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Skeleton Crew
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Skeleton Crew

by The MoleJuly 23, 2013

Let’s face it – we’re at the peak of the summer vacation season and trading desks all across are operating on a skeleton crew. I don’t expect much excitement today and good setups right now are few and far in between. So let’s focus on the one chart of interest today, and – much to my surprise – it’s bearish one (gasp!!):

Yes sirree – we have ourselves a bonafide Retest Variation Sell signal today. If you’re unclear on the rules then check my handy cheat sheet. In a nutshell an RTV-S has a similar resolution as what the wave wankers (yes, I used to be one of them) refer to as a third wave. So the idea here is that this breach leads to downside acceleration – perhaps in thin tape not unthinkable. Based on the rules we ought to be short already but since we’ve pulled back here’s another chance.

However, let’s be clear here – this entry bets against the ongoing trend (as we have not dropped through any major support levels yet and we have non-confirmation on the ES and YM side. So the odds are low here – I would play it with a small position size and put your stop above 3055.25. Done.

Alright, since it’s a slow day I’ll make this a freebie. Our gold entry on Friday was executed with surgical precision and it has already paid off handsomely. After a squeeze to the upside we are now faced with an inside candle. Most excellent! According to the Crazy Ivan rules this allows us to manage our existing positions by pushing our stop to 1325.6 – which would also our signal to go short. If you are still unexposed (shame on you) then here’s your chance to hitch a ride – no matter which way it’ll breach.

Have fun but keep it frosty!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    freebie, WooHoo!

  • Ronebadger

    He’s exposing himself again!

  • Ronebadger

    Good stuff, Mole, thanks!

  • SS_JJ

    I don’t see much looming resistance yet on gold and silver
    Daily 25 BBs are expanding and there is still quite a bit of room to go before the 100D sma is touched. I am expecting a retest of the acceleration line though but not much more at this stage

  • SS_JJ

    He kinda looks pale 😉

  • Ronebadger

    The only light he gets is from the computer screen….

  • SS_JJ

    I guess the gold setup has triggered

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Unless I’m mistaken, looks like the AUDUSD setup has triggered too

  • Bun Dance Kid

    That’ll teach ’em to take a vacation

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Life’s a Beeach?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Hope they packed their shorts

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Bwa-hahaha.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Am I wrong or are YM, SPX and NQ more out of sync than usual

  • newbfxtrader

    Very funny!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    A return of GoldenGerb? Can it be true?

    FNV and TRX took out June highs today

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    @Molecool
    This gold trade you’ve been playing is one for textbooks.
    Outstanding!

  • SS_JJ

    nice…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    perhaps.

  • Skynard

    Nice trade going on the /NQ:) Thanks Mole! Damn, who had earnings?

  • SS_JJ

    We’ll celebrate the day when his name will be golden

  • newbfxtrader

    Whats your plan on the Aussie?

  • convictscott

    The Aussie just breached major upside resistance after 3 months of downside (per my post yesterday!) What *should* happen is that upside capitulation should occur, with shorts capitulating and getting long. It is above the 25 SMA for the first time since March.

    If we see anything else but upside capitulation it stinks to the upside. OTOH a counter trend bounce should be targeting something in the .96 area at least

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    when the GLD daily gets above the 150MA.
    could be a long time, still in a downtrend.

  • Skynard

    Well, sucker cleared resistance. Still short but am thinking to buy the pullback if we get one. Eco data tonight should get that opportunity. If it pops will get stopped out.

  • newbfxtrader

    Thx Scott.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Took a small position on the breach. Thanks for set up and update, Scott.

  • convictscott

    I’m long from .9235 stop .91535

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • convictscott

    Pullback and test a reasonable probability for this session. The channel looks too subjective to my eyes. IMO drawing channels is for when the market is behaving like a channel market. A channel is a weakening uptrend or weakening downtrend. AUD recently has not been behaving like that, so trying to draw channel lines on it is a little spurious

  • Schwerepunkt

    WOW, NDX sure snapped back.

  • newbfxtrader

    Scott when I try to draw channels like that from charts I see online the channels dont match. On my TOS the above channel is already broken. Why does that happen? I am using log scale.

  • badflightrisk

    Snapple effect!

  • sburtt

    running some short EURAUD as I see some short term divergence on my 60min chart in AUD.

    CS can I ask you a question: how do you mechanically define a fakeout, lets assume a fakeout short candle? I was reading a few posts and curiosity struck, as in my head fakeout could mean different things ; )

  • convictscott

    You have just struck on the central problem of any technical analysis with a subjective component. Obviously log scale and normal scale give DRASTICALLY different results.

    The validity of a channel or trendline depends on how well the MARKET respects it. My own opinion on anything is worse than useless. If you can see evidence that the market… was in a strong downtrend, and then that downtrend weakened into a channel… AND then that the channel boundaries are clearly respected by buyers and sellers, with the market vacuuming to support/resistance AND reversing hard AND with bullish setups working off the lower channel boundary AND vice versa then you have quite a lot of evidence. For instance once trendlines have 4 perfect touches that are obvious I start paying attention to them.

    Think about it logically. Knowing what we do about markets and how complicated they are – do you really think a 5 year old with a crayon could predict future prices? What would be the scientific basis for buyers and sellers behaving this way?

    A channel is a weakening uptrend or weakening downtrend. What it means is that price is going down (for a bear channel) but is going down in a 2 sided fashion, with bulls able to muster enough strength for counter trend rallies.

  • convictscott

    Fakeout is an objective setup. For a sell setup
    1) A spike high (defined as a bar with a lower high preceeding it and a lower high after it)
    2) A second bar which breaks that spike high in (1) for the first time
    3) The setup is complete. You go short when price confirms your view by breaking the low of the bar in (2) with a stop 1 tick above the high in 2.

  • convictscott

    There is a reasonable probability that the failed-rtv setup from “how to trap a bear” is going to be triggered in AUDUSD

  • Pervergence

    Still l GC….seems like forever

  • Pervergence

    Still l GC……and it continues

  • Skynard

    Hehehe:)

  • convictscott

    Took a second position long on whip break (after false break to downside) of the 60 min inside period above.

  • convictscott

    Took a second position long on whip break (after false break to downside) of the 60 min inside period above.

  • Skynard

    Waiting for the data in an hour, have a feeling it drops to shake some weak hands. What else is new, right:) Hourly SL @ 42, 25 @ 23. Additionally, we may be on the verge of a equity reversal. Curious how AUD will respond to that. Seems like evening it pulls back and during the day it ramps. Many times the dollar does not even put on pressure. Just to Fuck with the weak.

  • convictscott

    Think you are probably right – my second position looking dodgy this stage

  • convictscott

    450tick chart tells the short term story nicely

  • Skynard

    Yep!

  • convictscott

    on the bright side this crappy action has gone on for a few hours – breakout should be tradeable either way

  • Schwerepunkt

    Tank on the AUD. Bad CPI. But not THAT bad. What a fokover of the shorts. BIG spike down then a recovery.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Tank on the AUD. Bad CPI. But not THAT bad. What a fokover of the shorts. BIG spike down then a recovery.

  • convictscott

    Shake out the weak hands you said?

  • Skynard

    Got long and that MF

  • convictscott

    Oh thats NASTY!

  • newbfxtrader

    Standard procedure.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, got long now

  • Schwerepunkt

    50-pips down and 50-pips up. All stops taken out.

  • newbfxtrader

    Thats the plan. Standard procedure for Aussie news also China news.

  • newbfxtrader

    Like I said before. Standard procedure!

  • Skynard

    Ya, CNY up next .

  • Schwerepunkt

    Makes it a bit hard to place a stop ahead of the news.

  • newbfxtrader

    Dont put stops. Use a limit buy order 50-100 pips away.

  • convictscott

    Me too!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Seriously?

  • newbfxtrader

    Easy money. Like Scott said the plan was to trap the bears.

  • Skynard

    Looks like the dollar will get crushed with equities.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Very funny. Flash manufacturing should now kill those new longs.

  • convictscott

    holy whipsaw batman!

  • newbfxtrader

    Weak PMI

  • convictscott

    well THAT theory sucked!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yellow spooge on the wallabies. LOL.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Scott does an hourly candle like that stop a trend?

  • convictscott

    Well we aren’t in a trend. On the daily charts we have a breakout from a trading range. Either the breakout is valid and we shoot to the upside OR we have a surprise fuckyou to the bulls.

    More accurately on the smaller timeframes we have a massive range OUTSIDE PERIOD. What that means is literally “longs got fucked AND shorts got fucked”

    Right now the vast majority of traders have joined the game in the last 5 minutes. The question you should be asking yourself is “how does these new participants change things?” New participants are weak hands – they jump at the first sign of trouble. Their stops are closer because they are shorter term players.

    A big candle like this changes everything.

  • newbfxtrader

    China news > Aussie news….

  • Skynard

    Remaining long, AUD has already shown her cards. Dollar is going to the dogs now. Was contiplating going short before CNY. Now that MF bus is empty:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    I think the counter-trend AUD relief rally ends here. Big volume on that candle too, but for confirmation we need a close below.92216 on the daily tomorrow.

  • convictscott

    Way way way too early to come to any conclusions. We have either a tug of war at a trendline or a false breakout.

  • convictscott

    I remain long also. Not because of my opinion, but because I went long .9235 with a stop .91535. My rules tell me not to fuck with a position until it has made 1R or 3 periods have expired.

    My rules tell me I have to sit on my hands 🙂

  • Skynard

    Absolutely, that hourly SL at 42 needs broken to the upside now.

  • sburtt

    Thanks

  • convictscott

    I sincerely hope you are joking 🙂 Unless you know your risk you cannot calculate appropriate position sizing

  • convictscott

    Another AUD long attempt (still long on the daily)

  • convictscott

    that didn’t work very well ;-(

  • Dyellowflash

    Be persistent. I am long Aud/Jap from 92.1 and 92. 0fx does not support the down move so far, so probably worth a punt.

  • Dyellowflash

    for better or worse, my third order (the real gamer) at 91.9 missed by a hair.

  • Skynard

    She is a bitch, if we recover the 100 hourly .9180 will hold.

  • convictscott

    Feels like bias – time to step away 🙂

  • Skynard

    Not sure what is up, Yen is down.

  • sburtt

    watch out for the key reversal down on daily chart, that might be powerful and med-term bearish

  • sburtt

    chart attached

  • convictscott

    You want to wait for the end of the day before calling it a KRd, otherwise you are comparing 24 hr candles with the most recent candle being only 12 Hrs. Though I agree, at this stage looks the highest probability outcome

  • sburtt

    I know u don’t like news, but the crappy flash China PMI is weighing on Aussie, at this point it’s wise to keep an eye on px action in commodities too

  • Dyellowflash

    yeah, TP-ed the 2 trackers for about 20+ pips. AJ is still way below the day’s open and i dont wish to overstay my welcome 😉

  • Bun Dance Kid

    AUDUSD making effort to push back above 100MA.

  • convictscott

    Actually whats weighing on the Aussie is that more traders are selling than buying 🙂 Trading off interpretation off news is a rabbit hole you just don’t wanna look down

  • newbfxtrader

    Its so difficult not to think like that. You see the news and the then see the price react. The daily aud/usd candle promise of lower lows?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I see a pre-market SPX print of 1699.9. So close to a round number. Gotta think they’ll tap that sucker.

  • newbfxtrader

    Shes running on fumes Captain!….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m not seeing any ST setups this morning. Will skip this morning’s post but chime in a bit later.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t know why but it looks evil – very old school styling 🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD spike out of nowhere. Did I miss something?

  • newbfxtrader

    Not sure.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    You will find that movements never come out of nowhere … at least with the knowledge of the Language of the Market … and the 12 setups that are part of my arsenal … 60 m EurUsd was a RTV sell that morphed into a FO sell … 30 m EurUsd was a FO sell that morphed into a second FO sell … all hidden in plain view.
    EDIT: + 1R already achieved on the sell side.

  • newbfxtrader

    Thx Ivan Looking forward to trading your setups.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Welcome and to be clear … they are a ‘simplified subset’ of my arsenal.

  • sburtt

    if you have time could you post a chart? I was watching the 60m rtvs pattern but it looks to me it failed, not sure i see the fake out your talking about

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    IF you guys are interested in learning more about Ivan’s setups there’s no better way than going directly to the source. Scott has become the trader that he is under Ivan’s tutelage.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Three up votes for me shutting up? LOL 🙂

  • Dyellowflash

    NQ going pretty strong so far. Been shorting YM during the pre-mkt spikes. Going to TP soon and chill unless 0 got good stuffs coming. Had a ragged day shorting eurusd and long audjap – long hrs and little gains :@

  • newbfxtrader

    I hear ya. But baby steps…..

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, nasty day me thinks:) How about the ZL!

  • newbfxtrader

    Time for a BRD?

  • Ronebadger

    3 votes for not bugging you about a new post, I believe…

  • Ronebadger

    BRD?

  • newbfxtrader

    Heh Big Red Down!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    rising trend. ;-D

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    It could be massive!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Schwerepunkt

    FWIW: Rumors/spec of impending German sovereign debt downgrade.

  • Dyellowflash

    Cleared off shorts, took the third mole arrow, long ym for a scalp and see what happens.

  • ridingwaves

    they’re alright, Indy gave them back the Ark of the Covenant….auction it off to some rich arab….

  • Dyellowflash

    TP-ed and off. Only 1 out of 3 orders got filled, really not worth the mental strength to hang around for 1 tracker. Happy with EurUsd and AudJap trades for the day. GG.

  • sburtt

    a few chartbook setups in commodities panning out, if this continues usd strength in fx might follow

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    for any of the romantics, I think we have a few lady lurkers out there.
    I hope i’m not being spurious.

    http://s23.postimg.org/vf9uliukb/train.png

  • SS_JJ

    Just signing in. I took a break from the bonds play for now and prefer to focus on PMs.

  • Skynard

    Go red team:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ve been a busy bee this afternoon. Here’s how you can receive free SMS alerts for Crazy.Ivan:

    http://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=37006#sms

    Have fun!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I love his charts – so clean and evil.

  • amokta

    Ok, bit of red on SPX.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What do you call this style – Commodore 64? 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did any of you guys take that NQ entry yesterday?

  • Ronebadger

    yes, and SPX

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My man!

  • sburtt

    haha nice one!
    I try to use neutral colors to not get biased.. i’m like a bull .. if i see red i go nuts

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, we’ll keep those running for a while before we add more rules.

  • newbfxtrader

    Its like black and white photography. Elegant.

  • Ronebadger

    I know I have to call them, but what SHOULD be the procedure for my broker (Fidelity) filling a cancelled order? I cancelled a stop loss, and it was later filled…now it’s racing higher.

  • Skynard

    yes,

  • newbfxtrader

    You know Skys all over it!

  • Dyellowflash

    Yes – triple filled pre-mkt as stated, TP-ed at the previous bottom 😉

  • SS_JJ

    Seems we have a positive div on 5 min ZL. I’m BTD.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    bad break, i’ve had it go in my favor. canceled order, got filled, profit.

    until your order is cancelled Verified, your @ss is in sling.
    “Cancel Verified – This is an order status indicating that a request you placed to cancel an open mutual fund order has successfully executed and the order is canceled.”

  • Skynard

    Those dollar safe havens will get slaughtered as well. Buyer AUD, NZD:)

  • Ronebadger

    I have a copy of my account screen that says Verified Cancelled … AND … FILLED. I have to call them when I get a chance today.

  • Ronebadger

    isn’t it a trend day?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Crazy Ivan must have taken his meds today. Still waiting on that EUR signal. I thought we might get one on this latest hourly close.

  • SS_JJ

    just got stopped 🙁

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    My Bull friend says this 7 pt pull back is temporary.
    isn’t denial a wonderful thing?
    😉

  • newbfxtrader

    Hes been right for 4 years…..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dam it, go and throw a wet towel on me.
    he he

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol. Could be a buy the dip opportunity. Question is how big is the dip?!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    let me know the outcome, i’m very curious.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    10 or 50 pts.
    (poker face)
    😉

  • SS_JJ

    looks like the next stop could be the 100 H sma on SPX

  • newbfxtrader

    They both fell with the SPY rallying. You think that could reverse?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Based on?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Not referring to you but the bundle of code. I’m just getting a little impatient and EUR is dropping.

  • ridingwaves

    Opex on metals tomm. That’s why I sold 3/4 out on miners yesterday. They love to setup the bulls before…jumping back in friday morning

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    My approach does not chase … one RBT has been quietly short for about 90 mins … way before ‘Eur is dropping’.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I’ve received an alert but not the actionable signal that was to follow.

  • newbfxtrader

    Breach of IP to the downside 2 hourly candles back?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    No idea … I walk a different path as my unique RBT is just that.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Negative

  • Skynard

    Dollar sellers here 82.5, if it moves higher it means we have something else going on and will flip.

  • Pervergence

    Flipped my GC position as prescribed….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    UUP bounced of 22.20, and is trying to fill gap from few days ago.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    my L*rd, you’ve turned into a machine.
    😉

  • SS_JJ

    I have added some more S-T long on the retest of the daily acceleration line:

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, this could get much uglier, see that gap on the hourly?:) Piled back on @ 81.5 /ES, res @ 82 stop at 84.

  • sburtt

    this is one of my favorite candle patterns, like to call it BRC (BullRapeCandle), 3 little Indians followed by KRd..

  • http://www.yepi8.org/ yepi 8

    I will always keep calm