Running Like A Hare

The tape across the board has been running like a hare and today’s session again did not offer us any reprieve from the relentless battering we’ve been through over the past few weeks. Up and down she goes although on the equities side it’s been more down than up and the fat lady hasn’t sung just yet.

Clearly I’m going to be limping behind here as things are unfolding quite rapidly. When I took that snapshot it was looking like equities may have found some ground but I simply didn’t trust it and posted in the comment section that it’s probably best to let things play out. That seems to have been good advice as the spoos are heading even lower as I’m typing this. To your collective benefit Mole’s instincts have been honed by decades of hairy tape 😉

The Zero is still showing us very little participation, once again indicative of a stop run by institutional traders. A lot of greedy retail rats are being burned here folks – consider yourself lucky you’re not one of them (I hope!).

The NQ printing lower highs and lower lows – this is not looking good. The 25-day SMA only offering soft support and this thing could easily resolve toward the 100-day SMA near 4317 before it’s all over.

On days like these it always pays to check breadth and momo charts. The VIX:VXO is showing me no divergence which is concerning.

More long term the VXV:VIX is also pointing down. That’s bad medicine…

Alright, updated across the board in no particular order:

The EUR/USD is now in earshot of my target and I’m taking everything but 25% of my position off the table. This campaign has done a great job of softening the impact of the shitty exchange rate I’ll probably be facing in the months ahead. Notice the weekly NLBL that has been sliced today.

EUR/JPY – same idea here – I’m taking almost everything off the table, only keeping 25% of my original position. Again my target is near the 100-day SMA where I would normally expect some obligatory resistance. But given the velocity of this short squeeze things could easily overshoot.

Crude – I’m quite stunned by how well this one has kept up given all the drama in the remaining futures pits. As you may remember I snagged a rather early seat near the 50 mark and remain determined to ride this puppy higher. Over the past week or so there was a lot of talk about crude having hit a high and I’m glad I didn’t listen – as always! 😉

ZF is not a setup yet but I like the daily and weekly panels here. As soon as it gives me an excuse to be long I’ll let you know.

Ditto on the 10-year futures but it’s a bit early to snag a position just yet. Let’s see how things play out Sunday night or on Monday.

Alright before I grab dinner a few juicy setups for my intrepid subs:

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Cheers,