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Running With The Bulls
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Running With The Bulls

by The MoleApril 4, 2016

At the danger of pointing out the obvious but this is probably one of the most systematic and orderly advances I remember seeing. Clearly there hasn’t been a lack of bear traps over the past eight years but there’s something eery about an advance that, after having faced the abyss by mere handles, quietly gets on its way thereafter and never even as much as stops for a bathroom break.

2016-04-04_spoos

I personally love it but judging by participation in the comment section a good number of retail rats got caught on the wrong side of the tape. Perhaps there’s too little drama and end of world predictions when the tape runs up, or perhaps trading with the tape is too boring due to the lack of ZeroEdge sponsored fireworks? Alright, I’ll ease up on the snarkiness now 

2016-04-04_volatility

Volatility during the entire advance has been interesting and completely supportive of the bullish case. As long as it keeps dropping like this I expect equities to continue doing the inverse. Even the trend signal looks almost perfect and actually reminds me of what we saw late last year when the bears took it up the rectum for the first time. Based on that we may see a extreme reading of -3 or lower after painting a bit of sideways tape, followed by a quick floor drop that rips the face off of any remaining late comers. I for one (and a few intrepid subs) rode this puppy higher for almost a month but was finally stopped out last week on that swing lower below 2020. No complaints – we had a good run.

2016-04-04_euro

Before I go – keep your eyes on the Euro this week. I would love to see a push into 1.5, just to see Draghi’s face when he’s scheduled to make his next announcement on April 21st. Which will be the last one before June, so this ought to be interesting. In the interim I would caution against betting against the EUR, which means a weak Dollar, which of course is supportive for equities. Not that we’re trading the news but it’s always good to remind yourself what you’re up against.

I’m going to skip the setups today and suggest instead that you get up to speed on our first option related tutorial I posted last Friday. Either a significant number of you are professional option traders or there is only marginal interest. If you have pertinent questions or suggestions I propose that you take advantage of the comment section as Jay The Executioner will stand by to answer any questions you may have.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for the post. Not interested in options. Rather see your usual charts.

  • ridingwaves

    ACAD running to that 35 spot mentioned last week

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, nice Snarky barbs….. you landed a few 😉 I am down on VIX and also taking a break and working on my house. Things starting to look up around here.

  • Time Bandit

    We’ve been talking about how savers have been getting screwed for years. This morning I experienced this first hand. I wanted to put some money into a CD and keep it separate from my Trading and Forex Accounts. My wife and I went to our local branch bank this AM to try to do some business. I was told that the rate for a 1 year CD would be .1%. That is One Tenth of One Percent Folks! Now if I wanted to string it out for 4 Years, the rate would have been a WHOPPING .34%. That’s 34/100th of One Percent. I told her jokingly that I could get almost that much interest by putting the money into one of my socks at home and respectfully declined. The representative laughed and said she understood.

    Seriously, savers and people who should be risk adverse including the elderly are SCREWED and there appears to be no end in sight. So fuck it. I’m transfering that money to my trading account and just in time because thanks to Mole, I’ve added /ZL Soybean Oil and /ZC Corn Futures to my stable. Mole has had these two out to the right side of the ES Page for quite awhile. I finally took a look at them. I was pleased to see that they both have less than a $1,000 Margin Requirement per contract, I began working my back tests over the weekend and although, I still have some work to do with /ZC, they both appear to be tradable by both my lens and my temperament.

    So happy Monday Folks. 🙂 My current positions are Short Crude Oil, Short Integrated Oil Companies, Long Basic Materials, Short GBP/JPY and a newly added pony from this AM, Long /ZC.

  • mugabe

    similar in most developed countries now. my biggest, and very conservative, trading account used to be money I had in the bank … but bank accounts, and bonds, have been a non-starter for a couple of years now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes. They are squeezing my mom right out of her house soon. She is OK, she owns it but taxes are high and heading up all the time, food etc. she is on fixed income. They really suck. (but the SP is up)

  • ZigZag

    The monthly bbs on corn are extremely pinched

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Time Bandit

    I’m running a 4 Hour Chart on Corn and trying to work a retracement from the March 31st Drop. I have a pretty tight leash on it. This is a relatively short term trade.

  • Time Bandit

    Ya but she can buy a 52 Inch HD TV real cheap. It’s been this way for years now. Things we need to survive are expensive and things we really don’t need are dirt cheap.

  • nyse

    Never, never, NEVER ease up on that snarkiness, Mole. Never – you hear me!?!?!?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    11 comments – wow – time to roll it up?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love trading futures. The only problem with corn and soybean contracts is liquidity – you can get screwed on the b/a. So be stingy and stick to your limit – if you miss a campaign then so be it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe – love that one.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot some size 4.14 zone.

  • Billabong

    I liked the idea behind your comments in the post …. bull quiet. I was thinking a similar vein last week on the lack of volatility.

  • BKXtoZERO

    many readers…………

  • Billabong

    LOD – CL/YM/ES

  • Round we go

    oil headed to 35 handle, then 30 then20

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited in 4.30’s …still looking for 3 handles.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …so those banks have lost their fundamental social compact and purpose. What sort of business have they then become?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Agents of the State.
    ..but I speculate.
    😉

  • Time Bandit

    Added to Futures Learning Curve (in particular Grains and Soy).

    Use GTC Stop orders instead good for the Day. Apparently Day orders cancel at 2:30 PM EDT which is no big deal. But when I tried to put a replacement Stop order in it was rejected because no new orders are accepted in these Futures while Market is on Break? I’ll put in a new Stop Loss Order when they re-open at 8 PM EDT.

    As “Roseanne Roseannadanna” used to say “there’s always sometin”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlQ9iOir6j8

  • BKXtoZERO

    Flashback to the top. Mole and most here were bullish. I was loading up on TVIX in the high 5 area. At some point you just need to hold some. No one is good enough to get THE top or even a local peak perfectly. Then you miss your chance.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve found the erosion is really just too insidious for my own nervous system. This is really like a hunt-down. We pretty much have to stay rested, aggressive, paranoid, puckered for when the game gets into optimized cross-hairs… and willing to exit altogether when bear market conditions don’t add up quickly enough to support holding TVIX.

  • Round we go
  • BKXtoZERO

    hard to be perfect 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…but keep stretching for it.

  • Roebear

    I do 90% of port in options, sometimes 100%, I haven’t had a down year since 02.
    Interested in anything Mole has to say about options. But I am also 90% retired now.

  • Billabong

    It could. A retest of the low could be in order or a close encounter with the low. I will start with the support at 30 and keep my SL close. CL could also over shoot the low and go to $20 on MOMO. Just have to keep trading current price. We also have Iran … “I’m back”.

  • Billabong

    First financial sell signal going into EOD … JPM. Could be a red herring tied to Panama Papers.

  • Time Bandit

    Ah Ha! Orders can be submitted during “Pre Open” (In EDT) 9:00 to 9:30 AM 3:30 to 5:00 PM and 5:45 to 8:00 PM. This almost makes sense now. 🙂

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading-hours.html

  • Time Bandit

    Haven’t done Financials in a long time.

    But SCO is up almost $9 again today. 🙂

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    So 5% trading and 5% drinkin

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why? I will never understand why retail is unwilling/unable to trade the tape higher and invariably starts thinking bullish when it’s time for a correction.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll take a shot.

    Human psyche is short term based. So range trades are the norm for their bias thinking. Range traders don’t want to be a bag holder, and are unwilling (or incapable) to imagine higher trend moves.

    So in conclusion look at the ’98 Asian crash. Imagination or stops, could have prevented a lot of pain, from bearish Bias. Anecdotal I know, but still practical.

    http://imagehost.vendio.com/a/905774/view/Aug820111998After.png

  • Round we go

    you saying it not time for a correction? you forget just a month ago the market was on the cliff edge. all solved cus japan and euro is in nirp, china using up all its reserves and the US not hiking rates. that is going to get you to all time high after a record setting bear rally? is in worse situation then dec. you also got dollar at inflection point.

  • Round we go

    did you not sell your shorts before I did in Jan? who got off the trend first then?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’d have to research it.
    but I can say for certain, Feb 16th move up was my signal.
    ‘no mo shorts’.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02855803153

  • Round we go

    you did not sell your shorts in feb. you said you sold in Jan. you don’t post your buys not sells but I asked you cus you were posting bullish. anyhow unless you post your buys and sells in real time like time bandit does then your calls and your judgement of other traders is not worth much.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Your comment is accusatory & offensive.
    I wish you well in your adventures.

  • Round we go

    sorry gerb, but I am reacting to what I view as you being cocky. I also think the market is in bullshit mode as it often does. if you dont recognize a hollow market with no participants and CB’s without ammo then good luck in your adventures. shit is going to get real in this election year.

  • Round we go
  • Round we go

    also you know I am longterm short now all in levered up to my max at 2x. so why you messing with me about “thinking bullish when it’s time for a correction'”. my stop is 2150spx.

  • Round we go

    see mole I am trying to double your post count.

    by the way the Japanese are quite logical and will lead the way.

  • Billabong

    That was my buy signal also, but I was tied up with PM, miners and a few others.

  • BKXtoZERO

    My personal theory: Most distrust the market and know it is manipulated. They sit watching rallies they view as fake and then eventually they think, ok, “they” can keep this up forever, so I’ll buy…

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Not doing much now. Just playing small ball here w equities and going short on overboughts on 30/60 min + going long on oversolds that end up south of lower BB on 60 min time frame. All my positions have been only 1-2 day holds, most 1 day.

    Right now, only have a small NUGT short that looking to hold for a bit and have a pretty wide stop.

  • mugabe

    I’ve seen trend traders bullish in certain sectors – discretionary, utilities and more recently tech.

  • mugabe

    yen just hit a 52-week high

  • mugabe

    long term gold miners leveraged etf stat

    http://stocktwits.com/home#people-and-stocks:293819

  • Mark Shinnick

    Re-entered size long in 4.30’s for ON.

  • Time Bandit

    Mornin Folks,

    Another day in the “hood”. No change in positions except for adding a Short position in /ZL before this mornings break.

  • ridingwaves

    oil just bounced but I think it could drain to 36-36.40, fight for which direction could happen there….

    bi-polar market right now…

  • Roebear

    CandleSEU,
    I wish, I meant I only trade 10% of port, of the 90% left half is annuity now and of the rest (45%) about 1/3 MF, 1/3 Bonds and 1/3 well, let’s say fixed assets and that ratio fluctuates about every 3 months based on my long term. So far I’ve spent way too much time watching the markets, I was aiming for 10% markets 90% fun with my time too, but it’s been cold, warmer weather and more diversions soon…I’ll get back in balance.