Now Reading
Short Term Chart Roll Call
31

Short Term Chart Roll Call

by The MoleMay 19, 2011

I know – this tape feels boring but we are consolidating at the 1340 mark and that is not bearish. However, I also see issues with the long side. Continuing my new theme here’s a quick short term chart update before the close.

Two charts are of particular interest today – one on the FX and one on the equities side.
[amprotect=nonmember]
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,9,5,2]

EUR/USD: Chances are we are going to close above the NLBL today, which means we either to go 1.44 or perhaps even 1.48.

We are still ways away from closing above the NLBL on the spoos. But there is another consideration – even if we do there is a lot of resistance looming above and I don’t think it’s going to be easy pickings.

Remember this chart? There is simply too little volume around the recent highs to support a strong move to the upside. Again, I won’t discard the possibility altogether – after all the Bernanke put is looming ubiquitously. But I simply can’t get excited about taking on major positions on the equities side right now – the odds are not on our side, so outside my scalp/swing trades  I’m laying low.

Cheers,

Mole

[/amprotect]


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

     I’m glad you mentioned Volume.  Here we are with only one day left until Op EX after today and at 3:24 PM we have a whopping 99 Million Shares of SPY Traded and the already lowered daily average traded is 175 Million.

    This “market” is like “Dead Men Walking”.

    I don’t think they even have to run all the trading bots at the same time now.   

  • nyse

     What is the best long and short lengths to use in TOS to calc Historical Vol and Implied Vol? TIA

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Feels like an early summer holiday….

  • tradingmom

    Mole, thanks for the charts.  I see bear flags on the daily charts for lots of individual stocks.  Many things sold off hard and have rallied up on decreasing volume into resistance.  Look at AAPL — three days up on declining volume into the converging 20 and 50 DMAs.  It would take a lot to bust through I think.  I’m seeing this same set up in lots of stocks…CAT is another one. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

     roll call?

    Here sir!

  • Anonymous

     SPX’s today candle smells like a doji

  • tradingmom

    Tim Horton — THI, same bear flag on daily 

  • Anonymous

    Silver consolidating, coiling.  SLV has Max Pain at 38 and ZSL at 14 . . . Could be a trend up day manana or simply another day in irons
    Take a Look at the open interest of the puts vs calls on SLV look at 38 – 39 . . . like 5 to 1 puts to calls  MAX Pain is way up at 38 . . . Now trading at 34.14    ZSL max pain at 14
     Consolidating all day today . . . says to me we break out to the topside tomorrow. 

    Caveat Emptor  . . . .  I’ve seen similar set ups go to naught before . . . not a shoe in at all but it does say rally tomorrow.  

    we’ll see

  • tradingmom

    JPM — same bear flag daily 

  • tradingmom

    Of course, since these are “all the same trade” if it doesn’t work out and I take them all, I’m screwed. 

  • Anonymous

    ZFX euro – still surprised that the big spike has not played out better.  Mole, could this be from a new change?

  • Anonymous

    That’s not all it smells like.   

  • volar

    i know this is starting to feel like the summer… ugh

  • Anonymous

    Not anymore 

  • Anonymous

    It’s a good thing you didn’t step on it.    🙂 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t over-think it – sometimes those things are good for a big swing trade and sometimes they just fizzle out. You can’t expect each signal to turn into a big win – what’s more important is that it nailed the top and if you were long this was a good spot to get out.

  • Anonymous

    LOL! 

  • Anonymous

     Good point.  Thanks

  • Anonymous

     Well as Popeye The Sailor Man said “That’s all I can Stands – I can Stands no more” – at least for today.  
    About the only trade that’s currently working for me is my Puts on BAC.  If WFC breaks yesterday’s Low of $28.46, I’ll probably Short it again.   I have a slightly negative Delta on SPY and if the situation dictates, I’ll reverse and go Delta Positive.  This market really sucks and I should be sitting on the Sidelines.  But I’m a Stock Junkie so I’m in it but with very small positions.  The VIX looks like it wants to go back to the 14’s and if it does, Up, Up and Away the Casino will go. Where she Stops Nobody Knows.  Step right up Ladies and Gentlemen. . .        :)Catch Y’all Later

  • volar

    I like the evil button

  • Anonymous

    I was likely inspired by your Evil Inside Icon

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

     http://www.wokay.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Google-Evil.jpg

  • Anonymous

    Love It   l o l

    Turning the Corporate Symbols of Intel and Google into Evil icons is a nice segue into the number of the Beast

    6 6 6

    6 Which as I have learned in recent years is what a W looks like in the original Aramaic I believe . . .

    So WWW would be written as 666 in one of the original written tomes of the bible . . .

    Que Twilight Zone music

  • Anonymous

    Dt- bigger time frame. Zsl has a triangle on intranet day.
    Slv 15 min looked bearish to me. the churn today on weak
    dollar don’t mk sense to me. After hour a bit weak,
    contrary to past 2 days. Your thought?

  • Anonymous

    Euro is one.

  • http://profiles.google.com/acabrera768 andres cabrera

     I saw the same. The way I knew it was,or at least for now, it wasn’t a good play is because I wanted to gun it with a massive order. And that has given me more black eyes ,back in my early days of trading of course,that I care to count.  I just swing with the music I had a bad habit of thinking about to much too. And btw you guys are  great.

  • Anonymous

    I was watching looking at SLV it was coiling all day broke in last 30 minutes to the topside which means nothing but there was positive divergence with the RSI.  AS the Lower peaks in SLV 10 min chart corresponded with higher peaks in RSI.  I would do a chart but it’s pain to post.

    But yes it faded the Euro rally, so not good.  Because that could have a negative intermarket rachet affect if the Euro comes back down . . .

    When I put on my Diabolical Thinking Cap, manufactured at Goldman Sachs, the thought occurs to me to keep the Silver price low on Op Ex Eve to keep the Greedy Little Puts Holders Hands in the Cookie Jar wanting more, more, more . . . . (rub palms together with Glee) then Snap it shut over night when they can’t do anything about it.  The put holders go to bed with $236,680,500 in equity, the call holders go to bed with about 1/20 of that at $12,105,300 . .  overnight the Grinch comes and takes all of that put equity and moves it all to his .05 call bags all the way to the last can of Who Hash.  And the Poo Poo Put Holders go Boo Hoo Hoo all the way to the weekend.  ( With apologies to the Grinch)

    http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

    Put in SLV then drag mouse over $34 to see value of all puts and calls at that price. and that is only SLV there are other Silver tracking ETF’s out there trading options.

    Don’t worry Kids this is just Fairy Tale no-one would ever, ever do such a thing, sleep tight

  • jigdaddy

    awesome website, thanks for sharing!

  • nyse

    Do you know anyone who uses the CurrentPain portion of the site? I wonder how different that looks relative to the free OptionPain data presented. 

  • Anonymous

     Mole’s trade alert for the subs from late Tuesday had an inside day today. Max pain is higher than it’s currently trading, so maybe a pop tomorrow?

  • Anonymous

    Had the right setup for my OP EXp lightening plays.  SLV had 20 to 1 bias to wards puts at the open around 34.00

    SLV  went down sharp at the open as Euro did as well.  I bought ZSL 20 puts at .20 each sold half at .70  take half of profit rolled into 19 ZSL puts at .05  currently bid .05 ask .10

    We’ll see what the day brings

    Risk Reward works for me