck on Friday. I am waiting for one of two things to get bearish/cautious — a sell signal from the Z or an extreme move that hits a very high RL such as 875. If the sell signal precedes an extreme RL, I go with the Z..

  • Publius Federali

    Does anything make sense anymore?

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Thanks for the CPC chart Mole. Indeed it is sobering. I'm still net short and this gives a little more confidence to stay that way.

    It appears that the market wants to rise into the probable rescue announcement. Perhaps it will and that will be a sell the news event. Dunno.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the question is when, not sure it will come today, at least not before the last 30 mins of trading

  • rosocecasita

    Wouldn't the CPC just mean that a lot of people want “insurance” on their buy in's? Because EVERY one and there mom is bearish? As all the bulls have 'died and rolled over', and this rally makes no sense?

    Sounds like a Wave 1 to me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NOV is doing very well today…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    as have dnr, hk, cam, nice day for energy plays

  • Keirsten

    GS clipped resistance at 78.65 by a dime and now letting off some pressure.

  • eurobear

    Friday wasn't a throwover as was suggested. We are going up from here IMHO.

  • LeTrader

    PNRA looks good as a short here. Any takers?

  • C.C. Rider

    I concur, eurobear.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    looks low the djia is forming a bull pennant as it builds to break through its 50% restracement of 8235

  • http://trading-to-win.com DavidDT

    SLV (as well as GLD at92.50) will present short opp by the end of this week

  • El Gato

    AMZN also coming in on the lagging dog scan. Tempted to start a tracking short here

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My wave count is wrong because Troy doesn't see 930 in the time frame he's giving the market.

    Right.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are assuming that the majority of traders use options for hedging? I wouldn't be sure of that but have no statistics to prove otherwise.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The big picture does – the intra-day spasms do not.

  • Gwahir

    I suspect sinkscript is not good enough for it… it might be worthwhile to check which of the factors going into the zero cause most of the trouble aka as false signals. There should be patterns, kind of a decision tree approach might be helpful. Too long a sequence of rules without structure will not work.

  • Publius Federali

    So we should wait to have a better idea of which big picture we are following and forget the noise in between. Like when we hit the puts in January?

  • El Gato

    “”Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehood and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited” Soros

    Is the education trade playing out here in Ponzi scheme fashion? The momentum crowd is clearing out. ESI / APOL / DV

  • OldChicago

    Yen, Yuan – Geithner has started mumbling about Obama's believe that Chinese Gov manipulating Yuan and warning Japanese Gov. on interfering currency market. So, he probably saw this coming.

    by the way, this is the year of BULL! for the Asians.

  • Steve

    good ZERO!

  • rosocecasita

    Make shit up mostly; I'm good at that =D

    Just seems like a plausibility and this : http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3324/3224260575_

    While it may seem that conditions may not have changed; there may be major changes in people Perception of Conditions.

    And as the Fed's have guaranteed any & all banks to 'Be Solvent', Only short of the U.S. Declaring bankruptcy, then i would bet down.

    I'm thinking mostly sideways, with a mild trend upwards. That's all it takes to break the most trend lines, which seems like the most pain to everyone. (Exception: Options Sellers)

  • Publius Federali

    Great start to this presidency, start fighting with a country that holds a trillion dollars of our debt and we need them to buy more of it. Is this how we get into a trade war and then a real war? Geithner is a fool, as is his boss. Blaming China for our problems is moronic. And we are not manipulating our currency? What would you call zero percent fed funds rate? We hold no cards against the Chinese, fighting with them can lead to nothing but horrible things.

  • Yux

    Castrated rally in Asia?

  • rosocecasita

    We accuse them first… That way it doesn't look like we started it when we manipulate.

  • rhae

    working on another stupid inside day, guess we just have to see which way it breaks

  • standard_and_poor

    Clueless about spx, but still clutching my puts. Hope you are as well (clutching).

  • YOGI

    Maybe this explains the PC ratio

    A large option trade after the market opened in the SPDR S&P 500 SPY.P
    exchange-traded fund suggests a bullish short-term view on the broad market,
    said Trade Alert president Henry Schwartz. The transaction involved a bullish
    put spread collar in the ETF, often called the Spiders. It traded on the
    International Securities Exchange 50,000 times in which a customer bought Feb
    $88 calls while selling the Feb $70/$76 put spread for a net debit of 86 cents,
    he said. SPY options normally trade over 1 million contracts daily but trades
    this large are rare and suggest a bullish short-term view on the broad market.
    Notional value is $422 million, Schwartz said. SPY shares rose to 2.21 percent
    to $84.94. Reuters Messaging: doris.frankel.reuters.com@reuters.net
    0958 ET 26Jan2009-Citi: volatility will decrease in 2009

  • hindawg

    Mole, have you considered last week 1/21 a 5th W failure and we are now in 4(larger degree) – your blue path. Same short term scenario but changes the longer term pattern. A complete, B Friday exhaustion gap and this C impulsive for 1. Any thoughts?

  • HungryNewt

    yep. politics as usual

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Wow.. just looked at the Feb chain for SPY, those are some ridiculous volumes. Thanks for the heads up.

  • Publius Federali

    Japanese keep talking about intervention to weaken the Yen. They don't like to act alone but can not work in conjunction with us as we have no one leading treasury yet. Intervention can work for weakening your currency, it does not work for strengthening it. They can print money until the cows come home and weaken the currency tremendously. This is all getting really tricky.

  • BovineStew

    Feb spy max pain is at 88

  • El Gato

    Last size of 1.49 K of the Feb 40 puts for ENR….open interest is standing at 7.8K

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Possible long play: MU

    In a consolidation wedge for two months now, and was slamming up and down against the trend lines last week. Broke out to the upside on Friday, retested the trend line and stayed above water. Fading today, and I haven't taken a position yet, but keeping a close eye on it. Thoughts?

  • rhae

    I see fake outs often in low volume donut hour… easier to pick off stops

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i'm a big fan of scenario blue

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Nice find. It has earnings in a couple of days though. That throws it out for me.

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    Not good for the rally monkeys when the bull side leader gets crushed on an up day.

  • DrNo

    Crappy business to be it ,ASP drop like 40% a year,so volume has to makeup for that ,and that will not happen in this economy, surely there are better longs?Good Luck ,use to own a lot of it.

  • Steve

    “Happy Chinese New Year to you Asian rats!”
    Thanks mole…Happy New Year to you, too. Just don't go mad cow celebrating it… : )

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    would you rather be the world's greatest trader or get mad cow disease?

  • Lordted

    Don't know about Chinese New Year, but it is a New Moon today (26th) New Moons tend to be highs… but what do I know.
    Any moonies on here?

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Hey, the proof is in the pudding. You can't be right until you are right.

    I thought you were closing down this blog? Can't you go argue with people who disagree with your throwover theory?

    Toodles…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can we just wait what will happen? A lot folks seem to want to interpret a little throw-over as a decisive move Just sit back and watch – the market will let us know.

    As I said, this is going to be a complex week – our brain's rationalizations will probably limp behind reality. Let it happen I say and then take action as opposed to trying to force it by reading into specious correlations, news, rumors, etc. I'm not sure what type of trader you are but unless you are a day trader I don't see much play here in equities (yet).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Do you live down there or is it your ethnic background?

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Just for the record, I went back into the June 65s this morning at $2.80.

  • cnbs08

    Nice try at some more deception……….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fake outs galore – especially this week, I'm sure.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The 76Ps and 70Ps are popular today :-)

  • Darwin

    ISRG….bulding momentum

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They keep trying to 'talk it down' – yeah – but in the long term it's an uphill battle and they will lose, meaning the Yen will bust higher.

  • rhae

    I watch the the moon when not to cloudy… Oh for the charts, usually key on the $VIX around then

  • Insect Overlord

    Anyone considering a strangle for tomorrows FOMC meeting? If /NQ hits 1200 I will likely short it. Which means I may buy calls on QLD if I do to hedge. Still working it out in my head. Curious to know people's thoughts.

  • cnbs08

    Smells like a good old friend…….

  • cnbs08

    Okay……time to step back up to the plate and buy some SRS and SKF again……unless of course you believe that today is shaping up to be a trend day…..meaning we explode much much higher…….

    I don't think we do……jmho tho.

  • Keirsten

    Only when someone mentions it. That said, we have an annular solar eclipse today as a matter of fact, and a full moon plus a penumbral lunar eclipse on the 9th.

  • Teito

    any rat still in TBT :)

    TLT breaking $107 is key…. and it could close the gap to $105 before bouncing…

  • C.C. Rider

    Just a heads up for the MOUTHBREATHERS! PPT signal on high alert, or I wouldn't be nearly so bullish here. On day six of a screaming buy signal that has not missed for me in 18 mos. They won't ring a bell when it happens but half the move could happen in 2 hours.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/texana44/folder

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=0&

  • Steve

    I was born in Taiwan (parents were born in China) and came to the States when I was 15. I call Chicago home. I have cousins in LA, and I was thinking about moving there years ago, but decided not to. Love LA though.

  • El Gato

    Good point…….pretty pathetic when education companies are providing leadership

  • OldChicago

    I meant to say it is a year of OX, not BULL.

    I don't necessary agree with all the government antics about Chinese or Japanese. But, I noticed that the trade war has turned into “currency war”, subtly. All these affects the equity market. This is manipulation to the highest level – government who owns you and may sell you as a slave, not literally.

  • geckoman

    HI CC. I am not sure I am following. What is the PPT Signal?

  • Steve

    I merely said, “don't go crazy celebrating.”
    If you trade crazy, then I can't help it… : )

  • hindawg

    so that's a no………. 8-l

  • C.C. Rider

    From McHugh,

    Application of then indicator is simple. When readings are above positive +20.00 percent, it means the risk of a short-covering rally is high, and there is good probability that the rally will see upside follow through. Interestingly, when readings fall below negative -16.00, there is also a good probability that a significant rally will follow. These levels are starting blocks for rallies. This indicator does not give “sell” signals, however we have noticed that if the reading rises to an extreme high, above positive +35.00ish, we have seen at least short-term declines. Also, when this reading has dropped to an extreme low, below negative -35.00ish, we also see short-term declines. Declines have occurred when readings are between negative 16.00 and positive 20.00, so there is some risk there, however, if you are looking for a place where a long position might make sense, this indicator has identified some pretty good entry points.

    For the PPT to be effective in driving markets higher, the potential for a sustained turnaround rally depends upon a high volume of open short interest. By measuring this short interest by the level of CBOE put options, we can gauge when markets are ripe for PPT intervention. The way it works is the PPT decides markets need intervention, a decline needs to be stopped, or the risks associated with political events that could be perceived by markets as highly negative and cause a decline, need to be prevented by a rally already in flight. To get that rally, the PPT's key component – the Fed – lends money to surrogates who will take that fresh electronically printed cash and buy markets through some large unknown buyer's account. That buying comes out of the blue at a time when short interest is high. The unexpected rally strikes blood, and fear overcomes those who were betting the market would drop. These shorts need to cover, need to buy the very stocks they had agreed to sell (without owning them) at today's prices in anticipation they could buy them in the future at much lower prices and pocket the difference. Seeing those stocks rally above their committed selling price, the shorts are forced to buy – and buy they do. Thus, those most pessimistic about the equity market end up buying equities like mad, fueling the rally that the PPT started. Bingo, a huge turnaround rally is well underway, or a rally already underway is extended, and sidelines money from Hedge Funds, Mutual funds and individuals rushes in to join in the buying madness for several days and weeks as the rally gathers a life of its own.

  • Erikd

    XLF set-up for monday update http://screencast.com/t/hT1n2wEfwpq
    $SPX upside down Roof Top pattern update: http://screencast.com/t/XlD6BXwcLk

  • rosocecasita

    Leverage Applied @ Catalyst.

    Got to admire that handy work & keeping up the illusion.

  • etechpartner

    Maya – he used to come around the blogs quite frequently but lately has been busy. The info is subscription only. That might be a turn-off for you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He's talking about the ADX:

    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NEW EVIL DEED.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I can see that – but I'm still cautious on deciding which direction right now. Only the paranoid survive…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What is it with the McHugh fascination around here? I don't get it…

  • Erikd

    I see us rallying to 860 area today from here (835-840) area then pulling back tomorrow to the 840 area possibly tomorrow morning… as long as we do not close below XLF 8.70 level bottoming formation will finish out…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i was quoting a Will Ferrell skit, i guess you didn't see it

  • etechpartner

    Went short at 847, then got nervous and closed at 842, then went short again at 841 (on a rip) . Mainly based on the information provided by 2sweeties with confidence bolstered by Zero. As the signal kept going down I was feeling more comfortable. Now if we actually start to see some short ETA or VTA from the indicator I will increase my position a little more.

  • maya

    where do you get info from 2sweeties?
    thanks

  • Steve

    I got that “mad cowing” from “a Night at the Roxbury.” : )




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