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Sitting Pretty
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Sitting Pretty

by The MoleFebruary 14, 2018

I’m a bit pressed for time this morning due to social commitments, so let’s get right to it. Equities produced a pretty flat session yesterday with barely any signal on the Zero’s market participation signal. Now this is not unusual and we’ve seen days like this on a regular basis especially after snap backs to the upside. Early institutional dip buyers have done their part at this point and are now fishing for hobby bears they can rip to pieces in the following sessions.

Watching price action like this it is often tempting to assume that there’s no more mojo in the advance but for the past few years that’s not how it usually has played out. Now if we ever transition into a bear market again then sessions like these may be seen before further legs to the downside. But until we officially get there the bulls still run the show.

My debit spread is sitting pretty at this point but now has to get a move on. If you’re not in the market yet then this may be a spot for a small exploratory futures positions. A reader asked me yesterday why I wouldn’t go long the ES futures yesterday or on Monday and my answer was that I could not justify the possible overnight downside risk. I first wanted to see positive price action and the snowball’s chance of some type of support should things start sliding again.

The trailing stop on my DX campaign has been stopped out, not surprisingly. At least I was able to squeeze 1.5R out of it. But this may just be the overture to yet another leg lower on the USD.

Crude isn’t looking stellar either and I expect it to drop to my ISL. We shall try again near the 100-day SMA sometime in the future.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Dyellowflash

    Tks for the heads up on Eurusd. I wanted to wait for an entry to go long, but decided not trade against Mole’s special call. That saved a bit of pain – given the gap, it might run 20-30 pips past a normal SL and I usually only set 15 pips SL per trade.

  • Ronebadger

    What just happened at 8:30…some report?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    OUCH – consumer prices surged apparently.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My short position is looking good now! 🙂 STOP TO BREAK EVEN.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Stop to break/even on both my ZB and EURUSD position from this morning (subscriber only). If you’re not a sub then sign up now!

  • HD

    some hobby bears ripping bulls to pieces.

  • HD

    This is the whipsaw Wednesday doozy that was setting up all day yesterday. This could be a long entry if we test those levels noted yesterday.

  • HD

    News marks time.

  • Dyellowflash

    u might want to be careful and TP a bit bcos that spike down did not create a short signal for me on eurusd… almost, but did not, at least not yet.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Hey boss, it’s a special day.
    otherwise, Mrs. Evil is going to kill you.

    https://d2pu2bk1b66iw6.cloudfront.net/photos/2015/02/12/6-92897-german-valentine-1423703861.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    https://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

    bookmark it. save your badger ass some day.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    I had a limit buy on $ES 2635 after the CPI report but it got away…

  • Tomcat

    As I have mentioned recently. Gold’s head and shoulder formation looks eerily similar to Sep:
    http://schrts.co/a9fNwb

  • HD

    buyers came in earlier than expected. 1 more whipsaw please

  • Ronebadger

    Looks like lots of “market moving” news tomorrow…volatility might get…well, errr…volatile

  • Ronebadger

    Today’s SPY volume has already exceeded yesterday’s (from FreeStockCharts.com)

  • Tomcat

    GG, I noticed you put up a chart of GE last night, and although you may be right short term, I think this is a very holding long term. 3%+ yield after already cutting its div. Once Immelt left, there seems to be a vacuum of leadership, but I think eventually they will get their house in order because their business moat is very strong.

  • Darkthirty

    Buyers……….AKA ?

  • Tomcat

    June contract hit my sell limit.

  • Yoda

    “Early institutional dip buyers have done their part at this point and are now fishing for hobby bears they can rip to pieces in the following sessions.”
    hear, hear.

  • Mary

    I think they use BATS data only

  • Yoda

    Yes, there needs to be fear today, but only enough to suck in the freshly minted, but late, cuddly bears. Sign up for the zero in turbulent time, the only true “crystal ball” I know of.

  • Mary

    I’m surprised Buffet hasn’t bought them.

  • ridingwaves

    it’s not near yesterdays by my view

  • ridingwaves

    inflation meme- told you guys it was here…

  • BobbyLow

    Man you guys have been busy already this morning.

    I’m a big fan of “The Deadliest Catch” and I remember the scene where Captain Phil Harris could tell where the Crabs were by looking for air bubbles in the water that he called “Crab Farts”. Trading the markets can be like crab fishing in the Bering Sea with severe perils but the perils are mostly to our financial well being.

    So be on the lookout for Crab Farts that can be strong indicator of money in the waters. . .:)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHhMyc4uvKg

  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of Crab Farts, Gold is smelling pretty good so far this morning. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    the boys are putting in a beatdown for L VIX playas
    If I had a million in margin today I would be up 100K…
    So many trades right now its unreal…

    Gold bugs are on fire

  • Mary

    He’s dead now, correct?

  • BobbyLow

    Yes. He died of a cerebral hemmorage I think. His son Josh took over the boat for awhile.

  • Nate

    Man they took whoever traded that inflation news and melted their face off . . .
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/263d026cdb20fb3509331e98588e9af8dfadcab3e2eb936f3572168c3c47a51b.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Like I intimated, trading the markets is like fishing in the Bering Sea in the dead of winter. You never know when the wind will begin blowing at 70 Miles an hour and try to take you under. 🙂

  • Dyellowflash

    This particular hr shld be very impt. I am now net short, see if this hr turns/stays green, then i will exit and call it a day.

  • Tomcat

    Or maybe call it a night?

  • ridingwaves

    I think we might be headed to test old high
    the ultimate fuckery of the bears….

  • Tomcat

    Sissy bears then 😉

  • Tomcat

    You sure could smell the Gold Farts. Nice one BL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes, IMHO it’s all about the dividend yield. can those clowns piece together a company and keep the dividend payout steady.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he might. but it’s usually after the fact, when Billionaires tell all.

  • Dyellowflash

    If this whole thing works out, it will be a genius trade. I stated in the previous post that i short futures at today’s high. I cleared off all the contract at the day’s low and refilled back everything again here. If this fails, at worst, i gave that the profits from this morning.

  • Tomcat

    “Nailing” tops and bottoms. You must have game

  • Tomcat

    Its only the second cut in the history of the company. Are you betting against history?

  • Tomcat

    Buffet bought preferred shares back in the 2009 crisis and was contractually obligated to sell close to 20 I think, bc preferred were yielding 10%+. Unlike us mortals, he gets deals no one can get.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if I do anything. it’s going to be less than 2%!

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/two-percent-rule.asp

  • Dyellowflash

    shorted dow 24810 in the morning and 24690 now. Still not looking good. Price wise, it had broken my limit for this retrace, but candle is not formed yet. 28 mins to go.

  • HD

    I hate chasing but HH’s and HL’s. It is what it is.

  • Tomcat

    Today’s oil report completely different from last nights. NO MANIPULATION whatsoever.

  • ridingwaves

    your still in a good spot if it falls, SPY is having serious trouble above the 266.65 line https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a34b0a257b89a1045eb4f1c154adbb233ecc9937a59bb3445e57e9ea091d2024.png

  • HD

    My humble little oscillator has -D from yesterday’s and Mondays hod

  • BobbyLow

    I am fortunate that I had gone back to using 3X Long UGLD on my current Gold trade even though it is an ETN. I had been only scalping Gold Futures for awhile because of having trouble measuring ATR Stops that made any sense holding Gold Futures overnight. I could have used a 15 Point stop on Gold Futures last night and still got screwed this morning.

    So it’s kind of like pick my poison on the risk front and it is what it is.

  • Dyellowflash

    zero is not favoring me right now.

  • ridingwaves

    they just jumped it over that weak area, been holding folks back since 2-8

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nice.
    copper reversed on the weekly.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82910464242

    gold stocks are playing catch-up.

  • ridingwaves

    lack of sellers in gold products right now is something I can’t remember seeing for a while now

  • ridingwaves

    eerily similar to Nov.Dec big bars….favors bulls?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    someone got caught with their pants down, let’s give it a few days..

    (entry long UGLD)

  • Tomcat

    -D is failing isn’t it?

  • BobbyLow

    This happens quite a bit. These reports can move price at least temporarily but they are based on supply and demand to the end consumer which really, really doesn’t mean as much as one might think. What actually drives price is the supply and demand of oil contracts being bought and sold on the market and are driven more by the old greed and fear thing. The Greed is that buyers are going to miss out on future gains and the Fear is that holders are going to get stuck holding on to an asset that’s going to be worth less in the near future. Otherwise it’s just a game and I have a hard time believing that the large players and institutions don’t have access to what the real supply is at any time.

    JMHO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Dyellowflash

    The irony of the day was I just realised that i had a pending order for AAPL stocks (I like to buy small unit as “tracers” to see how the individual stocks are doing…) and it filled at the day’s open low… now that long position is up by about 11%. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15da95a61c7a600d95a7a3f7c93acb5c5209190e3f4c02d75a748f76a3c5a078.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Yep it’s been awhile. Gold prices had been lying relatively dormant for all kinds of reasons perhaps including the Dollar, Equity Madness and maybe even BTC. We’ll see if there’s more to come or if this is a flash in the pan though.

  • ridingwaves

    inflation numbers also helped BTC jump back above 9K

  • BobbyLow

    I forgot about inflation. Absolutely a big factor.

  • Darkthirty

    ES on 10 minute pump cycle, seems to have faded, but still in the channel

  • Tomcat

    You can never forget about that. That is the biggest thesis long term gold bugs have…

  • ridingwaves

    SPY needs to stay above that 266.70 line….lets see if they defend at all OPEX costs…

  • ridingwaves

    jumped back into NKTR at 72.50 today, huge news in morning, shorts drove it red in pre-market though BMY just gave them a billion dollars and 800million in shares above 102….if I had a lot of margin I would have made a killing today, might close at 99

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a very nice daily move.

    You like playing with fire, don’t you?
    😉
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=NKTR,P&listNum=

  • Tomcat

    Actually looks like I (my memory) was wrong. Buffett sold mid 2017 at $27-30.
    https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/GE

  • ridingwaves

    no fire here, this symbol is severely under priced…..watch this ticker thru dn of June, it will be beautiful….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Huffing crab farts will kill you…………..

  • Darkthirty

    Still need RSI (5) to hit 10 on $indu 60 minute chart, gonna take a hell of a downdraft for that

  • Julie

    Taking 3/4 off GDX long up into the lower cloud boundary ; baseline (21) and 55 ema https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/434eb71fa93b645908d0fadb73cc69b720a8407d3a966de577c4bf112bc72c4a.png JULIE

  • Julie

    SPX going to watch 2702 for a reversal . If 2702 is not attained as a reversal IMO can occur at anytime as SPX having a difficult time with lower cloud boundary. If a reversal does occur here will short with a bearish close below 2648 One day at a time https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8bed79f796fcbf826b05784ec80aab0e9c8a5c3e62a0ea1bd0d476579bc1cb96.png JULIE

  • HD

    Def hasn’t worked yet. Still -D though.

  • Julie

    Taking a long position USO Target 12.36 and 12.47 Short term trade only. Looking for a bounce to a lower high to short as stated in previous posts JULIE

  • HD

    Valentine’s Day is a total retail hack job of a ‘holiday’.
    Also Arizona day though.
    https://youtu.be/qtZJiQSmJ9g

  • Julie

    Hi HD SPX An impulse up from 2532. A reversal can occur at anytime what we have been expecting SPX now up into it’s 60 min 55 ema . OK the 60 min 89 ema (2703) matches the daily baseline (21) shown in daily chart SPX posted below at 2702. 2702 is also the daily 55 ema. NOW 2702 is also the approx. upper cloud boundary on 50 min chart As stated yesterday looking for another leg lower then a final bounce for a great short SPX Shown SPX 60 min chart https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/14be63284dd45182fee1175c0473f53b629617a2ca5685cabfa83f02ada0a5e0.png JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Because leeches like you never sign up? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually I made a mistake – those are supposed to be ETH and LTC – grrrr….

  • HD

    Agree that some wave terminated at 2533. It does look like 5 waves off that low. Maybe the biggest clue that the bull has resumed is the IV crush. That looks familiar doesn’t it? If the wave IV low is in V =I at 2911. Yes 911. Those are large wave patterns Though. Not best practice.

  • BobbyLow

    I think when Phil Harris was younger he sniffed a lot of stuff besides crab farts. 🙂 He was quite the character.

  • Julie

    IMO A bounce exactly off the 233 ema and now a dead catter up into the declining 55 ema matching comments (target 2702) in posts. Then lower to approx. 2600 matching the lower cloud boundary in 60 min chart shown above 2600 ia also the approx. 60 min baseline (21) Then up for the final leg THEN 911. Also this bounce from 2532 could also go up the the declining daily 21 ema approx. 2118. Daily full stochs and RSI indicate that it can go up to 2702 and or 2118 Shown another SPX daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c111210d99efebf859c2c3a4b3d37be2937ee37ff54e888af4dc83c2c984baad.png

  • BobbyLow

    Just joined you Julie and went long UCO.

  • Julie

    I am dyslexic and have a problem with numbers Letters I am fine Please refresh as the daily 21 ema is 2718 not 2118 I must double and triple check numbers. I can’t help it and am sorry .Always look at the charts I post and double check the numbers like exp moving averages
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Alright, SPX 2688 as we speak.

    For you bulls, hopefully it’s 2014 all over again (green circle), and there is a quick procession to some kind of highs.

    but for the last 2 out 3, in the last 5 years, there’s a tricky little resistance band, dead ahead.
    that little band, put up a fight for several more weeks.
    see chart.
    -GG

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ada6bc084fb3b3f25937ff6b205328c48be2bcb0127711cf8d937c287a1362e.png

  • Julie

    Thanks GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no problem.
    off to lunch..

  • Julie

    SPX here we go Now above the 60 min 55 ema heading up to the 60 min 89 ema (2703) matching what ? If you say 2702 you be correct ! This is gonna be good ! Love it !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Nice work Julie. Looks like you found a lot of confluence in that area.

  • BobbyLow

    Wow!!!!!!! All that glitters IS Gold. At least so far today it is. 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    We are nothing but a compilation of our experiences

  • Nate

    Enjoying the ride up on SPX all due to the awesome entry the Zero helped me make last week. I never would have entered if it weren’t for the Zero. Nothing like watching your gains come in adjusting those stops to ensure your gains get banked.

    Thank you Zero. Thank you Mole!

  • Julie

    Yeah HD 2702 is critical esp the declining 55 ema and also the approx. 50% retracement. However it can throw a curve ball and go up to the declining 21 ema approx. 2718 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4eb988ef5b69c7eec1053cdf05daf9a849594d62ed63cb5db1a242f1ee916d1.png

  • BobbyLow

    Crude beginning to catch fire too. Gold and Oil Farts bubbling up all over the place. 🙂

  • Julie

    Nate The Chief is great that is one of MANY and I mean MANY reasons we are here !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    there is no reason it can’t go back up to your 100% marker….

  • Julie

    Hi RW IMO not with present volume SPY IMO going to need increasing volume SPY not decreasing volume Just saying RW
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If you truly want to express additional gratitude look no further than below the author info – mmwwwuuaaahahaaa :-))

    Nah – all good – really happy you’re able to bank some coin with it. But I recommend you watch more videos so you turn into a Zero pro.

  • ridingwaves

    lots of new found bears still holding onto hope, hope likes to be separated by the big boys….less volume would be better….walk it up to a higher high and dump it….

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure DT

  • HD

    Does anybody have 2702 on their radar?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sounds like a leading question (hehe – get it?)

  • HD

    🙂 I was joking, obviously, one of the better whipsaws I’ve seen 50 point hit and 70 point rally. Julie may get her price today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sounds like I’m not the only one with a bad sense of humor… :-p

  • ridingwaves

    2725 will be important

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2713, but what’s in a number?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    129, and not a penny less.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36049375269

    suck it, gold shorting scum bags.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Hmmm, sounds like interest rates are about to go up up up.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24309545480

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    How is the gold/dollar ratio doing?…..not bad NOT bad.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25075566121

  • HD

    $SPx has had a gap opening and significant reversal every day this week. May be a strategy for Th.

  • Julie

    Actually HD IMO that Is distribution Big boys unloading on the gap up then retail and dippers coming in. Somebody gonna be holding the bag again
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s what I keep thinking, but as has been said around here, thinking can be dangerous. trading-the-tape is fun & hard at the same time.

  • Julie

    GG There are lot of institutions and retail that have been caught with their pants down on this sudden dump and want out. Very interesting .
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    It’s about time GG. This might hurt people who keep large balances on their credit cards. But it might help savers if banks begin to pay higher interest rates on CD’s than the equivlent of putting cash in a sock under our mattress.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPX & XLF may be flying high today…..

    but HYG is not impressing me at all. That overhead red line awaits or else.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p89775042344

    There’s a Big Bad Grandpa Grizzly out there, or so I’ve been told
    here’s a story before your time sissy.

    http://evilspeculator.com/the_tale_of_the_big_bad_bear/
    -GG

  • HD

    I’ll take the 2702 trade.

  • Nate

    Great recommendation. I’ve watched most of them but I’ll keep reviewing. My favorite setup is the Zero / price divergence and reversal as it seems like one of the most clear setups.

  • Julie

    HD negative divergences MACD CCI and RSI on the 10 min. 60 min overbought and daily approaching overbought
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes sir. Can you imagine equities if the banks actually paid a nice return?
    Doom. OTOH, if the banks don’t start earning their keep (the old fashion way), crypto could eliminate them entirely. We’re talking Internet Paradigm F’ing shift, my old friend.

  • Julie

    GG many people know very little about bears. Wherever we go outdoors in MT signs are posted on all trails. The Grizzly bear which are very abundant in MT are the mast dangerous of all. Will attack immediately. Momma usually has two cubs every spring. Three is unusual as is one
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    if banks are paying a return, XLF will go higher, disclaimer-other sectors may not react to higher rates the same

  • Mary

    Montana Grizzly Bear Notice:

    In light of the rising frequency of human/grizzly bear
    conflicts, the Montana Department of Fish and Game
    is advising hikers, hunters, and fishermen to take extra
    precautions and keep alert for bears while in the field.
    We advise that outdoorsmen wear noisy little bells on
    their clothing so as not to startle the bears that aren’t
    expecting them. We also advise outdoorsmen to carry
    pepper spray with them in case of an encounter with a
    bear.

    It is also a good idea to watch out for fresh signs of bear
    activity. Outdoorsmen should recognize the difference
    between black bear and grizzly bear poop. Black bear poop
    is smaller and contains a lot of berry seeds and squirrel fur.
    Grizzly bear poop has little bells in it and smells like pepper
    spray.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bear scat experts. *now* we’re talkin’.
    😉

  • Julie

    Thanks Mary They are beautiful to watch but only from a safe distance. They can get up and go as they can outrun a Quarter horse in a 1/4 mile approaching speeds of 40 miles an hour. 2nd fastest animal in the forest behind a cougar. A cougar can do 55 MPH
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the things they do, to get the next guy. sad.

    “It’s heart-breaking to watch a mother break up her family. The cubs are completely distraught. Stressed and frightened, they whine and whimper in disbelief. The mother that protected and cared for them just yesterday has cast them aside. Mothers will tenaciously reject their offspring if they try to return. Alone and vulnerable, siblings will often stay together for some time after their mother leaves them, eating and sleeping side-by-side, and even denning together.”

  • Julie

    One item of interest is no matter how big and mean a bear is they will walk around a wolverine. A wolverine is not to me messed with. Get away from one immediately. Many wolverines in Montana
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the chinese market closures on Fri-Mon. and US on Monday are making this ramp hard to short

  • BobbyLow

    A while back I had some money come to me that was a bit of a surprise. It was a relatively decent amount so I went to our local bank to see what they could offer me in a CD rate. This was before any Fed increases at all and the best the bank could do was in the 1’s percentages unless I wanted to extend way out in time. I think she was a little embarased so I thanked her for her time and sent an ACH to my trading account.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, there-abouts hope for some moning gap into there.

  • Nate

    Decided to close my long via SPXL due to the lower lows on the Zero this afternoon. Could be a mistake but I’ll take the 150ish SPX points I got out of it.

  • ridingwaves

    they took out CD’s as investment for the common folks, too safe and hard to extract retail blood from per the pigmens perspective…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its ok, just needs some time, such as a morning gap to expected resistance.

  • ridingwaves

    nice trade

  • Nate

    I showed up at the right time and got to cherry pick one of the easier reads. Fortunate!

  • BobbyLow

    I struck while the iron was hot and closed out my long Gold position for +2.8 R after less than a 3 day soak. Might end up leaving a lot on the table but that’s OK considering recent market volatility . I’m still holding long crude via UCO.

  • HD

    Awesome!

  • ridingwaves

    everyone is banking coin…..excellent….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s the idea 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    I think we might see a test of old high….danger lurks, the Chinese seem to come back stock hungry after lunar new year…

  • Julie

    SPY max pain is 273. Possible gap up tomorrow and make the SPY puts expire worthless
    JULIE

  • Julie

    USO a nice move up today closing above it’s declining 55 ema with some nice volume. toady I did take 3/4 off a long from yesterday
    JULIE

  • Julie

    12.36 and 12.47 USO targets

  • Julie

    I also took 3/4 off a long GDX today also
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Interesting that with different systems and different rules that we almost traded the same way with crude and gold today.

  • Julie

    BL Ideally as stated looking for lower highs on this bounce both USO and GDX to short longer term. I knew there would be a bounce USO off it’s 89 ema and lower cloud . GDX off 21 lower trading range
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I try to keep it simple. I prefer to buy strength, sell weakness, ride momentum until it turns, and then go the other way. A lot of the time we can come to the exact same conclusions using totally different methods and that’s cool.

  • Julie

    BL Same conclusions always augment a possible trade set up. GG and myself are very often on the same page. Very cool ! Love it !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    “…patiently waiting to maul your ass when the time is right”
    Many have opined the correction to have been sufficient.

  • Mark Shinnick

    They would need to make up for the otherwise lost or increasing liquidity losses…I believe this is the key just as it was when the secular bull began with increasing liquidity generations ago.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’m swamped with errands today and can’t put up a post. Can you find it in your heart to forgive me? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    face palm {the captain’s getting soft}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ~2713, 2714 – note the RSI is still below 50.

    caveat emporer.
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a0768d63e5a526884e111bd86c4c2b6272699f32da142b7c5cfe0cf15ff3959.png

  • Tomcat

    Hard to go with just one indicator.

  • ridingwaves

    Have to say it, that young women above is making it easy to visit this post….very beautiful lady..
    that being said.. here is the area they will need to jump or it sells off
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d093953b19a5f8e08ce8f9f9d8bf7d690a7e702875121d4f72b43544f9d44eaf.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    absolutely.

  • Yoda
  • ridingwaves

    no problem, please deposit any spare winnings at my bank as you make the banking rounds…

  • Tomcat

    OMG this buffoon needs to stop making public appearances. Who the fck listens to him??? I mean, I am hopeful there are many fools that actually follow his advice. .

  • Nate

    I guess so . . . the Zero will have to do today . . . it’s not as witty as you are though . . .

  • Tomcat

    I actually think if we break through 2725ish with any meaningful force, as RW posted below we are very likely to revisit ATHs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    quite possible.
    the High Yield pump is back on.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26165655637

  • Yoda

    why would you want to get rid of one of the best contrarian indicators out there?

  • BobbyLow

    Back when I was almost “totally” naive in this business, I used to think that these so-called experts knew what they were doing. I think it was back in the early 2000’s and Gartman was banging the table on Fannie Mae. I performed a double whammy at that time. I was trading Option Spreads in size and followed Gartman. I forgot the exact details of my trade but it was some kind of spread combo with Leaps and Front Months. I ended up with 3,000 Shares of Fannie Mae “Put” to me and lost a shit load of money. This is my one and only first hand memory of Gartman. He’s probably just as bad as Cramer if not worse.

  • Nate

    Headed to bank to empty all accounts and get home equity loan in which to go short /sarcasm

  • Tomcat

    BL, please do not compare this buffoon with Cramer. Cramer has his issues, but this buffoon instructs people to trade products he himself does not seem to comprehend. Never heard Cramer instructing people to short. He just seems to be bullish stocks.

  • Tomcat

    Oh and I remember Gartman back in the 2000s and unfortunately fell in the same trap as you did, I think I bought Fannie and Freddy when they were in the 100s if I remember correctly. But I am trying to forget those dark days of trading.

  • Yoda

    lol, wait until he’s balls to the wall long 😉

  • Nate

    OK, OK. I already emptied the accounts and got the home equity . . .but you caught me before I did the payday and title loans so I’ll hold off . . . https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a27158eeda41cf6ed783017757a8e00917724fc24b5922b7ec151106f3a4ff5.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Closed my UCO for a +.26 R Gain. It’ll probably go higher but I’ll be out for most of the day tomorrow and I wanted to end what has already been a very good week with a win. All in cash for now.

  • Yoda

    Gartman is a Wall Street stooge whose role is to warn fellow speculators of a trend change

  • Yoda

    XD

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    How does he sleep at night?

  • Tomcat

    Seems like this index is stuck in the red or the fake news” CNN needs to refresh their code:
    http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
    VIX below 20, Junk green, Indices green, commodities green. Yeah FAKE NEWS.

  • Tomcat

    like a baby, I am sure

  • ridingwaves

    playing my script….thank you trading buddha’s
    nam myoho renge kyo

  • Wave_surfer

    It says it is based on the slow moving 120 day SMA, so it is meant to be a slower moving indicator.

  • Tomcat

    I think it has to do more with the last refresh of Feb 13th.

  • Nate

    Interesting watching the Zero into the close yesterday and then this morning. Some lower lows and lower highs as things pushed upwards yesterday afternoon . . . and then no participation on the gap. Cool context!

  • ridingwaves

    ot- RIP to the young Floridan kids whom were never given a chance by a peer, another kid….
    I know I’ll take some heat but the best thing that can happen is for the state to declare him guilty and then hang him in a public setting within 30 days, while its fresh….time for reality to be introduced for young folks with any thoughts that are similar to his. Evil only lives when you keep it alive…

  • HD

    The gap strategy worked, reversed right back to 2700

  • HD

    So tragic. We have to do something. I was very surprised when they rolled back the mental health background checks last year. Nobody benefits from that.

  • HD

    Old school 50 DMA too.

  • Tomcat

    Question is if we head lower from here, do we break through the 200MA? I think yes. Would love to see that.

  • ridingwaves

    the youth mindset has been altered, the BS drugs they are giving them for ADD and hyperness is just that, I was as hyper as they get in school…add the violence in games, VR, movies etc. and a recipe for disaster…. the little fuck pulled the fire alarm to lure them kids out……take him out ASAP…old yeller was more worthy of life…

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I believe that something can start with reasoned public discussion, and sharing informed opinions with congress critters. I’m sure both will be difficult in the current hyper partisan environment. Whatever the solution(s) end up being, I think it’s going to have to take multiple action steps. I’m an owner, and the effing NRA via their paid off legislators keep even basic statistical research on guns from happening at the CDC. Criminal, IMO. ‘Thoughts and prayers’ don’t do a damn thing.

    Sure, RW’s solution to the perp is appropriate, but prevention would be better.

  • HD

    Tuff subject amigo. We r hurting too. Little HD is a freshman. I would counter that crazy is not age related as we learned in LV. Be well.

  • BobbyLow

    So ya say you like Volatility eh?

    I think I like it and I’m getting nervous because I’ve had 9 wins in a row over the last 8 trading days. This is breaking new ground for me and I have a feeling that I’m overdue for a whack. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    I agree about the age thingy but we had guns for a long time, the youth massacres have become too prevalent since Columbine….they are feeding off each other….the immunizations, drugs and culture of violence in media, gaming, movies etc. is guilty of helping this take place

  • Mary

    The first step in solving a problem is to identify it correctly.

  • HD

    Another way to think about that is there was an assaults rifle ban until 2004 so today’s youth has had a different level of access compared to gen x. I’m an owner just for context.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if your batting average is 0.6, then 9 out of 15 is good.
    you are due for 6 losses coming at you.
    😉

  • Mary

    indices seem to be running outta gas …

  • Tomcat

    First step is admitting you have one. But next you are right, identifying root cause vs treating symptoms is the best approach

  • HD

    I will err in the low is in but having a fractal POV there was also a 12% hit in 2007. Marginal HH and then 2008. Just sayin…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mary

    I knew I could give them a boost.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Exactly, and this is a multifaceted problem. No easy solutions, but the discussion needs to start.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    yep, today would be a good time to start. I believe things are just a bit too easy for our youth today when it comes to extracting revenge. Part of deterrence is to make the action a capital offense, no appeals when found flat out guilty and put to death by the state within 2 months. Time to honor victims and stop honoring the evil perps…..

  • BobbyLow

    Could be. I had 4 losses in a row in the middle of January and had a great January. So it comes down to what Ivan used to say which is each trade is only 1 trade out of the next 1,000 trades.

    I’m glad that Scott hammered home the importance of keeping proper records and that Mole and Scott went over in detail how to compile Van Tharpe’s Average Positive Expectancy, SD, and SQN – SQN 100. So far for 2018, my win rate is at 61% on 33 Closed Trades (Ave 4.7 Trades per week) My APE is running high at .41 and SQN 100 is currently running at 3.82 which is also very high. These numbers being so high is a good thing but it’s also saying that I might not be maximizing my system. OTOH, my SD is at 1.07 which is excellent right now so I’m going to leave well enough alone and let the averages take care of themselves. I expect these numbers to come down over time but hopefully not too much. 🙂

  • Mary

    The discussion has been occurring for years, but Mole has requested that we stick with trading topics on his board. So without picking a side publicly, I will pose a question to mull over, no public response required.

    There appears to me to be 2 very general sides that get taken on this issue. One side thinks the person that commits the offense is at fault, and the other side thinks the type of device they choose to use is at fault.

    So if the 2 sides can never agree and decide to peacefully split into 2 separate countries, which one would you choose to live in?

    No public responses required. This is just a thought provoker.

  • Mark Shinnick

    As good a model as any. Ne need for a HH I’ve got a 280 zone objective would work pretty good.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pulling any trigger is a trade with consequences….mortal choice seemed pretty obvious to me target shooting 22’s as a 7 yo. Good parenting protecting kids from confusion seems to have collapsed or been too bypassed.

  • Mary

    A lot has changed in 14 years – can’t compare apples and oranges:

    A population on powerful anti-depressants
    Normalized violence in our culture
    Narcissistic social media
    Declining family values

  • HD

    Agree w you and Mary, there are many variables to account for. 20 years ago there wasn’t even the internet. The common variable though is assault rifles and high capacity mags.

  • Mary

    like the guy that burnt down the nightclub in the Bronx several years ago?

  • HD

    You lost me Mary? Was Talking about school shootings. There has been 18 already this year. I’m gonna move on though.

  • Mary

    I’m talking about mass murders. School shootings is only a subset.

    The common variable is that a human did it.

    That kid was batshit crazy.

    It seems like everyone knew he was batshit crazy.

    But nobody, including the FBI, did anything about him. Why?