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Scalpomania
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Scalpomania

by The MoleAugust 11, 2009

3:10pm EDT: After missing the early morning drop I have been mostly watching and scalping the tape today:

Both trades you see are geronimo entries/exits – worked like a charm – it’s like taking candy from a baby ๐Ÿ™‚

As you can see we’re at VWAP right now and I expect the usual head fakes both ways before they pick a direction for the close. I think a bit more upside is a definite possibility although on a short term basis we are a bit overbought. This is make or break time for the bears – if we want to see 980 or lower the ES VWAP should hold. If we bust higher into the close it could spell the end of this retracement.

Emphasis on could – we could test 1000 on the SPX again and then drop into the lower 980s. As I said – it’s a tough call right now and I would recommend you only hold puts you can afford to lose.

3:23pm EDT: This is for Keirsten ๐Ÿ™‚

It’s time we pimp this place up a bit – whadda ya say, playaz?

3:30pm EDT: Alright, it’s 30 minutes to the close, we are at VWAP, we’ve got half a pack of cigarettes, a tank full of gas, it’s dark and we’re wearing sunglasses.

Hit it!

3:47pm EDT: Since nobody is posting today I’m not going to waste my time on an EOD wrap up. See you guys tomorrow.

4:11pm EDT: Seems like everyone has moved over to the Slope for some reason. Maybe it’s time for Mole to take a vacation. Subscribers: you know where to reach me.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • springheel_jack

    TAKE 4: WTF is wrong with Disqus?

    For anyone who didn't see it at SOH, here's VirginiaJim's QQQQ chart from earlier:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Here's the corresponding bear wedge on the SPX:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Here's the monster bull wedge on the Vix:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Lots of pressure building. The Vix pattern could go another couple of weeks IMO. We might just chop about until then.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Lets take this puppy down into the close.

  • Iguanadon

    Yawn into the close?

  • springheel_jack

    TAKE 11: WTF is wrong with Disqus?

    For anyone who didn't see it at SOH, here's VirginiaJim's QQQQ chart from earlier:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Here's the corresponding bear wedge on the SPX:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Here's the monster bull wedge on the Vix:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Lots of pressure building. The Vix pattern could go another couple of weeks IMO. We might just chop about until then.

  • springheel_jack

    Disqus is not having a good day for me.

  • springheel_jack

    TAKE 12: WTF is wrong with Disqus?

    For anyone who didn't see it at SOH, here's VirginiaJim's QQQQ chart from earlier:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Here's the corresponding bear wedge on the SPX:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Here's the monster bull wedge on the Vix:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    Lots of pressure building. The Vix pattern could go another couple of weeks IMO. We might just chop about until then.

  • molecool

    Lemme look…

  • marketmaker

    An interesting chart of insider selling:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/im

    AMZN and MSFT are near the top.

  • Bankrupt

    fasten your seatbelts, the rocket is ready to launch

  • lester

    thought you were a bear

  • Niktus

    “Page cannot be found”

  • springheel_jack

    I tried 12 times. LOL.

    So it wasn't Disqus at all. Good.

    Duly noted, though I don't know why it didn't allow the first one.

  • thelefteyeguy

    thanks SHJ…prob hard to post then to make the charts ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • charles_smith

    If this pig actually declines in the last 15 minutes then we can safely assume GSachs is finally finished building their short position.

  • Bankrupt

    I put my bear costume into the drawer. Long term I am a bear though…

  • TheMacroEconomist

    But we could get a VIX stretch signal or 2 before a real breakout.

    Anyway, green candle is good to see there.

  • lester

    today is the day (maybe)

  • annamall

    I think this is another head fake and we fall lhe last few minutes. CRASH BABY CRASH! Heheheh

  • marketmaker
  • Kemal_1

    Before the close update:

    The b countermove took longer than expected, the c part of wave 3 has not yet started, but is about to begin.

    Most of the c part probably will end up being a gap down early tomorrow. I have two targets at the moment:

    either 987 or 984. I believe the second one is the more likely one.

    Will post a chart after the close.

  • annamall

    Kemal I will be happy with either one, but prefer 984 if you can muster it ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • marketmaker

    Ok, one more time:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/im… Transactions.jpg

  • fuw

    I vote up. I forced myself to go long today.
    Strange TRIN action today though. It has been trending up – flat all day and is still far into bearish territory.

    And thanks for the small updates on the Zero Mole. I for one really appreciates them.

  • ropey

    what a total fucking chopfest – i'm out till this gets resolved properly, they are propping this up against very negative breadth – sucks big time.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    different analysis, same level. 984-986 es. i do see it as a minimum objective, though.

  • marketmaker

    Ok, go to this site:http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

    Scroll down to where it says:

    “Take a look I think you will find some interesting names.”

    That's where I originally found it.

  • springheel_jack

    Definitely took longer. LOL.

  • Kemal_1

    Sure, will do what I can. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Eur/USD will likely NOT reach 1.40 (I posted that yesterday). The bottom might be in (around 1.41). I would not short anymore EUR/USD.

    Next stop will be 1.49.

  • ropey

    that's better, held on just long enough lol

  • St Deluise

    kemal, thank you for the update. appreciated greatly!

  • Kemal_1

    Thanks. Yes, could very well be somewhat lower. I mentioned conservative targets.

    I cannot be in front of the screen tomorrow, so people here have to find the bottom by themselves.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Just confirming that you did mean 1.4900 ?

  • springheel_jack

    Ah, you don't think then then we have put in an important interim bottom on USD.

  • ScubaSteve

    Great call, especially working on GS. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • onorio

    Hey Kemal, one question…

    You`re counting that ED in SXP, what do you think of SPY?

    Im looking for a 984 as the end of a C wave, should be followed by a X and another ABC…this matches with your count of a retrace of this move to 1012 followed by a sharp move to 960 area.

  • molecool

    Yes, 1.41 is what I am looking at as well.

  • ropey

    Nasty nasty close, all the fun in last 3 mins blargh…..

  • MJSgl

    Good stuff, Kemal. Thanks!

  • onorio

    Hey A, gonna hold your puts? My holding mine to tomorrow! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • rhae

    Scalps for sure… watching SPY 1m , know some super scalpers… they usually bail just before a major critical line tagged… they don't care much about line tests… they are already long gone… seems so today… I am not a scalper but fun watching them

  • Keirsten

    Ropey- I know Anna and I have played on SOH today, but I hate to see you talking to yourself! ๐Ÿ˜›

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Big negative TICKs there – but with some price momentum. Mole's Zero Lite captured this perfectly.

    I got the puts side off, straddle is set, delta neutral now at the close.

    Let's see some volatility tomorrow!!!

  • onorio

    Did i just see selling at EOD?

    WOW!

  • string01

    Hit to 2-4 line from the final (5th) wave up and turned nicely.

  • lester

    good call, still got your Sep Puts?

  • http://twitter.com/g0zer g0zer

    days like these give me a fukn headache. this is a shakedown like no other.

  • marketmaker

    ?????????

    zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/Insider Transactions.jpg

  • playtowin

    thanks for your update. Its the wave 3 part that is confusing me when you are talking about an abc move. Do you mean wave 3 or do you mean a a 3 wave move. If it was a wave 3 it would be 5 waves and not an abc. Most likely me being stupid by not understanding you but hopefully your chart will clear it up for me.
    Interesting re euro – I had thought it possible the top was in for the euro and we would only see a 3 wave bounce here but I respect that the dollar may need a lower low and the euro a higher high.

  • molecool

    NO – it WAS disqus – wasn't me. You are screwing up your account doing that. I'm not going to keep unspamming you all the time mate. So I suggest you contact me next time you post something that doesn't show up. The more you repost the same thing the more disqus is going to flag you as a spammer.

  • lester

    do you really think down in the AM with tomorrow being a Fed day?

  • Kemal_1

    Exactly. 1.49. And that is not the final target. The final one is around 1.50 – 1.52.

    I am looking for a VERY significant rally in commodities and commodity stocks. This group will lead the next rally higher. That's why I am so confident that the top is not yet in for the SPX.

  • steveo77

    Alternation….I bearly like it.

  • rhae

    Sometimes big money has a pre-existing order to sell the bell… That way no one can dink with their order. Then they keep their fingers crossed next day… Maybe not, it's not their money… IRA 401 (201) etc. lol

  • Kemal_1

    Correct, USD has not yet bottomed on IM basis.

  • steveo77

    No chop on the credit spreads….thanks for the trade methodology yesterday

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    OK, have to confess – my trading today was totally unacceptable – stepped in bad trade pre market without even looking at the charts,
    at the end – managed to trade my way out, well out, closed every single other position from today at profit, but…this is inexcusable, that first trade!
    I will not be able to enjoy money I made today ๐Ÿ™

  • rhae

    sometimes you can see it on L-2 or times and sale… But I don't don't trust those … It could be as simple as some MM just replenishing his War Chest

  • Kemal_1

    You might not have gotten the whole story. The SPX is in a leading diagonal (LD) down. This was confirmed today. In a LD all 5 waves are of abc shape. I will post a chart later.

    SPY target? I just watch SPX and take whatever they give me in the SPY, depends on the MMs.

  • fuw

    S&P now got the first cross of the daily ema2 and ema5 since July 10th.

  • Iguanadon

    Send the money to Iggy, Raleigh NC. I'll enjoy it for you.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    well i was up big in my short scalps earlier today and did take some profit. Then I think I overtraded and went into a few more short scalps throughout the day which ended the wrong way, and the tape looked like it was going to ramp up again into the close so i closed them out, only for it to reverse itself. Lost the profits and a little bit more (about 3%). Living to trade another day for the big kill. Till then, Im outta here, get some rest my fellow traders, for tomorrow is a new day.

  • charles_smith

    There you have it–forces of evil (in this case I mean GS et al., not Mole) are officially short. Going long is betting against the Empire at this point. Last week was all about distributing shares to retail rubes and specs who fell for the “bust-out to new highs” propaganda. No doubt we'll get some buy-on-the-dips backfilling and then the trapdoor will spring open when the fewest possible traders expect it.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    I suspect overnight and international traders of US indices will have an entertaining time of it. Trade well and share the war stories (tear). Maybe I'll set my alarm.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Thing is, I saw the trap door pop open a bit at 3:50 so put on the hedge. I had hoped to avoid the theta burn overnight, but ce la vie.

    Tomorrow we got Trade Balance at 8:29, crude inventories at 10:30, and the 10-year T-note auction at 1PM all before FOMC. Real price moves start after FOMC, imo.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole looks like you're losing your mojo – the beauties from this blog are migrating over to elsewhere….

    suggestion: watch austin powers and get some inspiration – LOL

  • Anonymous

    Hi Mole here Amsterdam, the Netherlands speaking, just found you a week ago, donot quit on me now please. I cannot and dare not comment in your postings what can I say, except that I think we reached some sort of a top in the DOW, won’t help you with spx though. Anyway Dow goes lower me thinks 9120, at least I put my bet on that.
    But please keep up the good work.
    Greets Angela

  • Kemal_1

    The 'tape' says so.

    But after the Fed announcement, the vicious rally will start. Target may be a little lower than 1012. It depends where tomorrow's low is. Basically, take the distance between that low and the recent 1018 peak and calculate 78.6%. The latter number is the distance of the expected sharp rally.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Long 1 NQ from 1594.25; Added some cheap IWM & SPY Aug calls in AH dip right after the close.

  • Offtimer

    You and I are the only believers for tomrrow. Get the truck.

  • Keirsten

    We were just cheering them up because Bovine chased all the girls away over there. We are still Mole's girls. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    b4 I go for cheap scotch – I think SPX 1040 target is out of the questions, but we will set new high tomorrow and it is down the hill from there…for 2 weeks into OPX

  • Eris

    I was guilty of chasing the tapes today too. The Zero helped somewhat and I did start the day with short ES from 1010 so I did OK but gave some profits back. Oh well.

  • dollar

    When was the last time the major indices got 2 days in a row of lower lows and lower highs?

  • Keirsten

    Are you still short oil going into tomorrow's inventory report?

  • TomHam

    I still “love 'ya” Mole !

    Anyway, the last 15 minute sell off was impressive. . . an “indication of tomorrow” me thinks.
    My read of wave action (daily bars) would lead me to think we're bouncing off some overhead resistance at the (end) of a 5th wave run up.
    Seeing some volume (not required) coming into this market on a healthy down turn would be a nice confirmation.
    We won't have long to wait. ๐Ÿ™‚
    Good Trading all. Press On.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    can Iggy sign for it?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Won't that move the entire market up?

    If I understand your other posts correctly too, then in your opinion ES 980 or so is how far this retracement goes. After that the next leg up starts.. essentially powered by the commodities..

    EUR/USD going to 1.49 – 1.50 will really ignite the commodities… I agree with you there. That should also move the equities up by another 15 to 20% IMO.

    ________________________________

  • tsmith1238

    In reference to Kemal's analysis: All the sharp people on this board, keep a lookout on when the bottom hit and report to the board quickly. Okay? ๐Ÿ™‚ Thanks.

  • lester

    the vicious rally could go to 1090 before OPEX. This two day of pullback could be it. I do have a 10% Put position that I held overnite.

  • Keirsten

    You just know they were getting long before the final March dip too.

  • Offtimer

    In the AM at least and then a lot lower if your a big rat. Ropey and I were discussing this move 7-8 days ago when we broke 1000 and the voting began to see what the interim high wolud be.

  • tsmith1238

    In reference to Kemal's analysis: All the sharp people on this board, keep a lookout on when the bottom hit and report to the board quickly. Okay? ๐Ÿ™‚ Thanks.

  • MikeT

    Yeah but you have Kemal posting here now…..that makes up for many.

  • lester

    how do you play commodies? Ever use DBC?

  • Anonymous

    Hi Mole, here Amsterdam, The Netherlands talking:-)) Just found you recently so donot quit on me now.
    Sadly cannot help you with intelligent ideas about spx, I follow mostly the DOW after you guys are opened, our miserable AEX is like a puppet on a string with the DOW.
    Dow though has reached some sort of top. My bet it goes to 9120 ca, at least I am betting on that one.
    SPX I follow before you open, no not ES, but SPX continuously to be seen on this one I hope,
    greets BYS

  • lester

    I will post when I go short; 10% short overnite watching all the wizards of smart here

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    No. Check my comments posted earlier today when I exited the trade. Left tons on the table, but a profitable series of trades despite the mismanagement.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    No, this is a corrective wave pattern!

    We're gonna need to consolidate to charge 1010-1020 again. There are so many TA lines that interesect there – plus the whole 1000 psychological thing.

  • http://www.slopeofhope.com Tim Knight

    4:11pm EDT: Seems like everyone has moved over to the Slope for some reason

    Don't kid yourself. My traffic is down 20% from 2 weeks ago, and the same eight folks frantically post comments.

  • steveo77

    From a warrior trading point of view, the EOD selloff combined with a gap down will scare bulls and embolden bears.

    Picked up 50 puts QQQQ on the 7th, and today was my birthday. Maybe I buy that underwater scooter I been talking about for years.

  • tsmith1238

    I think kemal said he will be out tomorrow and will not be posting unfortunately. So, unless we want to be fry rats, we better keep a good lookout. All comments welcome. ๐Ÿ™‚ It has weird lately, at least recently. Watch out.

  • LegendC

    So you had 10 ppl then?

  • Keirsten

    This tape has been really tough to manage if you're shorting, no doubt. I almost covered at the VWAP this afternoon and just held steady. But for the past month I've been extremely jumpy on my profits too.

  • LegendC

    Precisely why I expect a rally soon.

  • lester

    even if you got long in mid_Feb, looks pretty good now

  • annamall

    Mole we are here, we are just scooting around for a change, but your our leader, for sure. We love Tim too, but the angels are called Evil's for a reason ๐Ÿ˜‰
    Please don't leave we need you Herr Mole

  • lester

    dittos for me. chased the tape one time too many.

  • charles_smith

    Dang, Mole, I usually post like once a week and did triple duty today. We're working hard here too….

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Sorry, I disagree. They already cleared out all the puts and for the next two weeks they'll work on making the calls just as worthless. Augie expiration may go out between 94-95 SPY referenced.

  • onorio

    I understand you point, and the LD in SPX is clear but in SPY looks something diferent…better focus on SPX, since is more clear.

    Tks Kemal!

  • harveydent

    holding FAZ overnight from $27.50
    fingers crossed for morning Redness in the markets

  • annamall

    Oh I hope you ended up for the day Candle! I know you were kicking butt earlier!
    We have all done the over trading (especially me) Now that i am heavy into FX, I can't screw up the trades in Equities as much. ๐Ÿ™‚ Not enough time.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Oops. That was DavidDT.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Sorry, I disagree. They already cleared out all the puts and for the next two weeks they'll work on making the calls just as worthless. Augie expiration may go out between 94-95 SPY referenced.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Must be if your Friday avatar is up and running before the close on Tuesday.

  • ropey

    Yes credit spreads doing just fine. I was just daytrading with another part of my portfolio – bloody annoying lol i saw the breadth and it should of clicked they were going to nuke it but those cheeky little pops above the 100 had me scratching my head at the close…2 mins later, wham super dump..

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Mole was probably referring to comments. All the blog pimps have resumed their ventures on the slope, since mole has been cracking down.

    And yes traffic down 15% here too. A lot larger % than that probably got blown out during the past month, as well as last few weeks of summer accounting for traders being mia. Things should be back in business come September.

    Thanks to both of you for daily excellent content.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Sorry Mole, at 3:47PM I was setting up to get a trade off. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    I got another 20 or so boxes still to install Microsoft's patch fest on. Will be back later tonight with some more FOMC sentiment stuff.

  • nsysblh

    Now if we can just get the market down 20% from two weeks ago, we'd be set.

    Honestly, its probably because its summer now…not much participation this time of year.

  • molecool

    Traffic has been dying here lately. I spent most of my Sunday on the weekend forecast and saw a pitiful comment count compared with the old days – really not worth the time if nobody sees it. I watched this trend for a while now and considering closing down the free portion of the site to focus exclusively on my subs.

  • onorio

    Dont go on vacations now Mole! P3 almost there, u must guide us! ๐Ÿ˜€

    You deserve some vacations, and we will be here waiting for you, as always.

  • molecool

    It takes a lot out of you to constantly post. And it's very disappointing to see everyone having moved on to a different blog (not that I have a problem with the Slope) when you had a rough night (couldn't sleep) and decided to sleep in.

    And before anyone starts criticizing I encourage you to produce the mountain of work I have on a daily basis during the past few months (which were tough) and see traffic go to shit. If people disappear it's one thing – if I see them move on to other blogs I must question the quality of my work. Perhaps I need a vacation to recharge my batteries as obviously my posts are not compelling enough anymore for people to comment here.

  • dust13

    Question to Elliot wavers… Is it time to start nibbling on some leap puts? Just in case Primary 3 has arrived? After last few months I am hesitant to short anything, which tells me the time is near

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think people are not on the blogs because they get better info from CNBC lol

  • nsysblh

    Cool, I'm in Raleigh too, Iggy. We can split it.

  • a_non

    Mole – Any update on moving any of the systems to C2, especially Geronimo? I love the concept, cant sit around and execute quickly enough, even with thinkmobile. Just think about it.

  • Keirsten

    No you don't! If anything you have done an exceedingly good job of trying to get us all through this ugly tape. It's summer and most of the bears are beaten and bruised. Those of us who have been with you since the beginning are forever grateful for everything you do 240 trading days a year, plus weekends- give or take a holiday in there. We've got our game on now, time to apply a can of WA to this tape, not a time to give up. We're ::this:: close now. We love you Mole.

  • TonyMontana

    I'm with you Harvey…..I'm holding on to FAZ Aug 27 calls going into tomorrow.

    If all goes well, my short term targets on FAZ are 32.5 and then 35

  • onorio

    Pretcher said we`re topping, he predicted march lows one week before so….im looking for more upside but in a longer term i supose grabing some puts will not be a bad idea.

  • ACJ

    Most “traders” have gone home with their tail's between their legs, it's nothing specific to your site Mole.

  • tsmith1238

    Mole – I am new to this board. Just hopped on recently. I read everyone of your articles since I hopped on. Although you are definitely entitle to a vacation for a job well done, it will be a shame to see it stops. JMHO.

  • tsmith1238

    And I have to say. This is a good site. One of the better one I have seen so far.

  • Kemal_1

    No, sorry. I did not express myself clearly.

    The strong decline coming off the LD and the sharp rally should be over by Opex, August 21. Don't know the exact target yet. 950?

    After that the rally will continue to around 1070 – 1080. Commodities and financials will be the leaders.

  • molecool

    Nope – C2 takes too much out our profit margin – we would have to raise the prices by 30%.

  • lester

    I subscribe to a bullish blog also, and their volume of posts is waaay down. I think everybody has given up.

  • molecool

    Ahem – I see many regulars disappear and start posting on other blogs. Nothing to do with the summer.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For FAZ to get to $35, XLF has to get to $12.7 (Yes, I know FAZ is based off of RIFIN… but XLF & RIFIN go hand in hand for most part). 12.7 is 9% down… If financials go down 9%, expect SPX to go down 5% at least to 950.. is that your SPX target?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Mole – one thing assured – I am no going to no SOH
    I'll stay here and be abused for as long as I can (J/K – of course I am moving…)

  • Keirsten

    I might have to come up with something new for Friday. LOL

  • molecool

    Yeah possible – I'm considering a vacation actually. A few days off might be fun.

    For the record – my analysis has been pretty spot on lately – so it must be the delivery or perhaps people are just bored of this place.

  • Bankrupt

    mole, be cool.

    If you need, you take your time off, of course. However, if you want people to stay here, please don't behave childish. I know it was tough months, it was for me too. Now let's try to stay positive, the last thing we need now is to get more nervous and lose our patience.

    I respect you a lot for all the effort you put in and if you have trouble with your sleeping you probably need to back off in any case.

    All the good…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ACJ – if “most traders” would carefully read what Mole writes – there would be no reason to have tails between their legs (as oppose to …whatever whoever has)
    ๐Ÿ™‚
    I wish I could read ๐Ÿ™

  • ACJ

    YOUR blog is one of my favorites, and I'm not going anywhere unless you shut down. I rarely post, FWIW. But if you need backpats and attaboys, I'm right here for you. Most blogs are a bunch of scrotes', this one rocks!

  • molecool

    Wasn't talking about you, David. But thanks – again, the Slope is a fine place and if you have to move on I'm happy to see you guys over there.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yup
    Dykstra was just on – he'll take care of your investments

  • pricey

    Mole, I think alot of people visit this site and never comment. Market is downright hard to decipher right now. Your updates are not being done in vain. They are intelligent and give insight into what could be in store, also give warning to pitfalls to avoid. I really appreciate all your hard work and would be very disappointed to see you give up on us.

  • molecool

    Not about backpats or attaboys – I get enough of those. But I also realize that I might have gotten to the point where the quality has been suffering. Obviously there's a reason people are moving on. Again, a vacation might be invigorating.

  • TonyMontana

    Indeed, as 950-960 on the SPX would mark the neck line of the inverted H&S pattern that Brinkley brought to our attention the last couple of weeks.

  • molecool

    Everyone has given up after a 50% rally over 5 months with barely any pullbacks?

    Fuck, those bulls are pussies!

  • amokta

    still struggling with buying puts – is it worth the bother – if i spent $8k on long expiration leap buy puts and s&p went to say 777, how much would i make – gives me an indicator if its worth it or not

    also those 'holding faz' – do you mean holding actual faz shares or 'puts/calls/shorts' on faz (as holding faz direct seems futile, as generaly trends down unless markets really fallng?)

  • molecool

    Easy now BigHouse – my hand is hovering over the block button…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    to be exact – he did not predict lows (so did not a lot of people who claim they did)
    what he said (and Mole criticized me for not admiring Bob) was:
    “We advised our clients to ease on short positions”
    More than that – when asked – “is it time to go long”, he answered:
    NO, but easy money has been made on a short side and and it is too late to go short”
    bob is a great trader, but he is no God

  • gusrock1414

    This site rocks. Everyone has had their ass handed to them for five months. I needed a break from trading myself. The quality of the work is not in question and I maintain its one of the best around. My only complaint is to take a bigger picture sometimes like TK's video from last night. You have so many options for wave counts in such small time frames, you never realize which one actually is occuring til its past. Thank you for allowing me to post, Sire.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just say that you are recruiting new readers for Mole

  • TonyMontana

    Hey Mole,

    Remember that you started at the SOH and then we all followed you when you started your own blog, the way I see it, you stole some of TK's followers (me included) ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Unfortunately I don't have the time to post meaningful comments, due to a full time job and a lack of TA expertise, but I read your blog many times during the day.

    Thanks for all your hard work!

    p.s. If you want me to, I can go over to the Slope and tell TK to “Say Hallo to my Little Frend”

  • lester

    my advice, don't mess with FAZ/FAS options. Nearly wiped me out. Like crack on top of caffeine

  • lester

    they are idiots in general, only up 3% YDT.

  • ACJ

    I PERSONALLY feel your quality is fine. I love the humor intertwined with the presentation. But know that everyone suffers from burnout, maybe you need a vacation or break. If so hand off the baton to a high ranking rat and take a break.

  • ACJ

    we call FAZ/FAS options “Speedballin”

  • Tronacate

    Sad truth there……and I keep going back to the drug…….i need an FAZ shock collar…..whenever I pull up the chart….ZAP

  • arak0

    Mo-lester … are you still trading? I hope for your sake that you haven't blown up your account again. You might stand a better chance running a bank with access to unlimited TARP funds.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    don't underestimate the power of 3 FOMC waves – first, opposite and correct one.
    Again – you disagree only for “new high” tomorrow, but we agree on “down part”
    the ONLY reason why I'd love to see new highs tomorrow is completion of proper wave count (D-wave)
    otherwise – I am happy short as it is ๐Ÿ™‚

  • molecool

    Jeezzes… I did more being bearish! LOL

  • ACJ

    hell, everyone has been shorting and covering the whole way up, that's the problem…….

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It will be some real fun if the iH&S turns out the way H&S turned out in early July

    ________________________________

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I like your analysis.. Your comment about closing short positions and possibly leaving 30% on the table prompted me to close my all the remaining short positions. Actually your comment prompted me to take a closer look at the charts and then I saw a potential intra-day double bottom.

    Before that I was believing that today was a trend-down day.. So, your comments saved me quite a bit of coin. Thanks. Keep the good stuff coming.

    ________________________________

  • lester

    I get Slope and Sit On Hands confused all the time in posts. Have to re-read the posts for context.

  • onorio

    Never question your work Mole, you do a great work everyday and have one of the best blogs (the best for me).

    And most important you`ve build a community here, a place where people help each other and learn with each other, i`ve feel at home in your blog and im proud of belong to this community.

  • amokta

    cheers – so folks are holding actual faz shares – still risky in that for a small stake its hardly worth it unless greater than 30% swing tocover costs etc. and to put large amounts into faz makes no sense as its not really an 'asset' – either way is lose situation?

  • annamall

    I must concur with Keirsten Mole, we all have been beaten to pieces and sometimes to clear the cobwebs you stray like a feral cat does, but always they come back home (or least most of the time)
    Your site is kickass and you know this you too have been whipped around this rigged up game and it's very disheartening to keep losing $.
    I know Keirsten and I are your Angels, pitbulls, and friends. We are this close Mole to your wave count, DON'T LEAVE NOW!!!

  • harveydent

    yeap holding FAZ shares – only 100 though.

  • annamall

    My position is we have at least a short term trend change, I said it this morning and all day long. We will be lucky to get a 970 retracment. Maybe 950 area, then probably rip for that last retail trader pile in (which is shorter than the institutional wave) then the elevetor DOWN.
    For the short term very bullish on the USD, my trade is short EUR/USD
    Now let's crash tomorrow. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • a_non

    Jesus, what a ripoff.

  • Tronacate

    Ok……I'm part Cherokee so I signed up for the Geronimo. Who has some Indian in them?……..want some?

  • LegendC

    The chop decay on these are horrible and the puts are expensive because this bias is alredy built it. Also, realize the IV factored into the options on these makes it pretty bad to trade them. I can make almost as much money trading SPY or XLF options as FASFAZ options and have a much nicer spread.

  • dollar

    What she said: we're very close now – don't quit!
    I've looked around a fair amount and your blog is the best, not only the work that you do, but also the caliber of posters you attract, so “Illegitimi non carborundum!”

    Also, not that my posts are so great but they've been disappearing lately so I've haven't tried as often. I like to put links after quotes so people can verify sources and think for themselves. It seems Disqus doesn't like links always…

  • Metalman

    164 comments is not active enough?

  • Woolly Llama

    People are simply sick of the bull's shit and a lot of ppl (your target audience) have withdrawn from the market until the fall when the next down leg begins.

  • dollar

    A little humor: Penn and Teller on Taxes

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ec_s0X-M5Q&feat

  • Woolly Llama

    You need another partner like back when you had Berk…speaking of, how's the chap?

  • Woolly Llama

    You need another partner like back when you had Berk…speaking of, how's the chap?

  • Bys

    Grrh got some trouble posting this, had to submit etc now you have it twice sorry folks:-(

  • mrclam

    Aside from being complete mental masturbation, read this blog for the last three days and read how many people have picked up puts, is that really clearing out all the puts?????

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Back in Feb & Mar, I did some analysis and found that unless you are looking for a multi-day trend move, doing options on SKF will give you a better percentage gain than doing options on FAZ.

    The only scenario in which FAZ options work out better than SKF are if you buy far OTM options on FAZ…. in which case you are looking for a big directional move… which is hard to come by these days, at least on the bearish side.

  • lester

    the bullish blog just switched to intermediate bear today, but they never short. For them that just means exit longs.

  • springheel_jack

    Don't get discouraged Mole. This really is a great blog.

    I think a lot of people are on holiday which has dropped traffic everywhere.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    You're still #1 in my heart Mole

    (no homo)

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    I am here and I am a subscriber and a full time trader. I am always refreshing my page to read the latest from certain posters that I admire like Keirsten, David ,Fuji and of course Anna among others. I think you have a number of people posting on here that matter and its not a numbers game but definately more about quality. I always look forward to the “new post” logo in the comments section to hear what you are thinking next. I have been at this game for 15yrs and I write my own newsletter for investors and clients and I can tell you that this place is special in many ways. Just my opinion and I hope you agree with it Mole. Cheers!!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    maybe you should have spread the position. I think if you put it into a strangle you can make some serious deniero on both sides of the tape if you play fas/faz right

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    faz puts spread with fas puts seems like it would work well, especially OTM and front month. killer volatility but thats what a spread like that thrives on.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Who? Who is buying august? Not market-makers or professionals – they're loading up on September and further out months. Go figure out the point that makes the most augie options worthless and you'll see its quite a bit lower than here. Just my opinion, but I don't think the “bounce” or slightly higher high comes until after expiration. Either that, or its only an hour long.

  • Scrillhog

    I'm one of the bears that hasn't given up, yet I've been silent mostly because I've been mainly in cash lately. Today was really frustrating for me and it was completely mental. I closed out 2 positions way too early – 1 flat and the other for a .5 loss… My entries were correct, and I screwed myself out of a good chunk of $$ because I got spooked and started second guessing myself. Looks like I need to reflect on wtf I was doing today. Best trade I've had in the past few days was a gold short I took on /YG at 965.. Still holding that.

    Playing around with Fib fans, here's a few interesting charts:

    SPX – Fan line indicates the 1012 area could be a top.

    http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/955/spxa.png

    DJI – Fan line from the 1975 lows… Look at where the 2009 lows bounce off.

    http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/2990/djiy.png

  • mrclam

    Honestly mole, I used to post a lot more, but nowadays I just read.
    1) I don't have very good charts of my own to contribute
    2) There is no sense in posting plain mental masturbation that doesn't add to any analysis.

    Personally, I've actually tried staying away from blogs aside from reading the comments of a few traders, and to keep a big overall picture of what's going on. I find that reading comments here and on other blogs can distract you from your own analysis, especially when the majority of commenters aren't really trading the tape, and basically shorting at every possible opportunity and calling every bit of upside manipulation by GS. Again, I'm new to trading, but there is no excuse for missing a 50% rally just because you are fundamentally rooted in the downside. Fundamentally, I'm with you all, but I was fundamentally bearish as early as 2005 as well, you have to trade what's in front of you, and most posters simply will not do that. Anyways, your work is appreciated mole, and even if people aren't commenting, I am sure they are still reading.

  • lester

    Actually my FAZ screw-up was back in March. I had some FAZ 85 Calls
    thhat expired worthless. I am only doing SPY now.

  • vision_invisible

    The FED Is JPM is the FED. Who is a controlling member bank of the Fed System? JPM. Who owns the FED? The member banks. JPM owns 33% of the NY Fed, and the Fed is made up of its member banks, one of which is JPM.

    Short almost anything else. JPM will never ever see the light of day, I agree the stock can fall (with the market), but shorting JPM is shorting the FED.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    how much money a month does it take to keep this up and running? jw… I'd be more than willing to throw a couple bucks in every month bc this site is great, I'm sure many others would do the same

  • grednfer

    Maybe everyone went over to xtrends where they trade “MACHO” amounts of contracts.

    Sol has postings about his transactions…..He cashed out (or in) and went long…….Think he was nervous when the ES rose above 1010 last night?

    And G(eronimo) has to have one of the best track records I've ever seen…..who needs charts?

    Where do I think we're going? Where do we usually go on FOMC day? That should be good for at least 3 G trades. After that its probably a good short unless we break out of the long term channel.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    SPY is much easier to manage and the spread is much much smaller. Don't be afraid to spread your position though, naked long options are tough to manage….

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    In the nicest way & For what its worth – take your own advice and read the last few weeks and you'll see much talk about theta burn and worthless puts. Puts selling for $3-$5 in July are now trading for .40 or less in just a few weeks. That's some real pain. And now its time for the call buyer to get the same treatment.

  • ItsOnlyPaper

    All work and no play makes mole a dull boy.

    You if anyone deserve a vacation. Of course you know that when you leave the market will tank.

  • mrclam

    Fair enough, at the same time, I doubt many were buying calls on the way up either way. I see the largest OI at 100, so that could make sense. I guess time will tell who is right.

  • PRSGuitars

    I'm with you on the fib fans — this is from a post I did over the weekend (SPX daily)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Gk6XAsNt2

    The 2nd fib fan line meets with the downward channel (I believe 25% line)…

  • springheel_jack

    There is one Disqus related issue that might be dropping the comment count you know Mole.

    As we discussed earlier, I was having Disqus issues today and it may be that those like me who post on more than one blog and particularly who post the same post at more than one blog, as I have done a couple of times, has been having problems getting their posts deleted by the Disqus anti-spamming software.

    The deleted posts drop the comment count of course but it may be that some of the more prolific posters like steveo are having to cut back on the number of blogs they post on to get around the problem.

    Not sure what could be done about it but I know that a lot ofthe posters here and elsewhere have been having Disqus problems with deleted posts. Fujisan, alphahorn, amgrant & numerous others.

    amgrant is having technical issues BTW & hasn't posted anywhere outside hias own blog for a couple of days.

  • byhiselo

    fwiw, a vacation is never a bad idea from my perspective…we don't take nearly enough of them…not saying you should take one now but the market is always here…everyone begging you to stay and not go…well, if not now then when?…cheers

  • PRSGuitars

    (no POMO either, while we're at it)

  • jamesmarkii

    HOLY MOLY!!!!
    ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://www.trendarchitect.com trendarchitect

    The S&P appears to be rolling over especially once it breaks 993 or so. Here is why I believe 960 is the next target once it cracks: http://www.trendarchitect.com/wp-content/upload

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Does anyone realize that JPM is about $11 off its lifetime highs? If this runs up to 1150 I'm sure itll see 50+, might even run up to the $53 high is put in a couple years ago.

    I'm going to be the first one to short the hell out of that

  • SodaBoy

    what's up with all the negativity and depression recently mole?
    in my humble opinion – and i have spent most of my life in social networking – if you've come to a point where you a) don't feel like the effort is worth it b) don't feel like people appreciate your effort c) are not enjoying what you're doing — then its time to move on, shut up shop and take a vacation…

    middle ground innuendos only lead to bickering – uneasy atmosphere – and in an environment such as trading where we all need our sanity – it will only lead to rapid deterioration.

    i for one would hate to see you go!

  • fulcrum

    maybe you should attract new regulars:)no surrender
    cheers..

  • Vardoger

    Much better to be burned out now and step away for a vacation than once wave 3 starts. IMNSHO. I'd be collaborating much more but I'm not really trading at all right now. Holding puts and long the dollar but more focused on raising cash right now and setting up accounts for the fam. Excited to work with all you bears soon…

  • CaptainAnarchy

    I agree. That's why in my last email to you I mentioned the great community you've built here – quality matters.

    But your own needs should take priority. Find someone to sub in and get some sunshine. Maybe scale back your posts to one a day. I'd rather see less of you than none of you. And leverage the community you've built. As the founder of something it's often hard to bring other people into the venture. But I think this site has hit the maturity point where the struggle is to delegate the things that anyone can do, so as to free up time for you to do the parts that only you can do, and to spend more time on strategic concerns about how you're going to grow your traffic and subscription base.

  • marketmaker

    Mole, you're just being a tease and playing hard-to-get.

    You know you love us as much as we love you!

    We've got a grip on you much like the bulls have on this market.

    We are your cruel mistress, and you are a glutton for punishment!

    You can-not es-cape!

    Our bed promises so much pleasure that you cannot resist, and I fully expect you back in it tonight with a new post!

    ๐Ÿ™‚

  • biffermas

    Besides, you're getting 55% more comments than the Slope. It's been a lousy market for people who think clearly and rationally. I know I've been in a tormented state since market fixing and pure B.S. rule the day.

  • devildowg

    Here's a small suggestion from the peanut gallery… Post a tip jar like Calculated Risk. If someone uses your free analysis to enter a winning position, then let them pop in a few bucks to keep the Karma waves from washing back over them. It's also a good place where any forum rivalries to deposit the ill gotten gains from betting a fellow rat over the percentage of GS trade volume for the month (or the “Lester SPY flip/flop per week” betting pool), etc.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    I also ~98 as pretty good support. There's the gap up from two weeks ago, and it lines up with 161% retrace of the move up from Thursday's low to Friday's high: http://screencast.com/t/RKQD3i41R

  • Keirsten

    Var, did you receive my e-mail the other night?

  • rhae

    Running a site/blog has to be a labor of love, when you quit loving it, I suppose one should move on, It should never be considered a chore of obligation (imo)…

    People moving to other pastures? Like cows (looking for greener grass). I don't think it has anything to do with the quality of being here… Many are not doing enough of their own DD, so they move around thinking they will find a Mesiah to lead them to the Land of Milk and Honey… unlikiely. …
    I like it here…

  • LostIllini

    Mole, this is tough tape to hold a position through. I think all the bears have given up which is exactly when the market will drop. I am sure you will be on top of it like white on rice. Nothing makes up for weeks of crap tape like seeing your position make 400% in a day. So until that happens just screen for the crappiest, most bankrupt corporation and go balls deep long.

    Memo to self: acquire a shitload of General Growth Properties calls……

    Not even going to plug my blog but if someone wanted to look up my history of comments and visit I would be ok with that.

  • Keirsten

    Lost- add your blog url to your Disqus profile. That should make it easy to find. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • LostIllini

    Thank you I will do that..

    So if you want to check my profile my blog will be there (STL people I have six flags stock I have to buy, it's going from $.11 to $5.00 in the most massive short squeeze in history)

  • de3600

    ya i saw that the other day WHAT A JOKE kinda tells you something is screwed up big time ill short at 49 if it get there

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Can someone tell me what triggered a 400 pips move in EUR/USD over 2-3days period in late Jul-early Aug. Also, what triggered the massive 200 pip down move last Friday?

  • byhiselo

    yes, stick a paypal donation thingie on the site, you might be surprised

  • byhiselo

    add a paypal donation button to your site, see what happens, don't think it costs anything

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    well EUR/USD was oversold and then the GDP report tanked the dollar to fresh lows, making euro pop hard as hell.

  • hankthedog

    “P.S. I'm using geronimo and loving it. My bottom line loves it, and I enjoy being able to set a bracket, and then forget about it until I get an email saying the target was reached or (rarely) the stop was hit.”

    Can you set an OCO order when a geronimo is sent? In other words, are you alerted to the entry and exit price, or initially just the entry, and then later the exit?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Is there a chance that eur/usd has already tested the floor of 1.4100 and now it is headed up towards 1.4900.

    One more question: with fed stopping QE, won't that strengthen USD?

  • mrclam

    Yes you can set an OCO, I hope mole doesn't mind me disclosing this(he can always edit my post), but the alert comes with an entry, stop, and exit.

  • marketmaker

    What bhb said!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Thanks

    ________________________________

  • spudthorpe

    Let me de-lurk to add to the chorus in support of your analysis and charting. Please keep it up!

  • Kemal_1

    Exactly, helps to defray some of the server, bandwidth costs….

  • Squidman

    From the mouthes of babes………

  • Kemal_1

    Here is today's count. If you look at the details, you realize that the MMs created a ton of traps.

    Hopefully, I recognized them all.

    http://tinyurl.com/oxnl4l

    Remember to get out of all short positions around the wave iii low. You may even go long as wave v will not undercut it by much. In fact I think the low for wave v may only last a few seconds as it may be the first knee jerk reaction after the Fed statement….

    Good luck everyone, I can't post tomorrow morning.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    thanks for your analysis, its always insightful!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    What do you all think about XLE? looks like it may fall a bit, crude might have put in a double top, or at least is running into resistance for the short term.

    I'm tempted to take an ERX put butterfly, which is why I'm asking

  • ropey

    Confused a little…so your st target is 950-960 but your comment above implies a rally after the fed statement?

    thaks again for the screens, interesting take nevertheless

  • Kemal_1

    Small mistake on chart. Target for wave iii is 986.

    Not 886 (don't know why I hit so often 8 instead of 9)

  • molecool

    I always set my stop and target right away – then I can just walk away from it. I recommend setting the target and stop as an OCO if you can't babysit it.

  • Kemal_1

    I tried to explain earlier. A leading diagonal produces a very strong counterrally before the actual very hard drop. So first 986, then rally to around 1012 followed by drop to around 950.

  • molecool

    Exactly…

  • molecool

    Nope, it's mostly you bud – I look into the spam box all the time now and you have incurred too much negative disqus karma which is why they keep eating your posts.

  • rhae

    SPX daily, Remember the important SPX daily channel that I put up yesterday? I dunno if anyone even looks at my charts? I just like putting them up and like to feel that I am contibuting. That chart has not been deleted, yet. I leave them up until the situation changes. Todays results… BUSTED… before jumping in long, I will proabaly wait for a test… or scalp intraday. Until support test done, (may not even test it, dunno)

    SPX daily, no aanotation… all info on yesterday's chart…
    http://screencast.com/t/zROMD5iVnTy

  • molecool

    I agree – really need a vacation.

  • marketmaker

    Ok, so I'm looking at open interest for Aug SPY(on TOS), and I see the following:

    253,478 – 100 call strike

    250,719 – 80 put strike

    Does this mean anything?

    Could someone please explain how to interpret open interest numbers, what their significance is, their usefulness in predicting future market direction, etc.

    Thanks!

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Here's a BJ chart–
    http://zstock7.com/?p=1521

  • molecool

    Actually, I'm not playing a tease – I feel the burn.

    Plus I started another company and am working 90 hour weeks at this point. If I see the comment count fall apart, especially in the context of my very labor intensive weekend posts (takes me 5 hours on average), then I need to start scaling back as the effort/benefit ratio is not there anymore.

  • ropey

    Kiersten, what's your take on GS price target this week? Now it's closed below where you wanted? i sorely seek some rewenge…

  • rhae

    I alway's blame it on crumbs in the keyboard…

  • Kemal_1

    Oil will break out tomorrow. XLE will follow. XLE rally may be contained as long as SPX corrects, later it will explode to the upside. I would not put on this trade.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    Long term SPX chart interestingly is still in play with this pattern. Seems 991 & 1006 important upcoming levels.

    http://screencast.com/t/qQK3IFz9pH

    Some music to chill by

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFNqj3RGUuM&feat

  • ropey

    Some of the peeps here use it as a guide for targets for OPEX – when the positions are unwound the price of the stock tends to gravitate to a point which causes the most pain for calls and put buyers ( or writers ) depends on how people are positioned.

    Watch GOOG as a clean example, it tends to settle on round strike prices.

    Also for example, if you notice massive OI at certain prices below, clearly people think the price is going down big OR there's alot of people who are going to be out of pocket as the price is held above for opex. You need to use direction of the market+stock aswell to determine it further as you don't know whether those contracts were bought or sold and just as important imo when they were bought or sold. You can sometimes figure it out but it is a crapshoot.

    Either way, the OI provides a point of interest. For example on the SPY i will tend to write my spreads beyond where the large OI is because the MM's may take the price to either strikes or they may just pin it somewhere in between…..it really is down to analysis of the macro picture, catalysts, general market sentiment aswell to give you a picture on which to base a trading decision.

    Look beyond frontmonth to see where the OI is grouping to get a feel aswell i.e. you'll notice in sept the Q's and SPY have some very interesting OI.

    End of the day,nothing is a guarantee, it is merely a guide, it is just showing you there is 'interest' around those specific points for whatever reason. It is upto you to come to a conclusion as to why and to trade accordingly.

    I know fujisan and anna have used it to great effect in the past with butterflies and a few other strategies.

  • marketmaker

    I apologize.

    If you need a vacation – by all means, take one man.

    I think your blog is so awesome that we've come to take it for granted.

    I think we all “feel you”, Mole, and will support whatever decision you make.

    I, for one, will still be here when you get back!

  • ropey

    much appreciated, thankyou

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    wishful thinking lol

  • marketmaker

    Ropey –

    I still don't get it, but I appreciate the response.

    Thanks!

  • molecool

    Didn't read my weekend update, did ya?

  • molecool

    Ad banners paid for it thus far but fucking Adsense pulled the plug two weeks ago. I contested it and they refused it. I'm about to set up Technorati – let's see how that goes.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    is it just me or does anyone else notice that new comment posts are getting added to the bottom of the comments and sometimes randomly in the middle? Is anything configurable with discus?

  • rhae

    I use OI / option chains all the time… And I have not traded options for years

  • molecool

    Mate – you can't a-b-c in the motive direction – it's a direct violation of primary EWT rules.

    Back to the drawing board with you.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    ICE looks like it will be a really nice short very soon…. probably going to pick up some puts on a pop

  • molecool

    See above – 'sort by' right below the comment count.

  • Keirsten

    My lower target is 152.59, and this is based on old swing low horizontal support intersecting with the current TL from the March low, as well as the 50 EMA. 152.59, 151.98, 151.17 respectively. There is further old gap support from '06 and early '08 lurking in the same area. Best bet is to just monitor it carefully if it proceeds toward the highest support number and evaluate then. ATR is at 4.11 right now, so that target could get hit fairly quick depending on how far down we go. My current stop is 163.21.

    If it breaks below that iron floor, I'll update new targets.

  • ropey

    Hmm maybe some else can simplify my discussion. Open interest is at its most basic the number of contracts open at a particular strike.

    In your example 250,719 – 80 put strike

    Means there are 250,719 contracts bought or sold that are open at the 80 strike.

    So clearly some people have been going long betting on a move to 80, these may of been opened up for arguments sake when the 880 level was tested thinking the market was going to dump big to low 800s for august opex..
    Some people have sold contracts at this level ( smart money ), spotting the bear trap or just there is no chance of the market getting there at all. These maybe part of other strategies like credit spreads, iron condors and what not or even naked puts ( heavens' forbid ) and they are betting on the market staying above 80 on the spy for august…

    You notice people get spooked a bit on options expiration day and tend to not trade it as the price moves can be somewhat irrational. The moves are simply all the contracts getting closed out – this is why you see really weird moves and prices gravitating in bizarre ways.

    Best thing to do is make a note of the stuff you find unsuual and see how it plays out a week on friday. Like i say GOOG is a fairly clean one to watch, SPYs aren't too bad by and large….

    Does that help?

  • ropey

    Sounds groovy – thanks for the update.

  • ropey

    Oh and for the record i'm no expert obviously, if something is totally out of whack or i have it wrong – please yell. I'm just telling it from what i picked up over time.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    LOL….stupid me…wonder when I accidentally clicked that. Thanks Mole

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I'll try to explain using layman language (I am one in options)
    “250,719 – 80 put strike” – these are puts bought by idiots back in June (on expectations of that “banned” pattern), means squawk, gone, finita.

    “253,478 – 100 call strike” – these are replacements for long positions they easing on right now (just in case it will go up) and small fishy betting on more upside

    Don't use my interpretation at home – I am a trained crazy professional

  • playtowin

    Mole – I read all the posts here. You don't need to post a lot as quality of your posts is what matters and it is always to the point and without the crap.
    I like the posts that offer a count to back up their posts. Not quite sure how to politely put this but I do not want to read/listen to a bunch of posts that just yawn on about what a great day it is because the market is going the way they are positioned! So that is the the majority on here and unfortunately includes the 'girls' who seem to have an adoring fan club on here just because they are girls and not because they contribute anything particularly useful! I realize its a blog and anyone can contribute but seriously the most frequent posters who provide quality postings aside from yourself are Alphahorn, Kemal , V8 Muscle, Osso, Fujisan (is the only girl I see on here actually giving technical posts) and there are a few others. FWIW I am english, living in America, female and sick of all the American corruption and BS. In essence you have some quality people on here. Stick with it.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    same target ๐Ÿ™‚
    just using different woo-doo

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just posted updated SPX chart on my secret blog I shall not name

  • Keirsten

    Not sure what Kemal sees, but here's my take on those charts: Note how XLE saved itself at the 20 SMA today, with the 50 not far below. ERX held support today too, so I'd wait for a breakdown through that support first. You might be better off going through the individual holdings to find better victims. I would not short oil directly until price gets under support at the 20/50 SMA on the daily, but I don't try to pick tops, I try to trade the breakdowns and breakouts. G/L

  • Keirsten

    I like that woo-doo that yoo doo, too. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • marketmaker

    Ropey –

    That DOES help. Thank you.

    Damn – I feel guilty, like I should be paying for all this info.

  • Iguanadon

    Must be that damn patch over your eye.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Oh, the good ole breakouts…
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=t6cvLiZI

  • fballislife

    Six Flags…? Are you joking or serious?

  • Kemal_1

    You are referring to an impulsive wave.

    However, we are dealing here with a leading diagonal (LD). In an LD all waves are 'threes' (e.g. abc). And a LD has 5 waves.

  • Kemal_1

    good one!

    ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    read it twice… but suffering from short term memory loss due to jetlag and mental shock of coming from a developing country to a soon-to-be-under-developed country (usa)

  • steveo77

    Try a stink put (or ten of them and fairly illiquid equities), know what I mean? The Hal 9000's change option pricing automatically based on stock price and volatility. Not based upon a rational pricing mechanism such as a trained human could perform. Bid 1.00 for something selling for $3.00 and then hope for a panic selloff and then a dead cat bounce.

  • rhae

    Hey ropey, I like VooDoo… another roll of the chicken bones… You guys are probably all looking at the same thing ๐Ÿ™‚
    http://screencast.com/t/T2DlhF9pk5

  • steveo77

    Good stuff Ropey, you obviously learned this stuff the best and costliest way…by doing and observing.

    One adder….in options expiration week, which starts next Monday, (Expiry is on the third Friday of every month), the big movements occur on Mon to Wed, and Thurs and Friday the fireworks are already over.

  • molecool

    “FWIW I am english, living in America, female”

    But are you hot?

    Just kidding – thanks for the input. Yes, noise level is something I'm also concerned about. In their defense – the past few months have been pretty boring for the bears as we had to stay away from the tape quite a bit. I hope that everyone shows up 'for work' here as we start descending later this fall.

  • http://partiallystapled.com/ gxti

    Not only that, but you can send the entry and both exits all at the same time using the “1st trigs OCO” pattern in ToS. I'd love to play Geronimo, but I have a hilariously tiny capital base :/

  • steveo77

    Suggested form of payment is to become an expert in a miniscule part of the big game, like, say, know VIX/ VXN like the back of your hand, and do your own spreadsheets, charts, and correlations on it. Then contribute that inform to fellow bloggers.

    If you are serious about wanting to pay…..

  • mrclam

    I avoid doing the 1st trigs OCO to avoid slippage, depending on how the market looks. I used to try to get better entries than geronimo, but I'm pretty happy to just mimic the system's performance these days.

  • molecool

    Got it – please provide me with a full chart – I was unable to decipher the one you posted – maybe I looked at the wrong one.

    For what it's worth: Leading diagonals are extremely rare, especially in equities (there was one between Nov – Dec 1979 in the DJI). However, they do occur at the start of declines and I won't throw it out. Nevertheless, the simple count is usually the correct one and unless I see more convincing charts I will remain skeptical about this one.

  • steveo77

    Serious Mole, I would pay for a Zero Sub but running a company, cannot participate on a real time basis as much as I would like. But I would throw a rat some cheese.

  • rhae

    you little devil, you can't hide it from me… very possible,
    my computer screen likes your white charts better, or just my vision… ๐Ÿ™‚

  • playtowin

    “FWIW I am english, living in America, female”

    You never disappoint with your european wit!

    Its okay I am sure we all filter what we find useful or not. I wouldn't blame you for taking a vacation (sods law the market will tank when you do however!). I am not about to move to another site which has abandoned a well thought out wave count just because the market has rallied more than we anticipated. Hell, this is typical wave 2 (or B) action which is designed to challenge every bearish bone in our body. I am sure the majority on here will show up for work – it may just take longer than anticipated to play out – but think of the fall that will follow!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    my plan for tomorrow
    I expect SPX to drop slightly on the open to 993 area, then vacillate around that level till 10:10AM with retouching of 992.90 and if so – I will go extra crispy heavy long with stop under 992.74 on 3minutes bar close
    http://screencast.com/t/8HHCErYk

    Still holding /nq long (that bad morning long trade @1604.25) – marking it to market (as of now -5pts) after all fiddling around only made 4 /es points and 11 /nq, but expecting to close that position at profit tomorrow, thou have b/e sell for now for nightly action. Shall it fill – /nq profit will e around 12 pts per contract.
    Life stinks!!!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsfdUqzkSck

    and this is for Mole's eyes only
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wla61s1A0NY

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    'dark charts” are way crowded, but I really need everything I have there ๐Ÿ™

  • divergence

    For anyone interested, I posted an short entry on TYH (tech 3X bull) a couple of weeks ago, I thought we had topped out, and I wanted to find something where chop or chop+ downish or straight down would work in my favor, and I was able to get shares.

    Prior to this huge rally, I had a 40% short on QQQQ from May, and I painfully had to cut size and cut size during the blast off. It hurt. I didn't get the best entry at 116 on TYH, but it never took out the previous high from 7/30, so I have held on, and now it is maybe starting to pay off. I will probably cover some or all tomorrow morning if we drop.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no disrespect to muscles of V8, but I've been offering this http://screencast.com/t/yCcrURiXvQ explanation for a while…oh wait – do I see inverse H&S on daily in process? Shhh….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    very good friend of mine hates what INFY did to their beautiful village

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “surprised” that everyone would be thinking that someone else already donated?

  • ropey

    Let's see how it plays out – only thing that i'd add is that if everyone is seeing this level, maybe it won't happen ๐Ÿ˜‰ lol..will be keepin a beady eye on it..

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'll add another piece of info specifically on the SPY August 100 call and August 80 put. I've seen those huge open interests there at least as far back as late June. (They REALLY stood out like sore thumbs then because August was not the front-month contract, other open interests were lower.)

    I haven't been keeping a real close eye on the 80 put. However the 100 call OI tailed off in early July as SPY tested the H&S line at 87-88 – but never below 175,000. I would have expected OI about 25,000 then, not 175,000.

    With just 10 days of life left, whoever is still holding those positions open has to be short. I wonder if there's a hedge fund out there doing a giant short straddle with 100,000 to 150,000 contracts each side. If SPY ends next week between 80 and 100, they'd pocket full premium on all of them.

    If I recall the position limit on SPY options is 300,000 calls and 300,000 puts, across all strikes and expiries. So such a straddle would be within limits.

    Pure speculation of course. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “the 'girls' who seem to have an adoring fan club on here just because they [say they] are girls”
    Love British humor ๐Ÿ™‚

  • C’s & 3’s

    I looked at your chart and started thinking we consolidate and then push up to complete the abc of C 1120ish

  • Blind_Squirrel

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfHlA3fmJG0

    Mole, here is what it has felt like being a bear the last month!!

    1 step forward 2 steps back!!!

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    We are def. still in a correction from the 1016 peak. How much further we go remains to be seen but the short term trend has shifted in favor of the bulls, and the NASDAQ is leading the way down http://bit.ly/NUj69

  • Kemal_1

    I actually did a big labeling mistake. I am glad you critized me, prompted me to check back.

    The LD is correct, but my labeling of it is not.

    I will upload correctly labeled charts.

  • grednfer

    Now that forecast makes sense……
    Before FOMC sell off
    After FOMC Rally!
    After FOMC Rally…..Sell Off

    I'm in …… long from high 980s short at 1012. 986 make sense too…a few “stop finder” points below todays low.

    950 will also give the bulls their sell-off to rationalize going to 8050….I mean 1050, maybe.

  • Kemal_1

    I did a bad mistake in labeling the leading diagonal. Waves 1, 3, 5 should be impulsive (which they are). Sorry for the confusion.

    So the LD is for real but my labeling was off. The corrected chart for the SPX:

    http://tinyurl.com/mgjqvb

    and for the NDX:

    http://tinyurl.com/mx6hpn

    I posted the NDX because it shows overlap between waves ii and iv, which is a typical, though not mandatory, feature of LDs.

    So shorts still need to be closed early tomorrow. Wave v could truncate and finish around 993. It also could make a new low. At present it is not predictable.

    The b wave rally could reach 1013 if the low is 893.

  • Bain
  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    glad to be on the same page now

  • molecool

    Sounds good – thanks. Happens to me all the time (most rats don't notice ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Kemal_1

    Next time, just shoot me down immediately.

    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • SpeedSkt1

    Hey Mole–

    I've been reading your blog since the beginning of the year, but I just signed up for a Disqus account a few days ago. Your work here is great.

    I told a few trading buds of mine in Chicago about your stuff, and now they can't wait to read the updates. Your writing is far more entertaining (and informative) than any other service out there.

  • molecool

    ยครธโ€žยธยธโ€žรธยคยบยฐยจยครธโ€žยธยธโ€žรธยคยบยฐยจ
    ยจยฐยบยครธโ€žยธ N E W โ€žรธยคยบยฐยจ
    ยธโ€žรธยคยบยฐยจ P O S T “ยฐยบยครธโ€žยธ
    ยธโ€žรธยคยบยฐยจยครธโ€žยธยธโ€žรธยคยบยฐยบยครธโ€žยธ

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    if 1.4147 will not hold, then 3896 possible – after that next level up would be 4677
    http://screencast.com/t/kpRrwj3pXrX

    as for 4900 area – it is at least 3-4 weeks away

    and real show stopper will be 5950 if it’ll ever gets there

  • Anonymous

    Happy birthday! Go for it.

  • springheel_jack

    And yet many others have most definitely been having Disqus problems.

    Presumably a different problem then.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    And yet many others have most definitely been having Disqus problems.

    Presumably a different problem then.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Kemal, if your projection of eur/usd is correct which is how it looks so far, then the spx top is not in, as many believe – right?

    Warm Regards,
    Ashish

    ——
    sent from my mobile device