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Scott Update
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Scott Update

by ScottApril 1, 2015

The inside day setup from Monday you should now be out of, hopefully with either some profits banked or in worst case breakeven.

wednesday1

Futures are very volatile today for the Asian session, I smell fuckery afoot. Advise caution today. The only setup I like for today is in ZB (30 year bond). Small range, failed top picking exercise. Bread and butter again.

wednesday2


About The Author
Scott

  • mugabe

    Scott (or anyone else),

    I know that this might be too general a question, but for initial stops for a long position, do you prefer low of the previous bar to any sort of ATR? I’m talking about swing trading here- ie dailies.

    This is more for Scott / Mole:

    Another question. I’ve noticed that for Crazy Ivan (going great guns by the way), one of its big strengths is that the losses are in general very small: -0.1R, -0.2 R. Is this because it has a time component built in to the stop loss?

  • Careus

    I am not Scott but I think i can help you with that..
    Why don’t you backtest that idea…placing ISL at low of bar of entry and also run various instances of ATR. Do that for you last 30 campaigns. Have UR own result. You don’t want to blindly follow what Scott or Mole or I say. Just print charts, and play with last 30 campaigns. it is simple, and once you have done it it is deliberating. Make conclusions for yourself and then put them in your trading plan.

    Regarding CrazyIvan, time component makes sense, when you have done your own research based on your setups. It depends on your rules, it can’t be same if you are trend following and in other case if you are scalper. Time component has meaning, you had a setup which should resolve in a way, but after some x time id didn’t. Staying in market after that x time, make less sense. You will usually start thinking what went wrong, maybe increase position, start hoping/praying for market to go your way…you will lose money..and confidence…you will lose more money.

    While I am writing…
    http://www.forexschoolonline.com/a-study-on-thinking-feeling-how-professional-traders-react-to-emotions/

    This is very important..people usually trying to avoid painful experiences…one of them can be making they own RBT, and making they own research, as having fear that they have no edge, asking advices from other…so other are to blame if it not working..etc…

  • mugabe

    Thanks.
    Valid points – need to do it myself. Not looking for anyone to blame, though πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    Scott has good smelling…ran spx to near even and proceeded to sell it..

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t know what Trading Platform you use but regarding ATR Trailing Stops, TOS has a selection for this whereby I can set my trail for x number of bars, and choose whatever ATR multiple I want. I can also set for whether position is long or short (but I haven’t done this because I don’t think it makes that much difference on my stops because of the smoothing effect over x periods. I can also choose whether I want my averages to be Simple, Exponential, Weighted, Hull or Wilders. I use the default on this choice which is Wilders.

    The best thing is that this is all plotted on my chart so once I get what I believe to be the correct Trail for any given product (through back testing), it is then calculated automatically. I will then set the initial stop upon entry and then move the stop as price goes in my favor.

    Discretionary comes into play for me when deciding whether or not to chase a big gap (usually not) and whether or not to enter a trade when it is in a fairly tight range or flatlining. There is also another choice involved with whether or not to stay in a trade that goes into a flat line and hangs there for a relatively long period of time.

  • ridingwaves

    back in SLW, gold looks poised for move north on active delivery month…

  • Skynard

    Now short /CL for the retest

  • Ronebadger

    FYI…this coming Good Friday…NYSE closed…what else?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    your Mama.

  • Ronebadger
  • BobbyLow

    Probably want to rethink this one GG.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah.
    why do you always have to be so …right!
    πŸ˜‰

  • Skynard

    DCB

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wake up komrades,
    Ruble is trying to escape it’s multi-month downtrend.
    [RBL]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RBL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45840842507

  • JackSparow

    middle of the road.. could tag 51/54

  • mugabe

    Thanks. One question: if TOS does the trail automatically, why do you need to manually move the stop?

  • BobbyLow

    The stops are constantly moving and auto calculated on my charts. It’s up to me to change my stop orders. (when necessary). I choose to ONLY use the Stop at the “CLOSE” of each bar/candle. This eliminates a lot of tape watching and noise. It’s also the way my back testing was performed and I want to stay true to it.

    I think that one would need to write some kind of program/automated trade system in order for all this to be done automatically. Auto Trade is above my pay grade. πŸ™‚

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Alright guys – I’m heading out. Assuming an uneventful flight I see you guys in VLC.

  • ridingwaves

    just bought some short RUT and SPX..thanks for the update

  • BobbyLow

    Have a good flight.

  • BobbyLow

    I picked up a little short SPX too. πŸ™‚

  • newbfxtrader

    Heh. Time to sell πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (GG waves)

  • Sean

    It is pretty easy to setup a conditional order based on an indicator (like your stops on the chart) in TOS… I can help you with that if you want.

  • Anthony Morrow

    safe travels!

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Sean, perhaps sometime in the future. But for the time being, I actually like to input moving stops myself because it’s only in my favor when I do. πŸ™‚

    My Forex System is of a scalping nature and I use OCO trades with these so I never have to worry about them. And the other stuff that I trade are ETF’s and are only good for NYSE hours so there’s nothing I can do about overnight threats even if I wanted to.

  • mugabe

    espero que el piloto no sea aleman!

  • ridingwaves

    watch miner complex….it looks to be about ready to pop…..SLW could run to 22 pretty quickly where it will meet some resistance….the fed needs commodities higher to chant inflation creeping north is reason for rate increase…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • mugabe

    got out of slw for a loss… stops are stops. will see if any miners pop up on the scan tonite.

    FWIW, my 2 oil stocks are doing well today, but haven’t checked the whole oil complex.

  • mugabe

    ‘I actually like to input moving stops myself because it’s only in my favor when I do. :)’

    sound psychology!

  • ridingwaves

    I was stopped out to but jumped back in this morning…some long term SMA’s are now getting pretty close for metals. I’ve been waiting for them to get down here….what a long wait it’s been..

  • evilasevildoes

    dbs is 2x slv

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • mugabe

    asia up, europe up, usa down today. One day don’t make a trend, but this relative weakness has been going on a month or two, based on my ROC lens. situation seems to be be shifting bit by bit. time for rest of world to take over from US (in stock terms)?

  • mugabe

    yes .. I saw the immediate reaction on the chart πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    I think that is the meme….a large rounded top….plus they can take some money from all the foreign cash that made it’s way into these parts…along with 401K money sitting there….
    ABX is above 20/50/100 which is my first filter on trend trade…

  • BobbyLow

    Getting ready to go do some mowing but before I do, I wonder if anyone here has had problems with Windows 8 and 8.1 going to 100% Disc Capacity and freezing up. My computer is only about 2 years old has plenty of RAM and a decent sized HD. I’ve Googled this issue and have found numerous discussions about this problem on the net which has been around for some time. Apparently, it doesn’t happen with all computers but I guess only certain brands (mine is a Samsung). What pisses me off is that I never had this problem with Windows ME, XP, Vista, or W7 and I’ve been researching for weeks to try to find a solution to it because I guess Microsoft doesn’t give a shit about it.

    Anyhow, late last night I tried something that I read on many threads and think I found a fix for this problem. Microsoft in its infinite wisdom created and “improved” a thing called “SuperFetch”. What I think Superfetch does is think ahead and anticipate what files the computer needs before you actually need them. This is supposed to speed things up. Well to my thinking, after awhile these files build up so much that it ends up working the shit out of the disc causing it to go to 100% and incrementally freeze up for a short while. I’ve had this happen in the middle of a trade and it is really something.

    So last night, I went into Services and Stopped “Superfetch”. Today, I probably would have had to reboot twice by now. So far so good and my Disc is working normally. I would never know that “Superfetch” is not working other than my computer is not locking up. πŸ™‚ I’ll keep my fingers crossed that this fix is the real deal.

  • evilasevildoes

    I did so bought even bigger add on hard drive

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Good luck. I once had an issue with antivirus software that would requarantine files that were already quarantined. The space on my hard drive dedicated to quarantined files expanded exponentially and it wasn’t long before I entered the “I hate my computer” phase of PC ownership.

  • newbfxtrader

    shouldnt really be running on all disk capacity used up. Go to disk cleanup and then clean system files and see if you can get some space back.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sounds like you have it resolved.
    Like it or not, those new Electronic HD’s (SSD’s) are extremely speedy.
    I run my OS on it, and store my data/files on an old-fashion HD.
    no problem for several years now.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah thats the best way to do it unless you can afford huge TB size SSDs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes. but at some point, you just have to draw the line.
    πŸ˜‰

    http://www.thessdreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/OWC-Drives-2.jpg

  • newbfxtrader

    You must have server full of these images for every occasion…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    IT son says windows 8 is shit, get rid of it……

  • Scott Phillips

    The easier way to look at it is that in a very strong move that is going to last some time, buying pressure should exist across all sectors, all markets, from small caps to dow 30, and from europe to usa to japan and everything in between.

    Evidence therefore is that we are still in a trading range. A rule of thumb is that if you don’t know if it is a trend or a range, it is probably a range, since we always see trends that aren’t quite there πŸ™‚

  • Scott Phillips

    NEW POST!

  • BobbyLow

    Nope it’s not that. As I was doing my research, I found people who had this problem with computers right out of the box. I know this sounds like a strange kind of problem and why it only affects some computers and not others, I don’t know. I’ve also read where people who have run disc cleanup, and everything imaginable and still had the problem.

    BTW, another thing that used to happen prior to stopping Superfetch was after the computer would go into hibernation, it would be all screwed up and take a long time for it to straighten itself out. I just came in from mowing and it was asleep for about 2 hours. I hit the button and boom – it woke right up and the Disc was operating fine.

    It’s only been one day, but so far I’m pretty convinced it was this stupid Superfetch causing the problem.

  • BobbyLow

    That was going to be my last resort. πŸ™‚