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Sentiment Update 6.23.11
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Sentiment Update 6.23.11

by MoleJune 23, 2011

The good news is that the leaches get a little treat, but the better news is that I (volar) have even more new charts for the rats. Obviously I have been long since my last post at roughly speaking 1265 (ESU11) 6/15/11. I added some longs this morning an hour into it. If I get stopped out 30 points below here that is life- no ego here, just a trade.

For the leaches:

And for the rats, here is the quality hooch again.

[amprotect=nonmember]More of Volar’s charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Well you can see why I am so very patient and keep deep stops. I am not picky about my entries; I am picky about my stops and my profit targets. We obviously had a panic day, and I got long on that day. Of course a JLL quote:

“The big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.  The market does not beat them.  They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.”

Word. Word. And Word.

Now just to show you that economic data, news, and Greece really “matter,” the Citi economic surprise index:

Now I know this seems “shocking,” but honestly if you study crowd theory, this  makes perfect sense. And per the usual, what is the ROC (rate of change in that index)? Well CSFB already did that:

It is clear that we just had a major shift, and the odds of economic forecast “misses” are quite low.

Now here is a quick blip on money flow.

All this news is scaring the retail retards…… Sure does not look like the distribution back in 2007 to me.

Now I have historically tracked RYDEX mutual fund asset flows, but ETFs have taken over that market. So here is the money flow into Rydex ETFs.

It appears that some money was pulled from the bull funds and placed into the bear funds.

And here is the high beta ETF (Rydex small cap & growth) assets to further support that statement.

This just goes to show that we had some money leave risky assets.

Now on to sentiment surveys.

Scott and sentimenttrader both have touched on small trader option activity. I have only 2 years of that data… still digging for it and will pay for it when I find it.  It is weekly data from the OCC (aka all exchanges). The data is unique as it is not all transactions, but only the open- to- buy and open- to- sell transactions (a better gauge of sentiment). The ISEE does the same math, but only for the buy to open, not the sell to open.

Here are two different ways of looking at that data.

First the net volume, not the ratio.

Clearly retail is buying puts.

And here is that ratio including open to sell transactions.

This also shows that it is not just the put buying, but lack of put selling.

And just to beat a dead horse… here is the VIX Put/Call Ratio

As a contrarian, when I see people buying calls on the VIX, I get bullish.

As for the surveys, well not much has changed, most are bearish.

Traders are still bearish, the media is emotional, and I am just trading my rules. Even if we are in a bear market my rules say to buy, so I am long.

That being said the Daily Nasdaq Sentiment Index is utterly bullish; as is the option buyer’s sentiment gauge  (descriptions and details at Market Harmonics)

Finally I will end with some more stats from last night’s quant post. I re-imported the data to ensure it was correct, and I changed the holding period to 10 trading days. I excluded data pre-1990 as I don’t trust that VIX (VIX 100 specifically) data very much.

The drawdown is the max intra-week loss for 150 days added to the max peak to trough loss to conservatively estimate a drawdown. Or realistically one would expect 7-20% with 0 stops in place.

Best  of luck trading,

-Volar

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About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • bisq

    Niiiiiice…

  • bisq

    Niiiiiice…

  • Anonymous

    having intermittent reload problems all day, for the blog and the zero

    Is it me?

  • Anonymous

    having intermittent reload problems all day, for the blog and the zero

    Is it me?

  • volar

    me too

  • volar

    me too

  • Anonymous

    Man, you have one Serious Stable of Stats Mr. V.  

    I like the way you trade your system and stick to it because it has been a successful way of trading for you.  

    I believe that the Key to any method is that whatever method is used, it has to fit the trader’s personality.   I remember hating Statistics in Grad School.  As a matter of fact, I had a few Quant friends who would help me get through these types of courses and I in turn would help them with the so-called “touchy feely” courses which they hated.   🙂

    In months past, I would be Balls to the Wall Short right now and vulnerable to yet another massive short squeeze.  But instead as of this moment, I’m neutral with a slight positive gamma skew.  But since Monday, I booked 3 Wins, 1 Minor Loss and 1 BE.  I feel good because I believe that I traded correctly going from net short, to net long, to net short to neutral since Monday. 

    BTW, I’m Neutral at this moment mostly because of your Statistics and what I’ve learned from Mole, Scott and mostly everyone on this board. 

    Now depending upon how we close, I might tweak a little because if we close at present levels, my rules will tell me that I need to be short.  However, I too am very leery of EQQ Dressing.   So if I do edge a little to the short side, I’ll do in such a way that I don’t violate my own rules while respecting the information that you have provided.        

  • Anonymous

    Man, you have one Serious Stable of Stats Mr. V.  

    I like the way you trade your system and stick to it because it has been a successful way of trading for you.  

    I believe that the Key to any method is that whatever method is used, it has to fit the trader’s personality.   I remember hating Statistics in Grad School.  As a matter of fact, I had a few Quant friends who would help me get through these types of courses and I in turn would help them with the so-called “touchy feely” courses which they hated.   🙂

    In months past, I would be Balls to the Wall Short right now and vulnerable to yet another massive short squeeze.  But instead as of this moment, I’m neutral with a slight positive gamma skew.  But since Monday, I booked 3 Wins, 1 Minor Loss and 1 BE.  I feel good because I believe that I traded correctly going from net short, to net long, to net short to neutral since Monday. 

    BTW, I’m Neutral at this moment mostly because of your Statistics and what I’ve learned from Mole, Scott and mostly everyone on this board. 

    Now depending upon how we close, I might tweak a little because if we close at present levels, my rules will tell me that I need to be short.  However, I too am very leery of EQQ Dressing.   So if I do edge a little to the short side, I’ll do in such a way that I don’t violate my own rules while respecting the information that you have provided.        

  • Anonymous

    Nice Volar!
    FWIW From June 1st to now I see the front 1/2 of a cup forming w/ some noise.  If we go much lower this would get violated.

  • Anonymous

    Nice Volar!
    FWIW From June 1st to now I see the front 1/2 of a cup forming w/ some noise.  If we go much lower this would get violated.

  • Anonymous

    2:55 Spike in ES Futures  Bam!

  • Anonymous

    2:55 Spike in ES Futures  Bam!

  • Anonymous

    WTF, some bot just went bezerk across all asset classes.

  • Anonymous

    WTF, some bot just went bezerk across all asset classes.

  • Anonymous

    Gamma is pushing me more Delta Positive.  These guys are good.  

  • Anonymous

    Gamma is pushing me more Delta Positive.  These guys are good.  

  • Keyser Soze

    Greece news..

  • Keyser Soze

    Greece news..

  • Anonymous

    Nice, low vol and another greece bailout rumor.

  • Anonymous

    Nice, low vol and another greece bailout rumor.

  • volar

    So guess on volume today?

    I call 3.45MM on SEP emini and

    400K on SEP NQ

    I wish i could do 35K cars in 1 minute….

  • volar

    So guess on volume today?

    I call 3.45MM on SEP emini and

    400K on SEP NQ

    I wish i could do 35K cars in 1 minute….

  • Anonymous

    Convict scott 
    could be fakeout buys in gold &  silver on the 120 min charts, just triggered on current candle

  • Anonymous

    Convict scott 
    could be fakeout buys in gold &  silver on the 120 min charts, just triggered on current candle

  • volar

    KEEP IN MIND

    how many shorts were in the naz on the 31st of lasts month!!!!

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/5a364045-1cca-4cf5-9998-7085e2ac2c95/2011-06-23_1321.png

     

  • volar

    KEEP IN MIND

    how many shorts were in the naz on the 31st of lasts month!!!!

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/5a364045-1cca-4cf5-9998-7085e2ac2c95/2011-06-23_1321.png

     

  • Anonymous

    seriously? 🙂

    that was wild, looks like they instaled “the greece news” button to their keyboards

    i faded it, a bit premature, might be.

  • Anonymous

    seriously? 🙂

    that was wild, looks like they instaled “the greece news” button to their keyboards

    i faded it, a bit premature, might be.

  • Anonymous

    short squeeze ahead?

  • Anonymous

    short squeeze ahead?

  • volar

    i would imagine at some point.. at least my account is betting that way…

  • volar

    i would imagine at some point.. at least my account is betting that way…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Volar – you are on fucking fire here – loving it.

    BTW, everyone else – I’m not on a beach or anything. Have been coding a new/improved test procedure for HelterSkelter, so I’m glad Volar is picking up the slack here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Volar – you are on fucking fire here – loving it.

    BTW, everyone else – I’m not on a beach or anything. Have been coding a new/improved test procedure for HelterSkelter, so I’m glad Volar is picking up the slack here.

  • Anonymous

    Mole – love your comment on the Zero page.

  • Anonymous

    Mole – love your comment on the Zero page.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know about the ES Volume other than the Spikes that began at 2:55 PM but Greece or no Greece, it is what it is.  

    I’m so glad that I decided to wait to see how we closed before tweaking.   My Gamma is really pushing me net Long Right now and my own Rules are back to being Long so there’s no conflict and it’s all good.One thing I do know is that it feels good to still be a Bear at heart and yet be able to laugh at what went on today instead of just bitching and moaning about it.  I can’t believe I’m actually smiling at the frigging computer right now.  LMAO

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know about the ES Volume other than the Spikes that began at 2:55 PM but Greece or no Greece, it is what it is.  

    I’m so glad that I decided to wait to see how we closed before tweaking.   My Gamma is really pushing me net Long Right now and my own Rules are back to being Long so there’s no conflict and it’s all good.One thing I do know is that it feels good to still be a Bear at heart and yet be able to laugh at what went on today instead of just bitching and moaning about it.  I can’t believe I’m actually smiling at the frigging computer right now.  LMAO

  • Anonymous

    hehe. 🙂

  • omelette

    volar, just to be clear are your avg ES point numbers per contract? Also if you have a chance could you detail a little bit of your thought process when setting targets/stops? That is definitely my weakest area (especially targets) so any outside ideas are appreciated.

  • volar

    exactly! i hate this POS, but all be damned if the boys get my coin! 

  • volar

    Cheers,

    But outcomes are irrelevant… could have easily been stopped out this am with a 2N loss  and had to get long again (which is mentally hard to do)

    I hate to bottom picking as the trades are hard to take and the losses emotionally hurt… but i get used to loosing money after a while. And i kick my self in the nuts every time i dont buy a panic day with all of my buy signals

  • Anonymous

    NQ just bouncing off the EMA20 on 5 min, making higher lows. I will have to close my fade trade soon, if it doesn’t go through that EMA20 very soon.

  • volar

    I got long on the 15th at 1265.25 (average fill)

    I got long this am at 2203 even (average fill)  on the NQ

    My profit target depends on sentiment over the next few weeks. IF something smells fishy I will take profit btwn the 50 and 61.8 retrace on SPX

    my stop is based 30 points deep so 1230 on the SEP emini

    All that being said omelette, I plan on holding this trade for at least 2-5 weeks, unless something fishy occurs.

  • Anonymous

    So now you are over 2N Long?

  • Schwerepunkt

    This entire move is fishy!

  • omelette

     is 30 points just a standard stop for your swing trades or is it based on something more?

  • tradingmom

    Ugh, computer/zero troubles again!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We’re just rolling with the punches – no need to buy into all the drama that comes with it.

  • Anonymous

    I was just on another site and they were talking about how it’s all over CNBC a/k/a, Hee Haw that this rally is all about Greece. (I refuse to put CNBC on because I think it’s poison).

    However, just think about the absurdity of this.  It’s all about Greece?  Give me a fucking break.   In great part due to our Banker/Political Partnership, America looks like it’s heading back to the 1930’s all while the Stock Market Thrives.

    Yep, it’s all about Greece alright.   🙁

  • volar

    no 30 points is the most the S&P generally falls and it is at a critical support level. If we break that level (legitimately) we would have a lower low and that changes the game
     

  • volar

    not if you read my last 8-15 posts… actually it is quite textbook to my trading style. volume looks to hit my target of 3.4 today.

    retail retard are panicking, who do you think takes the other side of their trades YEAR in and YEAR out?

    Shorts are amok and put volume is insane?

    A perfect reason to go long if you ask me
     

  • Schwerepunkt

    I hear ya, it’s just the idiocy of how this market trades. Just think, had they waited one more day to make the Greece announcement, your stop might have been hit and then the elevator ride to the top floor would have started. I was looking for support in the 1205-1233 area on ES. 1233 is 10% correction from the April top and 1205 was the completion of ABC down.

  • Anonymous

    It’s not your computer.  It’s ES.

  • Anonymous

    MMs are trying their best to keep all indexes above the 200.  Bounced off it today.  NYA got back above too.

  • volar

    I hear ya, but my rules are if i have buys signals and not a lower low or lower high, I must buy panic. Also 2 30 point downdays in a row is 200SMA.  I win less than I lose but my payoffs are generally 1- 4R, so i dont care if i lose. I care if I dont follow my system

  • Schwerepunkt

    Great trading! Do your rules reverse if we’re <200SMA?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think you should post more charts – this barely tells the story (j/k)

    “It appears that some money was pulled from the bull funds and placed into the bear funds.”

    Yeah, the RRs usually trade yesterday’s market – which works for a while until it doesn’t and gets really painful.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not me this time!

  • volar

    yes and no…. but the probability of almost all my signals goes to crap. So ya if we are in a bear market i would not buy unless we have a way more volume than this

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh, he’s doing just fine now – that was a great spike. 

  • volar

    I have 1.5N based on my swing trade. and 0.5N based on that probability quant thing/weekly down 7 weeks.

    so  yes 2N long with 1N in the NQ

  • volar

    almost 3.4MM in ES volume – damn 😉

    oh but NQ beat my estimate

    so net net volume was high as expected

  • Anonymous

    We’re cool here. I was just curious.

    “I was long 1.5N/unit since WED at about 1265. I have a 30 point stop. yI also had 0.5N/unit long based on the weekly probability that we close higher. I was 9 points from being stopped out on that trade. I was filled at 1269ish on that trade Late friday afternoon.So I am effectively long 2N. I will exit 0.5N depending on the weekly close and the math my stats spit out.” –http://evilspeculator.com/?p=22064#comment-228112826

  • Anonymous

    Mole – please update the DZ.  I think you missed yesterday.

  • volar

    You are correct , and obviously totally cool here too 🙂

    2N effectively in the S&P and 1N in the NQ

    so 3N aggregate. I never do more than 4 tho

    i think my typing is going to fast, sometimes a poor communicator

    EDIT: and to make things more complicated I was long Mole’s trade ideas (1N) and i covered them yesterday. and the weekly expired (at par/slight loss) and I reentered that trade this week along with the vix down spx down thing.

    So after double checking my numbers, I am about 2.475N Long stocks in general.

    And as you know loosing at that in the my nov/dec soy/corn spread (1N); well it was flat on the day, but still not happy about that

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • tradingmom

    Check out the hourly SPX chart.  A few of us have been focusing on that megaphone/expanding triangle thingy until the breakout.  Well, look where things fell apart, and where we ended today.  I find that sort of thing fascinating. 
    http://screencast.com/t/RJlg0gikI

  • Anonymous

    I quote the Fly “Greece hasnt been relevant since Alexander the fucking great!”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m running an optimization right now – sorry, will have to wait until tomorrow.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So, what’s the ‘news’ in Greece? Budget deficits and IMF bailout drama? Really? I had no idea! That surely came out of nowhere…

    (I think I hit my sarcasm limit just now)

  • Anonymous

    Volar I’d appreciate your take on this, particularly the CAD which seems extreme sentiment wise

    http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/FXCMSSSI06232011.pdf

  • volar
  • Anonymous

    Can we get a little more interpretation :-))))

  • volar

    I would say  bunch of bears showed up in those markets, so i guess whenever you see a technical reason to trade to the long side, it could be a nice trade

    I have mixed feelings on both as the trend is down, but the volume spikes appear to be bullish if you ask me for the Short-term

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/65a3f037-5cd3-41ff-8efa-08e6035245e6/2011-06-23_1624.png

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/b0ed5811-9e1f-46b6-9771-8e8b657fe6d4/2011-06-23_1627.png

  • Anonymous

    Volar,
    FWIW…Terry Laundry sees a S&P
    500 low around 1205, the 70 week MA as critical support/resistance.
     

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No clear edge in USD/CAD right now – I would not take a position right now. Could go sideways for a while.

  • Anonymous

    That was my take on it too, but the sentiment picture is so radical I needed a second opinion

  • volar

    Interesting- anything is possible. I cant say I ever use an MA for a single thing other than a code for backtesing an algo (it tells me nothing about buying and selling).  Its like the “death cross” BS…. if one backtests it they will find that it has a negative expectancy. To me support and resistance are defined by volume and price action, not MAs.

    Also I cant say I ever listen to anyone’s “predictions.” Actually 3 of my sentiment surveys do the exact opposite of “analysts” predictions. Consensus, Hulbert, Investors Intelligence, NAAIM, all read what people say to do or are doing… and tell you to do the opposite. Or in other words, have Mr. Terry give me a reason and a probability and and expected outcome and I will gladly listen… As for the 1205, could happen but, as long as the market continues to panic and  volume continues to rise I trust what i am doing.

    I only know of one other blog being bullish… and go figure it is a sentiment blog… 

  • Anonymous

    Having issues with TOS streaming, anyone else having similar problems?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, I may be wrong on this one, it would be better if the sentiment data was backed up by my momentum measures.

  • Anonymous

    Keeping it simple myself. Daily chart. All I see is higher lows and higher highs. Works for me. I will stay long USD/CAD unless that trend changes. Also have bigger fish to fry Aussie.

  • Anonymous

    momentum measures?  Can you post a chart for the subs pls.?

  • Anonymous

    last time usgov released strategic oil reserves, oil long specs got burned, leading to liquidation of profitable positions to cover margin calls. Wash, rince, repeat

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    today was epic. was it not?

    i’m surprised the fib fan is still reigning, so far from May 1.
    http://tinypic.com/r/30hq5v7/7

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s my super private stuff, sorry mate. How do you think I pick those symbols every once in a while? 😉

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    If you pull up a daily chart with no indicators… its going up, but in a choppy sloppy fashion, not blasting ahead into outer space. On stoch’s macd oscillators, anything really, this will show up as a negative divergence

  • raised_by_wolves

    Alright folks, I’m moving toward longer trades. This silver inside period set up is based on the the OptX time period, meaning that candles close on 3rd Fridays.

    Check. This. Out.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/86490f2d-eef8-471b-b2f5-11d9d6fc58eb/00003462.png

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    Better like me. I liked you 😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Now that’s deserving of a like.  Keep us posted on this trade.

  • Schwerepunkt

    A little [more] spooge on the spoos today. maybe 1233 or better yet 1205 does get hit next week? I’m not expecting a change in trend until late August — just like last summer. Pattern is pretty much consistent: sell in May and go away.

  • volar

    other than JUL was a positive month the past two years and AUG not so…

    i would say the odds of JUL being higher and AUG being lower  is more probable

    Not saying you could not be correct, but odds favor the opposite

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/baf57ac5-269f-4be8-8d52-e9215984bc3d/2011-06-24_0818.png

  • tradingmom

    On the rough hourly zero, the bottom one, project out the trendline that Mole drew in above…you’ll see what I’mgetting at.

  • Anonymous

    Waiting for the government troops to come back into play but I booked profit on yesterday’s Short SPY Puts right after the open this morning. I also added some Short SSO.  So I’m back Net Short Again.  If I can see any Troops on the Horizon, I’ll add a new Bull Put Spread to knock down my Negative Delta.

    I’ve changed sides this week more than a double agent but I’m also having a little fun doing it.  🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    I was looking at a longterm chart; a little hard to pinpoint dates. But I agree, we bottomed in late June, rallied in July, sideways/consolidation in August then up, up, up through February of this year. 

  • tradingmom

    on the 5 min zero there is a downtrend line, connect the last three lows, you’ll see that’s where we bounced.

  • Anonymous

    I agree if no other reason than lower volume. July is big time vacation time into early Aug. The big players don’t generally show up until after labor day.

    Low volume generally means (nowadays) higher price. Just look at every holiday period over the last 3 years.

  • Anonymous

    I’m trying to ignore anything that has worked itself out in the past. With HFT QE1-2 et cetera, it’s illogical to believe we’re playing in the same market.

  • Anonymous

    Grabbing some more SSO longs for another ride to 1,300+. Slowly getting my head back in the game, I think. 😉

  • tradingmom

    I must confess that I haven’t read everything from Volar yet — my “real life” has been a little busy.  (I think this info is fantastic though and I will read it over the weekend!) But, I am a believer that the market has a “memory” attached to certain days, you can call it seasonality, or whatever you want.  Anyway, last year, I’m pretty sure there was a giant up day right around the 4th of July, maybe the first trading day after the holiday, and then about 5% up in the week.  FWIW.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Gladly. Even though that OptX set up hasn’t triggered yet, I have been short SLV thanks on the 4 hour timeframe. There is potential for being able to roll that trade into the OptX one. However, that might not happen with silver being stubbornly strong at -1% relative to gold -0.8% and SPX at -0.6%. There’s some support here, and it’s expiration of course.

  • tradingmom

    I need to keep reminding myself that the signal needs the candle to complete in order to be valid.  I hold a piece of thin paper up to the hourly zero (rough) and while earlier the signal appeared to break through the trendline, as of now (10:40 eastern) the signal strength has lessened and the trendline is holding.  I think that if this candle completes and the trendline holds we will be in for a big rally — but a lot can change in 20 min, and I won’t be home for the next two hours (and I’m woefully untechnical, no good phone/laptop,etc.)

  • volar
  • volar

    here ya… i think AUG could be very ugly. If we are in a bear market (give or take 50% odds) AUG is a pooor month

  • Anonymous

    Well I’m not so sure that you want to ignore every thing in the past.  One reason is that IMO there has been a very clear attempt to save the Stock Market at all costs.

    That being said, where I now separate myself from the past is that I’m going to try as hard as I can to only trade the tape that is directly in front of me because that’s all I can be reasonably sure of what I’m seeing.  When I get in the prediction business, I lose.  

    I also think that everyone has to follow their own system and mine has me short right now.   This could change in a heartbeat because I’m not married to any position.   Marriage is great but not for the Stock Market.  🙂  

  • volar

    cheers. I view a stop loss as a nice pre-nub 😉

  • Anonymous

    Well…I don’t know about the marriage part, but I agree with the rest of your statement.

  • omelette

     there’s a nice divergence forming on the lite to back up your idea.

  • Anonymous

    Good thought there! I wouldn’t marry any woman that wuld have me as a husband

  • volar

    Scotty, wish you were here, have some great wyckoff questions on the tape today

  • Anonymous

    If we have a huge rally today I will be very surprised.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Anonymous

    some pretty strong FX headwinds for the markets today.

  • Anonymous

    What a grind-fest. I think it’s a sit on hands day until 1 hr or so before the close; or the next bail-out announcement.

    Event the standard pre-lunch; europe close push is weak;

  • Anonymous

    Bots look to be back on.

  • Anonymous

    Looking at SPX daily, the 200 ma has been tagged twice and has held. IMO we see 1320 next week.

  • Anonymous

    we might get another shakeout today first. price action looks kinda ill and there are some headwinds from the FX territory.

  • Anonymous

    Once again discretion being the better part of Valor, I just put on a new Bull Put Credit Spread on SPY in order to cut my negative Delta in Half.   So I’m still net short but not as much.   The market is floundering around right now so I’ll err on the side of caution. 

    There was also a 17% increase in the amount of the Credit by doing it now as opposed to the Market Open because of the difference in the VIX and subsequent change in IV.  

  • Anonymous

    Yeah, not to mention spreads usually suck at the open.

  • Anonymous

    Indexes today could set up as nice inside day.  Wait for the break next week.

  • Anonymous

     Just a heads up – DTG looks like a good scalp… been riding a trend up for the past 10 days and looking to fill a gap.

  • Anonymous

    I’m a little off today, but did anyone mention the near perfect uptrend line on 5minES chart?  …Connecting 4 higher lows over the past 2 days.  THAT’S the line to watch, IMHO.

  • Anonymous

    Financials really need to go up to support the rest.  Talk about a divergence.

  • tradingmom

    I’m back for a few minutes.  So far, it looks like the trendline on the hourly zero (rough) is holding, but I could see where the current hourly candle (12-1 pm eastern) could break down and turn the signal back down, which would break the line. Also, the SPX hourly chart does have that look of forming a bear flag, although there is a bit of a triangle thing going on there too.  Also RBW pointed out the trendline on the 5 min ES, which is the same trendline in the mini hourly triangle…basically they all say the same thing, we’re on the edge right here.  It wouldn’t take much to go over it. 

  • Anonymous

    Here we go again with Down Volume over Up Volume at the strongest levels of the day.  

    Watching the Lower 100BB  1268.05 on SPX if that breaks?   1240.92 Lower 25BB ?  100BB’s are tightening.

    Or do we get another Afternoon Stick Save?

  • volar

     Up Vol – Down Vol has gone strait down all day 45 degrees  but TICK has not made any lower lows all day

  • Anonymous

    It’s stealth selling IMHO and the sellers know what they are doing. They don’t want to scare all the dip buyers away and they are careful to not to breach support levels.

  • Anonymous

    I think you are right.  Also the ES made a serious attempt at reaching VWAP on the 5 Minute with the 11:45 Candle.  And as of 1:20 PM, it’s been a series of lower highs and lower lows ever since.

  • Anonymous

    For some reason, I have a tough time reading TICK.  But I think I have a decent feel for Up Vol – Down Vol.  

    I still have my ear to the ground to see if I can hear any horses coming.  They might be on their way but I can’t hear them yet.  🙂

  • Anonymous

    I can hear a little vibration on the ground now.   🙂

  • Anonymous

    This bounce won’t hold

  • Anonymous

    Came close to VWAP and backed off again.  Also 10 Year is at LOD

  • volar

    hehe

  • volar

    why not?

    Not that i dont agree with you, but a logical explanation would be useful

  • volar

    10yr taking out the 61.8 FWIW

  • Anonymous

    Sorry for the delay, I have been following the MEJT stystem.. where price action  (on the SPX, only) at certain times of the day can be  predictive regarding future support and resistance levels. The MEJT said that any move after 1:20 would not stick.

    http://www.amazon.com/MEJT-System-Tool-Trading-Index/dp/0857190350

    But we should see SPX 1277.02 later, maybe in next day or so if not today

  • tradingmom

    Crazy uptick on SPY now!

  • tradingmom

    Triangle on 5 min zero now (2:44 eastern)

  • Anonymous

    textbook NQ price action, making lower highs, bouncing off the EMA20 on 5 min.

    i went short – this is a high probability play. and placing the stop is also quite easy.

  • tradingmom

    5 min zero triangle looks to be breaking up, implications are for larger up move to start here?  So, with declining vega issues we’ve discussed, not to mention upcoming long weekend theta burn, what’s the best way to play this from the long side?  straight etf? Leveraged etf? I have a few OTM SPY July calls, (the regular monthlies) but they have some “greek” issues, just like the markets do.  Opinions?

  • Anonymous

    what’s the hurry to play this from the long side today?

  • Anonymous

    Good question…whenever I’m in a hurry to make a play is usually when I make mistakes.   I’ve got a little longside FAS, waiting for better clearer Zero and market moves

    Betting big right now is betting BLACK or RED…take your pick.

  • Anonymous

    exactly.

  • tradingmom

    Good point.  I do like to have my plan ready though. 

  • omelette
  • Anonymous

    The plan is: keep watching.  I am much more patient these day and don’t freak out if I miss something.  I always used to NOT want to miss anything, so I always had a bet going….that made me lose money.  Now, I’m learning the Zero and picking plays…BUT, things are kinda wacko today, and there seems to be a big triangle building that we BOTH want to play….sit tight and watch (and learn, like me…I’m still in 1st grade on this stuff)

  • Anonymous

    Roulette’s my game…..Loser is my name

  • Anonymous

    load up NQ 5 min chart with EMA20 and take a look at this textbook price action. Lower highs,, bounce, touching EMA20, falling again and now it breached the support. very nice chart to play.

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  • raised_by_wolves

    Update: My inside OptX period short silver trade has been triggered.

  • raised_by_wolves
  • raised_by_wolves

    I’m playing this with July puts and will hedge with weeklies as appropriate with the goal of turning it into a risk-less trade.

    Here’s what it looks like presently in TOS Analyze (white line = current profit/loss; red line = profit/loss at expiration):

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/0464937c-43e9-4c88-8a2c-2c61c70f2340/00003474.png