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Running In Circles
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Running In Circles

by The MoleNovember 13, 2017

The relentless advance in equities over the past few weeks/months may have distracted us from the fact that several key markets have continued to run in circles. Attempting to take break-out entries in highly volatile sideways conditions can quickly turn into a sequence of losses. Of course the realization of this is usually only clear in hindsight as regime change is difficult to anticipate.

2017-11-13_spoos_update

It however seems increasingly likely that equities may either join the fray and start pushing sideways for a while, or not waste time and launch a much overdue correction. The lottery ticket I placed last Friday, while still in play, is quickly starting to lose its luster. A stop out and ensuing breach of ES 2563 and a drop through the daily NLSL just a few ticks lower will most likely lead us back to 2540 (the lower 25-day BB) at minimum.

2017-11-13_bonds_LT

Bonds have been basically stuck in sideways mode for over a year now, thanks in part to a never ending series of contradicting statements issued by the Federal Reserve. One of these days it’s going to pick a direction and run like hell. In the interim I suggest to only take the most delicious looking dips, preferably near the 100-day SMA (which is now beginning to plot sideways).

2017-11-13_silver_exit

Silver was a lot of fun until October after which it curled up and just stretched out along its 100-day SMA. That entry last week looked like it was ready to rip but unfortunately it once more turned on a dime and stopped us out.

SLV_weekly_sharpe_stats

The coming weeks are a bit tricky for precious metals in general. We may see a bit of upside next week and the one thereafter, but unless you’re trading near NYE December is not looking promising for long positions.

2017-11-13_GBPUSD_update

Alright on the Forex side we’ve got everyone’s bitch boy, the GBP/USD, which basically swings wildly based on every single BREXIT related news, most of which is highly speculative and even continues to confuse the people in charge of negotiating the exit conditions. Plenty of fuel for machinations and thus unless we’ll see a very solid looking setup we’ll have to refrain.

2017-11-13_EURUSD

The EUR/USD has been pretty stubborn about giving up any turf, stepping down in two consecutive sideways ranges. At this point it looks to me that we may flatten out here as that 25-day SMA seems to be offering support now. Only a breach of < 1.158 would lead us lower and even then it may take a while as I don’t see any fast candles here. Too many buyers betting on the German economy it seems and the international perception is that Merkel has it in the bag and Europe is heading into a glorious future. They couldn’t be any more wrong but that’s probably a topic for a different blog.

2017-11-13_USDJPY

Finally the Yen has been stuck in its own sideways range for the better part of this year with apparently no resolution in sight. Unless we see a breach of 114.50 post haste I’m afraid it’s going to head lower once more, at minimum retesting the 100-day SMA near 110.47. Which may be a good thing as a spike low there would be an entry I’d take any day. Once again low odds of succeeding but if it ever does it’ll burn all the shorts to a crisp.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • HD

    GM Mole, All. Opex week! Monday: Budget deficit at 2pm. Tuesday: PPI. Wednesday: CPI, retail sales, the NY FED and business inventories. Thursday: jobless claims, export/import prices, the Philly FED, industrial production (+0.4%), and the NAHB. Friday: housing starts, building permits and options expiration.

    Nov. campaign has gone as planned. Suggested rocky start to SPX, as previous 2 years had. Immediately got the HWB L entry 2566 into round numbers. Suggested round numbers will be R, as every round level has. Got on the C=A 2576 wave. We are now set up for low before OPEX. That has been the pattern this year at least. Let’s see what they give us.
    Mind the 13 D EMA and gap under 2575 Pivot. JMHO

  • kim

    just watched big short over the weekend, anyone detecting any bubble :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry about the Zero – forgot to press the on button :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn…. it’s going to be one of those weeks….

  • Julie

    INTC As expected in a previous post watching for a bounce at the 13 ema Yeah 14 cents above was the bounce this a.m. Will cover short at 46.18 if attained for basically BE
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    LOL. I watched it a few months ago. It was a good movie but I doubt most people would have that kind of staying power. Everytime I think about this movie, I also think about the guy who was posting here and went all in short with QID at about $32. I think he even talked about selling some land so he could go in big like they did in “The Big Short”. I just took a peek at QID and at last print was $13.87. If he’s still in, he’s taken about a 57% Loss so far. The sad part about plays like this is how much the NAZ has to go down just for him to get even.

    I think he was also a big “Zero Hedge” guy. I’ve been a huge Perma Bear before and found it dramatically dangerous to my financial health. If the markets ever tumble again, there should be plenty of time to get short on the way down.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good morning darling.

  • Julie

    BL You short the lower high as I am watching BAC for a bounce to a lower high. I have a short INTC which should work … Shame on me for attempting to top pick INTC but I have my reasons. TAL I am short the lower high. BL Have A Great Week !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    That bubble has so much crap within it I think its better to try to ride above it while never getting in its way.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Suspicious as there is barely any participation.

  • Julie

    Hi Mole Sounds like you are ready for a big week It will be interesting Chief !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Given the event schedule I better stock up on the Zoloft…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice to have you “right there” with this.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t get used to it!! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now seriously, this is very odd and I have rarely seen anything this directional without at least a minimal spike on the Zero. If you’re long here be cautious… I know stupid advice as there’s not much to be done but just don’t double down or anything like that.

  • StockTalker

    Looking corrective on the hourly

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looked like a blatant gratuitous stop run….as though there was no more business to be had. I shorted it as a lotto at really obvious resistance, very tight.

  • Julie

    Stocktalker 2584.50 is the daily 5 ema. Also watching 2581.59 which it went above
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Well, took a stab at /NKD last week and it paid off. Been long /ZT and took a position in /ZB long last week. Looking for US equities to follow suit finally. Got tired of messing with NQ, lol

  • Julie

    BAC Yeah ! One more test of support and the daily 55 ema. Now the bounce to a lower high for the short target 26.92 – 27.03 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/df6b17f026193dc46fe4414178e9750a70e05af6fa7a24aae5a709c52d10d680.png

  • StockTalker

    OPEX week? Damn, interesting week for sure:)

  • Julie

    $SPX Daily Chart . A close today above the daily 5 ema 2584. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66a3b0d8f1707b0ec2ae999cdbe13c021276500032d5f4c391c5e5ce0dade3fa.png 19 and or 2581.59 ( the Ichi Cloud conversion line 8) is bullish . A bearish close below the Ichi Cloud baseline 21 at 2570.51 is the short JULIEl

  • Julie

    EDIT Misstype 2570.51 not 2470.51
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BobbyLow

    You too Julie. Whatever works for you is the correct way.. I try to keep things as simple as possible and buy strength and sell weakness. I miss out on the first part of a move and don’t get out until after a move is over. I prefer to get a chunk out of the middle. :)

  • Ronebadger

    Zero is negative/neutral … while ES jumps 10 points

  • Julie

    BL The fattest mouse gets the middle part of the cheese !
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    (former) Perma Bears UNITE!!!

  • Julie
  • Julie

    Ronebadger I is in your corner !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good onya :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My point exactly – I’m still not trusting this but my position is in the green so fuggit..

  • StockTalker

    lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Putting my stop to break/even now. If we get a break down here and now it’ll drop a lot lower.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Mark Shinnick

    Hey Gerb, how about that GE?

  • Julie

    Great Mole Had to step away for a few hours
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    True but IMO, just like the Stock Market, the pendulum of politics ALWAYS overcorrects. For example, we had LBJ’s “Great Society” in 1964 and Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” in 1994, . Although there were some good things in both concepts, there were enough factors over the top in both to drive moderates to eventually vote for change. It appears that we’ve now gone from an extreme of political correctness to the other extreme where if you don’t agree with me you are my enemy. In the 1800’s there were actual fist fights in congress so I suppose even extreme nastiness is nothing new.

    So by my lens, once a given side gets the majority of power, they tend to push their agenda so far that moderates begin to choke on it. At this point the “party” in power is over. :) Whatever you want to call it, I believe in the old saying “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”

    I’ve always been one of those more or less a moderates and whenever I’ve seen one side get all the power, it’s only been a matter of time before the pendulum begins to swing the other way.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its the violence being promoted on the streets police aren’t responding to that has me most concerned.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Dividend cut in half! Investors are F’ed.
    Muwahahaha!

    For knife catchers, wouldn’t touch it until sub 17. or even 13. (see chart)
    I have no position at the time.
    Cheers!
    [GE]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&p=W&st=2009-11-02&en=(today)&id=p84285000475
    -GG

  • Julie

    GG DB Weekly chart Descending triangle possible D leg of triangle. Going up into the weekly upper cloud boundary resistance. Overbought weekly and daily. May short DB back GG Shown DB weekly chart TAL and INTC shorts working out as planned and have breakeven stops JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/76f235510bcf72464ea5b00615f66d4a33dc21955ce8abea0d008936081ff7fe.png

  • Julie

    GG GE At one time was considered a bellweather …… HMMMM !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    http://i.imgur.com/WlJYB3l.jpg

    it was garbage in 2009, and still is IMHO.

  • Julie

    GG I agree INTC up volume today Jack Poop !. Stopped today just shy of the declining 5 ema Yeah !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Financial games for years with this Jewel of America only recently showing its effects. Have to ask ourselves how long a financially-corrupted corporate America is going to be allowed by the marketto keep up all the hype.

  • HD

    Correct. Very clear pattern all year in week of OPEX.

  • HD

    Nice to come in today w a bullish bias. 2575 pivot has been good. 25(89) next R and will be flat into turn around Tuesday.

  • Julie

    Guys You may find this chart interesting and helpful. MTUM with Heiken Ashi candles. A bearish close below the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) corroborated by a swing failure RSI Well … ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0198af9422db9520e48258ab97c38a9dd3fc9790e349e2fed42d3ca11a06a919.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I got short triggers in the last hours so may be holding overnight.

  • HD

    Good job Mark! Time stamp that exit. Ha. That was close.

  • Julie

    Mark You might be on to something i.e. A drop below the uptrend line from October 25 at approx. 2572 would be a bearish heads up . Then a drop below Thursday’s low approx. 2566 would really augment the Bear’s case. Also a bearish close below 2570 the Ichi Cloud baseline 21
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    This really does seem like running circles though, Mole has that right.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t trust HA candles – prefer the real thing.

  • Julie

    BAC mirrors $BKX…. $BKX down to it’s 89 ema and gap and price support. Oversold. Now the shortable bounce to a lower high. BAC Chart below on a previous post bouncing off it’s daily 55 ema. Shown is https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51191231d0564fd079a316e51bc186db038e71f26ecdeaa4e76418e3aa9a8b29.png $BKX Daily Chart JULIE

  • Julie

    Notice the negative divergences RSI and MACD …. Don McClain “Bye Bye American Pie ” “Drove To The Levee But The Levee Was Dry ” JULIE

  • Julie

    Hi Mole I showed the Heiken Ashi candles to filter out some of the noise Mole and Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    With QE has been Bye Bye American Dream when many more of the last 2 generations have more trouble housing themselves.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t like them because they introduce an additional abstraction to what should be the purest element on one’s chart: price. A candle already only tells a fraction of the story and I am very hesitant to start messing with that. I want to see those gaps for example and I don’t care about emphasizing trends as they are already very clear to me.

  • Julie

    Its a shame Mark that many younger people still must live at home with their parents. Housing is indeed becoming less affordable When I was single I was able to buy a home and live by myself. The younger generation is unable to do that
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s a travesty what has been done to real estate across the West and in the past 10 years the same was done to student loans.

  • Julie

    Agree Mole A travesty indeed
    JULIE

  • Julie

    KEM Another high flyer taking it on the chin. KEM down to it’s weekly 55 ema and oversold. Daily chart notice the gap down and plunge at it’s Ichi Cloud lower boundary. IMO a long can be taken with a bullish close above it’s daily 5 ema approx. 16.19 with a target 17.31 (Ichi Cloud conversion line 8) and 20.90 (Ichi Cloud baseline 21) daily chart. Notice 20.90 is also the weekly Ichi Cloud conversion line 8. A low and declining volume bounce to above mentioned targets for a lower high would be shortable Shown are the daily and weekly charts J https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/971bdeea2685077028ff9a4435a9bea16a35d235eebe95cda846e7dcf9bc5d98.png J https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e47d379e5dee8b3a54be0da16885839f31b151b843af6d71a2a334257e2063de.png ULIE

  • Julie

    19.98 is also a target. 19.98 is the weekly Ichi Cloud baseline (21)
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Movement, time for a change.