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Running With Silver Futures
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Running With Silver Futures

by The MoleJanuary 4, 2017

I have no idea why people insist on wearing footwear that’s should be easily visible to the naked eye all the way up at the International Space Station. “Oh look – there goes Bill again – he’s up early for his morning run today!” Whenever you think that attention whoring has reached its maximum peak the intrepid engineers at Nike go to work and prove you wrong yet once again. Well done! And I thought three stripes on my Adidas pants were a bit flashy…

2017-01-04_silver

So obviously the topic of the day are the silver futures, just not the ones you wear to blind pilots and cause airplane crashes near international airports. I’m seeing a dual entry opportunity which may not be immediately apparent. It’s tempting to go long here as silver seems to be packing for a trip towards 17 and higher.

Long near 16.2

However being the crusty old cynic that I am it would take a retest to 16.2 to get me excited about a long opportunity. For one because precious metals have a nasty habit to run a hare ahead of big directional moves, just to stick it to you guys and cause general mayhem.

Short near 16.8ish

Now if it manages to push higher and paint a Retest Variation Short (RTV) then I’d tempted to take out a small short position in expectation of yet another slap down as seen numerous times over the past few weeks.

2017-01-04_copper

We’re sticking with the futures theme today – next runner up is copper. Which is a long here or > 2.47 if you can grab it this low. Stop should be set below 2.45 – add a few more ticks if you manage to get in lower.

But I had to keep my most favorite symbol today for my subs – please meet me in the lair:

evil_separator

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FOMC Announcement

2017-01-04_fomc

Apparently intents on starting the year with a bang. Watch your six around 2:00pm Eastern.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    FOMC minutes today might be a catalyst for both silver entries…
    cheers and good luck in your trading….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I added a warning for everyone.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I *am* a cynic when it comes to silver.

    “I want to see a positive, before a negative”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aca34b067687e44fb75df790c58fb8d62910fbad4f7495b92f07013e372f3e2d.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And you know what happened to him!

  • StockTalker

    Shorted /ES on the hourly div, see if it plays out.

  • Ronebadger

    those hourly divs take a while to play out…IF they play out

  • evilasevildoes

    seasonally energy puls back first two weeks of Jan then goes long second half short april cl long sept

  • StockTalker

    Ripe for the picking

  • ridingwaves

    IBB and XBI feeling that bio sector love today….
    XBI might have closed the gap yesterday I talked about last month but the sector is so beat up, it was due for some pull ups…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    getting in during Evils time frame above seems like best play with a loose stop as it could take build some energy for move before the end of month..

  • Yoda
  • StockTalker

    As usual, waiting on the feds

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    T minus 15.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I must be imagining things – is someone actually posting CHARTS?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    looks like a big nothinburger…

  • ridingwaves

    been mentioning this forever here-Obama is going out on top, to 20K and beyond….what happens after is beyond my pay grade….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I’m tapped out w XBI but REGN is basing really good if you can hold for a few months

  • Yoda

    Waitress could easily fit between these two buns ;-P

  • Yoda

    No mojo in this tape

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Lots of buy signals among gold miners, especially of small kind.
    here is the list.
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GSS,NG,AG,GPL,DRD,MUX,GSV,GORO,VGZ,HL,RIC,TRX|B|0

    This buy signal dies under recent lows, fwiw
    Almost the same as a couple of months ago, when buy signal was kind of smeared…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/670b5ef59d889716141db859b454970c4bbaa9b39ef92fad9009ea80d4450425.jpg

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Actually index masks alot of volatility.
    I’m carrying a fully loaded portfolio with stocks blowing all over the place (from +6% on FIG to -4% on VLO).
    Its been like this for days.

  • StockTalker

    never SAY NEVER:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it was a great run last year.
    But still in the Bologna zone IMHO. (cue Top Gun Music)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/75ccc137a0b8fa431df38f10f2ec69a55f6c10a69d0268d5ec5b65ef4f4a00c0.png

    stock pickers, go for it!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    That’s what makes it so appealing on longer time frame, with relatively small well defined risk. Especially so for low-priced juniors – they are like options without expiration date (can’t say the same about bologna…lol)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sometimes, you get what you pay for.
    sometimes, you get MORE.
    😉

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    O, I couldn’t agree more. Most of these stocks are total pos, and some probably a complete fucking scam (cough, trx, cough).

    Buy low, sell high… or at-least try…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..total POS
    ROFL.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Just trying to share some angles. Today was a really good day

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I missed the play on $DRG but I’m happy w my XBI

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    This year’s goals

    -cut down commissions drastically, i.e. no of trades to 25% or less of last year
    -focus on fading volatility 1-4x/ yr core trading strategy
    -on other stuff, strictly swing trades that need 2 wks-3 mo to work, i.e. China/ biotech for now

    Good thing about this, I will probably have sizable periods where I am thinly or not even in the market.

    I’ve tossed the short term RBT. Just wasn’t for me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Another reason to be cynical on silver, it’s dance partner gold.

    The weekly has relief bounced recently, and this would be the perfect place to stop and reverse, believing that support, becomes overhead resistance. (orange arrows)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b687a50e5d26bbf38e6869d57b67ed99dc21a537a68c95d977cdd0e194c56ea6.png

    In the spirit of “never say never”, maybe the move upward continues on. (green circle).
    I have my lines in the sand.

    -GG

  • Yoda

    If the green circle is reached, a long position I would lighten a bit.

  • ridingwaves

    A letter from Authur Ziekel (former head of Merrill Lynch Asset Mgmnt) to daughter on investing…maybe not pertinent here but a good read…

    “Personal portfolio management is not a competitive sport. It is, instead, an important individualized effort to achieve some predetermined financial goal balancing one’s risk-tolerance level with the desire to enhance capital wealth. Good investment management practices are complex and time consuming, requiring discipline, patience, and consistency of application. Too many investors fail to follow some simple, time-tested tenets that improve the odds of achieving success and, at the same time, reduce the anxiety naturally associated with an uncertain undertaking.

    I hope the following advice will help:

    A fool and his money are soon parted.

    Investment capital becomes a perishable commodity if not handled properly.

    Be serious. Pay attention to your financial affairs. Take an active, intensive interest. If you don’t, why should anyone else?

    There is no free lunch.

    Risk and return are interrelated. Set reasonable objectives using history as a guide. All returns relate to inflation. Better to be safe than sorry. Never up, never in.

    Most investors underestimate the stress of a high-risk portfolio on the way down.

    Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

    Diversify. Asset allocation determines the rate of return. Stocks beat bonds over time.

    Never overreach for yield.

    Remember, leverage works both ways. More money has been lost searching for yield than at the point of a gun (Ray DeVoe).

    Spend interest, never principal.

    If at all possible, take out less than comes in. Then, a portfolio grows in value and lasts forever. The other way around, it can be diminished quite rapidly.

    You cannot eat relative performance.

    Measure results on a total return, portfolio basis against your own objectives, not someone else’s.

    Don’t be afraid to take a loss.

    Mistakes are part of the game. The cost price of a security is a matter of historical significance, of interest only to the IRS.

    Averaging down, which is different from dollar cost averaging, means the first decision was a mistake. It is a technique used to avoid admitting a mistake or to recover a loss against the odds. When in doubt, get out. The first loss is not the best but is also usually the smallest.

    Watch out for fads.

    Hula hoops and bowling alleys (among others) didn’t last. There are no permanent shortages (or oversupply). Every trend creates its own countervailing force. Expect the unexpected.

    Act.

    Make decisions. No amount of information can remove all uncertainty. Have confidence in your moves. Better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.

    Take the long view.

    Don’t panic under short-term transitory developments. Stick to your plan. Prevent emotion from overtaking reason. Market timing generally doesn’t work. Recognize the rhythm of events.

    Remember the value of common sense.

    No system works all of the time. History is a guide, not a template.

    This is all you really need to know.

    Love, Dad”

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III