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Riding This Beast Into The Sunset
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Riding This Beast Into The Sunset

Riding This Beast Into The Sunset

by The MoleJanuary 20, 2015

Forget about equities – everyone and their mother is trying to sort out this gyrating stop sweeping mess. And yes, they are about to get interesting (see below), but I expect our chart of the month to be gold and not the spoos or the NQ.

2015-01-20_gold_update

Fortunately some of us rats managed to secure a seat on the bus just before it took off. I have to run the numbers as I scaled into a bit over an R between 2012 and 2018. Which gets me to roughly 10R at this point and I’m just getting warmed up. The weekly shows us approaching the 100-week SMA – our first major hurdle. However I’m going to keep my stop below 1272 for now in expectation of an obligatory shake out attempt.

riding_into_the_sunset

The long term implications of this campaign are very promising and with a bit of finesse it’s possible that we’ll ride this sucker into the sunset. Which means somewhere around 1500 – you heard it here first.

2015-01-20_spoos_update

Okay on to equities – which as I said are about to get extremely interesting. We currently are what I believe are the late stages of a limbo period (see my 2012 excerpt on market weather). However we are most likely facing long term implications here – this is not just another leg lower or higher. I repeatedly have pointed out the increase in intra-day volatility expressed here by long wicks and overlapping candles. Very very tough tape to get a read and even tougher to get a good entry. Which is exactly why most traders miss the early stages of a downside correction.

2015-01-20_spoos_GBPJPY

But let’s not count our chicken before they are hatched. Most likely it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The GBP/JPY correlation is pointing upward right now and I think short term it’s quite possible we’re going to stop out the current NQ short campaign (courtesy of Thor).

2015-01-20_UVOL_DVOL

However there is conflicting evidence and in order to interpret the big picture we need to put it all into context. Now our UVOL/DVOL ratio today remains pretty negative despite the current push higher – could be indicative of slow accumulation especially as the Zero is donning a very flat signal (meaning little participation and quite a lot of monkey business).

A LOT more below the fold – not a post to miss – please meet me in the lair:

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Bonus chart:

2015-01-20_CrazyIvan

CrazyIvan now at 77R – new all time highs since 1/1/2014. Who would have thunk? And it started to really get cracking when volatility was on the increase starting November/December. Seems like CrazyIvan is loving the IV and I hope to see more of this. Message to everyone who left during the summer: Watch the Nick Rage video again. This is a long term game, folks and instead of going with the program I watch you picking up pennies in front of bulldozers. Enough said.

Cheers,

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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