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Sensing A Trap
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Sensing A Trap

by The MoleJune 23, 2017

Catching entries and holding them for more than a day or two has been increasingly difficult lately, in particular since the beginning of June. Not only are we in a seasonally bearish period during what still continues to be a late stage bull market (until proven wrong), but intra-day volatility also appears to be in a cycle of expansion. Originally this post was supposed to feature an early summer lottery ticket but upon further consideration I had to (once again – yes) err on the cautious side. Call me a chicken but I think a more conservative approach has kept us out of a lot of trouble recently.


2017-06-22_Zero

Let’s start with the Zero which shows us very little participation during yesterday’s sell off. The signal range is tiny on both the early morning ramp and the late session sell off which effectively go us nowhere.

2017-06-23_ES

Of course the current formation in the E-Mini is extremely tough to pass up and even though it is Friday I may have been tempted to drop a teeny-weeny position into my early summer lottery ticket. But it is not to be…

2017-06-23_NQ_update

For what irks me the most right now about equities are the ongoing divergences between our three main indices. Here’s the NQ which is suddenly showing signs of life and its own juicy looking formation after lagging the other two all week.

2017-06-23_YM_update

However what ruins the party for me is the YM which used to be the most bullish of the bunch until most recently and is suddenly in sell off mode.

Bottom Line

Nothing makes sense right now in equities and once again I’ll have to say no to what otherwise looks like a great entry. Given the ongoing divergences across our three indices and the current level of intra-day volatility it’s quite possible that we are witnessing distribution across the board.

There are however two setups I am very much interested in:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • OJuice

    I had a couple of small but decent trades on /ES last week. This week, starting on Tuesday, I have had 0. Such a chopfest.

    I’m rooting for your /GC and /SI entries. I didn’t manage to get into either yet. And if things carry on the way they are going, they might be ripe for a nice rip sometime next week.

  • ridingwaves

    Traps sometimes have to sit empty for long time frames before anything is caught…

    bio sector is the play right now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It’s a trap alright.
    http://memeguy.com/photos/thumbs/i-wouldnt-mind-falling-in-this-trap-xpost-rstarwars-165242.jpg

    As for the zero, the range is key. It almost needs an indicator to warn “hey guys, range is small, don’t focus too hard”. But that’s just me.

    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    nice costume….
    earthlings, they just don’t get it

  • Mark Shinnick

    BDSI couldn’t achieve a 310 objective on the first try… everything there look ok to you?

  • ZigZag

    9.97 vix.

  • ridingwaves

    yes, looks like accumulation….rec’d canada approval today… it gets over that 3.20 area and blue skies….just working off overbought for next move…

  • ridingwaves

    the CYTR shorts are a pretty powerful lot, chart looks great but it seems to be held back for accumulation…should have run after finding .75 today
    but not so….
    JUNO is taking off, I got in this AM on bear bash back where they stopped me out before…PNF chart has 37..resistance at 31

  • ridingwaves

    well, thought it’s dead in here, damn summer doldrums…
    my playground is on fire……

    JUNO…you go boy…….
    CALA entry was scrumptious….

    does anyone play symbols here outside of Greenlander?

  • ZigZag
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What do you think they put into those macrobiotic mystery burgers?

  • JH

    some seasonality reinforcement for the NQ dip buyers