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Silver Surfer
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Silver Surfer

by The MoleJuly 28, 2017

Alright, let’s talk about what exactly happened yesterday when equities effectively fell off the plate mid session after which the plunge protection quickly stepped to push the tape back into politically correct levels. Of course I’m kidding: If you’re looking for conspiracy theories, innuendo, or rumors then please move along. We only concern ourselves with technical evidence and bad humor here at Evil Speculator.

2017-07-28_UVOL_DVOL

You’re looking at the SPX on the lower bottom panel and the NYSE UVOL/DVOL plots on top.

Blue Square: What’s apparent right from the get-go is how selling volume was comfortably leading buying volume after the bell. Equities pushed sideways for a while but then started to drop.

Red Square: During the lunch break selling volume accelerates while buying suddenly dries up. Equities continue lower and pick up steam as participation/liquidity dries up.

Green Square: Dip buyers are starting to stream in but buying volume only manages to catch up near the end of the session, which is usually to be expected due to profit taking and the expectation that mean reversion is kicking in after selling exhaustion. Plus sellers are fickle and nimble these days after consistently getting stomped for eight years.

2017-07-28_spoos_update

Not surprisingly our trailing stop on the E-Mini campaign was touched and I’m glad that I had tightened it up in anticipation of some monkey business. Fortunately I/we managed to lock in a bit over 1R, so that’s better than a kick in the shin.

2017-07-28_Zero

Of course none of this occurred in a vacuum. I kept mentioning to my Zero subscribers (if you are not a member then sign up now) that participation was pretty low recently and of course it’s vacation season which never helps. What did catch my attention two days ago however was the formation I highlighted on the smoothed hourly panel which suggested that a correction could be in the works.

2017-07-28_puts

And of course then there’s this post last Tuesday in which I said, and I quote: “consider whether portfolio risk protection may be a good investment at this stage. I’m thinking OTM long term puts but be creative.” Any questions?

mic_drop

Silver Surfer

But we are supposed to be talking about silver which is looking rather compelling right now.

2017-07-28_silver_LT

On a long term basis it is looking BEARISH wearing a fur coat. Just look at that beautiful weekly NLBL test just below 100-week SMA. It’s also still below its 25-month SMA which has been tested extensively from above before silver wound up dropping through it.

2017-07-28_silver_entry

However on the short term side I’m seeing very bullish panels, which puts us in an interesting position. For one there is NO WAY to predict which direction silver will pick – it may to some extent depend on the trajectory of the U.S. Dollar. But given where we are I decided to take out a very small exploratory long position of about 0.25R – ISL goes below 16.292.

If this one goes into the woodshed then I’ll be watching for continued bearish tape and most likely sell the first spike high after a retest. FYI – we would have to see a pretty strong sell off in order to disqualify that stack of daily NLBLS that have accumulated over the past fe weeks.

2017-07-28_gold_update

While we’re talking precious metals – my gold campaign barely snagged its trail yesterday and I’m out at ~0.7R. Not bad for two day’s work and I’m not too upset as I was looking at having to roll the contract today anyway. So depending on what happens here I’ll be on the look out for a re-entry.

2017-07-28_USDJPY_gold

Another reason why I’m not too upset about getting stopped out in gold is that the USD/JPY is starting to look like it may plot a temporary low. Gold is still kind of ignoring it and perhaps the USD/JPY will continue lower. We’ll see. Of course if I’m right with the USD/JPY then that’s not really supportive for my new silver campaign. Hey, who ever said life as a trader was easy? 😉

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Blue Horseshoe likes CYTR….
    Blue Horseshoe found out life as trader on TTPH….good news followed by bad….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • OJuice
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    we call them bugs over here….and they look like them as they hide in holes or are working the reef….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Perceptions and Attitudes.
    the human mind is a curious thing.

    https://www.foodbeast.com/news/oh-lobster-you-so-fancy/

  • ridingwaves

    “Thousands of tired, nerve-shaken, over-civilized people are beginning to find out that going to the mountains is going home; that wildness is a necessity”
    John Muir

    even more relevant today…the human mind is becoming a hard drive with dwindling space….avg. human in developed world is now up to 50 gigs of information a day…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    long CVX, short XOM? – that’s Whacked.

  • OJuice

    And just like that price cuts right into it.

  • ridingwaves

    trying to wrap my arms around CL as their seems to be a big push to keep it up now as the Aramco IPO becomes clearer….no doubt they will push up oil to make this the largest IPO in the history of all stock markets….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Garbage in / Garbage out.

  • ridingwaves

    67 line looks like very solid resistance…

  • OJuice

    It has had a strong bid this week. And unless something substantial happens it looks like higher prices could be on the horizon.

  • ridingwaves

    the sucker finally is paying off, should go over 1.10 in next couple days….
    see news…
    Shorts are doing good job so far of keeping it down while getting out

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    OJuice USO I have a resistance at 10.11 next resistance 10.64 As you state below a strong week
    JULIE

  • Julie

    F H https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88bd6f68fdb6c9064dfa7232aa26c2ad978fd6e299d7c0a556ac9b9c016a78ee.jpg aving trouble with 11.22 which is the confluence of (1) 5 ema (2) 55 ema (3) lower trend line. Today’s low so far 11.06 and a support 11.02
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    4 touch points on your chart correlate with that red line 67

  • ridingwaves

    big issue with going long anything auto is chart, but you also have the new year models hitting the showrooms, so expect a lot of buzz to try push OEM symbols up…I was in Toyota regional meeting yesterday and new Camry is nice with 300HP… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6a9d9f6e065592ac3fbdc5208f092a6bbb4a40baa02272543086fbe6e36846ab.png

  • OJuice

    300 HP Camry! Hot damn. Pretty sure the one I grew up driving had 120 HP at best. I would have died with more.

  • Julie

    RW I have been reading about excess inventory and subprime auto loans
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    11.22 – that sounds terribly familiar.
    😉

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72851159297

  • Julie

    GG Great chart !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Corolla, lighter, faster, cheaper.
    😉
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80grQbJ3zdk

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    only the finest at EvilSpec.

  • ridingwaves

    its nice…. dealers are excited….Sedans have grown so out of favor to SUV’s that this fall looks to be good time to shop some used sedans…
    in N. Calif 1 out of 5 cars is a Toyota….

  • OJuice

    In Vancouver, BC and the surrounding area, I’m quite sure there are more beige Corollas per capita than anywhere else in the world.

  • ridingwaves

    they have sold 85+ million vehicles over last 5 years…time for slow down…
    consumer is tired

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you sure? I just saw a batch of NIssan’s sail into SanDiego last week. 😉

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/JgzXpci2tjA/maxresdefault.jpg

    (confirmation bias, correlation DNE causation)

  • Julie

    I also have read that people are now keeping their cars longer and maintaing them better
    JULIE

  • OJuice

    Sounds like a case for the Yellenator! We need more access to credit. That 19 year old working at Starbucks needs to be able to get a $25K auto-loan. Its only fair!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I had one 2007-2010.
    gets the job done.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no worries. AZ alone is jacking up min wage.
    10.50 next year, 11, next, 12, next.

  • OJuice

    $15 is the new $12 I heard.

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve been seeing major car dealers offer New cars with the only requirements of $149 down and have a job. WTF? I mean this kind of stuff worked out so well just before the last financial crisis. :( Also a couple of weeks ago, I was talking to a car dealer who had a person try to trade a 2012 Kia with 80,000 miles and a $12,000 loan against it. Apparently this person kept rolling upside down loans until they won’t roll no more.

  • ridingwaves

    cars are just built better, longer intervals on maintenance…..dealers use to see customer 4-5x a year for service, now 1-2 at most…

  • ridingwaves

    negative equity is just an illusion BL :)

    sheeple are easy to shear….

  • OJuice

    $149 and a job… This is truly amazing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    If you’re a heavy (levered) gold dollar trader, the ratio is nearing an inflection point.

    I’d love to see it embed, and crush higher as in 2016, but you trade what is.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b04a5b42da604a86968885bd6e2f06652d9dd607e79c8d014a2ed47380f12cb.png

    It gets interesting if you switch the same chart to weekly.
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    I was a regular on Calculated Risk in 2007-2012 adding some Auto flavor to discussions and was constantly commenting on the fact that when GMAC was rescued and then named ALLY, subprime via fed conduit was going to rev up as credit score destruction via the great recession was telling. Ally was first bank to lower tiered rate thresholds thus forcing the rest of the ABS lenders/captives/players to lower credit based scoring to help churn production/sales…..moving metal was big part of recovery master plan as it injects jobs into multiple verticals…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice to see those bananas volume.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Zimbabwe.
    Everybody thinks they are richer. Numeric silly games.

    The better question is, are they Wealthier?

  • BobbyLow

    Seeing the charts on Ford that Julie put up is a reminder that we could have bought Ford at $1.44 in January 2009. So that’s about 8 Times your money in 8 years. That was a time when there was so much blood on the streets that I along with a lot of other people expected things to become much worse. This was also one hell of a coulda, shoulda, woulda.

  • ridingwaves

    yes, that was maybe the biggest contrarian signal of our lives….the bernanke put was and has been unreal….though not to savers and the prudent…

  • HD

    @zigzag good eyes! The ZW trade worked. kudos

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    @ridingwaves:disqus Interesting article on a new bio-glue. Please let us know when you see this get close to market. Huge potential IMO.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/health-40730875

  • OJuice

    /ES gonna start looking a bit ugly if it sees any afternoon selling.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie

    Added to SDS probe
    JULIE

  • Julie

    I posted two targets I had SPX (1) 2486 (2) 2498 2484 then blooey! IMO yesterday was an important high I entered a short probe SDS on Wednesday EOD and added to it approx 1 hr ago
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    This has become so psychological, where delusion antes may need to keep being raised to keep sweeping-in buying to meet upside objectives. The goal post keeps getting moved.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – don’t be fooled by the small Zero signal today!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/379ab93cc464c70ed703854846a528049f11411d2f352345506b271f878f8512.png

    Almost no participation here.

  • ridingwaves

    well, Kim Jung just fired a missle that landed in Japan waters…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lvH2PbjgA8

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Great, so I don’t have to use superglue anymore when I cut myself during knife training.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So true – sometimes I feel like I got a sector corruption. TOO MUCH information and way too much poltiical drama-rama out there.

  • ridingwaves

    bio innovation is part of reason I invest there….amazing stuff is happening…
    the 6th innovation wave is still breaking….its a big one…its own set of waves…

  • Julie

    Mark this market could dump so hard and fast that you may not get an opportunity to short a bounce
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Japan waters? I read that too.
    wouldn’t that be an act of War?

    the definition of waters is fuzzy. no time to decode.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters

  • ridingwaves

    I’m clueless on your question, even yellow cake starts wars now days…
    but I do miss Robin Williams in today’s world

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Casus belli
    sounds complicated. But it can affect the Markets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli

  • Julie

    Mole Hey Chief there is a company in Portland that has developed a super bandage and is listed. Cant remember the name or symbol. Will try to find the name
    JULIE

  • Julie

    No need for super glue Chief !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yep…wake up one day to find the bus long gone. Maybe get some options to handle that.

  • Ag Coyote

    The ESF riggs the markets, not the PPT. They are ALL fully rigged BTW.

  • Ag Coyote

    Atilla Demiray – Mid Caps Critical Support https://twitter.com/xtrends/status/890993542298034176

  • Ag Coyote

    Close to $2Q (with a Q) derivatives instruments can easily control $300T bonds, equities, PMs, and currency markets. There hasn’t been price discovery in years.

  • Julie

    Wile The Middies are a short
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    everyone is trying to get in….broker is probably going bonkers and settling some favors for PE and hedgies…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Find it – I’m serious about needing it as I do a lot of knife training.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh yeah – love training with a knife.

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Well Cargo, is going to drag down the index.
    Muwahaha.

  • Julie

    Mole this company developed a bandage and the Dept of Defense bought their product and used these bandages in the Iraq War…. I am serious too … Will do my best. The company began with the letter A
    JULIE

  • Julie

    I saw that too ! Shame on them !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, that narrows it down… :-/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I thought BAC would be the fall guy, but WFC is looking more and more like the scape goat for the angry public, in the near future.

    http://www.musicfestivalwizard.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/highlander.jpg.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    new skin, liquid bandage..

    do these people NOT know how to use GOOG?
    http://www.newskinproducts.com/liquid-bandages/liquid-bandage/

    {face palm}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    they keep one of the wagons in nearby AZ.
    The bank doesn’t own it, they lease it from the owner best I know.

    if you ever want to borrow it, a few assault rifles bolt cutters, and it’s ours.
    😉
    http://www.huntingtonbeachparade.com/wp-content/images/Huntington-Beach-Parade-293.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehehe….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, I’m about to grab a chilled blonde. Have a great weekend everyone!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7562cf9743aebfb3318bfbc18904a1a7409d496710f22a55ddda9b6bd244b642.png

  • Julie

    MOLE GOT IT — SYMBOL ALQA ALLIQUA BIO MEDICAL specialty wound dressings and healing offices in Portland and Pennsylvania
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gracias Julie.

  • Julie

    SPX 10 min chart Triangulating ? Sheesh …… Only in America !
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6084416c57ba77248f63536d93d425715d20d25dbbb404beeacbddf332fae3f.jpg

  • Julie

    USO clears strong resistance 10.11 Next resistance 10.64 and it’s 233 ema Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c64288981bef772d106ef63d18b53f69fc1fe758f3170e366b33d192700dcbd5.jpg

  • Julie

    Your Welvome Chief !
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    IIRC, cyanoacrylate glues were invented to stem battlefield bleeding during the Vietnam war.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    One of the reasons I do not watch any television. Zero. If there’s anything I’ve learned from Ivan, it’s to be aware that I have 86,400 seconds per day. That’s irreplaceable, and is the most valuable thing I have.

  • Julie

    $TNX Divergences are only measured on closing prices. Many traders screw up thinking they are highs and lows of candles. Notice the positive divergences RSI and MACD that presaged the advance. Also the pullback to gap support and the broken downtrend line
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c92e282cba43fb57b619e9aefd1bbbd8733e1af95c5f184a12ff7335d5d3214.jpg

  • Julie

    I should have used a thicker setting showing the positive divergences
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Have you done your homework? or are you drunk in a bar?
    Muwahaha. Have a Great Weekend rats.

    USD, terminal down move around August 10/11.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b35e9a4c681bd89566d55209ff6b15009c0dddddbe9dd5dae65513361887a4b.png

    -GG

  • Ronebadger
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III