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Second Helping
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Second Helping

by The MoleMarch 6, 2017

This may be strange coming from an expat living in Spain but you guys have no idea how much I miss going to a good ole’ fashioned American diner. No not one of those fake copies in L.A. they build on top of the original ones after tearing them down. Yes, I’m looking at you Mel’s – what the heck were you guys thinking? A solid American diner has an ambience unique to where it’s located, it must have a zany 1950s interior, there need to be impatient chain smoking career waitresses, and the food of course needs to be delicious with generous portions to boot. My favorite diner in the world is Carla’s Route 66 in Twentynine Palms – I think it used to be called Hutchin’s and had a Harley Davidson shop right next door. Unfortunately those old originals seem to be slowly disappearing one by one, which is a dirty rotten shame.

2017-03-06_spoos

What got me to this theme was the second helping I’m taking out in the E-Mini, although I’m now on a spring diet and it’ll have to be only be 0.5%. This is one of those deals where it’ll need to take off within this session or it’s probably a stillborn. So I’ll watch it today and if it can’t get going then I may yank it either tonight or tomorrow. Which as you know is rare for me.

2017-03-06_NG_update

Natgas update – that’s quite a jump there after the weekend and fortunately it’s been in our favor. This alone may give you an appreciation why I never throw more than half an R at this beast. Anyway we’ll be moving our stop to about 1/3 of an R > break-even and below the most recent spike low. There’s a good chance for an attempt to fill this gap and we don’t want to be taken out prematurely has this has the tell tale signs of a possible runner.

2017-03-06_ZM_watch

Soybean Meal in on my watch list but it’s not there just yet. We’ll need a dip and full retest of the 100-day SMA and then we’ll talk.

2017-03-06_corn_watch

Corn has also been on my watch list as you know but today’s price actions suggests that we’ll have to wait until the contract rolls over in a day or two.

I’ve kept two very special goodies for my intrepid subs – please meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • AcoBrasil

    Yep. Gap filled on a weak drawdown. Sold my SPXU this morning.

  • ridingwaves

    I recommend Kelcys diner in Tehachapi for those hwy58 rides….Diners definitely fill the plate..
    Great entry on NG, you must have waited for my stop out last week…:)
    2370 spx held again…looks to be a range of 2370-2430 but it’s early

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Nick’s (“Greasy Spoon”), Oneonta, NY in the Catskills (I went to the state college there) WAS the ultimate … closed now (rodent problem?); read these old Yelps for laugh.
    https://www.yelp.com/biz/nicks-diner-oneonta

  • ridingwaves

    factory orders came in hot, throwing CL a bone

  • BobbyLow

    You might as well load up on Crude now RW. I’ve decided to part ways with oil for awhile sniff, sniff, so it’ll probably get off its ass and start moving now. I’ve begun dating a few new hotties like Nat Gas, Silver and the Miners. At first blush, they’re all showing me some love but I also realize how careful I need to be. :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah its cool, central location, lots of neat pics and just across from the railroad tracks.

  • ridingwaves

    on the daily this sideways channel seems like one of the longest periods of no large moves that I can find on charts…..I’m close to tossing the profit into account too….

  • ridingwaves

    they have a good pie too….not the greatest but on that route it might be….

    ohhh and 2370 just puked….2350 could come into play…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    waiting to see if Tech finds support.
    ..like a rock skipping on the water.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/acaeebbe600b1f7632427445c5a26d693d3be8316a094c4e395f7ce9f7e3c59e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • JackSparow
  • ridingwaves

    that’s what I was seeing….doesn’t look like it ends well..

  • kudra

    About to get stopped out on 65% of my NUGT position from last week. big loss.

  • Edd

    Kudra you cannot possibly be using any type of reasonably backtested system on miners on a daily chart. The last entry by my view on NUGT was on 2-16 with an exit on 2-17, nothing since. The waterfall ensued that day. Higher lows every day on DUST from 2-23. It has been a moonshot. Please, please don`t do this the way you are doing. Years ago I lost an account trading options the way you are trading.

  • BobbyLow

    I got back into DUST this AM and it is moving on up again and I got back in this AM. Funny thing about Nutty Gas is that I held long over the weekend because I had found that positive gaps outweighed negative gaps. However, after completing a re-back test on the Hourly this weekend holding over weekends, I found that the dynamics completely changed and overall results were worse. So even though back tests are only a look at price action over a period of time, I might have got a little lucky on this one. I also put a small Short on Silver via DSLV at the COB on Friday.

    Back testing is a great method for establishing a lens on how one could view a market on a given time frame. However, changes to the testing method even some that might appear to be minor can alter everything. So I have to remember that results of a back test are never a guarantee. They are only a view of what has happened in the past under certain criteria and given the same criteria “might” happen in the future with emphasis on “might”. In any event this has been beneficial for me and sure beats making trading decisions based on my gut or even worse calling bottoms or tops.

  • kudra

    Thanks, Edd. Unfortunately, i’ve been engaged in trading poorly for 9+ years and have lost a small fortune. The end game is near, unless I can change things up dramatically.

  • kudra

    I should have been out of NUGT last Thurs, at the latest, when GDX lost 22.50 and closed below.

  • BobbyLow

    Kudra, this begs the same question that a lot of us began asking you many months ago and this is why do you continue to trade in a way that has been proven to you doesn’t work? Calling Bottoms or Tops does not work. Gut does not work. The market licks its chops for those that do. Hopium does not work either.

    Perhaps you have to lose it all or maybe you can change before you do. Edd, Myself, Scott and many others here have all made the same mistakes you are making.

    I’ll only ask one more question at this time and it is have you back tested any type of systematic approach to your trading?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, that was a nice move. I exited just above this level because near term objective reached.

  • BobbyLow

    I think you are trying to catch a move at the precise moment that it begins or just before. Why not get into a move after it has begun and ride some MOMO? It’s a hell of a lot easier to swim with the tide instead of against it. At least it is for me.

  • Mark Shinnick

    There is another objective above this so as we retrace a bit here I’m looking to reenter.

  • Edd

    Kudra, I stopped completely at an earlier time in life and so should you. I could give you my own trading plan and you would make money, but that is not the answer. You have to do the work. You have to make something that is your work, your view. You aren`t even at that point yet. Stop, walk away, clear your head. This can`t even be considered a viable hobby at this point. Hobbies cost money, but at least bring enjoyment. Commit to a long term break. No trading. No looking at price action. Walk away for a time.

  • kudra

    Great ?’s, Bobby. I’ve got no clear answer to ? 1. I must be stupid. And no, I have no systematic approach to trading and have never back tested anything.

  • AcoBrasil

    Are you using any technical indicators when you decide on an entry or exit – gaps, bollingers, RSI, candlestick patterns, etc?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its all cool….we all have different internal motives. Its one thing to say to ourselves about trading to be winning $, but it often falls that our real motive actually expresses itself. For example, for some its a form of entertainment, for other’s a thrill going against the grade…whatever it happens to be. I feel it is key to see our motives as honestly as we can, and not be at odds with the results only we are making to happen…which results simply reflect our real motive: Losses may in fact be winning.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t think your stupid. There might be some deep psychological reasons that are beyond my pay grade as to why you keep doing what you are doing. Maybe it’s some kind of gambling action rush and that’s OK. But if so, and you were sitting at a Black Jack Table, you would want to know when the probabilities were in your favor to take a hit and when to stand pat.

  • Tomcat

    I am short Crude here (dec18), consistent with my belief that Oil longs are betting on Trump/reflation. I want to short the shale in full swing and FED tightening by 150bps. The Arabs are still in control of this trade though…

  • kudra

    Thank you, Edd. I’ve been on this board for years and have received similar advice from kind souls like you. I’ve tried to make this work, but holding on to positions that turn against me and even adding to such positions has been my downfall. Going forward I am committed to not losing more than 1R (which I understand is typically set at 1% of the value of the trading account) on any position.

    This year, I have been purging my books of debris – two dying micro cap biotechs purchased in 2015. However, I am still carrying an out-sized short (position sizing has also been my downfall) on the RUT from the end of last year, which will have to be purged as well. A clean slate is essential. I’ve expended way too much emotional capital carrying losing positions.

    On the bright side, through this process of unsuccessfully attempting to trade for a living, I have gotten better at stress management, patience, and self-love. Although i have lost enough (the non-financial losses hurt as much as the financial ones, if not more), to make a person clinically depressed, i am no where near this type of thinking. I retain a positive outlook on life and have through losing, developed a greater appreciation for all things. That said, it’s time for me to get the job done or start putting a resume together.

    Perhaps, Mole’s subscription service could be of use to a simpleton like me. I’ve considered it but never pulled the trigger thinking it was geared towards options, currencies, and futures traders, not ETF hacks like me.

    Thank you.

  • Mark Shinnick

    You have achieved consistency; that’s not a product of stupidity. Ignoring how you are being successfully consistent is the only stupidity. The biggest risk of all this is becoming mentally confused about just what we intend.

  • ridingwaves

    jumped in PIRS here at 2.44, possible break out above, weekly and daily are similar…if it bust thru it will run hard….news is helping…
    https://s11.postimg.org/pm8kba6zn/PIRS_weekly_3617.png
    S at 2.25

  • Mark Shinnick

    Thanks.

  • kudra

    I don’t think I’m stupid either. I have a juris doctorate degree, if that means anything. Ten years ago, I left a lucrative law practice to go it alone and have the freedom of making my own schedule and spending more time with my young children. I was grossly unprepared for what I faced in the trading arena and my bearish bias was my undoing. I had a contrarian tendency and the need to be smarter than the market. i thought I had corrected this behavior, but my trading without set stops remained. ugh, if I could do it all over again. . . No regrets. Fall forward as Denzel says.

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, until last week, I had been mired in a 8 week period of really piss poor performance. One of the reasons for this is because of my love and force of habit for predominately trading Oil that has been in an overly extended tight range and in a steady road to nowhere. During January and February, I got whipsawed many times. But one of the things I did during this bad run was after each loss, my next position’s risk size became smaller and then smaller and then smaller etc. This is because I’ve already been through the kind of disaster that can happen by doubling down to get my money back. By reducing my sizes either one or two things would happen. Either I eventually would get back to my winning ways with Crude or do what I actually did and that is stop trading Oil alltogether for awhile.

    The reason why I said all of this is that we all have losses in this business and anyone who says that they don’t is full of shit. But the key is and always has been to “cut your losses short and let your winners run” and not the other way around.

  • AcoBrasil

    Looks a bit overbought. I would expect a fall back below the upper Bollinger before a move higher, but you obviously understand the industry.

  • AcoBrasil

    Tight ranges across the board today. There is a lot of data coming out of Brazil this week that will probably be mostly positive – looking for an entry here.

  • BobbyLow

    OK one last thing. I think you have a misconception on what is safe to trade and what is not. First of all if you have had no successful experience trading options then my advice would be to stay the fuck away from them. The option market gets fat on newbies.

    By the sounds of what your losses have been, your trading account apeared to have sufficient capital to trade futures. If I hadn’t fucked up my accounts in a similar manner to what you are doing right now, I would be trading Futures today instead of ETF’s because Futures are the safest game of all. Why is that you didn’t ask? :) If you were to jump into futures and trade 20 contracts at a time then you would deserve to get your balls cut off. However, if you trade one contact of E-mini’s it’s $50 per point, the amount of movement in the E-minis per day on one contract is nowhere as much as the movement in the Thousands of shares you have held in DUST, NUGT and some of the other 3X’s you have traded. The biggest difference between the Futures Market and the Equity Market is that if something happens overnight that rattles the markets, you would most probably get stopped out at a reasonable level. But when the same thing happens overnight to the equity market, the morning gap can be horrible as you already know.

    So perhaps Moles Sub Service might be actually better for you if you can’t or won’t design your own system.

  • ridingwaves

    bullish volume is strong…they have a drug platform that looks promising. Just rec’d some partnership money so their is no dilution or quick move up to dilute….

    looks real, that 2.50-55 resistance is only thing holding it back….if more buyers don’t show up towards last hour it might not break out….move stop down to 2.22….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • AcoBrasil

    Just nabbed an entry. Good week for EWZ to retest its high.

  • AcoBrasil

    Its on my watchlist. Thanks for the heads up.

  • Edd

    Kudra, contact me if you ever want to talk further. I have been where you are, and have sat where you sit. I was accomplished in my life before trading and believed the skills and experience were transferable to this endeavor. It was the most humbling and humiliating experience in my life. Do not underestimate the underlying issues you may have within. Regards. ecduffy79@gmail.com

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if you break the 40 simple, bail.
    (RSI < 50 assumed) see last Nov.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/91433c3d72d44e1a03449e14e41e243f503023e596fc5516b2b42d82b0b3dd12.png

    -GG

  • AcoBrasil

    Thanks for the chart. I like when you post these. Filling that gap would be a nice start :)

  • kudra

    Thank you, Edd. Your experience mirrors mine. I am trying my best to be realistic about this whole experience and not underestimate the effects it has had and may have.

  • AcoBrasil

    If US markets and commodities close relatively flat today, it should give an impetus for Europe to move higher tomorrow morning, adding weight to Mole’s bullish SPX scenario.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if overhead gap fills, bail.
    that overhead blue line will put up a fight.
    he he.

  • ridingwaves

    I read something this weekend where it looks like Brazil is rebounding economically wise faster than predicted….good luck with your entry….I might join you….

  • AcoBrasil

    The economic trends have been very sound since they ousted Dilma – improving legal environment, falling inflation, and a CB committed to steadily drop interest rates. The linger concerns are a big pension reform bill in the works – which Congress wants to water down, Brazil’s exposure to commodity markets, and the fact that EMs tend to magnify sell-offs in developing markets. Its already had a hell of a run too, which mostly accounts for the pullback.

    BRZU is the 3X ETF that I’m playing with right now.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reversed to long miners.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Billabong

    Hey …. you have a CL short signal and a rejection of the 25 EMA today. BTW, I’ve made way more R return on smaller positions. You take the signal , put a small position on and if it moves in your direction …. the rest is up to you. If you’ve been running these buy/sell signals, you know what will happen. The one you don’t take will be the one you should have taken…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    PERHAPS?? You should have signed up a year ago. The bigger issue however is your apparent trading addiction and lack of a system with clearly defined rules. You still believe that your ‘superior’ intellect may somehow help you beat the market. I strongly suggest that you pay very close attention later this week when Scott starts posting his series on system development. I think this will be a unique chance for you to completely abandon what you have been doing and follow a structured and rule based approach.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed. I’m offering a new version of Scalpius now which also has an integrated Capital Commitment Module. The idea is to keep drawdowns to a minimum, i.e. < 7% max.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oil and energy markets in general – cruel mistresses.

  • Yoda

    It would be more convincing with a + divergence at the bottom

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Intelligence has little to do with trading success. After all I don’t see many academics raking in big coin. The one exception perhaps are quants who work on strictly algo based systems and have a superior access to liquidity and speed within an institutional trading firm.

    Look at me – dumb as a brick but somehow able to squeeze out a consistent edge year after year. It’s all in the wrist 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s your problem – you’re too smart. I’m serious actually. Smart people often trip over their own intelligence as they seek out complexity and have a tendency to over think their discretionary campaigns. A very simplistic dumbed down approach would actually help you immensely.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reversed back to short.

  • kudra

    Will do. Thank you. just need to rip the bandaids off these last boo boos, regroup (again), and start from scratch. Eyeing your Gold membership. $49 a month. I don’t think I need the zero ($59) or even understand it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, who follows the law anymore these days anyway…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed – but the Mole signals helped a little.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    fight the trend
    *face palm*

    don’t even try (long), until ’30’. IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d884bd38ff7b4cbc9616a99d882200619722ca099485d8ef1f9b98ef282ecf58.png

  • ridingwaves

    short float is not high (2 days to cover) but they are scrambling right now…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Flat

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I agree that the one I didn’t take will probably run but that short signal on /CL is still sitting on the pot and doing nothing.

    I also agree that I can make more gains in the long run with relatively smaller positions because of being able to use wider stops etc. Ironically it is because of this reason I’ve been able to recoup about 1/2 of my net drawdown that occurred during the first 8 weeks of the year over last week and today. Most of my recent gains have come from the miners, along with some coming from Nat Gas and Silver. I damn sure won’t “bet the deed to the ranch” on 3X’s but a little can go a long way with these things. :)

  • ridingwaves

    can we call it the Forrest Gump approach for short…
    He gave me permission since he is the gifted sibling in the family….

    my surgeon said my brain was full of rock, I told him this is what happens when your a Zeppelin-Who-Stones-Sabbath fan….

  • ridingwaves

    lately nobody, which makes me look like Forrest Gumps brother….ohh I forgot I am the challenged sibling…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Went home with a small long miners.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I almost took a stab myself but decided to look more for a short op. Looks prime for a bounce tho.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    When you go long GLD/ miners, better to wait for 3-5 days+ of decreasing volatility in a tight range. Too hard when it is moving fast. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f8b2f315077474d70e1da70a94081a988d6fe26d670edc272ed08517a262dc6.png

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    green boxes. But you will be out of the market on this stuff most of the time (only 3-4 signals in the past yr) but it has been a v good signal. I didn’t wait for things to tighten up in mid Dec and got burned on FOMC day but then it consolidated and made the recent big move up.

  • Scott Phillips

    Not everyone is meant to trade :-)

    A membership to ES (though I would recommend it) isn’t going to help you become profitable.

    Once, I was in the depths of crystal meth addiction and refused to admit it.

    Someone asked me to do an experiment. If you aren’t addicted, just stop for a while.

    ANYTHING which you feel very strongly about not stopping has the character of addiction. It is very clear from the cheap seats that you are intentionally losing all your money, so you can stop, and the pain will be over.

    Most likely you have traumatised yourself through 9 years of bad trading, and have a degree of PTSD analogue from it.

    Give it up, it’s a difficult roe to hoe for all of us.

  • Scott Phillips

    I’d be extremely surprised if Crude doesn’t go on an extended run very very soon. It has been an epic 10 round prize fight between the sheiks and the shales…. both sides are near exhausted and one will fall over eventually.

    When that happens (outcome unknown) the remaining side will kick the fallen body of the defeated into a bloody pulp.

  • Scott Phillips

    Another way of saying “contrarian” is “I’m way smarter than all you motherfuckers and watch me prove it”.

    They tested Einstein’s IQ, and he wasn’t smart by theoretical physicist standards (though still a genius). He was SMART ENOUGH to understand physics.

    Traders can be smart or dumb, but they just have to be smart enough to understand markets and crowd psychology. It’s a pretty low threshold.

  • kudra

    It may have been an ego thing to a degree, but I think my contrarianism was fueled more by my pessimism.

  • Scott Phillips

    There is a thing in Japan called “the wisdom of the 5 whys”

    When you come to the obvious answer, keep asking why until you get to the real WHY.

    I’m short and fighting the market?
    WHY?

    because I want to be right
    WHY?

    Because my ego gets a boost from it
    WHY?

    Because my ego needs a boost
    WHY?

    Because my self esteem is low and I am acting out my issues through the markets, which is an expensive place to do it.

    Dr Scott, at your service 😉

  • kudra

    That is spot on. The same reasoning applies to my reluctance to take small losses when trades have empirically soured – acting out self-esteem issues. I do suffer from low self-esteem, which hasn’t been helped over the past 9 years faced with gut wrenching financial and social humiliation. I always knew ego was the undoing of many a would-be trader, but I hadn’t considered it in the way you presented. Helpful. Thank you.

  • kudra

    Too smart is highly debatable, but I have definitely overthought many a discretionary campaign. I’ve been overthinking most of my life. It can be debilitating.

    I play five minute a side online chess to help hone decisiveness.

  • kudra

    Don’t use the market to remedy a self-esteem deficit.

    ^^^ a pearl from Scott

  • Dyellowflash

    Good chart. But i will probably continue to short gold on Wed. Expecting a bounce on Tue.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Oh wow… looks like a trend break there, there may be hope after all.

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m not bashing you mate. Honestly do an experiment, clear all your positions for one day, and if you don’t feel better buy them back at the following close. It won’t cost you much if anything, and you get to experience what it’s like being out of a trade rather than in. We all get used to the crushing weight of market pressure, sometimes it’s nice to just relax for a bit.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, pretty damm capital efficient :)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    yeh Im looking for a bounce to 119 ish to reshort.

  • topedge
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I was reminded recently of the Turtle Trading System, and I thought about you on your path to blowing up. Many here have counseled you to stop, and to do the hard work required to develop a system that will work for you. I don’t know if it will do any good, but the Original Turtles have published their system. Perhaps seeing the rules of a system will start you on a path to success. Here’s the site:
    http://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/

    On the site is a PDF of the rules, along with useful discussion of them.
    http://www.tradingblox.com/originalturtles/originalturtlerules.htm

    Your mileage may vary…

  • Dyellowflash

    I waited for the whole pm (Asia Time) but no bounce yet. I might enter with a tight stop anyway. Made almost 4k shorting from 1246-49s down to the 23s, so don’t mind entering more shorts as long as the yellow arrow is not busted. I still have a tracer from 1234.56! See if it can go to 600s! =) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a5b1304657b24630d3271267f113314244e80a45eb83d14c2d3714ad1b8d825.png

  • AcoBrasil

    Closed at 2.64. You’re a magician.

  • Dyellowflash

    current price is 1219.5, i shorted today at 1224-5. Target is 1212+ b4 a potential bounce. But i wont know for certain until it happens. Could be tmr. Lol…